Spring Training, March Madness - to the scoreboard

It's that time of year and after this past winter, which was really rough, hope springs eternal, again this spring.  I guess the Groundhog was right with its call for an early spring. Of course, if your a Cubs fan, it has been four score or more than one lifetime since claiming the trophy at the big dance, however new year no fear.
The pundits control the media and according to them, its all good and even with the unrest in the Middle East. They say $4.00 per gallon won't hurt the economic recovery. Maybe not for those overpaid government employees, but its killing me. Speaking of which, there seems to be some disturbance outside the ballpark. People with signs yelling about collective bargaining, but that is our second game, Public versus Private. Now, a recap of the action so far.
Old "Helicopter" Ben took the mound and has his Fed ahead of the Consumers early in the game. The Fed scored a run in January although the Consumers had the bases loaded with the highest rate of inflation for food costs, but Ben didn't allow a run to score even when the Food & Agricultural Organization for the United Nations said food inflation hit a new record. Ben got this "hot" prospect to tap-out to the mound.
The Fed scored another run in February as Ben spoke to Congress and passed any blame on the dollar to government's lack of discipline in regards to spending deficits. Ben retired the Consumers, 1-2-3. So, after two innings the Fed lead it, 2-0. It looks like the Fed will repeat and another long season for the Consumers, both literally and figuratively. By the way China has been traded. It is warming up in the bullpen. It went from a food exporter to the world's largest importer of food. Good news for the farm belt, but demand causes prices to rise and inflation always comes along for the ride. Ask anyone in the Middle East. Can Ben hold down this prospect? And look who is in the game out in left after being "left out" for so long. Yes. For the first time since "Reconstruction," cotton is back. It has looked good in camp and broke the record for price in over 150 years. Wow! It reminds me of the line by Phil"the scouter"Rizutto in Meat Loaf's song, PARADISE by the DASHBOARD LIGHT, "this rookie makes things happen." ...On to the top of the third. Leading off for the Fed, QE2...
In other sport news March Madness begins next week after the invitations go out this weekend. The field will be expanded and all I have to say at this time is - "GO IRISH!" Of course the big dance has never been won by the Irish and our greatest basketball coach, John Wooden would say,"failure is not always fatal, but not willing to change can be." I bet those words of wisdom are not on any governmental bulletin board or how about this from Alexis de Tocqueville, "In a revolution(big dance), as in a novel, the most difficult part to invent is the end." Wonder what old Ben is planning? Peace, Love. JFL.

INFLATION: Who to Blame?

Our government, Ben Bernanke and his back up group, the Fed, openly declare that there is no inflation to speak of. They claim it is in their guidelines of .02%. Of course, they don't include food and energy in their stats. Must be nice never to be cold, hungry, or drive a car?
Old Ben will appear twice this week before our elected leaders. He will defend his QE2, questions about inflation in the face of a rapid rise in oil prices due to the Middle East contagion and future plans to keep our economy growing and lower unemployment. Will anyone ask him how the government declared that our GDP grew at 3.5% in the fourth quarter, pushing the stock market higher, when it just got revised DOWN to 2.4%?
Old Ben has been under attack over his printing policy to buy Treasuries, help the banking industry and flooding the market with new money. It is not just in this blog. The Wall Street Journal gave a catcall too by declaring his policy to be inflationary as the "Bernanke Premium." China, as well as all the emerging market countries scream over his printing policy. In fact, it is hard to find anyone in his corner except President Obama which needs a cheaper dollar to create more exports in hope of finding new jobs to get reelected. Does anybody do anything because it is right anymore? Yes, Ben, everyone is wrong and you are right. Ha!
There were 24 food riots around the world in 2009 and similar numbers in 2010. Food exporting countries halted their exporting to avoid having their own nation go hungry. They generally subsidize food within their respective nations, but with sovereign debt issues, this too is under pressure. Their cry is this. With the excess of dollars in the marketplace, these countries have to devalue their currency in order to maintain their market niche. This causes inflation to their individual nations. It is a race to the bottom value in world currencies. The present Middle East unrest started over inflation. Bernanke says it is not his policy that causes this inflation, but the rise in commodities which these nations export. Hey, they're both right except Bernanke is taxing all Americans because we are paying more for food and energy. Oh, yeah, Ben does not count that as inflationary. END THE FED! START A NEW POLITICAL PARTY! One that represents the truth and has integrity to do the right thing for America based on the Founders ideas of Madison and Jefferson. We need the NEO-FEDERALIST! NOW!

PREDICTION / FUTURE SHOCK: Return to McMansion

I just read, THE BIG SHORT by Michael Lewis. In it he mentioned that a Mexican strawberry picker making $14,000 per year was able to secure a loan for $724,000 to buy a "McMansion." Of course, his moment-in-the-sun has set. He is not alone. McMansions are available throughout the country under foreclosure and now, you can get one for $350,000 or less. They usually come with 5-bedrooms and 5-baths, family room, living room, dining room, extra large kitchen and swimming pool among its features. Back to that in a minute.
A housing report released this past week stated that there is an uptick in building permits which provided a spark for the present stock market rally. A closer look reveals that 80% of the new dwellings are multi-family. Builders are not building new single family homes. They know no one is buying. They also know that there is going to be a big spike in foreclousures as the banks clean up their robo-signing mess and other mistakes. We are talking about five million homes and that is a lot of people going from ownership to rental status. This is the second part of the equation.
At present, rental occupancy is low due to the recession, but rents are still high in relationship to the cost of financing a mortgage because rents were rising during the housing bubble. With mortgage rates under 5% you can control a $100,000 for less than $500. per month. I live in Orlando,Fl. and a studio here rents for over $500. per month. Yes, I know real estate is local in nature and renting costs are different, but the insight provides a reference point. This is the third block in the equation.
Our Federal Government is not responsible and a crisis is coming with our dollar because of politics, self-interest like the banking industry, insurance companies, the military, et al. They all go to bed saying,"I want..." and wake up saying, "Give me..." Our dollar is the reserve currency of the world and Americans do not understand the value of this aspect. By 2015, our budget will eat all the government revenues with just the entitlements(Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid) and the interest on our present deficits. We are in BIG, BIG TROUBLE! Another block under the equation.
Finally, there are many people like the One World Order, nations like China and others who aren't our friends. They will seek to change the dollar from its reserve status for a new world reserve currency. The best we can hope for at that time is a basket of currencies, of which the dollar is one. When this comes to pass, inflation will soar to more like hypa-inflation. Gasoline will hit $10. per gallon and food, forget-about-it. Crime will be off the charts and if you are renting in one of these communities, you will feel like a prisoner in your home. Unemployment or what the government reveals to be unemployment, will be in excess of 15%. Welcome to Future Shock...or you can prepare now with my solution.
Buy an McMansion with your extended family. I'm talking your cousins, aunts, grandparents, best friend. The payments will be lower than renting and because of the large lots associated with these homes, the back yard can grow food by the unemployed in this household. You will live in a relatively safe environment and when things stabilize(possibly five years)the household unit can share in whatever gains will come from the sale of the home. There are limited choices. The other choice? Buy gold!

Who do you BELIEVE?

The US government and Ben Bernanke claim that inflation in our country is low and under control. How low? According to them it is at 1.5%. Funny, the rising stock market is being led by the surging price of commodities. Here is what 1.5% inflation looks like according to the latest Wall Street stats: Cotton is up 146%, Coffee is up 90%, Corn is up 87%, Wheat is up 80%, Soybeans is up 58% and Live Cattle is up 25%. Gas? Every time you refill you know you face an empty wallet or a credit rejection to one of your charge cards. Last year, it was high at around $2.50 per gallon and this January it is over $3.00 per gallon and in an uptrend. Of course, Ben and the government don't need energy or food and that explains their attitude.
However, Kraft Food and Sara Lee(and nobody doesn't like Sara Lee)claim that they have to raise the price of their products because of the rise in commodities or they will lose money for their shareholders.
So, who you gonna call? GhostBusters?
P.S. By the way the government revealed on a back page that 215,000 fewer jobs were created than originally calculated in 2010. And it takes at least 150,000 new jobs per month just to keep up with the population growth. What was January's figure again? Oh, yeah, 36,000 and the stock market keeps rising.

The Massaging of Stats...Odds and Ends

The most recent unemployment report stated that payrolls increased and there were less claims for the jobless. Sounds nice, doesn't it? The report said that unemployment dipped to 9%, down from December's 9.1%. Good trend, wouldn't you say? The ADP report on jobs adds another 36,000 jobs. Yeah! This is after the 140,000 jobs added in December. Double Yeah! Question? Where's yours..mine?
The stock market responded with new highs and President Obama is getting an uptick with the public, however this is all media lies and massaging of stat facts.
When you ask yourself this and see the prices for gasoline and food, you know the truth. They are all lying. If you add the population growth, legal and illegal, along with the number of new high school and college grads entering the workforce to the 14.5 million unemployed, it takes more than 145,000 new jobs every month to lower the unemployment rate. And keep in mind, the forecasters said that there was going to be 240,000 jobs in December and another 140,000 jobs in January and both missed - BIG TIME!
Elsewhere: "Helicopter"Ben Bernanke denied the accusations from China and around the world that his excess printing of dollars is exporting inflation to everyone. Yeah, everyone is wrong except me(Ben) and yet, gas is up over $3. dollars per gallon and food doesn't fly off the shelf because it is too expensive. Nevertheless, many countries are beginning to amass supplies of food like rice, wheat and corn to counter the rise in these commodities. These actions will add to global inflation.
Secretary of State, Clinton appeared on TV to say that the perpetrators of violence in Egypt should be brought to justice while at the same time she is behind the policy that allows our drones to fly over Iraq and Afghanistan killing many innocent civilians. PHONY!

STATE of the UNION...the BS stops here

President Obama gave another rhetoric performance, and although this one was too long, it lifted morale. However, the past shows his words lack follow-through as he has failed to end the wars, provide universal health care and regulate the financial industry. I grew up with the truth, "action speaks louder than words." He changed his focus from the above campaign promises to infrastructure, technology, education and the deficit.
He did mention both infrastructure and the technology for the electric grid in his inaugural address, but no action just empty thoughts. The wars still eat lives, resources and adds to the deficit to the tune of two billion a day. The president wants to adjust President Bush's "no student left behind" with his "race to the top." Finally, he showed his true colors of appeasement rather than conviction when he made a deal with the Republicans two weeks ago to extend the Bush tax cuts which added another $855 billion to our deficit which by the way equals the total deficit of President Clinton's two terms in office in just one minute.
The Republican response was more realistic delivered by Congressman, Paul Ryan. His presentation was very truthful and somber, however you cannot trust the Republicans whose party has been hijacked by the wealthy. In fact, it was later revealed that the whole Republican party did not endorse Mr.Ryan's words and there was even another response by the Tea Party which too has been hijacked by the Republican elite.
I voted for President Obama the first time, but I will not vote for him again. He is an appeaser not a leader. To talk about the deficit and at the same time run a budget of over $1.5 trillion dollars is hypocrisy. In addition, our deficit will exceed 60% of GDP in 2011. When you look at this speech it was nothing more than his reelection campaign getting tuned up. His new direction at education sought of deflects from his original campaign promises and within it offers true irony.
His administration is currently pushing the dollar lower to increase exports(14% of economy) which only helps our large international companies and does nor create jobs because our nation is the only true domestic economy(86% of economy) in the world and we need to create jobs that increase our domestic side of the equation. However, this devaluing of the dollar has caused the global community to do the same exact thing to their currencies and here is the irony of the policy, all currencies are racing to the bottom, to be the lowest currency so they can increase exports. How's that for excellence? Will they teach this in our school system?

All these erroneous economic policies are heading us for another crisis, this one will center on the dollar as the world's reserve currency and play right into the hands of the One World Group under the leadership of the banking industry. We need a new political party that represents the poor and middle class who are the people and not the "free trade" people who are our aristocrats and who are destroying the concept of America as established by our Founding Fathers under the thinking of Jefferson and Madison. Our nation leads the world in the economic gap between the top and bottom and currently have 43.2 million people living in poverty. Put the NEO-FEDERALIST on the voting ticket. A party of the people, by the people and most importantly, for the people.

Recovery? 20 Economic Records that tell another story.

* A new record of 2.87 million Americans received a foreclosure filing.
* A record one million homes were actually repossessed.
* The price of gold rose above $1400 an ounce while the purchasing power of the dollar hit a new low.
* Approximately 1.53 million consumer bankruptcy petitions according to the American Bankruptcy Institute
* Those lucky enough to secure a new job found it took over 35 weeks to find it - a record.
* Manufacturing fell below 10% . This is the lowest ever and getting worse!
* Part-time working Americans is the highest in five decades and those giving up the search - a new record.
* Government spending is at an all-time high along with the number of Americans collecting food stamps(43 mil)and over 50 million Americans on Medicaid and according to the Census Bureau, 43.6 million Americans living in poverty while at the same time Wall St. will provide $144 billion in compensation.
* 157 banks failed in 2010 - an increase over 2009 and over 2008.
* State and local government debt reached an all-time high and not to be out done, the US government surpassed $14 trillion in debt.
...and consider that almost all state and local governments were able to meet obligations due to the stimulus money which won't be available to them in 2011 and the many jobs that were "saved" due to that same stimulus money will await their fate, probably being laid off. In addition, any sovereign debt issues on default will cause a flight to the dollar, causing it to rise and that will choke off our exports, the robo-signing foreclosure disaster will add another spike in the foreclosing process and if that isn't enough, stock analysts predict another oil spike in price. But don't worry, this is the third year in the presidential cycle.