"The market is irrational and it can stay that way longer than you can stay solvent" is an old Wall Street proverb.
That wisdom is so relevant under today's market euphoria. The market seems to hit new record highs on a daily basis since the Trump upset election win. This high tide has lifted all boats, but I'm here to warn you that shippers have been caught on a sandy bottom for three years running. Yet, shippers have enjoyed gains of parabolic proportions. Dry Ships(DRYS) is up 1500%. How about Paragon Shipping(PRGN)? It is up 49% in two days. Throw a dart at a shipping company and see profits that will cover all your holiday desires.
No Free Lunch
is another expression and it applies doubly to shippers. Let's take a closer look.
$BDI
is the symbol for the Baltic Dry Shipping Index. It too has jumped off the charts. The day before the election it stood at 800. It now floats at 1257 and rising. Now, in the fourteen or so days after the election, did all shipping companies receive a 50% order increase? By the way, this index hit a low back in February of 290. I can safely say that they didn't have to call-in help to answer the phone orders. Now, I'll answer the question. No. Let me say this again, but even louder. NO!
Shippers face a double whammy. There are too many boats facing declining orders as global trade has slowed. The fifty day moving average for the index is 620 and the 200-day is 925. So, do you want to pay 33% more than the moving average? There is strong resistance at 1480 because the tide has already left the harbor.
What about individual issues, you ask?
How about Dry Ships? This rusting carrier had it stock jump(see above) since the election. It is only paint covering the rust. This company specializes in stock splits or I should say reverse stock splits. Back in October of 2014, it did one and its stock went to $7,500. per share. Then, it went straight down to $3.84 just last month. But paint covers many faults and with another 15 to 1 reverse split, the stock went over $100 last week. If you bought this election hype, get a tin cup fast. You're going to need it as the stock fell to $11.81 on Friday. This carrier is not alone as there are many other examples like Paragon Shipping(PRGN - see above)which climbed to $2.61 a share. There are rumors that the board has already approved a bankruptcy plan. The stock was $45. a share back in July 2015. How about Sino-Global Shipping? It had gains of 553% two weeks ago and another 68% last week. By the way, Sino-Global is one of three members in an Asian trade alliance which lost one member - Hanjin Shipping. It entered bankruptcy back in June.
Consider This:
You ordered something. Hanjin ships it. The court now has jurisdiction. You can't unload. Due to the failure of your order, you go bust. You call a lawyer. He just got back from his vacation cruise. He gets in the court line to file your lien along with thousands of other lawyers for a claim against a company that already couldn't meet its normal obligations and now, faces this.
Marianas Trench
is the deepest part of the Pacific Ocean floor and if you buy into this shipping frenzy, this is how deep your stock could fall. Another pearl of wisdom, "A sucker is born every minute." Caveat emptor!
Wednesday, November 23, 2016
Wednesday, November 16, 2016
Dennis Gartman Steps In Number Two
Last week in Kitco News, Mr. Gartman wrote a piece on his perspective of the Trump election win. He says, "Trump's potential tariffs would be massively deflationary." He compares it to the disastrous tariff bill in 1930. How wrong can one be? Not only is he way off base about tariffs, but he sides with the wrong reasons that made the Great Depression. He adds his opinion that protectionism caused the depression when it was the central bankers to which the status quo love. The Federal Reserve misdirects like a magician. They used their influence along with a partnership of the elites to fend off responsibility for the crash. They are the real culprit for the lost economic decade.
The Smoot - Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 added tariffs, but mostly in the agricultural industry. The global community retaliated with their own protectionist measures which caused a slump in world trade. With that said, the real death blow was caused by two central bankers doing their market manipulations. Their actions crushed the bond and currency markets.
In the US, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates which hurt investment and added expenses to all companies. Their timing could not have been worse. By strengthening the dollar, we lost market share in exports. In England, the British closed the gold standard. This action caused chaos in international currencies. These two actions were way more devastating than the tariff bill, but the power to write history whitewashes the central bankers mistakes.
Three Reasons Gartman Is Wrong
First off, tariffs cause imports to be priced higher. This hurts our consumers who lack choice. Trump is providing a cushion for domestic producers who can provide the consumer with a choice. If the consumer can buy a US product for the same price as an import, they will buy American. There will be a period of higher inflation, but prices will stabilize back to the law of supply and demand. As for the global community retaliating, let them. We only export 14% and it is items that will be purchased anyway. We sell food. You buy if you are hungry. We sell tech because we invented it. The global community has no choice. We can even stop outsourcing by making domestic production more feasible. We were once a self-reliant nation. We can do it again.
Secondly, producers will need workers to make the products that we use to make. This means jobs with better wages and our GDP will rise. We stop our decline in our standard of living. This provides more local and state revenues to meet long put off projects. This creates more jobs and services.
Finally, our national deficits shrink because those taxes on imports are revenues for our government. What was once a negative with money flowing out of the country becomes a positive with money flowing into our nation.
Dennis is out of touch. He forgot the words of wisdom from Rodney Dangerfield who said, "Always look out for number one, but don't step in number two."
The Smoot - Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 added tariffs, but mostly in the agricultural industry. The global community retaliated with their own protectionist measures which caused a slump in world trade. With that said, the real death blow was caused by two central bankers doing their market manipulations. Their actions crushed the bond and currency markets.
In the US, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates which hurt investment and added expenses to all companies. Their timing could not have been worse. By strengthening the dollar, we lost market share in exports. In England, the British closed the gold standard. This action caused chaos in international currencies. These two actions were way more devastating than the tariff bill, but the power to write history whitewashes the central bankers mistakes.
Three Reasons Gartman Is Wrong
First off, tariffs cause imports to be priced higher. This hurts our consumers who lack choice. Trump is providing a cushion for domestic producers who can provide the consumer with a choice. If the consumer can buy a US product for the same price as an import, they will buy American. There will be a period of higher inflation, but prices will stabilize back to the law of supply and demand. As for the global community retaliating, let them. We only export 14% and it is items that will be purchased anyway. We sell food. You buy if you are hungry. We sell tech because we invented it. The global community has no choice. We can even stop outsourcing by making domestic production more feasible. We were once a self-reliant nation. We can do it again.
Secondly, producers will need workers to make the products that we use to make. This means jobs with better wages and our GDP will rise. We stop our decline in our standard of living. This provides more local and state revenues to meet long put off projects. This creates more jobs and services.
Finally, our national deficits shrink because those taxes on imports are revenues for our government. What was once a negative with money flowing out of the country becomes a positive with money flowing into our nation.
Dennis is out of touch. He forgot the words of wisdom from Rodney Dangerfield who said, "Always look out for number one, but don't step in number two."
Wednesday, November 9, 2016
Trucking
- "Truckin' got my chips cashed in, keep truckin' like the do-dah man
Together, more or less in line, just keep truckin' on..."
- Jerry Garcia and the Grateful dead
Contrary to the many meanings of a word in our American lexicon and culture, the title actually refers to its basic concept, over-the-road haulers. With the election the winner needs to look at the recent declines in long distance trucking and what that forecasts for our economy.
Trucking moves 70% of our goods. This aspect is broadcasted loud and clear on late night television in almost every city and state, seeking students for their driving schools with the promise of a good paying job.
Bad News
According to Act Research big outfits like Werner and Swift are pulling drivers off the road because the expected orders in their forecast has not materialized. In fact, heavy duty truck orders have declined by 46% to 13,900 units. This aspect is revealed in the 9,000 manufacturing jobs that were lost in October. Many in that number were in transportation equipment, a staple for trucking in correlation to manufacturing.
Cummins
The CEO, Thomas Linebarger gave as a reason for his lower guidance when he said, "We're hearing from lots and lots of Fleets that while they're a little nervous on business - They're delaying purchases."
If this large and important segment in our economy has more declines the conclusion is sadly simple. There will be layoffs in retail and when we already know that our malls and shopping centers are under duress, this does not bode well for our future economy.
Together, more or less in line, just keep truckin' on..."
- Jerry Garcia and the Grateful dead
Contrary to the many meanings of a word in our American lexicon and culture, the title actually refers to its basic concept, over-the-road haulers. With the election the winner needs to look at the recent declines in long distance trucking and what that forecasts for our economy.
Trucking moves 70% of our goods. This aspect is broadcasted loud and clear on late night television in almost every city and state, seeking students for their driving schools with the promise of a good paying job.
Bad News
According to Act Research big outfits like Werner and Swift are pulling drivers off the road because the expected orders in their forecast has not materialized. In fact, heavy duty truck orders have declined by 46% to 13,900 units. This aspect is revealed in the 9,000 manufacturing jobs that were lost in October. Many in that number were in transportation equipment, a staple for trucking in correlation to manufacturing.
Cummins
The CEO, Thomas Linebarger gave as a reason for his lower guidance when he said, "We're hearing from lots and lots of Fleets that while they're a little nervous on business - They're delaying purchases."
If this large and important segment in our economy has more declines the conclusion is sadly simple. There will be layoffs in retail and when we already know that our malls and shopping centers are under duress, this does not bode well for our future economy.
Wednesday, November 2, 2016
"On The Road Again...Turn The Page"
I had my tunes on for energy, reflection and more as I begun a 2,600 mile transplant across our beautiful and large nation. Flying is quicker, more convenient and cheaper, but you can't bring your TV, bed and stuff on the plane. In addition, you can't get a pulse of the country from 30,000 plus feet. From the ground you can see the differences in towns, cities and states. Pictures tell a story and in the length of my trip, I have a catalogue, full to the brim along with enough caffeine to talk about it in this blog.
One thing I came to realize is that some states do not offer rest stops that are so common along the I-95 east coast. When this highway enters Florida, you are greeted with a lovely building with many perks for the traveler along with a park-like area to walk the pet. Once you pass the Mississippi, you will be hard pressed to find such amenities. Could be cut-backs in budgets?
You will also have difficulty in navigating the interstates. The even number interstates go east and west while the odd numbers go north and south. They are in fairly good condition. However, if you are traversing in a northwest route or a slicing pattern, these vast highways offer poor connections from even to odd numbered roads.
Then, there are those differences that I mentioned above. Yeah, there are thousands of hotels to rest, clean up and grab a hot meal, but if you are on a budget unlike our federal government, those are options that my wallet can't afford. I like to point out that all the fast food places like McDonald's were doing good business. I rented a truck and although the agent said it would get around 12 miles-per-gallon. It was closer to six. This new found info put a hurt on my finances. Anyway, I figured that I could rough it by using rest areas and eating cold sandwiches.
A New Corruption
Kansas is setting new levels to steal from citizens that even New Jersey would admire. When you travel north along I-35 and enter Kansas, the theft begins. You see, Kansas started a toll road turnpike, but it begins on the same road as I-35. Now, the interstate road system is a federally paid and built network. It is paid by taxes on gasoline in every state. This is why there are no tolls to use it. It seems however, that states have found a loophole either under maintenance or some dated clause to place tolls like for bridges or whatever. Now, back to Kansas. Picture yourself, driving all day as the sun sets in the west. You keep your eyes open for a rest area, but all you see is this new adaptation called, "A parking area." It is nothing more than a side road off the interstate. It has no facilities, no lights and no security. This revelation along with the changing weather has given me a new found respect for long distance truck drivers. They too are on a budget not to mention the need for a restroom after twelve hours of non-stop driving.
Continuing. It is getting dark. I enter Kansas and a moment of joy as another state is crossed off the list. The joy fades fast as you enter a Twilight Zone. Suddenly, along the darkened road, did a sign just say this is the last toll free exit? You have no time to think and no place to stop and check your map to see if you missed an exit or something. You proceed another mile. You enter the toll plaza where there are no workers. It is all automated. No one to help as a machine pushes out a ticket that is based on mile usage. You are trapped. You can't even do a crazy New York thing like trying to turn around across the highway and go back to the last toll free exit and find an alternative route to I-135. You ask yourself, how can they do this as you exit around twelve miles later and $2.25 poorer. This is only the beginning. There are communication breakdowns to follow.
Enter Oklahoma
America is not the biggest country, but crossing Texas sure feels that way. I was happy to exit Kansas, but the Sooner State is even bigger. By the way, there is no chronological order of states, just the events. Oklahoma is very similar to Kansas in the aspect that there are very few, if any, rest areas. After driving another long, non-stop day and seeing lightning flashing in the west, I decided to compromise and rest in a parking area. I knew this region of the nation was called "tornado ally." I tried to imagine how fearful it must be for one of these storms to strike in the middle of the night. Personally, I couldn't live that way. Suddenly, the western lightning reached I-35. Fortunately, at the same time as the rain started, a parking area appeared. I pulled into it. It was crowded with over-the-road haulers, but I found a space on the right side of it. It was on a slope that had a sharp drop, but I was off the highway and very tired. I made a cold sandwich and turned on the radio to the Thursday Night Football game. The rain came hard on the windshield, but it didn't hold my attention. This is good I thought. A sandwich with some water and I found a station with the game.
A Miracle in the Parking Area
Then, a lightning, static sound came over the radio as the whole sky around the interstate turned white from a bolt directly above. I looked to the west and I could see a tower being illuminated by the lightning. The radio went out. A tinge of fear began on my nerves. What could I do if a tornado came? I couldn't even see it. Suddenly, my SUV began to rock from the wind and rain. I put my foot on the brakes, hoping that it would add stability. I looked around. Lightning flashed all around. A freight hauler going south was pushed by the wind into the center meridian. He came to quick stop in the center of the highway. Another driver stopped to offer help, but he waived him away. My car shook more violently and I became fearful that the wind would push it off the slope and destroy my car. I prayed to Notre Dame(Our Lady). The rain stopped, but the wind blew even harder. I looked toward the truck in the meridian. A tow truck arrived along with a police car. I thought that although this state didn't have rest areas, they respond to emergencies very quickly. The red and blue lights of the police car illuminated the sky. I looked toward the tower again, but instead I saw a huge wooden cross hovering in the sky. I rubbed my eyes. I looked around at the other vehicles in the parking area and the truck in the center of the highway. No one did anything out of the ordinary. I looked west again. The cross appeared even closer and now had a shroud draped over the cross. The police lights gave a purple look to the shroud. Mary, God was answering my prayer. Lost in thought and hope, I looked toward the cross again. It was gone as both the wind and rain moved eastward and away from the interstate. Did I see what I saw? Should I try to rest for awhile? What if another storm comes? No, this is the doubt of the devil playing with my head, trying to rationalize my faith. To make it all my imagination. After a few more moments of doubt and indecision, I pushed myself to reenter the highway. About three miles later, a sign read, "Next exit one mile, Stillwater." Yes, it was real. "He lays me beside still waters..."
I didn't have the tune in my collection, but something bought me back to Harry and his great work, "Taxi, 'It was raining hard in Frisco, I needed one more fare to make my night, a lady flagged me down...There was not much more for us to talk about, whatever we had once was gone...you see I was going to learn to fly...she took off for the floodlights and I took off for the sky. I fly so high when I'm stoned...' "
There is not much more to tell of this journey. Wyoming has nice rest areas and Utah is very scenic. I'm safe and happy in my new state and home except I forgot to add that I saw many wind farms off in the distance in Nebraska, Wyoming, Kansas and Oklahoma and also oil wells in Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska and Wyoming as well as the known southern producers and corn fields everywhere and everywhere they grow tall.
One thing I came to realize is that some states do not offer rest stops that are so common along the I-95 east coast. When this highway enters Florida, you are greeted with a lovely building with many perks for the traveler along with a park-like area to walk the pet. Once you pass the Mississippi, you will be hard pressed to find such amenities. Could be cut-backs in budgets?
You will also have difficulty in navigating the interstates. The even number interstates go east and west while the odd numbers go north and south. They are in fairly good condition. However, if you are traversing in a northwest route or a slicing pattern, these vast highways offer poor connections from even to odd numbered roads.
Then, there are those differences that I mentioned above. Yeah, there are thousands of hotels to rest, clean up and grab a hot meal, but if you are on a budget unlike our federal government, those are options that my wallet can't afford. I like to point out that all the fast food places like McDonald's were doing good business. I rented a truck and although the agent said it would get around 12 miles-per-gallon. It was closer to six. This new found info put a hurt on my finances. Anyway, I figured that I could rough it by using rest areas and eating cold sandwiches.
A New Corruption
Kansas is setting new levels to steal from citizens that even New Jersey would admire. When you travel north along I-35 and enter Kansas, the theft begins. You see, Kansas started a toll road turnpike, but it begins on the same road as I-35. Now, the interstate road system is a federally paid and built network. It is paid by taxes on gasoline in every state. This is why there are no tolls to use it. It seems however, that states have found a loophole either under maintenance or some dated clause to place tolls like for bridges or whatever. Now, back to Kansas. Picture yourself, driving all day as the sun sets in the west. You keep your eyes open for a rest area, but all you see is this new adaptation called, "A parking area." It is nothing more than a side road off the interstate. It has no facilities, no lights and no security. This revelation along with the changing weather has given me a new found respect for long distance truck drivers. They too are on a budget not to mention the need for a restroom after twelve hours of non-stop driving.
Continuing. It is getting dark. I enter Kansas and a moment of joy as another state is crossed off the list. The joy fades fast as you enter a Twilight Zone. Suddenly, along the darkened road, did a sign just say this is the last toll free exit? You have no time to think and no place to stop and check your map to see if you missed an exit or something. You proceed another mile. You enter the toll plaza where there are no workers. It is all automated. No one to help as a machine pushes out a ticket that is based on mile usage. You are trapped. You can't even do a crazy New York thing like trying to turn around across the highway and go back to the last toll free exit and find an alternative route to I-135. You ask yourself, how can they do this as you exit around twelve miles later and $2.25 poorer. This is only the beginning. There are communication breakdowns to follow.
Enter Oklahoma
America is not the biggest country, but crossing Texas sure feels that way. I was happy to exit Kansas, but the Sooner State is even bigger. By the way, there is no chronological order of states, just the events. Oklahoma is very similar to Kansas in the aspect that there are very few, if any, rest areas. After driving another long, non-stop day and seeing lightning flashing in the west, I decided to compromise and rest in a parking area. I knew this region of the nation was called "tornado ally." I tried to imagine how fearful it must be for one of these storms to strike in the middle of the night. Personally, I couldn't live that way. Suddenly, the western lightning reached I-35. Fortunately, at the same time as the rain started, a parking area appeared. I pulled into it. It was crowded with over-the-road haulers, but I found a space on the right side of it. It was on a slope that had a sharp drop, but I was off the highway and very tired. I made a cold sandwich and turned on the radio to the Thursday Night Football game. The rain came hard on the windshield, but it didn't hold my attention. This is good I thought. A sandwich with some water and I found a station with the game.
A Miracle in the Parking Area
Then, a lightning, static sound came over the radio as the whole sky around the interstate turned white from a bolt directly above. I looked to the west and I could see a tower being illuminated by the lightning. The radio went out. A tinge of fear began on my nerves. What could I do if a tornado came? I couldn't even see it. Suddenly, my SUV began to rock from the wind and rain. I put my foot on the brakes, hoping that it would add stability. I looked around. Lightning flashed all around. A freight hauler going south was pushed by the wind into the center meridian. He came to quick stop in the center of the highway. Another driver stopped to offer help, but he waived him away. My car shook more violently and I became fearful that the wind would push it off the slope and destroy my car. I prayed to Notre Dame(Our Lady). The rain stopped, but the wind blew even harder. I looked toward the truck in the meridian. A tow truck arrived along with a police car. I thought that although this state didn't have rest areas, they respond to emergencies very quickly. The red and blue lights of the police car illuminated the sky. I looked toward the tower again, but instead I saw a huge wooden cross hovering in the sky. I rubbed my eyes. I looked around at the other vehicles in the parking area and the truck in the center of the highway. No one did anything out of the ordinary. I looked west again. The cross appeared even closer and now had a shroud draped over the cross. The police lights gave a purple look to the shroud. Mary, God was answering my prayer. Lost in thought and hope, I looked toward the cross again. It was gone as both the wind and rain moved eastward and away from the interstate. Did I see what I saw? Should I try to rest for awhile? What if another storm comes? No, this is the doubt of the devil playing with my head, trying to rationalize my faith. To make it all my imagination. After a few more moments of doubt and indecision, I pushed myself to reenter the highway. About three miles later, a sign read, "Next exit one mile, Stillwater." Yes, it was real. "He lays me beside still waters..."
I didn't have the tune in my collection, but something bought me back to Harry and his great work, "Taxi, 'It was raining hard in Frisco, I needed one more fare to make my night, a lady flagged me down...There was not much more for us to talk about, whatever we had once was gone...you see I was going to learn to fly...she took off for the floodlights and I took off for the sky. I fly so high when I'm stoned...' "
There is not much more to tell of this journey. Wyoming has nice rest areas and Utah is very scenic. I'm safe and happy in my new state and home except I forgot to add that I saw many wind farms off in the distance in Nebraska, Wyoming, Kansas and Oklahoma and also oil wells in Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska and Wyoming as well as the known southern producers and corn fields everywhere and everywhere they grow tall.
Wednesday, October 26, 2016
Reflections on the Final Debate
All these modern TV debates usually fail in their purpose because of their root format. Doesn't matter the candidates, the lawyers determine what can or cannot be considered in the program. Contrary to Bob Schieffer, who appeared with the CBS panel after the debate and who declared, "The debates always provide a full measure of the candidate." I disagree with that in-part because the format is known and the candidates practice with think tanks prior to the so-called debate. With that said, this is what I heard and I offer my beliefs, whether they coincide with the candidates or not.
The moderator was Chris Wallace of Fox News which has a biased history of being pro-Republican and conservative. He was very fair. CBS broadcasted the event and its panel had the last word. They were very biased against Trump and pro-Clinton.
The first question centered on the Supreme Court and appointing of judges.
Neither admitted that our court system is rigged, but demonstrated by the fact that both candidates would nominate different viewpoint judges. Jefferson and Madison, the two architects of the constitution were appalled that the Supreme Court Judge made this third leg in our so-called checks and balance system, a dictatorship. At the time, our newly elected government feared citizen distrust of our government to function if this historic decision in Marbury v. Madison became a national debate. Chief Justice John Marshall made the court more powerful than the legislative or executive branch. This decision gave the court the final word in the land. It takes an amendment to override the court which is both time consuming and a difficult, lengthy process. In my unpublished work, I have a democratic solution to our dilemma.
The next question concerned immigration. It veered off to other aspects.
Donald reminded everyone that Hillary voted for a wall in the past. He wants immigration limits with the legal entry into our nation. Hillary is for open borders. Nothing like pandering to the Latino vote.
In addition, Donald wants our allies to help pay for our military. I agree. They get a free ride on defense and we suffer all the costs. Hillary maintains the status quo and questions Russian intentions in our voting and election. Sadly, the only place where Russia gets some respect in the US is the TV show, The Big Bang Theory. The comedy reminds us of our space partnership with Russia through humor. I agree with Donald that we don't know for sure who is behind the leaks and hacking.
The next question was on energy. It veered off to the economy.
Hillary wants to raise the minimum wage and spend on alternative energy to stimulate the economy. This sounds good. How come when she was in the Obama administration, this aspect could have been undertaken? She says she will pay for this program by taxing the wealthy. She reminded everyone that Obama inherited a mess and cut the deficit in half. Total BS! The deficit doubled under Obama. It approaches $20 trillion. That works out to around $33,000 per second. Heaven help us.
Donald didn't argue over that point, but insisted that he would renegotiate trade agreements like NAFTA. He reminded everyone that he created jobs with his company. He is proud of that and he will make America great for everyone. This is the only issue that I totally agree and that I am behind.
The next subject was women and abuse.
Hillary reminded everyone that more than one woman accused Donald of abuse in the past. Donald says, "These are all lies!"
Donald switched to the abuse of the Clinton Foundation. It takes money like for Haiti Relief, but the money only goes to people and companies connected to the Clinton's. Hillary says that 90% of money is given out. Trump says, "His charities give out 100%."
At that point Hillary got nervous and moved to Trump's tax returns. Trump countered with Wall St. ads that are for Clinton. This implies that she is bought and paid for by the institutions. The conversation moved to voting and Trump fears that the vote is rigged. Hillary says, "Anything that goes against Donald, the Donald says is rigged." The moderator asked if Trump would recognize the final vote. He declined to answer which can be induced to believe that he would not accept the result.
Iraq and the offensive for Mosul followed.
Donald reminded everyone that we once liberated Mosul and ISIS grew under the Clinton and Obama watch. Hillary says, "She won't put US forces on the ground." Donald says, "All these failures have benefited Iran." The topic expanded to refugees. Hillary says, "We'll admit vetted refugees." Donald says, If she is elected, this will be a disaster." Both candidates will be pro-military which will explode the deficit. The only worse scenario was if Marco Rubio was the presidential nominee. He is a total warmonger. The only candidate that would give peace a chance was Bernie Sanders.
The economy was next.
The moderator said experts checked both candidates. Hillary would add our debt to 86% of GDP. Donald would add 100% debt to GDP. The moderator pointed out that 60% of debt goes to entitlements and what each would do?
Hillary said no cuts and they can be maintained by taxing the wealthy. I agree even though by taxing you expand the government and it is already too large. However, the rich have been getting a free ride for way too long. Donald says we first must overturn Obamacare and start anew. He also wants another tax cut.
Final question, "Why each should be president?"
Hillary says, "She will unite the nation." Donald says, "He will make America great again, but if you vote Hillary we get more Obama policies."
After the so-called debate in which no one mentioned our failing school system, that one person in six collects food stamps and soon one-fourth of the nation will be aged and also collecting both social security and Medicare. A nation that only has 12% in manufacturing and that number decreases every year. A nation that leads the world in inventions like solar and the internet, but receives very little economic benefits due to globalization and the lie of free trade. Enter the CBS panel.
They centered their conversation on Trump's refusal to acknowledge the election results and his claim that things are rigged. As stated above, Bob Schieffer throws this at Trump as this is the real man inside. Nancy Cordes exposed her Latin preference. Even Major Garrett joined to say that Trump's voting claim will be the deal breaker. Norah O'Donnell stayed neutral, but John Dickerson showed his bias toward Hillary and against Trump by seconding the voting claim. At least, that is how I heard and saw it.
I remind all readers that the vote is really a minority result because more would-be voters have declared themselves Independent rather than either Democrats or Republicans. The bottom line: there will be more non-voters in this election that what the winner tallies. When you add the losing tally along with the non-voters, we will have a very disruptive nation for the next four years.
The moderator was Chris Wallace of Fox News which has a biased history of being pro-Republican and conservative. He was very fair. CBS broadcasted the event and its panel had the last word. They were very biased against Trump and pro-Clinton.
The first question centered on the Supreme Court and appointing of judges.
Neither admitted that our court system is rigged, but demonstrated by the fact that both candidates would nominate different viewpoint judges. Jefferson and Madison, the two architects of the constitution were appalled that the Supreme Court Judge made this third leg in our so-called checks and balance system, a dictatorship. At the time, our newly elected government feared citizen distrust of our government to function if this historic decision in Marbury v. Madison became a national debate. Chief Justice John Marshall made the court more powerful than the legislative or executive branch. This decision gave the court the final word in the land. It takes an amendment to override the court which is both time consuming and a difficult, lengthy process. In my unpublished work, I have a democratic solution to our dilemma.
The next question concerned immigration. It veered off to other aspects.
Donald reminded everyone that Hillary voted for a wall in the past. He wants immigration limits with the legal entry into our nation. Hillary is for open borders. Nothing like pandering to the Latino vote.
In addition, Donald wants our allies to help pay for our military. I agree. They get a free ride on defense and we suffer all the costs. Hillary maintains the status quo and questions Russian intentions in our voting and election. Sadly, the only place where Russia gets some respect in the US is the TV show, The Big Bang Theory. The comedy reminds us of our space partnership with Russia through humor. I agree with Donald that we don't know for sure who is behind the leaks and hacking.
The next question was on energy. It veered off to the economy.
Hillary wants to raise the minimum wage and spend on alternative energy to stimulate the economy. This sounds good. How come when she was in the Obama administration, this aspect could have been undertaken? She says she will pay for this program by taxing the wealthy. She reminded everyone that Obama inherited a mess and cut the deficit in half. Total BS! The deficit doubled under Obama. It approaches $20 trillion. That works out to around $33,000 per second. Heaven help us.
Donald didn't argue over that point, but insisted that he would renegotiate trade agreements like NAFTA. He reminded everyone that he created jobs with his company. He is proud of that and he will make America great for everyone. This is the only issue that I totally agree and that I am behind.
The next subject was women and abuse.
Hillary reminded everyone that more than one woman accused Donald of abuse in the past. Donald says, "These are all lies!"
Donald switched to the abuse of the Clinton Foundation. It takes money like for Haiti Relief, but the money only goes to people and companies connected to the Clinton's. Hillary says that 90% of money is given out. Trump says, "His charities give out 100%."
At that point Hillary got nervous and moved to Trump's tax returns. Trump countered with Wall St. ads that are for Clinton. This implies that she is bought and paid for by the institutions. The conversation moved to voting and Trump fears that the vote is rigged. Hillary says, "Anything that goes against Donald, the Donald says is rigged." The moderator asked if Trump would recognize the final vote. He declined to answer which can be induced to believe that he would not accept the result.
Iraq and the offensive for Mosul followed.
Donald reminded everyone that we once liberated Mosul and ISIS grew under the Clinton and Obama watch. Hillary says, "She won't put US forces on the ground." Donald says, "All these failures have benefited Iran." The topic expanded to refugees. Hillary says, "We'll admit vetted refugees." Donald says, If she is elected, this will be a disaster." Both candidates will be pro-military which will explode the deficit. The only worse scenario was if Marco Rubio was the presidential nominee. He is a total warmonger. The only candidate that would give peace a chance was Bernie Sanders.
The economy was next.
The moderator said experts checked both candidates. Hillary would add our debt to 86% of GDP. Donald would add 100% debt to GDP. The moderator pointed out that 60% of debt goes to entitlements and what each would do?
Hillary said no cuts and they can be maintained by taxing the wealthy. I agree even though by taxing you expand the government and it is already too large. However, the rich have been getting a free ride for way too long. Donald says we first must overturn Obamacare and start anew. He also wants another tax cut.
Final question, "Why each should be president?"
Hillary says, "She will unite the nation." Donald says, "He will make America great again, but if you vote Hillary we get more Obama policies."
After the so-called debate in which no one mentioned our failing school system, that one person in six collects food stamps and soon one-fourth of the nation will be aged and also collecting both social security and Medicare. A nation that only has 12% in manufacturing and that number decreases every year. A nation that leads the world in inventions like solar and the internet, but receives very little economic benefits due to globalization and the lie of free trade. Enter the CBS panel.
They centered their conversation on Trump's refusal to acknowledge the election results and his claim that things are rigged. As stated above, Bob Schieffer throws this at Trump as this is the real man inside. Nancy Cordes exposed her Latin preference. Even Major Garrett joined to say that Trump's voting claim will be the deal breaker. Norah O'Donnell stayed neutral, but John Dickerson showed his bias toward Hillary and against Trump by seconding the voting claim. At least, that is how I heard and saw it.
I remind all readers that the vote is really a minority result because more would-be voters have declared themselves Independent rather than either Democrats or Republicans. The bottom line: there will be more non-voters in this election that what the winner tallies. When you add the losing tally along with the non-voters, we will have a very disruptive nation for the next four years.
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
Housing 911 in Our Cities
When you mention those three numbers, nothing good comes to mind. Sadly, there are more ways and reasons to die. The one that I'm referring too is a slow process that has already begun.
At present there are eleven major US cities whereby nine have more renters than home ownership.
1)Miami with 65% renters.
2)New York has 64%
3)Boston 60%
4)San Fran with 51%
5)Houston & DC with 54%
7)Dallas 53%
8)Chicago 52%
9)Atlanta 49%
There is another large grouping with Philadelphia on top with 44% and onward or downward?
Why?
Many reasons, but on top, cost. Economists talked about "white flight" back in the 70s. This is so typical of shills. They post half truths to cover the full truth. It is true that whites moved to avoid blacks, but central to that fear would be the perception that it would lead to a loss of value in their present home, not to mention crime. At the same time this same class could get a new home in the suburbs with lower taxes and gas was cheap. Many black families suffered from the first US economic haircut - the loss of small manufacturing jobs Drugs and booze came as medicine for their depression. We know that that is no help. This was the whole picture. The suburbs was a no brainer!
Today, gas is high along with taxes in the burbs while cities offer services, no commute with transportation to work. Wait! You say. Gas is now cheap. Wrong Kimosabe! Gas in the 70s was .61 cents a gallon. Now, even with the lower price, it is still 4x as expensive. It is not cheap and car insurance, maintenance and drive time must all be factored into the equation.
With that said, cities are also desperate for revenues to pay for those services as well as infrastructure, pension plans and other costs. Do I have to remind you that it cost $14. one way over a bridge in New York or under a tunnel? As cities raise taxes, especially on businesses, they face another "flight" to a tax haven state or location where taxes are traded for jobs. This flight has begun and outsourcing will only make it worse. The renters will follow. This will leave city budgets with a vacuum bigger than any sinkhole on record. A push for seniors will not work as the southern warm belt already has their grandkids. This is a slow death that nine of eleven US cities face. It will be a sad process, but because of the Fed's destruction of our currency which destroys our living standard, our cities are facing a slow death not to mention our government wasting all our lives and resources to police the world. One solution is to end external conflicts and use needed funds at home. Our citizens need to know that all lives matter. Give Peace A Chance!
P.S. I have not posted because I have undertaken a long distance move. I had no internet nor time. Little by little I'm returning to form. Your patience is appreciated. Thank you, dear reader.
At present there are eleven major US cities whereby nine have more renters than home ownership.
1)Miami with 65% renters.
2)New York has 64%
3)Boston 60%
4)San Fran with 51%
5)Houston & DC with 54%
7)Dallas 53%
8)Chicago 52%
9)Atlanta 49%
There is another large grouping with Philadelphia on top with 44% and onward or downward?
Why?
Many reasons, but on top, cost. Economists talked about "white flight" back in the 70s. This is so typical of shills. They post half truths to cover the full truth. It is true that whites moved to avoid blacks, but central to that fear would be the perception that it would lead to a loss of value in their present home, not to mention crime. At the same time this same class could get a new home in the suburbs with lower taxes and gas was cheap. Many black families suffered from the first US economic haircut - the loss of small manufacturing jobs Drugs and booze came as medicine for their depression. We know that that is no help. This was the whole picture. The suburbs was a no brainer!
Today, gas is high along with taxes in the burbs while cities offer services, no commute with transportation to work. Wait! You say. Gas is now cheap. Wrong Kimosabe! Gas in the 70s was .61 cents a gallon. Now, even with the lower price, it is still 4x as expensive. It is not cheap and car insurance, maintenance and drive time must all be factored into the equation.
With that said, cities are also desperate for revenues to pay for those services as well as infrastructure, pension plans and other costs. Do I have to remind you that it cost $14. one way over a bridge in New York or under a tunnel? As cities raise taxes, especially on businesses, they face another "flight" to a tax haven state or location where taxes are traded for jobs. This flight has begun and outsourcing will only make it worse. The renters will follow. This will leave city budgets with a vacuum bigger than any sinkhole on record. A push for seniors will not work as the southern warm belt already has their grandkids. This is a slow death that nine of eleven US cities face. It will be a sad process, but because of the Fed's destruction of our currency which destroys our living standard, our cities are facing a slow death not to mention our government wasting all our lives and resources to police the world. One solution is to end external conflicts and use needed funds at home. Our citizens need to know that all lives matter. Give Peace A Chance!
P.S. I have not posted because I have undertaken a long distance move. I had no internet nor time. Little by little I'm returning to form. Your patience is appreciated. Thank you, dear reader.
Wednesday, September 21, 2016
50 Years of New Home Prices: It Tells Us...
...more than inflation, more than the wealth gap, and so many other facts that it is mind boggling. One could do a deeper study of this report and learn that globalization has basically destroyed the American middle class and the reach for social mobility in our society. It not only shows the lie of free trade, but how the Federal Reserve has destroyed the purchasing power of the dollar and lowered our standard of living.
In 1966 the cost for a new home was $23,300 which corresponds in today's money to $173K. Dear reader, as you know, you cannot buy a new home in America for $173K. So, you respond. My study of new home prices implies so many other aspects that I could write a book just on the correlation of price and income that equates to our standard of living and social mobility which is the greatest aspect of the concept of "America." It is a big part of the American Dream.
For instance, the average income in 1966 was just $6900 a year. If you had the average income or two wage earners that totaled that amount, you basically had one quarter of the purchase price of a new home in pay with take home wages.
Today
two wage earners are the norm which was not the case back in 1966. Today, young, single people work two jobs to make ends meet. To live within their means. Even with today's dual incomes, first time buyers are lacking in the home buying market. Tell me what I don't know, you say. It is not that all of a sudden no one wants the burden of home ownership, it is just basic economics. They can't afford it. As we delve further into the recent history of new home prices, we find that wages have not kept up with the cost for a new home. Why, you ask? Simple: the Federal Reserve and the government have spent and printed more dollars than they are really worth. In simple terms, they spent more than revenues. They do not live within their means. The Fed worked in conjunction with the government to keep rates low to finance all the spending. This implies and what I believe, that our government and the Federal Reserve is corrupt!
In 1966 we were involved in a war, just like today. We never give peace a chance. Anyway, the cost to engage in the fights for democracy or whatever slogan is used, catches up with the economy. The printing of dollars lowers its purchasing power. The media just uses one word - inflation. The government uses the same word as if that answered any question as to why things like food and energy and home prices cost more.
In 1966 a construction company used American made wallboard, nails, wood, cement, paint, appliances, etc. in making that new home. Not today. How many jobs were lost in this one category in our economy says it all. I could go on and on, but let's continue.
Prices for homes generally rose at around one to two percent a year. The American Dream was still alive even in the daunting face of free trade and globalization.
1st. Milestone
1985 saw a record as the cost for a new home rose over $100K for the first time. In today's money that is equivalent to $243,550. Needless to say that as prices rose, the belief in continuing home prices rose along with it.
Next Milestone
In 1994, the next big number came. The price for a new home rose over $150K. In today's money that equates to $250,880. Needless to remind you that people became aware that incomes were not rising along with the cost for a new home. This, however, could not dampen the desire for ones own castle.
New Millennium
In 2000 the price for a new home soared like the zeros in the date. The new milestone of $207K should have gotten everyone's attention. Protests should have been staged, but alas, everyone worked even harder to get their piece of the pie. In today's income that equals $289,280. You would need $70K income to have one-quarter of the purchase price. No wonder I didn't own a home back in 2000. That $70K income is around $20K more than the average income and remember, many households use two incomes to reach the average.
In just six years, the cost of a new home rose past $305K and in today's money that is $365,000. No wonder there was a housing crash in 2008. Keep in mind that home prices have returned to that level.
Today
In 2015, the cost for a new home is $360K. The average income, and remember, many households use two incomes to reach the number, is $56,000 a year. Simple math tells us that new home prices rose 52 times the income of 1966, and our income has risen by only 8x. This is how much the Federal Reserve and government has depreciated the value of our dollars. We no longer make our own products like appliances that go into a new home. Thank you, globalization for lowering our standard of living. The average income only buys one-sixth of the cost for a new home. We are falling further in our standard of living as free trade steals our jobs, robs us of our social mobility and shills say globalization makes our economy better. This is another reason to End the Fed!
In 1966 the cost for a new home was $23,300 which corresponds in today's money to $173K. Dear reader, as you know, you cannot buy a new home in America for $173K. So, you respond. My study of new home prices implies so many other aspects that I could write a book just on the correlation of price and income that equates to our standard of living and social mobility which is the greatest aspect of the concept of "America." It is a big part of the American Dream.
For instance, the average income in 1966 was just $6900 a year. If you had the average income or two wage earners that totaled that amount, you basically had one quarter of the purchase price of a new home in pay with take home wages.
Today
two wage earners are the norm which was not the case back in 1966. Today, young, single people work two jobs to make ends meet. To live within their means. Even with today's dual incomes, first time buyers are lacking in the home buying market. Tell me what I don't know, you say. It is not that all of a sudden no one wants the burden of home ownership, it is just basic economics. They can't afford it. As we delve further into the recent history of new home prices, we find that wages have not kept up with the cost for a new home. Why, you ask? Simple: the Federal Reserve and the government have spent and printed more dollars than they are really worth. In simple terms, they spent more than revenues. They do not live within their means. The Fed worked in conjunction with the government to keep rates low to finance all the spending. This implies and what I believe, that our government and the Federal Reserve is corrupt!
In 1966 we were involved in a war, just like today. We never give peace a chance. Anyway, the cost to engage in the fights for democracy or whatever slogan is used, catches up with the economy. The printing of dollars lowers its purchasing power. The media just uses one word - inflation. The government uses the same word as if that answered any question as to why things like food and energy and home prices cost more.
In 1966 a construction company used American made wallboard, nails, wood, cement, paint, appliances, etc. in making that new home. Not today. How many jobs were lost in this one category in our economy says it all. I could go on and on, but let's continue.
Prices for homes generally rose at around one to two percent a year. The American Dream was still alive even in the daunting face of free trade and globalization.
1st. Milestone
1985 saw a record as the cost for a new home rose over $100K for the first time. In today's money that is equivalent to $243,550. Needless to say that as prices rose, the belief in continuing home prices rose along with it.
Next Milestone
In 1994, the next big number came. The price for a new home rose over $150K. In today's money that equates to $250,880. Needless to remind you that people became aware that incomes were not rising along with the cost for a new home. This, however, could not dampen the desire for ones own castle.
New Millennium
In 2000 the price for a new home soared like the zeros in the date. The new milestone of $207K should have gotten everyone's attention. Protests should have been staged, but alas, everyone worked even harder to get their piece of the pie. In today's income that equals $289,280. You would need $70K income to have one-quarter of the purchase price. No wonder I didn't own a home back in 2000. That $70K income is around $20K more than the average income and remember, many households use two incomes to reach the average.
In just six years, the cost of a new home rose past $305K and in today's money that is $365,000. No wonder there was a housing crash in 2008. Keep in mind that home prices have returned to that level.
Today
In 2015, the cost for a new home is $360K. The average income, and remember, many households use two incomes to reach the number, is $56,000 a year. Simple math tells us that new home prices rose 52 times the income of 1966, and our income has risen by only 8x. This is how much the Federal Reserve and government has depreciated the value of our dollars. We no longer make our own products like appliances that go into a new home. Thank you, globalization for lowering our standard of living. The average income only buys one-sixth of the cost for a new home. We are falling further in our standard of living as free trade steals our jobs, robs us of our social mobility and shills say globalization makes our economy better. This is another reason to End the Fed!
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