Odds and Ends: July 2025

- It always seems impossible until it is done.

- Nelson Mandela

Things A Happening

The Fed meets later today. We cannot perceive the results. Consensus says no change. Ego and appeasement could sway chairman Powell to offer a quarter point rate cut. Based on what we see, inflation will hit with another wave. The on again, off again tariffs will finally come into play. Tariffs on aluminium will raise the price of any canned goods like food, beer and soda. Poor crop harvest on cocoa and coffee will add to price inflation. All the above and other situations will cause labor to seek pay increases. An inflationary wave is building.

Good, Bad and Ugly

The good comes from China in undertaking a new eighth wonder of the world. They are going to build the largest dam in the world. It will probably cost more than the projected $167B. It will provide clean hydro power from Tibet. We wish them well. 

The bad never changes as Chinese hackers, labeled 3886 hit various firms like Microsoft's new sharing platform. They also attacked Singapore's infrastructure. Sometimes these attacks are tests. If a crisis like a war happens, this will be a new form of warfare.

Ugly tariff. With just a token 15% on Japanese autos, US car makers cry foul. They still have to pay higher prices for imported tariff items. We need strong neasures to force producers back into the US.

Seabed Argument

The UN is way to big. By declaring the right to offer licenses to mine the ocean floor, they are taking away sovereign rights of nations. Trump is right to challenge. The only positive is it keeps from escalating conflicts into a dangerous level. Japan has demonstrated a "cool" head by stating it will not process materials until a peaceful plan is adopted.

Something New

Salmon from a lab? Yes! In Seattle, restuarants are offering the fish for dinner. Customers like it. We will give it a try, but we hope the price is reasonable.  Peace.

Nothing To Say

- When you have nothing good to say, say nothing.

- JFLs mother

- Call a spade, a spade.

- JFLs grandfather to his older brother.

What It Means

You learn from experience. You have to put things into perspective. You should think before you act, but follow the principles of God. Easier said than done...

Politics and Politicians

...they have no principles. We, at Evolution are angry at China. However, this does not pertain to the Chinese people. Some nations are angry with America. Again, our government does not reflect the citizens. Trump and Netanyahu announce a cease fire on Gaza. Two days later, the war-monger bombs the only Catholic church in Gaza, killing civilians. He apologizes for the mistake. How many times? He says he will investigate, but never a follow through. He is a war criminal. A spade is a spade.

Trump places a 50% tariff on Brazil. Why, you ask? Because they treat Bolsonaro badly. Then, the Brazilian president allows Bolsonaro to go home with an ankle monitor and curfew. He hopes the appeasement will get a lower tariff. If you have nothing good to say, say nothing at all. 

Speaking of Brazil. The two big members of the BRICS alliance skipped their meeting in Brazil. I guess they had nothing good to say?

Big Boys

They came out swinging for the Fed chief, Powell. Trump says Powell needs to go. The banking cabal loves the chairman because he has their back. One Fed member, Goolsbee defended Powell. However, the political politicians stepped up. Fed member Waller says, "It is time to cut!" Another candidate, Kevin Warsh, an ex-governor at the Fed says, "Fed policy should be tied to the Treasury." We know the treasury is reckless. They print and print. This is inflation. This destroys our standard of living. This self-serving idiot is advocating inflation. Our government does not only not follow the will of the people, but our founders too. 

Meanwhile...

The Bulls say the market rally is back. According to Dow Theory it is not. We read firm after firm, both big and small are laying off people. From Bumble to Del Monte, from Meta to Amazon, and on and on. A rate cut will keep zombie firms operating and politics will keep giving Tik Tock time. (I like that play on words).

Bottom line: A parable from the bible. When a farmer learns that bad seed got into his field, he decides to let it grow with the good, together. If he attempted to remove the bad, he would damage the good. When harvest time comes, he will separate the two. So, live by being good and on judgement day, the bad will get theirs...Peace.

Fiat: Fool's Gold

- We become what we love and who we love shapes what we become.

- St. Clare if Assisi

Recently

We have talked about debt and the serious danger that hovers over our economy and nation because of it. We failed to mention one big reason why the global community has not put the reserve status of the dollar to the front page. There is no good answer. Everyone is playing the monopoly game of money with their fingers crossed.

China would be logical to assume the position except it has demonstrated to everyone that it cannot be trusted. In addition, the EU is also deep in debt. The community of nations have failed to abide by their membrship constitution. There are many cracks in their union. Politicians everywhere love fiat. Spending to be reelected has shaped their life. The love of pseudo money is their life. Governments have no substance and no truth. They seek only to placate the masses.

Seeing is believing...

The following list of nations are the leading force as to why world debt is now over $100 trillion. If you combine their GDP, it does not reach the debt total. It means that you do not make enough to pay your rent. The world average is 95% of their GDP. Keep in mind, these figures may not spell out the whole picture. It is worse like LBJ keeping the Viet Nam war off the books. You will also see what we know about the following nations. Many of them cannot meet their rent as their GDP is over 100% of revenues. 

Russia: Claims its debt is only 21.4% of GDP.                                                                                            S. Korea: Admits to 54.5% of GDP.                                                                                                            Sweden: Nation has a strong standard of living and provides citizens benefits with 33% debt to GDP.    Indonesia: 41% debt ration to GDP.                                                                                                              Mexico: 60% ratio and rising.                                                                                                                      Germany: 65.4% and spending to build up their defense.                                                                            Argentina: 73%. This is one nation where we question the figures.                                                            Spain: 100%. They had a bailout from the IMF and they need another. Scary.                                          Brazil: 92%. We fear that there are off the book problems. Snubbed by China and Russia for BRICS.      China: Admits 96.3%. There are many regional banks that are insolvent and off the books.                    India: 80.4%. This is a growing economy.                                                                                                  Canada: 112%. It has tariff problems, but it is a resource rich nation.                                                        France: 116%. Government seeks tariffs to stop China from hurting its economy.                                    Italy: 137%. It should leave the EU and form an alliance with the Mediterranean nations.                        Japan: The worst! 234.9%. Don't understand. Everyone buys their cars. This cannot continue.                US: 122.5% and rising. We have violated our reserve status. We see a crisis in world currency coming.

Fiat's Curse

This is an American problem. We are spread out with poor public transportation. Europe has a higher standard of living with good public transportation. The point? CARS!

In the US we need a car to shop, work and live. However, fiat destroys the value of money. You can clearly see this in buying a vehicle. Auto payments are spread out on average to 84 months or 7 years. This is done so people can afford to make the payments and still pay rent, food, etc. The average loan now runs $750 per month. In the 1980s, you could buy a house with a lower payment. Car financing is now 12% of all financing. Needless to say, this is a record. Hope your car is running well...Peace

Mid-Term: Second Opinion

- One man's ceiling is another man's floor

- Paul Simon (There Goes Rhymin' Simon).

A few weeks ago we gave you the mid-year outlook from the investment firm, Morgan Stanley. This week, we give you a second opinion from Charles Schwab. They had the benefit of producing their report late in the month of June. We do not bother with the two biggies, JP Morgan and Goldman. They sold their souls to fiat. We do not believe anything that they say. 

Schwab's panel noted that Europe outperformed the US market despite the tariffs. The report gained credibility with the insights of Liz Ann Sonders. She reminded us that there are connected agencies that can be effected and not just people saying that tariffs are just a one time price increase. This related aspect says inflation will continue beyond what "experts" believe. This outlook backs our belief that we are in a stealth inflationary environment even though no one else makes that claim. 

A note of caution on Europe came from Michelle Gibley. She reminds us that trade deals take on average 18 months. The annoucements of deals are premature. She still likes the EU markets because their P/E ratios are much lower than ours (EU14 v. US22). European markets also have no trillion dollar market firm cap companies. However, she adds that the EUs leading indicators have risen 31 months in a row. We see a retracement is over due. She, like Morgan Stanley sees defense spending as a big catalyst, especially for Poland, Greece and Denmark.  

Finally, Kathy Jones spoke about interest rates. Her question: Will foreign investors still buy US notes? She did not mention Trump's budget bill, but she talked about currency evaluations. How will they change with US debt and trade wars? She touched lightly on the appearance of the inverted yield. This is an indicator of trouble in bonds that flows out into the economy. However, she sees no loss of the reserve status if the dollar.

Our Question?

Neither of these firms talked about gold. They did not discuss the dangers to King Dollar like the BRICS and IMF. If Trump's budget passes, what happens to the dollar? We see more weakness ahead.

What We Know

Trump's bill passed. Our debt will rise. You can only go to the well so many times. One day, it can be dry. We know the anti-American whispers are out there. Maybe they will gather ears? The faith in America to do the right thing is fading. Our politicians are weak. They use deficit spending to mask all their sins, but they have created the greatest sin of all, debt bondage. We fear a crisis concerning our dollar and its reserve status will come into question. Get some gold!   ...Peace.

 

Political Misdirection

- City girls just seem to find out early. How to open doors with just a smile. A rich old man and she           won't have to worry. She'll dress up all in lace and go in style.

- Eagles (Lyin' Eyes)

As Old As Time

Did not the Lord mention that sinners know how to give presents to their children? Do they not know our culture? Do they not see our movies, hear our songs and watch our television? 

Our politicians are among the modern sinners. They have intelligent people who they hire to smooth out their language. Presidents employ them to get laws passed that they know have corrupt favoritism. Did Biden's, Inflation Reduction Act stop or add to inflation. We all know it didn't stop inflation and the debt added to our pain. Now, we get the "Big Beautiful Bill." It is 940 pages...and probably will grow. With the little release of points on it, we have gleamed this budget is an Oreo cookie. The first word is honest. It is big. The second is misdirection. It uses a lovely word like a smile. It hides the lies within. The last word is a euphemism. The word bill can mean a law and it can also mean a charge. Dear Reader, we are getting charged to the tune of another $4 trillion to our national debt. 

The one good feature of the budget is our government receives $808 billion from tariffs. President Trump gives this needed revenue to the rich in tax cuts. His fellow, lying Repiblicans say the tax cuts add zero to the end game. Why, you ask? Because they say the tax cuts that are already on the books will just be extended. Well, those original tax cuts pushed our national debt of $20 trillion in 2016, to our present $37 trillion and will explode, as this budget as written shows a $3+trillion shortfall. Keep in mind, that our national deficit is so bad that we are already on the books to record one trillion just in interest payments on a yearly basis.

Now, we read this cronyism. Remember too big too fail? Well, the big banks have been after the Fed to lower the rule to have extra capital in these large institutions. They got two villains to help. Michelle Bowman and Powell have ended eSLR. 

Trump's budget will send the dollar into a crisis. The Chinese, Russians and BRICS will be giddy. The One World crowd will be foaming at the mouth. The IMF will push their Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket of currencies plan. Whatever happens, King Dollar will die. It will severely damage the American deam. Everyday citizens will feel not only inflation, but economic pain. We love the Eagles. The chorus pertains to our corrupt government leaders. "...your smile is a thin disguise...There ain't no way to hide your lyin' eyes..."

Consider this...

...a billion seconds is 31 years. We lose more than a $billion a day. A trillion seconds is 31,688 years. Now, you can grasp the importance of having a balanced budget. 

We wonder how the trial of Netanyahu is going? How about Brazil's, Bolsonaro? It seems that all the recent presidents of that nation is accused of corruption of one type or another? In any event, what these politicians say after the trial will be a lie. 

Meanwhile,

the market hit new record highs in the S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ). However, this does not mean a rally. According to Dow Theory, the industrials and transports also must hit new highs. The two are a long way off. Fibonacci Retracement levels offer a clearer picture. When a price moves up above 38.2%, it implies the upside can go higher. When the market shows a high in price level, Fibonacci can identify support levels. The same is true in reverse...Peace.

Odds and Ends: June 2025

- ...You can leave here for three days in space, but when you return its the same old place, fighting and          destruction all over the place...

- Barry McGuire, Eve of Destruction

G-7 Summit and Fed

Trump may have left the meeting in Canada due to the warmonger, Netanyahu, but Ursula von der Leyen opened up on China. The EU leader called out China for lies in trading. We say, "Yay!" Then, the Chinese hackers hit Canada. She should have noted that too. 

We stated that the Fed would not change interest rates. We pat ourselves on the back. Fed chair, Powell did say that he sees some price increases with inflation to 3%. He adds, "We do not see more increases during the summer." Lastly, he warned about possible stagflation. Dear Reader, the US has been in stagflation since the end of 2022. We labeled it, "Stealth inflation." One reason is no one else recognizes it. We noted it in many sectors like insurance, food, utilities and apparel. We also add this point. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) does not include insurance costs. Nothing like manipulation to make things appear better. 

There is also a new concern regarding housing and insurance. Have you ever heard of  subsidence? It is the sinking of land. When you see cracks on the outside walls of your home, this is subsidence. With flooding and other climate problems, 1.2 billion people could be effected with damages at estimaes of $8 trillion. Ouch!

I wonder what the Communist Party in China says about its poor real estate report of only 5 million new homes in a nation of over one billion?   ...Anyway, ...

We also stated that the May unemployment report at 4.2% would be the last time for that low reading. We saw in the past two weeks two high-teck layoffs. First, it was Microsoft and now, Amazon. AI and robotics are being hired. Maybe the crooks that tabulate the stats could add a new feature to the unemployment index, AI and robotic hiring?  

Speaking of high-teck...

Meta is buying a defunk nuclear power plant. They plan to upgrade and use it for power in data centers for its AI program. This worries us a lot. Meta cannot even regulate its platform with protections and we are allowing them to run a nuclear reactor?

All the Talk...

is on Tesla with a test market of self-driving taxi's. Then, we read where New York will build a nuclear power plant and Japan will launch flying taxi's. We worry about the talk by Putin that all Ukraine is his. Where China has constantly surrounded Taiwan like a prize fighter sizing up his opponent. Where Netanyahu uses Trump like a pupit on a string.

Where talk ends. Where we do like "Pearl Harbor" and attack Iran without notice. 

Good News

Subsea cables have been a great addition for Brazil. It gives solid fiber internet. The firm is extending to include Argentina. This connects our world. 

Meanwhile,

The market is in consolidation. The bulls want to raise prices, but there is always some unsettling news like Iran/Israel conflict last week and our entry this week. We note this reliable indicator. When the market indexes cannot top the January high, it indicates a bearish trend. Conversely, if the low's are not taken out, this is bullish. By the way, we have not taken out the January high. Ironically, the oil price dropped to its first resistance level. The bulls say that this shows a pause is coming with Iran. We relate it to the calm like in the eye of a hurricane. Be patient...Peace. 

Mid-Year 2025

- ...Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose and sometimes you get the blues...

- Journey 

What Morgan Stanley Sees...

In their mid-term report at the beginning of June, the investment firm looked at six points of interest. They saw weakness in global growth, but no US recession. They see inflation slowing with a possible rise in the 3rd quarter and then, falling. They hedged by saying a possible rate cut by the Fed. Speaking of which, the Fed meets today. We see no rate cut. Trump will explode. Continuing, they hedged again by saying that governments might push stimulist packages. The US dollar will continue to weaken. We agree. Oil will continue to fall with excessive supply. We see consolidation.

They see money flowing into AI, data centers and defense. They mentioned the stability in bonds. No argument on any of these.

We Take Exception

Granted these reports are general in nature as they address an audience of different levels of knowledge, but they offer poor explanations for important points like the dollar and oil. They were correct on the flow of investment money, but they did not mention the dangers like we see happening in the Middle East. The conflict spiked oil. It could go higher as 30% of oil tankers pass along the waters adjacent to Iran. What about Ukraine? To say money will enter defense, but no connection to the stock market? What about the Trump tax cuts to the value of the dollar? This will be the biggest issue going forward. A lower dollar makes inflation rise. The Fed buying treasuries so the federal government keeps its reckless spending is status quo. This is the root cause for inflation. It is one reason why we say, "End the Fed!"

Unemployment

The May report stated it was 4.2%. We see it rising. The on again, off again tariffs will begin to appear in June and by the end of August, unemployment will be the sounding board of the Democrats even though Trump is attempting to do the right thing. As for the economy, Journey has you covered. Costo and Dollar General are winning. The Gap and ANF are losing. Monro tire chain and Marelli auto parts got the blues. We worry about M-2 money supply. There was a $1 trillion drop between April 2022 and October 2023. The percentage was twice as great as the dip in the Great Depression of 1929. This type of effect takes a couple of years to be an impact. 

Very Sad

Boeing had another disaster as well as Netanyahu. Neither has creditability. So, we cannot believe whatever they say. 

Looking Ahead

Trump can replace Powell at the Fed as his term expires next year. He might test the waters about running for a third term. Keep an eye on the trails on Netanyhu in Israel and ex-president Bolsonaro in Brazil. Politics hides the truth.  Peace.