My first reaction to the bombings in Boston was what is wrong with these people? Killing innocent people? What is wrong with the people in the Muslim religion that preach jihad, killing to make in their view, the world a better place? The only seed of change that you are breeding is hate, distrust and the powers-to-be in the US to increase budgets to fight any views which they feel threaten America.
I kept singing in my head the old 45 "...Boston, your my home." I love the guy in the Yankee organization who placed a Boston logo next to the Yankee logo on top of the stadium with the words: united we stand. That was then, this is now.
F.B.I. knew suspect
That's right! All the B.S. about social media and asking for the public help to capture the two suspects was a smoke screen. Why you ask? Because the Russian government tried to help ours by informing our nation two years ago that the older brother, Tamerlan, could have terrorist leanings. The FBI checked him out. They said he was good to go. He would not be a problem. Ha! Because the first statement from law officials, including the FBI was that they did not know the suspects. Only now, when the truth surfaces, do they change their story to say, it was a forgotten report. No harm no foul. Are you kidding me! These people bring to mind three words: incompetent, incongruous and incredulous. In addition, a relative of the two says the FBI kept checking and watching the family ever since the first interview.
Two Stories
from the past to show that all these government agencies need to fire all the top people and replace them with the type of citizens who use common sense. People who do the right thing like first responders. They may not have the right kind of degree from the Ivy League, but their actions speak louder than words.
This first story takes place during the Cold War. The situation is this: the president is coming to town in his open convertible. He will parade through the streets heading to a meeting. Everyone is invited to see him. Now, your job is to protect the president from ding-dong's that are in our society. So, you check out the danger signals that could appear in this town: anyone with radical views, violent record and of course, all travel into and out of this area. There is one fellow. He renounced his citizenship to become a Russian Communist. He was in the military. He had been seen handing out aggressive propaganda, ordered a rifle through the mail and he works in a large building along the parade route. Did the FBI look into the danger of Lee Harvey Oswald? Did anyone from law enforcement in the city? Anyone from the federal government? NO!!!!! They should have fired all the bastards then and there!
The next story is recent. Our spy agency, NSA overheard some terrorist in Yemen on a cell phone saying that the day is close to make the US suffer. Not only did this call get heard, but others too. The culprits plan to go to America. They are followed by NSA all the way to San Diego where their jurisdiction ends on our soil. So, if you are the NSA worker who knows this, what do you do? Apparently, NOTHING!!!! They don't tell the FBI about these terrorist who eventually travel across the country and crash two planes into the World Trade Center. Fire the stupid bastards! We would not have had the two senseless wars not to mention the loss of life and national treasure.
Police State
Now, back to last week. Did you notice on the endless news reporting of the bombing how many police officers there were? Thousands. Not only that, they had assault weapons drawn, armored personnel carriers, helicopters(drones in future)even tanks to catch two men. On every street they instituted Marshall law without the authority to invoke such action. No one was allowed out of their homes for work, food, medicine, whatever. If you ventured out, you ended up in jail. This is the very definition of police state. And did the police find the two? No! The two felt the pressure. They were spotted by the MIT police officer. They panicked. They feared capture. Shot the poor man in a shoot-out. They hijacked a car in Watertown,Ma. However, the owner of the car left his cell phone in it and the police could trace the car to the exact spot. Probably where there was another shoot-out. The older brother dead and the younger on the run. Later, a home owner saw blood on his boat in the back yard. Called the police. It was over. Two squad cars could have solved this case, but in the crisis the government used the situation to see if they could effectively enact a police state. Now, they know they can. Be prepared for that and this.
Prediction: GRA
Obama just signs laws that people in his group says we need. They are not passed by Congress, but are executive acts like 13603 which says the government can enact regulations to prioritize and allocate resources. This means they can take all commodities and products being digested=your food.
GRA means Guaranteed Retirement Act. When we have the next financial crisis, the government has a plan to get out of it. They will go after private pensions. They already back pensions of companies that went out of business like Eastern Airlines. Now, they will set this program for all pensions just like social security. They will steal the estimated $19.5trillion to cover our national debt when this crisis arises. They will print new money to cover the money that they took to keep the status quo in order. However, this money will be less than was owed and it will be worth less in value.
Liars and Crooks:Goes to the federal government agency that inspects safety regulations in industry. This infamous award is shared by the state of Texas for the explosion in the fertilizer plant in West, Tx. This plant was last inspected in 1985. Can you believe how incompetent, incongruous, and incredulous this is? Off the chart. No excuse. Fire all the bastards!!!...oh, yeah, and End the Fed!
Sunday, April 21, 2013
Sunday, April 14, 2013
Future Shock: We're In Budget Do-Do...L&C
This past week President Obama introduced his budget plan for 2014. The response was good and bad. The good news was he united both political parties. The bad was both parties are against it. I'd like to remind you, dear readers that the president has not gotten one budget passed into law for four years in a row which violates the constitution. He has no vision or plan and he has no idea what he is doing other than smile on TV. PS, in his budget he looks to repeal the sequester. He hopes this will garner support, however in another 60 days, the Republicans will realize that the economy is tanking and it will fall on the president and Democrats which will make the GOP happy even though we all will suffer economically, to which, I have a dream for a new third party of, from and for the people.
By the way I predicted last week that the president would render a plan to tap into Republican support for his budget by cutting payments in social security using the index idea for COLAs and he did. This is the same man who campaigned against Bush's Tax Plan and then, signed an extension of it into law. I say no more.
Future Shock
I spent the week looking over past federal budgets and one of the interesting things about the site is they give you both the estimates and actual results so you can compare results. Folks, it ain't pretty.
For example, President Obama estimated that revenues for 2010 would be $1469.8billion(that is one trillion four hundred sixty-nine billion dollars). The government actually took in $1374.5billion or roughly, they missed by $95billion. That is a BIG MISS! It gets worse.
Another line under the various debits was the debt on the national deficit. Again in 2010(I will use this year because the government site is two years behind). It was $348.8billion, however three years later, the first actual posted expense under this category is $224.8billion. There are first posts for later budgets, but these figures get changed due to errors and 2010 is set in stone.
Now, how can the budget of 2010 be $124billion less than 2013 when our nation added over $3trillion in new debts to the deficit? The Federal Reserve. They lowered interest rates which is the real reason why rates are so low. It is to help the federal government keep the losses to a minimum.
Howdy Do-Do Time
Dear reader, this is where the do-do begins its odor. Federal costs for government pensions is estimated to be $819.9billion for 2013. This is an expense that can only grow with time. If you consider the other new danger to the budget which rarely gets press, but even when it does, is not fully understood. It is disability payments which come from social security. Did you know that this cost is $135billion a year? Did you further know that the average age of the ex-worker receiving this income is only 53? When you hear the thought about raising the age of social security because people are living longer, well, we just added twelve more years to the new extended life cycle. Did you further realize that food stamps add another $74.6billion to the budget? Finally, the military gets 20% of the budget. If, by some miracle we were to return to a peaceful nation and say cut this in half, it would still be over $300billion. Then, of course, interest rates could rise and at some point, they will. This will cause the debt to rise due to the higher cost, however in this exercise, I won't. Also, I will use Obama's direct revenue estimate which is $2.100b for 2014. Folks, our nation never collected that much, but he has the something to say, this is how I see it. To make things straight forward, I only use the payment of 2010 so you can easily see that I am being too conservative in what I'm going to show you.
Add It Up
Keep in mind that I cut the military budget in half. I am not including social security, medicare or anything else that is included into the federal budget. This is it line-by-line.
348.8b for deficit.
819.9b for pensions
135b for disability
300b for military
74.6b for food stamps.
Total=$1678.5b in this example. If, our government only receives what it thinks it will under direct taxes the figure is $2100b. This gives our government roughly $421b to play around with. Like I said we are in serious do-do.
Liars and Crooks:This week goes to Jerome Cahuzar, the ex-budget minister of France. It seems that Jerome's job was to check into tax evasion in France after they raised their taxes. In one sense he was the right man for the job. He was found to have stashed thousands of euros in Switzerland to avoid paying taxes.
By the way I predicted last week that the president would render a plan to tap into Republican support for his budget by cutting payments in social security using the index idea for COLAs and he did. This is the same man who campaigned against Bush's Tax Plan and then, signed an extension of it into law. I say no more.
Future Shock
I spent the week looking over past federal budgets and one of the interesting things about the site is they give you both the estimates and actual results so you can compare results. Folks, it ain't pretty.
For example, President Obama estimated that revenues for 2010 would be $1469.8billion(that is one trillion four hundred sixty-nine billion dollars). The government actually took in $1374.5billion or roughly, they missed by $95billion. That is a BIG MISS! It gets worse.
Another line under the various debits was the debt on the national deficit. Again in 2010(I will use this year because the government site is two years behind). It was $348.8billion, however three years later, the first actual posted expense under this category is $224.8billion. There are first posts for later budgets, but these figures get changed due to errors and 2010 is set in stone.
Now, how can the budget of 2010 be $124billion less than 2013 when our nation added over $3trillion in new debts to the deficit? The Federal Reserve. They lowered interest rates which is the real reason why rates are so low. It is to help the federal government keep the losses to a minimum.
Howdy Do-Do Time
Dear reader, this is where the do-do begins its odor. Federal costs for government pensions is estimated to be $819.9billion for 2013. This is an expense that can only grow with time. If you consider the other new danger to the budget which rarely gets press, but even when it does, is not fully understood. It is disability payments which come from social security. Did you know that this cost is $135billion a year? Did you further know that the average age of the ex-worker receiving this income is only 53? When you hear the thought about raising the age of social security because people are living longer, well, we just added twelve more years to the new extended life cycle. Did you further realize that food stamps add another $74.6billion to the budget? Finally, the military gets 20% of the budget. If, by some miracle we were to return to a peaceful nation and say cut this in half, it would still be over $300billion. Then, of course, interest rates could rise and at some point, they will. This will cause the debt to rise due to the higher cost, however in this exercise, I won't. Also, I will use Obama's direct revenue estimate which is $2.100b for 2014. Folks, our nation never collected that much, but he has the something to say, this is how I see it. To make things straight forward, I only use the payment of 2010 so you can easily see that I am being too conservative in what I'm going to show you.
Add It Up
Keep in mind that I cut the military budget in half. I am not including social security, medicare or anything else that is included into the federal budget. This is it line-by-line.
348.8b for deficit.
819.9b for pensions
135b for disability
300b for military
74.6b for food stamps.
Total=$1678.5b in this example. If, our government only receives what it thinks it will under direct taxes the figure is $2100b. This gives our government roughly $421b to play around with. Like I said we are in serious do-do.
Liars and Crooks:This week goes to Jerome Cahuzar, the ex-budget minister of France. It seems that Jerome's job was to check into tax evasion in France after they raised their taxes. In one sense he was the right man for the job. He was found to have stashed thousands of euros in Switzerland to avoid paying taxes.
Sunday, April 7, 2013
The Ripoff of T-Bills to Junk Bonds...L&C
There are many things that are baked into the price of bonds, far too many for a blog, however the underlining principle is a range of safety for your cash investment, depending on the type of bond that you purchase to which will determine the interest that you will receive during the term of the debt issue. The two key words in this is interest and debt.
Today, the fourth branch of government, irregardless of the country, sets the interest rate of payment in bonds, the largest investment vehicle. Of course, the present lie of all democratic governments is that these agencies are above party politics, looking out for the best interest of the nation and separate from all interference. Do you know what that is, a fairy tale. They are appointed by people in power that choose people for positions because they have the same attitudes about government and the economy. If they don't perform as to expectations, they are replaced by someone who will. Does B. Born ring a bell? A republican, she was dismissed because she spoke out about the dangers of derivatives. This is reality. Now, how does this affect the current bond picture which is in a dangerous bubble engineered by the Fed?
Ten Year T-Bills
set the standard rate for all bonds and presently they pay only 1.69%. Are you kidding me! There has never been a ten year period in modern history where the price of a product went up only 1.69% in ten years. The lie screams like a lighting bolt in a dark sky. Just since January of this year, gas is up 12%, eggs up 60% and the list is as long as yours going grocery shopping. This is the root of the problem and the effects will be another financial bubble, generated by central banks throughout the world with the US Fed being the chief instigator. Another sad casualty in all this will be the end of the US as the reserve currency of the world. If, or when this happens, the One World people which are the same bankers, will seek more power through a new reserve currency. Of course, other players like the BRICS and emerging markets will all want their two cents, but everyone will suffer because one aspect in all this is the spirit founded in the birth of America which is truly positive will be replaced, buried by the elites. Sorry about that rant dear reader.
Inflation is one of the main aspects for bond pricing. We know the government massages the CPI numbers and for many reasons like Social Security payments(see L&C), however the biggest danger in interest payments is with the national debt. The government and the Fed say inflation is in their 2% range. Oh, really? According to John Williams of ShadowStats.com(I recommend)the real CPI, calculated the way the government did during the Carter Administration is 9.6%. That sounds more accurate to me. This is the real reason for the low rates and everything else that is said about the Fed and central bankers is a lie or spin to make them appear legitimate. The real reason for the Fed is a security blanket for the banking industry and every time these thieves screw up, the Fed comes to their rescue just like in 2008.
When I was a kid, 5% was the standard interest rate for savers everywhere. This was before money market funds, CDs and all the various investment vehicles. Now, if rates were to return to 5%, the interest on our national debt would equal the amount of revenues the government presently collects. In addition, the transition of higher rates will cause the lower paying bonds to decline which will affect other investment vehicles like derivatives and this chain reaction along with the next tidbit will cause a financial implosion.
Junk Bonds
average just 5.7% for a dangerous risk that at one time caused these type of rated bonds to pay 15% to over 20% interest and now, they too like the Fed, are stealing from people. One quarter of these issues will go south and the numbers are crazy. In 2008 junk bonds totalled $43billion and now, $329billion or up 665% and that will add over $82billion in defaults. Can you now see the chain reaction danger? It gets worse.
Municipals
understand the picture and 37% are getting ready to issue according to National League of Cities. They are getting while the getting is good. The only fear that they have is the federal government taking away their tax exempt status.
Insiders
of companies understand the big picture and that is why they are dumping their stock even though analysts bullishness is at multi-year highs.
Bottom line: All of the above are reasons to End the Fed! They are guilty of manipulation and theft through inflation due to the devaluation in the dollar.
Why do I write this now? April is Financial Literacy Month. In my unpublished book I have an idea to save the system, but if I give away all my ideas, no one will buy the book. Here is a clue: it involves gold.
Liars and Crooks: President Obama will offer cuts in Social Security this week even though he pledged in his campaign to protect the elderly. He will seek to reach a big deal with the Republicans. These cuts will center around a new way to calculate COLAs. It will go lower to lower the payments people receive. They are stealing. It is like I've stated many times, he is all talk, no action, no conviction, an appeaser.
Today, the fourth branch of government, irregardless of the country, sets the interest rate of payment in bonds, the largest investment vehicle. Of course, the present lie of all democratic governments is that these agencies are above party politics, looking out for the best interest of the nation and separate from all interference. Do you know what that is, a fairy tale. They are appointed by people in power that choose people for positions because they have the same attitudes about government and the economy. If they don't perform as to expectations, they are replaced by someone who will. Does B. Born ring a bell? A republican, she was dismissed because she spoke out about the dangers of derivatives. This is reality. Now, how does this affect the current bond picture which is in a dangerous bubble engineered by the Fed?
Ten Year T-Bills
set the standard rate for all bonds and presently they pay only 1.69%. Are you kidding me! There has never been a ten year period in modern history where the price of a product went up only 1.69% in ten years. The lie screams like a lighting bolt in a dark sky. Just since January of this year, gas is up 12%, eggs up 60% and the list is as long as yours going grocery shopping. This is the root of the problem and the effects will be another financial bubble, generated by central banks throughout the world with the US Fed being the chief instigator. Another sad casualty in all this will be the end of the US as the reserve currency of the world. If, or when this happens, the One World people which are the same bankers, will seek more power through a new reserve currency. Of course, other players like the BRICS and emerging markets will all want their two cents, but everyone will suffer because one aspect in all this is the spirit founded in the birth of America which is truly positive will be replaced, buried by the elites. Sorry about that rant dear reader.
Inflation is one of the main aspects for bond pricing. We know the government massages the CPI numbers and for many reasons like Social Security payments(see L&C), however the biggest danger in interest payments is with the national debt. The government and the Fed say inflation is in their 2% range. Oh, really? According to John Williams of ShadowStats.com(I recommend)the real CPI, calculated the way the government did during the Carter Administration is 9.6%. That sounds more accurate to me. This is the real reason for the low rates and everything else that is said about the Fed and central bankers is a lie or spin to make them appear legitimate. The real reason for the Fed is a security blanket for the banking industry and every time these thieves screw up, the Fed comes to their rescue just like in 2008.
When I was a kid, 5% was the standard interest rate for savers everywhere. This was before money market funds, CDs and all the various investment vehicles. Now, if rates were to return to 5%, the interest on our national debt would equal the amount of revenues the government presently collects. In addition, the transition of higher rates will cause the lower paying bonds to decline which will affect other investment vehicles like derivatives and this chain reaction along with the next tidbit will cause a financial implosion.
Junk Bonds
average just 5.7% for a dangerous risk that at one time caused these type of rated bonds to pay 15% to over 20% interest and now, they too like the Fed, are stealing from people. One quarter of these issues will go south and the numbers are crazy. In 2008 junk bonds totalled $43billion and now, $329billion or up 665% and that will add over $82billion in defaults. Can you now see the chain reaction danger? It gets worse.
Municipals
understand the picture and 37% are getting ready to issue according to National League of Cities. They are getting while the getting is good. The only fear that they have is the federal government taking away their tax exempt status.
Insiders
of companies understand the big picture and that is why they are dumping their stock even though analysts bullishness is at multi-year highs.
Bottom line: All of the above are reasons to End the Fed! They are guilty of manipulation and theft through inflation due to the devaluation in the dollar.
Why do I write this now? April is Financial Literacy Month. In my unpublished book I have an idea to save the system, but if I give away all my ideas, no one will buy the book. Here is a clue: it involves gold.
Liars and Crooks: President Obama will offer cuts in Social Security this week even though he pledged in his campaign to protect the elderly. He will seek to reach a big deal with the Republicans. These cuts will center around a new way to calculate COLAs. It will go lower to lower the payments people receive. They are stealing. It is like I've stated many times, he is all talk, no action, no conviction, an appeaser.
Sunday, March 31, 2013
What's Happening To Gold...L&C
Lately, the news on gold has not been good. Shares of gold mining companies, no matter how strong are all in decline. The media has declared that the twelve year rally is over and they offered "second" opinions to prove their point. Goldman Sachs sees a fall to $1200 and Citi says it is over! However, allow me to question the surveyed. Would you ask a blind man for directions? When Ron Paul asked Ben Bernanke, "...is gold money?" He said no! Do I have to remind you that these people are all anti-gold? They are all fiat. The media rarely interviews advocates of gold, but they do inform you when a gold bug throws in the towel like Soros and Paulsen. Now, I will give my two cents since the US still mints pennies.
Record
gold set a record high average for 2012 at $1669. True, this has been and continues to be, the longest stretch for gold without setting a new high. Nevertheless, this is how gold performs and although past records do not guarantee future levels, I would remind you of this: a rally in anything does not just end. It changes course due to an event or capitulation either up or down. We have had neither.
Pro
The irony of the rally has been the fact that anti-gold central bankers around the world have been buyers of gold. In fact, the largest purchases were achieved in 2012 going back as far as 1964 by these bankers especially in China, Russia, Turkey, Mongolia and India.
As noted above, gold in a rally can have large pullbacks. Historically, gold retraced from $200 per ounce in 1974 to $100 per ounce in August 1976, only to rise 721% after to $800 per ounce. That was the capitulation, bubble all in one.
Gold did a similar movement when it retraced from $729 in May 2006 to $560 in June 2006 before doubling to over $1200. However, this was not a capitulation as the long term contracts were roughly the same except more buyers than sellers.
Con
The worst feature of gold at present is it broke its long term rising channel at $1663. If gold cannot get back into the channel, it could continue to drop with support at $1525. At the same time the US dollar is rising against all currencies because of the safe haven aspect even though Bernanke has debased the dollar. The global market senses some fear, notably coming from the euro zone and out of Cyprus. This economic difficulty had no effect on gold which is very bearish. Gold could fall further than the support level.
Personally, I have a inner fear about all the gold that central bankers have been buying. It could be to cover hidden leases of gold that these same bankers claim to own, but they don't actually possess or will ever be able to reclaim. It could also be used at a critical point in price to destroy the price of gold since at heart they are still fiat and anti-gold. The worse case scenario is that a secret deal is in the works to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency. The IMF already uses SDRs concept for money even though it is not an official currency.
The BRICS also announced that they are forming a exchange value between the group to circumvent the dollar. Still other emerging market nations are looking for ways to not utilize the dollar in market exchanges, however almost all commodities are valued in dollars.
Bottom Line
nothing goes straight up or down. We are at a pause while at the same time all central bankers are printing money in excess to which gold only rises in value. Keep the faith, our Founding Fathers had it and put it in the constitution to which the Fed violates along with our represented government.
Liars and Crooks:this week and next goes to the troika because the bond-holders of the defunct Cyprus banks will cause a financial crisis or at least a repercussion.
Record
gold set a record high average for 2012 at $1669. True, this has been and continues to be, the longest stretch for gold without setting a new high. Nevertheless, this is how gold performs and although past records do not guarantee future levels, I would remind you of this: a rally in anything does not just end. It changes course due to an event or capitulation either up or down. We have had neither.
Pro
The irony of the rally has been the fact that anti-gold central bankers around the world have been buyers of gold. In fact, the largest purchases were achieved in 2012 going back as far as 1964 by these bankers especially in China, Russia, Turkey, Mongolia and India.
As noted above, gold in a rally can have large pullbacks. Historically, gold retraced from $200 per ounce in 1974 to $100 per ounce in August 1976, only to rise 721% after to $800 per ounce. That was the capitulation, bubble all in one.
Gold did a similar movement when it retraced from $729 in May 2006 to $560 in June 2006 before doubling to over $1200. However, this was not a capitulation as the long term contracts were roughly the same except more buyers than sellers.
Con
The worst feature of gold at present is it broke its long term rising channel at $1663. If gold cannot get back into the channel, it could continue to drop with support at $1525. At the same time the US dollar is rising against all currencies because of the safe haven aspect even though Bernanke has debased the dollar. The global market senses some fear, notably coming from the euro zone and out of Cyprus. This economic difficulty had no effect on gold which is very bearish. Gold could fall further than the support level.
Personally, I have a inner fear about all the gold that central bankers have been buying. It could be to cover hidden leases of gold that these same bankers claim to own, but they don't actually possess or will ever be able to reclaim. It could also be used at a critical point in price to destroy the price of gold since at heart they are still fiat and anti-gold. The worse case scenario is that a secret deal is in the works to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency. The IMF already uses SDRs concept for money even though it is not an official currency.
The BRICS also announced that they are forming a exchange value between the group to circumvent the dollar. Still other emerging market nations are looking for ways to not utilize the dollar in market exchanges, however almost all commodities are valued in dollars.
Bottom Line
nothing goes straight up or down. We are at a pause while at the same time all central bankers are printing money in excess to which gold only rises in value. Keep the faith, our Founding Fathers had it and put it in the constitution to which the Fed violates along with our represented government.
Liars and Crooks:this week and next goes to the troika because the bond-holders of the defunct Cyprus banks will cause a financial crisis or at least a repercussion.
Monday, March 25, 2013
Cyprus:Shows A More Dangerous View...L&C
The troika and Cyprus came to terms over the weekend and the biggest loser is you, dear reader. I'll explain, however there are two unknown knowns that signify my conclusion. First, we can no longer trust the news media to accurately report stories. There are many examples and the Cyprus bailout is the latest. Initially, the media reported that the island nation faced bankruptcy because reserves in the banking system suffered losses from withdrawals due to lack of trust by depositors. Later, it was revealed that the government had placed derivative bets on Greek bonds that went sour causing the losses. Finally, the first bailout plan which revolved around taxing the banking system depositors to cover the losses. This initial plan reveals one of the unknown knowns and that is this: the elite will stick it to us every time if a crisis surfaces that could damage the banking system with the only other option is for the taxpayer or citizen.
We have been down this road quite a few times in recent history and the thinking always comes to the same conclusion, screw the public in favor of the banks and government status quo.
Remember the Jon Corzine episode with MFGlobal? He took customers deposits and he used their money to cover his losses to keep his company alive. He did not go to jail and customers lost their money which is totally bogus. Cyprus is the second example where we find our money is no longer safe due to lack of honesty and trust in the system.
How about the Fed and the Wall St. bailout in the financial crisis of 2008 or the lack of a fair interest rate for savers?
How about FDR stealing citizens gold in 1933?
How about the next financial crisis in the future?
In the Cyprus case there was an unusual twist in that the economy of the country attracted many wealthy Russians and Britons who vacation there. This tidbit covered the troika solution because not only were the citizens being taxed, but the levy would hit the rich too. The troika overlooked the fact that the wealthy have friends who have friends who write the laws and lo and behold, this plan was scrapped.
Bottom line: the citizens still got screwed along with some wealthy visitors. The banking system basically stays intact along with the government leaders...until Tuesday when the banks reopen and the run begins. Of course, the wealthy will move their money electronically in case someone had a bad idea of robbing someone when they left one of the remaining banks.
Liars and Crooks: this week goes to the often used excuse for the weakness in our economy due to excessive regulations. Folks, we need regulations or the forest would be gone, fish extinct, water polluted and the air poisoned. With that said there are dumb laws on the books too due to corruption within the system and bad ideas that seemed good at one time. This is one of those:ethanol gas mix act. Even though gasoline demand is down, prices are up which makes no sense until you realize that the cause is ethanol regulation. We have too much ethanol because planners thought that demand would be higher not expecting the economic downturn, price evasion and alternative transportation. Refiners only need 10% in mix, however they are forced to buy than they need due to supply excesses. This is a bad regulation. This is what effects the price more than anything else. In addition, the act causes farmers to plant more corn due to price. We need to repeal this act in order to save the land because corn is too intensive, water using food source that is better on the table than driving to the store to put food on the table.
We have been down this road quite a few times in recent history and the thinking always comes to the same conclusion, screw the public in favor of the banks and government status quo.
Remember the Jon Corzine episode with MFGlobal? He took customers deposits and he used their money to cover his losses to keep his company alive. He did not go to jail and customers lost their money which is totally bogus. Cyprus is the second example where we find our money is no longer safe due to lack of honesty and trust in the system.
How about the Fed and the Wall St. bailout in the financial crisis of 2008 or the lack of a fair interest rate for savers?
How about FDR stealing citizens gold in 1933?
How about the next financial crisis in the future?
In the Cyprus case there was an unusual twist in that the economy of the country attracted many wealthy Russians and Britons who vacation there. This tidbit covered the troika solution because not only were the citizens being taxed, but the levy would hit the rich too. The troika overlooked the fact that the wealthy have friends who have friends who write the laws and lo and behold, this plan was scrapped.
Bottom line: the citizens still got screwed along with some wealthy visitors. The banking system basically stays intact along with the government leaders...until Tuesday when the banks reopen and the run begins. Of course, the wealthy will move their money electronically in case someone had a bad idea of robbing someone when they left one of the remaining banks.
Liars and Crooks: this week goes to the often used excuse for the weakness in our economy due to excessive regulations. Folks, we need regulations or the forest would be gone, fish extinct, water polluted and the air poisoned. With that said there are dumb laws on the books too due to corruption within the system and bad ideas that seemed good at one time. This is one of those:ethanol gas mix act. Even though gasoline demand is down, prices are up which makes no sense until you realize that the cause is ethanol regulation. We have too much ethanol because planners thought that demand would be higher not expecting the economic downturn, price evasion and alternative transportation. Refiners only need 10% in mix, however they are forced to buy than they need due to supply excesses. This is a bad regulation. This is what effects the price more than anything else. In addition, the act causes farmers to plant more corn due to price. We need to repeal this act in order to save the land because corn is too intensive, water using food source that is better on the table than driving to the store to put food on the table.
Sunday, March 17, 2013
Three to Pay the Rent...L&C
You know, dear reader, that I don't usually give stock picks and my number one choice is the yellow metal, however life being what it is, we all need to eat and use energy(which is contrary to the gov't's CPI). As stated in earlier pieces, if the choices go south, I not only suffer, but I have caused you too. This is the reason that you should always seek a professional to give you a better judgement to their value or lack of. My three picks are: CVR Refining LP(CVRR), Enbridge Energy Partners LP(EEP), and Statoil(STO).
Pro Reasons
are many and interrelated in scope. Although alternative energy choices are better than my fossil choices, the demand side continues to rise with the world population and the higher standard of living in many countries like Brazil, China, India and the commodity oil rich nations. When I say better, I only mean that in the context to the cleaner energy forms like solar or wind. My choices do contain natural gas which is cleaner for the environment than oil, but still is in the fossil fuel category. As a Sierra Club member, I push LNG and CNG to them because it is a compromise step in the right direction, however that is another story.
Looking at the production side, rig count onshore in the US has been on a downtrend since 2008. Presently, it looks like it is bottoming at 423. The producers of natural gas are cutting back to support prices, however the media doesn't pick on them like when OPEC use to do the same strategy. If you haven't notice the price for MMbtu's has risen from $1.90 to the present $3.80. In addition, Schlumberger(SLB) has a study for rig usage in offshore drilling and projects a double from the 300 count in 2010 to over 600 in 2015. This is demand. This need for oil comes from the above named countries which offsets the decline in the US and Europe.
For those of you that think that hybrids will change the need for oil think again. The cost for hybrids compared to regular gasoline cars and trucks is cost prohibitive. Keep in mind that true change takes time. The use of horses started in BC and ended only around 1900. Wooden ships run the same range. The Model T is just 100 years in this revolution of change. We will have many more years before the steps are taken to LNG and CNG, which in itself will run for at least 50 years. There are many companies looking to develop fueling stations for this transition, but investors will see many years of losses before the time arrives.
Let's take a closer look.
CVRR is a new spin off IPO this year. It is from a respected US company with steady growth. This is a high yield variable partnership. They pay out most of their income on $8b in sales with 74% sales growth. The stock has climbed too high at over $35. per share. I would wait for a pullback entry point around $30. It paid 16% in its first distribution. This is a risk takers pick for growth and yield.
Next, is EEP. This is one of Canada's strongest oil & gas companies. Currently, at $28.69, it is at the low end of its 52 week range. It has suffered from the low price of natural gas, but still pays a safe 7.58% yield with a 2.90% dividend growth rate for the last five years. Get this! Its EPS is less than one. WOW! The best entry would be at $27. This is the best-in-show due to EEPs pipeline expansion into the Bakken oil region.
My last choice is from Norway. No, not a beautiful blond, but beautiful in the sense that STO is a very safe, proven company with a strong record of success, that revolves around their safety record of engineering in offshore drilling. This is important to follow because Brazil found the largest offshore field, but lacks the know-how to develop it. I feel that Brazil will call STO or Chevron to help them, but I pick STO because they also made a big move into Bakken oil. They pay a 4.36% yield with a good entry point of $23. If there is a severe correction, I would lower that to a great buy at $17.
Con Reasons
I feel that the stock market is over-bought and a correction is coming...soon. In addition, the US dollar is rising and when it rises, the market sinks. This is why gold has been falling lately. It is responding to the strength of the dollar. It is giving you a heads up. If the recent tax increases in the US cause consumers to slow even more, oil will fall. This will give you the opportunity to buy at the suggested prices, however please put in your stops because no one knows where the market will stop or what other event could trigger a further decline.
Liars and Crooks: Again, goes to the CPI index which gave its February reading of up 0.7%. Are you kidding me?! Gas up 16%. Corn has doubled! Eggs up 70%. Coffee up 160%!!!!! We demand a change to the CPI to only have food and energy and as always end the Fed!
Pro Reasons
are many and interrelated in scope. Although alternative energy choices are better than my fossil choices, the demand side continues to rise with the world population and the higher standard of living in many countries like Brazil, China, India and the commodity oil rich nations. When I say better, I only mean that in the context to the cleaner energy forms like solar or wind. My choices do contain natural gas which is cleaner for the environment than oil, but still is in the fossil fuel category. As a Sierra Club member, I push LNG and CNG to them because it is a compromise step in the right direction, however that is another story.
Looking at the production side, rig count onshore in the US has been on a downtrend since 2008. Presently, it looks like it is bottoming at 423. The producers of natural gas are cutting back to support prices, however the media doesn't pick on them like when OPEC use to do the same strategy. If you haven't notice the price for MMbtu's has risen from $1.90 to the present $3.80. In addition, Schlumberger(SLB) has a study for rig usage in offshore drilling and projects a double from the 300 count in 2010 to over 600 in 2015. This is demand. This need for oil comes from the above named countries which offsets the decline in the US and Europe.
For those of you that think that hybrids will change the need for oil think again. The cost for hybrids compared to regular gasoline cars and trucks is cost prohibitive. Keep in mind that true change takes time. The use of horses started in BC and ended only around 1900. Wooden ships run the same range. The Model T is just 100 years in this revolution of change. We will have many more years before the steps are taken to LNG and CNG, which in itself will run for at least 50 years. There are many companies looking to develop fueling stations for this transition, but investors will see many years of losses before the time arrives.
Let's take a closer look.
CVRR is a new spin off IPO this year. It is from a respected US company with steady growth. This is a high yield variable partnership. They pay out most of their income on $8b in sales with 74% sales growth. The stock has climbed too high at over $35. per share. I would wait for a pullback entry point around $30. It paid 16% in its first distribution. This is a risk takers pick for growth and yield.
Next, is EEP. This is one of Canada's strongest oil & gas companies. Currently, at $28.69, it is at the low end of its 52 week range. It has suffered from the low price of natural gas, but still pays a safe 7.58% yield with a 2.90% dividend growth rate for the last five years. Get this! Its EPS is less than one. WOW! The best entry would be at $27. This is the best-in-show due to EEPs pipeline expansion into the Bakken oil region.
My last choice is from Norway. No, not a beautiful blond, but beautiful in the sense that STO is a very safe, proven company with a strong record of success, that revolves around their safety record of engineering in offshore drilling. This is important to follow because Brazil found the largest offshore field, but lacks the know-how to develop it. I feel that Brazil will call STO or Chevron to help them, but I pick STO because they also made a big move into Bakken oil. They pay a 4.36% yield with a good entry point of $23. If there is a severe correction, I would lower that to a great buy at $17.
Con Reasons
I feel that the stock market is over-bought and a correction is coming...soon. In addition, the US dollar is rising and when it rises, the market sinks. This is why gold has been falling lately. It is responding to the strength of the dollar. It is giving you a heads up. If the recent tax increases in the US cause consumers to slow even more, oil will fall. This will give you the opportunity to buy at the suggested prices, however please put in your stops because no one knows where the market will stop or what other event could trigger a further decline.
Liars and Crooks: Again, goes to the CPI index which gave its February reading of up 0.7%. Are you kidding me?! Gas up 16%. Corn has doubled! Eggs up 70%. Coffee up 160%!!!!! We demand a change to the CPI to only have food and energy and as always end the Fed!
Sunday, March 10, 2013
A Dangerous"Cry Wolf"...L&C
Last week a small, footnote of news hit the wire. Kim Jong-un, the son of the recently passing, Kim Jong-il of North Korea, declared that the armistice between his nation and South Korea was terminated as of this Monday, the 11th of March. The north has been very aggressive in attitude toward the south in recent years. They have instituted acts of aggression after every election in the south with excessive force in 2010. In that year the north sunk a vessel of the south(Cheonan) killing 46 sailors. In addition, an artillery shelling of the south's island of Yeonpyeong cost two more lives. The south is on alert, but the international community treats this rhetoric as crying wolf.
The problem as I see it is this: a severe future acting out by N.Korea to gather attention. I see this small person like the terrible lost souls that inflicted so much pain in the world acting out. I'm talking about the recent incidents in Connecticut and Sweden.
Do you realize that modern, basic artillery weapons from the north could strike downtown Seoul? What little response the media gave to this fearful dialogue was that N.Korea didn't have the technology to put a nuclear warhead on a missile. Of course, the source of that info was our military. You know, the same guys who said Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. Intelligence?! There's another agency that needs a revamp.
Bottom line, I hope nothing happens, but consider this: on the 27th of July of this year, it will be the 60th anniversary of a war that has never been officially ended. In addition the Ides of March appear next week.
Liars and Crooks:this week goes to our leaders in government. The media was filled with fearful alerts that would result from the "Sequester." Dear reader, the lies are so bad, I have no idea what the truth is. According to Ron Paul the cuts to the government with the sequester were no cuts in spending at all. All it was according to Paul was not increasing spending in the budget. In any event the economy didn't stop, the world still revolves around the sun and life goes on. Having said that I'd like to march against our leaders with a protest march to all their lies to us their citizens and I would begin with the Consumer Price Index(CPI). The government has the nerve to not include food and energy in this report on inflation. Folks, I don't need to remind you that gasoline has increased .52cents in the 59 days of the first two months. Eggs have gone up in price 70%. You and I know this B.S. has got to stop. I demand that the future CPI only has two components, food and energy and if it did it would show inflation running over 10%. ..and as always end the Fed!
The problem as I see it is this: a severe future acting out by N.Korea to gather attention. I see this small person like the terrible lost souls that inflicted so much pain in the world acting out. I'm talking about the recent incidents in Connecticut and Sweden.
Do you realize that modern, basic artillery weapons from the north could strike downtown Seoul? What little response the media gave to this fearful dialogue was that N.Korea didn't have the technology to put a nuclear warhead on a missile. Of course, the source of that info was our military. You know, the same guys who said Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. Intelligence?! There's another agency that needs a revamp.
Bottom line, I hope nothing happens, but consider this: on the 27th of July of this year, it will be the 60th anniversary of a war that has never been officially ended. In addition the Ides of March appear next week.
Liars and Crooks:this week goes to our leaders in government. The media was filled with fearful alerts that would result from the "Sequester." Dear reader, the lies are so bad, I have no idea what the truth is. According to Ron Paul the cuts to the government with the sequester were no cuts in spending at all. All it was according to Paul was not increasing spending in the budget. In any event the economy didn't stop, the world still revolves around the sun and life goes on. Having said that I'd like to march against our leaders with a protest march to all their lies to us their citizens and I would begin with the Consumer Price Index(CPI). The government has the nerve to not include food and energy in this report on inflation. Folks, I don't need to remind you that gasoline has increased .52cents in the 59 days of the first two months. Eggs have gone up in price 70%. You and I know this B.S. has got to stop. I demand that the future CPI only has two components, food and energy and if it did it would show inflation running over 10%. ..and as always end the Fed!
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