Sunday, July 15, 2012

Three Cities Down With A Nation To Follow...L&C

Tired of seeing the Obama jobs ad? The one where the president claims that CEO Romney made jobs in China, India and elsewhere. Of course, challenger Romney counters with his ad saying, the president had a record stimulus and the results: poor job numbers, record deficits with no growth plan. Too bad that neither candidate knows how bad it really is on Main St.
Three Cities in Two Weeks
have defaulted in California, our leading industrial state. If the best can't make it, who can? Folks, it is not just California, it is happening and has been happening throughout the nation. If I were running for the highest office in the land, I'd have a plan to help and secure our future. What do we get? He said this on such-a-such date. Neither candidate understands the dangers of our economic situation that is becoming an epidemic with no answers to address the red flags of a serious virus that is spreading within our states.
Orange County
back in 1994 set off the early warning with its bankruptcy, but anyone suggesting future problems was drown out in criticism. When Jefferson County first flirted with bankruptcy and eventually fell into default, Meredith Whitney in 2010 was abused by the media for saying that she saw many more municipalities going bust in the near-term. Just last week, ex-New York State Assemblyman, Brodsky said these defaults are just a tip-of-the-iceberg. Know what? They are both right!
Wisconsin Recall
ended up being a plus for Governor Walker and a big negative for union labor. I agree that government workers do receive an excessive pay package when you add up all the benefits with pension on top of the list. However, this is not the cause for the financial problems that exist today. When you look under the hood, it is either a serious job loss or the housing bubble that has caused revenues to decline to a negative cash flow and either Wall Street or Washington or both is the root cause for these problems. Look at Central Falls, Rhode Island! They lost their textile plant. Now, they are losing their standard of living. Washington did not protect American workers! They do in every globalized nation except here. Scranton, Pa is in the cross hairs for the same reason. Guess what they are doing?
Taxes Up 80%
and all city workers receive minimum wage. Can't afford that. Can you? Did Obama or Romney address this situation?  How about Harrisburg, Pa.? They were rejected in bankruptcy court because the city was too small, but the state put them under a receiver. Personally, I'd take Welker of the Pats. He has great hands.
Mammoth Lakes, Vallejo, Stockton, California are all screaming the same tune. We cannot afford to live! These cities will continue to suffer because their states are also suffering for the same reasons. This is not new as the same thing happened during the Great Depression. Cities bought time by doing accounting tricks just like Washington is doing today with the budget and our national deficit. The only difference is local governments must balance their budget by law whereas the federal government gets a bye. During the depression the disease of financial engineering did not surface until 1934 or 1935. Whitney was right! Michigan has four cities under state management. Read financial tricks! The list of who is next has all our names on it. Chicago suffers because of the cost of its school system. Detroit because of autos. Warren, Wi. is using a state loan to hide the truth, but this has only increased the debt of the city, just like the Federal Reserve increases our debt on a daily basis making the D-Day only that much more severe. Miami just built a new ballpark, but still suffers declining revenues on real estate. The same thing in Providence,R.I. The same thing in Menasha, Wi. The same thing at different levels in every location within our nation even rich areas like Suffolk County, Long Island, where everyone pays at least $10,000 in real estate taxes and still there is budget shortfalls. Don't expect the two candidates to address this problem because then, they would have to reveal the truth which is to put America first.
LIARS and CROOKS: Wall Street and our media which puts a positive spin on the real status of our economy and the health of our corporations. Alcoa was the first to report. They lost money, but they made more than the estimates. Media praises company. Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase gave a new estimate for the financial loss due to trading in the last quarter. First, he said $2 billion. Now, he says it is closer to $5 billion. Like I said when it was first reported that it will have to be more because it is an insurance derivative and these things don't end in a day or week. Many companies prereported lower incomes and when they meet these lower figures, Wall Street and the media gushes for joy. Where is the voice of truth? If they won't allow an opposing view, how will they achieve a creative response when the sad day arrives? Peace!

Sunday, July 8, 2012

POISON PILLS...L&C

Has it been that long since I wrote in this blog that if the Supreme Court says that corporations have the same rights to express themselves as individuals, well then, I say that they should also suffer the three strike felony clause to put habitual felons behind bars for life or for corporations, eliminate their license from doing business, permanently!
Open the Envelope!
We have a winner. GlaxoSmithKline, step up to the podium! The British drug maker pleaded guilty to health fraud and they paid $3billion in penalties. When you look at this case, you end up asking yourself, what is the difference between a snake oil salesman of the past and a GSK of today?
Only the Label.
Two of the three pills cited were PAXIL and WELLBUTRIN. GSK had their people use every technique in the book, including bribery. Your patient has bipolar disorder? Take one of the two antidepressants from above. If you ask me, they're both totally depressing! Your patient suffers from obesity? Use our pill. Your patient has sexual dysfunction? It covers that too! How about attention deficit disorder? It's a miracle! It can help with that too! And then, there is the third pill, AVANDIA.
We Forgot
to mention that you could suffer a heart attack and die! Small, little detail that got lost in the paperwork. This crime is a slap in the face to America as this is a foreign company and these international companies, as well as our domestic companies will continue to do anything for a buck as in this case where the total bucks for the three pills was over $26billion. Now, how do you feel about that new pill you are about to take? Are you going to wait for the Supreme Court to help? Won't happen in this life span unless my book gets published with a cure for the Supreme Court.
LIARS and CROOKS: Gotta give it up to old "Helicopter" Ben and his back up group, the Federal Reserve. Not only is the real reason for low interest rates is to help the banks stabilize and for our federal government with its ever increasing financing of the debt by making it cheaper and allowing them to kick-the-can-down-the-road, but this new aspect that shows how diabolical the Federal Reserve really is. Did you realize that Social Security buys long-term bonds to help payout their claims? The social security agency counts on receiving so much interest to balance their trust fund which dates to a 1960 law which says, "if the social security trust fund gets depleted, then a 25% pay cut will automatically go into effect." Ben is killing social security with his low rates and he is exchanging normal long-term rates that range between 5 to 6% with new ones that are 1.25 to 1.75%. At this rate the fund will die by 2023 and everyone will suffer a 25% less payout at that time. We already know that the present payouts are not enough to live on, what if you got 25% less? END the FED! 

Sunday, July 1, 2012

PREDICTION: Future Financial Meltdown...L&C

There was a little sipet in the news this past week and even those who are aware of it were distracted by the bigger media event, the Supreme Court ruling on the Affordable Health Care Act. In both cases we all lose. I will not add my two cents into the ObamaCare debate, however I see a financial catastrophe in the Barclays conviction and what it implies and what is not stated.
Manipulation
by Barclays Bank to "fix" the Libor Rate which is the standard used internationally by businesses and consumers. It is a $360 trillion market. Barclays did it to increase profits and to hide their internal bank health. They were fined by agencies in the U.S. and Great Britain. Guilty of falsifying records, Barclays was fined a total of $451.4 million. One U.S. agency received $200 million and one British authority received $92.8 million and the U.S. Justice Department pulled in another $160 million for its criminal division, but of course, no criminal charges will be filed. How many years do you think you or I would have received for the same crime?
Hypocrisy!
Do you want to know where it began? Derivative traders requested the scheme to the Barclay people and came up with the idea to set the loan rate which in turn affected derivative trading. Will those fines ever make their way into the pockets of the traders who were correct in their estimation of the market rate, but they were cheated by the behind-the-scenes affairs of these criminals who should be behind bars and banned from trading? No! And yeah, I know that you and me are not in this type of market, but it reflects on all the behind-the-scene actions that are rigging our markets today and killing free enterprise.
Enron
wrote the book and it is becoming gospel for greedy devils like the following Ding-Dong.
One Trader
stated in a email that he would use the firepower of his treasury to control...which translates to me as this: there are loose cannons out there with big egos who have no idea of the catastrophe that they could set in motion. I have stated to you on many occasion, the total value of all the worlds economies is around $65 trillion and these derivative traders are doing transactions over $500 trillion. No one can save us from one mistake and if their is one mistake, it could set a domino chain reaction equivalent to weapons of mass destruction. Thank you, Warren Buffett. By the way the investigation into Barclays Bank was for the period from 2007 until May 2009. Ha! Another sad joke. There are other institutions on the investigative list: Citigroup, Royal Bank of Scotland, Group Plc, UBSAG, Lloyds and Deutsche BankAG. At this pace the above group will pay their fines around 2016. Yea! All this leads to another banking problem, see L&C below.
LIARS and CROOKS: News surfaced that JPMorgan's derivative loss could be in excess of the $2 billion stated by its CEO, Jamie Dimon(I called that one at that time). However, did you know this? Jamie Dimon is the headman at the New York Fed which is one of the 12 districts that makeup the Federal Reserve? It is charged with the health and actions of the regions banks which includes JPMorga. Question: is their conflict of interest for Jamie Dimon? You betcha! You know I'm for ending the Fed, however that meme is slow to take, but in the meantime, the regulations of the Fed should be changed from a banker watching his fellow bankers into a small businessman watching the bankers. End the Fed!

Sunday, June 24, 2012

A Floating Death Tomb for 5,000...L&C

This just in: Obama raised $60 million for his reelection campaign and Romney out did him with his donors to the tune of $76 million. Can you believe those numbers? This is the kicker and it relates to this piece. Those figures are not the end total, but just the collections for the month of May. Is it any wonder that these two along with every other politician has no sense of reality when it comes to costs like our deficit or no understanding how difficult it is for the average working American to make ends meet? They argue on tax codes with $250,000 as middle class. Get real! Better yet, get out of town!
U.S. Navy
has a very proud tradition and I cried the first time I saw the FIVE SULLIVAN'S. I could easily invoke the "Duke"or going back to our war of independence, John Paul Jones or maybe even today, with admiral Michael Mullen, the ex- Joint Chiefs of Staff who more than once has stated that our debt is the biggest threat to our security. This is a story not only about wasteful spending, but about stupid wasteful spending that the military performs on a daily routine.
Gerald Ford Carriers
are the new class of aircraft carriers for our navy. They will carry a load of 5,000 service-people, x-amount of aircraft and other new gadgets to shock and awe our opponents. They will carry a price tag of $42 billion and counting. Why do you say, and counting? Because even hawks like John McCain have decried the rising costs for these warships which are still five years from completion and they have already escalated 18%. Each carrier will cost $27 billion to build and operate.
Debate?
There is no discussion, no accountability. If the cost rises, they just include it in the bill with a note, sorry, we had some rising prices due to unforeseen problems. Their budget will always receive increases. One reason for the blank check is the fact that 45 states are involved in one form or another with the making of these weapons. There are only (5)five states that can oppose the military. This is diabolical as was the making of a professional service which eliminated the national draft which ended the political issue.
One Very Serious Flaw
the aircraft carrier as a military weapon is obsolete. Let me repeat that. Just like a wooden ship versus a steel ship, the aircraft carrier is outdated due to technology. With the advent of smart bombs, drone attack craft, ballistic and cruise missiles, the carrier is a sitting duck floating on the water and it will sink with 5,000 troops, pilots and aircraft included. The cost is off the charts both physically and mentally. The Chinese, for example, have already built their own space station. They have shot down a satellite. It is arrogance that says they or anyone else cannot build a weapon with any of the above technological features. It is greed and stupidity that does not look to the future like when in 1920, someone had to convince the military that an aircraft carrier was the future of warfare. And then, there is the phony code of security clearance. The military had the A-Bomb stolen from them. They find out fives years after the crime that military secrets were being sold in the black market. Security? Ha! Don't forget the hype about being the only superpower. This is the same military complex that showed itself in Desert One with aircraft that couldn't fly or crashed, helicopters that wouldn't work and the poor quality of training. It's all about their pay, health plan and pension. As the good admiral has stated, George Washington in his Farewell Address or President Eisenhower, the military is dangerous to a free republic.
Real Dangers
are in cyber, on our borders and satellite communication. All these things receive low priority from the military. One real, sad reason is because when a crisis arises from one of these aspects, the military will use it to ask for more money. These people have no real ability and are nothing more than greedy bureaucrats who are placing our soldiers into a certain death and another struggle for our navy like Pearl Harbor.
LIARS and CROOKS: Again, it goes to President Obama. He wins for the third week in a row. Wow! I have seen my Yankees hit back-to-back-to-back home runs, but with L&C, this is a first. What happened? Well, Congressman Darrell Issa, the Republican has been investigating the "Fast & Furious" which was the selling of guns by TSA under the Attorney General, Holder's, leadership. The stupid idea like all these bureaucrats develop was to sell guns to gangs on our border to see if they made their way up to the drug cartels. And they did with the killing of two US agents to which began the investigation. Issa says that Holder is withholding documents with information on the episode. We lost two agents. What about the 40,000 lives in Mexico? So, how is Obama involved? He joins the circus because he has leaked to the press that he will invoke "executive privilege." Funny, there is no such provision in the constitution and that makes him the winner. I believe the reason is because the public will become outraged with the whole affair and it will reflect on the president in a presidential year. All about image! Not what is right and that is why I always say, "End the Fed!"

Sunday, June 17, 2012

1st Truth:40% Loss & Back to Lies...L&C

There was a report released this past week from the Federal Reserve of all institutions that was the first real truth about the American economy and state of affairs. If it were, say for example, in a another nation with the similar effects from the financial crisis, I'm sure that the people of Spain could relate and the Greek nation that is entering elections today, would utilize it as a force to determine who to vote for to correct their economy and way of life.
The report stated that the average American loss almost 40% of their asset value due to the destructive forces of the financial crisis. It goes further to say that as of 2010, the average asset value of our nation declined to $77,300 from $126,400 in 2007. It implies the dangers to government revenues due to unemployment, however there is no mention of the added hopelessness to recover due to unemployment.
Talk show BS!
If you listen to the airwaves, pundits from both sides of the aisle blame the other party and provide "facts" dating to either Clinton for the donkeys or Reagan for the elephants. Authors fill the gaps with their latest work to add authority and fairness for these shows. In pieces like, Screwed: the Undeclared War Against the Middle Class, these writers make a persuasive argument. However, in my unpublished work:The Evolution of Democracy: the Book of Multiple Ideas and Predictions, I was saying the same argument back in 2008 except the conclusions you read here won't be heard anywhere else.
In fact, I go back further, all the way to 1973 and even the Marshall Plan after WWII. Americans work harder, longer and for less pay with higher productivity than their counter-parts in Europe and Japan who benefited from world trade before China entered the fray. It's funny that 1973 stands out as the turning point or tripping point in the American economy. It was the last year of strength in labor unions. They lost and so did the nation. We went from manufacturing to a service economy due to the lack of protection from our own government and the creativeness of our nation. The problem  is the military eats up our budget and destroys our dollar. This needs to end. We are not the police force for the world.
When you combine the two negatives with the new service paycheck which is lower than a manufacturing check, well, your standard of living declines. This is the real truth and bottom line.
Baby Boomers
are going to have to work longer because of this loss of wealth as they enter retirement age. Old Helicopter Ben says the economy will add jobs by 2014. What he was really saying is when the baby boomers retire, jobs will open up. The Federal Reserve gave an honest report, however they did not say that they were the cause of all our problems by destroying the value of the dollar and encouraging debt. End the Fed!
LIARS and CROOKS: Again, to President Obama. He passes an executive act called the Dream Act which says if illegal immigrant children are in good standing in this country, well, they can stay. One, I thought that the constitution stated that only Congress shall institute law. Secondly, the President is over-stepping Congress. This is tyranny. And, isn't it amazing that the president takes a stand four years into office at election time. He didn't do this to get the Hispanic vote. It is the right thing to do. Yeah, get out of town!

Monday, June 11, 2012

Contraction:Them=Stimulus, Me=Tariffs...L&C

The pundits are getting fidgety in their chairs on TV. The reasons are multiplying. One, the volume on the Big Board is stronger on the down days and weaker on the up days. Two, the global community isn't helping either when for instance, the Euro members reveal one financial crisis after another as they play musical chairs with the winner getting a chance to play Russian roulette with a loaded gun. On the other side of the world, Premier Wen of China is worried. He is cutting interest rates and putting up some stimulus. Australia joined with an interest rate cut. India is the first BRIC nation to face a ratings downgrade and of course, the granddaddy of them all, the Fed, is on watch with everyone guessing about QE3.
History Does Repeat
Whenever there has been an economic slowdown since WWII, the Fed has pumped money out of thin air and our government assists by launching various stimulus spending programs from transportation, construction, infrastructure or tax benefits.. In fact, I could argue that we no longer have a free capitalist economy, but a socialist government sponsored interventionists economy. The financial crisis of 2008 revealed once again the main reason that the Fed exists, to aid the banking industry. It wasn't the first or will it be the last time unless we terminate it. Whether you are a small business owner or investor one must be aware of how Wall Street interacts with the market, the Fed, Global Central Bankers, Energy Cartel, the Media's psych spin or Government regulations affect on things. These factors more or less have been in play for the past 60 years. No matter how you are introduced to the people "in know" their creative idea is this: more debt is the solution to debt problems. Today for instance, we have people like Peter Orszag, you know, the ex-CBO who spoke out about the dangers from the deficit. Well, his true colors came out last week when he said a little more stimulus won't hurt. We can worry about the budget later. How about Clive Cook, the Simpson-Bowles advocate. He now wants some stimulus. Of course, you can pick and choose your favorite Keynes economic analyst like Paul Krugman who continually complains that the first stimulus was not enough and we need more. Like I said, tt is always more with these people. Spain just received $125 billion more to cover their asses which makes me ask this. If you cannot pay your debts with your present revenues, how can doubling down on your debt solve your problem? It can't. Look at our history. We added a growing total of $16 trillion of known debt with another $70 trillion in unfunded debt. In reading this we grew another billion give-or-take.
 LBJ began the mess with tax and spend with his Great Society. We doubled down with Reagan, later with Bush and yet again, with Obama without ever addressing the cause. These ideas are like a drug addict. The shot relieves but, the relief gets shorter and shorter and more and more chemical is needed to obtain relief. There is also the problem with capitalism that it demands new to replace the old.
Albums, VCR, Typewriter
and you can think of many more. According to IDIS World there are 200 industries in decline in the US, but not all of them are due to innovation. Textile Mills are down 50% and China benefits. They control one-third of the world production with cheap labor and government subsidies. Record stores are in ICU for obvious reasons, but Mobile Homes dealers are dying too. Facing cheap paper and rising costs, they are down 73% in the last ten years. The Internet is killing newspaper circulation, but don't overlook the fact that people cut out buying the daily newspaper just to save, especially when gas prices rise.
Layoffs
are coming and even in places that use to be full proof like health care, police and administrative support. Peter Schott and Ben Polak, both Yale economic professors, blame the slowness of the latest recovery on government cutbacks. I have a different view and I am from a small New York college in Dobbs Ferry.
Felix Zulauf
a market legend agrees with me that all of the above ideas are failed exercises and only by fixing the core problem will generate a solution. We probably differ with the core choice.
TARIFFS!
and only tariffs will solve our problem. What about retaliation? We export what they need and it is less than 14%. Protect the 86%. They need us. We don't need them. We only need to import oil and coffee and fairly soon we won't need to import oil. (Yea!) A by-product of tariffs is a lower deficit.(Double yea!!)  By the way the world uses them to the max along with currency manipulation. The average tariff on American products in China is 25%. A Jeep cost over $100K. Can you imagine? They ban certain products. You cannot buy a Harley there or a Bud anywhere in Germany. A pink grapefruit cost $8 in Japan and the list goes on-and-on. There is no such thing as free trade. The only way to protect our jobs, economy and way of life is to put tariffs on imports so that we stand a fair chance to compete or we will all be in the ICU as well as the present 200 industries.
LIARS and CROOKS: Repeat Winner! President Obama because he found out about two programs that President Bush hid from everyone. The drones began with Bush and Obama doubled their budget. The other begins a new terror for all of us with the "Olympic Games." This is cyber warfare. The CIA, NSA or some Pentagon agency started a virus to attack Iran and their nuclear program to slow it down. This escalation will only come back to make us all suffer as our airlines, utilities and other outlets will be hacked and or contaminated with viruses. This is very bad and like the advent of the A-Bomb puts us all in danger.

Sunday, June 3, 2012

TV Everywhere Is Coming...L&C

Have you heard of TV Everywhere? You will...and soon. It is expected that millions of Americans will be using it for the first time with the London Olympics this summer. It will allow the viewer more control to view the events that would appeal to individual viewers. It can be used on all your tech gadgets. This aspect will make the Olympic viewing more entertaining and more interesting because of options and choice which TV Everywhere provides.
Synacor Inc.
is the only pure play on the stock market in TV Everywhere. SYNC was an IPO back in February of this year. It is a profitable company that became public at the right time since many cable companies like FIOS will be using SYNCs platform. NBC who will carry the 2012 Olympics will soon be promoting its sponsorship and TV Everywhere.
You Have To Eat
and that is one reason why I am introducing you to SYNC. With jobs scare and ten year T-Bills now paying 1.5% or less than inflation, we all could use a little bounce. I will reveal the other two reasons in a moment, but let me digress here to explain myself. I have mixed emotions about influencing people about a stock selection. If it fails, I not only suffer economically, but emotionally because my conscious will bother me, especially at bedtime. I have offered very few stock picks. I mostly choose between food and energy because I understand their fundamentals which leads back to investing.
Two Camps
in investing. The first which controls more than half the market centers on a companies product in relationship to profit margin, sales growth and the economy as a whole for that product. This is fundamental thinking. The first two paragraphs on SYNC is fundamental analysis. I consider myself an experienced trader, but I still have a long way to go.
The other side to investing centers on charts, price and volume. I follow Tom O'Brien of TFNN.com. These analytic traders do not need to know anything about a company, not even its name. They can project a price target solely from chart reading. I have looked at the price action and volume of SYNC after I was made aware of the company from National Inflation Association(NIA). They had all the fundamental info. I have done the homework on the technical. I like stocks that I can understand the fundamental and the charts indicate a positive trend. Like Tom O'Brien says,"if more people are in the store to buy, the stock rises and if nobody is buying and returning product, the stock will decline." On Friday the stock market had a terrible day as well as SYNC. It was down 18.71% to $11.95. Are you crazy? A stock that is down that much? Still, the stock was up for the week with more up volume than down volume which also shows relative strength which is another analytic indicator.
This Week
SYNC will be in the business news because they are presenting at the Digital Living Conference in Dallas and speaking at the 7th Annual Needham Internet & Digital Media Conference in New York. These two events will only add to showcase the company, which by the way reported 2Q revenues up 58% from the 2Q of 2011. They report next on 22 July 2012. I expect higher revenues and super guidance because of the upcoming Olympics. The other two reasons are thus. I have a self interest in SYNC because I have purchased shares and I would hope that by now, dear readers that you have a little faith in me to speak the truth and I'd like all of you to profit as well as me. Disclaimer: do not buy because I purchased or indicated for you to purchase until you have professional advice. Nevertheless, now you have ammo to question your professional. Good trading.
Liars and Crooks: This week we return to Helicopter Ben. Bernanke was appearing before Congress when Ron Paul asked him if gold was money. Ben said it wasn't. Well, lo and behold, this past week, Germany said that they would make direct loans to needy Euro members provided that they put 20% down like our old home loan applications except Germany demaned the down payment be in gold. So, it must be better than money, Ben. End the Fed!