Sunday, March 4, 2012

Human Nature Says: Putin, Obama Again!...L&C

There is something in our human nature that works like the Rings of Saturn regarding change. You can read all the self-help books you want, but until you can defeat the "I Can't Syndrome" within your self, you won't. This plays for big gains by incumbents in politics. As much as we dread the present people in political power, our subconscious fears the unknown even more. We will rationalize until we see for some poor reasoning to vote the incumbent over someone who we might think would be the better candidate. For example, Ron Paul. He would cut back on the military. Yes, we like. He would strive to return to the gold standard with a strong dollar. Yes, again! We like. He would cut the deficit. Yes, again! We like, but we vote Obama because Paul won't win(I Can't Syn.). It could be any candidate, but the bottom line our weak nature will continue the status quo whether Putin, Obama, or the idiot in Iran. Too bad for all of us who are more positive and think more clearly. Prediction: Putin and Obama.
LIARS and CROOKS: This week goes to President Obama and all the Republican candidates who discussed the issue of rising oil prices. They all claim the tensions over Iran which is true or speculation which also adds to the cost, but even together is not the real problem. Iran and speculation are temporary. The real danger is our oil companies closed three oil refineries and remember there has not been one new refinery built in over twenty years. There is a new dangerous "oil spread" developing between WTI(American oil) and Brent(European oil). Oil in Europe is already over $125. per barrel. The East coast refineries could not stay in business with those prices, especially when in the Mid-West it was $20. cheaper. This is the source of the problem and even worse. It is forecasting what we would have to pay for gasoline if the dollar ever lost its reserve status. DANGER! End the Fed!

Sunday, February 26, 2012

I Played "KICK the CAN!"...L&C

The world received the news last week that the "deal" with Greece has finally been done. The pundits reviewed the pros and cons of the deal which could actually unwind because the administrators could face a new government in Greece who could derail the plan. Fret not! I not going there. However I'd like to address the cliche that is used to describe the solution for the problem, which is debt(can)and by rolling it over, they delay a day of reckoning by moving the time table down the road.
Bronx Street Wise
As a kid I actually played the game called, "Kick the Can." The idea was to get some sad sack to chase down everyone else while they hid and sometimes with street emotions and outlets, would call out the idiot, names and more until he found everyone with the last person being "it" for the next game which the big guys would grow tired of and forget that, so as to speak. They would go home. However, there was another option and this will relate to Greece. It is called the "BUMS RUSH!" The idea behind this option was the last remaining guys would all charge the "it" person at the same time whereas he could not call out the individuals quick enough and as a result someone would kick his hand while holding the can, which sent the can flying, him crying and everyone else, was free to start all over again with the same idiot chasing everybody and the game begins again from the start.
Debt Solution
There is none. To make investors "take" a voluntary haircut is damaging in many ways. Investors will wise up and won't risk their money in future bonds. Investors who bet with derivatives on the outcome. They won't receive anything because of the loophole in the contract wording "voluntary." They will be hell bent to form a bums rush on the bankers and governments for cheating them(in their thinking). This part has dangerous reprocustions for the market in the future. Greece, their government leaders and people will eventually feel abused by the austerity measures. Words are already flying between the Greek President and the German finance minister. Germans still feel cheated as they have to work until age 67 for retirement as opposed to 50, the early retirement in Greece among other pension aspects like health insurance. This also affects the other European members as well as the rest of the world as they read and compare their own standard of living. Finally, there is no plan to help Greece to grow out of the debt and this can has lead in it with the weight of debt that everyone is just going to say, forget that and go home.
Going Home
Four players "moved" out of the neighborhood and they won't be playing anymore. Grubb & Ellis, CyberDefender went to bankruptcy. Home Saving of America and Central Bank of Georgia both failed last week.
LIARS and CROOKS: Last week saw Congress agree to the tax cut(working plan) and to extend unemployment benefit insurance. Did anyone ask where the money came from? I'll tell you. They took the money from the social security revenues like they always have done for the past 50 years which is the real reason why the fund is almost broke. Apparently, they do not know the rules and consequences of kick the can.

Sunday, February 19, 2012

Investing or Sucker Punch?...L&C

We have been hearing a lot of good news over the airwaves lately about the state of our economy. Wall Street pundits are calling this the first stage of a rally. Barrons just posted its latest issue with the cover: DOW 15,000. Individual companies like Apple closed over $500 a share this past week. The housing industry had increased starts for January. GM is once again the number one car maker. Unemployment is down to 8.5%, and confidence is rising. So, is this the time for you to enter the market?
My Perspective
When I look at my indicators, I don't see it. What I do see is a feel good campaign by the Obama administration to get reelected. These are some of the reasons why I would advise you to wait on the sidelines. If this is another leg up on a bull market, the only thing you will miss is early money. Markets always correct and you can enter with a correction. What I have stated before and again here, study the volume on the correction as well as the upside. At the moment there is no volume or conviction in the market. The serious volume days have come on the downside which leads me to one of my indicators.
CEO Selling
Argus Research shows that CEOs are dumping their shares. If anyone should know about future sales, problems, etc., it is them. They are selling to the tune of 5.77 for everyone that buys. This is a omen.
Oil and Food
They have both risen in double digit percentages. You cannot trust the government because they place their people in the agancies to give reports that spin things to a positive tone. CPI in the 2% range. Really? I say BS! I say corruption! Consider this: Gasoline sales have been down since they peaked in 2007 and electicity usage is down fours years in arow while our population continues to grow. Is that a conundrum or what?
Government Manipulation
Bush did it with his tax cuts. It got him reelected and President Obama had Congress pass an accelerated tax plan in 2010 that went into effect last year. This bill allows corporations(why Republicans signed on)to write off any purchases with total 100% depreciation in the same year. This spurred the economy in the forth quarter, however this is a one time event. Every industry got a shot in the arm, but the junk is back to full price. Hope you didn't get addicted?
I could list a few other indicators, but food and oil are my mainstays, however one cannot forget the problems of the world. Greece and ECM may push their problems of debt down the road, but every road leads to a destination. The biggest problem that I see is when you get there, the price of oil could be prohibitive, especially with the Iran nuclear question or Pakistan or Afghanistan or Iraq or Chinese trade problems or some unforeseen situation. The litany will numb the mind. Remember this: the last six recessions have been caused by the spike in oil.
LIARS and CROOKS:I will look at the funny side this week as it relates to the economy and politics. The economy is so bad that Motel 6 won't leave the light on for you. Prices are so high in New York that a picture now is only worth 200 words. Mitt Romney learned a lesson: money cannot buy...Missouri, Colorado or Minnesota. President-elect Obama said that by his third year in office, he would cut the deficit in half to $563 billion and it was over $1.3 trillion which is only off by $800 billion give or take, but that's government calculations.

Friday, February 10, 2012

An IPO for War!...Liars & Crooks

This is going to be for me a tough piece to write. There is no anti anything in it, only the thinking. It would be nice if I had my old football teammate, Howie here to stand beside me. I hope Lenny from Queens and my army buddy from Brooklyn will understand. They have two things in common with me. They are all my friends and they are all Jewish. Not to mention my favorite comedian, Rodney Dangerfield, may he rest in peace. When I think about it, I only know a few Muslims, notably Marwan in San Francisco who is a great guy. Nevertheless, my bonds are with the people I know and therefore, I stand for Israel as a free state. That being said, I am deeply disturbed by what I have been reading lately, and what the media is talking about.
Nuclear Iran
The debate is over trust. Can we trust Iran which is building a nuclear plant which they say is for domestic use like electrical power. Israel says they are seeking to make a bomb. I can understand their fear when you consider the rhetoric coming out of Iran that calls for the destruction of Israel. Israel wants to strike Iran to destroy the plant, but this act could start a war. The US response is we are watching Iran very closely, however this is not the time to act. Both governments seem to be debating the date of the response as if it were an IPO stock offering. Also, and with much skepticism, Iran nuclear scientist have been dying lately. Is assassinations being conducted? This is how real serious wars are started.
Unintended Consequences
What if they are both wrong? Intelligence? Ha! Like President Bush with Iraq WMD? The thinking should be this. Just warn Iran, but tell Iran what the consequences will be if they are lying. No country has a right to tell another sovereignty what to do and using death threats, big bully actions won't get it. Have these war mongers ever read Sun-tzu? In his book, THE ART of WAR, he states,"the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting."
For Every Action There Is A Reaction
If Iran is lying all along, at least we will know the truth. Then, we declare war on them and we destroy their plant and any other suspisions that we may have doubts about. Act with justification, but allow peace a chance!
Liars and Crooks: This week it is dedicated to Congress and the President. I want to thank the Global Guru for this unique way of looking at the budget. Simplified!
Consider our budget: US tax revenues: $2,170,000,000,000.
                                  Federal budget:    $3,820,000,000,000.
                                   New debt:           $1,650,000,000,000.
                                 National debt:       $14,271,000,000,000.
                  and new budget cuts  :         $38,500,000,000.
Now, remove 8 zeros and pretend it is your family household budget.
                               Family income: $21,700.
                              family spending:$38,200.
                  new debt on credit card: $16,500.
          new outstanding family debt: $142,715.
Bottom line: total budget cuts for our government if it were applied to our family budget, it would amount to:  $385.00  See the BS! We need a new political party that is for the people and not one from the 1%, by the 1% and for the 1%. Vote the Liberty Party.     

Thursday, February 2, 2012

Groundhog Prediction: Fed Destroys Economy...LIARS and CROOKS

Today is Groundhog Day and Punxsutawney Bill sees six more weeks of winter. There is a little know correlation between the rodent's predictions and our bureaucratic Fed. It is like dog years to human years. Truth be told, I just started the theory. I see six more years of depression and recession with another climax bubble in the banking industry. I will show you how I came to that conclusion in a minute, but first, let's take a closer look at the little event.
Movie Classic
Hollywood mirrors society and made a comedy classic about the celebration in 1993, however the movie was set in 1992 exactly 20 years ago today. Gotta like Bill Murray and the beautiful, make that very beautiful, Andie MacDowell. Murray's character gets lost in a deja vu at the event and he cannot tell whether he is in reality or just dreaming. He keeps reliving the day over-and-over again. He does the same things over-and-over again, hoping for a different resolution. Isn't that the definition of insanity? Applying the same solutions to a problem over-and-over again hoping for a different outcome? This takes us to the Fed which is a bureaucracy which applies the same principles it sees in our economy over-and-over again hoping for a different outcome. I'll give the Fed one thing. They are
Consistent.
From their first year in 1913 until today, they have lost the value in our dollar to the tune of almost one percent per year. C'mon, boys! Get two percent this year and when you celebrate your one hundred anniversay next year you will have lost 100% value in our dollar. Along the way they have demonstrated their true colors many times:privatize the profits for the banking industry and socialize the losses to the taxpayers. For every economic problem they apply the same solution, more liquidity.
This is how I see the next crash. It will be from the
Bottom Up.
As opposed to a previous crash which was from the
Top Down.
Ever see a Savings&Loan? You know, the lending insitution that George Bailey operated? When our capital markets were freer back in the 1970s, there were over 4,000 of them throughout our nation. They would provide mortgages for the housing industry before our GSE took over the operation or should I say filled the vacuum left by the loss of our Savings&Loan industry. When Paul Volcker headed the Fed in 1979, he made a famous speech to fight inflation. He raised interest rates to 17.5% to slow the economy and stop inflation. He gets a lot of praise from the media and elsewhere, however not from me. It is BS! He wasn't fighting inflation only, but the growing perception by the public that paper money was worthless and
GOLD
was what maintained value. Not only that, the gold-bugs reminded everyone that gold should be our currency as stated in our constitution. If you forgot, this is the same period when gold went from $63 to $850 per ounce. As a result of the Fed's action, gold was defeated as savers could get T-Bills with no risk from the government that paid 12%. Don't worry about securing a place to keep gold. And of course, the banks won't pay interest on it and charge you to store it. The manipulators pass the laws that they want, regardless of what you want or stated in our constitution. There was one, big problem. As per usual, the bureaucrats never think through their ideas. The unintended consequences of their actions destroyed the S&L industry. You see when interest rates skyrocketed these lending institutions were caught between a rock and a hard place. They were capped by law on the amount that they could charge on money. Botton line: they had to borrow from the Fed at 12% to lend to customers at 10%. A losing season. A lost industry. Another government bailout at taxpayers expense all caused by the Fed and Volcker's actions.
Today
we have low, low interest rates, however what happens when they rise? Banks, investment institutions, pensions, hedge funds, etc. will be receiving interest payment on assets with rates as low as 2% like with Ten Year Treasuries, while say at that time, rates return to their normal level, say 6 to 8%. They will be losing money and if you add inflation, basically worthless. By the way, the Fed is getting away with low rates. They work with their pals at the treasury. They offer rates at 2% for ten years, but consider this. Ten years ago gasoline was $1.04 per gallon. The medium price home was around $100K and a loaf of bread was under one dollar. Today, Helicopter Ben has the nerve to say that inflation is under 2%. Bottom line: future prices will cause the banking industry to collapse by 2016 as they will have to pay more for money while receiving less revenues from their assets. End the Fed!
LIARS and CROOKS: This week goes to three employees of Credit Suisse Group Ag or should I say ex-employees. They were charged with mispricing bonds, wire fraud, conspiracy to falsify books among other charges. One said he did it under direction from his boss so their year end bonus world reflect higher profits. This was in 2007. Nice to know the government eventually catches up to some of these crooks, however let me leave you with this. What if someone else applied the same crooked thinking to derivatives? I guess just multiply the damage by one thousand and puff, there goes our economy.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

State of Union: Geeks Rule and LIARS and CROOKS=Bottom Line

I have been reading an interesting book by Stephen Baker called, "NUMERATI." He coined the word to reflect the substance. It is how our future is developing. Have you ever heard of Umbria, Tacoda or Technorati? Google will pay money though its AdSense, however people have been gaming them. I do not use advertising in my blog, but maybe someday I will, who knows. Who ya gonna call? GHOSTBUSTERS!? Anyway, these companies hire computer geeks and mathematicians to understand what we like, want or can be persuaded to buy by studying us. They want to know what kind of buzz the latest gizmos are generating. They want to know why we clicked on a certain web site. They want to know what makes us tick, so they generate riches by selling that info to companies that sell us products. The list of possibilities is endless: medical, insurance,etc.
One hundred years ago they would go door-to-door, stand on busy streets, observed us while we shopped until they collected enough material to sell an advertising program. Today, it is done in labs in one end of a building working with computer teams in the other end. This brings us to last night when President Obama gave his state of the union speech.
Did you hear or notice the references to creating more jobs and retraining through schools for jobs, fairness with taxes, especially as it relates to our national debt, lowering education debt of students or the plight of home owners trying to refinance their homes? These buzz words and concepts resound with the Occupy Wall Street people, the Tea Party People and independent voters who are people like me. By making a definite statement of choice, this blog and myself are now being placed into a bucket or tribe depending on what terms the geeks classifying me use. It will be used in the future along with whatever else the math wizards deed important. This is our future. We are not just under street cameras on corners, but they watch us through our phones, computers, credit cards, teets, texts, etc.
VOTING DAY
The next election will be won by the geek company that can win the vital votes in the swing states. Sorry, guys, but if you are a given red or blue state, they take you for granted. This explains why there is never any real change in Washington. The battle is over the independents. What can I say that will get these people to believe that I understand them and I am willing to do what they suggest to right our ship of state. Winning this tribe of voters will determine the next election and all the rhetoric between now and then is nothing more than hot air. Maybe they can harness it as an alternative energy? Oh, by the way we do have hope because garbage in, garbage out will save us.
LIARS & CROOKS: This is the time for earnings season on Wall Street. The market is rallying because companies are making money, however cutting jobs, hours and product size to generate profits is not really creating true wealth. The insiders know this and they also know that the two driving forces of the status quo are the military and banking. The military has to cut back due to the declining revenues and growing debt of our government which leaves the finace industry. They have been utilizing the media and all their outlets to push up stocks centered around the financial industry such as banks, investment companies, insurance companies and the home builders. I would like for you to understand how corrupt these people are. They get rules and regulations passed to allow them to classify liabilities as assets, yet they scream there are too many rules and regulations. Bank of America which I love is the best example and keep in mind that every bank does the same technique. The company reported a $2 billion profit for the quarter. Good turn around, right? NO! Because under the column in which they place almost one trillion in mortgage securities, many are underwater and will lead to losses in the future. Remember they don't have to use market-to-market evaluations(rule change)and to cover this large amount they place less than one percent to cover any losses. This is how they were able to show a profit. Where are the regulators?
Bottom Line: President Obama calls someone making $250,000 middle class. Romney says he did not make much money with speaking engagements last year(over $300,000). Together they show that they do not know or understand what it means to be an American today because to me if you make that kind of bread, you are on the road to being rich. We need to form a new political party that reflect our real needs, issues and wants. I have the perfect name. It is...

Friday, January 6, 2012

Tis the Season for Fruitcake...LIARS and CROOKS

Do you enjoy the seasonal treat called fruitcake? It is a hard cake with artificial flavors. If you're like most, it is a pass. In my life the only person I knew who enjoyed eating it was my older brother. In fact I believe that it began the concept of re-gifting. You know, you get something that you don't want, put it in the closet, give it to someone else next Christmas. I believe people store it in the freezer until the next holiday season and there it is on the table, looking fresh, unopened, waiting patiently for that one in a million.
In Iowa it is the season for fruitcake. It is quite a competitive market. Mitt Romney collected the largest share with 25%, however he spent the most money for those results. Think about this. The winner was rejected by 75% of the voters, however he did garner the support of an old, out of fashion brand, John McCain. Funny isn't it that the second largest share of the market, Rick Santorum, spent the second most amount of money. For traditionalist, Ron Paul just spoke about his substance ingredients and he placed third. There were a few other brand name fruitcakes on the Iowan market. Newt Gingrich utilized the re-gifting concept and people are wise to it. He probably will go out of business. Michele Bachmann said no matter what, I got a ticket to South Carolina to expand. I knew of course that she was not going to New Hampshire. Why? Because she appeared there once and declared that she was happy to be in the state that fired the shot heard around the world(Ding-Dong Award Winner). True to her word, she cancelled her expansion plans for South Carolina. The fruitcake business is extremely rough. In New Hampshire Jon Huntsman is trying out his family recipe, but he probably won't grab too much results as this is a small populated state and as I pointed out previously only one in a million respond to it.
LIARS and CROOKS: This week the first in the New Year goes to President Obama. It is not that he fits the guidelines to L&C, but worse, he supports laws that violate our constitution. We arrived at this from the past years results. He signed, although he stated regrettably, a new law that allows our military to detain any US citizen without charges just gut feelings of the administration. This tells me that I could be in trouble real soon. He also signed into law and yes again regrettably, his health care bill which will make young people criminals. Why? What is the most pressing concern for eighteen year old: a car, a date, health insurance? If you answered a or be, you too could become a criminal because the law says you must buy health insurance. Finally, he signed and yes regrettably, the Dodd Frank Bill. This act is to prevent another financial crisis among other aspects. The Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act begins now, but here is the funny or not so funny part. The president signed into law a bill that is not even written in its entirety. Who in their right mind would make a law that is not even written? The sad answer is our president, the Democrat fruitcake.