- ...Lean on me when times are bad When the day comes and you're down In a river of trouble and about to drown Just hold on, I'm comin' Hold on, I'm comin'
- Dave &Sam
Love those lyrics. Here, at Evolution, we do not like to advocate specific stocks because if they go a muck, we will feel pain as well as you. However, we do believe that we have an understanding of the economy. We also inform. We give praise when due. We object the way our leaders run the nation. If we lived in Communists China or Communists Russia, we be in jail or dead. We thank the founders of our great nation. With that said, we offer part ll. It will center around commodities.
Oil
Contrary to clean energy, oil is still the most important product. China is the world's biggest importer. It is also the largest EV seller in total terms. Tesla's "Y" model is the largest model sold. When providing any new year outlook, one must realize China and its culture. The Chinese New Year or Lunar Holiday puts a major damper on many commodities. In addition, the growth of the BRICS alliance is slowly changing how commodity agreements settle. This may connect to the Chinese zodiac. This is the year of the green wood snake. It is yin or female. The passive nature reflects a slow, steady movement and a snake can swallow a larger animal. I don't like snakes and I don't like where this trends. Then again, I do not put faith in zodiac signs, but in God.
Oil has been consolidating in its bottom range. China is also getting unknown amounts of oil from Russia and Iran. This indicates that oil should test its low as the holiday ends. At the same time, Trump will be in office and we can see some effects of his new administration. That will be the time to determine oil's direction.
Dr. Copper
The same forecast will be extended to copper. China has dual control as the largest consumer and largest producer. If Trump goes against clean energy, demand will shrink. Copper could decline to test the lows of 2024 and maybe even lower? Housing demand is not helping either, but this direction will depend on mortgage rates. They are still hovering at highs around 7% and that kills copper demand.
Grains
Food inflation is real. The spiral could end with protective tariffs. There is no reason for the US to import food, but we do. We need to protect our fishermen too. We import too much fish from foreign soils. We do not need a supply chain across oceans when we have roads and truckers to move product here in the US. By the way, we definitely need to protect our citrus, tomato and vegetable growers. While I'm at it, we need to put some money in diary to protect our milk and egg industry.
Precious Metals
Gold had a great year in 2024. It rallied 27%. The reason is dual. The US deficit and the BRICS seeking to dethrown king dollar. We see the same reasons to push gold even higher. Charts help you see the staircase upward. The second phase or leg of the rally should occur sometime in 2025. The target is $3400. At that time, we will look at the price action and volume. We like Barrick Gold (GOLD) and Alamos Gold (AGI). Wheaton (WPM) is a good streamer play. Find a pullback level. We believe this is a safe bet. We have positions in the three.
The world is changing and chips could be looked at as a commodity. We do not like bitcoin as this is just replacing corrupt bankers with a new, unknown banker. The latter coud be hacked, especially if someone applies quantum computing. Then, what do you have? NOTHING! Then gain, you had nothing anyway as this is just another form of fiat.
There is a reason why gold holds its place. We do not have to repeat the reasons. The founders understood the reasons and that is why they put gold as our currency. Of course, overtime, the corrupt changed this with the cabal of crooks, the Federal Reserve. It is why we say, "End the Fed!" Peace.
