Weather: Cold Outside and for Bonds...L&C

The month of February is short and halfway through it there have been over 75,000 flight cancellations. Oil is back over $100 a barrel and with the spring driving season one month away, prices can rise even further. Together, it points at a target. Can you say, short airline stocks?
Before you jump, check the charts for high/low price range and of course, keep an eye on the weather. I remember a snow storm on St.Pat's Day(17 March) and more white stuff at Wrigley Field for the Cubs opener. So far, 2014 is becoming the "weather year" as the media loves labels.
This is all well and good, but I know that you, dear reader can be anywhere in the world. Wherever you are however, you need to watch what is happening in the 10 year bond market. The Federal Reserve in the US sets the floor for rates, but money moves to where it is best treated. Recently, currency distortions in India and Turkey have caused those governments to raise rates to attract money due to reserve shortfalls. I have told you about this and the world stock markets have felt distress since the beginning of the new year. At present, the market feels that this problem is solved and now, it is back to higher prices.
Not so Fast, Tonto
I can't pass for the Lone Ranger, but I can see through the mask of the market. Governments have complained about all other currencies seeking market export share by devaluing. However, they all rush into the bond market to lock-in big bucks while interest rates are low. This is all based on the continuing low inflation outlook. The market says prices are below inflation and that they expect that prices will stay low or stabilize at current levels.
One indicator of this is the rise in the gap in pricing to .69% last month, the most since 2011. The linker bonds that have sold have all tumbled in value as inflation continues to disappear and some call a disinflation environment.
Inflation v. Deflation
debate. However, standing strong in the corner of inflation is the huge debt volume of the US. Recent bond auctions give the answer. Six month T-Bills totaled $15b in 2007 and last week, the same government needed $30b or a double. See what I mean? To double money in seven years, you need an interest rate of 10% and the last time I looked, the ten year rate is 2.75%. Something is afoot?
One answer is the fact that the Fed has been increasing the money supply at 10% for the last six years. Bernanke use to say before he left last month that the Fed only added a debit on an electronic ledger and this money will not add to inflation because it is not actually money. Oh, really? He forgot to mention that we have fractional banking. The banks purchase the same bonds from the Fed and with magic, they can lend 90% of that money and then, 80% of that money and so on. This is how they grow their balance sheets to which, the Fed's was $800b in 2007 and now, sits around $4T. See a pattern? I see a big, big problem.
US deficits passed $17t last week and if rates rise, this figure could double, just like it has since 2007.
By the way, International Capital, a report by the treasury says outflows were $46b last month and PIMCO, the largest bond trader in the US says it also had outflows of $3.5b. Investors are looking for higher yields. Together, this indicates a change in the weather, however, let's continue with the trend by governments who are pushing sales of inflation-linked bonds, wagering that consumer prices will remain subdued. They got support last week when the guidelines to determine inflation just got changed, and of course, these changes limit inflation. Talk about timing!
35 Nations
issued $-one trillion of the securities in the past year, the "most" on record according to Bloomberg.
On the flip side, the recent rout of currencies as mentioned are igniting some inflation fears. These governments are adding serious debts. Sales of linker bonds have exceeded $300b for three straight years with the US issuing the most, $155b and Italy, second with $63b.
Linkers
adjust their interest rates based on inflation. In the US these are called TIPS and recently, sold as low as .661% for a ten year term. Yields were .51% which is really, really low.
One other aspect why some are buying is the fact that central banks have purchased over $20.5t under asset-purchase programs. A negative aspect is if rates rise, these bonds decline in value. Not good and with the example that I have provided indicates that low rates are ending because debt continues to rise irregardless of austerity and other deflationary measures. Now, I have one other aspect that I feel no one looks at thoroughly or at least thinks it through all the way.
Japan
Under Prime Minister Abe has directed the BOJ to massively increase the money supply with the goal to reach 2 to 3% inflation. If he succeeds, what will happen to all the previous bond holders of Japanese bonds who happen to be its citizens who hold around 90% and receive only .75% for a ten year duration? They will sell seeking the new higher return of at least 3% according to Abe's goal. This massive selling will implode the Japanese bond market. Idiot!
Not to be outdone by anyone else, the Fed under Ben is seeking a 2% goal in yearly inflation. Let us count ten years of 2%. WOW! That means the 2.75% T-Bill is losing money to inflation and like the six month auction totals, the rates should actually be 10% or the previous norm of 6.9%. This means when investors wake up, they will sell massive amounts of T-Bills seeking a higher rate. This could implode the US bond market. Added to this is the additional stupid fact that our government has not locked into these low rates for long-tern bonds. The vast majority of the governments bonds are short-term because why lock in a 3.75% when you can get a .75% in weekly auctions?
Estupido Puerco!
look at the results these idiots have given us. Debts over $17t which is also a double since 2007 when it was $7.9t.
Government spending levels are 40% of GDP and no one mentions the unfunded liabilities of over $61t which makes each citizens share $534k per household.
Federal debt exceeds 100% of the nation's output. This is the figure that sparked the problems in Greece and if rates rise, the debts grow exponentially.
Liars and Crooks:Obama care has started along with exemptions for every Tom, Dick and Harry. It is like Mark Twain said, "there are lies, damn lies and statistics!"

Food Fight...L&C

We got big problems with dinner. California grows one-forth of our fresh produce. It is suffering a water drought. It has cut back its water supply to 25 million people within the state. This ban also effects over one million acres of farmland. By the way farmers use 80% of the state's water. Its only water plan is to cut back, seek supplies from other states and hope for rain. Too bad my book isn't published because I would have an answer for them, the US and world.
Closer Look
Farmers within the state knew the situation and they are trying various methods like machines that indicate the best time to water, soil analysis and outside the box consultation. There is one other major problem. Pollination.
Bees
perform the pollination, but bee farmers are also suffering from collapse of their hives. Bees are dying in serious numbers with no present answers, although many scientist are looking into the problem. Many bee farmers think it is because of all the chemicals in pesticides.
Case in point: Almond growers in California get their bees from a hive that comes all the way across to the state from Georgia. Three thousand miles! The same farmer of bees has to back track to the peach state to allow his bees to relax from toxins and pesticides with this trip, so his bees can complete his contracts to pollinate apples in Pennsylvania, blue berries in Maine and then, in route back to Georgia, stops in Virgina, North Carolina and South Carolina. This is a serious problem that all farmers are facing.
Then, we have litigation with GMOs. Seed suppliers like Monsanto have gotten the courts to say for example, a farmer uses "old seed" for his corn, but on both sides of him are farmers who use the new modified seeds. Monsanto sues the middle farmer because the company says this farmer has benefited from its seed, although that farmer did not purchase Monsanto's seeds. Farmers are under threat to use the GMOs or face being sued by deep pockets. Our nation and small farmers are losing in this battle.
Detroit
Did you know that all supermarkets have left the city. They suffer from food drought. In addition because so many have left the city, the local government has fostered the idea to allow the empty lots to be used to grow food. They have also supplied a abandoned building for a farmers market for its citizens. I like that idea, however consider the rest of the nation. In many localities like New Jersey, people cannot sell produce on road side stands. They want tax dollars, red tape permits and more.
Finally, a farm bill was passed by Congress last week, but food stamps were cut and the bottom line is that only 2% of the population grows food for the other 98%. I know this is a very dangerous situation because every plant that I ever had died on me. Can you grow your own?
Liars and Crooks: The Congressional Budget Office(CBO)stated last week that Obama-care will result in more part-time workers just as I predicted. At present we have a record number of part-time workers in the so-called recovery at 28million people. How do you provide for yourself, never mind a family on part-time wages?

Fed Legacy, #3s Outlook and This & That...L&C

Ben Bernanke has left the building! I'll consider the day that the Fed is eliminated to be a real, happy news flash. The media has little to talk about until next week with the Winter Olympics, so they have been throwing around the praises of one, Ben Bernanke. He saved the economy! He saved jobs! He saved the dollar! Did he lose Lehman? Is Yellen going to continue his programs? On-and-on they go where they stop nobody knows.
This is the way I see it. As stated many times, I'm against the Federal Reserve because it is a shill for the rich and bankers in general. They do nothing for citizens. They are not elected and they have the power to control our economy. This circumvents our elected government. The fake modern spin of their dual mandate for the economy and jobs lies in the face of history when it was argued to be needed to ensure currency and credit liquidity. No one ever mentions that our currency has been debased by the Fed to the tune of 95% since they took control. They are the main reason for the Depression and almost all the recessions. Bernanke himself has been at the Fed since 2002 and all he did was double down on Greenspan's increase to the money supply which has been pointed to be inflationary, lowers standard of living and loses jobs.
Keep in mind when he took control in 2006 and the housing bubble began to surface, he said it was contained. Later, he said it would never take root in a national issue. He created money and programs which bailed out the rich and their investments like AIG. Not only just in the US, but foreign bankers were also thrown a life preserver. And that is how I see his legacy. Sorry, dear reader for the misuse of the word legacy. It should be as he continued the scam...
Japan
has published its forecast. It says growth will grow by 1.4%. There economic year begins in March. Last year saw a spurt of 2.6% increase, but in reality, the growth can all be attributed to the election of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who increased the money supply which lowered the value of the yen which made Japan's exports cheaper and created demand. He also increased income taxes, and has slated for a sales tax increase to 8% in April. If he is successful, stays in office, he plans to increase the sales tax to 10% by 2015. I know one thing, sales taxes hurt poor people, income taxes hurt everyone and when one country lowers its currency, another is sure to follow.
Japanese policy-makers state that long-term debt will be halved by 2015/16. This is a result of higher income taxes and revenues. They like our recent past presidents have all declared things will work out on deficits down the road in the future. However, when you reach that fork in the road, it is a dead end street.
Japan's deficit will be 185% of GDP by March of 2021, but they are basing this on obtaining an average growth rate of 3% until then. They have not had one 3% yearly growth in a very long time. By the way the projections do not include some aspects of the economy. You know, off the books, like the reconstruction bond because of the earthquake and nuclear damage.
Dear reader, Japan was at one time the number one exporter and number two economy overall. Today, Germany vies with China for number one in exports and Japan has fallen to number three and they could fall even lower. The rewards for debasing the yen do not match the hardships face by the ordinary citizens and just like the Fed does to US citizens by lowering our standard of living and by devaluing our currency.
In a related story the US government says that our deficit will be halved to $514b after recording a drop to $680b in 2013. I have doubts about these figures. They do not include entitlements with 73 million baby boomers looking for social security, military money, NSA money, and who knows  what else is off the books. Only the Shadow knows...
One Question
if revenues are higher for the government and since the deficit has declined both last year and projected too this year, why does President Obama need to raise the debt ceiling for higher deficits?
Keystone XL
pipeline won't be mentioned, but behind the doors deals will get it approved, probably just after the extension of the debt level.
In other related aspects several bigger economies are slated to seek bond money due to maturing issues. India, Brazil, Russia and China need a lot of money like $7.43t. China alone needs over $3t. They all will face higher rates which makes money more expensive, especially if you debase the value of your currency.
For Sunny and Cher
the beat goes on with Walmart announcing 2.3k layoffs at Sam Club. PIMCO said it had outflows of $3.5b in January. The winter weather caused the cancellation of 49,000 flights in January which effected 30 million people which caused them to spend $2.5b in unforeseen costs due to the delays.
Liars and Crooks: I do not like to post stories that I cannot confirm, but if this is true, it is very sad. According to complaints by Russian workers at Sochi, they have not been paid for their work with an average of $7,000euros for each worker. C!mon! Pay the man!

Another Opinion and Indicators...L&C

If I had my book published, and I was well received, I would love to have a talk show. My guests would include the "OTHER" voices that do not get recognition or a venue within the media to state their view of the economy, the government and the environment. I would also like to provide a platform for opposition voices in world locations like the Ukraine, Japan, Middle East, et al. I would give equal time to the side that these people feel are in error. At the end of the show contrary to the usual format of prevailing productions, I would offer my two cents, whatever that is worth.
Today, I offer you, dear reader, a voice that is not well known, but shares my concern about the direction of the US economy, energy and the environment.
Peak Prosperity.com
is a website founded by Chris Martenson. He is a former biochemical scientist. He has written a book called Crash Course. His real worries center on debt creation by the Federal Reserve which has been growing at a plus 9% over the last twenty years, while our economy reflected in GDP has only averaged between 2% to 3% during the same period or triple which is unsustainable. He sees a financial crisis. He also fears that the global community is following our model and the effects on energy and the environment is also unsustainable. Unlike myself, he does not talk about the individual or labor within the economy, but he offers ideas to help the individual if there is a disruption within our society where water, energy and food could suffer from this disturbance. If you are interested, you can go to his website. Now, I will include some tidbits which fall under indicators like the stock market declining over 4% the past week.
Middle Class Jobs
You can file this under disappearing jobs to which our society is experiencing.
No one has given a definite description as to what entails being in the middle class, however economist agree that it is someone that falls within the following wage scale of $13.84 to $21.13 an hour, qualifies.
1)  Mechanical drafters average annual salary of $50k and are declining at a 5% rate.
2)  Insurance appraisers average $58k and are losing jobs at 5%.
3)  Insurance underwriter average $62k and declining at 6.5%.
4)  Mail clerk and mail machine operator, not including Post Office average $26.9k and down 8.8%.
5)  Prep tech average $37k and falling at a 12.9% rate.
6)  Telephone operator average $32k and declining at 13%.
7)  Switchboard operator average $25k and also down 13%.
8)  Reporters and correspondents average $35k and declining at 13.8%.
9)  Reservation transportation average $32k and down at 14%.
10)Embalmers average $42k and dying like their job to the tune of 15%.
11)Door-to-door workers average $21k and falling 15%.
12)Computer operator average $38k and suffering at 17%.
13)Postmaster and mail superintendents average $63k and ouch! down 24%.
14)Data entry key-er average $28k and down 24.6%.
15)Word processors and typists average $35k and disappearing at a 25% clip.
In the news...
Now, add to the above the following news that Intel is laying off  5% of its workforce or 5k jobs. Hewlett-Packard is cutting 34k jobs or 11%. In addition, J.C.Penny is closing 33 stores and Macy's plans to also close some of its locations. In a previous piece I warned about Game Stop. They are also closing stores. While you digest that, add this for desert.
Hacking
Target and Neiman-Marcus and that adds up to a correction.
Liars and Crooks: the media for reporting that Congress agreed to fund the government and that there will not be a debt crisis in 2014. The issue has only been forestalled not concluded.

1964 US...2014 Global...L&C

US society was rocking again in 1964. It was reminded in 1963 that aside from prosperity, the US had a violent streak. The Beatles awoke the nation's youth and to the dismay of their parents, the older generation and the status quo, they rallied around the Fab Four. It was not the only visual rebellious act. In a more serious venue, young college students were becoming aware of the abuses to black people within the nation, especially in the South. There were stories on marches, protests, murders, riots and sit-ins continually on the six o'clock news.
TV had become more than entertainment. It brought the issues of the nation into our living rooms and bedrooms. TV helped Kennedy beat Nixon. It scared us all with the October Crisis. We all attended the president's funeral in 1963 through our black&white tubes. Our living standard was rising, but we became aware that the field was not level. The status quo would solve unemployment with deployment to Vietnam. They gave fertilizer to the seed of discontent. Only today, looking back do we realize how neither political party can be trusted to follow the dogma of Jefferson, " to promote the general welfare."
Change
There was a dull quiet throughout the nation until the Beatles landed at JFK in February of 1964. TV showed more than screaming girls for them. It showed the signs of change. In a continual drumbeat throughout the year, television news replayed one disturbance after another.
There are too many instances to repeat here, however after the murder of three young men in Mississippi, one black leader voiced these words, "I'm tired of going to funerals! I'm tired of it! You've got to stand up!" The decade's movement started with civil rights and ended with war protests. The economics weren't felt until inflation hit which led to a depression in the 1970s.
Today
Now, flash forward! Instead of TV, we got Smart phones, IPADs, and the Internet. The global community has economically improved, however the sins of their existence is catching up to them. If you look at the picture that I am writing about, you can connect the dot of protests, demonstrations and revolution. This atmosphere is not conducive for economic growth. At the moment, the overall effects of the various outbreaks cannot be totaled or viewed as one, which limits the impact. In addition, central banks are flooding the world with cheap money, which at present masks the economic situation. However, this will result in inflation down the road.
The world has caught up with the thinking and feeling that flowed in the US in 1964. It is not just me that sees things like this as cycles. Whether you have heard of the famous Russian economist, Nikolai Kondratiev, who developed his theory of waves or cycles in western capitalism at the turn of the century in the early 1900s to Harry Dent today, the concept has many followers and just as many disbelievers. Dent specializes in cycles, centering around demographics. He sees the West as old, which it is and emerging nation-states as young, which they are. He says there is a world vibe that grows every 200-250 years. During this period, revolution prevails. When you look at our own revolution in 1776, followed by the French Revolution and then, the rebellions which led to the modern states of Italy, Germany, Mexico, South America and more, how can one not see these cycles again? Technology is fostering this cycle in the global community just as the technology of TV helped drive it in 1964. If you say coincidence, the following are an awful lot of co-incidents, including the time line for this cycle.
Protests
The following nations had demonstrations that closed the nation, and by the way, these are on-going affairs that are still in progress. They are not going away like the snow by rain.
Thailand, Malaysia, Ukraine, Greece, Spain, Bangladesh, Chechnya, Russia, Zimbabwe, France and Yemen.
The following nations took their protests into rebellion: Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Syria, Congo and South Sudan.
Then, there are these other nations that are dealing with various problems from economic, energy, inflation and immigration.
China has protests on jobs and inflation.
Japan has protests on nuclear energy, jobs and inflation.
Australia just passed laws centering on limiting immigration due to jobs and culture.
Germany opened their borders in a limited fashion, but face national protest to this act.
India has problems with jobs and inflation and religious issues.
Ukraine just passed laws limiting protests like OWS. You can almost bet that this will escalate.
Then, there is the problem of refugees because there are civil wars, internecine wars and our-right wars like in Afghanistan. Poorer nations have been flooded with people fleeing the terrors of war. The following nations need help or new problems will arise due to the logistics of refugees and providing for them. Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, Somalia, Burundi, Rwanda, Pakistan and Uganda. Even larger nations like Italy, Germany, UK and US feel the impact of immigration at a time when jobs are scare.
The debate over cycles will continue, but the message of 1964 has arisen in emerging nations. Not being in one of those states, one cannot feel the impact in their society. In any event, I'm sure the following words will circulate, "I'm tired of going to funerals! I'm tired of it! You've got to stand up!"
Liars & Crooks: This week goes to West Virginia. They had a serious chemical leak that poisoned the drinking water in nine counties. The company which caused the problem, was purchased recently. At the time the seller told the buyer of the potential problem. Nothing was done. Why, you ask? Because the money influence in the state watered down the safety regulations under the old slogan, " that they were not necessary, cost too much and will result in the loss of jobs." You can always find a job, but you are only given one life. For those who died or became sick, understand this: Dupont and other influential companies got the state legislature to change and weaken safety laws . This storage facility had not been check since 1991 because the new law said it didn't have to. By the way this is the third leak in the last five years, not to mention all the mine collapses in this coal rich state.

Art Pope: Modern Face of Aristocracy...L&C

In the battle between the blue and red states for control of the US government, a new poster child, Art Pope is providing the blueprint for far-right supremacy. This man is at the right-end of the extreme right line. He believes only in his viewpoint which helps to explain the lack of compromise within the framework of our present government.
Right-wing activists are pushing for people who will enact laws that are changing the face of the state. This has happened in Wisconsin, and now, with Art Pope in North Carolina, it moves up a few notches. Most right-wing policies center on tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy. Many, but not all, want vouchers for private schools. They all want to cut unemployment benefits, limit Medicaid and roll back electoral reforms, including voting rights.
There are other changes that the far-right would like to see, such as: to try 13-year old as adults, end collective bargaining(happened in Wisconsin),end public funding for political office, especially for judges and cutting in education from pre-K all the way to higher education.
Bottom line: Everything for the status quo and nothing for the working class citizens.
North Carolina
is the victorious example for the Republican Party as demonstrated by the influence of one, Art Pope. He is setting the table for others like the Koch brothers and et.al. wealthy citizens to establish rule within our government.
The script offers a frightening glimpse of how power and money might direct American politics for years. In a nutshell: he with the gold, rules.
In 2000 Art Pope realized that the Census provided strong info because it showed income, employment or unemployment, voting registration within districts. He also wanted to purge fellow Republicans who sometimes voted moderately. By studying voting districts he poured money into campaigns where the outcome would be close because of the voting make-up. In 19 voting districts, Pope backed 17 winners. There were other events which helped him to win like a Democrat who committed fraud and the Supreme Court in approving "Citizen United." This verdict allows outside money for a candidate and Pope has a lot of money. This is untraceable dollars, sometimes called,"dark money." It has no limit and it buys TV, radio, websites and publications. This allows Pope to get his message out over and over again. Repetition for effect. In my unpublished work I remind the readers of the influence of TV because it is so ingrained within our culture. Pope knows this and he showed how media influence could determine political outcomes. Since our culture is in sound bytes, all he had to say is so-and-so(Democrat)is costing us higher taxes. That Democrat is spending wastefully. Their candidate is costing us JOBS. No depth. No facts. Just repeat the message over and over again. His results should scare all of us.
Here is what Pope and Republicans mean when they say tax cuts. Someone making $250K in N.C. pays the same tax as someone making $25K. This state example is a deeper version of the Bush Tax Cuts which gives tax cuts of 75% to those in the top 5% of income.
Corporations pay lower tax bills than they did in 1978. No wonder they love Art Pope.
He also is opposed to public financing of judges. Without the funding lawyers would contribute to the same judge who would be making a decision in that lawyers future court case. Definitely a conflict of interest and Pope wants a sure thing, irregardless what is does to our society as a whole.
At the moment the government of North Carolina is veto-proof. Its state legislature can over-ride a governor veto. Glad I don't live in Tar Heel country.
Now, imagine the US being governed in the future with the above guidelines? One class of people for the same class of people of the same class of people. Welcome the Aristocracy.
Liars and Crooks: goes to Boeing for putting a gun to its employees by stating, "if you don't vote to stop pension funding by the company, the company will move its future work to a non-union state." But, it's your choice. It's your vote. ....Boeing won! Pensions will be off their books in 2016 and moved to self supporting 401Ks.

Economic Forecast 2014

As there is always two sides to a story, the US economy will be affected by either the continuation of all the stimulus to a full recovery and, with events in the global community enacting similar ideas or an event could alter both economic projections. I have two indicators that could trigger an event. Nevertheless, the "free trade" powers have finally reached a transitional point in both the US economy and the global sector where their influence and policies are the dominant aspect as to whether our nation sees growth, and or, the same scenario for the global nations.
I see 2014 as the first time when discussing economies of scale that distinct world regions and trade alliances will be distinguished as opposed to the normal mentioning of the individual nation influence. This is part of the free trade powers plan. As they add layers upon layers to mask individual economies, they will slowly evaporate sovereign identity just like central bankers have eroded the influence of gold, deficit spending and balanced budgets.
If I had to label the make-up, I would describe it as follows: North America(US, Canada & Mexico), South America & Central America(all nations except Brazil which is a BRIC member), ECU and UK, Asian Rim, which will be broken into two parts:China and its new trading partners whose nations will have a carryover because of the two powerful economies of Japan and South Korea. In addition, the Arab Emirates will have a carryover in OPEC, BRIC members, new African associations except South Africa which will join the BRIC and Australia will have a major influence on China. Russia will open pipelines to the East and seek to grow its economy with its old satellite members.
The second trend that I see is the establishment of debt as king. Central bankers will continue to oppose gold and balanced budgets. They will offer plans centered around debt guidelines as the new paragon for running an economy. While this policy will never be stated, balanced budgets for governments will be out with debt guidelines that fall within a specific range will be the new normal. This will hide what I've been saying for years that the US does not have a real economy, but by the use of debt, stimulates enough to maintain the status quo. However, demographics will begin to under mind this policy. In fact, recent civil unrest will grow from "flash mobs, and knockout gangs" to looting and riots, due mainly to youth unemployment. I do not want to get into this at the moment, but continue with the influence of central bankers.
At the moment the US, Japan and Greece have debt-to-GDP ratios that surpass safe economic levels with the US over 100%, Japan over 250% and Greece at 156%. Funny thing about Greece, they were the only EU member to lower their debt ratio as all the other members grew their economies with debt. They forget that debt must be repaid which will bring gold back in fashion at a later date.
Predictions
by central bankers and world institutions state that the US and world economies will grow in 2014. Have they ever predicted a recession? Don't be silly, of course not!
My Forecast
as stated above, I see two possible red flags that could alter the world economies. The first is the continuation of the currency wars with individual nations seeking to devalue to gain market share which will help their domestic economy. This flight toward the bottom as already caused distress in world trade, especially to Brazil and India. They face more currency disruptions due to the falling in their national currency reserves.
The other big danger is rising interest rates. Both of these indicators are easy to follow because the info is published. Use the ten year bond on US treasuries as a starting point. If they continue to rise and surpass 3.5%, domestic markets will suffer with a ripple effect to the global community. Housing, dear reader, is central to every domestic economy. In addition, real estate bubbles could pop in Finland, Netherlands, China and Australia. Do I have to remind you that the current interest rates are below normal and the present cost of money is in a deviant mode. Jobs are still needed in every economy irregardless of what is reported about the health of any particular nation.
There are many other little problems that could develop out of control like the Arab Spring. After central banks, the military complex is the most dangerous entity that could alter the future.
In a related theme to flare-ups, the search for natural resources will continue, but not yet in a dangerous zone. World oil supplies are abundant with the notable addition of US supply.
Alternative energy will still be more rhetoric than fact. Natural gas will have a greater effect, especially in manufacturing, transportation and production of electricity. Nuclear will try to resurface with a big push in Japan and emerging nations.
Health
Obamacare will be front and center. It will cause the US debt to explode.
The central meme of this forecast is that the confluence point in the US economy and the global community has been reached and whether central bankers can continue to mask problems with debt as more revenues will be needed to cover past and present shortfalls.
In the US the first crack will appear in retail because demographics will show falling revenues. This will cause companies to close stores, cut jobs. They will continue to hide these points by buying back stock, but time will tell and the market will suffer.
Ghetto Nation
 closing of stores will have a domino effect. This will take time, but once it starts, the ending is predetermined. The loss of anchor stores to malls and shopping centers will lead to business foreclosures. Many areas will relive the early 60s and 70s when the first national haircut took place with the ramifications to numerous to mention here. If this occurs we will reenter a recession, however if stagflation appears, the picture turns ugly with a depression. At the moment this is not on the horizon, but central bankers have no answer for demographics. If there are no buyers, prices fall. We are already in a disinflation environment which is only hidden due to stimulus. Like I said, we are at the confluence point . We could grow or fail to grow depending on the two main danger aspects.