- I see a bad moon a-rising.
I see trouble on the way.
I see earthquakes and lightnin'.
I see bad times today.
Don't go 'round tonight
It's bound to take your life.
There's a bad moon on the rise.
- John Fogerty and CCR.
(amend the thought as I see the danger in stocks.)
The US stock market is at highs with new records on NASDAQ and global indexes are following the uptrend. However, one weak link could send them all tumbling down. After you read this piece, I hope you can understand my concern. Before I offer you the recent highs in the IBVC, let me give you some background on the nation where it is listed.
Once Upon A Time...
A new president took office in 2013. He was the choice for succession by the former president who died from ailments. Just two months into his term the new leader devalued the nation's currency because basic necessities were in short supply. This is classic third world thinking. This action led the country into a recession. He told his people not to worry because they have the largest oil reserves of any nation. The calm did not settle into the nation's environment as the price of oil declined. Since oil accounted for 95% of the nation's foreign currency earnings and revenue, things got tight. President Maduro declared a state emergency in 2016 due to triple digit inflation, high unemployment, the continuous shortage of basic necessities, medicine and high crime. This action caused a response by the Venezuelan people who developed a huge black market for goods which of course, are tax free.
Meanwhile, oversea vendors have not been paid and the country faces many international lawsuits for non-payment and the nationalization of private enterprises.
A little humor...
In an ironic twist, Maduro ordered a new higher denominated bills for the currency and to fight counterfeiters. He had a special order for paper from an oversea printer. However, the printer refused the Venezuelan currency for payment due to its sinking value and Maduro does not, at the moment, have the money to buy an acceptable currency to print his new money.
This is not a pretty economic picture. To compound the pain the people have been protesting the violence on those who speak out against the government. Those dead souls only said he truth: Venezuela has triple digit inflation, high crime, GPD has fallen 16% last year and expected to decline another 12% over the next three years, gasoline consumption is down 19% and still, Venezuela has to import refined gasoline and per capita income is the same as in 1990. The nation owes $90 billion in foreign debt and may stop payments like to the utility companies which has caused "brown-outs" of electricity on numerous occasions. Dear reader, none of that is funny which is why Venezuela is in the top ten in the misery index.
Being desperate for "dinero" Maduro has offered for sale a large stake in the state oil. The Russian giant, Rosneft wants it. This is ugly because Chevron owns 30% in the state's oil. It is the company that developed the nation's asset and due to the hatred of America, Maduro turns to the Communist. In addition, one other US oil firm has helped Venezuela in the past, but the illegal confiscation of Conoco-Phillips assets without payment is just another lawsuit. Now, that you have a good feel for the situation in Venezuela, this is the problem for equities.
Where is this going...
On Tuesday of last week, the IBVC which is the nation's stock exchange went up, please be seated for this, almost 10% or over 5,000 points in ONE DAY. This is not a typo. Did they find a cure for cancer? Did the price of oil go back over $100 per barrel? Did they invent a flying car with a new energy source? No! No! No! People, it gets worse. The IBVC leads the world in gains as it rose over 40,000 points last year. That is twice the value of the US big board which is the most valuable exchange in the world. It is almost 7x the value of NASDAQ which contains all the top tech innovators. What the hell is going on? I haven't a clue, but their market was over 61,000 by Wednesday of last week. This is going to blow-up and because derivatives are so prevalent in world exchanges that when this explodes, it will chain react to all world markets. This is the meme in my unpublished book, "All things are connected."
Meanwhile, more protests are scheduled and Maduro fears a "coup." He has armed a civilian militia for protection. Since this is baseball season, he was seen warming up with his lawyer, playing catch. He tweeted to watch his fastball at 110mph as he called his throw, "a strike!"
Now, I get why their stock market is rising. He has sold thousands of potential major league ball players to the US American and National League. Of course, he didn't mean that he was going to strike the protestors, right?
Wednesday, May 3, 2017
Wednesday, April 26, 2017
Medicaid Nation, Our Debt and Tax Cuts
The problems for today's Americans began with LBJ. When he took power, he wanted it all. To him that meant that Communists respect that the US is the number one military nation and within that nation, prosperity for all. This is your basic guns and butter platform.
His problem was how do you pay for it? He didn't want to raise taxes because a recent tax cut was the most successful move by government in a long time. He thought that the prosperity side would generate enough revenue to cover the gun side. Stupid is what stupid does.
To compound the error, Johnson kept the war off the books. This is the most serious aspect. How can someone keep $3 billion a month off the books? He did this for his entire term. The government has been doing illicit ventures ever since except the billions is now trillions! The military is half our budget and it is all waste! Consider all the wasted lives and resources with Korea, Vietnam and now, the Middle East. This is what is wrong with America and our government. The military has too much power and fan angles things to do stuff and spend wildly without approval. They exert too much influence with our government, leaders and the media.
Thank you, Yogi Berra
The above is one half of the equation as to why America, the richest nation ever, is broke. The other half is globalism and the rest falls to Medicaid.
Dear reader, you hear about entitlements as the cause for America's problems. It is true that when LBJ started Medicare that he underestimated the costs. It is not true that it cost too much. Seniors pay into the program and everyone pays into social security. In fact, if the government had not used this money for other ventures like military world policing, the fund would be self-sufficient. The real problem under entitlements rests with Medicaid. Every state in the union is to blame for this problem. There is no money being paid into the program and this is where states put their problem child like mental disease, disability, dementia, nursing care and more.
Did you realize that 21% or one in five Americans receive Medicaid assistance? It provides medical coverage for 4 out of 10 American children. It covers nearly half of all our births. It pays for the care of two-thirds of people in nursing homes. It provides 10 million children and adults with physical or mental disabilities. It helps states with 60% of federal funding and this is all I know. There could be other loophole costs. This is the gorilla in our budget and it is big within our economy. It pays 16% of all personal care in America and it costs 9%(and rising)of federal domestic spending.
Kaiser Survey
Back in 2015 the Kaiser Family Foundation reported this on a survey it took. It found that two-thirds of respondents said that they were covered or knew a family member who was. My question is this: What about their friends? Can you see how this program is growing like a wild weed?
Debt and Future
No need to rehash our national debt, but Trump is going to compound it. Instead of taxing the rich like Obama said he would but didn't do, the Donald is proposing a tax cut with a plan to be revealed later today. Now, the original plan may never be instituted, but it does reveal his thinking. When you add things up like unfunded Medicare and Social Security along with a bigger, bloated military spending and the rising costs for Medicaid, we are doomed financially. He is playing this card now, to influence the Federal Reserve. The market believes he will get his way even if it means severe pain down the road. Why do I say that?
10-Year Treasury
On Monday it was 2.24%. This note is negative compared to inflation, but it is high when compared to the rest of the world which has real negative rates. Would you like some irony? Just two months ago in February, the rate was 2.71% and the Fed raised rates since then. For rates to move this much in a year is a lot never mind in just two months. The market believes rates will stay low for this year. The tax plan and the budget are in limbo, but our national debt keeps climbing which puts our dollar in peril. The borders are open, so not only people but culture is passing through. One sad import that they bring is the banana republic. Can you say, Welfare Nation?
His problem was how do you pay for it? He didn't want to raise taxes because a recent tax cut was the most successful move by government in a long time. He thought that the prosperity side would generate enough revenue to cover the gun side. Stupid is what stupid does.
To compound the error, Johnson kept the war off the books. This is the most serious aspect. How can someone keep $3 billion a month off the books? He did this for his entire term. The government has been doing illicit ventures ever since except the billions is now trillions! The military is half our budget and it is all waste! Consider all the wasted lives and resources with Korea, Vietnam and now, the Middle East. This is what is wrong with America and our government. The military has too much power and fan angles things to do stuff and spend wildly without approval. They exert too much influence with our government, leaders and the media.
Thank you, Yogi Berra
The above is one half of the equation as to why America, the richest nation ever, is broke. The other half is globalism and the rest falls to Medicaid.
Dear reader, you hear about entitlements as the cause for America's problems. It is true that when LBJ started Medicare that he underestimated the costs. It is not true that it cost too much. Seniors pay into the program and everyone pays into social security. In fact, if the government had not used this money for other ventures like military world policing, the fund would be self-sufficient. The real problem under entitlements rests with Medicaid. Every state in the union is to blame for this problem. There is no money being paid into the program and this is where states put their problem child like mental disease, disability, dementia, nursing care and more.
Did you realize that 21% or one in five Americans receive Medicaid assistance? It provides medical coverage for 4 out of 10 American children. It covers nearly half of all our births. It pays for the care of two-thirds of people in nursing homes. It provides 10 million children and adults with physical or mental disabilities. It helps states with 60% of federal funding and this is all I know. There could be other loophole costs. This is the gorilla in our budget and it is big within our economy. It pays 16% of all personal care in America and it costs 9%(and rising)of federal domestic spending.
Kaiser Survey
Back in 2015 the Kaiser Family Foundation reported this on a survey it took. It found that two-thirds of respondents said that they were covered or knew a family member who was. My question is this: What about their friends? Can you see how this program is growing like a wild weed?
Debt and Future
No need to rehash our national debt, but Trump is going to compound it. Instead of taxing the rich like Obama said he would but didn't do, the Donald is proposing a tax cut with a plan to be revealed later today. Now, the original plan may never be instituted, but it does reveal his thinking. When you add things up like unfunded Medicare and Social Security along with a bigger, bloated military spending and the rising costs for Medicaid, we are doomed financially. He is playing this card now, to influence the Federal Reserve. The market believes he will get his way even if it means severe pain down the road. Why do I say that?
10-Year Treasury
On Monday it was 2.24%. This note is negative compared to inflation, but it is high when compared to the rest of the world which has real negative rates. Would you like some irony? Just two months ago in February, the rate was 2.71% and the Fed raised rates since then. For rates to move this much in a year is a lot never mind in just two months. The market believes rates will stay low for this year. The tax plan and the budget are in limbo, but our national debt keeps climbing which puts our dollar in peril. The borders are open, so not only people but culture is passing through. One sad import that they bring is the banana republic. Can you say, Welfare Nation?
Tuesday, April 18, 2017
This Should be on 60 Minutes
I begin every business day by going to Bloomberg to check the price of commodities and the release of data on the economic calendar. What has caught my attention is the disconnect between press releases on retail store closings with the loss of jobs for all their employees and the government's weekly stat on employment.
Now, I realize that an announcement of a store closing and the actual closing could be months from that release date even up to a year. In addition, periodically, some states do estimates for unemployment because they cannot meet the timeline to gather their information. However, I began adding up the math during the Obama administration and now, the Trump administration to the announcements of corporate store closing with the government agency reports and it don't jive!
This is the last three reports on employment by the government.
February: -12K and continuous claims at 234K
March : 20K new claims and continuous claims at 243K
April : -1K and continuous claims at 234K
What It Means
The totals point to only 7K new claims in the last three months and unemployment is down to 4.5%, according to the government. Do you know what I think? I think that they have developed a new system to the confusing system that was already in place because we have 66 million people in this country who are not counted. They are just listed as not in the participation workforce. This number is more than half of our working population. It is the only figure that answers the question why retail is dying. It is not just Amazon and online purchases. The total number of sales in that method is still only 14% of the pie.
Closer Look
It was reported in March that 22,000 jobs were lost in general merchandise. Then, there was another 13,000 lost at department stores, and finally, another 6,000 in apparel shops. The way I was taught math, this adds up to 41,000 people out of work and only 20K was registered for March by the government. See what I mean?
Now, I know certain job classifications like waitresses, real estate sales, cab drivers and similar do not qualify for unemployment benefits because they don't make enough to meet guidelines, but things are still not kosher. Keep in mind that all those people are broke and some are still included as being in the workforce. That's the government.
Big $Numbers
Keep this in the equation. Since I only know the retail industry for data, now consider all the other industries because commercial bankruptcies have jumped 28% and personal filings have soared 40%. In the fourth quarter, auto delinquencies are approaching the same level as the disaster of 2008 at $23.27Billion. By the way, auto sales have declined the last three straight months and the shadow of 3.6 million leased cars are returning to lots for sale.
It Gets Worse
We know the malls are dying a slow death because their anchors are shutting in record numbers. Consider the following: Sears, Macy's, and J.C. Penny are all closing at least 100 stores this year. How many thousands of jobs will be lost with just those three? The total number of store closings is scary as 2,900 locations have closed from 18 different retailers and a possible 8,700 more by the end of the year. If you didn't know, cashiers and retail salespeople are the two largest job categories in the US with over 8 million employed between them. This represents 25% of all jobs in America. There have been 9 retail bankruptcies in 2017 so far, and sadly, that already matches the total for 2016. Adding to the negative vibe, retail has declined the last two months
We already know Radio Shack has gone the way of the Doo-doo bird and HHGregg will soon be in the list. They announced that they will close all 220 of their stores and layoff 5,000 people in the process. Keep that number in your head as we read the reports on claims for the rest of the year because unemployment at 4.5% is one big lie!
Now, I realize that an announcement of a store closing and the actual closing could be months from that release date even up to a year. In addition, periodically, some states do estimates for unemployment because they cannot meet the timeline to gather their information. However, I began adding up the math during the Obama administration and now, the Trump administration to the announcements of corporate store closing with the government agency reports and it don't jive!
This is the last three reports on employment by the government.
February: -12K and continuous claims at 234K
March : 20K new claims and continuous claims at 243K
April : -1K and continuous claims at 234K
What It Means
The totals point to only 7K new claims in the last three months and unemployment is down to 4.5%, according to the government. Do you know what I think? I think that they have developed a new system to the confusing system that was already in place because we have 66 million people in this country who are not counted. They are just listed as not in the participation workforce. This number is more than half of our working population. It is the only figure that answers the question why retail is dying. It is not just Amazon and online purchases. The total number of sales in that method is still only 14% of the pie.
Closer Look
It was reported in March that 22,000 jobs were lost in general merchandise. Then, there was another 13,000 lost at department stores, and finally, another 6,000 in apparel shops. The way I was taught math, this adds up to 41,000 people out of work and only 20K was registered for March by the government. See what I mean?
Now, I know certain job classifications like waitresses, real estate sales, cab drivers and similar do not qualify for unemployment benefits because they don't make enough to meet guidelines, but things are still not kosher. Keep in mind that all those people are broke and some are still included as being in the workforce. That's the government.
Big $Numbers
Keep this in the equation. Since I only know the retail industry for data, now consider all the other industries because commercial bankruptcies have jumped 28% and personal filings have soared 40%. In the fourth quarter, auto delinquencies are approaching the same level as the disaster of 2008 at $23.27Billion. By the way, auto sales have declined the last three straight months and the shadow of 3.6 million leased cars are returning to lots for sale.
It Gets Worse
We know the malls are dying a slow death because their anchors are shutting in record numbers. Consider the following: Sears, Macy's, and J.C. Penny are all closing at least 100 stores this year. How many thousands of jobs will be lost with just those three? The total number of store closings is scary as 2,900 locations have closed from 18 different retailers and a possible 8,700 more by the end of the year. If you didn't know, cashiers and retail salespeople are the two largest job categories in the US with over 8 million employed between them. This represents 25% of all jobs in America. There have been 9 retail bankruptcies in 2017 so far, and sadly, that already matches the total for 2016. Adding to the negative vibe, retail has declined the last two months
We already know Radio Shack has gone the way of the Doo-doo bird and HHGregg will soon be in the list. They announced that they will close all 220 of their stores and layoff 5,000 people in the process. Keep that number in your head as we read the reports on claims for the rest of the year because unemployment at 4.5% is one big lie!
Tuesday, April 11, 2017
Message To Trump
Hey, Donald, you are headed the same way as Obama. When he first took office, his party was the majority in Congress and he failed to get any of his campaign promises into law. He wasted his time by attempting to receive bi-partisan support. Now, let's look at you.
In-action
Do you know what your fellow American citizens read and hear everyday from your administration? Gossip! Nonsense!
We hear about the conflicted aspects of your financial investments and how they can cause the look of impropriety. We hear how you hire only the rich who cannot relate to the rest of us. You say that they are the best. We see them as people who use lobbyists and other means of influence for self interest. We hear how you mix your immediate family like your daughter or extended like your son-in-law and friends with confidential data. Then, you complain about leaks, spies, hacks and tapped phones.
Bring in the clowns! There is the circus: Bannon in, Bannon out. Nunes in, Nunes out. Will so-an-so pass Congressional approval? You need two more Fed appointees. Will you choose an easy money type for your stimulus package or a deficit hawk to stop the debt that could send us all into an economic collapse. In addition, the word surfaces about conflict within your cabinet. So, what do you do? You seize a geopolitical opportunity to which the military whispered into your ear...
Syria
Yeah, a good war against another hated dictator will unite everyone behind you and end all these little distractions. They are misleading you like they misled Bush and Obama. This is the status quo along with the "Deep State" taking you off what got you elected.
Election
You were elected by men and women who are sick and tired of us policing the world while ours falls apart. Many of these people probably did not vote in recent elections because Washington is out of touch with what matters, the economy and the pursuit of happiness. These votes were enough to get you over the hump. Not the Russians! Not with the help of your fellow Republicans! Just US citizens who can relate to what you said, "We have been losing our lunch to China, to NAFTA, and every trade deal." That you would end it one way or another, either by renegotiating or end the deal. That is your primary promise and that is why you won. So, stop letting every little comment become a distraction that consumes your time. Instead, concentrate on reading the fine print in those thousand page agreements and find an area to redo and do that. If you can't work within the framework of these deals, end them. Get back to focusing on your victory pledge and stop being led into inactivity by defending your ego. Your honeymoon is almost over. These distractions are being engineered by your enemies, the status quo. Wake up! It's the economy.
In-action
Do you know what your fellow American citizens read and hear everyday from your administration? Gossip! Nonsense!
We hear about the conflicted aspects of your financial investments and how they can cause the look of impropriety. We hear how you hire only the rich who cannot relate to the rest of us. You say that they are the best. We see them as people who use lobbyists and other means of influence for self interest. We hear how you mix your immediate family like your daughter or extended like your son-in-law and friends with confidential data. Then, you complain about leaks, spies, hacks and tapped phones.
Bring in the clowns! There is the circus: Bannon in, Bannon out. Nunes in, Nunes out. Will so-an-so pass Congressional approval? You need two more Fed appointees. Will you choose an easy money type for your stimulus package or a deficit hawk to stop the debt that could send us all into an economic collapse. In addition, the word surfaces about conflict within your cabinet. So, what do you do? You seize a geopolitical opportunity to which the military whispered into your ear...
Syria
Yeah, a good war against another hated dictator will unite everyone behind you and end all these little distractions. They are misleading you like they misled Bush and Obama. This is the status quo along with the "Deep State" taking you off what got you elected.
Election
You were elected by men and women who are sick and tired of us policing the world while ours falls apart. Many of these people probably did not vote in recent elections because Washington is out of touch with what matters, the economy and the pursuit of happiness. These votes were enough to get you over the hump. Not the Russians! Not with the help of your fellow Republicans! Just US citizens who can relate to what you said, "We have been losing our lunch to China, to NAFTA, and every trade deal." That you would end it one way or another, either by renegotiating or end the deal. That is your primary promise and that is why you won. So, stop letting every little comment become a distraction that consumes your time. Instead, concentrate on reading the fine print in those thousand page agreements and find an area to redo and do that. If you can't work within the framework of these deals, end them. Get back to focusing on your victory pledge and stop being led into inactivity by defending your ego. Your honeymoon is almost over. These distractions are being engineered by your enemies, the status quo. Wake up! It's the economy.
Wednesday, April 5, 2017
Risk Takers Going Hi-Tech
If I asked you to choose between two people, one a casino employer in Las Vegas and the other a farmer in rural America, who is the gambler? Who would you pick? The answer is the farmer. Yes, the employee could place a wager from time-to-time, but year in and out, farmers are the ultimate gambler.
Crystal ball
Farmers always have to lookout into the future to figure commodity prices, costs for each type of crop, growing season with climate and water. They will need crop insurance for a harvest many months from the day they begin planting. They truly have to know when to "hold'em and fold'em."
Calvary
Help is on the way. Hi-tech is going up the country and at the Agri-Tech Summit(yes, farmers have a hi-tech summit) new devices and gadgets were revealed. This is not new news as the big boys like DuPont, Dow and Monsanto have dominated the field for years with special GMO seeds, fertilizers and water measuring devices, but the demand is so great that startups are entering into the fray. One reason is the big boys want a big return, and are not interested in smaller markets. This is exactly where the new players are entering.
Dog Collars for Cows
Connecterra and Y Combinator are two firms with that approach cows with collars. It is like Fitbit for cows. These smart collars can detect diseases entering the cows food chain and treat them before it gets dangerous. They also monitor ovulation cycles to breed in a more smoothly manner or to find a wondering herd.
Of course, the big boys do not want to lose dollars and market share. Monsanto and Dow have developed funds to meet farmers needs and the application of technology. They started venture capital programs for tech to assist farmers. With that said, the old return factor still looms large. This is why farmers can relate to newer, risk taking companies like Drone Deploy. This firm uses drones to check pastures which saves time and wages. They are getting their shot. Drone Deploy also makes software to map out fields and that follow the growing season.
Another new company is Blue River Technology. They use cameras and computers to harvest crops more efficiently.
All these smaller firms can make adjustments on the fly, and they are quick to the market. It is why they are getting their market niche. They don't have the burden of higher management dictating company policy. This is an inside plus since farmers talk to each other and the word gets out. That point was not missed by another startup, Farmers Business Network. They answer challenges presented by farmers like hiring a sales force. They place their resources to the farmer both physically and online, virtually.
As for myself, I prefer Caribbean poker, but we all get hungry. The bottom line: From smart collars for cows, drones that map pastures, to online and virtual reality, hi-tech is in the farming business.
Crystal ball
Farmers always have to lookout into the future to figure commodity prices, costs for each type of crop, growing season with climate and water. They will need crop insurance for a harvest many months from the day they begin planting. They truly have to know when to "hold'em and fold'em."
Calvary
Help is on the way. Hi-tech is going up the country and at the Agri-Tech Summit(yes, farmers have a hi-tech summit) new devices and gadgets were revealed. This is not new news as the big boys like DuPont, Dow and Monsanto have dominated the field for years with special GMO seeds, fertilizers and water measuring devices, but the demand is so great that startups are entering into the fray. One reason is the big boys want a big return, and are not interested in smaller markets. This is exactly where the new players are entering.
Dog Collars for Cows
Connecterra and Y Combinator are two firms with that approach cows with collars. It is like Fitbit for cows. These smart collars can detect diseases entering the cows food chain and treat them before it gets dangerous. They also monitor ovulation cycles to breed in a more smoothly manner or to find a wondering herd.
Of course, the big boys do not want to lose dollars and market share. Monsanto and Dow have developed funds to meet farmers needs and the application of technology. They started venture capital programs for tech to assist farmers. With that said, the old return factor still looms large. This is why farmers can relate to newer, risk taking companies like Drone Deploy. This firm uses drones to check pastures which saves time and wages. They are getting their shot. Drone Deploy also makes software to map out fields and that follow the growing season.
Another new company is Blue River Technology. They use cameras and computers to harvest crops more efficiently.
All these smaller firms can make adjustments on the fly, and they are quick to the market. It is why they are getting their market niche. They don't have the burden of higher management dictating company policy. This is an inside plus since farmers talk to each other and the word gets out. That point was not missed by another startup, Farmers Business Network. They answer challenges presented by farmers like hiring a sales force. They place their resources to the farmer both physically and online, virtually.
As for myself, I prefer Caribbean poker, but we all get hungry. The bottom line: From smart collars for cows, drones that map pastures, to online and virtual reality, hi-tech is in the farming business.
Wednesday, March 29, 2017
Stock Market: Could Be Lumbering, Staggering, Stumbling,
...in the near future. "Come on, Sebastian! The market hits new highs month-after-month," you yell. In a normal rally, you would be correct, Sir as Ed would say to Johnny on the late night show, but this is a rally of expectation and the P/E ratio's are getting some influential people nervous. Then, you add this little survey that I will share with you and you can better prepare. By the way, this survey was concluded after the last Fed rate hike.
Report
This survey was conducted by Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Fund Manager. The results show a record number of professional investors have concerns about the market. Speaking about the results of the survey, Michael Hartnett said,"34% of professionals, which is the most in 17 years, find the market overvalued. People are jumping in because they see gains and do not want to miss the move with little else to park their money."
Of course, if I was there, I would've suggested precious metals which are up 8% this year and with their money that could easily double, but outside of this blog, I am an unknown.
Anyway, Hartnett goes on to say, "There is also the new doubt that rising interest rates will make bonds look better and then, equities could take a hit. Investors feel that a rate of 3.5% on a 10-Year Treasury to be the inflection point."
Cash
The other aspect of this survey is cash. It is the most watched indicator in global investing. The inflection point here is if cash is below 4%, that equals greed. Buying is coming. If cash is above 5%, that equals fear. Selling and tightening is coming. At present, cash is 4.8%, and falling, but closer to tightening due to the high price of stocks.
So, if my brother, Sebastian is crazy, JFL says, "Crazy like a fox."
Report
This survey was conducted by Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Fund Manager. The results show a record number of professional investors have concerns about the market. Speaking about the results of the survey, Michael Hartnett said,"34% of professionals, which is the most in 17 years, find the market overvalued. People are jumping in because they see gains and do not want to miss the move with little else to park their money."
Of course, if I was there, I would've suggested precious metals which are up 8% this year and with their money that could easily double, but outside of this blog, I am an unknown.
Anyway, Hartnett goes on to say, "There is also the new doubt that rising interest rates will make bonds look better and then, equities could take a hit. Investors feel that a rate of 3.5% on a 10-Year Treasury to be the inflection point."
Cash
The other aspect of this survey is cash. It is the most watched indicator in global investing. The inflection point here is if cash is below 4%, that equals greed. Buying is coming. If cash is above 5%, that equals fear. Selling and tightening is coming. At present, cash is 4.8%, and falling, but closer to tightening due to the high price of stocks.
So, if my brother, Sebastian is crazy, JFL says, "Crazy like a fox."
Wednesday, March 22, 2017
Death of Sovereign Rights
The foolhardy reason why the corporate world backs trade agreements is that it allows them to seek further profits with local governments who will back their endeavors even allowing local environmental harm. This is the evil side of capitalism because in seeking those profits, the actions of the company could cause harm to the region where they operate. Companies do not ledger an account for harm only litigation fees and insurance. This is why in my unpublished book, I advocate a three strikes and liquidate policy for corporations who commit three felonies against society. If we can punish for war crimes, we should be able to punish for corporate crimes. The bankers who caused the crisis of 2008 would hate me because I would ban them from operating in any banking enterprise for their sin. Of course, I would find them too, and $BIG. In addition, every bank who participated in the scheme would have one strike against them. But hey, that's me. I'm getting off the topic. However, I also use the meme in my work, "All things are connected." Now, you can understand my thinking.
TPP
We now know where the Donald stands on the Trans-Pacific Partnership. President Obama tried to pass it in the lame duck Congress. He has such a big ego that he can't see past it. The TPP like all trade agreements is anti-sovereign in nature. This is the main central point to these deals and why they are negotiated behind closed doors. It is the same reason why NAFTA, CAFTA, WTO and the IMF have such power. They took it from the every nation. It is the thinking of the One World people. The only good news in 2016 was the surprise results that opposed the thinking of the One World powers-to-be. With that said, the behind the scenes strength in that organization needs to be exposed and opposed. It is the reason why the Keystone XL pipeline got the "go" pass and the Sioux Nation lost in their battle in the Dakota's. No matter what Trump says in public, he knew that NAFTA would win in court. And get this, when NAFTA won, they could've got repaid all their legal fees from the US taxpayer. That is the cost of the loss of sovereign rights.
Small Print
The NAFTA trade agreement not only kills American workers, it circumvents American law. There is a clause in small print that takes away our ability as citizens to protect our workers and environment. It is this clause that Trans Canada knew could overturn any opposition in their planned pipeline. The clause automatically sends the case to a tribunal court. It is called, "Investor-State Dispute Settlement."
There are three judges. One from the corporation. Guess where he is going to vote? One from the opposing party which puts the deciding vote from the NAFTA appointed judge. Simple. We lose! Dear reader, it doesn't matter what local laws are on the books, they have no barring. Now, you know what an ego President Clinton has and how he has harmed our nation. He signed NAFTA. So far, Trump just says he wants deals to be renegotiated, but he never gives details like the hidden clause, Investor-State Dispute Settlement.
It gets worse...
under the agreement, if the opposing party loses, and now you know the system is rigged, that nation or party will have to cough up the court fees for the company that was opposed. In the case of the Keystone pipeline, the US taxpayer could get hit with a $15 billion cost. It is this clause that mega companies use to push ahead their deals like in Ecuador. The small third world nation could not afford their expensive court case. They ended up losing and the nation got hit with a $31 million court fees. How do you think the people of Ecuador feel about trade deals? How do you think the Sioux Nation feels about this corruption and another blow to Native Americans?
Will of the people...
Our founding fathers wanted to form a more perfect union and they feared a too big central government. It is why they had state rights in their thinking. Our federal government has circumvented state rights. Now, bureaucrats have circumvented central government. This is why we should drop all trade deals, drop out of the WTO and even NATO. For example, if Trump gets a stimulus infrastructure bill passed, he cannot state that all products like steel, concrete, etc. are American made. The WTO would sue us and they would win! The present make-up of all transactions limits or denies any protectionist measures. It is why I say, "All things are connected." It is another reason why we lost jobs and our standard of living has declined. This in turn lowers state revenues which means less money for our schools, roads and environment. This is the negative spiral that bureaucrats and the One World people have put on our nation.
TPP
We now know where the Donald stands on the Trans-Pacific Partnership. President Obama tried to pass it in the lame duck Congress. He has such a big ego that he can't see past it. The TPP like all trade agreements is anti-sovereign in nature. This is the main central point to these deals and why they are negotiated behind closed doors. It is the same reason why NAFTA, CAFTA, WTO and the IMF have such power. They took it from the every nation. It is the thinking of the One World people. The only good news in 2016 was the surprise results that opposed the thinking of the One World powers-to-be. With that said, the behind the scenes strength in that organization needs to be exposed and opposed. It is the reason why the Keystone XL pipeline got the "go" pass and the Sioux Nation lost in their battle in the Dakota's. No matter what Trump says in public, he knew that NAFTA would win in court. And get this, when NAFTA won, they could've got repaid all their legal fees from the US taxpayer. That is the cost of the loss of sovereign rights.
Small Print
The NAFTA trade agreement not only kills American workers, it circumvents American law. There is a clause in small print that takes away our ability as citizens to protect our workers and environment. It is this clause that Trans Canada knew could overturn any opposition in their planned pipeline. The clause automatically sends the case to a tribunal court. It is called, "Investor-State Dispute Settlement."
There are three judges. One from the corporation. Guess where he is going to vote? One from the opposing party which puts the deciding vote from the NAFTA appointed judge. Simple. We lose! Dear reader, it doesn't matter what local laws are on the books, they have no barring. Now, you know what an ego President Clinton has and how he has harmed our nation. He signed NAFTA. So far, Trump just says he wants deals to be renegotiated, but he never gives details like the hidden clause, Investor-State Dispute Settlement.
It gets worse...
under the agreement, if the opposing party loses, and now you know the system is rigged, that nation or party will have to cough up the court fees for the company that was opposed. In the case of the Keystone pipeline, the US taxpayer could get hit with a $15 billion cost. It is this clause that mega companies use to push ahead their deals like in Ecuador. The small third world nation could not afford their expensive court case. They ended up losing and the nation got hit with a $31 million court fees. How do you think the people of Ecuador feel about trade deals? How do you think the Sioux Nation feels about this corruption and another blow to Native Americans?
Will of the people...
Our founding fathers wanted to form a more perfect union and they feared a too big central government. It is why they had state rights in their thinking. Our federal government has circumvented state rights. Now, bureaucrats have circumvented central government. This is why we should drop all trade deals, drop out of the WTO and even NATO. For example, if Trump gets a stimulus infrastructure bill passed, he cannot state that all products like steel, concrete, etc. are American made. The WTO would sue us and they would win! The present make-up of all transactions limits or denies any protectionist measures. It is why I say, "All things are connected." It is another reason why we lost jobs and our standard of living has declined. This in turn lowers state revenues which means less money for our schools, roads and environment. This is the negative spiral that bureaucrats and the One World people have put on our nation.
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