My grandparents taught me to never waste. We passed down clothes from older to younger and if they were still in good condition, we donated them. If not, we cut off the buttons on shirts and put them in a jar for possible use somewhere down the road. We had jars for many things in closets. It was called the Odds and Ends collection. As the inaugural approaches, it is time for Trump to act and the following bits and pieces are not from a DC5 lyrics.
Capital Controls
were enacted in China in the gambling district of Macau. When you realize there is a war on cash, Trump needs to reassure everyone that he won't end the use of money in our society. Although there are many ways to view the decision to limit cash withdrawals from ATMs by the Chinese authorities, two main points come to mind. One, this stops outflows of money from China as many people use this technique to convert Yuan's into dollars. Secondly, maybe there is a deeper problem like not enough currency in circulation to meet the demands of the Chinese population? This is how rumors begin that can cause runs on banks and the Chinese do not have FDIC insurance for depositors.
ECB
has declared that it will cut back on its QE purchases. If you hadn't noticed, the euro has dropped in value. This is an attempt to strengthen the currency. It sits at 106 and it will decline further after the Fed hikes US interest rates tomorrow by another quarter point. This is great for European exporters, but very painful for citizens in the EU. A lower euro makes prices rise. Inflation will be a severe topic in the EU in 2017 along with the health of its banking system.
King Dollar
Currently, it sits above its confluence point at 100.99. It also entered a bullish cross pattern on the daily chart. It should rise again after the Fed announcement. This is great for US consumers, however it is hiding inflation in imports. A strong dollar makes products seem cheaper, but in reality, inflation is rising. Any decline in the dollar will hurt consumers and our economy. When our GDP can only reflect a 1.6% growth rate, we are on the border of trouble. When you consider all the manipulation of stats to makes our economy look better, a weak dollar will spell trouble with a capital "T".
Globalization
Economists say that free trade improves our standard of living and produces quality jobs. When I gather results that lie doesn't hold up. At present, our labor participation rate of 62.7% is almost 5% points lower than our historic average and this goes back to 1970s. Pundits counter that unemployment is at historic lows at 4.6%. Yeah, how about the fact that 34 hours is now considered full time and almost half of labor is part-time? These odds and ends takes us back to GDP. Usually, our exports make up 9.5% of GDP. Now, it is up to 12.2%. The shills claim globalization works. I reply that we average $40 billion in deficits every month in every year for over a DECADE. The world dumps on us and steal our jobs. This is why we have more people in poverty and collecting food stamps than ever before. Dear reader, don't forget all the invading species that destroy our environment on land and water.
So, Donald, what are you gonna do about it? Remember, action speaks louder than words and as for the record setting stock market, remember this: the higher you go, the thinner the air.
Wednesday, December 14, 2016
Wednesday, December 7, 2016
Much Ado about Nothing...for NOW
Leave it to Shakespeare, the bard of Avon to understand all the commotion that can be generated before the fact. The world has had three big election results in 2016 and the before, during and after BS never stops. There is one great positive. All the experts had it wrong, and the populist movement is a major setback for the elites.
Brexit
The first vote was in England. The shills in the media claimed that Britain would go into a depression which could take the global community, if it leaves the EU. It left, but only on paper. Nothing has changed as the behind the scenes elites seek a way to stop the people from their will. They see this unforeseen result as a loophole in their strategy for One World government under their rule. It appears that the results of this election will be put off until 2018 to give the elites time for their plan - B. This is what Europe calls democracy. There will be problems economically, but more civilly.
US Election
Another setback for the elites who already had their playbook out with a Hillary win. The stock market is going to the moon in belief that Trump will trump all legal handicaps for big business. Anything goes or I should say, "goes out the window" like air pollution or clean water as the Sioux will soon find out even with their short-term victory against the pipeline company. Time will tell what will actually happen. Demographics and pension shortfalls will play a huge part in it. Civil unrest is also on the table.
Italy
Matteo Renzi said if the people did not accept his ideas that he would quit. He's gone. The elites are scrambling for a way around the will of the people in this latest setback in their plans. Behind the scenes, the EU will step up their pressure for Italian banking reform. This is the real, future danger for anyone and everyone who has money in a bank. This is what is central in the Italian results. Renzi wanted the power to change their constitution which would allow him to use a corrupt idea, the bail-in.
Bail Out, Bail-in
Central banks always have the backs of their banking system. However, with the people seeing this one-sided protection in the crisis of 2008, a new plan is surfacing among central banks, the bail-in. This is corruption at its highest.
Our deposits are only backed by faith just like our currency. The FDIC gave everyone peace of mind and we no longer have runs on banks due to their missteps. Dear reader, when we deposit our money at a bank, we are actually lending the bank our money for them to do whatever they want with it. Whether its greed or survival, banks make mistakes. The FDIC protected us against those occurrences. Now, the concept of bail-in is emerging. This is an idea to recapitalize banks if they become insolvent. The FDIC won't be utilized. FDIC lacks funding anyway and they could never cover a "too big too fail" institution. The bank would just seize our money as their asset and use it to recapitalize itself. We would be robbed!
This is already happening in Europe. For centuries aristocrats stole from their people. This is what Renzi was planning to do. It is another example of small thinking from behind the scenes elites in the EU. The EU put pressure on Renzi by implying that no bail out for the Italian banking system was in the cards. At present, it is estimated that Italian banks hold $400 billon in non-performing loans(NPL). These are loans that are 90 days past due with no hope to be repaid. This figure represents 18% of all outstanding loans and makes up 20% of GDP. Serious problem. No wonder the people said, "No!" I would too.
With negative rates and now, the bail-in, world banking is in a terrible position. Dear reader, the template has already been tried with the Cyprus crisis of 2013. It started with capital controls to stop or limit withdrawals. Then, they made a bank holiday. When the banks reopened, everyone took a haircut to recapitalize the banks - the bail-in. They took their depositors money. The EU is perfecting the method. Our central bank, the Fed is studying their playbook. We need to unite to crush this thinking or we all will end up in poverty.
P.S. Soon the Dutch, the French, and the Germans will go to the polls. The elites will try to scare the people while they attempt to get a new election in Great Britain...and the beat goes on.
Brexit
The first vote was in England. The shills in the media claimed that Britain would go into a depression which could take the global community, if it leaves the EU. It left, but only on paper. Nothing has changed as the behind the scenes elites seek a way to stop the people from their will. They see this unforeseen result as a loophole in their strategy for One World government under their rule. It appears that the results of this election will be put off until 2018 to give the elites time for their plan - B. This is what Europe calls democracy. There will be problems economically, but more civilly.
US Election
Another setback for the elites who already had their playbook out with a Hillary win. The stock market is going to the moon in belief that Trump will trump all legal handicaps for big business. Anything goes or I should say, "goes out the window" like air pollution or clean water as the Sioux will soon find out even with their short-term victory against the pipeline company. Time will tell what will actually happen. Demographics and pension shortfalls will play a huge part in it. Civil unrest is also on the table.
Italy
Matteo Renzi said if the people did not accept his ideas that he would quit. He's gone. The elites are scrambling for a way around the will of the people in this latest setback in their plans. Behind the scenes, the EU will step up their pressure for Italian banking reform. This is the real, future danger for anyone and everyone who has money in a bank. This is what is central in the Italian results. Renzi wanted the power to change their constitution which would allow him to use a corrupt idea, the bail-in.
Bail Out, Bail-in
Central banks always have the backs of their banking system. However, with the people seeing this one-sided protection in the crisis of 2008, a new plan is surfacing among central banks, the bail-in. This is corruption at its highest.
Our deposits are only backed by faith just like our currency. The FDIC gave everyone peace of mind and we no longer have runs on banks due to their missteps. Dear reader, when we deposit our money at a bank, we are actually lending the bank our money for them to do whatever they want with it. Whether its greed or survival, banks make mistakes. The FDIC protected us against those occurrences. Now, the concept of bail-in is emerging. This is an idea to recapitalize banks if they become insolvent. The FDIC won't be utilized. FDIC lacks funding anyway and they could never cover a "too big too fail" institution. The bank would just seize our money as their asset and use it to recapitalize itself. We would be robbed!
This is already happening in Europe. For centuries aristocrats stole from their people. This is what Renzi was planning to do. It is another example of small thinking from behind the scenes elites in the EU. The EU put pressure on Renzi by implying that no bail out for the Italian banking system was in the cards. At present, it is estimated that Italian banks hold $400 billon in non-performing loans(NPL). These are loans that are 90 days past due with no hope to be repaid. This figure represents 18% of all outstanding loans and makes up 20% of GDP. Serious problem. No wonder the people said, "No!" I would too.
With negative rates and now, the bail-in, world banking is in a terrible position. Dear reader, the template has already been tried with the Cyprus crisis of 2013. It started with capital controls to stop or limit withdrawals. Then, they made a bank holiday. When the banks reopened, everyone took a haircut to recapitalize the banks - the bail-in. They took their depositors money. The EU is perfecting the method. Our central bank, the Fed is studying their playbook. We need to unite to crush this thinking or we all will end up in poverty.
P.S. Soon the Dutch, the French, and the Germans will go to the polls. The elites will try to scare the people while they attempt to get a new election in Great Britain...and the beat goes on.
Wednesday, November 30, 2016
What's Happening With $Gold?
Ever since the election surprise of Donald Trump, two things have happened in the stock market. The Dow and S&P 500 have recorded record highs and the precious metals have been pushed to the sidelines along with Hillary.
Why, you ask? Good question because the Trump agenda appears to be extremely inflationary which is a hallmark selling point for metals. The recent price action is based on beliefs. Clues are revealed in Trump's choices for cabinet positions. Sadly, he is picking the same old same old. However, this could be an appeasement for the Republican congress. As this pans out, there will be doubts about the vein of riches flowing from his administration. The market will pullback a bit. The metals will bounce, and yet, nothing concrete will be known. This is how I see it...
100 Days
The market will give Trump a honeymoon. During that span the market will reveal two quarters of earnings. After the big jump in GDP of 3.2% for the last quarter, I see another drop in the GDP in first quarter. This makes for a range bound market. In addition, the market expects the earnings recession to end. This has nothing to do with the election results. The market will also adjust to the measly quarter point hike by the Fed. We will also see the results with quota numbers from the OPEC meeting. I see no change and the oil glut grows. Black Friday and retail are dying. They will give way to Cyber Monday and internet purchases. For every piece of good news there will be a piece of bad news. This will reinforce the market in a range. Of course, there could always be a surprise like a geo-political event or anti-immigration in Europe or here. There is even a rumor that India will ban gold imports because they are a drain to India's economy. This won't happen because a gold ban would be a culture shock to that society and make Modi, a one-term prime minister. He probably will keep the rhetoric against gold and he could add a tax. This is a negative.
There is always something to worry about, but if anything, it could be the US pension plans in cities and states. By the first of May, yes May Day is the inflection point. It needs to be circled.
All this is conjecture. What price for the metals?
The metals are facing a serious technical challenge. Not only are the fiat people gunning for them, but gold and silver are staring at a "death cross." At present, both show a bearish flag/pennant pattern. The charts reveal this same pattern in individual stocks. This is not good. In addition, the two indexes are conflicted at best. Gold needs to rise to $1218 an ounce and silver needs to rise to $17.14 an ounce. With that said, I do see a near-term bounce.
$XAU
held its support level and no new low was achieved. It needs to get back to 85 to break the downward pressure.
$HUI
the gold bug index hit a new low which is dangerous. It needs to get back to 194 to break this downward pressure.
The direction of the metals and the market will be effected by the Ten-Year Treasury. The recent action in the 30-Year downturn held support before 147 and this is crucial for everything. After digesting all of the above, I see an inflection point and it points to the first of May. I have a name for this:
Emotional Pit Stop
How the new president reacts will determine his administration. If one studies cycles as I do, it won't matter what Trump does because the cards will deal him his hand of fate.
Why, you ask? Good question because the Trump agenda appears to be extremely inflationary which is a hallmark selling point for metals. The recent price action is based on beliefs. Clues are revealed in Trump's choices for cabinet positions. Sadly, he is picking the same old same old. However, this could be an appeasement for the Republican congress. As this pans out, there will be doubts about the vein of riches flowing from his administration. The market will pullback a bit. The metals will bounce, and yet, nothing concrete will be known. This is how I see it...
100 Days
The market will give Trump a honeymoon. During that span the market will reveal two quarters of earnings. After the big jump in GDP of 3.2% for the last quarter, I see another drop in the GDP in first quarter. This makes for a range bound market. In addition, the market expects the earnings recession to end. This has nothing to do with the election results. The market will also adjust to the measly quarter point hike by the Fed. We will also see the results with quota numbers from the OPEC meeting. I see no change and the oil glut grows. Black Friday and retail are dying. They will give way to Cyber Monday and internet purchases. For every piece of good news there will be a piece of bad news. This will reinforce the market in a range. Of course, there could always be a surprise like a geo-political event or anti-immigration in Europe or here. There is even a rumor that India will ban gold imports because they are a drain to India's economy. This won't happen because a gold ban would be a culture shock to that society and make Modi, a one-term prime minister. He probably will keep the rhetoric against gold and he could add a tax. This is a negative.
There is always something to worry about, but if anything, it could be the US pension plans in cities and states. By the first of May, yes May Day is the inflection point. It needs to be circled.
All this is conjecture. What price for the metals?
The metals are facing a serious technical challenge. Not only are the fiat people gunning for them, but gold and silver are staring at a "death cross." At present, both show a bearish flag/pennant pattern. The charts reveal this same pattern in individual stocks. This is not good. In addition, the two indexes are conflicted at best. Gold needs to rise to $1218 an ounce and silver needs to rise to $17.14 an ounce. With that said, I do see a near-term bounce.
$XAU
held its support level and no new low was achieved. It needs to get back to 85 to break the downward pressure.
$HUI
the gold bug index hit a new low which is dangerous. It needs to get back to 194 to break this downward pressure.
The direction of the metals and the market will be effected by the Ten-Year Treasury. The recent action in the 30-Year downturn held support before 147 and this is crucial for everything. After digesting all of the above, I see an inflection point and it points to the first of May. I have a name for this:
Emotional Pit Stop
How the new president reacts will determine his administration. If one studies cycles as I do, it won't matter what Trump does because the cards will deal him his hand of fate.
Wednesday, November 23, 2016
Low Tide For Shippers
"The market is irrational and it can stay that way longer than you can stay solvent" is an old Wall Street proverb.
That wisdom is so relevant under today's market euphoria. The market seems to hit new record highs on a daily basis since the Trump upset election win. This high tide has lifted all boats, but I'm here to warn you that shippers have been caught on a sandy bottom for three years running. Yet, shippers have enjoyed gains of parabolic proportions. Dry Ships(DRYS) is up 1500%. How about Paragon Shipping(PRGN)? It is up 49% in two days. Throw a dart at a shipping company and see profits that will cover all your holiday desires.
No Free Lunch
is another expression and it applies doubly to shippers. Let's take a closer look.
$BDI
is the symbol for the Baltic Dry Shipping Index. It too has jumped off the charts. The day before the election it stood at 800. It now floats at 1257 and rising. Now, in the fourteen or so days after the election, did all shipping companies receive a 50% order increase? By the way, this index hit a low back in February of 290. I can safely say that they didn't have to call-in help to answer the phone orders. Now, I'll answer the question. No. Let me say this again, but even louder. NO!
Shippers face a double whammy. There are too many boats facing declining orders as global trade has slowed. The fifty day moving average for the index is 620 and the 200-day is 925. So, do you want to pay 33% more than the moving average? There is strong resistance at 1480 because the tide has already left the harbor.
What about individual issues, you ask?
How about Dry Ships? This rusting carrier had it stock jump(see above) since the election. It is only paint covering the rust. This company specializes in stock splits or I should say reverse stock splits. Back in October of 2014, it did one and its stock went to $7,500. per share. Then, it went straight down to $3.84 just last month. But paint covers many faults and with another 15 to 1 reverse split, the stock went over $100 last week. If you bought this election hype, get a tin cup fast. You're going to need it as the stock fell to $11.81 on Friday. This carrier is not alone as there are many other examples like Paragon Shipping(PRGN - see above)which climbed to $2.61 a share. There are rumors that the board has already approved a bankruptcy plan. The stock was $45. a share back in July 2015. How about Sino-Global Shipping? It had gains of 553% two weeks ago and another 68% last week. By the way, Sino-Global is one of three members in an Asian trade alliance which lost one member - Hanjin Shipping. It entered bankruptcy back in June.
Consider This:
You ordered something. Hanjin ships it. The court now has jurisdiction. You can't unload. Due to the failure of your order, you go bust. You call a lawyer. He just got back from his vacation cruise. He gets in the court line to file your lien along with thousands of other lawyers for a claim against a company that already couldn't meet its normal obligations and now, faces this.
Marianas Trench
is the deepest part of the Pacific Ocean floor and if you buy into this shipping frenzy, this is how deep your stock could fall. Another pearl of wisdom, "A sucker is born every minute." Caveat emptor!
That wisdom is so relevant under today's market euphoria. The market seems to hit new record highs on a daily basis since the Trump upset election win. This high tide has lifted all boats, but I'm here to warn you that shippers have been caught on a sandy bottom for three years running. Yet, shippers have enjoyed gains of parabolic proportions. Dry Ships(DRYS) is up 1500%. How about Paragon Shipping(PRGN)? It is up 49% in two days. Throw a dart at a shipping company and see profits that will cover all your holiday desires.
No Free Lunch
is another expression and it applies doubly to shippers. Let's take a closer look.
$BDI
is the symbol for the Baltic Dry Shipping Index. It too has jumped off the charts. The day before the election it stood at 800. It now floats at 1257 and rising. Now, in the fourteen or so days after the election, did all shipping companies receive a 50% order increase? By the way, this index hit a low back in February of 290. I can safely say that they didn't have to call-in help to answer the phone orders. Now, I'll answer the question. No. Let me say this again, but even louder. NO!
Shippers face a double whammy. There are too many boats facing declining orders as global trade has slowed. The fifty day moving average for the index is 620 and the 200-day is 925. So, do you want to pay 33% more than the moving average? There is strong resistance at 1480 because the tide has already left the harbor.
What about individual issues, you ask?
How about Dry Ships? This rusting carrier had it stock jump(see above) since the election. It is only paint covering the rust. This company specializes in stock splits or I should say reverse stock splits. Back in October of 2014, it did one and its stock went to $7,500. per share. Then, it went straight down to $3.84 just last month. But paint covers many faults and with another 15 to 1 reverse split, the stock went over $100 last week. If you bought this election hype, get a tin cup fast. You're going to need it as the stock fell to $11.81 on Friday. This carrier is not alone as there are many other examples like Paragon Shipping(PRGN - see above)which climbed to $2.61 a share. There are rumors that the board has already approved a bankruptcy plan. The stock was $45. a share back in July 2015. How about Sino-Global Shipping? It had gains of 553% two weeks ago and another 68% last week. By the way, Sino-Global is one of three members in an Asian trade alliance which lost one member - Hanjin Shipping. It entered bankruptcy back in June.
Consider This:
You ordered something. Hanjin ships it. The court now has jurisdiction. You can't unload. Due to the failure of your order, you go bust. You call a lawyer. He just got back from his vacation cruise. He gets in the court line to file your lien along with thousands of other lawyers for a claim against a company that already couldn't meet its normal obligations and now, faces this.
Marianas Trench
is the deepest part of the Pacific Ocean floor and if you buy into this shipping frenzy, this is how deep your stock could fall. Another pearl of wisdom, "A sucker is born every minute." Caveat emptor!
Wednesday, November 16, 2016
Dennis Gartman Steps In Number Two
Last week in Kitco News, Mr. Gartman wrote a piece on his perspective of the Trump election win. He says, "Trump's potential tariffs would be massively deflationary." He compares it to the disastrous tariff bill in 1930. How wrong can one be? Not only is he way off base about tariffs, but he sides with the wrong reasons that made the Great Depression. He adds his opinion that protectionism caused the depression when it was the central bankers to which the status quo love. The Federal Reserve misdirects like a magician. They used their influence along with a partnership of the elites to fend off responsibility for the crash. They are the real culprit for the lost economic decade.
The Smoot - Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 added tariffs, but mostly in the agricultural industry. The global community retaliated with their own protectionist measures which caused a slump in world trade. With that said, the real death blow was caused by two central bankers doing their market manipulations. Their actions crushed the bond and currency markets.
In the US, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates which hurt investment and added expenses to all companies. Their timing could not have been worse. By strengthening the dollar, we lost market share in exports. In England, the British closed the gold standard. This action caused chaos in international currencies. These two actions were way more devastating than the tariff bill, but the power to write history whitewashes the central bankers mistakes.
Three Reasons Gartman Is Wrong
First off, tariffs cause imports to be priced higher. This hurts our consumers who lack choice. Trump is providing a cushion for domestic producers who can provide the consumer with a choice. If the consumer can buy a US product for the same price as an import, they will buy American. There will be a period of higher inflation, but prices will stabilize back to the law of supply and demand. As for the global community retaliating, let them. We only export 14% and it is items that will be purchased anyway. We sell food. You buy if you are hungry. We sell tech because we invented it. The global community has no choice. We can even stop outsourcing by making domestic production more feasible. We were once a self-reliant nation. We can do it again.
Secondly, producers will need workers to make the products that we use to make. This means jobs with better wages and our GDP will rise. We stop our decline in our standard of living. This provides more local and state revenues to meet long put off projects. This creates more jobs and services.
Finally, our national deficits shrink because those taxes on imports are revenues for our government. What was once a negative with money flowing out of the country becomes a positive with money flowing into our nation.
Dennis is out of touch. He forgot the words of wisdom from Rodney Dangerfield who said, "Always look out for number one, but don't step in number two."
The Smoot - Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 added tariffs, but mostly in the agricultural industry. The global community retaliated with their own protectionist measures which caused a slump in world trade. With that said, the real death blow was caused by two central bankers doing their market manipulations. Their actions crushed the bond and currency markets.
In the US, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates which hurt investment and added expenses to all companies. Their timing could not have been worse. By strengthening the dollar, we lost market share in exports. In England, the British closed the gold standard. This action caused chaos in international currencies. These two actions were way more devastating than the tariff bill, but the power to write history whitewashes the central bankers mistakes.
Three Reasons Gartman Is Wrong
First off, tariffs cause imports to be priced higher. This hurts our consumers who lack choice. Trump is providing a cushion for domestic producers who can provide the consumer with a choice. If the consumer can buy a US product for the same price as an import, they will buy American. There will be a period of higher inflation, but prices will stabilize back to the law of supply and demand. As for the global community retaliating, let them. We only export 14% and it is items that will be purchased anyway. We sell food. You buy if you are hungry. We sell tech because we invented it. The global community has no choice. We can even stop outsourcing by making domestic production more feasible. We were once a self-reliant nation. We can do it again.
Secondly, producers will need workers to make the products that we use to make. This means jobs with better wages and our GDP will rise. We stop our decline in our standard of living. This provides more local and state revenues to meet long put off projects. This creates more jobs and services.
Finally, our national deficits shrink because those taxes on imports are revenues for our government. What was once a negative with money flowing out of the country becomes a positive with money flowing into our nation.
Dennis is out of touch. He forgot the words of wisdom from Rodney Dangerfield who said, "Always look out for number one, but don't step in number two."
Wednesday, November 9, 2016
Trucking
- "Truckin' got my chips cashed in, keep truckin' like the do-dah man
Together, more or less in line, just keep truckin' on..."
- Jerry Garcia and the Grateful dead
Contrary to the many meanings of a word in our American lexicon and culture, the title actually refers to its basic concept, over-the-road haulers. With the election the winner needs to look at the recent declines in long distance trucking and what that forecasts for our economy.
Trucking moves 70% of our goods. This aspect is broadcasted loud and clear on late night television in almost every city and state, seeking students for their driving schools with the promise of a good paying job.
Bad News
According to Act Research big outfits like Werner and Swift are pulling drivers off the road because the expected orders in their forecast has not materialized. In fact, heavy duty truck orders have declined by 46% to 13,900 units. This aspect is revealed in the 9,000 manufacturing jobs that were lost in October. Many in that number were in transportation equipment, a staple for trucking in correlation to manufacturing.
Cummins
The CEO, Thomas Linebarger gave as a reason for his lower guidance when he said, "We're hearing from lots and lots of Fleets that while they're a little nervous on business - They're delaying purchases."
If this large and important segment in our economy has more declines the conclusion is sadly simple. There will be layoffs in retail and when we already know that our malls and shopping centers are under duress, this does not bode well for our future economy.
Together, more or less in line, just keep truckin' on..."
- Jerry Garcia and the Grateful dead
Contrary to the many meanings of a word in our American lexicon and culture, the title actually refers to its basic concept, over-the-road haulers. With the election the winner needs to look at the recent declines in long distance trucking and what that forecasts for our economy.
Trucking moves 70% of our goods. This aspect is broadcasted loud and clear on late night television in almost every city and state, seeking students for their driving schools with the promise of a good paying job.
Bad News
According to Act Research big outfits like Werner and Swift are pulling drivers off the road because the expected orders in their forecast has not materialized. In fact, heavy duty truck orders have declined by 46% to 13,900 units. This aspect is revealed in the 9,000 manufacturing jobs that were lost in October. Many in that number were in transportation equipment, a staple for trucking in correlation to manufacturing.
Cummins
The CEO, Thomas Linebarger gave as a reason for his lower guidance when he said, "We're hearing from lots and lots of Fleets that while they're a little nervous on business - They're delaying purchases."
If this large and important segment in our economy has more declines the conclusion is sadly simple. There will be layoffs in retail and when we already know that our malls and shopping centers are under duress, this does not bode well for our future economy.
Wednesday, November 2, 2016
"On The Road Again...Turn The Page"
I had my tunes on for energy, reflection and more as I begun a 2,600 mile transplant across our beautiful and large nation. Flying is quicker, more convenient and cheaper, but you can't bring your TV, bed and stuff on the plane. In addition, you can't get a pulse of the country from 30,000 plus feet. From the ground you can see the differences in towns, cities and states. Pictures tell a story and in the length of my trip, I have a catalogue, full to the brim along with enough caffeine to talk about it in this blog.
One thing I came to realize is that some states do not offer rest stops that are so common along the I-95 east coast. When this highway enters Florida, you are greeted with a lovely building with many perks for the traveler along with a park-like area to walk the pet. Once you pass the Mississippi, you will be hard pressed to find such amenities. Could be cut-backs in budgets?
You will also have difficulty in navigating the interstates. The even number interstates go east and west while the odd numbers go north and south. They are in fairly good condition. However, if you are traversing in a northwest route or a slicing pattern, these vast highways offer poor connections from even to odd numbered roads.
Then, there are those differences that I mentioned above. Yeah, there are thousands of hotels to rest, clean up and grab a hot meal, but if you are on a budget unlike our federal government, those are options that my wallet can't afford. I like to point out that all the fast food places like McDonald's were doing good business. I rented a truck and although the agent said it would get around 12 miles-per-gallon. It was closer to six. This new found info put a hurt on my finances. Anyway, I figured that I could rough it by using rest areas and eating cold sandwiches.
A New Corruption
Kansas is setting new levels to steal from citizens that even New Jersey would admire. When you travel north along I-35 and enter Kansas, the theft begins. You see, Kansas started a toll road turnpike, but it begins on the same road as I-35. Now, the interstate road system is a federally paid and built network. It is paid by taxes on gasoline in every state. This is why there are no tolls to use it. It seems however, that states have found a loophole either under maintenance or some dated clause to place tolls like for bridges or whatever. Now, back to Kansas. Picture yourself, driving all day as the sun sets in the west. You keep your eyes open for a rest area, but all you see is this new adaptation called, "A parking area." It is nothing more than a side road off the interstate. It has no facilities, no lights and no security. This revelation along with the changing weather has given me a new found respect for long distance truck drivers. They too are on a budget not to mention the need for a restroom after twelve hours of non-stop driving.
Continuing. It is getting dark. I enter Kansas and a moment of joy as another state is crossed off the list. The joy fades fast as you enter a Twilight Zone. Suddenly, along the darkened road, did a sign just say this is the last toll free exit? You have no time to think and no place to stop and check your map to see if you missed an exit or something. You proceed another mile. You enter the toll plaza where there are no workers. It is all automated. No one to help as a machine pushes out a ticket that is based on mile usage. You are trapped. You can't even do a crazy New York thing like trying to turn around across the highway and go back to the last toll free exit and find an alternative route to I-135. You ask yourself, how can they do this as you exit around twelve miles later and $2.25 poorer. This is only the beginning. There are communication breakdowns to follow.
Enter Oklahoma
America is not the biggest country, but crossing Texas sure feels that way. I was happy to exit Kansas, but the Sooner State is even bigger. By the way, there is no chronological order of states, just the events. Oklahoma is very similar to Kansas in the aspect that there are very few, if any, rest areas. After driving another long, non-stop day and seeing lightning flashing in the west, I decided to compromise and rest in a parking area. I knew this region of the nation was called "tornado ally." I tried to imagine how fearful it must be for one of these storms to strike in the middle of the night. Personally, I couldn't live that way. Suddenly, the western lightning reached I-35. Fortunately, at the same time as the rain started, a parking area appeared. I pulled into it. It was crowded with over-the-road haulers, but I found a space on the right side of it. It was on a slope that had a sharp drop, but I was off the highway and very tired. I made a cold sandwich and turned on the radio to the Thursday Night Football game. The rain came hard on the windshield, but it didn't hold my attention. This is good I thought. A sandwich with some water and I found a station with the game.
A Miracle in the Parking Area
Then, a lightning, static sound came over the radio as the whole sky around the interstate turned white from a bolt directly above. I looked to the west and I could see a tower being illuminated by the lightning. The radio went out. A tinge of fear began on my nerves. What could I do if a tornado came? I couldn't even see it. Suddenly, my SUV began to rock from the wind and rain. I put my foot on the brakes, hoping that it would add stability. I looked around. Lightning flashed all around. A freight hauler going south was pushed by the wind into the center meridian. He came to quick stop in the center of the highway. Another driver stopped to offer help, but he waived him away. My car shook more violently and I became fearful that the wind would push it off the slope and destroy my car. I prayed to Notre Dame(Our Lady). The rain stopped, but the wind blew even harder. I looked toward the truck in the meridian. A tow truck arrived along with a police car. I thought that although this state didn't have rest areas, they respond to emergencies very quickly. The red and blue lights of the police car illuminated the sky. I looked toward the tower again, but instead I saw a huge wooden cross hovering in the sky. I rubbed my eyes. I looked around at the other vehicles in the parking area and the truck in the center of the highway. No one did anything out of the ordinary. I looked west again. The cross appeared even closer and now had a shroud draped over the cross. The police lights gave a purple look to the shroud. Mary, God was answering my prayer. Lost in thought and hope, I looked toward the cross again. It was gone as both the wind and rain moved eastward and away from the interstate. Did I see what I saw? Should I try to rest for awhile? What if another storm comes? No, this is the doubt of the devil playing with my head, trying to rationalize my faith. To make it all my imagination. After a few more moments of doubt and indecision, I pushed myself to reenter the highway. About three miles later, a sign read, "Next exit one mile, Stillwater." Yes, it was real. "He lays me beside still waters..."
I didn't have the tune in my collection, but something bought me back to Harry and his great work, "Taxi, 'It was raining hard in Frisco, I needed one more fare to make my night, a lady flagged me down...There was not much more for us to talk about, whatever we had once was gone...you see I was going to learn to fly...she took off for the floodlights and I took off for the sky. I fly so high when I'm stoned...' "
There is not much more to tell of this journey. Wyoming has nice rest areas and Utah is very scenic. I'm safe and happy in my new state and home except I forgot to add that I saw many wind farms off in the distance in Nebraska, Wyoming, Kansas and Oklahoma and also oil wells in Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska and Wyoming as well as the known southern producers and corn fields everywhere and everywhere they grow tall.
One thing I came to realize is that some states do not offer rest stops that are so common along the I-95 east coast. When this highway enters Florida, you are greeted with a lovely building with many perks for the traveler along with a park-like area to walk the pet. Once you pass the Mississippi, you will be hard pressed to find such amenities. Could be cut-backs in budgets?
You will also have difficulty in navigating the interstates. The even number interstates go east and west while the odd numbers go north and south. They are in fairly good condition. However, if you are traversing in a northwest route or a slicing pattern, these vast highways offer poor connections from even to odd numbered roads.
Then, there are those differences that I mentioned above. Yeah, there are thousands of hotels to rest, clean up and grab a hot meal, but if you are on a budget unlike our federal government, those are options that my wallet can't afford. I like to point out that all the fast food places like McDonald's were doing good business. I rented a truck and although the agent said it would get around 12 miles-per-gallon. It was closer to six. This new found info put a hurt on my finances. Anyway, I figured that I could rough it by using rest areas and eating cold sandwiches.
A New Corruption
Kansas is setting new levels to steal from citizens that even New Jersey would admire. When you travel north along I-35 and enter Kansas, the theft begins. You see, Kansas started a toll road turnpike, but it begins on the same road as I-35. Now, the interstate road system is a federally paid and built network. It is paid by taxes on gasoline in every state. This is why there are no tolls to use it. It seems however, that states have found a loophole either under maintenance or some dated clause to place tolls like for bridges or whatever. Now, back to Kansas. Picture yourself, driving all day as the sun sets in the west. You keep your eyes open for a rest area, but all you see is this new adaptation called, "A parking area." It is nothing more than a side road off the interstate. It has no facilities, no lights and no security. This revelation along with the changing weather has given me a new found respect for long distance truck drivers. They too are on a budget not to mention the need for a restroom after twelve hours of non-stop driving.
Continuing. It is getting dark. I enter Kansas and a moment of joy as another state is crossed off the list. The joy fades fast as you enter a Twilight Zone. Suddenly, along the darkened road, did a sign just say this is the last toll free exit? You have no time to think and no place to stop and check your map to see if you missed an exit or something. You proceed another mile. You enter the toll plaza where there are no workers. It is all automated. No one to help as a machine pushes out a ticket that is based on mile usage. You are trapped. You can't even do a crazy New York thing like trying to turn around across the highway and go back to the last toll free exit and find an alternative route to I-135. You ask yourself, how can they do this as you exit around twelve miles later and $2.25 poorer. This is only the beginning. There are communication breakdowns to follow.
Enter Oklahoma
America is not the biggest country, but crossing Texas sure feels that way. I was happy to exit Kansas, but the Sooner State is even bigger. By the way, there is no chronological order of states, just the events. Oklahoma is very similar to Kansas in the aspect that there are very few, if any, rest areas. After driving another long, non-stop day and seeing lightning flashing in the west, I decided to compromise and rest in a parking area. I knew this region of the nation was called "tornado ally." I tried to imagine how fearful it must be for one of these storms to strike in the middle of the night. Personally, I couldn't live that way. Suddenly, the western lightning reached I-35. Fortunately, at the same time as the rain started, a parking area appeared. I pulled into it. It was crowded with over-the-road haulers, but I found a space on the right side of it. It was on a slope that had a sharp drop, but I was off the highway and very tired. I made a cold sandwich and turned on the radio to the Thursday Night Football game. The rain came hard on the windshield, but it didn't hold my attention. This is good I thought. A sandwich with some water and I found a station with the game.
A Miracle in the Parking Area
Then, a lightning, static sound came over the radio as the whole sky around the interstate turned white from a bolt directly above. I looked to the west and I could see a tower being illuminated by the lightning. The radio went out. A tinge of fear began on my nerves. What could I do if a tornado came? I couldn't even see it. Suddenly, my SUV began to rock from the wind and rain. I put my foot on the brakes, hoping that it would add stability. I looked around. Lightning flashed all around. A freight hauler going south was pushed by the wind into the center meridian. He came to quick stop in the center of the highway. Another driver stopped to offer help, but he waived him away. My car shook more violently and I became fearful that the wind would push it off the slope and destroy my car. I prayed to Notre Dame(Our Lady). The rain stopped, but the wind blew even harder. I looked toward the truck in the meridian. A tow truck arrived along with a police car. I thought that although this state didn't have rest areas, they respond to emergencies very quickly. The red and blue lights of the police car illuminated the sky. I looked toward the tower again, but instead I saw a huge wooden cross hovering in the sky. I rubbed my eyes. I looked around at the other vehicles in the parking area and the truck in the center of the highway. No one did anything out of the ordinary. I looked west again. The cross appeared even closer and now had a shroud draped over the cross. The police lights gave a purple look to the shroud. Mary, God was answering my prayer. Lost in thought and hope, I looked toward the cross again. It was gone as both the wind and rain moved eastward and away from the interstate. Did I see what I saw? Should I try to rest for awhile? What if another storm comes? No, this is the doubt of the devil playing with my head, trying to rationalize my faith. To make it all my imagination. After a few more moments of doubt and indecision, I pushed myself to reenter the highway. About three miles later, a sign read, "Next exit one mile, Stillwater." Yes, it was real. "He lays me beside still waters..."
I didn't have the tune in my collection, but something bought me back to Harry and his great work, "Taxi, 'It was raining hard in Frisco, I needed one more fare to make my night, a lady flagged me down...There was not much more for us to talk about, whatever we had once was gone...you see I was going to learn to fly...she took off for the floodlights and I took off for the sky. I fly so high when I'm stoned...' "
There is not much more to tell of this journey. Wyoming has nice rest areas and Utah is very scenic. I'm safe and happy in my new state and home except I forgot to add that I saw many wind farms off in the distance in Nebraska, Wyoming, Kansas and Oklahoma and also oil wells in Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska and Wyoming as well as the known southern producers and corn fields everywhere and everywhere they grow tall.
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