If I had my book published, and I was well received, I would love to have a talk show. My guests would include the "OTHER" voices that do not get recognition or a venue within the media to state their view of the economy, the government and the environment. I would also like to provide a platform for opposition voices in world locations like the Ukraine, Japan, Middle East, et al. I would give equal time to the side that these people feel are in error. At the end of the show contrary to the usual format of prevailing productions, I would offer my two cents, whatever that is worth.
Today, I offer you, dear reader, a voice that is not well known, but shares my concern about the direction of the US economy, energy and the environment.
Peak Prosperity.com
is a website founded by Chris Martenson. He is a former biochemical scientist. He has written a book called Crash Course. His real worries center on debt creation by the Federal Reserve which has been growing at a plus 9% over the last twenty years, while our economy reflected in GDP has only averaged between 2% to 3% during the same period or triple which is unsustainable. He sees a financial crisis. He also fears that the global community is following our model and the effects on energy and the environment is also unsustainable. Unlike myself, he does not talk about the individual or labor within the economy, but he offers ideas to help the individual if there is a disruption within our society where water, energy and food could suffer from this disturbance. If you are interested, you can go to his website. Now, I will include some tidbits which fall under indicators like the stock market declining over 4% the past week.
Middle Class Jobs
You can file this under disappearing jobs to which our society is experiencing.
No one has given a definite description as to what entails being in the middle class, however economist agree that it is someone that falls within the following wage scale of $13.84 to $21.13 an hour, qualifies.
1) Mechanical drafters average annual salary of $50k and are declining at a 5% rate.
2) Insurance appraisers average $58k and are losing jobs at 5%.
3) Insurance underwriter average $62k and declining at 6.5%.
4) Mail clerk and mail machine operator, not including Post Office average $26.9k and down 8.8%.
5) Prep tech average $37k and falling at a 12.9% rate.
6) Telephone operator average $32k and declining at 13%.
7) Switchboard operator average $25k and also down 13%.
8) Reporters and correspondents average $35k and declining at 13.8%.
9) Reservation transportation average $32k and down at 14%.
10)Embalmers average $42k and dying like their job to the tune of 15%.
11)Door-to-door workers average $21k and falling 15%.
12)Computer operator average $38k and suffering at 17%.
13)Postmaster and mail superintendents average $63k and ouch! down 24%.
14)Data entry key-er average $28k and down 24.6%.
15)Word processors and typists average $35k and disappearing at a 25% clip.
In the news...
Now, add to the above the following news that Intel is laying off 5% of its workforce or 5k jobs. Hewlett-Packard is cutting 34k jobs or 11%. In addition, J.C.Penny is closing 33 stores and Macy's plans to also close some of its locations. In a previous piece I warned about Game Stop. They are also closing stores. While you digest that, add this for desert.
Hacking
Target and Neiman-Marcus and that adds up to a correction.
Liars and Crooks: the media for reporting that Congress agreed to fund the government and that there will not be a debt crisis in 2014. The issue has only been forestalled not concluded.
Saturday, January 25, 2014
Thursday, January 16, 2014
1964 US...2014 Global...L&C
US society was rocking again in 1964. It was reminded in 1963 that aside from prosperity, the US had a violent streak. The Beatles awoke the nation's youth and to the dismay of their parents, the older generation and the status quo, they rallied around the Fab Four. It was not the only visual rebellious act. In a more serious venue, young college students were becoming aware of the abuses to black people within the nation, especially in the South. There were stories on marches, protests, murders, riots and sit-ins continually on the six o'clock news.
TV had become more than entertainment. It brought the issues of the nation into our living rooms and bedrooms. TV helped Kennedy beat Nixon. It scared us all with the October Crisis. We all attended the president's funeral in 1963 through our black&white tubes. Our living standard was rising, but we became aware that the field was not level. The status quo would solve unemployment with deployment to Vietnam. They gave fertilizer to the seed of discontent. Only today, looking back do we realize how neither political party can be trusted to follow the dogma of Jefferson, " to promote the general welfare."
Change
There was a dull quiet throughout the nation until the Beatles landed at JFK in February of 1964. TV showed more than screaming girls for them. It showed the signs of change. In a continual drumbeat throughout the year, television news replayed one disturbance after another.
There are too many instances to repeat here, however after the murder of three young men in Mississippi, one black leader voiced these words, "I'm tired of going to funerals! I'm tired of it! You've got to stand up!" The decade's movement started with civil rights and ended with war protests. The economics weren't felt until inflation hit which led to a depression in the 1970s.
Today
Now, flash forward! Instead of TV, we got Smart phones, IPADs, and the Internet. The global community has economically improved, however the sins of their existence is catching up to them. If you look at the picture that I am writing about, you can connect the dot of protests, demonstrations and revolution. This atmosphere is not conducive for economic growth. At the moment, the overall effects of the various outbreaks cannot be totaled or viewed as one, which limits the impact. In addition, central banks are flooding the world with cheap money, which at present masks the economic situation. However, this will result in inflation down the road.
The world has caught up with the thinking and feeling that flowed in the US in 1964. It is not just me that sees things like this as cycles. Whether you have heard of the famous Russian economist, Nikolai Kondratiev, who developed his theory of waves or cycles in western capitalism at the turn of the century in the early 1900s to Harry Dent today, the concept has many followers and just as many disbelievers. Dent specializes in cycles, centering around demographics. He sees the West as old, which it is and emerging nation-states as young, which they are. He says there is a world vibe that grows every 200-250 years. During this period, revolution prevails. When you look at our own revolution in 1776, followed by the French Revolution and then, the rebellions which led to the modern states of Italy, Germany, Mexico, South America and more, how can one not see these cycles again? Technology is fostering this cycle in the global community just as the technology of TV helped drive it in 1964. If you say coincidence, the following are an awful lot of co-incidents, including the time line for this cycle.
Protests
The following nations had demonstrations that closed the nation, and by the way, these are on-going affairs that are still in progress. They are not going away like the snow by rain.
Thailand, Malaysia, Ukraine, Greece, Spain, Bangladesh, Chechnya, Russia, Zimbabwe, France and Yemen.
The following nations took their protests into rebellion: Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Syria, Congo and South Sudan.
Then, there are these other nations that are dealing with various problems from economic, energy, inflation and immigration.
China has protests on jobs and inflation.
Japan has protests on nuclear energy, jobs and inflation.
Australia just passed laws centering on limiting immigration due to jobs and culture.
Germany opened their borders in a limited fashion, but face national protest to this act.
India has problems with jobs and inflation and religious issues.
Ukraine just passed laws limiting protests like OWS. You can almost bet that this will escalate.
Then, there is the problem of refugees because there are civil wars, internecine wars and our-right wars like in Afghanistan. Poorer nations have been flooded with people fleeing the terrors of war. The following nations need help or new problems will arise due to the logistics of refugees and providing for them. Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, Somalia, Burundi, Rwanda, Pakistan and Uganda. Even larger nations like Italy, Germany, UK and US feel the impact of immigration at a time when jobs are scare.
The debate over cycles will continue, but the message of 1964 has arisen in emerging nations. Not being in one of those states, one cannot feel the impact in their society. In any event, I'm sure the following words will circulate, "I'm tired of going to funerals! I'm tired of it! You've got to stand up!"
Liars & Crooks: This week goes to West Virginia. They had a serious chemical leak that poisoned the drinking water in nine counties. The company which caused the problem, was purchased recently. At the time the seller told the buyer of the potential problem. Nothing was done. Why, you ask? Because the money influence in the state watered down the safety regulations under the old slogan, " that they were not necessary, cost too much and will result in the loss of jobs." You can always find a job, but you are only given one life. For those who died or became sick, understand this: Dupont and other influential companies got the state legislature to change and weaken safety laws . This storage facility had not been check since 1991 because the new law said it didn't have to. By the way this is the third leak in the last five years, not to mention all the mine collapses in this coal rich state.
TV had become more than entertainment. It brought the issues of the nation into our living rooms and bedrooms. TV helped Kennedy beat Nixon. It scared us all with the October Crisis. We all attended the president's funeral in 1963 through our black&white tubes. Our living standard was rising, but we became aware that the field was not level. The status quo would solve unemployment with deployment to Vietnam. They gave fertilizer to the seed of discontent. Only today, looking back do we realize how neither political party can be trusted to follow the dogma of Jefferson, " to promote the general welfare."
Change
There was a dull quiet throughout the nation until the Beatles landed at JFK in February of 1964. TV showed more than screaming girls for them. It showed the signs of change. In a continual drumbeat throughout the year, television news replayed one disturbance after another.
There are too many instances to repeat here, however after the murder of three young men in Mississippi, one black leader voiced these words, "I'm tired of going to funerals! I'm tired of it! You've got to stand up!" The decade's movement started with civil rights and ended with war protests. The economics weren't felt until inflation hit which led to a depression in the 1970s.
Today
Now, flash forward! Instead of TV, we got Smart phones, IPADs, and the Internet. The global community has economically improved, however the sins of their existence is catching up to them. If you look at the picture that I am writing about, you can connect the dot of protests, demonstrations and revolution. This atmosphere is not conducive for economic growth. At the moment, the overall effects of the various outbreaks cannot be totaled or viewed as one, which limits the impact. In addition, central banks are flooding the world with cheap money, which at present masks the economic situation. However, this will result in inflation down the road.
The world has caught up with the thinking and feeling that flowed in the US in 1964. It is not just me that sees things like this as cycles. Whether you have heard of the famous Russian economist, Nikolai Kondratiev, who developed his theory of waves or cycles in western capitalism at the turn of the century in the early 1900s to Harry Dent today, the concept has many followers and just as many disbelievers. Dent specializes in cycles, centering around demographics. He sees the West as old, which it is and emerging nation-states as young, which they are. He says there is a world vibe that grows every 200-250 years. During this period, revolution prevails. When you look at our own revolution in 1776, followed by the French Revolution and then, the rebellions which led to the modern states of Italy, Germany, Mexico, South America and more, how can one not see these cycles again? Technology is fostering this cycle in the global community just as the technology of TV helped drive it in 1964. If you say coincidence, the following are an awful lot of co-incidents, including the time line for this cycle.
Protests
The following nations had demonstrations that closed the nation, and by the way, these are on-going affairs that are still in progress. They are not going away like the snow by rain.
Thailand, Malaysia, Ukraine, Greece, Spain, Bangladesh, Chechnya, Russia, Zimbabwe, France and Yemen.
The following nations took their protests into rebellion: Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Syria, Congo and South Sudan.
Then, there are these other nations that are dealing with various problems from economic, energy, inflation and immigration.
China has protests on jobs and inflation.
Japan has protests on nuclear energy, jobs and inflation.
Australia just passed laws centering on limiting immigration due to jobs and culture.
Germany opened their borders in a limited fashion, but face national protest to this act.
India has problems with jobs and inflation and religious issues.
Ukraine just passed laws limiting protests like OWS. You can almost bet that this will escalate.
Then, there is the problem of refugees because there are civil wars, internecine wars and our-right wars like in Afghanistan. Poorer nations have been flooded with people fleeing the terrors of war. The following nations need help or new problems will arise due to the logistics of refugees and providing for them. Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, Somalia, Burundi, Rwanda, Pakistan and Uganda. Even larger nations like Italy, Germany, UK and US feel the impact of immigration at a time when jobs are scare.
The debate over cycles will continue, but the message of 1964 has arisen in emerging nations. Not being in one of those states, one cannot feel the impact in their society. In any event, I'm sure the following words will circulate, "I'm tired of going to funerals! I'm tired of it! You've got to stand up!"
Liars & Crooks: This week goes to West Virginia. They had a serious chemical leak that poisoned the drinking water in nine counties. The company which caused the problem, was purchased recently. At the time the seller told the buyer of the potential problem. Nothing was done. Why, you ask? Because the money influence in the state watered down the safety regulations under the old slogan, " that they were not necessary, cost too much and will result in the loss of jobs." You can always find a job, but you are only given one life. For those who died or became sick, understand this: Dupont and other influential companies got the state legislature to change and weaken safety laws . This storage facility had not been check since 1991 because the new law said it didn't have to. By the way this is the third leak in the last five years, not to mention all the mine collapses in this coal rich state.
Saturday, January 11, 2014
Art Pope: Modern Face of Aristocracy...L&C
In the battle between the blue and red states for control of the US government, a new poster child, Art Pope is providing the blueprint for far-right supremacy. This man is at the right-end of the extreme right line. He believes only in his viewpoint which helps to explain the lack of compromise within the framework of our present government.
Right-wing activists are pushing for people who will enact laws that are changing the face of the state. This has happened in Wisconsin, and now, with Art Pope in North Carolina, it moves up a few notches. Most right-wing policies center on tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy. Many, but not all, want vouchers for private schools. They all want to cut unemployment benefits, limit Medicaid and roll back electoral reforms, including voting rights.
There are other changes that the far-right would like to see, such as: to try 13-year old as adults, end collective bargaining(happened in Wisconsin),end public funding for political office, especially for judges and cutting in education from pre-K all the way to higher education.
Bottom line: Everything for the status quo and nothing for the working class citizens.
North Carolina
is the victorious example for the Republican Party as demonstrated by the influence of one, Art Pope. He is setting the table for others like the Koch brothers and et.al. wealthy citizens to establish rule within our government.
The script offers a frightening glimpse of how power and money might direct American politics for years. In a nutshell: he with the gold, rules.
In 2000 Art Pope realized that the Census provided strong info because it showed income, employment or unemployment, voting registration within districts. He also wanted to purge fellow Republicans who sometimes voted moderately. By studying voting districts he poured money into campaigns where the outcome would be close because of the voting make-up. In 19 voting districts, Pope backed 17 winners. There were other events which helped him to win like a Democrat who committed fraud and the Supreme Court in approving "Citizen United." This verdict allows outside money for a candidate and Pope has a lot of money. This is untraceable dollars, sometimes called,"dark money." It has no limit and it buys TV, radio, websites and publications. This allows Pope to get his message out over and over again. Repetition for effect. In my unpublished work I remind the readers of the influence of TV because it is so ingrained within our culture. Pope knows this and he showed how media influence could determine political outcomes. Since our culture is in sound bytes, all he had to say is so-and-so(Democrat)is costing us higher taxes. That Democrat is spending wastefully. Their candidate is costing us JOBS. No depth. No facts. Just repeat the message over and over again. His results should scare all of us.
Here is what Pope and Republicans mean when they say tax cuts. Someone making $250K in N.C. pays the same tax as someone making $25K. This state example is a deeper version of the Bush Tax Cuts which gives tax cuts of 75% to those in the top 5% of income.
Corporations pay lower tax bills than they did in 1978. No wonder they love Art Pope.
He also is opposed to public financing of judges. Without the funding lawyers would contribute to the same judge who would be making a decision in that lawyers future court case. Definitely a conflict of interest and Pope wants a sure thing, irregardless what is does to our society as a whole.
At the moment the government of North Carolina is veto-proof. Its state legislature can over-ride a governor veto. Glad I don't live in Tar Heel country.
Now, imagine the US being governed in the future with the above guidelines? One class of people for the same class of people of the same class of people. Welcome the Aristocracy.
Liars and Crooks: goes to Boeing for putting a gun to its employees by stating, "if you don't vote to stop pension funding by the company, the company will move its future work to a non-union state." But, it's your choice. It's your vote. ....Boeing won! Pensions will be off their books in 2016 and moved to self supporting 401Ks.
Right-wing activists are pushing for people who will enact laws that are changing the face of the state. This has happened in Wisconsin, and now, with Art Pope in North Carolina, it moves up a few notches. Most right-wing policies center on tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy. Many, but not all, want vouchers for private schools. They all want to cut unemployment benefits, limit Medicaid and roll back electoral reforms, including voting rights.
There are other changes that the far-right would like to see, such as: to try 13-year old as adults, end collective bargaining(happened in Wisconsin),end public funding for political office, especially for judges and cutting in education from pre-K all the way to higher education.
Bottom line: Everything for the status quo and nothing for the working class citizens.
North Carolina
is the victorious example for the Republican Party as demonstrated by the influence of one, Art Pope. He is setting the table for others like the Koch brothers and et.al. wealthy citizens to establish rule within our government.
The script offers a frightening glimpse of how power and money might direct American politics for years. In a nutshell: he with the gold, rules.
In 2000 Art Pope realized that the Census provided strong info because it showed income, employment or unemployment, voting registration within districts. He also wanted to purge fellow Republicans who sometimes voted moderately. By studying voting districts he poured money into campaigns where the outcome would be close because of the voting make-up. In 19 voting districts, Pope backed 17 winners. There were other events which helped him to win like a Democrat who committed fraud and the Supreme Court in approving "Citizen United." This verdict allows outside money for a candidate and Pope has a lot of money. This is untraceable dollars, sometimes called,"dark money." It has no limit and it buys TV, radio, websites and publications. This allows Pope to get his message out over and over again. Repetition for effect. In my unpublished work I remind the readers of the influence of TV because it is so ingrained within our culture. Pope knows this and he showed how media influence could determine political outcomes. Since our culture is in sound bytes, all he had to say is so-and-so(Democrat)is costing us higher taxes. That Democrat is spending wastefully. Their candidate is costing us JOBS. No depth. No facts. Just repeat the message over and over again. His results should scare all of us.
Here is what Pope and Republicans mean when they say tax cuts. Someone making $250K in N.C. pays the same tax as someone making $25K. This state example is a deeper version of the Bush Tax Cuts which gives tax cuts of 75% to those in the top 5% of income.
Corporations pay lower tax bills than they did in 1978. No wonder they love Art Pope.
He also is opposed to public financing of judges. Without the funding lawyers would contribute to the same judge who would be making a decision in that lawyers future court case. Definitely a conflict of interest and Pope wants a sure thing, irregardless what is does to our society as a whole.
At the moment the government of North Carolina is veto-proof. Its state legislature can over-ride a governor veto. Glad I don't live in Tar Heel country.
Now, imagine the US being governed in the future with the above guidelines? One class of people for the same class of people of the same class of people. Welcome the Aristocracy.
Liars and Crooks: goes to Boeing for putting a gun to its employees by stating, "if you don't vote to stop pension funding by the company, the company will move its future work to a non-union state." But, it's your choice. It's your vote. ....Boeing won! Pensions will be off their books in 2016 and moved to self supporting 401Ks.
Friday, January 3, 2014
Economic Forecast 2014
As there is always two sides to a story, the US economy will be affected by either the continuation of all the stimulus to a full recovery and, with events in the global community enacting similar ideas or an event could alter both economic projections. I have two indicators that could trigger an event. Nevertheless, the "free trade" powers have finally reached a transitional point in both the US economy and the global sector where their influence and policies are the dominant aspect as to whether our nation sees growth, and or, the same scenario for the global nations.
I see 2014 as the first time when discussing economies of scale that distinct world regions and trade alliances will be distinguished as opposed to the normal mentioning of the individual nation influence. This is part of the free trade powers plan. As they add layers upon layers to mask individual economies, they will slowly evaporate sovereign identity just like central bankers have eroded the influence of gold, deficit spending and balanced budgets.
If I had to label the make-up, I would describe it as follows: North America(US, Canada & Mexico), South America & Central America(all nations except Brazil which is a BRIC member), ECU and UK, Asian Rim, which will be broken into two parts:China and its new trading partners whose nations will have a carryover because of the two powerful economies of Japan and South Korea. In addition, the Arab Emirates will have a carryover in OPEC, BRIC members, new African associations except South Africa which will join the BRIC and Australia will have a major influence on China. Russia will open pipelines to the East and seek to grow its economy with its old satellite members.
The second trend that I see is the establishment of debt as king. Central bankers will continue to oppose gold and balanced budgets. They will offer plans centered around debt guidelines as the new paragon for running an economy. While this policy will never be stated, balanced budgets for governments will be out with debt guidelines that fall within a specific range will be the new normal. This will hide what I've been saying for years that the US does not have a real economy, but by the use of debt, stimulates enough to maintain the status quo. However, demographics will begin to under mind this policy. In fact, recent civil unrest will grow from "flash mobs, and knockout gangs" to looting and riots, due mainly to youth unemployment. I do not want to get into this at the moment, but continue with the influence of central bankers.
At the moment the US, Japan and Greece have debt-to-GDP ratios that surpass safe economic levels with the US over 100%, Japan over 250% and Greece at 156%. Funny thing about Greece, they were the only EU member to lower their debt ratio as all the other members grew their economies with debt. They forget that debt must be repaid which will bring gold back in fashion at a later date.
Predictions
by central bankers and world institutions state that the US and world economies will grow in 2014. Have they ever predicted a recession? Don't be silly, of course not!
My Forecast
as stated above, I see two possible red flags that could alter the world economies. The first is the continuation of the currency wars with individual nations seeking to devalue to gain market share which will help their domestic economy. This flight toward the bottom as already caused distress in world trade, especially to Brazil and India. They face more currency disruptions due to the falling in their national currency reserves.
The other big danger is rising interest rates. Both of these indicators are easy to follow because the info is published. Use the ten year bond on US treasuries as a starting point. If they continue to rise and surpass 3.5%, domestic markets will suffer with a ripple effect to the global community. Housing, dear reader, is central to every domestic economy. In addition, real estate bubbles could pop in Finland, Netherlands, China and Australia. Do I have to remind you that the current interest rates are below normal and the present cost of money is in a deviant mode. Jobs are still needed in every economy irregardless of what is reported about the health of any particular nation.
There are many other little problems that could develop out of control like the Arab Spring. After central banks, the military complex is the most dangerous entity that could alter the future.
In a related theme to flare-ups, the search for natural resources will continue, but not yet in a dangerous zone. World oil supplies are abundant with the notable addition of US supply.
Alternative energy will still be more rhetoric than fact. Natural gas will have a greater effect, especially in manufacturing, transportation and production of electricity. Nuclear will try to resurface with a big push in Japan and emerging nations.
Health
Obamacare will be front and center. It will cause the US debt to explode.
The central meme of this forecast is that the confluence point in the US economy and the global community has been reached and whether central bankers can continue to mask problems with debt as more revenues will be needed to cover past and present shortfalls.
In the US the first crack will appear in retail because demographics will show falling revenues. This will cause companies to close stores, cut jobs. They will continue to hide these points by buying back stock, but time will tell and the market will suffer.
Ghetto Nation
closing of stores will have a domino effect. This will take time, but once it starts, the ending is predetermined. The loss of anchor stores to malls and shopping centers will lead to business foreclosures. Many areas will relive the early 60s and 70s when the first national haircut took place with the ramifications to numerous to mention here. If this occurs we will reenter a recession, however if stagflation appears, the picture turns ugly with a depression. At the moment this is not on the horizon, but central bankers have no answer for demographics. If there are no buyers, prices fall. We are already in a disinflation environment which is only hidden due to stimulus. Like I said, we are at the confluence point . We could grow or fail to grow depending on the two main danger aspects.
I see 2014 as the first time when discussing economies of scale that distinct world regions and trade alliances will be distinguished as opposed to the normal mentioning of the individual nation influence. This is part of the free trade powers plan. As they add layers upon layers to mask individual economies, they will slowly evaporate sovereign identity just like central bankers have eroded the influence of gold, deficit spending and balanced budgets.
If I had to label the make-up, I would describe it as follows: North America(US, Canada & Mexico), South America & Central America(all nations except Brazil which is a BRIC member), ECU and UK, Asian Rim, which will be broken into two parts:China and its new trading partners whose nations will have a carryover because of the two powerful economies of Japan and South Korea. In addition, the Arab Emirates will have a carryover in OPEC, BRIC members, new African associations except South Africa which will join the BRIC and Australia will have a major influence on China. Russia will open pipelines to the East and seek to grow its economy with its old satellite members.
The second trend that I see is the establishment of debt as king. Central bankers will continue to oppose gold and balanced budgets. They will offer plans centered around debt guidelines as the new paragon for running an economy. While this policy will never be stated, balanced budgets for governments will be out with debt guidelines that fall within a specific range will be the new normal. This will hide what I've been saying for years that the US does not have a real economy, but by the use of debt, stimulates enough to maintain the status quo. However, demographics will begin to under mind this policy. In fact, recent civil unrest will grow from "flash mobs, and knockout gangs" to looting and riots, due mainly to youth unemployment. I do not want to get into this at the moment, but continue with the influence of central bankers.
At the moment the US, Japan and Greece have debt-to-GDP ratios that surpass safe economic levels with the US over 100%, Japan over 250% and Greece at 156%. Funny thing about Greece, they were the only EU member to lower their debt ratio as all the other members grew their economies with debt. They forget that debt must be repaid which will bring gold back in fashion at a later date.
Predictions
by central bankers and world institutions state that the US and world economies will grow in 2014. Have they ever predicted a recession? Don't be silly, of course not!
My Forecast
as stated above, I see two possible red flags that could alter the world economies. The first is the continuation of the currency wars with individual nations seeking to devalue to gain market share which will help their domestic economy. This flight toward the bottom as already caused distress in world trade, especially to Brazil and India. They face more currency disruptions due to the falling in their national currency reserves.
The other big danger is rising interest rates. Both of these indicators are easy to follow because the info is published. Use the ten year bond on US treasuries as a starting point. If they continue to rise and surpass 3.5%, domestic markets will suffer with a ripple effect to the global community. Housing, dear reader, is central to every domestic economy. In addition, real estate bubbles could pop in Finland, Netherlands, China and Australia. Do I have to remind you that the current interest rates are below normal and the present cost of money is in a deviant mode. Jobs are still needed in every economy irregardless of what is reported about the health of any particular nation.
There are many other little problems that could develop out of control like the Arab Spring. After central banks, the military complex is the most dangerous entity that could alter the future.
In a related theme to flare-ups, the search for natural resources will continue, but not yet in a dangerous zone. World oil supplies are abundant with the notable addition of US supply.
Alternative energy will still be more rhetoric than fact. Natural gas will have a greater effect, especially in manufacturing, transportation and production of electricity. Nuclear will try to resurface with a big push in Japan and emerging nations.
Health
Obamacare will be front and center. It will cause the US debt to explode.
The central meme of this forecast is that the confluence point in the US economy and the global community has been reached and whether central bankers can continue to mask problems with debt as more revenues will be needed to cover past and present shortfalls.
In the US the first crack will appear in retail because demographics will show falling revenues. This will cause companies to close stores, cut jobs. They will continue to hide these points by buying back stock, but time will tell and the market will suffer.
Ghetto Nation
closing of stores will have a domino effect. This will take time, but once it starts, the ending is predetermined. The loss of anchor stores to malls and shopping centers will lead to business foreclosures. Many areas will relive the early 60s and 70s when the first national haircut took place with the ramifications to numerous to mention here. If this occurs we will reenter a recession, however if stagflation appears, the picture turns ugly with a depression. At the moment this is not on the horizon, but central bankers have no answer for demographics. If there are no buyers, prices fall. We are already in a disinflation environment which is only hidden due to stimulus. Like I said, we are at the confluence point . We could grow or fail to grow depending on the two main danger aspects.
Friday, December 20, 2013
Florida: Microview of the Future...L&C
I just returned to the tourist capital of the state of Florida. Last Tuesday, I was standing in four inches of snow in New York. I'm glad to walk under the sunrays that hit a high of 83 degees today in Orlando. Moving is very hectic, but it gives many insights. I have noticed quite a few changes in Florida and although it still is the Sunshine State, economically, it is no longer a retirement paradise.
Governor Scott(R)was in town to annouce that the state unemployment is below the national average at 6.4%. He also stated that Orlando is leading the way at 5.8%. Maybe I'll find a job. I'm going to need one as my impressions are all negative.
Food and Energy
I never thought I would say this, but food costs, both fresh produce and supermarket prices are cheaper in Queens, New York than in Orlando. It is not even close.
Gasoline is higher in New York, but the difference is in local taxes.
Rents are crazy in San Francisco and New York, but they are getting serious competition in Orlando.
In case you might consider buying a home in Florida, consider this. Florida has the highest home owners insurance costs in the nation. It is the fifth highest in auto insurance, and it has always been in the top ten in real estate taxes. Of course, there is no state taxes on income, at least for now. The state is very dependent on federal government aid.
Finally, and this dear reader, is the biggest insight of all: utilities.
In case you might consider buying a home in Florida, consider this. Florida has the highest home owners insurance costs in the nation. It is the fifth highest in auto insurance, and it has always been in the top ten in real estate taxes. Of course, there is no state taxes on income, at least for now. The state is very dependent on federal government aid.
Finally, and this dear reader, is the biggest insight of all: utilities.
OUC
stands for Orlando Utilities. It used to be very reasonable and provide great service, in fact, their nickname is the Reliable One. Not anymore!
I went to the central office in downtown Orlando to turn on the power to my new apartment. Previously, I had been a good customer for over 25 years with never a blemish in any of my bills. I have been out of state for two years. OUC has no record of me. In addition, they required me to make a deposit, however I am getting ahead of the story.
I entered the building from the remodeled front door with a turn-a-round driveway for easy pickup and dropoff. This was done about four years ago. They no longer need it.
Upon entering a guard with his hand on his waist near his weapon, asked me what I was doing there? I stated that I wanted to know where I needed to go to commence power with the company. He said that the company has outsourced all billing and service. I asked where do I go? He hands me a brochure, pointing to a phone number. He said call that number and he pointed me back to the door to leave. Outside, I see the brochure is written in Spanish. I call the number. After the menu, a lady tells me that I have to go to one of the many retail location like Kmart. At Kmart the sales help did not know how to take the deposit to turn on the power to my apartment.
Long story, short: The forth location was able to help me, however by using these outsourced locations, I must pay an additional service charge of $1.25. This at first does not sound like much, but the Whitestone Bridge in New York was only .25cents in the beginning of the toll charges. Today, they charge $14. to go over the bridge.
Bottom Line:
OUC is a utility that provides no service. You cannot speak to anyone face-to-face about service or billing. Welcome to the future.
Liars and Crooks: Congress has just done a deal to end the battles over the debt ceiling, the budget and spending. The Republicans decided to compromise because they feel that Obamacare will be such a failure that they want to gamble it will get them back in power. The members decided to get reelected with higher spending. One of the lobbyists got this $300 million dollar fiasco under the military budget. It is a dirigible to spy in Afghanistan. It is over budget and it has only been tested once. Nothing like an ancient relic flying real slow that any ding-dong with a rifle could shoot down with one bullet. The only Zeppellin worth having is Led, but I guess Congress is Dazed and Confused.
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
Mr.Cano and Inflated $...Special
Robinson Cano is the New York Yankees second-baseman and his contract is up. Cano has decided to become a free agent which means that he can sign with any team that is willing to meet what he feels is fair pay for his services. Fair pay for professional athlete's is partly what I'm upset about as well as CEO compensation and of course, the Federal Reserve which is destroying our standard of living which is in itself the root cause in the debasement of the purchasing power of the dollar.
This story demonstrates many things, but three come to mind as I'm sure that you, dear reader can think of many, many more.
Why is it that CEOs in the US average more than 300x the wages of their employees, and fail to increase products, jobs or value to the company that hired them?
Why is it that for the average working citizen working full time and their yearly wages cannot meet the cost of a new car? Now, that may sound off the mark when there are vehicles for less than $20K, but I'm talking about disposable income after the necessary expenses like food, shelter and medical.
When you look at it in that light, it is a wonder that anyone can afford a car period. Ah, the miracle of financing which means more debt and less disposable income after all obligations have been met. Of course, new behavior of non-responsibility means that you don't make house payments and blame the problem of your money mismanagement on to someone else, but I will not entertain that problem which there are books dedicated.
Why is it that government conspires to find new ways to show that the Consumer Price Index(CPI) reveals no inflation? Maybe because this reduces the government's COLAs(cost-of-living) for social security and lowers interest rates for bonds like TIPS. While at the same time government leaders decry all social benefits as the cause of all our debt, past, present and future?
The Answer? Because the government uses the Federal Reserve as a rubber stamp to continue spending more than revenues. The wealth of the nation allowed the banking industry to evolve, but the nation no longer creates wealth but masks itself under pretend by we are rising with borrowed spending, while at the same time, lowering the value of the dollar which is stealing from its citizens who cannot increase their wages at the same rate as the devaluing in purchasing power of the dollar.
M3
is no longer published by the Fed. It stopped in 2006 and prior to that, this volatility of money was growing in double digits which means a lower dollar down the road and inflation. The inflation has been held in check due to the fact that the Fed pays the banks to hold money in reserve and the same banks can borrow at zero interest which is easy money as long as it is held in its vaults which is a risk in itself.
The rest of the "printed" money which is not printed at all, but all electronic is used by the Fed to purchase bonds and securities under its QE program. The real question is this, now that the Fed balance sheet is over $3T, what security do we have that there is real value in this balance sheet and is it worth the estimated value? Who backs the Fed?
At the moment the Fed purchases 61% of all Treasuries, because no one else would with their low interest and high risk. If rates rise, then the value of the Fed's purchases decline which begets the question, who backs the Fed?
Where does this all lead and how does it relate to Mr. Cano?
The Yankees offered him $14m per year which he laughed at. Can you believe that? How much does a ticket to the game cost, if the stars are making money out of this universe? He wants $30m per year for ten years.
When I was a kid, I collected soda bottles. When I had .50cents, I could sit in the bleacher section at the old stadium. My dream was to make enough to get into the actual ballpark with a grandstand seat, but things change as well as laws.
Long Story Short:
Bottles were out along with thrift and debt was in along with waste. As a teenager, I was no longer interested in going to the ballpark. The Yankees should become aware of demographics which are working against them. Now, when I hear about these crazy contracts, I'm turned off on sports. In the same way I'm angry about CEO pay and most of all, I realize this is all because of the Federal Reserve which has debased the value of the dollar 95% since it took power in 1913. 100 years of poor results! End the Fed!
Special
This past Saturday there was a rival college football game played between number one Alabama and number four, Auburn. It was a good game with lead changes and ties that extended to the last second when Alabama would attempt a 57 yard field goal to win. This was a long shot, but if the kicker missed, the team would still have the overtime period to win and 'Bama had the better team. Well, the Auburn coach made a great precocious move by placing his kick return player, Davis in the end zone in case of a miss to which his team could return as the play would not end until his player was tackled. Surprise! The kicker misses as expected, but Davis returns the kick 108 yards to win the game for Auburn in one of the great moments that sports gives us. This is the beauty of sport and it is a shame that money is sullying everything, including the Olympics. I see that someone is offering $100K for the ball. Please, Auburn keep it in your trophy case and priceless like the TD pass that Flutie threw against Miami against the wind for 60 yards in the last second to knock the Canes out of the national championship and to win the game for Boston College. Go Irish!
This story demonstrates many things, but three come to mind as I'm sure that you, dear reader can think of many, many more.
Why is it that CEOs in the US average more than 300x the wages of their employees, and fail to increase products, jobs or value to the company that hired them?
Why is it that for the average working citizen working full time and their yearly wages cannot meet the cost of a new car? Now, that may sound off the mark when there are vehicles for less than $20K, but I'm talking about disposable income after the necessary expenses like food, shelter and medical.
When you look at it in that light, it is a wonder that anyone can afford a car period. Ah, the miracle of financing which means more debt and less disposable income after all obligations have been met. Of course, new behavior of non-responsibility means that you don't make house payments and blame the problem of your money mismanagement on to someone else, but I will not entertain that problem which there are books dedicated.
Why is it that government conspires to find new ways to show that the Consumer Price Index(CPI) reveals no inflation? Maybe because this reduces the government's COLAs(cost-of-living) for social security and lowers interest rates for bonds like TIPS. While at the same time government leaders decry all social benefits as the cause of all our debt, past, present and future?
The Answer? Because the government uses the Federal Reserve as a rubber stamp to continue spending more than revenues. The wealth of the nation allowed the banking industry to evolve, but the nation no longer creates wealth but masks itself under pretend by we are rising with borrowed spending, while at the same time, lowering the value of the dollar which is stealing from its citizens who cannot increase their wages at the same rate as the devaluing in purchasing power of the dollar.
M3
is no longer published by the Fed. It stopped in 2006 and prior to that, this volatility of money was growing in double digits which means a lower dollar down the road and inflation. The inflation has been held in check due to the fact that the Fed pays the banks to hold money in reserve and the same banks can borrow at zero interest which is easy money as long as it is held in its vaults which is a risk in itself.
The rest of the "printed" money which is not printed at all, but all electronic is used by the Fed to purchase bonds and securities under its QE program. The real question is this, now that the Fed balance sheet is over $3T, what security do we have that there is real value in this balance sheet and is it worth the estimated value? Who backs the Fed?
At the moment the Fed purchases 61% of all Treasuries, because no one else would with their low interest and high risk. If rates rise, then the value of the Fed's purchases decline which begets the question, who backs the Fed?
Where does this all lead and how does it relate to Mr. Cano?
The Yankees offered him $14m per year which he laughed at. Can you believe that? How much does a ticket to the game cost, if the stars are making money out of this universe? He wants $30m per year for ten years.
When I was a kid, I collected soda bottles. When I had .50cents, I could sit in the bleacher section at the old stadium. My dream was to make enough to get into the actual ballpark with a grandstand seat, but things change as well as laws.
Long Story Short:
Bottles were out along with thrift and debt was in along with waste. As a teenager, I was no longer interested in going to the ballpark. The Yankees should become aware of demographics which are working against them. Now, when I hear about these crazy contracts, I'm turned off on sports. In the same way I'm angry about CEO pay and most of all, I realize this is all because of the Federal Reserve which has debased the value of the dollar 95% since it took power in 1913. 100 years of poor results! End the Fed!
Special
This past Saturday there was a rival college football game played between number one Alabama and number four, Auburn. It was a good game with lead changes and ties that extended to the last second when Alabama would attempt a 57 yard field goal to win. This was a long shot, but if the kicker missed, the team would still have the overtime period to win and 'Bama had the better team. Well, the Auburn coach made a great precocious move by placing his kick return player, Davis in the end zone in case of a miss to which his team could return as the play would not end until his player was tackled. Surprise! The kicker misses as expected, but Davis returns the kick 108 yards to win the game for Auburn in one of the great moments that sports gives us. This is the beauty of sport and it is a shame that money is sullying everything, including the Olympics. I see that someone is offering $100K for the ball. Please, Auburn keep it in your trophy case and priceless like the TD pass that Flutie threw against Miami against the wind for 60 yards in the last second to knock the Canes out of the national championship and to win the game for Boston College. Go Irish!
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
Told You So...L&C
Sebastian, Johnny L, and JFL have all told you in countless pieces that you can no longer trust our government agencies, the Federal Reserve and our government leaders when it comes to telling the truth about our economy and their policies. Truth comes slowly, but it can't be stopped.
Last week Julius Buckmon, a Census Bureau appointee, confirmed that his supervisors had asked him to fudge his interviews, concerning labor employment. In addition, he revealed that he is not the only one because higher pay came with "positive" numbers. Like we have stated, the fake positive news pushes the stock market higher and all the info is being built on wet sand and the walls are as thick as playing cards.
Keep in mind that our banks were already caught rigging the Libor Loan Rate and Wall Street paid up for selling securities while at the same time were doubling down against the same toxic packages that their agents sold to customers. Don't forget the triple AAA ratings of the rating agencies that helped Wall Street deceive its clients.
Here is another example that reveals manipulation. The Department of Energy(DOE) stated gasoline usage have returned to the pre-crisis level of 2007, however the Bureau of Economic Analysis which follows the same category, but uses sales at the pump to obtain their results which shows no gain, but sees gasoline usage declines for six years in a row. By the way gasoline inventories have had 10 weekly straight builds which counters more usage.
Finally, do you recall the Working Group? Goes back to the first president Bush who gathered together the Fed and Wall Street biggies, to work to stabilize the market when a severe downturn was present. Later, Secretary of Treasury, Paulson did the same thing with a new moniker, Plunge Protection Team(PPT). Well, I can't prove it, but I think the present Fed is buying future index opinions to keep the stock market up. We need a real hero to find out if this serious violation of our free markets is indeed happening. This brings to mind how lucky our nation is to have in the past, true leaders like Andrew Jackson and with Thanksgiving approaching, I thought that you, my dear readers would like to read what a true leader thought of money, the Fed(called the National Bank in his day)and professional people to which we know call, lobbyists.
- "Men when under the influence of interest or passion often delude themselves thoughtlessly, and do not always acknowledge even to themselves the motives upon which they really act...
It was one of the dangers arising from this mammoth power, that its very duties as collecting and disbursing agent brought and other public functionaries and made it acquainted with their wants and enabled it to place them under obligation and create a feeling of dependence or even gratitude without the direct and offensive offer of a bribe."
Liars and Crooks: goes to president Obama who used Air Force One last week to go to Miami for a fund raiser and play golf. This may not actually be either of my categories(L&C)but it displays poor judgment. The cost to taxpayers runs over $200,000 per hour and all the president achieved was personal riches and pleasure.
Last week Julius Buckmon, a Census Bureau appointee, confirmed that his supervisors had asked him to fudge his interviews, concerning labor employment. In addition, he revealed that he is not the only one because higher pay came with "positive" numbers. Like we have stated, the fake positive news pushes the stock market higher and all the info is being built on wet sand and the walls are as thick as playing cards.
Keep in mind that our banks were already caught rigging the Libor Loan Rate and Wall Street paid up for selling securities while at the same time were doubling down against the same toxic packages that their agents sold to customers. Don't forget the triple AAA ratings of the rating agencies that helped Wall Street deceive its clients.
Here is another example that reveals manipulation. The Department of Energy(DOE) stated gasoline usage have returned to the pre-crisis level of 2007, however the Bureau of Economic Analysis which follows the same category, but uses sales at the pump to obtain their results which shows no gain, but sees gasoline usage declines for six years in a row. By the way gasoline inventories have had 10 weekly straight builds which counters more usage.
Finally, do you recall the Working Group? Goes back to the first president Bush who gathered together the Fed and Wall Street biggies, to work to stabilize the market when a severe downturn was present. Later, Secretary of Treasury, Paulson did the same thing with a new moniker, Plunge Protection Team(PPT). Well, I can't prove it, but I think the present Fed is buying future index opinions to keep the stock market up. We need a real hero to find out if this serious violation of our free markets is indeed happening. This brings to mind how lucky our nation is to have in the past, true leaders like Andrew Jackson and with Thanksgiving approaching, I thought that you, my dear readers would like to read what a true leader thought of money, the Fed(called the National Bank in his day)and professional people to which we know call, lobbyists.
- "Men when under the influence of interest or passion often delude themselves thoughtlessly, and do not always acknowledge even to themselves the motives upon which they really act...
It was one of the dangers arising from this mammoth power, that its very duties as collecting and disbursing agent brought and other public functionaries and made it acquainted with their wants and enabled it to place them under obligation and create a feeling of dependence or even gratitude without the direct and offensive offer of a bribe."
Liars and Crooks: goes to president Obama who used Air Force One last week to go to Miami for a fund raiser and play golf. This may not actually be either of my categories(L&C)but it displays poor judgment. The cost to taxpayers runs over $200,000 per hour and all the president achieved was personal riches and pleasure.
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