Monday, October 8, 2012

Election Lunch: Corrupt Sandwich...L&C

The US is noted for fast food and in the past week we received a sandwich to digest that resembled an OREO cookie. We were force fed junk food. Fittingly, starting with the Fed who are the outside layer since they are not elected and have undo power over the US economy, as they announced that they were going to enact QE3 with no end time table or date if you will.
This led to a debate both pro and con to QE3 merits, not withstanding the timing being so close to a national election to which this action impact favors the president casting another doubt about the unbiased nature of the Fed.
Your wish sandwich inside makes dry toast look gourmet. Romney, in the presidential debates, served Obama humble pie for desert. This gave the challenger a boost and maybe Obama was not the right man for the job.
The bottom of your sandwich comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They made their monthly report on Friday. Bear with me dear reader for one minute. You see I have to set the price or numerical numbers that correlate this menu. Prior to the BLS report, the unemployment rate in the US was 8.1%. Now, it takes 150,000 jobs or lack of to move just one tick. The BLS announced that 114,000 jobs were created in September and that the unemployment rate lowered to 7.8%. What?!
Who Does This Help?
Can you see the phoniness? The B.S.?  It will take more than a TUMS to digest this lunch.
Conspiracy
Maybe not in the traditional sense, but definitely manipulation. The BLS said that they use two ways to reach their conclusions. First, they check with known sources like manufacturing which actually lost jobs. Then, they call on households to get a second opinion which is their second step. This is where the corruption takes place. You see all they have to do is check with state and local agencies to see if they had new schools, were hiring and things of that nature. Then, they make local calls in areas where the info looks positive. Suddenly, you get a good report. To make the numbers jive, the BLS showed 652,000 part-time jobs in September. This is how they moved three ticks in their report. If anyone can live on part-time wages, God bless them because I can't. This is why dear reader that I say all these agencies need to be reformated and start all over with new people because all we get now is massaged facts that the staus quo uses to control us.
Liars and Crooks:If you watched the presidential debates, it is obviously apparent. Romney says one thing and Obama says that is not what he said. He means this to which Romney says no, I mean this and you are wrong to which the president says, no you are wrong. The only thing that is right is for all of us to see that neither of the two parties will do anything or knows anything that will help America. Let's pray and hope a new party begins that reflect what America truly needs and follows with the thinking of Jefferson, Madison, Adams and Franklin. Peace.

Monday, October 1, 2012

Dow Transport: Fed Fiat Roadblock...L&C

As the market enters the last quarter, it must first pass its toughest month. October's declining records include the 1929 Crash, the 1987 meltdown and many, many other stress moments. The pundits still shout that the market will reach its record highs before the year ends. They discount all the obstacles like a slowing global market, the debasing of currencies to maintain export market share, social unrest in Europe, the Middle East and elsewhere, energy disruptions due to political actions, food costs along with other aspects of inflation due to the debasing of currencies with fiat money, the weakness in national labor markets that has unemployment rising, tensions building in the face of poor leadership that only responds to the banking industry and governments that are cash poor and deficit rich. The length of that sentence alone tells you that they are skating on thin ice. Here is something else.
Dow Theory
says that the industrial index and the transport index must move in tandem to reflect true harmony within the market. If they both rise, all is well. If they both decline, a bottom will be reached at the same time. If they divert, something is afoot. This divergence is a sign that there is trouble ahead. Dear reader, the industrial average has been climbing all year, but the transport index has stayed in a consolidating range and has decoupled from the industrial average. It is saying that one of the above obstacles or some other new obstacle will appear and the market will correct to the downside.
Another Aspect
I just read a report that sheds a new idea to answer this divergence. If you look at the market, say in 1970 and you add the average GDP of the US for the last 42 years, you would have a market industrial average around 8400 to 9000. By the way the US average growth was about 3.3% per year. At present the average is 13,500. How can this big a discrepancy exist?   
Fiat Money
is the answer. The Fed along with central banks throughout the world have flooded their markets with cheap dollars. They have debased currencies and the markets have adjusted this inflationary aspect. A hundred shares of xyz today goes for $50 per share, however that same company could have been purchased in 1970 at $5.00 per share. The 1970 dollar could buy ten times the present dollar and this is how the Fed and fiat money steals from all of us.
Bottom Line
There will be a correction in the US market. It should lower the market to the 8400-9000 range, however keep in mind that when this event unfolds the same market forces will oppose the correction. They will have meetings of G-20s, different government agencies, government itself and all the present status quo players to stop what they will call a deflationary danger. They only recognise inflation as growth and there in is the problem. As it happens, gold will be a great buy at a much lower price than today. As always, "End the Fed!"
Liars and Crooks: The two rivals for the presidency will meet in a nationally televised debate on Wednesday. Debate is what they call it, however it is more hooray for my guy and little substance. For example, they both will preach that they will if elected, provide more jobs and restore the "American dream." However, both will not provide a blueprint to achieve their promise. I'll tell you right here and now, if you what jobs, we need to place tariffs on imports to protect the producer as well as the worker and neither candidate will say that. Both political parties are liars and crooks and as patriots we need to establish a new political party that represents the people.

Monday, September 24, 2012

Dodd-Frank Act:Dangerous Unintended Consequences...L&C

I've spoken before about the this foolish law. It was signed by the "appeaser" President Obama even though the  statues of the law that was passed by an equally stupid Congress, were still not completely written. Well, one of those unwritten, fine print aspects has been revealed. This has the word CRISIS screaming out of it.
Because our leaders are not true leaders, but party line pup its that tow the line, no one had the courage to oppose the banking industry, seek criminal charges where applicable and most importantly, put in place regulation that makes the banking industry and related industries like insurance reveal their transactions with bonafide accounting in correlation to derivatives.
Derivative Market
is a mind boggling $648 trillion dollar casino. Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase have together over $140 trillion on their balance sheet. Now, the US economy totals are around $14 trillion and the world figures would hit about $65 trillion. Folks, these people have total disregard for you, me or reality. If one small aspect in one contract goes wrong, then the chain reaction will destroy that entire contract with the possibility to effect other contracts and so on until a domino effect destroys the whole market. JPMorganChase just experienced this problem last quarter had it cost them over $4 billion. It was small and they were able to contain it, but what if it was a big? There is no one, no company, no nation that can pay off the compounded debts because 648t is 10 times 65t, give or take, whatever. There was only one person, Brooksley Born who spoke about the dangers of the derivative market when it began and Fed Chief Greenspan did away with her. Dear reader, the Fed and central banks everywhere are not for the people, but the banking industry. The value of the dollar has lost 95% since the Fed began and they have demonstrated countless times that they are here to bailout the banks when they fail. "Privatize the profits and socialize the losses" is their true motto.
How does this play into the Dodd-Frank Act? Keep in mind that because our so-called leaders lack the courage to face the banking industry head on, they have a back door solution. This is the danger.
Collateral Rule
They said that from now on, the traders of derivatives must have a backup security to their contracts. This security must be recognized as a top line asset. The law would allow gold, US Treasuries or other top-of-the-line assets for collateral. This falls in line with the Fed's action to push lower the interest rate for mortgages, which will drive up the price for housing and return the economy back to the status quo prior to the crisis of 2008. The problem as I see it is this. If, there is a run on a contract that is in peril, then the liquidating center would own the security asset, say gold. These centers clear their books on a daily basis which implies that the security, in this example, gold, would be sold at market and the proceeds placed on the closing book. This will cause a serious drop in the price of gold or US Treasuries or whatever asset is used. They are creating new pressures in the market for top rated assets as an unintended consequence of their actions. Forrest Gump would say,"stupid is as stupid does."
Liars and Crooks:Our two political parties for not having the courage to address the above, the military complex, free trade policies, the fiscal cliff or any serious issue in an intelligent, honest way.

Monday, September 17, 2012

QE3 & 10 States Drowning in Debt...L&C

Helicopter Ben dropped glops of dollars from his circus craft on the American economy last week. He says this action along with the recent past programs by the Fed has saved our nation from economic catastrophe. According to him, this action will spur the increase in employment. He does not admit the actions of the Fed itself were the cause for the original crisis, the lost in value of the dollar or the stealing of taxpayer's money through the hidden tax of inflation which will be even greater in the future due to QE3. The only thing that his actions has spurred is the increase in the value of gold and I see $2,000 an ounce in the future.
With the above being said, I noticed a report about the 10 states that on average have the highest individual debt and begs the question, how much higher can it go without severe delinquencies? Futhermore, the findings of the list shows that the debt standing is in well-to-do states, but there is no misery report showing the effects on the poor which reached a staggering 46 million on food stamps. Expenses are relative to income, but there is a tipping point for everyone and Ben, that includes nations as well.
Credit.com
released the findings from Experian. It reveals that most states have with their citizens a revolving debt load of about $25,000. Revolving debt is all credit cards and personal loan debt which means the figures would be so much higher since mortgage, auto and other debt instruments are not included.
Washington falls in tenth place and there average hits $26K per person. Keep in mind that disposable money is needed to pay this and other forms of debt. How do the unemployed pay their debt? I don't know, but I'm sure someone will do a paper on it at some time. So, we wait for that answer.
Vermont is next. This state has the lowest delinquency problems which means they know how to manage money.
Texas follows and it should be noted that this state has the highest auto debt which means that someday the new motto will be ..."Texas, the biggest delinquent."
Oklahoma, Virginia, Maryland, Colorado, S.Dakota, Wyoming and finally, Alaska.
Alaska hits the high bar at $30 per person, however like Vermont, their citizens handle money management well.
Liars and Crooks: Uncle Ben wins again! No, not a QB in the NFL, but the Chief of the Fed with QE3. He says this will lower unemployment, but what it does is allow the US to manage their $16 trillion of debt because we all know that QE1 and QE2 did not lower unemployment. What did Einstein say about insanity? Oh, yeah..."doing the same thing over and over again, seeking a different solution. END the FED!

Monday, September 10, 2012

Money for Nothing!?...L&C

...was a great line in a song back in the hippie days and with my present clouded mind, I can't give you the title and artist. Sorry. However, the theme is still strong especially during this presidential election cycle. After losing the contribution battle in July, President Obama raised over $110 million in August to beat Romney who collected another $100 million. Who has this kind of money? Why do they give it to hopefuls unless there is some sought of payback down the road? We know this because when a president gives a speech, the markets rarely are effected, however just an nuance from the Fed chief, Bernanke and the markets can explode or implode. This is a money for hire democracy. Don't like that evaluation? Check out this list and then ask, is money for nothing?
Top Ten List
The following 10 companies are leading the way with money for influence. This is from the Center for Responsive Politics. Remember the two biggest things that the aristocrats supported during their past hey-days was defense and banking.
Number one is a defense company. No surprise to me. Lockheed Martin donated $1.9m with a 60/40 split for the Republicans over the Democrats. They gave another $4m to lobbyists.
Number two is Bank of America. As Mel Allen would say, "How about that?" The two favorites of aristocrats are one, two in these findings. BAC gave $2.2m with a 70/30 split R over D. They gave $870,000 to lobbyists.
Next, another defense contractor, Honeywell. 65%R/35%D. $2.2m for lobbyists.
Huntsman Company. $2.3m, 100%R 
Microsoft. $2.9m with 65%D/35%R and another $1.8m for lobbyists.
Dreamworks. $2.4m with 99%D.
AT&T. $2.5m with a 65R/35D split. They also gave another $7m to lobbyists.
Comcast. $2.8m with a 65%D/35%R.
Goldman Sachs. $4.8m with a 70%R/30%D. They chipped in another $1.4m for lobbyists.
Lastly, Las Vegas Sands with 100%R. This makes sense when various agencies in the bureaucracy of government go on extravagant conferences, spending out of control with the only grief being the occasional nightly report on spending abuses. It is no wonder the Sands donated $11.7m and only $30,000 for lobbying.
LIARS and CROOKS:The Fed manipulating our currency, interest rates and the stock market. Check out this concept. It was reported that the average debt of $17,000 will take 35 years to re-pay with the minimum payment plan. Now, the Fed has reduced our interest rates under the lie of creating jobs by making borrowing cheaper, when in fact, he is reducing the interest payments on our national debt, so no one will notice and they can kick-the-can-down-the-road. How long will it take our government just to re-pay what Obama has added to the debt bill at $5tillion? The entire history of man. End the Fed!

Monday, September 3, 2012

The Battle for 1400...L&C

There is always a war going on within the market between the bulls and the bears. No, not Spain versus Russia or any other interpretation that only serves to confuse the average layman. It is the struggle to gain wealth by directing the stock market to your thinking about the economy. Within this conflict is the tools that flows big money.
Individuals no longer affect the market. The market moves from institutional money There are two camps to activation. The larger uses the basic supply and demand stats. The fundamentals of a companies product. The other is technical. Analysts watch charts with support and resistance lines to the price of a companies stock. They have many other indicators like volume (which I use)MACD, RSI, channels, etc. In a free market these two factors determine the trend, however markets are no longer free because government intervenes either directly or indirectly. This makes trading very difficult because you can be right and still be wrong due to some unforeseen intervention. This is the status of the US market at the moment.
That being said, there are other factors that affect the market. When the review of the market is given as news of the day, it focuses on the three main indexes, Dow, S&P and NASDAQ.
This is another, however, generally not talked about problem. These indexes are constantly being updated and changed. The reasons are many, but only one is talked about in the media. They say that to keep these indexes relevant and reflective of the economy, it is necessary to purge "old" industries like railroads and replace them with modern economy tools like technology. They do this also because of mergers or the buyout of a company that is going private.
What They Don't Say
is that many times these older companies are declining in value which will bring the index down in value and that is the real hidden reason that they adjust these indexes. This past week is a perfect example.
From Kitchen To Garage
including the clothes on your back come from this hallmark store. It is a staple for Malls, an anchor to shopping centers and I'll go one step further. I wager that each one of you, dear readers has something purchased from this store, but it was kicked out of the  S&P 500 Index this past week. Who? SEARS.
Why?
Because sales are down, profits are negative and this will lower the index average. You see, the people behind these indexes know that if the market falls below a support level, well, then there could be a correction or worse from the selling coming out of the technical camp. This is the behind the scenes battle to keep the market above the recent psych 1400 level. It needs this to become resistance in order to go higher.
This nothing new. In fact if you look at the oldest index, the Dow 30, you will only find one original member:GE. This is market manipulation and it is no different than the Fed, ECB or any other central bank or government action.
LIARS and CROOKS: Both political parties addressing the public about the platform of the opposing political party concerning Medicare. They both have distorted the truth about what their opposition plans to do with the health agency.

Saturday, August 25, 2012

Housing:Another Leak in Dam in Europe...L&C

The expression, "a man's home is his castle," is an important cultural point in America. This is crucial to understanding the effects of the housing crash in 2008. The pundits will inform you that on average 27% of our personal wealth is invested in our homes. This information is the same as those telling us that the recession is over when twenty percent of us still have their homes under water, when 8.3% is still unemployed and only 63% of the work force are actually working. News for you, buddy, this is a depression for all of the above.
Now, this piece is suppose to be about another overlooked problem for Europe. It is. Keep in mind that the US is the largest individual economy in the world and I'm using it as an example to correlate with the present situation in many European nations.
Market Economies
do not perform well while their national housing is collapsing. In the US consumers contribute to two-thirds of our economy. We are getting stable, but we are not doing well in spite of all the money the Fed has printed into our system. Housing is central to our economy, culture and standard of living. At the moment it is still a mess. This is the problem. Each nation is different, but their overall economies will reflect the generality of market economies. Now, a comparison with some European members.
UK and US
were on the same rising price for housing from 2001 until 2007 when cracks began to appear in the US leading to the crash. In Great Britain hosing took a small dive, corrected, continues to rise. Prices have doubled since 2001 which begs the question. Did the UK economy double? No! Did their demographics double? No! So, who is going to buy when sellers want to unload? Collapse time!
Spain
their prices soared even higher than the US or UK and they have fallen even lower. Spaniards hold 80% of their assets in their homes. With youth unemployment over 25%, a nation in economic recession, severe debt problems and falling home values who ya gonna call? GHOST BUSTERS!
France
housing prices doubled, but we can ask the same question about their economy. Recently, it has fallen to .02% and its population grew at .05%. The French keep 57% of their assets in their homes. I hate to tell them this, but delinquency rates tied to mortgages are reaching 15% and when the US crashed that same correlation reached 10%. As CCR would sing, "I see a bad moon rising".
Liars and Crooks:Old Helicopter Ben gets it again. A phony letter from him leaked to the press on Friday saying stimulus is being planned or to that affect which gave the market a rise along with Obama who needs and wants it to stay that way until the elections. Oh, by the way Bernanke's term ends this year. They are so phony! End the Fed!