Oil's Outlook

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Dear Reader, as you know from our pieces, at times we refer to our unpublished book that we feel will help America, and possibly the world. You see that we do not clutter our page with ads. Money is a means and not a goal. We seek to make life better. With that said, our founder, John Lipareli has his first book published - to make a name for himself that could help get his political and economic work a reality. You can buy at Amazon Books. It is called, "The Legend of the Afghan Hound." It is general and family reading. Kids 9 to 15 will love the action adventure as well as pet lovers and history buffs. The sweeping saga begins in ancient Egypt in a time of anxiety and war and ends in Bethlehem with hope and love. Adults will be attracted by the theme of "love in action." By that I mean the sacrifices that we make for each other. It is a Christmas classic and makes an excellent gift. Please, support his work. Thank you.

Oil: 2026

The most important commodity has been in a downtrend since it rose to over $78 last June. At that time, oil was testing its last high of $80 back in January of this year. It failed. It has been in a continuous downtrend. The real danger in its price is if it falls to $50 a barrel. 

Yes, we know that the market prices the commodity in sweet crude (US) and sour (BRENT), but they follow the same pattern. Sweet is the better oil, but less abundant. We use the US crude in our analysis. 

When oil broke resistance at $50 in 2020, it fell all the way to $35. There is a real danger that oil tests $50. Any breach of that level puts the test of $35 back in play. Keep in mind, that two years later, oil rose to touch $125. Needless to say, the history of oil is volatility. You can see this clearly in reviewing the boom and busts of the US economic cycles. 

With this warning, we feel that oil is too valuable with many demands. Third world nations are getting more electricity and they will need oil and gas to produce it. Data centers and their investors make even make their own small energy plants to provide the demands of AI. President Trump has made it his mantra, "Drill, Baby. Drill!" Utilities will need to find funding to add to their grid infrastructure. This may depress their stock price, but if you buy at lows the demand will reward their stock price. This is a good bet, but seek firms that bury their power lines underground. PG&E is in big trouble with lawsuits from wildfires due to their power lines. EVs have put a damper on demand, but the global community is cutting back on climate measures and there is trade conflict with China dumping EV vehicles. The EV revolution will slow. This only helps combustion and oil. 

As you also know we hesitate to offer stock picks, because if we are wrong, we cannot sleep at night. With that said, we venture into three smaller firms with strong fundamentals, good balance sheets and well run companies.

The first is Ovintiv (OVV). It pays a dividend. It just signed a 12-year deal to supply product to a pipeline firm that has access to the new LNG plant that will open in Vancouver in 2028. It has all permits passed. Demand will come from Japan and Asia. The company makes money even with low oil prices. A good entry point would be around $23. Be patient!

The next is Devon (DVN). It also pays a dividend. This company is well run and possibly a merger target. A good entry point if oil continues to slide is $21.

The last firm is in oil services. Borr Drilling (BORR) also pays a dividend. The company expects to lose money all the way into the third quarter of 2026. This allows you to buy at lows. We feel $2.00 is excellent. The company has upgraded its vessel/platforms (12 new) with high demand. We like all three firms. Peace and Merry Christmas!

Golden Cycle

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Dear Reader, as you know from our pieces, at times we refer to our unpublished book that we feel will help America, and possibly the world. You see that we do clutter our page with ads. Money is a means and not a goal. We seek to make life better. With that said, our founder, John Lipareli has his first book published - to make a name for himself that coud help get his political and economic work a reality. You can buy at Amazon Books. It is called, "The Legend of the Afghan Hound." It is general and family reading. Kids 9 to 15 will love the action adventure as well as pet lovers and history buffs. The sweeping saga begins in ancient Egypt in a time of anxiety and war and ends in Bethlehem with hope and love. Adults will be attracted by the theme of "love in action." By that I mean the sacrifices that we make for each other. It is a Christmas classic and makes an excellent gift. Please, support his work. Thank you.

Gold in 2025...

...outperformed the Magnificent 7 and the S&P 500. Who knew? Certainly not Walmart, although Costco sold a lot of gold and silver bars. We rarely mention individual stocks because as we have stated in the past, if we are wrong, we cannot sleep at night. For the firms that we did mention, we were right many more times than we were wrong. If you purchased Alamos Gold (AGI), Barrick Mining (B) or Wheaton Precious Metals, you are doing well. This is another reason why we ask you to spend $12 bucks and buy the "Legend." With that said, we look into the precious metals for 2026.

Gold and Cycles

For new readers, we will repeat how we look at the market. We follow charting, economic cycles and lastly, fundamentals. The chart on gold has exceeded our price projections under Fibonacci. We called for $4100. The volume is strong as the metal made a new all-time high. We read that central banks around the world are buying even at highs. The World Gold Council says that trend should continue. They add that India (2cd largest buyer) is now allowing pension funds to buy up to 5% of gold and silver ETFs. Under cycles, gold has a 12-year range. This cycle trend dates back to 1982. The last negative cycle ended in 2024 and the new, bullish cycle began last year. We have all tailwinds. You can safely buy the dip. We project $5,000 gold in 2026. At that time, we will recheck the charts and volume. The present rally should continue onto the end of January with a pullback and consolation period before we hit our target price. Watch the price action on King $Dollar. It is currently testing support at .98. Any drop only pushes the precious metals higher.

Silver

It has actually outperformed gold. It has made new records almost every month since October. One fundamental reason is the continuous shortfall in the actual metal. Demand exceeds supply. Solar and wind energy keep demand high. Miners cannot keep up with demand. New mines can take 10 years to add to supply. This will cause mergers in the sector.

Then, there was a squeeze on the London Exchange. These type of financial machinations have been used in the past to keep the price low. They can backfire and thus, we see spikes in both metals as well as all commodities.

We suggest that you purchase "junk" silver. This is old coins that contain silver. They will rise in value as silver rises. We see silver testing $84. If it still has volume, then we say take your profits at $100. The only change to this aspect is a global currency crisis. Then, don't sell either precious metal as the world will reevaluate based on global debt and we all will be rich. Yay! That will be a sad day for the already rich as we can sit next to them in restaurants, hotels and concerts. 

Copper

We now include the red metal because the demand will exceed supply. The recent price set a new all-time record in July and we see more of the same. We see $6.50 in 2026 as copper stocks will rise. The present price of copper stocks are too high. A cheaper stock with solid fundamentals is Taseko (TGB). If there is a pullback, $3.50 is a good entry point. We also see mergers in this sector. Data centers will be one of the strong pushes in the metals price. Next week, we will look at oil, the most important commodity. Peace. 

Market Outlook: 2026

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Dear Reader, as you know from our pieces, at times we refer to our unpublished book that we feel will help America, and possibly the world. You also realize that we do not clutter our page with ads. Money is a means and not a goal. We seek to make life better. With that said, our founder, John Lipareli has his first book published - to make a name for himself that could help get his political and economic work a reality. You can buy at Amazon Books. It is called, "The Legend of the Afghan Hound." It is general and family reading. Kids 9 to 15 will love it as well as pet lovers and history buffs. It is a sweeping saga that begins in ancient Egypt in a time of anxiety and war and ends in Bethlehem with hope and love. Adults will be attracted by the theme of "love in action." By that I mean the sacrifices that we make for each other. It is a Christmas classic and makes an excellent gift. Please, support his work. Thank you.    

Important Notes:

The government has always used the market when it is in a rally mode as a reflection of the current administration. The economy is good and that is why the market is up. We say this is over as the two are no longer aligned. Just like we informed you that our economy has been under a "stealth recession" since COVID-19. There has been no media recognition, but you know it is true because all of us struggle with the essentials: food, shelter and energy. Home ownership is unaffordable. Rents eat up to 50% of income. Who buys eggs? Oh yeah, the government does not include the three that you need every day in their phony inflation formula. Citizens are disenfranchised. We blame both political parties as they are both hypocrites.  

You can see this in this year's rally in the market as the true breaking point between the economy and market price. Retail or individual buying no longer moves the market. It is institutions, hedge funds, pensions and big buyers. Who else can afford the risk in the Magnificent -7? Their PE/ratio is off the charts not to mention their share price is very expensive. However, if you were able to buy some shares, you get taken for a wonderful ride that grows your dollars and gives you some economic breathing room. For the rest of us, if we time things correctly, like with our precious metals, we make a buck once in awhile. We include this Magnificent 7, but we prefer the actual, original movie.

Apple: Price last Friday was $278. It was $200 in August. Non-stop money in the bank.                            Amazon: Price was $229 last Friday. It was $165 in April.                                                                          Meta: Price closed at $673 last Friday. It was $480 last April.                                                                      Nvidia: Price was $90 last April and closed at $182 on Friday.                                                                    Google: Pric was $150 last April and $322 on Friday.                                                                                  Microsoft: Price was $350 last April and $483 on Friday.                                                                            Tesla: Price was $220 last April and even with the pullback was $455 last Friday. MONEY, MONEY, MONEY!!!!                                                                            

Recently, we have seen strong market pullbacks. The various points that we present from week to week are beginning to grab attention: layoffs, store closings, auto delinquencies and credit card debt. The ups and downs of the two wars are still not settled. Some of the big boys have noticed, but they have begun distribution. They are moving into AI, data centers and the infrastructure to supply the other two. They have a government that rewards them with tax breaks that fool the general public. Our debt is growing beyond our ability to repay it? They care less. They see the game as never ending. They see pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. The Fed "put" is back in their pocket. Their Christmas stocking is full of all their wishes. This market will rally into the new year. It will be some time in February when Christmas help is laid off that a new reality may see the light of day. As for now, the market and its price bears no reflection to your individual, economic struggles, the people of Ukraine or Gaza and whether you have a stocking and a wish sandwich. You know, you have two pieces of bread and you wish you had something to put in it.  Peace.

Santa Rally and the Market

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Dear Reader, as you know from our pieces, we refer to our unpublished book that we feel will help America, and possibly the world. You also realize that we do not clutter our page with ads. Money is a means and not a goal. We seek to make life better. With that said, our founder, John Lipareli has his first book published - to make a name for himself that could help get his political and economic work a reality. You can buy at Amazon Books. It is called, "The Legend of the Afghan Hound." It is general and family reading. Kids 9 to 15 will love it as well as pet lovers and history buffs. It is a sweeping saga that begins in ancient Egypt in a time of anxiety and war and ends in Bethlehem with hope and love. The story weaves the theme of "love in action." By that I mean the sacrifices that we make for each other. It is a Christmas classic and makes an excellent gift. Please support his work. Thank you.

- All things are connected.

- JFLs unpublished work, "The Evolution of Democracy: The Book of Multiple Ideas and Predictions."

Santa Claus Rally

This is a historical belief and has a trend to back the faith. The stats show that from 75% to 80% of the time, the market rises. What many do not know is the time period. It is not "before" Christmas, but the last five trading days of December and it includes the first two trading days of January. 

This time schedule overlaps another highly followed belief, the January Barometer. The time period of this thinking which many are convinced, calls for the entire first month in time. It mainly points to the S&P 500. If for the entire month, the index is up and ends positive, this says the entire year will be positive for trading. Conversely, if the trend is negative and ends downward, this says it will be a poor year for trading.

Fed Meeting  

The decision on the 10th of December will have a direct impact for the remaing month and the two hypothesis above. At present, the market believes a rate cut is coming. We already told you that people are jockeying for the chair title, including the present chairman who also wants to retain the job. We know President Trump changes his thinking from day-to-day. The decision and who voted which way will influence the president's choice. Powell's term ends on May 15th 2026.

Meanwhile...

We see King $Dollar staying strong as it bounces around .99 to 100. If there is a rate cut, it should fall. The first resistance is .98 and then, .96. The precious metals could attack its last high. They have also stayed strong despite a strong dollar. 

If you look closely at the market, there is distribution taken place. Many firms are falling sharply. The charts of Target (TGT), Costco (COST) and Comcast (CMCSA) are all scary. 

If you look at the economy, job losses are announced every week. The latest is Hewlett-Packard (HP) who are cutting 4,000 jobs. Then, we have internal problems with our utility sector. Data centers are eating electricity. This is raising the costs for energy in regions where new locations are being built or operating. Patrick Donnelly, a senior at the Institute of Engineering says, "Data centers are like the electrical needs of 10,000 homes." We say, "Peace."

 

Odds and Ends: November 2025

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Dear Reader, as you know from our pieces, we refer to our unpublished book that we feel will help America, and possibly the world. You also realize that we do not clutter our page with ads. Money is a means and not a goal. We seek to make life better. With that said, our founder, John Lipareli has his first book published - to make a name for himself that could help get his political and economic work published. You can buy at Amazon Books. It is called, "The Legend of the Afghan Hound." It is family reading and great for ages 9 to 15, pet lovers and history buffs. It is a sweeping saga that begins in ancient Egypt in a time of anxiety and war and ends in Bethlehem with hope and love. The story weaves a theme of love in action to which many times means sacrifice. It is a Christmas classic and makes an excellent gift. - Please support his work. Thank you.

- Faith is the antidote for fear. The anodyne for doubt.

- Clay Harrison

Much Ado About Nothing

Sadly, the two most important nations, the US and China sent no one to the COP30 in Brazil. Brazilian president, Lula tried to play the mediator between those two economies as well as others who produce oil and climate nations seeking a change to protect our world. The Brazil forest fund is a wonderful idea, but backing oil production at the same time reveals the conflict to change and to not hurt your economy. A fire in a connecting hall did not help with the mood. Good news. No one was hurt. 

We feel that the photo shoots were more for public image and appearances. They did however show that multilateralism continues through the challenges like the four year presidential cycle in the US, like China only using these summits as a vehicle to sell their wind and solar products. Brazil fell short with its forest/climate bond, but it did attract $6 billion. Credit was given to indigenous people who are stewards of land and forests. There was extensive talks about climate funding, but it was pushed back in the time horizon to 2035. Talks of roadmaps to end "fossil fuel" is just that, talk.

Bottom line: Climate plans remain to weak for real change. 

Meanwhile...

At the same time a G-20 meeting was taken place in Johannesburg, Africa. It had no effect other than tourists dollars for the host nation. 

In the US, Fed governor, Chris Waller continued his campaign to be the Fed Chair by calling for another rate cut. This is music to Trump's ear. King $Dollar is attempting to retake the crown that it has seen some obstacles lately to its 100 year duration. Gold and silver somehow have remained strong even with a stronger dollar. The market should rally for our national holiday with big money. They hope to persuade everyone that the Christmas rally is coming and forget the recent downturn. We see no volume in the upswing and that means no conviction.

We only wish everyone a pleasant Thanksgiving Day and peace. In addition, we add and request of you to say a prayer for the people in the Hong Kong skyscraper fire. Thank you.

Conflicted With Doubt

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Dear Reader, as you know in our pieces we referred to our unpublished work that we feel will help America and possibly the world. You also realize that we do not clutter our page with ads. We are not into money, but to try to help make life better. With that said, our founder, John Lipareli has his first book published, to make a name for himself that could help get his political and economic work published. You can buy at Amazon Books. It is called, "The Legend of the Afghan Hound." It is family reading and best for ages 9 to 15, pet lovers and history buffs. It is a sweeping saga that begins in ancient Egypt in a time of anxiety and war and ends in Bethlehem with hope and love. The story personifies love in action to which many times calls for sacrifice. Please support his work. Thank you.

- Keep your face toward the sunshine and shadows will fall behind you.

- Walt Whitman

Then and Now

If old Walt were living today, the sky would be overcast. How can you find a ray of sunshine when our two political parties lie about everything. The Democrats fought for the Obama credits for health care because they know ordinary people cannot afford it. The health care plan has a provision saying that if you do not have medical insurance, you are in violation. You can be fined and more. They keep that info out of the news.

The Republicans used the opportunity to cover reports that show over 1.1 million people this year lost their job. No government reports. Some news is news even with manipulation.

The Democrats said the Republicans were dishonest to hold the nation and its government in exile for the debt ceiling during the Biden administration, only to act the same way during this Republican administration. 

One day President Trump puts high tariffs on a nation, and the next, changes tune. The TACO president is a label that means "Trump Always Chickens Out." In any case, we, as citizens, cannot believe what either party says. Of course, we get clues. How about this one?

Scott Bissent...

...Secretary of the Teasury stated, "There are sectors of the economy that are in recession." It is a good thing that he does not work at Verizon. They dropped 15,000 workers. How about Wendy's? They are closing 300 outlets. If that makes you hungry, don't think Sizzler. Why, you ask? The location that you knew may be closed along with 599 other sites. You may decide to move or check out another city or region to find employment. Be careful! The government shutdown has effected air-traffic controlers.  Flying can be dangerous right now. The government or the transportation secretary had the good sense to cut flights in the busiest 40 airports. Of course, the Republicans used the opportunity to hand out $10,000 in bonus money to TSA airport help. Did they really work without pay? Yes, for the shutdown duration, but they knew once the government would re-open, they would be paid for all hours worked. This is BS! It is a phony feel-good story. All government had people fall into the same situation. 

Meanwhile...

Twenty banks cough up $20 billion to Oracle for data centers with the understanding that the loan will be repaid in 4-years. We, at Evolution don't think so? So, you think. You could drive? Maybe take a short cruise to clear your head before you make a decision? Well, good news. The cruise lines are offering big discounts. You can see the charts of RCL and CCL. The two have declined sharply. We read a report from Las Vegas that stated hotels had 90,000 vacant rooms during their busy season. 

Bottom line: All this info could leave you to be conflicted with doubt. We understand. We are your neighbors. Peace.

Climate and Other Problems.

- President Trump calls "Climate Change" a hoax. He believes if you look out the window, you will get     all the info that you need about the weather.

- Sebastian

JFL..

...believes that the environmentalst have overreacted. Even though he supports the Sierra Club, he does not agree with all their views. We need to cut trees to thin the threat of wildfires. Logging provides job. Trees lower the cost of housing, furniture and energy. It is renewable. In climate, setting a goal like alternative energy is a plus. A complete cutback on fossil fuel is stupid and disruptive to both society and a nation's economy. These zionists for climate need to study their Greek. A transition period is needed for change. With that said, Brazil hosts a summit that began on Monday for climate change.

COP 30

The French with their Paris Accord get a lot of credit. Europe has carried the ball. The Scandinavian countries stand out, especially in supporting funds for better technology in oil to capture CO2. Brazil deserves a lot of recognition for their bond that supports forests. We see positive results throughout the world like solar rooftops in Poland, electric vehicles in Asia, newer style nuclear reactors in China, solar farms in Columbia and SW America as well as Germany, a cold weather nation getting 15% of its energy from alternative sources. Congrats to all. With that said, we do not see any new pluses from the latest summit in Brazil. How can it? The two largest populations boycotted and the two largest economies also boycotted it. Neverthelees, we wish them well.

Meanwhile...

...for some unknown reason, King $Dollar is in an uptrend. We see resistance at $101, but the rise counters all common sense. The Federal Reserve is cutting rates which lowers the dollar's appeal. In addition, the Fed has quietly resumed QE. This increases our debt and basically, resumes the playbook cycle of debt and money printing. The BRICKS are still out there with there opposition to the dollar in global trading. Our government is not functioning and debt for the current year will add another $1.7 trillion to the already mind blowing $38 trillion on the books.The Shiller CAPE ration is at highs and he said that he sees a decline in the S&P 500 for the next ten years. He is not alone.

Economist EJ Antoni

Ever hear of him? He was once a shoe-in for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). His problem is that he has a conscience. He tells it like it is. He will not be appointed during President Trump's administration. He says, "Since 2022, the BLS has used flawed models which hides weakness in the economy." He believes concumers are "tapped out." He feels the Federal Reserve is caught between a rock and a hard place. They never reached their 2% inflation target and now, they have begun lowering rates. He adds, "The US government with all its overspending, is the root cause of our economic problems and a debt reckoning is coming." Ray Dalio, the billionaire investor agrees. And yet, the dollar is getting stronger. Go figure? Peace.