According to every report concerning housing, the bottom has been reached and the slow, steady, upswing engineered by the Fed is under way. Really? Well, if that is so, what happens next?
I won't waste your time with the endless litany of positives, but I will remind you that it was the Fed in its policies that is the root cause of the housing crisis. It was "Helicopter"Ben who said that housing has never declined on a national scale. It was Ben who said that the Fed does not see a recession in 2008 and again, Ben who stated that the apparent crisis is contained in 2007. It is now the same Fed who takes the bows with this so-called recovery. By the way, the Fed does not see a new recession.
New Home
prices start on average at $304k, while existing homes sell at a national average of $231k. That is a nice spread and hedge funds are jumping all over it. In fact, one-third of all sales are from the foreclosure category. Buyers like the Blackstone Group are spending upwards of $100 million a week in 2012 and with eleven million homeowners underwater, the pickings are steady, especially when you do the math and of course, with the help from the Fed.
Fed
policy keeps rates low and the unintended consequence of their actions are forming a neo-serf society. You see, the old homeowner and now renter for the hedge funds, had a mortgage at 6% or higher. Losing his job, he could not afford the payments at around $1200 plus per month for piti(principle,interest,taxes and insurance). Blackstone and others buy on a short sale for $90k and with a low mortgage, have payments at around $350 per month. They rent to the former owner and now a serf for the corporation at $1,000 per month. The company says, "hey, your saving over $200 per month and you still get to reside in "your" home". Everyone is happy. I know Blackstone is with a 65% return which will last until the spread gets more interesting and or the rates begin to climb. Why? Because the Fed does not have an exit strategy. They are creating a new feudal society.
Corporate Flippers
If the rates rise, these same hedge fund groups will sell, flooding the market and at present, they have a $140k cushion, and rising with every price rise and it was 7% for 2012. This is bubble level.
They will also try to securitize their portfolio. In addition, when rates climb, bonds will suffer, causing another credit crisis because bonds have gone up for 30 years in a row which is the technique the Fed uses to hide our national deficit. You see, dear reader, as I state in my unpublished book, all things are related.
Historical
averages for home-price rises are from 2 to 4%. The excessive present rate is forming a new bubble if it continues. Bonds are also in danger and of course, this leads to our national deficits. Oh yeah, there is another by-product problem on the horizon. Because people are feeling better about the value of their homes, they are starting to use these same houses as ATMs to buy cars, which on average are 11 years in service. All things are related. This cannot end well...
Liars and Crooks:see book recommendation. Companies like Comcast and Time Warner have gotten government to give them exclusive control over our internet to the point where cities cannot get funding to supply their own network(if they wanted to add it along with electricity, water and sewerage). Modern society needs access just like every other utility. This is corruption!...and as always End the Fed!
Monday, February 11, 2013
Sunday, February 3, 2013
SUPER BOWL SUNDAY
...that says it all. This game is our cultural holiday and like it is known that God rested on the seventh day but no one knows the reason why. HE wanted to watch football!
I'm not happy about all the commercialization of the game. By that I mean the changing of the rules to allow more points, to speed up the action and the money flowing around what is no longer a game, but a business. Nevertheless, it is still the last competitive event that gives every team an equal chance to win.
If you look at basketball, you see the worse of money into a sport. How can you allow a top player to leave a team with no compensation? The ref's almost determine a game's outcome through the foul line. It is so phony, it is like wrestling. The bottom teams are the minor leagues for the top teams, especially the Lakers who just picked up the best point guard and center to add to Kobe&Co. which was another corrupt draft situation to bring Kobe to the team.
The only other sport that can say that is hockey, but then again, the ref's influence it...a lot.
Believe it or not baseball gives all teams a chance. You can argue that the Yankees buy players and they dominate the game, but they do not win every year. Yes, they contend and rightfully so, spoken like a Bronx Bomber, but the winner is usually out of left field.
Bottom line: this is a great day to spend with family and friends whether you like the sport or sports at all because love is the highest stage to life.
Oh yea, GO NINERS!
I'm not happy about all the commercialization of the game. By that I mean the changing of the rules to allow more points, to speed up the action and the money flowing around what is no longer a game, but a business. Nevertheless, it is still the last competitive event that gives every team an equal chance to win.
If you look at basketball, you see the worse of money into a sport. How can you allow a top player to leave a team with no compensation? The ref's almost determine a game's outcome through the foul line. It is so phony, it is like wrestling. The bottom teams are the minor leagues for the top teams, especially the Lakers who just picked up the best point guard and center to add to Kobe&Co. which was another corrupt draft situation to bring Kobe to the team.
The only other sport that can say that is hockey, but then again, the ref's influence it...a lot.
Believe it or not baseball gives all teams a chance. You can argue that the Yankees buy players and they dominate the game, but they do not win every year. Yes, they contend and rightfully so, spoken like a Bronx Bomber, but the winner is usually out of left field.
Bottom line: this is a great day to spend with family and friends whether you like the sport or sports at all because love is the highest stage to life.
Oh yea, GO NINERS!
Monday, January 28, 2013
Apple Down, Netflix Up, Why?...L&C
If you received 100 Apple shares for Christmas, you are down 100 points in value in one month. If you invested when all the guru's were on CNN, MSNBC, et al. back in September 2012 when Apple hit over $700, you lost 57% of your money. For those of you who laughed at my piece on 11 March 2012, when I was calling for a baked "Apple" at $640, buyer beware! The reasons are the same along with the map and other shortfalls of the IPhone5.
On the flip side, Netflix fell from grace too, all the way down to $52 a share. In just one month it has bounced back to over $170 and climbing. Why?
New TVs
come with a Netflix button on the remote and with the surge of TV Everywhere, young people are hitting the NFLX button, charging digital programming to their parents and grandparents. This is a fad and with economics the way they are, it won't last. I would not be long NFLX, although it will probably go a little higher according to Fibonacci retracement of 61.8%. The reasons are the same as for the decline in Apple.
Bottom line: Apple has a gap at 386 which will act as support. Netflix will decline with the next pullback. It will find support at around 110-115.
Long term both companies will face the same problem as our economy, the loss of the baby boomers dinero.
Liars and Crooks: This week again, it goes to Congress and our corrupt leaders. When the last minute deal was reached to avoid the fiscal cliff, Senator McConnell, Hatch and others placed a last minute loophole for a subsidy for a Big Pharma company, Amgen to the tune of over $500 million. Quess who pays? That's right! Us, the taxpayers. They use the deficit as their personal piggy bank while they all cry we need to cut the deficits. Amgen got its 74 lobbyist to act fast and to take advantage of the situation. This is twice as sad because just last month the government gave Amgen the biggest fine ever at $752 million for mis-representing one of their drugs. I do however have to acknowledge congressman Peter Welch(D-Vt.). He is aware! He is trying to pass a bill to overturn the Amgen loophole. God bless you, Sir!
On the flip side, Netflix fell from grace too, all the way down to $52 a share. In just one month it has bounced back to over $170 and climbing. Why?
New TVs
come with a Netflix button on the remote and with the surge of TV Everywhere, young people are hitting the NFLX button, charging digital programming to their parents and grandparents. This is a fad and with economics the way they are, it won't last. I would not be long NFLX, although it will probably go a little higher according to Fibonacci retracement of 61.8%. The reasons are the same as for the decline in Apple.
Bottom line: Apple has a gap at 386 which will act as support. Netflix will decline with the next pullback. It will find support at around 110-115.
Long term both companies will face the same problem as our economy, the loss of the baby boomers dinero.
Liars and Crooks: This week again, it goes to Congress and our corrupt leaders. When the last minute deal was reached to avoid the fiscal cliff, Senator McConnell, Hatch and others placed a last minute loophole for a subsidy for a Big Pharma company, Amgen to the tune of over $500 million. Quess who pays? That's right! Us, the taxpayers. They use the deficit as their personal piggy bank while they all cry we need to cut the deficits. Amgen got its 74 lobbyist to act fast and to take advantage of the situation. This is twice as sad because just last month the government gave Amgen the biggest fine ever at $752 million for mis-representing one of their drugs. I do however have to acknowledge congressman Peter Welch(D-Vt.). He is aware! He is trying to pass a bill to overturn the Amgen loophole. God bless you, Sir!
Monday, January 21, 2013
Inauguration:A Closer Look At OUR Democracy...L&C
Today, the reelection of President Obama became official. Senator Schumer(Dem.New York) was the M.C. of the affair. He, along with others praised our system that continues without conflict. A peaceful change of power and position in the state. They didn't mention that all members of Congress are rich. They are barely of the people, by the people in name only and do very little for the people.
The President spoke about the evolution of society that is a journey which is still a work in progress. I agree with that totally, however after four years of rhetoric, most of us know better than to put any credence in him because he is just another politician with promises for position and never completes the deal. He, like the other political party, signs executive orders for laws that are not passed by Congress which violates our constitution. He appeases;he doesn't lead. Spins the facts;not a statesman. To the tune of the great old Do-Wop song, MAYBE that is why I'm so hard on him. There is no change only status quo.
Maybe, that is why the crowd in attendance was less than half the first election. Maybe, the final popular vote showed the President received 15% less votes than his first campaign. Maybe, if you analyze the results, you realize that roughly only 21% of the population took part in the democratic process that wanted him to be reelected. It was only 19% of the voting population that wanted a return to the Republicans. In other words more than 60% of the total population didn't want either candidate and this, dear readers, is the root problem with our democracy.
Almost 320 Million
in our country. Obama received 69 million votes while Romney got 59 million. Do the math! Almost 200 million of us want better representation! Keep in mind that at least half of the votes for each candidate would come any way due to party affiliation. Our democracy is no democracy at all. We don't have any choices. This is why there is voter apathy. This is why I write my blog.
The journey is not complete until lobbyist and self-interest are exposed daily in the media(see L&C below). The journey is not complete until the military complex is silenced and we once again become a peaceful nation. The journey is not complete until families are protected. The journey is not complete until workers are protected. The journey is not complete until we return to the concepts of the Founding Fathers who wanted a gold backed currency. The journey is not complete until we protect our citizens chance for social mobility, so that we can be the best that we can be. Until the we end the Fed!
Liars and Crooks: One of the reasons why Mr.Smith Does Not Go To Washington is the fact that these liars and crooks do things differently than what we are taught in school about our system. One aspect is the filibuster. Tomorrow, our senate will take up the procedure process associated with this process. Do you realize that these bums have as a policy rule on voting for bills that can kill any subject matter, simply by stating that as a senator, I oppose this with a right to filibuster. Now, get this. This DING-DONG does not have to be present. His vote is electronic with no reason or name matched to it. It is possible that a lobbyist is meeting with this senator, makes a political donation, as the senator calls in the favor immediately, killing any real debate to the subject at hand. This is how our democracy works which is so sad that the founding fathers must be turning over in their graves.
The President spoke about the evolution of society that is a journey which is still a work in progress. I agree with that totally, however after four years of rhetoric, most of us know better than to put any credence in him because he is just another politician with promises for position and never completes the deal. He, like the other political party, signs executive orders for laws that are not passed by Congress which violates our constitution. He appeases;he doesn't lead. Spins the facts;not a statesman. To the tune of the great old Do-Wop song, MAYBE that is why I'm so hard on him. There is no change only status quo.
Maybe, that is why the crowd in attendance was less than half the first election. Maybe, the final popular vote showed the President received 15% less votes than his first campaign. Maybe, if you analyze the results, you realize that roughly only 21% of the population took part in the democratic process that wanted him to be reelected. It was only 19% of the voting population that wanted a return to the Republicans. In other words more than 60% of the total population didn't want either candidate and this, dear readers, is the root problem with our democracy.
Almost 320 Million
in our country. Obama received 69 million votes while Romney got 59 million. Do the math! Almost 200 million of us want better representation! Keep in mind that at least half of the votes for each candidate would come any way due to party affiliation. Our democracy is no democracy at all. We don't have any choices. This is why there is voter apathy. This is why I write my blog.
The journey is not complete until lobbyist and self-interest are exposed daily in the media(see L&C below). The journey is not complete until the military complex is silenced and we once again become a peaceful nation. The journey is not complete until families are protected. The journey is not complete until workers are protected. The journey is not complete until we return to the concepts of the Founding Fathers who wanted a gold backed currency. The journey is not complete until we protect our citizens chance for social mobility, so that we can be the best that we can be. Until the we end the Fed!
Liars and Crooks: One of the reasons why Mr.Smith Does Not Go To Washington is the fact that these liars and crooks do things differently than what we are taught in school about our system. One aspect is the filibuster. Tomorrow, our senate will take up the procedure process associated with this process. Do you realize that these bums have as a policy rule on voting for bills that can kill any subject matter, simply by stating that as a senator, I oppose this with a right to filibuster. Now, get this. This DING-DONG does not have to be present. His vote is electronic with no reason or name matched to it. It is possible that a lobbyist is meeting with this senator, makes a political donation, as the senator calls in the favor immediately, killing any real debate to the subject at hand. This is how our democracy works which is so sad that the founding fathers must be turning over in their graves.
Monday, January 14, 2013
New Mgt. Rules: 4 Us and White House...L&C
The Dodd-Frank Act enacted new rules that the banking industry must abide by to qualify for the government sponsored mortgages under Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. These rules are suppose to tighten the guidelines that buyers must prove that they can meet when seeking financing for new mortgages. The idea is to provide security for buyers and sellers of homes. What are they, you ask?
To Qualify
you must show that you possess income to be able to pay your mortgage with a 38% ratio with one weeks income within one month. The banks are allowed to stretch this ratio to 43% if the buyer has an excellent credit rating. Feel more secure? I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but back in the day, I use to be a real estate agent.
In Olden Days
you had a 25% ratio and the banks could stretch this to 33%, if you had no other outstanding obligations like excess debt with credit cards, car loans or things of that nature. If you had a good down payment, the banks could extend the ratio to 38%. So much for tightening the rules.
Now, the next big thing that our government faces is the debt ceiling. The Republicans say that they will not approve any higher national debt unless President Obama enacts an equal amount of cuts to government spending, especially under entitlements like Social Security and Medicare. To me, if both parties were serious, they would re-enact the pay-as-you-go legislation, which would at least hold the level of debt to the market interest rates. This thought also had me thinking that if President Obama had any real convictions on our debt, he would apply the new mortgage rules to our present debt with a plan to pay it off.
New 30 Year Mgt. for the White House
at present, we owe under known debt around $16 trillion. Yeah, I know that unfunded expenses like the entitlements, government sponsored entities, off the book liabilities are in excess of another $90 trillion, but one thing at a time.
Currently, we have over 300 million in population, however I will use the 300mil as a round number. In addition, the debt clock says that each household owes over $130,00 as their share of this national deficit. Again, I will use the round number of $130,000. Multiply the population by the individual share or 130,000. The result is the new mortgage amount or $39 trillion to which we divide by 30 years= the amount that our new budget must cut, tax with new revenues or a mixed combination every year for the next 30 years to pay off the present deficit. So, how much is it?
Glad, you asked. It is $1.3 trillion that needs to be paid this year and every year for 30 years. Bottom line: we are in big do-do or another way is the penmanship of the new Treasurer, Jack Lew nominated by President Obama. His style reflects the strength of the dollar. He looks like he his doodling with the letter "O" as in zero. Is that the real value of a dollar?
Liars and Crooks: the new movie, Zero Dark Thirty. It fails to acknowledge the sin of our present military leaders who used torture to seek info on Bin Laden and terrorist in general. The real truth is when the water board and other tortures started, a brave FBI agent walked out on the act. He stated, "that this is not the way America operates. This is how the bottom feeders act." The so-called true story does not reveal this or any conflicts pertaining to the military actions.
To Qualify
you must show that you possess income to be able to pay your mortgage with a 38% ratio with one weeks income within one month. The banks are allowed to stretch this ratio to 43% if the buyer has an excellent credit rating. Feel more secure? I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but back in the day, I use to be a real estate agent.
In Olden Days
you had a 25% ratio and the banks could stretch this to 33%, if you had no other outstanding obligations like excess debt with credit cards, car loans or things of that nature. If you had a good down payment, the banks could extend the ratio to 38%. So much for tightening the rules.
Now, the next big thing that our government faces is the debt ceiling. The Republicans say that they will not approve any higher national debt unless President Obama enacts an equal amount of cuts to government spending, especially under entitlements like Social Security and Medicare. To me, if both parties were serious, they would re-enact the pay-as-you-go legislation, which would at least hold the level of debt to the market interest rates. This thought also had me thinking that if President Obama had any real convictions on our debt, he would apply the new mortgage rules to our present debt with a plan to pay it off.
New 30 Year Mgt. for the White House
at present, we owe under known debt around $16 trillion. Yeah, I know that unfunded expenses like the entitlements, government sponsored entities, off the book liabilities are in excess of another $90 trillion, but one thing at a time.
Currently, we have over 300 million in population, however I will use the 300mil as a round number. In addition, the debt clock says that each household owes over $130,00 as their share of this national deficit. Again, I will use the round number of $130,000. Multiply the population by the individual share or 130,000. The result is the new mortgage amount or $39 trillion to which we divide by 30 years= the amount that our new budget must cut, tax with new revenues or a mixed combination every year for the next 30 years to pay off the present deficit. So, how much is it?
Glad, you asked. It is $1.3 trillion that needs to be paid this year and every year for 30 years. Bottom line: we are in big do-do or another way is the penmanship of the new Treasurer, Jack Lew nominated by President Obama. His style reflects the strength of the dollar. He looks like he his doodling with the letter "O" as in zero. Is that the real value of a dollar?
Liars and Crooks: the new movie, Zero Dark Thirty. It fails to acknowledge the sin of our present military leaders who used torture to seek info on Bin Laden and terrorist in general. The real truth is when the water board and other tortures started, a brave FBI agent walked out on the act. He stated, "that this is not the way America operates. This is how the bottom feeders act." The so-called true story does not reveal this or any conflicts pertaining to the military actions.
Monday, January 7, 2013
Hitting the WALL of Demographics...L&C
A few people have asked me why in my previous article, Forecast 2013, why I only had one recommendation and that being for gold in 2013? The main reason was space pertaining to the length of the article. In that light I have decided to add this, to follow up for 2013.
Keep in mind my basic premise that these pieces constitute a concept that is explored fully in my unpublished book, The Evolution of Democracy: the Book of Multiple Ideas and Predictions. I say this to add a cheap plug and remind you dear readers, that previous pieces combine to form a complete opinion as with another recent, previous article on the stock market called, Divergence Ahead...
Insiders Selling
can be added to the previous point about new highs and new lows for the market. Executives of listed corporations are selling their shares of their companies at an alarming rate of 6.67 to 1 ration - meaning that, for every one share bought, insiders sold almost seven. In addition, manufacturing which has been a big plus for the US economy is now in a declining trend which is bordering a return to the overall big picture decline since the 1970s. A closer look at the factory gauge tells all. In 2010, the level of activity was 57.3 of capacity. This number declined to 55.2 in 2011 and fell again in 2012 to 51.7.
Gasoline Usage
has declined every year since 2008, and the only reason why prices have not followed suite is market speculation. This downward force is gaining momentum. This action can bust more than hedge funds, especially with all those derivatives out there. There are other real market forces that are affecting supply and demand like unemployment and one that is not fully understood by the status quo appointed economists, and that is demographics. The baby boomers are 73 million strong with 10,000 retiring every day for the next 18 years. These people are downsizing, drive less, don't eat potato chips or drink soda and in general, conserve their money=less spending. This is a double whammy for the government. It means less revenues and more expenses through social security and other entitlement programs. It also means that the budget deficit and yearly revenues are ALL WRONG! They are all short of reality.
PCs
sales have dropped to extreme levels causing big declines to Dell, Hewlett-Packard and Intel which make the chips to power them. If you look at the Dogs of the Dow for 2012, you will find all of the above plus AT&T, Verizon, GE, J&J, Merck, Pfizer and DuPont.
Looking ahead, I like two bio/health stocks: Arena Pharmaceuticals and Celsion Corp. These are both speculative, so ask your broker or other professional if a position is right for you. I also feel that the baby boomers have all the smart phones and tablets that they need and market saturation will slow the companies that make these devices. Sadly, the sales of precious metal coins declined for 2012, but no trend is in place. Copper will probably hold at present levels since the SEC has allowed a fund to sell this under an index for this commodity. The pundits will claim it is the housing recovery that has stabilize the price of copper.
Finally, now that the fiscal cliff deal is done, the market will eventually realize that this deal for tax increases and spending cuts amounts to only 10% of the original Simpson-Bowles, which was a compromise to the original tax increase/spending cuts plan to the tune of 25%. Bottom line:a half-percent increase in our interest rates will negate the $60 billion in new revenues and when the rates begin to rise, it will be more than a half percent. Look at it this way, the government will get $60 billion in new revenues and when they finish the Hurricane Sandy Relief, it will cost the government $60 billion. This is why I say gold in 2013.
Liars and Crooks: President Obama and Congress with their fiscal cliff deal. This piece of legislation will continue 52 tax loopholes, credits, whatever you want to call this PORK! End the Fed!
Keep in mind my basic premise that these pieces constitute a concept that is explored fully in my unpublished book, The Evolution of Democracy: the Book of Multiple Ideas and Predictions. I say this to add a cheap plug and remind you dear readers, that previous pieces combine to form a complete opinion as with another recent, previous article on the stock market called, Divergence Ahead...
Insiders Selling
can be added to the previous point about new highs and new lows for the market. Executives of listed corporations are selling their shares of their companies at an alarming rate of 6.67 to 1 ration - meaning that, for every one share bought, insiders sold almost seven. In addition, manufacturing which has been a big plus for the US economy is now in a declining trend which is bordering a return to the overall big picture decline since the 1970s. A closer look at the factory gauge tells all. In 2010, the level of activity was 57.3 of capacity. This number declined to 55.2 in 2011 and fell again in 2012 to 51.7.
Gasoline Usage
has declined every year since 2008, and the only reason why prices have not followed suite is market speculation. This downward force is gaining momentum. This action can bust more than hedge funds, especially with all those derivatives out there. There are other real market forces that are affecting supply and demand like unemployment and one that is not fully understood by the status quo appointed economists, and that is demographics. The baby boomers are 73 million strong with 10,000 retiring every day for the next 18 years. These people are downsizing, drive less, don't eat potato chips or drink soda and in general, conserve their money=less spending. This is a double whammy for the government. It means less revenues and more expenses through social security and other entitlement programs. It also means that the budget deficit and yearly revenues are ALL WRONG! They are all short of reality.
PCs
sales have dropped to extreme levels causing big declines to Dell, Hewlett-Packard and Intel which make the chips to power them. If you look at the Dogs of the Dow for 2012, you will find all of the above plus AT&T, Verizon, GE, J&J, Merck, Pfizer and DuPont.
Looking ahead, I like two bio/health stocks: Arena Pharmaceuticals and Celsion Corp. These are both speculative, so ask your broker or other professional if a position is right for you. I also feel that the baby boomers have all the smart phones and tablets that they need and market saturation will slow the companies that make these devices. Sadly, the sales of precious metal coins declined for 2012, but no trend is in place. Copper will probably hold at present levels since the SEC has allowed a fund to sell this under an index for this commodity. The pundits will claim it is the housing recovery that has stabilize the price of copper.
Finally, now that the fiscal cliff deal is done, the market will eventually realize that this deal for tax increases and spending cuts amounts to only 10% of the original Simpson-Bowles, which was a compromise to the original tax increase/spending cuts plan to the tune of 25%. Bottom line:a half-percent increase in our interest rates will negate the $60 billion in new revenues and when the rates begin to rise, it will be more than a half percent. Look at it this way, the government will get $60 billion in new revenues and when they finish the Hurricane Sandy Relief, it will cost the government $60 billion. This is why I say gold in 2013.
Liars and Crooks: President Obama and Congress with their fiscal cliff deal. This piece of legislation will continue 52 tax loopholes, credits, whatever you want to call this PORK! End the Fed!
Tuesday, January 1, 2013
Forecast 2013
Before I rub the crystal ball and reveal my 2013 calls, let me reflect, as this is a mediation period and recall my 2012 predictions.
I was spot on in my weather call as Hurricane Sandy after-effects still cause serious damage to many households. I also sadly called the drought problem. I do not see a bad hurricane season, but I see the drought continuing in 2013.
I called every election except the one in France and although presently, the Euro is in an uptrend, my call that it would hit a new low was correct. I see another new low in 2013.
My black swan call on derivatives is still a danger in progress, however my investment advice on coal was off the mark. My other investment calls on the media and trains returned profits as well as my long-term bullish stance on gold which has made money twelve years in a row.
2013
the pundits will push the banking industry and with the Fed manipulating investment choices, who can blame them. Nevertheless, I would not follow the herd on this call because in the second set of books, the banking industry hides their toxic securities and another three million homes that need to be foreclosed upon. The banks along with the Fed policy is using the drip I-V recovery method for the housing industry. The media plays along and together they are turning the public perspective about the housing market. Bottom line: a repeat of 2012 but a possible big downside.
Of course, the most important news and the reason why I delayed this piece one day, is the fiscal cliff call on the budget. As I stated many times, President Obama is an appeaser. He has already doubled the "middle class" threshold in negotiating with Congress. He says, he won't budge on spending cuts unless equal taxation is applied, however the pending battle on the debt ceiling will show that he is indeed an appeaser with no plan or convictions. Can you believe anyone who says $450,000 is middle class? The best thing is for our nation to go over the cliff and maybe, some reality about our economy will reset the national thinking. That is the hope, but the reality is some cheaper version will be reached. The real story will be money for the states with budget shortfalls. This will determine the national economy for 2013.
Character
or lack of it would describe our present day government. Not only is the fiscal cliff a problem, but we learn that there needs to be a diary fix or a gallon of milk will cost over $7 dollars. We find that there needs to be a doctor fix, so payments under Medicare and Medicaid will be carried over into 2013. There are other fixes too like the extension of unemployment benefits, spending cuts for the military and other government contract deals. I see them all getting extended by these weak leaders. All these lies hide the fact that our government is corrupt.and deceiving its citizens. Our economy is losing its capitalism to socialism with the government causing what little GDP that we attain. The Simpson-Bowles agreement was a glance at reality and this government cannot allow the truth to be known. Bottom line: Free trade is a lie that is destroying America and until this is addressed, nothing will change for our benefit. Gold will hit over $2,000 in 2013.
Other Elections
will see the same leaders in Germany and Italy and a continuation of the same policies unless some black swan event causes a turn to the truth.
Other Dangers
This could be an attack by Israel with Iran. A hacking event that causes a world interruption. This will result when this happens, with new laws that will force Internet security expenses by companies which will result in higher inflation to the global community. There is a slight possibility that Japan will have a financial problem with its new policy of debasing the Yen. All these scenarios will only help gold, but I see the dollar climbing higher at first which will lower the price of gold and oil until the realization that the world central banks are printing worthless paper with no backing. This awareness will cause our Fed to lose control of interest rates that will rise, eventually causing world havoc in the financial markets. This may cause the One World people to suggest a new world reserve currency. This will hurt America as inflation will show its ugly head. Our role will end up being a less powerful economic force with China rising in influence, after all, it is the year of the snake.
I was spot on in my weather call as Hurricane Sandy after-effects still cause serious damage to many households. I also sadly called the drought problem. I do not see a bad hurricane season, but I see the drought continuing in 2013.
I called every election except the one in France and although presently, the Euro is in an uptrend, my call that it would hit a new low was correct. I see another new low in 2013.
My black swan call on derivatives is still a danger in progress, however my investment advice on coal was off the mark. My other investment calls on the media and trains returned profits as well as my long-term bullish stance on gold which has made money twelve years in a row.
2013
the pundits will push the banking industry and with the Fed manipulating investment choices, who can blame them. Nevertheless, I would not follow the herd on this call because in the second set of books, the banking industry hides their toxic securities and another three million homes that need to be foreclosed upon. The banks along with the Fed policy is using the drip I-V recovery method for the housing industry. The media plays along and together they are turning the public perspective about the housing market. Bottom line: a repeat of 2012 but a possible big downside.
Of course, the most important news and the reason why I delayed this piece one day, is the fiscal cliff call on the budget. As I stated many times, President Obama is an appeaser. He has already doubled the "middle class" threshold in negotiating with Congress. He says, he won't budge on spending cuts unless equal taxation is applied, however the pending battle on the debt ceiling will show that he is indeed an appeaser with no plan or convictions. Can you believe anyone who says $450,000 is middle class? The best thing is for our nation to go over the cliff and maybe, some reality about our economy will reset the national thinking. That is the hope, but the reality is some cheaper version will be reached. The real story will be money for the states with budget shortfalls. This will determine the national economy for 2013.
Character
or lack of it would describe our present day government. Not only is the fiscal cliff a problem, but we learn that there needs to be a diary fix or a gallon of milk will cost over $7 dollars. We find that there needs to be a doctor fix, so payments under Medicare and Medicaid will be carried over into 2013. There are other fixes too like the extension of unemployment benefits, spending cuts for the military and other government contract deals. I see them all getting extended by these weak leaders. All these lies hide the fact that our government is corrupt.and deceiving its citizens. Our economy is losing its capitalism to socialism with the government causing what little GDP that we attain. The Simpson-Bowles agreement was a glance at reality and this government cannot allow the truth to be known. Bottom line: Free trade is a lie that is destroying America and until this is addressed, nothing will change for our benefit. Gold will hit over $2,000 in 2013.
Other Elections
will see the same leaders in Germany and Italy and a continuation of the same policies unless some black swan event causes a turn to the truth.
Other Dangers
This could be an attack by Israel with Iran. A hacking event that causes a world interruption. This will result when this happens, with new laws that will force Internet security expenses by companies which will result in higher inflation to the global community. There is a slight possibility that Japan will have a financial problem with its new policy of debasing the Yen. All these scenarios will only help gold, but I see the dollar climbing higher at first which will lower the price of gold and oil until the realization that the world central banks are printing worthless paper with no backing. This awareness will cause our Fed to lose control of interest rates that will rise, eventually causing world havoc in the financial markets. This may cause the One World people to suggest a new world reserve currency. This will hurt America as inflation will show its ugly head. Our role will end up being a less powerful economic force with China rising in influence, after all, it is the year of the snake.
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