Got Gold?

- I can see clearly now the rain is gone                                                                                                            I can see all obstacles in my way                                                                                                                  Gone are the dark clouds that had me blind                                                                                                  It's gonna be a bright, bright sun shiny day

- Johnny Nash

Gold is Golden😍

Back in July the daily gold chart had a three black crows formation. This is a dark cloud. Very negative for price. At the time we were going to do a piece on the precious metal. We stated why we did not. We wanted to wait to view the weekly and monthly chart. Gold did retreat for a few sessions, but buyers appeared to buy the dip. Resistance and support formed around $3250. By the way, we do not like to toot our horn because if we are wrong on recommendations, we feel pain. However, all our Fibonacci calls on the metals have hit their target. Yea!

That was yesterday. Today, gold broke-out higher and it hit a new record. It's buddy, silver also broke-out and sits above $42 last Friday. The two precious metals had strong volume. This is very nice. We stated last January that two factors and indicators needed to be met. One is King Dollar. It had to fall. It did. The other was the GDX. We actually mentioned it in January 2024. We stated that it needed to pierce $35. It did, but failed to hold price. So, we repeated the two. 

The GDX sat at $35 in January and it rose to challenge the high of 2024. It not only beached it, it broke-out. It has been non-stop on an up channel line. It closed last Friday at $69.75. There's more. The two gold indexes, the XAU and HUI are like Elton John singing, "Harmony."

💪XAU and HUI

The two look alike in their channel line. The XAU was $140 in January and closed at $272 on Friday. The HUI was $277 in January and closed ar $559 on Friday. WOW!

There's More

Bank of America sees more investment in gold. They feel that gold will average over $4000 in the second half of 2026.

"Everybody's Talking About Rate Cuts Now..."

We expect a quarter point rate cut later today. We feel there will be a pullback in the metals after the cut. We also told you that we expect a market pullback too. If this happens, it would be your opportunity to buy gold or load up the truck. The three mining stocks that we like all are trending higher. Newmont (NEM) could retreat to $67, but after that, we see $91. Barrick (B) could fall to $24, but after that, we see $34. Alamos (AGI) could slip to $28, but after that, we see $37. Yay! 

Other Factors

There are many, but we will conscentrate like a blond reading the orange juice container. Peter Krauth reminds us that the poor man's gold is facing a double squeeze. Silver has been in a supply shortage for years. The demand is being met with recycled silver. This is limited. The other demand on silver comes from its industrial use. Solar needs silver. Peter says the push for AI data centers is extremely high. The problem is these centers are being built in dry, open areas. The electric grids in these areas cannot cover domestic needs and this new business need. The firms are building their own solar farms to get power. Another reason for this choice is zoning permits are easier to get with solar. The demand for silver could push the poor man to millionaire status at over $100 per ounce. Double Yea!! Peace.

Market Signs

- A high tide lifts all boats, and a low tide ditches everything. 

- Market Proverb

Change of Plans

We were going to revisit the precious metals this week as we felt the monthly chart would reveal a clearer picture going forward. The three black crows at the end of July got us nervous. Gold did drop below $3300, but the stronger fundamentals along with the calendar cycle overcame the short correction. The monthly chart ended positive. The drop was a head fake. No follow through and mostly, no volume. The slightly positive channel line had a breakout and gold set a new record high. YAY!

With that said, our other call on the market is bearing fruit in the harvest season. We told you that even though the bulls have kept market breath positive, the indicators that we watch gave us the warnng. 

Another Wall St. saying, "The market elevator rises with stops along the way up, but when it goes down, it is an express." You can easily see this if you chart with volume. Even though the market hit new highs in the S&P, Dow and NASDAQ, the volume kept dropping. It is like a retail store. You are selling product, but you have less and less customers. You know this is not a good sign. Then on down days, the volume is very strong. Can you see what we see?

 Last Friday

The Dow closed with a dark cloud candelstick on the daily chart. A short term bearish sign. We looked at the weekly. It was worse. A bearish engulfing candelstick. This is very negative. 

The S&P is totaly bearish in the daily and weekly chart. It had a bearish engulfing on both charts. Keep in mind that according to Dow Theory for a true rally all three indexes must be in harmony. The transports have never rallied or set a new high. 

Conclusion

The calendar is in its worst month for the market. The first day and week were down days on big volume. We see continuing inflation in food. Oil has been in a consolidation, but a better picture comes from Conoco-Phillips. They announced the layoff of workers between 20% and 25%. Not good. It people get on the elevator going down, it moves quickly. Like the wisdom of the opening thought, everything will fall, even gold. One reason is investors will sell their profits in the precious metals to cover their margin calls. It could be a gift to load up or enter into quality miners like Barrick, Newmont and Alamos gold...Peace.

Sea of Darkness

- My whole heart keeps tellin' me - there ain't no kid at thirty-three - Play around, you lose your wife        You play too long, you lose your life. I got my pills to ease the pain - Can't find a thing to ease the rain.

   Some got to win, some got to lose - Good time Charlie's got the blue.

- Danny O'Keefe

Evil Wax: Lava Over the Mind

It might have germinated with a study at MIT in 1972. It predicted that society will collapse by 2040. The causes will be driven by excess pushing for economic growth, social unrest and the politics of failing governments. We read and see signs everywhere. Then, we read a new report by the World Economic Forum that predicts in 2030 that individuals will own nothing. You have tokens for wealth. 

We do not place too much recognition into any One World platform, but there is no pill to ease the pain of how young people act and act out. The kid that shot innocent kids and people attending mass, screams that our educational system needs an overhaul. It needs strong mental help programs. I do not need to hear a half-truth why this boy did it. I can figure it out. As a child, he did not get along with boys his age. When he hung around the girls, they thought he was weird. He went from Robert to Robin and he still was unhappy. He needed help when he was young. Our system does not provide it, but we offer weapons for protection. Television floods our eyes with violent shows. Our ears are waxed as well as our minds.

Failure To Admit Being Wrong

It is everywhere, but it began when money bought government. JP Morgan got Congress and President Wilson to sign into law, the Federal Reserve. Since it started, our standard of living has constantly fell, our puchasing power in the dollar fell and our wealth gap grew. 

Social Capitalist is being pushed because our so-called free market capitalism won't step up to the plate in these uncertain times. President Trump is right to protect Intel. Chips are needed for everything in this society. This is not new. President Carter bailed-out Chrysler in 1979 to stabilize the economy and prevent the loss of jobs. Fortunately, the late great Lee Iacocca was there. Today, we got the greedy idiots like at Boeing. Lee turned the company around and he paid off the loan. My question? What happens if the firm cannot repay the loan? Socialist governments have wealth funds along with other options to invest, innovate and save jobs. President Trump is going this route. 

One way to help is tariffs and protectionism. In a world that uses government protection and assisance, they are not practicing free market principles. They are using socialism and our roots is capitalism. We have a failure to admit the global trading system is unfair. It is one reason why we lose - every year.   

We always say if an idea is good, it does not matter where or who it came from. The idea for Social Security actually came from an aristocrat, Chancellor Bismarck. We think it is an excellent concept. He gave us the term "social welfare." However, someone will push the envelope. We get socialism. The Communists have developed their own brand of socialism. With complete control over everything, they can target any occupation. You can see the effects with EVs. They have flooded the market to control it like with batteries, earth minerals and a host of other industries. Over the years, some members of Congress realized this danger and they acted to protect our agriculture. We band-aided the problem with subsidies. We have swayed away from our free market ways. We have failed to admit the truth and to act accordingly. Again, the root is the destruction of the dollar by printing and the failure of government to look out for its citizens and only help the rich.

What Now?

The "Genius Act" is law. It is laying the foundation for a reset in curency and its use. The stablecoin will be pushed. They are seeking away to repay the $37 trillion in debt. Again, they are looking out for the rich and not facing the truth. If you did not notice that at 3:00 last Friday, the treasury announced that foreign buyers of our debt declined by another $300 billion. Then, we read a report by Mark Zandi, an economist who generally favors the establishment. He says, "That one-third of states are in a recession, another third are threading water and onlt one-third are growing." He added, "55% of industry were cutting jobs, only health care were adding help." They are carching up to what we labeled. "Stealth Recession."

Bitcoin miners understand. They are leveraging their stock share price. They are borrowing on it to buy more. This is a dangerous speculation. If people shift their investments to gold for example, these miners will impolde. On the flip side, did anyone question the timing of the Genius Act to Trump's sons? The two brothers have invested in American Bitcoin and we read that they plan to be trading it in September? They did and now, they join the billionaire club. We will look further into this "fake money" in a future piece.

Another Dust Candidate

Spirit Airlines is back in bankruptcy court. The US debt limit is coming around. What bankruptcy court handles that? The only good note is that I'm still able to hear some blues through the wax buildup. ...Peace

Odds and Ends: August 2025

- History may not repeat, but it sure rhymes.

- Mark Twain / John Colombo

No truer words

The moment our last article was published on Google about the strange connection between market downturns and fraud, we read the following story. New York exposed crimes associated with food stamps (SNAP). One government employee working with five EBT terminals worked to steal over $66 million in the supplemental nutrition assistance program. These terminals connect to stores that accept the food stamps. The thieves altered application documents and used the EBT terimals to connect to unauthorized stores and other ways to grab over $66 million from poor people who need this help. From the info, we feel more crooks will be arrested. Good work! 

New Idea

This is wild and crazy stuff. A Swiss startup, Enerdrape is using panels with their formula that collects heat. They can use the heat for winter to warm a building or store the heat to keep the structure cooler in summer. They specialize in developing subway space or older, mutifamily dwellings. It works like a heat pump. It is expensive to install, but it can lower the hourly rate of electricity from 17-cents to 03-cents. 

Not Everyone...

is onboard to green energy. President Trump is anti-wind because he does not like its look and solar. We do not know why he is against this excellent energy source, but he has directed the Department of Agriculture to stop giving farm owners permits to install wind or solar on their farms. Trump may be for oil, but we feel there is room on the energy pie for all sources. We need all the energy that we can get. Alternative sources of energy are not only cleaner, but its cost comes down with use and innovation. Germany is a cold climate nation and it still gets over 15% of its energy from solar. Consider it only received less than 2% in 2010. We need to use the sun. It helps in so many ways.

Old Ego

It didn't take long for the ego of Fed Chairman, Powell to adjust his thinking on interest rates. His Jackson Hole speech is basically asking to keep his job by going along with Trump's views. So much for the so-called independence of the Fed. By the way, it never is independent. Chairman are appointed because they share the views of the appointee - just like the Supreme Court. We hate it for what it is, a backup for the rich and banking. It destroys the value of money and our standard of living by excessive printing. We say, "End the Fed!" 

Connected

The talk on interest rates centers on inflation. We told you that it is not going away. We expect another wave to hit our shore. Well, Powell says he wants a 2% target on inflation and he has not met that goal. We predict that the target rate will be adjusted to 3%. With that said, we ask you to look at the price of McDonalds Big Mac. Not only do we worry about the price, but whether is the burger still real meat or that vegetarian, lab crap? Anyway, the price for the Big Mac Meal is a whopping (Fun pun with competition) $14.39. Yikes!  

Job Hunting

Risk management and assessment for the insurance industry will be a growing opportunity, especially with global hacking and climate dissaster that is connected to litigation. Something to consider?  

In a related aspect of employment, we offer a shoutout to newly ordained Maryknoll priest, Fr. Matthew Sim from Singapore. His unheralded work will be in Taiwan. We wish him well in the potentially dangerous assignment. He has special parents who flew halfway around the world to attend his ordination. We take comfort in realizng His wish is fulfilled, "To teach all nations."   Peace. 

Strange Pattern

- We become what we love and who we love shapes what we become.

- St. Clare of Assisi

Change in Plans

Sebastian planned to write about gold and precious metals this week, however with recent price action, he shifted gears. He saw three black crows in the daily chart. This is very negative, but gold and silver acted more like a consolidation pattern. The monthly chart will give a clearer picture. The calendar cycle says this is the best time for the precious metals until next February. It starts in India and spreads around the world. Patience is the word.

Meanwhile...

We noticed a stange, similar pattern that happens in the market. It usually appears just before the economy and market tanks. What is it, you ask? FRAUD. 

Someone will take this observation and write a book on it. Our energy is better served to expose and inform you to make our government more accountable and to promote the general welfare.

Do you recall...Columbia/HCA? Rick Scott was the CEO in 1997 when the Justice Department showed the company cheating Medicare. Almost all of Scott's governing board were convicted of fraud to steal from the government program. Scott claimed he did not know what they were doing and this guy is the CEO? Rick gets off. He becomes governor of Florida with all his pay package. He is now their state senator. Can you see why our government leaves one doubting? Anyway, the big fraud case timed with a down year for the market. By the way, in irony of ironies, Scott today is publically attacking Democrats for medicare fraud.

How about Bernie Madoff? He got caught with his ponzi scheme in 2008. The market crashed. There are many other cases like Enron, World Com, etc. Space limits the cases, but whenever there are serious fraud cases, the market crashes. 

Today

The Bulls are thriving. Records were set in the S&P and Nasdaq. The Dow also hit a new all-time high, but one aspect of a rally is how it appears in foreign currencies? It didn't. The transports are not even close. We told you this does not constitute a rally according to Dow Theory. In addition, the calendar is approaching September, the Dow's worst month. Then, we read about United Health Group (UNH). The Justice Department arrested 374 people associated with the company and another 96 licensed medical professionals for medicare fraud. The stock fell from over $600 to $240. It just bounced to $304. The news does not jive with its price. The estimated damaged caused by this firm is $14.6 billion. 

We see this as one big reason why the two social programs are in stress. Congress needs to investigate the corruption that is taking place and not cut back on this point. 

You can look to almost every nation on the map. Criminal investigations are taking place in S. Korea, Singapore, Brazil, Argentina, China and throughout Africa. Maybe this strange pattern is telling us something?   Peace.  

Sad Truths

- I've been thinking about the time                                                                                                                  You walked out on me                                                                                                                                     there were moments I'd believe you were there                                                                                             Do I miss you, or am I lying to myself again...

- Journey

Time Reveals

We, at Evolution are behind the idea of tariffs to balance our now, one trillion a year deficit with the trading of imports/exports.We have stated this for years. The global community uses domestic laws, currency manipulation and state subsidization to dump goods in America to bolster their economy. They also use tariffs against our products which helps put a surplus in their column. 

When Trump campaigned, he stated that he would invoke tariffs if elected. We feared that he would not use this revenue for needed purposes like our electrical grid, infrastructure or our national deficit. He would use the money as a gift for the rich to which is a staple of Republicans. The GOP stands for Guardians of Property (read wealth). He did. Maybe an ordinary citizen gets to save a few hundred dollars, but the wealthy get six and seven digit savings. His action will put the dollar in a coffin. We predict a financial crisis appears before his term ends.

War-monger

We labeled Netanyahu a war criminal. We showed you how he has repeatedly been opposed to peace with Palestine. He would never recognize it as a state. His time in office has encroach upon Palestine land with settlements. Hamas used this to persuade the Palestine people to elect them into power. Sadly, they are blinded by hate. They are misguided idiots. 

The war gave Netanyahu a means and excuse to enlarge his land grab. His plan to occupy Gaza is proof. His statement to end the process with friendly Arab control is political appeasement. We predict that Netanyahu will want a larger buffer zone and he will use the already taken buffer zone for more settlements with no state recognition. He will say that any new Palestine government needs to prove it will exist in peace with Israel. He will buy time until he can find something to spin. He is a war-monger.

Two Summits

China has called a summit in Shanghai. Brazil, India and Russia will attend. The US and Russia will meet to discuss Ukraine. Dear Reader, the communists have a playbook with conflict. It goes back to when Chinese communists fought Chinese nationalisrs for the country after WWII. World leaders called for peace talks. While table talks take place, the comunists continue to fight. Talk is cheap. Actions is what count. The same thing occurred with the Korean conflict and Viet Nam. The war in Ukraine will continue and although Trump desires peace, it is not right to give away part of Ukraine like what happened with Obama with the Crimean Peninsula. If he does, he had better put in a provision that says if Russia begins conflict again, we will aid Ukraine to fight Russian aggression. This sounds like WWIII, but you have to fight fire with fire. You have to call a spade a spade.

As for the Chinese summit, they will plan to circumvent US tariffs, especially the oil trade. Trump would be wise to work an idea for peace with Taiwan. Have an open election with the question of Taiwan becoming part of China on the ballot? Maybe the idea of a free commonwealth? China appears to be ready for war over the island by 2027 and Trump needs to keep the peace without backing away from our pledge to Taiwan. These are sad truths.  Peace.

Chart Signs

- All that glitters is not gold.

- William Shakespeare

Market and Life Signs

July is historically the second best month for the market after November. It stated with fireworks that ended in a dark, fuzzy, hazy cloud. The Bulls will say the market drop at the end of the month is just a normal correction. They have ammo in the S&P. It is over its 50-day average. Don't be fooled!

The market rally like we stated before never included the Transports. In fact, the transports are below both the 50-day and 200-day average. Chart patterns tell a truer picture. A bearish engulfing candlestick appears on the SPX on the final trading day of July. This says the elevator is going down. We see 6,000 and then, we will check the chart and volume. The Dow has fallen from Tuesday to Friday with volume. We see 42,000. The Transports are looking at 14,200. All three of the indexes have gaps and we see them being filled.

King $Dollar

It always needs to be watched. It rose with trade news. This was a head fake. The dollar hit resistance of 100. Then, on Friday, it also showed a bearish engulfing candlestick. It fell like a rock. We see it testing 96 again with the danger of piercing this support level. All that glitters is not gold.

Gold

Speaking of the precious metal, things are not looking good. Although it rose a lot on Friday, it had the dangerous three black crow pattern prior. This is extremely negative. The rally on Friday could be a head fake?

Last Chance

If we are correct with the three black crows, gold could fall to $2990. This is good news. For those who never got in for whatever reason, this is your chance to acqire some AGI, AEM or B. For those who have mining stocks, don't fret. You made the right call. Now, you can get more on the cheap because $4,000 and more is coming and very soon.

Trump Being Trump

Just like he fired Musk for saying something that he does not like, Trump fired the person at the BLS on Friday for giving a bad report on the economy. Trump also took it to Brazil with a 50% tariff hike for not treating Bolsonaro better. Immediately, large US firms like Exxon and Dow Chemical were on the phone to remind the president how the Brazilian chemical firms are closely connected to US companies. Chart and life signs... Peace.