In a recent report on global debt by the IMF in 2018 the world is drowning in debt. Their finding totals $188 Trillion. I used a capital "T" to focus your eyes. They went on to breakdown each industrialized share of this poisonous pie.
The US debt to GDP was over 100% at 108%.
France was at 97% debt to GDP.
Italy is scary at 131% debt to GDP.
The average for almost all the economies was 267% debt to GDP.
The report signaled out Germany for its low debt ratio to GDP at 60%. This does not embolden the fiat outlook as all nations are spending more than they take in.
By the way Germany just reported that its manufacturing segment of its economy is in retraction at 43 with 50 being breakeven. The government says that it is ready to help with a $55 billion stimulus package. The debt ratio will keep rising which is why the outlook for interest rates is still negative.
10-Year US Note
It had a huge move in January. It went from 1.91 to 1.51 in just one month. We, at Evolution predicted that the 10-year would test its all-time low of 1.31 and the trend is indicating it is on the horizon. We also said that negative rates are a siren call to us all that central banks and fiat money should be retired. They are failures! These idiots keep devaluing the purchasing power of our dollars. I remind you of a report in 2014 by USA Today where it concluded to be middle-class in America the benchmark income needed to be $130,000 and the medium income for that year was $65,000. This is another snapshot of the wealth gap and how inflation helps to kill the living standard of the poor and middle-class.
Oil Industry
This cheap money by the Federal Reserve is also killing one of our most important industries: Oil.
When oil spiked in 2007, oil firms rushed to borrow cheap money for exploration and dig for oil. The shale industry was the worse as they piled on debt to find natural gas. They envision LNG would grow exponentially. It did, but too much gas was discovered. The laws of economics took effect. Too much supply and prices decrease. This is the present situation.
Now, these low prices with low revenues are effecting the outlook for the industry. Companies are cutting back on exploration. They are ending their buybacks of their stock. By the way, this will effect the stock market as buybacks account for 25% of trading. Some firms are cutting their dividend or ending it. This is a slow process. It takes time to have an effect. Anyway, this change in outlook for the industry will lower future oil production. The IEA says we will get 900,000 barrels per day from shale. However, the cutbacks by the fracking industry will decrease some 200,000 barrels of oil from the IEA estimate. This will eventually get the attention of Wall Street.
It has already got the attention of bankers. In many situations, bankers force their shale clients to continue to sell into the market even with prices so low that they are losing money. The banks won't offer more money until they see a stabilization of prices. Dear Reader, it takes six months in steady prices for the banks to feel confident about lending more money. This means the oil firms must suffer another half year to begin a new strategy. Then, it will take another 9-months to put new money into production. Keep in mind that experts and bankers are usually wrong. Back in 2013 the experts said $100 dollar oil. They were wrong. Goldman Sacks said $90 dollar oil in 2015. Oil went to $54. Then, no one saw oil hit $27 per barrel.
Bottom line: higher prices will come in 2021. This could help some down-and-out firms like RIG. Of course, they have to survive this year first.
Wednesday, February 19, 2020
Wednesday, February 12, 2020
Leadership Blues
Now, that the continuing circus on Capitol Hill is over, the two political parties should get back to work on the affairs of the nation. Don't hold your breath waiting. The only lesson that the public can learn from the theatrics is that both parties hate each other so badly that they won't be able to address any problems. This sad outlook will spill over to the national issues which will not be addressed. We already know that the media pays little attention to our national retail crisis. None of the Democratic candidates for the presidency has even given some lip service or any ideas concerning the fate of the retail industry in its historical format. Trump avoids the issue by circumventing it. He keeps the issue out of the news. He stays with what works-higher stock market and full employment. By doing this he also shows that he does not have any ideas on how to fix the problem. Is this the last days of the Thanksgiving Day parade?
Even the simple remedy to even the playing field by adding a sales tax on internet purchases is not on the table? This is the heart of the problem. Consumers know that by buying online that they are immediately ahead by six to nine percent through the sales tax. Many states have enacted a sales tax on internet purchases, but executing the policy has not been fruitful. The fairest idea would be for a national tax that allows each state to receive their respective tax amount. Our nation rarely chooses the fairest policy. If something is not done and soon, brick and mortar stores will be cut in half. Unemployment will rise. In the last five years retail has lost 241,000 jobs. A report by McKinsey estimates that by 2030 due to automation the global community will lose 375 million jobs. This disruptive aspect of capitalism will send our economy, and possibly the global community into a deep recession, if not a depression. Macy's not only will end its glorious parade, but the firm may collapse and disappear?
This is the recent trend...
In 2017 the number of retail stores that closed exploded. The stimulus from 2008 only delayed the trend that started at the millennial. E-commerce in the year 2000 began to peel away into the dominance of brick and mortar stores. It has steadily gained. At present it is 10% of the market. One may think, what is the danger when 90% of consumers still shop actively in a store?
Dear Reader, you must keep in mind that the retail stats are very misleading. They include your quick store stop for gasoline and then, maybe you purchase a snack or something else? They include your grocery shopping to which is also coming under duress. More and more firms are getting into home delivery like Walmart and Amazon. This is killing the standard supermarkets like Safeway. In addition, you have your large discount stores like Costco. You have your national drug firms like CVS and Walgreens that sell many consumer staples. Little by little the revenue of your standard brick and mortar stores is eroded. Did I mention malls? Your anchors like Sears, J. C. Penny and Macy's are closing stores as soon as their lease is expired. This kills the foot traffic in malls which are standing empty throughout the nation. I still cannot get my head around the unemployment reporting because when a store closes the number of lost jobs is a multiplication number. It is not one facility. It is many members making up the total number of lost jobs and wages. For example, Shopko employed 14,000 workers. They closed all their stores. Payless has cut 16,000 jobs.
This is another advantage of online firms. They have one central location. Because they entered the competition recently, they have utilized modern technology like robotics. They have consistently used less and less manpower and more machine service. This point is unquantifiable at present. Together, all these points is sending traditional retail to the big office in the sky.
Core-sight reports that 8,139 stores closed in 2017.
In 2018 the number declined due to Trump's tax cuts to 5,864.
The number for 2019 has already surpassed 12,000. People, that is 12,000 stores multiplied by the number of workers in each store. This is why I cannot believe the unemployment stats the bureau is releasing. Oh, by the way, Macy's started the new year by announcing that it will close another 125 stores and many are located in malls which adds to the contagion. Macy's says that it earned 78% of its sales from just 250 stores. This means the firm will probably close another 250 stores.
It gets worse...
Another report by a UBS analyst says, "If e-commerce total percentage of sales were to rise to 25% (and the trend points this way) by 2025, another 75,000 stores will close their doors.
Meanwhile, the next show in the circus in Washington continues, the beat goes on...
Even the simple remedy to even the playing field by adding a sales tax on internet purchases is not on the table? This is the heart of the problem. Consumers know that by buying online that they are immediately ahead by six to nine percent through the sales tax. Many states have enacted a sales tax on internet purchases, but executing the policy has not been fruitful. The fairest idea would be for a national tax that allows each state to receive their respective tax amount. Our nation rarely chooses the fairest policy. If something is not done and soon, brick and mortar stores will be cut in half. Unemployment will rise. In the last five years retail has lost 241,000 jobs. A report by McKinsey estimates that by 2030 due to automation the global community will lose 375 million jobs. This disruptive aspect of capitalism will send our economy, and possibly the global community into a deep recession, if not a depression. Macy's not only will end its glorious parade, but the firm may collapse and disappear?
This is the recent trend...
In 2017 the number of retail stores that closed exploded. The stimulus from 2008 only delayed the trend that started at the millennial. E-commerce in the year 2000 began to peel away into the dominance of brick and mortar stores. It has steadily gained. At present it is 10% of the market. One may think, what is the danger when 90% of consumers still shop actively in a store?
Dear Reader, you must keep in mind that the retail stats are very misleading. They include your quick store stop for gasoline and then, maybe you purchase a snack or something else? They include your grocery shopping to which is also coming under duress. More and more firms are getting into home delivery like Walmart and Amazon. This is killing the standard supermarkets like Safeway. In addition, you have your large discount stores like Costco. You have your national drug firms like CVS and Walgreens that sell many consumer staples. Little by little the revenue of your standard brick and mortar stores is eroded. Did I mention malls? Your anchors like Sears, J. C. Penny and Macy's are closing stores as soon as their lease is expired. This kills the foot traffic in malls which are standing empty throughout the nation. I still cannot get my head around the unemployment reporting because when a store closes the number of lost jobs is a multiplication number. It is not one facility. It is many members making up the total number of lost jobs and wages. For example, Shopko employed 14,000 workers. They closed all their stores. Payless has cut 16,000 jobs.
This is another advantage of online firms. They have one central location. Because they entered the competition recently, they have utilized modern technology like robotics. They have consistently used less and less manpower and more machine service. This point is unquantifiable at present. Together, all these points is sending traditional retail to the big office in the sky.
Core-sight reports that 8,139 stores closed in 2017.
In 2018 the number declined due to Trump's tax cuts to 5,864.
The number for 2019 has already surpassed 12,000. People, that is 12,000 stores multiplied by the number of workers in each store. This is why I cannot believe the unemployment stats the bureau is releasing. Oh, by the way, Macy's started the new year by announcing that it will close another 125 stores and many are located in malls which adds to the contagion. Macy's says that it earned 78% of its sales from just 250 stores. This means the firm will probably close another 250 stores.
It gets worse...
Another report by a UBS analyst says, "If e-commerce total percentage of sales were to rise to 25% (and the trend points this way) by 2025, another 75,000 stores will close their doors.
Meanwhile, the next show in the circus in Washington continues, the beat goes on...
Wednesday, February 5, 2020
ECB: The Other Central Bank
Christine Lagarde has taken over the reins of power at the European Central Bank (ECB). Her first comments were, "The bank will be highly accommodative." She probably had a strong sense of conditions within the EU and elsewhere since her last post was running the IMF. However, sometimes being a Monday morning quarterback and actually being the quarterback are two different things. This leads me and us to this:
Scariest Omen...
Lagarde has been behind the desk now for a month. She has had time to catch-up on the real conditions of the European economy as well as how it pertains to the global community. She has probably touched base with Powell of the US Federal Reserve. Then, she made this statement, "We should be happier to have a job than to have our savings protected."
Do you understand what this means? It means that your money in the bank is not yours anymore!
She has thrown the first rock at traditional banking. She has germinated the seed that occurred at Cypress when the bank took ownership of citizens deposits. There are many educated people out there who besides the writers of this blog, have pointed out the dangers of fiat money. This danger was reached when bonds that were issued with negative interest hit the market. The numbers exploded to $18 trillion and rising as writer's like myself screamed that this is the proof that fiat is a failure! The banks got worried that maybe the masses would wake up to their financial crimes. Since then, the value of negative bonds has been reduced to $13 trillion. We did not win anything. Lagarde's salvo says that negative interest rates will be the norm in the future. She, along with central banks will come up with a plan. It will probably be related to capital controls. Banks will limit your withdrawals. They already have features that report sums of $5,000 and 10,000. They cite the usual suspects which in some instances is true: terrorism, money laundering and drug traffic. This is really against you the citizen. They are taking away the tried and true aspect of life: save for a rainy day. In their world whatever you put into a savings account, it is their money. To prove it, they will give you back less than you put into the account with negative interest. I predict the return of putting your money under a mattress as the safest place in town.
Prediction coming true...
and ahead of schedule. The two largest Swizz banks have seen many of their largest depositors taking out their money in masse. We all should know that Swizz citizens are smart with money and finances. They still are! They are first in line to realize that they do not want any part of negative interest rates.
2cd Scariest Omen...
was issued by the new head of the IMF. Kristalena Georgieva took over for Lagarde. She too has had time to digest the current economic situation. This is her first stated comment, "We are in danger of another Great Depression." She cited the usual suspects, but her last reason could be the one that could cause the most trouble. By that I mean it could be the catalyst that begins the negative contagion. Here are her thoughts: too much debt, oversized evaluations in stock markets, excessively high real estate in many countries while at the same time those same nations have an aging society along with wage stagnation and finally, disruption of industries with new IT innovations.
Dear Reader, e-commerce is disrupting retail. Robotic systems cause fewer workers, electric autos need less workers. Keep in mind that every store that closes, one needs to multiply the workers involved. There were over 10,000 stores that closed in 2019. Together, the numbers will effect the economy. These changes to an economy are slow and they are not realized until boom. Her last point is very valid which makes her comments very scary.
Scariest Omen...
Lagarde has been behind the desk now for a month. She has had time to catch-up on the real conditions of the European economy as well as how it pertains to the global community. She has probably touched base with Powell of the US Federal Reserve. Then, she made this statement, "We should be happier to have a job than to have our savings protected."
Do you understand what this means? It means that your money in the bank is not yours anymore!
She has thrown the first rock at traditional banking. She has germinated the seed that occurred at Cypress when the bank took ownership of citizens deposits. There are many educated people out there who besides the writers of this blog, have pointed out the dangers of fiat money. This danger was reached when bonds that were issued with negative interest hit the market. The numbers exploded to $18 trillion and rising as writer's like myself screamed that this is the proof that fiat is a failure! The banks got worried that maybe the masses would wake up to their financial crimes. Since then, the value of negative bonds has been reduced to $13 trillion. We did not win anything. Lagarde's salvo says that negative interest rates will be the norm in the future. She, along with central banks will come up with a plan. It will probably be related to capital controls. Banks will limit your withdrawals. They already have features that report sums of $5,000 and 10,000. They cite the usual suspects which in some instances is true: terrorism, money laundering and drug traffic. This is really against you the citizen. They are taking away the tried and true aspect of life: save for a rainy day. In their world whatever you put into a savings account, it is their money. To prove it, they will give you back less than you put into the account with negative interest. I predict the return of putting your money under a mattress as the safest place in town.
Prediction coming true...
and ahead of schedule. The two largest Swizz banks have seen many of their largest depositors taking out their money in masse. We all should know that Swizz citizens are smart with money and finances. They still are! They are first in line to realize that they do not want any part of negative interest rates.
2cd Scariest Omen...
was issued by the new head of the IMF. Kristalena Georgieva took over for Lagarde. She too has had time to digest the current economic situation. This is her first stated comment, "We are in danger of another Great Depression." She cited the usual suspects, but her last reason could be the one that could cause the most trouble. By that I mean it could be the catalyst that begins the negative contagion. Here are her thoughts: too much debt, oversized evaluations in stock markets, excessively high real estate in many countries while at the same time those same nations have an aging society along with wage stagnation and finally, disruption of industries with new IT innovations.
Dear Reader, e-commerce is disrupting retail. Robotic systems cause fewer workers, electric autos need less workers. Keep in mind that every store that closes, one needs to multiply the workers involved. There were over 10,000 stores that closed in 2019. Together, the numbers will effect the economy. These changes to an economy are slow and they are not realized until boom. Her last point is very valid which makes her comments very scary.
Wednesday, January 29, 2020
Odds and Ends: January 2020
In this recurring monthly piece I generally do not include the year; I do for a new year. It helps perspective. As we enter the new year, our footsteps from the previous come along with us. With that understanding I begin.
Dollar
It has been rising lately. It just past its 24-month moving average at 97.36. However, this is a fraction below the 50-day and 200-day average. The dollar has been range bound for the past three years. We have seen this movie before.
The same could be said for a bearish outlook. The 95. level seems to be the crucial point. A break below that level would indicate a bearish trend.
The indicator that has been working best for the past 20 years is the direction of the stock market. If the market is in a rally mode, a delayed reaction in the dollar appears. It will gain strength. On the flip side, if the market drops, eventually the dollar follows this direction. At the moment the market is in a rally mode. The trade tensions have relaxed. The danger level in the Middle East is falling. The Brexit deal signals another year of no dramatic changes. They already have a transition period until 31st of December 2020. There are no financial worries at the moment. Together, the current trend should stay in motion until mid-year. The political circus in the US will only have an effect if something stirs the pot against Trump. He has his cards dealt. His full house which is the Senate ensures he will escape impeachment. He is waiting for his reelection to do what he intends to do. This is the trade situation with China. If he has the balls to cut off China as a trade partner, there will be a serious global recession, possibly a depression. China will never change. They will do whatever they feel will make them number one. This ego drive will show up in there continual theft of intellectual property. He should also put tariffs on US companies that outsource to China. If the product is made somewhere elese, it is foreign. It should be taxed. This is the only true way to protect American firms and workers.
Anyway, this bullish outlook will awaken the contrarians. They will be on the lookout for a short-term pullback. We also saw this movie in December 2018. As I state in my unpublished work, "All things are connected." Politics will effect how the year plays out economically for the US and the world.
Speaking of the world...
The Davos Economic Summit agrees about my indicator to the economic environment. They see the US has the highest risk facing the world. They worry about all the usual suspects: China trade, US politics, Middle East and EU tariffs. The other big concern is climate change. Of course, they don't offer any solutions like my water idea in my unpublished book.
Dry Well
The largest natural gas driller reported a huge write-down of its assets. EQT paints a sad face to the industry. Too much supply-lower prices. The lower value ($1.8-B) is a contagion that has spread throughout the industry. Chesapeake Energy is selling at pennies on the dollar. Range Resources has slashed its dividend. Many others will follow this lead. Even with a draw down on oil inventories in the latest energy report, the price of oil and gas has declined. Exxon is trading where it was in 2006. If you do not realize it, the US is pumping out 13 million barrels and it exported 4 million last month. If energy firms cut back on spending, it will not only hurt the economy, but we can expect an oil spike in 2021.
Yelling Yellen
She is in the news again. The report forget to mention that she was making money giving speeches. This time in Asia. She is worried that the trade deal with China is not over to which will negatively effect advances in technology and robotic AI. Even with the phase one deal, she noted that US tariffs of 25% will be on $370 billion Chinese goods. The trade dispute will hinge on Chinese subsidies and technology competition, especially as it applies to national security. The last sentence tells so much. She does not point any fingers at anyone. She does not mention anything that causes our deterioration in the US standard of living due to outsourcing or anything that would help the American worker. This is the Fed people and another reason why we should End the Fed!
Drive-in TVs
The biggest push at the Las Vegas CES was extra large TVs. This is not for me. If you invest in one, you may need to protect your investment. How about a "Robot Dog?" Also, not for me. I'd wait for the "Saber Light" feature.
Another trillion...
Google joined the other three members of the trillion dollar club. Remember Paul Simon's words of wisdom, "One man's ceiling is another man's floor." As Google joins the club, some other firm goes bankrupt. This is disrupting the economy, but longer-term it will be the norm to the economy.
Speaking of the economy...
the second most important purchased by a consumer is a vehicle. A new report by the IMF on auto manufacturing and sales paints a dark picture. The study shows that the auto industry accounts for 5.7% of global GDP. This is down from the previous year and the decline is forming a negative trend. World auto sales dropped to 90 million from 94 million. No surprise here. When in America a new vehicle cost over $30K, one needs an above average job to purchase one. If all things are correlated, this price comparison will hold true to everyone in any nation. Autos are being priced out of the ever shrinking middle-class. Not good. There is one piece of good news. GM says it will use an old facility in Detroit to make electric cars. This will add 2200 good paying jobs.
Give Peace a Chance
President Trump had a conference with the Israeli prime minister with his initiative for peace in the Middle East. I'm all for peace, but you cannot have an agreement between two parties if one of the two is not present. Much ado about nothing.
Finally, Year of the Rat
In another example of culture clash, the Chinese celebrate the new year which is called, "The Year of the Rat." In their societal history the rat is resourceful and thrifty and therefore, it is a prosperous sign. In US culture the rat is a sneaky thief who will betray a friend. This is not good for Trump if some republicans betray him. However, someone took a video of a rat in the New York subway system finding a slice of pizza and carrying it to its space below. So, maybe the US and China could find some common ground and have a pizza together?
Dollar
It has been rising lately. It just past its 24-month moving average at 97.36. However, this is a fraction below the 50-day and 200-day average. The dollar has been range bound for the past three years. We have seen this movie before.
The same could be said for a bearish outlook. The 95. level seems to be the crucial point. A break below that level would indicate a bearish trend.
The indicator that has been working best for the past 20 years is the direction of the stock market. If the market is in a rally mode, a delayed reaction in the dollar appears. It will gain strength. On the flip side, if the market drops, eventually the dollar follows this direction. At the moment the market is in a rally mode. The trade tensions have relaxed. The danger level in the Middle East is falling. The Brexit deal signals another year of no dramatic changes. They already have a transition period until 31st of December 2020. There are no financial worries at the moment. Together, the current trend should stay in motion until mid-year. The political circus in the US will only have an effect if something stirs the pot against Trump. He has his cards dealt. His full house which is the Senate ensures he will escape impeachment. He is waiting for his reelection to do what he intends to do. This is the trade situation with China. If he has the balls to cut off China as a trade partner, there will be a serious global recession, possibly a depression. China will never change. They will do whatever they feel will make them number one. This ego drive will show up in there continual theft of intellectual property. He should also put tariffs on US companies that outsource to China. If the product is made somewhere elese, it is foreign. It should be taxed. This is the only true way to protect American firms and workers.
Anyway, this bullish outlook will awaken the contrarians. They will be on the lookout for a short-term pullback. We also saw this movie in December 2018. As I state in my unpublished work, "All things are connected." Politics will effect how the year plays out economically for the US and the world.
Speaking of the world...
The Davos Economic Summit agrees about my indicator to the economic environment. They see the US has the highest risk facing the world. They worry about all the usual suspects: China trade, US politics, Middle East and EU tariffs. The other big concern is climate change. Of course, they don't offer any solutions like my water idea in my unpublished book.
Dry Well
The largest natural gas driller reported a huge write-down of its assets. EQT paints a sad face to the industry. Too much supply-lower prices. The lower value ($1.8-B) is a contagion that has spread throughout the industry. Chesapeake Energy is selling at pennies on the dollar. Range Resources has slashed its dividend. Many others will follow this lead. Even with a draw down on oil inventories in the latest energy report, the price of oil and gas has declined. Exxon is trading where it was in 2006. If you do not realize it, the US is pumping out 13 million barrels and it exported 4 million last month. If energy firms cut back on spending, it will not only hurt the economy, but we can expect an oil spike in 2021.
Yelling Yellen
She is in the news again. The report forget to mention that she was making money giving speeches. This time in Asia. She is worried that the trade deal with China is not over to which will negatively effect advances in technology and robotic AI. Even with the phase one deal, she noted that US tariffs of 25% will be on $370 billion Chinese goods. The trade dispute will hinge on Chinese subsidies and technology competition, especially as it applies to national security. The last sentence tells so much. She does not point any fingers at anyone. She does not mention anything that causes our deterioration in the US standard of living due to outsourcing or anything that would help the American worker. This is the Fed people and another reason why we should End the Fed!
Drive-in TVs
The biggest push at the Las Vegas CES was extra large TVs. This is not for me. If you invest in one, you may need to protect your investment. How about a "Robot Dog?" Also, not for me. I'd wait for the "Saber Light" feature.
Another trillion...
Google joined the other three members of the trillion dollar club. Remember Paul Simon's words of wisdom, "One man's ceiling is another man's floor." As Google joins the club, some other firm goes bankrupt. This is disrupting the economy, but longer-term it will be the norm to the economy.
Speaking of the economy...
the second most important purchased by a consumer is a vehicle. A new report by the IMF on auto manufacturing and sales paints a dark picture. The study shows that the auto industry accounts for 5.7% of global GDP. This is down from the previous year and the decline is forming a negative trend. World auto sales dropped to 90 million from 94 million. No surprise here. When in America a new vehicle cost over $30K, one needs an above average job to purchase one. If all things are correlated, this price comparison will hold true to everyone in any nation. Autos are being priced out of the ever shrinking middle-class. Not good. There is one piece of good news. GM says it will use an old facility in Detroit to make electric cars. This will add 2200 good paying jobs.
Give Peace a Chance
President Trump had a conference with the Israeli prime minister with his initiative for peace in the Middle East. I'm all for peace, but you cannot have an agreement between two parties if one of the two is not present. Much ado about nothing.
Finally, Year of the Rat
In another example of culture clash, the Chinese celebrate the new year which is called, "The Year of the Rat." In their societal history the rat is resourceful and thrifty and therefore, it is a prosperous sign. In US culture the rat is a sneaky thief who will betray a friend. This is not good for Trump if some republicans betray him. However, someone took a video of a rat in the New York subway system finding a slice of pizza and carrying it to its space below. So, maybe the US and China could find some common ground and have a pizza together?
Wednesday, January 22, 2020
Housing: Millennials and the ROU
As you all should know, housing is our biggest purchase. The millennials take the lead position in the title because they are approaching their 30s which is prime time in home buying. The "ROU" is their byte language. It means the rest of us.
Leading into this moment, the housing market is not looking very good. Contrary to the financials reported by home builders which indicates positive earnings, the foundation in housing is precarious. Renters comprise 44% of households. Their numbers are increasing as many firms are following Blackrock's example. The firm purchased distressed homes after the recession in 2008. They have turned them into rentals. From that time rents have skyrocketed as well as housing costs for new construction. Together, first time buyers are being squeezed out of the buying market. There are other reasons.
After the recession...
the wave of buyers leaving or being expunged from their new homes overwhelmed the housing market. Occupancy levels hit all-time highs for rentals. This allowed landlords to raise prices. As stimulus hit the economy along with low interest rates, builders found new problems. Labor was displaced. Land costs rose. Regulations were put in place and banks tightened their lending standards. All these added costs. Builders turned to the high end retail market because it possessed the best choice in those conditions. They had success. They stayed with what worked. No new entry level homes were built. The rise in prices was met with a limited supply-an equilibrium was reached. This housing formula left our growing population on the outside looking in.
Flash Forward
We have had over ten years of limited new homes in the entry level. At the same time housing costs kept rising. Of course, the Federal Reserve never considers shelter costs in their phony equation for inflation. However, we have to live with what it is. Renting eats up half of many wage earners income in many locations. In addition, income increases have not come close to price and rental rises. This is why rental occupancy keeps rising as a percentage of all households. We have a situation where potential buyers cannot purchase because they cannot afford the price of housing today. This is the true picture of the housing market across the nation. Many renters are prisoners in their apartments. They cannot escape their rental purgatory. For others it meant a big decision: Return home to live with parents? Try living out of the car to save enough to return to rental living? Maybe buy a van or motor home, park on the street and save for a house? Some just found a concrete space as we see homelessness everywhere.
Latest report
The latest numbers on starter homes keep declining in inventory. This shortage gets more alarming each year. It is down another 12% in 2019. These are homes priced under $200,000. The shortage in supply continues into the mid-range level. The price range here expands from $200,000 to $750,000. They declined in inventory another 10%. When rates are low and few homes are available, guess what happens? Prices rise!
Now, the shills say, "Wait! The millennials are coming!" They are helping. Around 37% of this generation (Y) are home owners. Their predecessors, generation X are the first to show cracks in the American way of life as their standard of living is less than their parents. I say it began with the boomers. The next generation (Z) are also experiencing a decreased way of life. The millennials are according to stats even larger then the boomer generation. If that is so, I do not see any significant production to our economy and the housing segment from their numbers. With that said there are some positive changes within the market.
Altura, D.R. Horton...
are two home builders who are adding to entry level homes. Keep in mind the medium price for a new home is now $311,000. This is according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Dear Reader, you would have to have an income of $67,200 a year to qualify and no other debt like car payments, credit debt, school debt and so on. Anyway, the two builders are having success with starter homes. Their success is being copied by other builders. This is a good sign, but remember 56% of us are not participating in the American dream. One other aspect. Our seniors are opening their homes to their children and grandchildren. This is one reason why there are fewer and fewer homes for sale. In our nomadic society, people are staying put. In a way this has helped local economies as people are building small, tiny homes on their property for their family to reside. Nevertheless, the shortage of homes will continue into 2020. This will cause prices to continue to rise in housing. The chain in housing-starter, mid-range to high end is broken. This is great for present home owners as their nest is becoming a nest-egg. However, sadly, in many locations rising taxes are creating a new problem to home ownership. This is another cloud on the horizon.
Leading into this moment, the housing market is not looking very good. Contrary to the financials reported by home builders which indicates positive earnings, the foundation in housing is precarious. Renters comprise 44% of households. Their numbers are increasing as many firms are following Blackrock's example. The firm purchased distressed homes after the recession in 2008. They have turned them into rentals. From that time rents have skyrocketed as well as housing costs for new construction. Together, first time buyers are being squeezed out of the buying market. There are other reasons.
After the recession...
the wave of buyers leaving or being expunged from their new homes overwhelmed the housing market. Occupancy levels hit all-time highs for rentals. This allowed landlords to raise prices. As stimulus hit the economy along with low interest rates, builders found new problems. Labor was displaced. Land costs rose. Regulations were put in place and banks tightened their lending standards. All these added costs. Builders turned to the high end retail market because it possessed the best choice in those conditions. They had success. They stayed with what worked. No new entry level homes were built. The rise in prices was met with a limited supply-an equilibrium was reached. This housing formula left our growing population on the outside looking in.
Flash Forward
We have had over ten years of limited new homes in the entry level. At the same time housing costs kept rising. Of course, the Federal Reserve never considers shelter costs in their phony equation for inflation. However, we have to live with what it is. Renting eats up half of many wage earners income in many locations. In addition, income increases have not come close to price and rental rises. This is why rental occupancy keeps rising as a percentage of all households. We have a situation where potential buyers cannot purchase because they cannot afford the price of housing today. This is the true picture of the housing market across the nation. Many renters are prisoners in their apartments. They cannot escape their rental purgatory. For others it meant a big decision: Return home to live with parents? Try living out of the car to save enough to return to rental living? Maybe buy a van or motor home, park on the street and save for a house? Some just found a concrete space as we see homelessness everywhere.
Latest report
The latest numbers on starter homes keep declining in inventory. This shortage gets more alarming each year. It is down another 12% in 2019. These are homes priced under $200,000. The shortage in supply continues into the mid-range level. The price range here expands from $200,000 to $750,000. They declined in inventory another 10%. When rates are low and few homes are available, guess what happens? Prices rise!
Now, the shills say, "Wait! The millennials are coming!" They are helping. Around 37% of this generation (Y) are home owners. Their predecessors, generation X are the first to show cracks in the American way of life as their standard of living is less than their parents. I say it began with the boomers. The next generation (Z) are also experiencing a decreased way of life. The millennials are according to stats even larger then the boomer generation. If that is so, I do not see any significant production to our economy and the housing segment from their numbers. With that said there are some positive changes within the market.
Altura, D.R. Horton...
are two home builders who are adding to entry level homes. Keep in mind the medium price for a new home is now $311,000. This is according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Dear Reader, you would have to have an income of $67,200 a year to qualify and no other debt like car payments, credit debt, school debt and so on. Anyway, the two builders are having success with starter homes. Their success is being copied by other builders. This is a good sign, but remember 56% of us are not participating in the American dream. One other aspect. Our seniors are opening their homes to their children and grandchildren. This is one reason why there are fewer and fewer homes for sale. In our nomadic society, people are staying put. In a way this has helped local economies as people are building small, tiny homes on their property for their family to reside. Nevertheless, the shortage of homes will continue into 2020. This will cause prices to continue to rise in housing. The chain in housing-starter, mid-range to high end is broken. This is great for present home owners as their nest is becoming a nest-egg. However, sadly, in many locations rising taxes are creating a new problem to home ownership. This is another cloud on the horizon.
Wednesday, January 15, 2020
Dangers in 2020
At this time of the new year one can read countless pieces on the stocks to buy for 2020 and beyond. The names are mostly high tech and they are probably right. With that said there are a few serious dangers on the horizon. The chief one is not what you think. Take a moment to consider what you think? It is...
Demographics
There has been a trend in world migration. It is more massive than is being exposed in the press. The reasons are many like civil unrest, war, famine and the future which is effected by those disruptions along with a few others like religion or political beliefs. This trend is going to get worse. Keep in mind the scientific truth, "For every action, there is a reaction." This dictum can be applied to our human nature. What I am implying is that there will be a negative reaction to the influx of immigrants. It has happened many times throughout history. It is already surfacing as you read. This massive migration event happens every so often in history due to serious disruptions in a region. This time it will be more massive like world wars, it will effect the entire planet.
Middle East and Africa
There has been conflict taking place in the Middle East since history has been recorded, even before. These conflicts caused migration within the two continents. Today, with the enormous power of modern weapons, the migration will be equally massive. Africans, by the tens of thousands are engaging in flotillas to migrate to Europe. A continent of people both black and white are leaving. In the South African region it is due to a lack of water, famine and poverty for blacks. For whites it is the reprisal by blacks in power to take back their continent, even if they do it illegally. This has occurred off and on again for 50 years. People are tired of conflict. They are looking for a new future.
Further up the continent there is religious conflict along with political corruption. The losers are tired. They seek a change. The internet showed them the better standard of living in Europe. The early exiles have successfully transplanted. This encourages the larger population back in their homeland. They are journeying to the flotilla to Europe. The numbers are too long to be counted. This onslaught to the European continent has already caused a backlash. The tremors will get stronger has the European natives will have the tax burden of these immigrants. Then, there will be the job competition along with housing. West Side Story is coming to the EU.
At the same time the Middle East is walking to Turkey and into Europe. This has been going on since the US began war in Iraq in 2003. The numbers get greater has the conflict has spread. Consider all the nations involved: Lebanon, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Yemen. Of course, the Iranian situation clouds the picture even more. Then, you add the various tribes like the Kurds or the differences in the Muslim religion. The conflict between Sunni and Shite dates back to Mohammed. You combine all the above with a few other reasons like refugee centers that warehouse millions of displaced citizens. What do they have to go back to? The internet and relatives who made the early journey to Europe point out the better lifestyle. They will be coming in mass. They have one leg up on the Africans. They are better educated and their skin color. However, Europeans will only see that these immigrants are destroying their way of life. They are joining or listening to anti-immigration political parties as you read. The media will pick up on it as conflict erupts. This is an evasion that will take at least one generation to calm. Nations will build walls. Austria has started one. Others will follow. It will only get worse before this wave is assimilated.
One other aspect to this situation. The UK approved a Brexit plan. The timeline suggests the preliminary date is January 31st. Hold the press! Even if the plan passes the upper parliament house, there is a transition period which lasts until December 31st. As it stands, there is little or no economic change. We, at Evolution see another extension going into 2021. However, the UK is already putting up barriers to immigration. The train from Paris to London will be packed. Sebastian sees more outbursts in the UK against immigration. This will cause a backlash from the EU which will have its own immigration problem. The eventual split won't be pretty and it will lead to other problems.
US
We already have two million El Salvadorians. There are countless millions of Hondurans, Mexicans and soon, Venezuelans. The US has always took in immigrants, however we have put caps on their numbers in the past. We will do it again. One truth is the whole world cannot move to the US. If Trump wins, the wall will be completed. One mystery to me is why don't these Hispanic immigrants migrate to another Spanish speaking nation? Uruguay, Paraguay and Chile are prosperous. Colombia is growing and the immigrants would share language and customs.
Anyway, I sympathize with immigrants as everyone in the US have immigrant roots. With that said one must understand the negative effects of immigrants. They are a tax burden. They are an education burden. They need shelter at a time when many Americans are facing homelessness. They need jobs, but the entry level is where they work. We already have 44% of workers in unskilled labor. There is only so many low wage jobs and more competition will only cause upheaval, backlash and conflict. I, now believe that we need the wall to help limit the influx of immigrants. It will also help to deter illegal drugs. Bottom line: The whole world cannot live here.
Asia
The region has its own cultural problems. We cannot tell the difference between Chinese and Korean. They can. It is why there is less inter-nation migration. They have their own prejudices. Their problem will be the ego of China as the elephant on the continent. Economic competition will cause conflict in the region. The US has a tendency of picking the wrong side. We should stick by Japan and play Switzerland to the rest. We won't and that could lead to trouble.
Dollar and Gold
The other big problem will be debt. Too many nations are printing without knowing the consequences. All fiat currencies in the past have collapsed. Japan is over 100% debt to GDP. China is 60% or worse. The EU constitution limits debt to 3% of GDP. That is fantasy. Greece, Italy, Spain and France are all over their reported limit. The real danger is off the books. The US is the worse in the world and our sin is doubly bad. We have the privilege of being the world's currency. We have abused this position. Even though all nations are fiat and hate gold, many are buying gold to hedge the change that they seek. For one reason or another they want a change to the world's reserve currency. The IMF already has a currency in mind. It will be a basket with the US dollar the most heavily weighted. This is the reason why central banks are purchasing gold. They are vying for position in this new formula with a basket of currencies. Keep in mind that fiat hates gold and they are already in bed with fiat.
Anyway, if this change happens, the world will go into a very deep depression. Gold should rise in 2020. Even if that outcome is delayed, corporate debt could cause an economic crisis. All it takes is one derivative to start a domino chain reaction. These derivatives are truly weapons of mass financial destruction. JFL believes the recent turmoil in the repo market has its roots in a derivative problem. This could be on the 6:00 o'clock news one evening. This too will help gold.
Demographics
There has been a trend in world migration. It is more massive than is being exposed in the press. The reasons are many like civil unrest, war, famine and the future which is effected by those disruptions along with a few others like religion or political beliefs. This trend is going to get worse. Keep in mind the scientific truth, "For every action, there is a reaction." This dictum can be applied to our human nature. What I am implying is that there will be a negative reaction to the influx of immigrants. It has happened many times throughout history. It is already surfacing as you read. This massive migration event happens every so often in history due to serious disruptions in a region. This time it will be more massive like world wars, it will effect the entire planet.
Middle East and Africa
There has been conflict taking place in the Middle East since history has been recorded, even before. These conflicts caused migration within the two continents. Today, with the enormous power of modern weapons, the migration will be equally massive. Africans, by the tens of thousands are engaging in flotillas to migrate to Europe. A continent of people both black and white are leaving. In the South African region it is due to a lack of water, famine and poverty for blacks. For whites it is the reprisal by blacks in power to take back their continent, even if they do it illegally. This has occurred off and on again for 50 years. People are tired of conflict. They are looking for a new future.
Further up the continent there is religious conflict along with political corruption. The losers are tired. They seek a change. The internet showed them the better standard of living in Europe. The early exiles have successfully transplanted. This encourages the larger population back in their homeland. They are journeying to the flotilla to Europe. The numbers are too long to be counted. This onslaught to the European continent has already caused a backlash. The tremors will get stronger has the European natives will have the tax burden of these immigrants. Then, there will be the job competition along with housing. West Side Story is coming to the EU.
At the same time the Middle East is walking to Turkey and into Europe. This has been going on since the US began war in Iraq in 2003. The numbers get greater has the conflict has spread. Consider all the nations involved: Lebanon, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Yemen. Of course, the Iranian situation clouds the picture even more. Then, you add the various tribes like the Kurds or the differences in the Muslim religion. The conflict between Sunni and Shite dates back to Mohammed. You combine all the above with a few other reasons like refugee centers that warehouse millions of displaced citizens. What do they have to go back to? The internet and relatives who made the early journey to Europe point out the better lifestyle. They will be coming in mass. They have one leg up on the Africans. They are better educated and their skin color. However, Europeans will only see that these immigrants are destroying their way of life. They are joining or listening to anti-immigration political parties as you read. The media will pick up on it as conflict erupts. This is an evasion that will take at least one generation to calm. Nations will build walls. Austria has started one. Others will follow. It will only get worse before this wave is assimilated.
One other aspect to this situation. The UK approved a Brexit plan. The timeline suggests the preliminary date is January 31st. Hold the press! Even if the plan passes the upper parliament house, there is a transition period which lasts until December 31st. As it stands, there is little or no economic change. We, at Evolution see another extension going into 2021. However, the UK is already putting up barriers to immigration. The train from Paris to London will be packed. Sebastian sees more outbursts in the UK against immigration. This will cause a backlash from the EU which will have its own immigration problem. The eventual split won't be pretty and it will lead to other problems.
US
We already have two million El Salvadorians. There are countless millions of Hondurans, Mexicans and soon, Venezuelans. The US has always took in immigrants, however we have put caps on their numbers in the past. We will do it again. One truth is the whole world cannot move to the US. If Trump wins, the wall will be completed. One mystery to me is why don't these Hispanic immigrants migrate to another Spanish speaking nation? Uruguay, Paraguay and Chile are prosperous. Colombia is growing and the immigrants would share language and customs.
Anyway, I sympathize with immigrants as everyone in the US have immigrant roots. With that said one must understand the negative effects of immigrants. They are a tax burden. They are an education burden. They need shelter at a time when many Americans are facing homelessness. They need jobs, but the entry level is where they work. We already have 44% of workers in unskilled labor. There is only so many low wage jobs and more competition will only cause upheaval, backlash and conflict. I, now believe that we need the wall to help limit the influx of immigrants. It will also help to deter illegal drugs. Bottom line: The whole world cannot live here.
Asia
The region has its own cultural problems. We cannot tell the difference between Chinese and Korean. They can. It is why there is less inter-nation migration. They have their own prejudices. Their problem will be the ego of China as the elephant on the continent. Economic competition will cause conflict in the region. The US has a tendency of picking the wrong side. We should stick by Japan and play Switzerland to the rest. We won't and that could lead to trouble.
Dollar and Gold
The other big problem will be debt. Too many nations are printing without knowing the consequences. All fiat currencies in the past have collapsed. Japan is over 100% debt to GDP. China is 60% or worse. The EU constitution limits debt to 3% of GDP. That is fantasy. Greece, Italy, Spain and France are all over their reported limit. The real danger is off the books. The US is the worse in the world and our sin is doubly bad. We have the privilege of being the world's currency. We have abused this position. Even though all nations are fiat and hate gold, many are buying gold to hedge the change that they seek. For one reason or another they want a change to the world's reserve currency. The IMF already has a currency in mind. It will be a basket with the US dollar the most heavily weighted. This is the reason why central banks are purchasing gold. They are vying for position in this new formula with a basket of currencies. Keep in mind that fiat hates gold and they are already in bed with fiat.
Anyway, if this change happens, the world will go into a very deep depression. Gold should rise in 2020. Even if that outcome is delayed, corporate debt could cause an economic crisis. All it takes is one derivative to start a domino chain reaction. These derivatives are truly weapons of mass financial destruction. JFL believes the recent turmoil in the repo market has its roots in a derivative problem. This could be on the 6:00 o'clock news one evening. This too will help gold.
Wednesday, January 8, 2020
Fed: Outlook and Lies
The final minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting for 2019 is very useful because it gives their assessment of the economy and their outlook for 2020. Are you wearing glasses? Is your vision 20/20? Those are good questions, but a better one is do you believe what the Fed says?
Bridge in Brooklyn
If you believe in the minutes of the Fed, you need to read this report. I also have a bridge for sale from Brooklyn to Manhattan. It is another in my ongoing attempt to get the public to understand that we need to End the Fed!
Minutes
First, they said that their policy would be appropriate. This is a great word since it leaves you to go in any direction. If they seek to lower rates, all they have to say is in their estimation that this is appropriate. If they feel a rate hike is needed, again, all they have to say is their decision was appropriate. In other words, B.S.!
They go on to say that they are keeping a close watch on international trade and the global economy that is showing signs of weakness. Dear Reader, their mandate from Congress is to keep our economy growing with attention to unemployment and inflation not foreign policy. It is true that the global economy is effected by our dollar and the Fed is directly responsible for the value in the dollar. However, central banks throughout the world also effect currency values and world trade. There are many other factors, but the Fed never gets into details.
They keep harping on the aspect that our economy fails to achieve a 2% inflation rate. This is their biggest lie as I will point out later. In conjunction with their 2% target, the Fed says that they will leave rates unchanged in 2020. This is another lie as history will show. They also say that they are worried about the lack of inflation longer term. They see unemployment falling even further and GDP growing modestly around 2% with consumer spending holding at 3% into the third quarter.
None of the members, voting or non-voting see a rate cut in 2020. They all agree to watch and provide liquidity to the repo or overnight loans. The Fed has kept the lid on this recent problem. They have reported that they have provided over $365 billion since mid-December into this segment of the market. This action keeps short term rates from rising, but the mass numbers also indicate that something is not kosher. El-Erian believes this action is a form of QE (I agree) and he feels the number is closer to $600 billion. That is a lot of money in a two week span.
What We See
The Fed says that they will address the market in an appropriate fashion. They further say that their will be no rate changes for 2020. This implies that they have supplied the market with the proper interest rates for the current pace of growth into the next year. People, back in October of 2019, the Fed minutes said no rate changes until June 2020. Now, again implying due to their action, no rate changes for the entire year. Let me remind you that in December of 2018 the Fed said that they see a return to normalized rates as they began to hike interest rates. This policy was kept for three months as the 10-Year Bill hit 2.75%. They also reported in March 2019 that they saw interest rates at 3% in 2021. The next month they changed course again. They began to lower rates. The 10-Year Bill is now at 1.92%. I see it testing the all-time low of 1,51%. Our native Americans said it best, "They talk with fork tongue."
They seek to increase their power by touching on foreign policy and the global economy. Power corrupts! This is not in their mandate. They just seek to increase their power over the economy and nation.
They reported that they see a failure in our economy to approach their target 2% inflation. This gets me so angry.
First, they do not include the three biggest needs of everyone and every corporation in America: energy, food and shelter. We need each every day. Let me digress.
Energy: gasoline has been stable with no spikes energy prices. We all need energy. This is good.
Food: prices have declined for eggs, milk and diary in general, however vegetables has gone up in price along with necessary items like coffee, meat and poultry. Overall, prices higher than 2%.
Shelter: the cost to rent eats up to one-half of income in many locations. 44% of households are renters. 71% of wage earners cannot afford to buy a new house. Prices are up and getting worse each year. In addition, state taxes are so high that it caused the federal government to put a cap on this state deduction. The homeless situation is telegraphing us all that our dollar cannot purchase shelter. This is terrible with a worse outlook.
Bottom line: 2 out of three ain't good. Sorry, Meatloaf.
With that said there are many others who see inflation on the horizon of 2020. Among them is Brendan Brown of Macro Hedge Advisors. Of course, bigger names back the Fed like Goldman Sachs. They said and I quote, "The economy is now almost recession proof." If that does not get you worried, how about the following aspects in our economy.
Cable TV = will be up 3% according to Consumer Reports.
Streaming = will rise by 12%.
Housing = will rise another 5.4% from CoreLogic.
Stamps = will rise to .55-cents.
UPS = will cost another 4.9% more.
Sporting Events = Did you see what two pitchers received? Tickets +
Prescription Drugs = up another 4.5% - Medicare = up $9.
Employee Health Insurance = up 5%.
Soda = increased by state taxes around the country.
Cars = up and could go higher due to tariffs.
Global Travel = up 1% to 2% Hotels = up 1% to 3%.
Colleges = State = $11,200 Out of State = $27,120 = up 4%
Nation's Parks = rising $5 to $10 dollars.
All of the above and so much more all say, "End the Fed!"
Bridge in Brooklyn
If you believe in the minutes of the Fed, you need to read this report. I also have a bridge for sale from Brooklyn to Manhattan. It is another in my ongoing attempt to get the public to understand that we need to End the Fed!
Minutes
First, they said that their policy would be appropriate. This is a great word since it leaves you to go in any direction. If they seek to lower rates, all they have to say is in their estimation that this is appropriate. If they feel a rate hike is needed, again, all they have to say is their decision was appropriate. In other words, B.S.!
They go on to say that they are keeping a close watch on international trade and the global economy that is showing signs of weakness. Dear Reader, their mandate from Congress is to keep our economy growing with attention to unemployment and inflation not foreign policy. It is true that the global economy is effected by our dollar and the Fed is directly responsible for the value in the dollar. However, central banks throughout the world also effect currency values and world trade. There are many other factors, but the Fed never gets into details.
They keep harping on the aspect that our economy fails to achieve a 2% inflation rate. This is their biggest lie as I will point out later. In conjunction with their 2% target, the Fed says that they will leave rates unchanged in 2020. This is another lie as history will show. They also say that they are worried about the lack of inflation longer term. They see unemployment falling even further and GDP growing modestly around 2% with consumer spending holding at 3% into the third quarter.
None of the members, voting or non-voting see a rate cut in 2020. They all agree to watch and provide liquidity to the repo or overnight loans. The Fed has kept the lid on this recent problem. They have reported that they have provided over $365 billion since mid-December into this segment of the market. This action keeps short term rates from rising, but the mass numbers also indicate that something is not kosher. El-Erian believes this action is a form of QE (I agree) and he feels the number is closer to $600 billion. That is a lot of money in a two week span.
What We See
The Fed says that they will address the market in an appropriate fashion. They further say that their will be no rate changes for 2020. This implies that they have supplied the market with the proper interest rates for the current pace of growth into the next year. People, back in October of 2019, the Fed minutes said no rate changes until June 2020. Now, again implying due to their action, no rate changes for the entire year. Let me remind you that in December of 2018 the Fed said that they see a return to normalized rates as they began to hike interest rates. This policy was kept for three months as the 10-Year Bill hit 2.75%. They also reported in March 2019 that they saw interest rates at 3% in 2021. The next month they changed course again. They began to lower rates. The 10-Year Bill is now at 1.92%. I see it testing the all-time low of 1,51%. Our native Americans said it best, "They talk with fork tongue."
They seek to increase their power by touching on foreign policy and the global economy. Power corrupts! This is not in their mandate. They just seek to increase their power over the economy and nation.
They reported that they see a failure in our economy to approach their target 2% inflation. This gets me so angry.
First, they do not include the three biggest needs of everyone and every corporation in America: energy, food and shelter. We need each every day. Let me digress.
Energy: gasoline has been stable with no spikes energy prices. We all need energy. This is good.
Food: prices have declined for eggs, milk and diary in general, however vegetables has gone up in price along with necessary items like coffee, meat and poultry. Overall, prices higher than 2%.
Shelter: the cost to rent eats up to one-half of income in many locations. 44% of households are renters. 71% of wage earners cannot afford to buy a new house. Prices are up and getting worse each year. In addition, state taxes are so high that it caused the federal government to put a cap on this state deduction. The homeless situation is telegraphing us all that our dollar cannot purchase shelter. This is terrible with a worse outlook.
Bottom line: 2 out of three ain't good. Sorry, Meatloaf.
With that said there are many others who see inflation on the horizon of 2020. Among them is Brendan Brown of Macro Hedge Advisors. Of course, bigger names back the Fed like Goldman Sachs. They said and I quote, "The economy is now almost recession proof." If that does not get you worried, how about the following aspects in our economy.
Cable TV = will be up 3% according to Consumer Reports.
Streaming = will rise by 12%.
Housing = will rise another 5.4% from CoreLogic.
Stamps = will rise to .55-cents.
UPS = will cost another 4.9% more.
Sporting Events = Did you see what two pitchers received? Tickets +
Prescription Drugs = up another 4.5% - Medicare = up $9.
Employee Health Insurance = up 5%.
Soda = increased by state taxes around the country.
Cars = up and could go higher due to tariffs.
Global Travel = up 1% to 2% Hotels = up 1% to 3%.
Colleges = State = $11,200 Out of State = $27,120 = up 4%
Nation's Parks = rising $5 to $10 dollars.
All of the above and so much more all say, "End the Fed!"
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