Beware: The Ides of March
Ever since Trump enacted on his campaign pledge to protect American workers from the ravages of global trade where every nation takes advantage of the US by exploiting our economy for their own benefit, world stock markets and global trade partners have been up in arms. Why, I ask? Who is the tax on?
The moment after Trump signed to enact tariffs on steel and aluminum, the loophole surfaced. The exemption could take place after a summited negotiation in other words, no tariff to you. This is the perfect example of what is wrong with our democracy in our time. For example, you have a great idea. You offer a bill to Congress. Then, every member agrees with you...if you opt out to help my state. Then, lobbyist approach you with money to exclude so-and-so and what does America get? A watered-down bill done in a half-ass manner that does more harm than good. This is what Trump has done. I love him for trying, but doing things in a half-ass manner is no help. It gets worse.
First, he added that Canada and Mexico were exempt under NAFTA. A week later, Trump included the EU to the exempt list. Keep in mind, that the so-called tariffs will not go into effect until a 30-day period of transition. In the meantime, Japan and others seek to be included in the exempt category. So, I ask,
who is the tariff on?
Meanwhile, Trump signed the bill to keep the government funded. This cost taxpayers $1.3 trillion and it is only good for six months! In addition, the global vandals dumped excess amount of their crap on us to which our present account deficit is up 26% in the current year. Whatever deficits were projected, now they are on course to be 26% higher. I say, no exemptions for anyone!
Beat Goes On...
The Fed raised interest rates a whole quarter point, Whoopee! But, they still claim that their inflation target of 2% has not been reached. Oh, really? Consider this reality...
General Mills reported earnings. In their statement they said higher shipping costs and higher food costs effected profits.
In report after report from construction builders, statements repeat this message: We saw higher materials costs, faced higher wages and the price of land not to mention the cost of regulations.
Housing report said the cost of a new home is up another 10% from a year ago at $326,000. I know one thing. I can't afford one!
Midland, Texas is booming due to higher oil prices. Hotel bookings are up as well as hotel rates. They doubled from 2016. This is ground zero to dig for oil, especially shale.
Enter Weather
The northeast has had the worst snow season in 130 years. This will bust state and city budgets. However, the biggest economic effect will be felt by the airlines. There were over 10,000 flight cancellations up to now for the month of March. However, fixed costs still had to be paid. In addition, the airlines faced higher fuel costs as oil has rallied on the rumor that Trump may end the Iran nuclear deal. Our economy is doing well and that alone caused oil to rally. Citizens everywhere face higher gasoline costs, heating oil costs and Trump has indicated that he wants to increase the federal gas tax. Not looking good. Hey, new Fed guy, Powell, did you read this?
Now, I stated above that the EU were exempt from the new tariff by Trump, but the EU in seeking revenues like all governments, has enacted a tax on technology to which they claim has nothing to do with a tariff retaliation. We should say and do similar to EU companies. A billion here, a billion there and maybe we could start to cut our deficits?
Speaking of technology, Facebook screwed up. Their selling of personal data for their personal gain has hit the fan. Regulations will come along with taxes on technology unless the technology lobbyists offer more money to re-elect our so-called leaders.
Tit-for-Tat
Of course, this will happen. Trump should realize that the US is the trump card. No nation could afford to lose their market niche in our economy. He should stay tough. Show some cojones! China said that they will target $3 billion in new tariffs to selected targets. Yeah, screw you, you phonies! In reality, China is the poster child for protectionism. Their companies are state sponsored which gives them an endless piggybank, favorable regulations and the most outrageous environment for foreign companies operating in China. They must be called Chinese companies. So, Intel in China is a Chinese company. The same for Apple, Mercedes, whomever. By the way, this is a distortion of world GDP. Foreign entities on sales and production is counted in China as Chinese, while at the same time, the same results are counted back in their nation of origin. Anyway, China forces every company to disclose all company intellectual knowledge and then, they steal it. SCREW THEM! In their retaliation, they selected political swing states and the products that these states export like Ohio and Wisconsin. They also indicated that they might target airlines, autos, soybeans and pork. They even hinted that they may buy less US bonds. I say, BRING IT ON!
Enter the Shills...
It didn't take long for the shills in our society to get their say on the matter. That is almost a sick joke. We know where they stand. They just try to camouflaged their position. They are saying that we should not attempt to protect old industries like steel and coal, but new alternative industries like solar and wind. If you stop and just read their message, it sounds legit. It isn't. It is misdirection. I say that we protect everything and after the dust settles, see what is best for our future and exempt the rest. Trump, stay the course! No exemptions! Just look around! Our retail industry is dying like Toys 'R Us. They are closing all their stores and 33,000 people will be looking for work. I repeat, No Exemptions!
Wednesday, March 28, 2018
Wednesday, March 21, 2018
Enter Kudlow...for Now
President Trump fired Cohn and hired Kudlow as the top economic adviser. His administration is taking on a scary resemblance to Trump's reality TV show, The Apprentice. When that TV show first aired, it had a similar tone to the then, New York Yankee owner, George Steinbrenner. George was noted for his rash decisions on his employees, "You were hired to be fired." As president, Trump is like his reality program with the "Donald's" signature line, "You're fired!" This is his tone as president.
Enter Kudlow
President Trump says Kudlow and he are a perfect blend. This will be good for America. This is pure BS! Why, you ask? Because Kudlow has been around a long time with a book, media exposure, worked on Wall St. and past administrations - all Republican.
Before I jump on this too-bit shill, let me refresh you with his past proclamation's and predictions.
As stated above, he has worked with Laffer when Laffer was the top dog for the Reagan presidency. His economic wisdom was caught under this slogan, "trickle down effect." This meant tax cuts for the rich even though it ballooned our national deficit. The act would cause money to circulate all the way down to ordinary citizens. The only thing right about it was workers got (trickle) crumbs. This is the era where our factories closed and jobs were outsourced. I say no more!
Kudlow also worked at Bear Stearns. The company went bankrupt! I say no more!
Kudlow also worked for the Fed. He loves the easy money, although he says he is for a strong dollar. Just recently, he urged the new Fed chairman to go very slow and even pause with rate hikes. Now, rate hikes would strengthen the dollar, but stopping those hikes or even pauses, let's the market digest our horrible deficits. Not good. As this example shows, he denies the truth of easy, fiat money. He speaks from both sides of his mouth. Too bad our native Americans don't get media exposure because their expression nails it, "Speaks with a forked tongue."
He counseled the Bush administration. He advocated in 2002 to attack Iraq and take out Saddam Hussein because they had weapons of mass destruction. They posed an immediate danger to us and the world. This was pure BS, but what he was doing was shill work. He toyed with American thinking and public opinion. He laced the ground work for Bush to begin the Iraqi War in March 2003. It gets worse.
Kudlow Prediction
When the war started, Kudlow had his voice reach our homes through his job at CNBC. He had a feature called, "Kudlow Report." He predicted that the war would end quickly. Wrong!
He said that the Iraqi citizens would be glad that Saddam was gone; they would gladly use their oil to repay us for the cost of the war. Wrong! Not only wrong, but pure BS!
The man is a shill for war mongers, defense contractors and a real danger for us and the world. I'm sorry. This type of person, an entrenched status quo, gets me sick and thus, sometimes a combative ego arises to put him in his place. Continuing...
From CNBC in 2007, he declared that there was no danger of a recession. Even as late as July 2008, he repeated his claim. Totally wrong!
He supported the Bush tax cuts even as they pushed our national deficit into the trillion dollar category. Even as housing recovered under president Obama, he said housing would collapse again.
Wrong!
He supported the Trump candidacy, but cautioned the idea of tariffs. He said that they would be bad for trade. In addition, during this pre-election cycle, he claimed that Fed chair-person, Janet Yellen, needed to act on inflation. Inflation would damage the economy. He was wrong, although correct if food, energy and housing were including in the inflation mix to determine its level. By the way, he doesn't include those necessities. The only economic prediction that he had right was claim that if Trump won, the markets would rise. Correct!
Conclusion:
The man is a globalist. If Trump is for America, this is pure conflict. He claims to be on board with Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum. However, he is against tariffs in general. This means he is for globalization which is destroying our workers and our standard of living. By the way, our national deficit topped $21 trillion to which I predicted would happen this year. Do you remember Bush declaring that we would have a surplus going forward? And by now? Kudlow endorsed his tax cuts when Bush was president and he agreed to this BS prediction. Keep in mind that this also means he is against unions and worker's protections. He is for the status quo, the greedy and not for what is best for America. He is destined to be FIRED!
And the beat goes on...
Enter Kudlow
President Trump says Kudlow and he are a perfect blend. This will be good for America. This is pure BS! Why, you ask? Because Kudlow has been around a long time with a book, media exposure, worked on Wall St. and past administrations - all Republican.
Before I jump on this too-bit shill, let me refresh you with his past proclamation's and predictions.
As stated above, he has worked with Laffer when Laffer was the top dog for the Reagan presidency. His economic wisdom was caught under this slogan, "trickle down effect." This meant tax cuts for the rich even though it ballooned our national deficit. The act would cause money to circulate all the way down to ordinary citizens. The only thing right about it was workers got (trickle) crumbs. This is the era where our factories closed and jobs were outsourced. I say no more!
Kudlow also worked at Bear Stearns. The company went bankrupt! I say no more!
Kudlow also worked for the Fed. He loves the easy money, although he says he is for a strong dollar. Just recently, he urged the new Fed chairman to go very slow and even pause with rate hikes. Now, rate hikes would strengthen the dollar, but stopping those hikes or even pauses, let's the market digest our horrible deficits. Not good. As this example shows, he denies the truth of easy, fiat money. He speaks from both sides of his mouth. Too bad our native Americans don't get media exposure because their expression nails it, "Speaks with a forked tongue."
He counseled the Bush administration. He advocated in 2002 to attack Iraq and take out Saddam Hussein because they had weapons of mass destruction. They posed an immediate danger to us and the world. This was pure BS, but what he was doing was shill work. He toyed with American thinking and public opinion. He laced the ground work for Bush to begin the Iraqi War in March 2003. It gets worse.
Kudlow Prediction
When the war started, Kudlow had his voice reach our homes through his job at CNBC. He had a feature called, "Kudlow Report." He predicted that the war would end quickly. Wrong!
He said that the Iraqi citizens would be glad that Saddam was gone; they would gladly use their oil to repay us for the cost of the war. Wrong! Not only wrong, but pure BS!
The man is a shill for war mongers, defense contractors and a real danger for us and the world. I'm sorry. This type of person, an entrenched status quo, gets me sick and thus, sometimes a combative ego arises to put him in his place. Continuing...
From CNBC in 2007, he declared that there was no danger of a recession. Even as late as July 2008, he repeated his claim. Totally wrong!
He supported the Bush tax cuts even as they pushed our national deficit into the trillion dollar category. Even as housing recovered under president Obama, he said housing would collapse again.
Wrong!
He supported the Trump candidacy, but cautioned the idea of tariffs. He said that they would be bad for trade. In addition, during this pre-election cycle, he claimed that Fed chair-person, Janet Yellen, needed to act on inflation. Inflation would damage the economy. He was wrong, although correct if food, energy and housing were including in the inflation mix to determine its level. By the way, he doesn't include those necessities. The only economic prediction that he had right was claim that if Trump won, the markets would rise. Correct!
Conclusion:
The man is a globalist. If Trump is for America, this is pure conflict. He claims to be on board with Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum. However, he is against tariffs in general. This means he is for globalization which is destroying our workers and our standard of living. By the way, our national deficit topped $21 trillion to which I predicted would happen this year. Do you remember Bush declaring that we would have a surplus going forward? And by now? Kudlow endorsed his tax cuts when Bush was president and he agreed to this BS prediction. Keep in mind that this also means he is against unions and worker's protections. He is for the status quo, the greedy and not for what is best for America. He is destined to be FIRED!
And the beat goes on...
Wednesday, March 14, 2018
Free Trade or Unfair Trade
Let us examine the recent tariff's on steel and aluminum. Today, there is nothing but lies in the so-called free market. If the foundation of modern trading is based on lies, where do we begin?
Gold Standard
When modern nations entered the 20th century, countries traded as today, but the market had a control device in the British pound. The pound was backed by gold which kept currencies stable. This kept an even keel in the ebb and flow of trading. There was little room for currency manipulation until central banks and politicians began to push the envelop of manipulation. In addition, modern industrialization increased production and productivity. This led to undercutting and the undercut tee, to find a solution. These combined actions eroded the value of the pound and the English central bankers panicked. They raised the value of the pound above gold. Idiots!
Then, nation's with fiat money, exchanged their pounds for British gold until the English gave up. They exited the gold standard. This left a vacuum in world trading. As global trading declined, unemployment rose. In seeking to grow exports, countries began to tinker with their export/import policy.
Now, what I have not mentioned in this overall picture is the actual internal process to export or import in the main industrial nations. Every nation, I repeat, every nation except the US, used as a foundation with their largest firms, state support. An exporting company could count on their government for financial support like loans below market rates. They received protective measures in the form of laws and regulations that made importing competition extremely difficult. Then, they added a layer of license procedures and finally, they implemented a standards policy. Now, I will say that the standard policy has value in today's market with GMOs and artificial ingredients, but overall, this is just another level of protectionism.
One aspect that I won't get into in this piece is theft of intellectual property, disregarding of patents and the illegal copy of brand names. In the past Japan didn't respect our patents. S. Korea is always a threat to steal intellectual property, but the clear violator in today's market is China. They steal, copy and even when they receive permission to produce a product, they cut corners by substituting cheaper materials...Back to the historical progression...
Our individual companies were competing against nation backed entities who used fiat money and in the past, we used the gold standard. Our government should never have allowed a convertibility of fiat for gold. One is real and the other is fake. Idiots!
While this occurred, our nation saw a collapse in the stock market. In seeking to bolster jobs through exports and to help American farmers who throughout the 20s suffered with low prices and drought, politicians acted.
Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act
So, in 1930, Congress passed the above act. It heavily favored farmers to export their crops. The global community followed suit with direct taxes on imports along with all their already in place protective measures. World trade declined. The world turned to violence.
WWII
As the war moved into its apparent conclusion, the allied nations held a summit in New Hampshire. In this gathering, the members agreed to make the US dollar that was backed by gold, the new central point to value currencies for market trading. This conference also established the IMF and World Bank. They were suppose to act as a layer to keep market balance in the pluses and minuses of trades between nations. This mechanism held up very well until personal egos with foreign policy among nations caused riffs. The worst were the French and Swedes who demanded US gold for their dollars. As our nation's deficit grew, our politicians panicked. In 1971 president Nixon shocked the world by ending the convertibility of dollars for gold. This killed the gold standard and began our nation into the decent into fiat currency. I could write a book on this section. The US decline from gold really began in 1913 with the formation of the Federal Reserve, but blog space is limited. Bankers are for fiat to which our founding fathers were against. Enough said!
Nixon found an answer in Saudi Arabia. Since oil became crucial to modern economies and it is the most traded commodity, Nixon agreed to back the House of Saud who in turn would only use US dollars in oil. This began the petrol dollars to which today, global nations trade.
China
The oil trading platform held up until the world began to use China to stop inflation at home by importing cheaper products from the Chinese. This is how China surged to lead the world in trading. If our so-called market were free to act, the Chinese money would be so high that no one would take their exports due to the value of their currency. How come it isn't? Because trade is UNFAIR! Also, it is worth mentioning that oil is losing to technology along with geopolitics which will kill the petrol policy of trading.
Conclusion:
The market is not free, but totally out of synch. If one looked at US steel production, it only gets crumbs in world production. At one time, it led in world production. US aluminum was number one too, and today, it only produces 1.2% of world production. I could mention almost every industry. We invented the radio and TV, but state sponsored companies killed our companies. We invented solar, but foreign nations run the industry. We invented the computer, but all production went overseas. The story is the same with textiles, furniture, auto parts and auto manufacturing. Almost every aspect of our once self-sufficient economy is now imported or manufactured somewhere else. It is so bad that we import food. Can you believe that?
In addition, I could mention the many times where nations used their state sponsored companies to dump their product, mainly in the US, to which is in the timeline of our economic decline.
Germany and England in the 70s. They sold steel less than they charged for it at home. This began the rust belt in the US. We lost high paying jobs. This destroyed our unions to which killed labor and this also began our decline in our standard of living. We also have the shills at home and idiots like the Brooking Institute. We now can trace our decline to global trading under the lie of free trade to which the people like Brooking, say yes too. By the way, they never admit that they were wrong. Dear reader, The EU is nothing more than an economic barrier for US exports. NAFTA is nothing more than an exporting machine for Canada and Mexico at our expense and greed. The Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade deal is nothing more than a new fiat layer that will allow foreign nations to lift their standard of living at our expense. Whenever we get into these trade pacts, it is done by lawyers who are shills for fiat currency and greed with no concern for what is best for America. It is always done behind closed doors. Enough said!
Trump is right, but he is giving into pressure. We should tax all imports and suffer with temporary inflation until we can return to a self-efficient country. Then, when the world realizes that they can no longer use us as a dumping ground, we can allow exemptions. However, we should never allow us to be pawns in the hands of global trading who like Jefferson predicted, "our sons will be born into captivity by foreign powers."
Gold Standard
When modern nations entered the 20th century, countries traded as today, but the market had a control device in the British pound. The pound was backed by gold which kept currencies stable. This kept an even keel in the ebb and flow of trading. There was little room for currency manipulation until central banks and politicians began to push the envelop of manipulation. In addition, modern industrialization increased production and productivity. This led to undercutting and the undercut tee, to find a solution. These combined actions eroded the value of the pound and the English central bankers panicked. They raised the value of the pound above gold. Idiots!
Then, nation's with fiat money, exchanged their pounds for British gold until the English gave up. They exited the gold standard. This left a vacuum in world trading. As global trading declined, unemployment rose. In seeking to grow exports, countries began to tinker with their export/import policy.
Now, what I have not mentioned in this overall picture is the actual internal process to export or import in the main industrial nations. Every nation, I repeat, every nation except the US, used as a foundation with their largest firms, state support. An exporting company could count on their government for financial support like loans below market rates. They received protective measures in the form of laws and regulations that made importing competition extremely difficult. Then, they added a layer of license procedures and finally, they implemented a standards policy. Now, I will say that the standard policy has value in today's market with GMOs and artificial ingredients, but overall, this is just another level of protectionism.
One aspect that I won't get into in this piece is theft of intellectual property, disregarding of patents and the illegal copy of brand names. In the past Japan didn't respect our patents. S. Korea is always a threat to steal intellectual property, but the clear violator in today's market is China. They steal, copy and even when they receive permission to produce a product, they cut corners by substituting cheaper materials...Back to the historical progression...
Our individual companies were competing against nation backed entities who used fiat money and in the past, we used the gold standard. Our government should never have allowed a convertibility of fiat for gold. One is real and the other is fake. Idiots!
While this occurred, our nation saw a collapse in the stock market. In seeking to bolster jobs through exports and to help American farmers who throughout the 20s suffered with low prices and drought, politicians acted.
Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act
So, in 1930, Congress passed the above act. It heavily favored farmers to export their crops. The global community followed suit with direct taxes on imports along with all their already in place protective measures. World trade declined. The world turned to violence.
WWII
As the war moved into its apparent conclusion, the allied nations held a summit in New Hampshire. In this gathering, the members agreed to make the US dollar that was backed by gold, the new central point to value currencies for market trading. This conference also established the IMF and World Bank. They were suppose to act as a layer to keep market balance in the pluses and minuses of trades between nations. This mechanism held up very well until personal egos with foreign policy among nations caused riffs. The worst were the French and Swedes who demanded US gold for their dollars. As our nation's deficit grew, our politicians panicked. In 1971 president Nixon shocked the world by ending the convertibility of dollars for gold. This killed the gold standard and began our nation into the decent into fiat currency. I could write a book on this section. The US decline from gold really began in 1913 with the formation of the Federal Reserve, but blog space is limited. Bankers are for fiat to which our founding fathers were against. Enough said!
Nixon found an answer in Saudi Arabia. Since oil became crucial to modern economies and it is the most traded commodity, Nixon agreed to back the House of Saud who in turn would only use US dollars in oil. This began the petrol dollars to which today, global nations trade.
China
The oil trading platform held up until the world began to use China to stop inflation at home by importing cheaper products from the Chinese. This is how China surged to lead the world in trading. If our so-called market were free to act, the Chinese money would be so high that no one would take their exports due to the value of their currency. How come it isn't? Because trade is UNFAIR! Also, it is worth mentioning that oil is losing to technology along with geopolitics which will kill the petrol policy of trading.
Conclusion:
The market is not free, but totally out of synch. If one looked at US steel production, it only gets crumbs in world production. At one time, it led in world production. US aluminum was number one too, and today, it only produces 1.2% of world production. I could mention almost every industry. We invented the radio and TV, but state sponsored companies killed our companies. We invented solar, but foreign nations run the industry. We invented the computer, but all production went overseas. The story is the same with textiles, furniture, auto parts and auto manufacturing. Almost every aspect of our once self-sufficient economy is now imported or manufactured somewhere else. It is so bad that we import food. Can you believe that?
In addition, I could mention the many times where nations used their state sponsored companies to dump their product, mainly in the US, to which is in the timeline of our economic decline.
Germany and England in the 70s. They sold steel less than they charged for it at home. This began the rust belt in the US. We lost high paying jobs. This destroyed our unions to which killed labor and this also began our decline in our standard of living. We also have the shills at home and idiots like the Brooking Institute. We now can trace our decline to global trading under the lie of free trade to which the people like Brooking, say yes too. By the way, they never admit that they were wrong. Dear reader, The EU is nothing more than an economic barrier for US exports. NAFTA is nothing more than an exporting machine for Canada and Mexico at our expense and greed. The Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade deal is nothing more than a new fiat layer that will allow foreign nations to lift their standard of living at our expense. Whenever we get into these trade pacts, it is done by lawyers who are shills for fiat currency and greed with no concern for what is best for America. It is always done behind closed doors. Enough said!
Trump is right, but he is giving into pressure. We should tax all imports and suffer with temporary inflation until we can return to a self-efficient country. Then, when the world realizes that they can no longer use us as a dumping ground, we can allow exemptions. However, we should never allow us to be pawns in the hands of global trading who like Jefferson predicted, "our sons will be born into captivity by foreign powers."
Wednesday, March 7, 2018
READ THIS TRANSCRIPT!
This transcript is from a discussion from the PBS Show, Nightly Business Report. The date was 22cd of February of this year. The host, Tyler Mathisen shows great courage to address a volatile topic and greater character to suggest that as a nation, we are losing our democracy. His guest was Bill George, former CEO of Medtronic(MDT) and a senior fellow at Harvard's Business School.
Dear reader, I have stated many times that our government is corrupt as it condescends the people under a label of populism. They do not listen to us and this is why I call for the creation of a new third party. The original platform will stand for peace as a nation. We will no longer be the police force for the world. We will only enact laws that protect American workers with the ideas of the constitution to "promote the general welfare in the pursuit of happiness." We will strive to return to the gold standard and we begin by demanding a balanced budget every year. There are many other issues facing America, but our nation needs a starting point and the LIBERTY PARTY is it.
Discussion
Tyler: The school shooting in Florida last week has refocused many controversial discussions and conversations in America. One of them is the power that industries and their lobbyists have over the nation's political process.
I don't know whether you happened to see the CNN town hall last night. But at one point during the discussion, one of the questioners asked one of the senators, I believe it was Mr. Rubio, this basic question. If the NRA has such power over the political process in the US, they being an arm of an industry, the gun manufacturing industry, is democracy broken?
And I suppose you could ask a similar question about the pharmaceutical business, which has tremendous power over drug policy in the country and drug pricing in this country. Or you could ask a similar question about the banking business and its power over regulators and Congress.
Talk me through this one. Do companies and their lobbying arms control our democracy to too great a degree today?
Bill: Well, I certainly think they do in the case of the school shootings. The NRA has enormous power, Tyler. And it's very discouraging to me when over 80 percent of the American public is urging restrictions on assault weapons and yet you see that Congress seems hamstrung to act. I'm not optimistic they will.
And frankly, I'm urging CEOs to get out there and organize in their local communities, with their mayors, their city councils, get the state legislatures and governors involved, and take action locally. I'm much more optimistic of that.
After all, these are our children. These are our employees and their families. And these are our communities. And the obligation we all have as CEOs to protect our local communities and to make sure that our students are safe.
I do feel like this time it's different. We are at a tipping point perhaps in the thinking of the American public. But, I think we are going to get more action locally to make schools safe and to take of guns coming in school. I think it's horrible.
Tyler: Let me come back to my earlier thesis if I might just a little bit.
Bill: O.K.
Tyler: And that is the idea that I think a lot of voters, individuals, feel as though the system works for large corporate interests, but doesn't work for the general population, and because there is so much corporate money or PAC money flowing in to the pockets, the coffers, the campaign committees of men and women who run for the House or Congress or Senate or state legislation, that people have lost control of their government at the expense of corporate interests.
Bill: Well, there is truth in that. Ever since Citizen United, it isn't just corporate interests, Tyler. It's individual wealthy donors are giving huge, hundreds of millions of dollars or more to political campaigns because we took all those restrictions off. Yes, I think it's having too much influence.
And I do think that our congressmen and women and senators need to be listening to the people. I'm delighted to see the students stepping up and lobbying. I think the parents have to go with them to do that to do that. But that's still going to be a long pull. We have come a long way to give too much power to moneyed interests.
I think we have got to change that as a country and get it back to a democracy and stop listening to all the lobbyists. There is so much power in our lobbyists throughout the country. But nowhere is that lobby greater than the NRA.
Tyler: All right. Bill George, always interesting to talk with you. I enjoyed your conversation. We appreciate it.
I'll Go Further...
This is beginning to which we should all become aware that our two political parties are corrupted by money and their personal egos. They will never do what is right. Instead of seeking voters to put something on a ballot, let us seek to form a new political party that stands for us. I call it the Liberty Party. Can I get an Amen?
Dear reader, I have stated many times that our government is corrupt as it condescends the people under a label of populism. They do not listen to us and this is why I call for the creation of a new third party. The original platform will stand for peace as a nation. We will no longer be the police force for the world. We will only enact laws that protect American workers with the ideas of the constitution to "promote the general welfare in the pursuit of happiness." We will strive to return to the gold standard and we begin by demanding a balanced budget every year. There are many other issues facing America, but our nation needs a starting point and the LIBERTY PARTY is it.
Discussion
Tyler: The school shooting in Florida last week has refocused many controversial discussions and conversations in America. One of them is the power that industries and their lobbyists have over the nation's political process.
I don't know whether you happened to see the CNN town hall last night. But at one point during the discussion, one of the questioners asked one of the senators, I believe it was Mr. Rubio, this basic question. If the NRA has such power over the political process in the US, they being an arm of an industry, the gun manufacturing industry, is democracy broken?
And I suppose you could ask a similar question about the pharmaceutical business, which has tremendous power over drug policy in the country and drug pricing in this country. Or you could ask a similar question about the banking business and its power over regulators and Congress.
Talk me through this one. Do companies and their lobbying arms control our democracy to too great a degree today?
Bill: Well, I certainly think they do in the case of the school shootings. The NRA has enormous power, Tyler. And it's very discouraging to me when over 80 percent of the American public is urging restrictions on assault weapons and yet you see that Congress seems hamstrung to act. I'm not optimistic they will.
And frankly, I'm urging CEOs to get out there and organize in their local communities, with their mayors, their city councils, get the state legislatures and governors involved, and take action locally. I'm much more optimistic of that.
After all, these are our children. These are our employees and their families. And these are our communities. And the obligation we all have as CEOs to protect our local communities and to make sure that our students are safe.
I do feel like this time it's different. We are at a tipping point perhaps in the thinking of the American public. But, I think we are going to get more action locally to make schools safe and to take of guns coming in school. I think it's horrible.
Tyler: Let me come back to my earlier thesis if I might just a little bit.
Bill: O.K.
Tyler: And that is the idea that I think a lot of voters, individuals, feel as though the system works for large corporate interests, but doesn't work for the general population, and because there is so much corporate money or PAC money flowing in to the pockets, the coffers, the campaign committees of men and women who run for the House or Congress or Senate or state legislation, that people have lost control of their government at the expense of corporate interests.
Bill: Well, there is truth in that. Ever since Citizen United, it isn't just corporate interests, Tyler. It's individual wealthy donors are giving huge, hundreds of millions of dollars or more to political campaigns because we took all those restrictions off. Yes, I think it's having too much influence.
And I do think that our congressmen and women and senators need to be listening to the people. I'm delighted to see the students stepping up and lobbying. I think the parents have to go with them to do that to do that. But that's still going to be a long pull. We have come a long way to give too much power to moneyed interests.
I think we have got to change that as a country and get it back to a democracy and stop listening to all the lobbyists. There is so much power in our lobbyists throughout the country. But nowhere is that lobby greater than the NRA.
Tyler: All right. Bill George, always interesting to talk with you. I enjoyed your conversation. We appreciate it.
I'll Go Further...
This is beginning to which we should all become aware that our two political parties are corrupted by money and their personal egos. They will never do what is right. Instead of seeking voters to put something on a ballot, let us seek to form a new political party that stands for us. I call it the Liberty Party. Can I get an Amen?
Tuesday, February 27, 2018
Back Tracking Double Talk
The other day, Goldman Sacks(GS) made a public announcement on the market, specifically centered on the effects of rising interest rates. They stated that if rates rise to 4.2% on the 10-Year Note that equities would fall a minimum of 25%.
There are always opinions on the market and if one had access to the trading floor, one would hear of rumors all the time. Some of these stories can move the market, but most are just short term, knee jerk reactions. With that said, the big institutions like Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Goldman can move the market or put thoughts on the influences that move the market like the Federal Reserve. Isn't it an opportune time to come "public" the day before the new head honcho, Powell speaks before Congress? It won't be the first time, but the media never calls out these phonies who benefit from a rising market with cheap money. Let's review.
*In 2014 when the 10-Year rate was 1.75%, Goldman declared that the recovery which was in its 6th year, could be threatened. Rates fell below 1.5% after their claim.
*In 2016. GS stated that 2.75% would be the danger level. When this level was within reach, GS raised its call to 3%.
*Then, one year ago, GS said 3.25% was the new danger zone. Lately, the 3% mark is within striking distance. So, the other day, they raised their warning level to 4.2%. So far, in all cases rising rates have not deterred the market.
Why 4.2%?
I'll tell you why. They benefit from rising equities and cheap money. Consider our economy in the 90s? We transformed from manufacturing to service orientated. The information age from new technology was beginning as well as personal computers. Things were better overall during that time as compared to today. Guess what? The rate on the 10-Year note averaged 6%. Savers were not punished like toady which GS could care less about. Even as late as 2005, the average rate was 5%. So, I ask again, why 4.2%?
Lies and more lies...
There is one index that with a quick glance that tells you all you need to know about the global economy. There is a difference with it when you consider an individual company or even an entire nation. Why? Because if history has taught us anything, companies and nations lie about their earnings and GDP. It is very difficult to fudge the BDI.
When these lies are exposed, the market reacts, and generally for the worst. If you look at an historical chart of the market, many corrections could be tied to news in the market.
China
This is the poster child for lying. When their market found out about the lies of their real estate situation, their investors ran for the hills. Their market was about to collapse. The Chinese instituted market controls and held off a meltdown. This did not stop world markets from joining the selling panic.
EU
The European Union faced a financial crisis in 2008 with the Greek economy and its excessive debt. They flooded the market with QE and other stimulus to stop the bleeding. Our market has its largest correction in August 2008.
How about our banks lying on NINJA loans? How about Enron? The list could fill a book and dear reader, I suspect this same lying is happening as I write this blog.
The Baltic Shipping Index(BDI) holds the key. It tracks world commerce by shipping on the high seas. Yesterday, it stood at 1185. What does this number mean?
Well, it is way below what would be classified as a normal economy. The way our stock market hits new highs as well as world markets, this index should be over 4500 on its way to 5,000. It is not. It is in a downturn from a not recoverable level. It reached its high in December of 2017 at 1750. This was an uptrend from a low in 2016 of 300 which is a depression level as well as the current level. Let me repeat that, we are still in a DEPRESSION LEVEL!
This index is telling us that the global economy has not recovered and the highs in the market is the result of cheap money and low interest rates. Earnings are masked by company buybacks This leads me to one conclusion, Goldman Sacks can never be trusted. I always fear whenever they talk about precious metals because they are for fiat currencies, but even with that said, I agree with them that 4.2% is as dangerous as a four-deuce attack by Charley back in the day. Continuing, I must clarify. I agree with them because by that time all the accounting tricks will be exposed. Housing will be negatively effected and oil will be hurt by electric cars. However, it is better to attempt to get the market back to normal levels than let fear keep us addicted to cheap money which destroys our standard of living and allows politicians to spend which also destroys our currency. If you have not earned it, you cannot spend it!
There are always opinions on the market and if one had access to the trading floor, one would hear of rumors all the time. Some of these stories can move the market, but most are just short term, knee jerk reactions. With that said, the big institutions like Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Goldman can move the market or put thoughts on the influences that move the market like the Federal Reserve. Isn't it an opportune time to come "public" the day before the new head honcho, Powell speaks before Congress? It won't be the first time, but the media never calls out these phonies who benefit from a rising market with cheap money. Let's review.
*In 2014 when the 10-Year rate was 1.75%, Goldman declared that the recovery which was in its 6th year, could be threatened. Rates fell below 1.5% after their claim.
*In 2016. GS stated that 2.75% would be the danger level. When this level was within reach, GS raised its call to 3%.
*Then, one year ago, GS said 3.25% was the new danger zone. Lately, the 3% mark is within striking distance. So, the other day, they raised their warning level to 4.2%. So far, in all cases rising rates have not deterred the market.
Why 4.2%?
I'll tell you why. They benefit from rising equities and cheap money. Consider our economy in the 90s? We transformed from manufacturing to service orientated. The information age from new technology was beginning as well as personal computers. Things were better overall during that time as compared to today. Guess what? The rate on the 10-Year note averaged 6%. Savers were not punished like toady which GS could care less about. Even as late as 2005, the average rate was 5%. So, I ask again, why 4.2%?
Lies and more lies...
There is one index that with a quick glance that tells you all you need to know about the global economy. There is a difference with it when you consider an individual company or even an entire nation. Why? Because if history has taught us anything, companies and nations lie about their earnings and GDP. It is very difficult to fudge the BDI.
When these lies are exposed, the market reacts, and generally for the worst. If you look at an historical chart of the market, many corrections could be tied to news in the market.
China
This is the poster child for lying. When their market found out about the lies of their real estate situation, their investors ran for the hills. Their market was about to collapse. The Chinese instituted market controls and held off a meltdown. This did not stop world markets from joining the selling panic.
EU
The European Union faced a financial crisis in 2008 with the Greek economy and its excessive debt. They flooded the market with QE and other stimulus to stop the bleeding. Our market has its largest correction in August 2008.
How about our banks lying on NINJA loans? How about Enron? The list could fill a book and dear reader, I suspect this same lying is happening as I write this blog.
The Baltic Shipping Index(BDI) holds the key. It tracks world commerce by shipping on the high seas. Yesterday, it stood at 1185. What does this number mean?
Well, it is way below what would be classified as a normal economy. The way our stock market hits new highs as well as world markets, this index should be over 4500 on its way to 5,000. It is not. It is in a downturn from a not recoverable level. It reached its high in December of 2017 at 1750. This was an uptrend from a low in 2016 of 300 which is a depression level as well as the current level. Let me repeat that, we are still in a DEPRESSION LEVEL!
This index is telling us that the global economy has not recovered and the highs in the market is the result of cheap money and low interest rates. Earnings are masked by company buybacks This leads me to one conclusion, Goldman Sacks can never be trusted. I always fear whenever they talk about precious metals because they are for fiat currencies, but even with that said, I agree with them that 4.2% is as dangerous as a four-deuce attack by Charley back in the day. Continuing, I must clarify. I agree with them because by that time all the accounting tricks will be exposed. Housing will be negatively effected and oil will be hurt by electric cars. However, it is better to attempt to get the market back to normal levels than let fear keep us addicted to cheap money which destroys our standard of living and allows politicians to spend which also destroys our currency. If you have not earned it, you cannot spend it!
Wednesday, February 21, 2018
First Real Estate Warning Signs
Last week I viewed a segment of NBR on PBS. The reporter, Diane Olick offered an example of a high-end home for sale in Denver, Co. It appeared on the market that Thursday and by Saturday it had 37 visits to view. It was listed for $587,000. It had a contract by Monday.
She demonstrated that this is still a seller's market. The reason is because there is limited supply. You can get high prices. Low interest rates help the market. However, the Federal Reserve has indicated that there will be at least three rate hikes this year. Mortgage rates are rising with 5% on the horizon. Historically, this is considered a low rate, but home prices are well above wages received by middle and low level workers. As you will see, entry level homes are eroding at a rapid rate.
She goes on to say that buyer's in this current atmosphere will have to endure at a minimum, of at least two rejected offers before a successful bid. The above contains two real estate warnings and more will come as you continue, dear reader.
Skylar Olsen, a senior economist with Zillow says, "The actual supply side of the market is stable. The problem has been our growing population and builders adding only one-fourth of new homes in relation to the historical average."
In numbers, today we add 1.25 million homes and in the past, the number was well over 5 million. Inside the numbers are more alarming numbers. Most of those new additions are either high-end or multifamily. Entry level homes which is the starting point in real estate ascension is lacking, terribly.
Consider for example, the level of multifamily homes in 2017. The number reached a 40-year high with completions jumping 46%. This is more than double the long term average according to Real Page(RP).
Greg Willett of RP says, "Builders are adding the wrong type of homes. They are going hard into the luxury category and not affordable area." He goes on to say what builders cry about, "Land scarcity with high costs, the rising cost of materials and labor."
Builders have concluded that the above costs are similar everywhere and there is no profit margin in affordable, thus luxury is the winner.
Toby Bozzuto, the CEO of Bozzuto Group repeats this warning. He understands the situation. He realized from studies that the middle and low class buyers are trapped by high rent costs. This blocks their ability to save for a down-payment. In many areas they spend 50% of income on rent. In addition, there is a limited number of rentals available and as such, landlords can continue to raise rents. I have stated the same concerns and I point the finger at the Fed. They do not include shelter in their inflation matrix. This is why they claim that we have not reached our 2% goal. So much BS!
Bozzuto handles 70,000 units and it is no wonder that most fall into the high-end category. He does have a concern that this will effect the real estate market in a negative way. Non-luxury rents continue to rise because even with last year's additions, the market is vastly unsupplied with pent-up demand. Bozzuto fears this will hurt the normal progression in housing from smaller homes to larger residences. I agree. When higher interest rates hit the market, the pool of buyer's will shrink. This will result in declining sales which will hurt housing values and real estate in general. This will ultimately hurt the economy. It will also hurt the concept of the American dream of home ownership. Not good.
She demonstrated that this is still a seller's market. The reason is because there is limited supply. You can get high prices. Low interest rates help the market. However, the Federal Reserve has indicated that there will be at least three rate hikes this year. Mortgage rates are rising with 5% on the horizon. Historically, this is considered a low rate, but home prices are well above wages received by middle and low level workers. As you will see, entry level homes are eroding at a rapid rate.
She goes on to say that buyer's in this current atmosphere will have to endure at a minimum, of at least two rejected offers before a successful bid. The above contains two real estate warnings and more will come as you continue, dear reader.
Skylar Olsen, a senior economist with Zillow says, "The actual supply side of the market is stable. The problem has been our growing population and builders adding only one-fourth of new homes in relation to the historical average."
In numbers, today we add 1.25 million homes and in the past, the number was well over 5 million. Inside the numbers are more alarming numbers. Most of those new additions are either high-end or multifamily. Entry level homes which is the starting point in real estate ascension is lacking, terribly.
Consider for example, the level of multifamily homes in 2017. The number reached a 40-year high with completions jumping 46%. This is more than double the long term average according to Real Page(RP).
Greg Willett of RP says, "Builders are adding the wrong type of homes. They are going hard into the luxury category and not affordable area." He goes on to say what builders cry about, "Land scarcity with high costs, the rising cost of materials and labor."
Builders have concluded that the above costs are similar everywhere and there is no profit margin in affordable, thus luxury is the winner.
Toby Bozzuto, the CEO of Bozzuto Group repeats this warning. He understands the situation. He realized from studies that the middle and low class buyers are trapped by high rent costs. This blocks their ability to save for a down-payment. In many areas they spend 50% of income on rent. In addition, there is a limited number of rentals available and as such, landlords can continue to raise rents. I have stated the same concerns and I point the finger at the Fed. They do not include shelter in their inflation matrix. This is why they claim that we have not reached our 2% goal. So much BS!
Bozzuto handles 70,000 units and it is no wonder that most fall into the high-end category. He does have a concern that this will effect the real estate market in a negative way. Non-luxury rents continue to rise because even with last year's additions, the market is vastly unsupplied with pent-up demand. Bozzuto fears this will hurt the normal progression in housing from smaller homes to larger residences. I agree. When higher interest rates hit the market, the pool of buyer's will shrink. This will result in declining sales which will hurt housing values and real estate in general. This will ultimately hurt the economy. It will also hurt the concept of the American dream of home ownership. Not good.
Wednesday, February 14, 2018
Signs of a Disturbed Mind
Do you recall that during the presidential campaign, Donald Trump said, "I could stand on the corner and shoot someone and still get elected?" Everyone dismissed this as a confused moment except the Democrats.
Last week, the day after his first State of the Union speech, he had another confused moment. He told an audience that those Democrats who did not clap during his speech were un-American. He stopped and changed his thought to, "Treasonous." This is UN-AMERICAN! It is a form of freedom of speech for everyone to decide what they favor or oppose. It gets worse.
The next day Trump declared that he wanted a special military parade. He said that he got the idea from France in watching their state parade in his honor when he visited the country. I hate this on many levels.
First, special, big parades cost a fortune. Our national deficit is bad enough. Trump is still fighting to increase the debt level because it is reaching un-repayable levels. He knows that Congress will increase the debt ceiling. So, what does he do? He wants to splurge and spend. He can declare it is a tribute to the veterans. He can rationalize and use his bully pulpit, but this is pure waste.
Secondly, it will appear foolish as there is nothing to celebrate like maybe the end of all the wars in the Middle East. Donald, we celebrate the Fourth of July as proud Americans! We don't need phony pomp, especially from France and Europe-as they dress up like the old aristocratic class. This is stupid following dumb.
Other Signs
He suggested that he won't sign anything unless he gets his funding for the "WALL." He brazen attitude will turn away any democrats who just recently allied themselves to his side. If he thought that he could "play" the Democrats, his pushing and backing of the concealed weapon bill in Congress is stupid off the charts.
This bill would allow anyone to carry a weapon in public. The second amendment allows us to have a weapon in our homes for protection. Society is trying to advance and be truly civilized. Our government ended dueling over a hundred years ago because it was stupid loss of life. Society slowly took guns out of public activity and this action benefitted everyone. However Donald, we still have a violent society with deep prejudices on many levels--faith, color and regional. We have road rage, dysfunctional families, homeless and poverty. Violence will break out and this violence will force everyone to get a gun. The only winners will be the gun producers, lawyers and undertakers. The nightly news will only have time for a quick weather check and the daily body-bag count. Donald, THINK before you tweet and shout!
If this gets signed into law, I predict a rocket surge in gun related deaths. Road rage will someday look like a winter pile-up of cars except the drivers will be shooting at each other. The worst case scenario will be a race war to which we all lose. Donald, THINK before you shout and tweet!
Donald also said a lot of things during his state of the union message and many of those points are issues that his Republican party has a history of not supporting. This outsider is becoming a deep insider. His budget is full of over inflated revenue projections and spending even the Democrats wouldn't attempt. Our national deficit will hit $25 trillion before his term ends. He is guilty of grandstanding, appeasing the military complex like with his excessive budget increase, while cutting clean air initiatives. All this in itself, bodes poorly for the future, especially for peace. He will alienate support from both parties. His mind indicates when he realizes this turning point, he may do or declare some rash decision. What it is, I do not know, but he needs to step back, catch a breath and THINK before you tweet and shout!
Last week, the day after his first State of the Union speech, he had another confused moment. He told an audience that those Democrats who did not clap during his speech were un-American. He stopped and changed his thought to, "Treasonous." This is UN-AMERICAN! It is a form of freedom of speech for everyone to decide what they favor or oppose. It gets worse.
The next day Trump declared that he wanted a special military parade. He said that he got the idea from France in watching their state parade in his honor when he visited the country. I hate this on many levels.
First, special, big parades cost a fortune. Our national deficit is bad enough. Trump is still fighting to increase the debt level because it is reaching un-repayable levels. He knows that Congress will increase the debt ceiling. So, what does he do? He wants to splurge and spend. He can declare it is a tribute to the veterans. He can rationalize and use his bully pulpit, but this is pure waste.
Secondly, it will appear foolish as there is nothing to celebrate like maybe the end of all the wars in the Middle East. Donald, we celebrate the Fourth of July as proud Americans! We don't need phony pomp, especially from France and Europe-as they dress up like the old aristocratic class. This is stupid following dumb.
Other Signs
He suggested that he won't sign anything unless he gets his funding for the "WALL." He brazen attitude will turn away any democrats who just recently allied themselves to his side. If he thought that he could "play" the Democrats, his pushing and backing of the concealed weapon bill in Congress is stupid off the charts.
This bill would allow anyone to carry a weapon in public. The second amendment allows us to have a weapon in our homes for protection. Society is trying to advance and be truly civilized. Our government ended dueling over a hundred years ago because it was stupid loss of life. Society slowly took guns out of public activity and this action benefitted everyone. However Donald, we still have a violent society with deep prejudices on many levels--faith, color and regional. We have road rage, dysfunctional families, homeless and poverty. Violence will break out and this violence will force everyone to get a gun. The only winners will be the gun producers, lawyers and undertakers. The nightly news will only have time for a quick weather check and the daily body-bag count. Donald, THINK before you tweet and shout!
If this gets signed into law, I predict a rocket surge in gun related deaths. Road rage will someday look like a winter pile-up of cars except the drivers will be shooting at each other. The worst case scenario will be a race war to which we all lose. Donald, THINK before you shout and tweet!
Donald also said a lot of things during his state of the union message and many of those points are issues that his Republican party has a history of not supporting. This outsider is becoming a deep insider. His budget is full of over inflated revenue projections and spending even the Democrats wouldn't attempt. Our national deficit will hit $25 trillion before his term ends. He is guilty of grandstanding, appeasing the military complex like with his excessive budget increase, while cutting clean air initiatives. All this in itself, bodes poorly for the future, especially for peace. He will alienate support from both parties. His mind indicates when he realizes this turning point, he may do or declare some rash decision. What it is, I do not know, but he needs to step back, catch a breath and THINK before you tweet and shout!
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