Wednesday, December 25, 2024

Odds and Ends: December 2024

- The CEOs of the top four tech companies met with President-elect Trump at his home in West Palm         Beach last week. The group consisted of Meta, Amazon, Google and Apple. The clues were there all       along, but to what end, we can only guess. One thing is for sure. We cannot blame or get mad at lazy       people, they didn't do anything.

With that said, we, at Evolution wish you all a Merry Christmas! For those of other denominations, Happy Holidays!  

Before we end this short version, we leave a suggestion for those who have to work, for those who are far from home and for those who are isolated in our fragmented society. You can find solace and help in the Bible. When you are facing...

Anger: Ephesians 4:31-32, James 1:19-20 and Proverbs 15:1.                                                                    Anxiety: 1 Peter 5:7, Matthew 11:28-30 and Proverbs 12:25.                                                                      Crisis: Jeremiah 29:11-13, Lamentat 3:55-58 and Proverbs 3:5-6.                                                              Depression: Nehmiah 8:10, Hosea 6:1 and Psalm 5-6.                                                                                Discouragement: Romans 12: 11-12, John 14:27 and Deuteronomy 31:8.                                                  Fear: Isaiah 41:13, Joshua 1:9 and Psalm 461-3.                                                                                          Grief: 1 Thessalonians 4: 13-18, John 11: 25-27 and Matthew 5:4                                                              Illness: Acts 3:16, James 5:16 and Jeremiah 17:14.                                                                                      Loneliness: 2 Corinthians 6:18 and Deuteronomy 31:6...Peace  


Wednesday, December 18, 2024

Quantum Change

 - A group of research scientists decided to approach their computer in a different way. Instead of seeking money investing ideas that would ensure their futures, they would ask the computer to solve man's oldest question: Is their a God? The computer readout said, "Insufficient power and data." They took their findings to the UN. They sought to get the world behind their idea. The UN got all nations to connect their energy power grid to the lab's computer. When ready, they asked again, "Computer, is their a God?" At first, there was a silence. Then, the computer had a rumble sound. The scientists looked for the tape readout. There was nothing. They asked again, "Computer, is their a God?" A loud voice was heard, "Now, there is."

- Old joke from the 1960s.

Quantum Computing

The idea has been around for a long time. The reason was speed. Regular comuters chips use bits. This is a binary system of just two levels, 0 or 1. It is safe, but slow compared to the idea of quantum. Early research on quantum came up with the same problem. Errors can find their way into the system from the operation. It could be just air.

Quantum exploded onto the news last week. Anything with the word in it went crazy. IBM has led the way, but last week news circulated from Google in the US and Rigetti Computing in the UK. Behind the scenes, there are many firms that trade based on finding the quantum problem. Strangely, there was no news from China. I'm sure that they are working on it or they will resort to their playbook, steal it by hacking. Then, they deny. Anyway...

Enter Willow Chip...

...by Google. It uses 105 qubits. This system allows this chip to operate on multiple levels. The speed is like a race between a toy dog and an Afghan. Google says that it addresses errors, so the solutions are clean.  Don't go out to buy! Applications are years away and as I will show you, any stock with quantum attached to it, had a huge runup last week with the quantum news. It is never wise to chase a stock. If you like what you research, then be patient. If it never retraces, forget it. Safe with capital is key.

Small Sample:

RGTI (Rigetti) It rose 461% to close last Friday at $7.16. There is a gap at $1.90. Gaps usually get retested. This is an entry point if you are so inclined.                                                                                    IONQ (IonQ Inc) It rose 93% from $16 to $33 last Friday.                                                                          QUBT (Quantum Computing) It went parabolic. From $1 dollar to close last Friday at $6.70. UP 539%!

There are other firms that attach themselves to quantum like Wisekey (WKEY). The Swiss firm deals in security, but it too enjoyed a ride higher. It rose 263% from $2.50 to $7.84 last Friday. 

D-Wave Computing will integrate your program. It rose 300% from $2.00 to $5.00. 

This week the parabolic moves continued and extended to chips stocks like Broadcom (AVGO). Do your diligence, but be patient. It will be years before profits and all these companies lose money to which will lead to a retracement. Enough said. However, their is one point that we, at Evolution will leave you with - Bitcoin.

Bitcoin...

...uses the SHA-256 crytographic algorithm. If quantum becomes a reality, it can crack the security of bitcoin. A hacker will steal yours and everyone eles's capital.  Bitcoin says that it has a protocol with updates to address vulnerabilities. Yeah, like nuclear is safe? We told you in the past many reasons for not accepting bitcoin. We believe in gold. Now, you have some reality to bitcoin. Peace.

Wednesday, December 11, 2024

Trouble in River City

 - There are two kinds of people in this world. Those who have loaded guns and those who dig.

- Blondie: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly.

Culture and AI

The title is from the Music Man. The words of wisdom is from big, Clint Eastwood. The two cultural hit movies carry inter-generational realities. The lead character in the Music Man is a con man. He cries a half-truth that resonates. This is happening in politics around the globe. The strong military nations know the loaded gun today is nuclear. Their problem is when politics crosses over with economic burdens. The intersection becomes like a chemistry lab experiment that turns combustible. 

AI has a danger of bots spreading propaganda and misinformation that comes in half-truths. If it resonates, the consequences could be more than fatal. 

Geo-Political Picture...

...at the moment it is reaching the crossover point of half-truths of politics along with economic worries to violent actions. This is a dangerous intersection. You can see the effects.

The war in Europe is escalating. The war in the Middle East could only hold a cease fire for a few hours. Syria has reexploded. After the dictator was disposed and before the new Syrian leader could demonstrate his intentions for the nation, the war-monger, Netanyahu began bombing Syria and annexing land. Netanyahu says Israel needs more buffer space. His actions only foretells more tension and conflict. Israel needs to get rid of this man or they will never see peace. There are other conflicts like in Sudan. The list of political disturbances and violent outbursts grows each week.

Recap:

There are three nations in southeast Africa that have serious political unrest. Mauritius has economic problems everywhere. Mozambique had protestors cause a blackout. Somalia is up and down. The loaded gun is aimed by China with its Silk Road project. China is using the Greek Trojan Horse. They come offering financing for pet projects and when the bill comes due, they steal what they were after. Russia also has an appearance. The two (bad bandits) are seeking natural resources. 

The ugly has the rope around the neck throughout Europe. There are political problems in France, Germany, Poland, Hungary, Moldova, Italy and Romania. In South America, Argentina always has inflation and economic situations. Brazil is playing cat and mouse with China and the US. The Korean peninsula has the disconnect of government with its citizens. The situation in South Korea has the eyes of North Korea, but that nation also has a serious disconnect between its government and citizens. In the communist nation, the internet is opening the eyes and mind of the lies of its government. This knowledge is already known in Hong Kong, but China has a strong hand of oppression. Where is the good when we need him?

The US is caught between the transformation of a new government and the old administration. We will soon learn the phony promise by Trump of ending the war in Europe on day one. We will soon find out what we stated in the past. His tariffs will be tokenism.

Meanwhile...

The stock market shows its disconnect to reality with its Santa Claus rally. The con men of Wall Street are giving half-truths about firms that have PEs off the charts. The only index that is not in sync is the IWM or small caps. This is a market tell. If the economy was truly strong, the small caps would be out-performing the large caps.  The one important indicator is the dollar. In Europe, the Polish leading candidate seeks cheap money as does Trump in the US. The Fed has their next meeting on the 17th and 18th of December. They have already given three rate cuts which was their dot plot forecast. Whatever the Fed does will not change the trouble in River City.  Peace.

Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Next Plague

- When humor goes so goes civilization.

- Erma Bombeck

The words of wisdom from above and if they are really good, come from above. We will need some laughs to keep our heads together because the economic outlook keeps seeing plagues.

First Plague

You could argue that the Taft-Hartley Act of 1947 reopened the coffin for American labor. It paved the road for outsourcing. The first site was the South with the right-to-work laws. Then, any foreign soil that offered a manipulative currency and or, land concessions, tax privileges and similar bribes.

After the 1950s, Europe was on better footing. However, their big industries needed a boost. They found it in the US. With a little state supported help, manufacturers in Europe and Japan realized that they could undercut US corporations. The slow destruction of the manufacturing power that was the US began. It would go full force when President Clinton signed NAFTA trade agreement. Millions of middle class jobs were lost and the exodus formed the Rust Belt. The last firms are being killed off with the lie of globalization. Many of these people went to states like Florida because that state does not tax income. The state boomed its population by over 25% from 1980 to 1990. It is now the third largest state by numbers. This group of citizens will learn that service orientated jobs is a life of subsistance.   

Meanwhile...

The service industry and housing grew. Developers grabbed any commercial property that had traffic flow. Retail chains bid for the leases to these sites. We built too many. The overexpansion led to creative destruction within the retail field.

Joesph Schumpeter

He developed the idea of "creative destruction" from Marx who claimed industrialization would be its own destruction. To give you an example, think of vinyl records. The innovation of the eight track put the end to records. Tapes took less space to store and move. Then, the disc put the eight track out of business - creative destruction.

In economic terms, manufacturing jobs were gone. People turned to find something else to get bye. It is like Charles Darwin's, "Origin of Species." When one food source vanishes, animals sought and adapted to find something else. 

This opened the door to the service and hospitality industry. There will arise two different problems. For retail, it was competition. Everyone wanted to be the next Sears, but they were all selling the same imported crap. Advertising helped, but in the long run, only a fad like with designer jeans. The same cut-throat action for consumers showed itself in the kingpin of shopping, the mall. The over-supply led to the destruction. 

When the new millennium arrived, Wall Street discounted the loss of old economic icons like Sears and jumped on the band wagon of Walmart. They hopped onto online retailers like Amazon. Internet shopping has added to the slow death of brick and mortar locations. The early advantage of no sales tax began the razor cuts into the retail sector. Job losses mounted as strip shopping and malls died off.  Wall Street paid no attention on how citizens existed. Sadly, many faked a disability and took an early retirement with a life on the dole. Many others get by with the help of food banks or cut rent costs by living on the street or RVs. They suffer because there are few wage livng jobs. In addition, the few service jobs available are in competition with excessive immigration that only cuts wages and everyone suffers. We, at Evolution have chronicled the loss of retail jobs and the catastrophy continues. The first list is the firms who refused to outsource, but with no help from our government, they too are moving offshore to complete this plague. The second grouping is the ongoing struggle to survive.

Harley Davidson, Whirlpool and its subsidery, Kitchen Aid, Levi's, Wrangler, Crayola, Wilson Sporting Goods, New Balance, Craftsman Tools, Converse, Gibson Guitar and yes, even Hershey's.

Retail Closing: 

American Freight is closing.                                                                                                                        Advanced Auto Parts is dropping 700 stores.                                                                                            7-Eleven, Denny's, and Best Buy are closing outlets. Macy's, Family Dollar, JC Penny, Foot Locker, Rite Aid, CVS, Walgreens, Victoria's Secret have and continue to close stores. Sears, once over 2,000 is down to one. 

Cargill, the giant in grains is culling jobs. Why, you ask? Because labor costs cut into profits.

The list of banruptcies continue with Spirit Airlines. Each week there is new firms heading toward the economic graveyard of KMart and Radio Shack. As for those of you that may be seeking a better job or just work, keep in mind the wisdom of humor with my favorite, Rodney Dangerfield, "Always watch out for number one, but don't step in number two."   Peace.



Wednesday, November 27, 2024

Odds and Ends: November 2024

- Things do not change; things are made to happen.

- John F. Kennedy (we always remember 22cd. Nov. 1963). 

Market...

...is a go since election day. The three indexes pushed new highs. In addition, the seasonal Santa Clause rally gets underway on Black Friday. The metals and oil both bounced from lows, and yet, King $Dollar is at highs. This is disharmony. Our indicators are indecisive. The only indication of caution in the charts shows all three indexes have gaps. If they get filled, the market drops. 

Geo-political...

...is all bad. Kim Jong, who can't spell thermonuclear, but says, "The US is pushing us in that direction." It gets worse as North Korea has sent weapons and troops to its Communist alley, Russia in the war in Ukraine. We said in our last piece that Europe had better start spending on defense. We do not like being right on such topics, but it is always better to be safe than sorry. We also read this:

China's 4 Red Lines:

In a mesage to Trump, Xi plays his cards on the table. It is the same hand that he displayed to the last three presidents-Taiwan, democracy and human rights, China's path for success and to allow a nation to seek its own development. Later, he added that the global community should return to free trade.

We say, we have addressed Taiwan in an earlier piece. The truth behind the demand for the island lays in the point that those who opposed communism escaped to it. The communists want to complete their victory of 1949. Their party does not allow any other considerations, whether right or wrong. We can see this point front and center in Hong Kong. Another headline reads, "Hong Kong Jails 45 Pro-Democracy Activists." If the communists way is the best, then why can't the party allow other voices? We pray for Jimmy Lai. Trump says that he will get him out of jail. We can only hope. 

China's path for success gets the clarification with the additional message of free trade. There is no such thing as free trade and China is the worst violator in global trading. They use laws, currency manipulation and lending practices to ensure companies can meet export targets. The last point is appease a new alley to the BRICS, Iran. The nation like North Korea seeks to develop weapons of mass destruction. These points are tension forming. The US will never accept them. Then, Xi rolls out intimidation while claiming to seek peace. The Dongfeng or east wind missile is pointed at America. 

World Court

at the Hague issued a warrant for the arrest of Prime Minister, Netanyahu for committing a new weapon to war, starvation. He plays the black card, anti-semitism. Just like the communist party, everyone else is wrong and I'm right! In the same week, the US disgraced itself by vetoing a cease-fire call in the Middle East at the UN.

Thanksgiving Day

It will be hard to count blessings at the table on this great holiday, but remember, He is above politics and nations. Peace. 

Wednesday, November 20, 2024

Reflection Time Coming

- The true nobility is being superior to your previous self, not to other men.

- Hindustani proverb


Trump Pump

The market set new records in the three indexes immediately after the election and it is a "go" according to Dow Theory. Last week, the effects of the "feel-good" party ended. Trump's return to power helps the same sectors as his last term: energy, commercial real estate, financials. He opposes "green energy," programs for the poor like food stamps, housing assistance, social security and medicare. Don't fall for his rhetoric on not taxing SS benefits. Republicans are anti-social security and medicare. His tax cuts will cause the dollar to fall in value and that alone will create inflation. This will also push our national deficits even higher. It is obvious that Trump does not read Hindu proverbs or John Wooden's ideas for self-improvement. 

Other Worries

With Jewish relatives in Trump's family, the prime minister of Israel, Netanyahu can continue to annex parts of Palestine with his war-mongering and the backing of the US military. This is a big, big worry. Then, we have Putin with his aggression in Ukraine. Europe had better start spending serious money in national defense. They need to remind Putin that Moscow is within its range.

Trump changes from day-to-day with his thinking on NATO and the UN. His tariffs on China and other nations is only tokenism. It will only cause anger, inflation and world tension. When you decide to do something, you must go all-in or don't even bother. For example, VietNam was a mistake, but the real supidity was doing it have-ass, fighting with hands tied your back. We continued this same idiocy in the Middle-East Wars, both in policy and combat. 

Economy

We have written about our fears like in commercial real estate, lack of quality jobs and protecting sectors from more destruction by foreign subsidized competition. We can see the effects of the phony concept, globalism in the rise of homelessness with the additional problem of excessive immigration. We have an economy that provides subsistance work and pay with no benefits. The "Trump Pump" effect will fall sharply with the cold winds of February and by the Ides of March, public sentiment will follow the fall. The stock market will consolidate around the highs, but Wall St. and Main St. are different animals. 

The lie of growth in consumer spending and GDP lays in price levels. Consumers have to pay more for the same product and therefore the bottom line shows higher spending. It is not. It is the same spending, but the costs by inflation brings a higher total. This data gets mixed into the manipulated formula to show growth in GDP and the economy. It is not. We are not buying eggs, cars or homes. Consumers are doing everything that they can to avoid inflation, but it shows itself everywhere, eventually. The only true indicator and chart is...

King $Dollar

It exploded from the election and October low of $100. to touch a yearly high at $107. and close last Friday at $106.61. This killed off the rally in metals and commodities. Gold broke below resistance at $2585 and oil is falling to resistance at $65. With economies slowly, oil faces a serious challenge. However, the gold rally will return with avengence to hit $3000 in 2025. When nothing tangible gets done to keep the dollar strong, it will sink again.  Keep the faith!  Peace. 

Wednesday, November 13, 2024

Inflation Truth

- Inflation is just like alcoholism. In both cases, when you start drinking or when you start printing too      much money, the good effects come first, the bad effects only come later.

- Milton Friedman, economist (one of the best: JFL)

Inflation

To begin any discussion on the rise of prices, one must go to the root, product and demand for product. The law of supply and demand is a basic truth for any economy. The problem is the misuse of the information. Can you show proof, you ask? 

The truth of the matter is supply and demand does not change very much year to year. A nation and more specifically our nation, will sell the same amount of cars, washers and dryers, etc. every year. The growth in population or immigration are only the real tangibles that can add or subtract the totals.  Yes, a new product will change an outlook for a individual company, but items come and go with fads and copy-cat competition. There is also outside the normal situations like COVID or Bird Flu. If you look at the price of eggs due to Bird Flu, supply shrunk but demand was constant. Friedman said that inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few product. The chicken disease has pushed prices higher. However, consumers seek to evade inflation. They turn to pancakes or cereal or some other substitution. If I had the data on how many eggs were sold for 2024, I wager to bet that the total number is far less than 2020.  

Trump jumped on data like this in his campaign with the question, "Are you better off today than four years ago?" His opposition countered his idea for tariffs with the suggestion that tariffs will cause a rise in prices as producers will pass on the tax increases to you, the consumer. What they said is true, but Trump's point is to make US producers return to America. Just like we gained lower prices with imports that kept inflation in-check, a return of home-producing will pivot the pendulum for a future better economy in the US. By outsourcing, we lost social mobility, the middle-class, family life, a rise in homelessness, poverty and the rise in crime.

The only problem with Trump's tariffs is they are tokenism. To kill a disease, you need to cut it out. Our tariffs should not only be against China, but the whole world because they use our nation as a dumping ground to help their economy. They should be so high that producers could not evade the tax by shifting production to other foreign nations. Anyway, enough on supply and demand. Nations will always seek to gain an edge by currency manipulation, local laws and subsidies. This is life. We are guilty too. So, if  supply and demand is basically constant, where does inflation come from? 

Labor

After the costs of goods, labor is the next biggest expense. Dear Reader, do not look at the contract between Boeing and their workers as the standard. It is not. Regionalism with the cost of housing is a newer concern for producers and labor. Seattle's housing just like the Silicon Valley is extremely high. Workers cannot afford to live where they are employed. Housing costs has multiple supply chains with too many foreign suppliers, environmental issues like trees and lumber, infrastructure. This needs to be addressed for the health of the nation, but we are talking about labor costs. Generally, labor gets few wage increases. A standard raise has a range of 3% to 5%. Therefore, this could result in higher prices, but in the same price range. Sometimes, producers will eat this cost to maintain market niche. We conclude that rising labor costs can add to inflation, but nothing out of the ordinary as work wage increases are spread out throughout the nation and they come at different times. So, where does this lead too?

Federal Reserve

This crooked cabal was started with the idea to protect the wealthy and bankers in case their greed causes a money crisis. It has evolved to be a tool for politicians to make promises like tax cuts with the inside knowledge that the "money system" will cover the tab. Congress spends (both parties are guilty), the Treasury prints bonds for the spending and the Federal Reserve buys the bonds to conclude the transaction. 

Our government is so irresponsible that we do not even produce a budget and worse, we are running deficits of $2 trillion per year. Just to balance the budget, we need the combination of spending cuts and an increase in taxes to make ends meet.

Deficits

They are mostly financed by the Fed's creation of new money. They are guilty of another consequence in running the show. They pay banks not to use their money to which hurts the economy. Demand deposits in 2019 totaled $15.3 trillion. Today that figure is $21.1 trillion. My math says that is an increase of 38 percent. This is the root for inflation and why prices rose around 22% in the past three years. The Fed is printing 7% more every year to which eventually leads to a 7% devaluation of our purchasing power. Inflation is not going away until this practice stops. 

Under the auspices of "crisis management," the Federal Reserve has added 60 percent to the money supply and increased its balance sheet by 85 percent in just 16 years. 

Yes, you read that right. The Federal Reserve was founded in 1913. In the 95 years between then and 2008, just 40 percent of the money supply was created. In the subsequent 16 years, between 2008 and 2024, we have almost "tripled" the money supply. No wonder that we have inflation! Join our meme, "End the Fed!"  Peace.