Odds and Ends: May 2025

 - You can spend and live the way you want, but one day you will face a bill.

- Sebastian (Evolution of Democracy)

Many Types of Bills

Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that France, UK and Canada is wrong. He stopped short of including the US even though President Trump agrees with the above three concerning Gaza and the Middle East. He doesn't want to lose all his free weapons and aid. The World Court has already labeled Netanyahu a genocide criminal and we worried that his real intention with the war on Hamas was to grab more land. He showed his colors by stating that his army will occupy all of Gaza. He is an ego maniac. Everybody is wrong except him.

Hats Off...

...Thomas Friedman, the opinion writer for the N.Y. Times. This courageous, Jewish journalist wrote an open letter in his column. He referred to Netanyahu when he said, "Israel is not our alley." He means the way he has conducted the conflict has put us in a terrible position. We agree. His bill is overdo. Israel needs to vote him out of office, for good. 

End of Penny?

It now costs almost a nickel to mint a penny. Trump has ended any new circulation. Speaking of the nickel, it will soon join the penny in economic purgatory. Estimates are over 13-cents to make a nickel. We can put the blame clearly on the Federal Reserve and both of our political parties. Their combined actions of not protecting American workers, debt spending and give-a-ways to the rich is destroying the purchasing power of the dollar that can be seen with inflation and our on-going, rising, disastrous debt. This is not all on President Trump, but he showed his true colors with the phony name, "Big Beautiful Bill." When you offer more tax cuts to the rich that will explode our deficits, yet again, this is irresponsible.

We predict this will lead to an international currency crisis. It will give incentive to those who oppose Trump like the EU. It plays into our enemies hand. Led by China along with the BRICS, they will see their objective as another piece of America is damaged. Together, their solution will be a new reserve currency under the IMF. They will issue a basket currency of the leading nations. Each will get a percentage. The US may be the highest percentage, but our dollar will be devalued to around 89-cents. To put that in perspective, it was $110 in January and closed at 99.11 last Friday. Trump's tax cuts will end up being a tax on everyone. It will create another 15% in inflation. Stop this madness!

Bias Proof

CBS news network has shown the door to its CEO. Why, you ask? Because her political views did not follow her superiors. This shows network bias. It is not just Fox. Influence is rampant in America. Dear Reader, we try to offer you the truth, but with so much confusion, this is difficult.

Love in Action - Netherlands

His life portrayed the concept and the Dutch are living examples of love in action. It is taught within their culture and school system to be grateful for all the US soldiers who died to liberate their country from the Nazi's. Their citizens adopt a grave in the Margraten Cemetery of all US military who died fighting on their soil. Every year on the US Memorial Day, the adoptees visit the grave stone and place a flower on the site. We say, "God bless them."

Meanwhile,

Walgreens has begun closing 1200 stores. UPS is laying off 20,000 workers. As we have shown you in previous pieces, layoffs are happening globally. Japan's Panasonic is shredding 10,000. Sweden's Volvo is cutting 3,000 jobs. That is a big number for a small auto maker. We see the recent rally in the market running out of juice with falling volume. Hope you had a nice, holiday weekend... Peace.

Bonds: In Rubble, In Inflation

- The magic of compounding interest is truly the eighth wonder of the world.

- Albert Einstein

Bonds

This is something that we, at Evolution rarely discuss, investing in bonds. We have mentioned them briefly. The most recent is from Brazil with their environmental idea to back trees. They eat CO2. Their bond is devoted to the preservation of forests. Good idea.

There are many types of bonds: national government, corporate and even local and state issues. Bonds are a conservative investment. Generally, they are safe, but greed as weakened the borders of safety. We have "junk" bonds that pay a great yield, but a mishap can give you nothing or pennies after years of litigation. We got stocks for gambling. You want a safe paying investment that compounds your money. with that said, the landscape is constantly changing. We looked at two that we like.  

One of the other, new ventures is from Fermat Capital Management. The company believes a market for catastrophe bonds (cats) will grow 20% this year with future growth almost ensured. John Seo, managing director is convinced that inflation will be the catalyst. Destruction by nature and the rebuilding will face higher prices for materials, not to mention, insurance. His bond is an aid for insurance firms and investors. He sees $60 billion in need for 2025. His firm also offers an exchange-traded fund based on cat bonds. In addition, the bonds are structured to US Treasury yields. If they rise, so does his cat bonds. His firm has attracted big players in reinsurance. Swiss Re insures bonds. They are working with the firm to offer new, innovative products for growth in this arena. 

I-Bonds

This is what we like because they can explode in yield when inflation appears. They are backed by the US. We also like the ability to track information that effects bonds. The problem with foreign bonds is data is not always accurate. Here, in the US, we can receive and verify info. Now, I-Bonds do not pay a high interest rate, especially when inflation is low, but people do not understand one important aspect. The rate is adjusted twice a year. This acts like a CD or short term bond. So, if inflation picks up, you get rewarded. This can be explosive. When inflation appeared during the Biden administration, the rate jumped to 9.6%. Wow! Yay!  ...Peace.      

Gold: It's in the Constitution

- no state shall make any thing but gold and silver coin a tender payment of debts. 

- US Constitution

There's More

There are 7 clauses that the Founders put into the constitution about precious metals. They hated the idea of fiat, but greed, ego and stupidity runs deep in our government leaders. The US Treasury redefines legal tender statutorily as all coins and currency issued by Congress. This envokes the right of "sovereignty" over the nation. It does not have that right as our revolution was to take power from government and to be given to the people. 

Why Gold?

There are many reasons, but at Evolution our belief is in the wisdom of the Founders. They feared debt and gold was a natural balance to government spending to curtail debt. 

The Federal Reserve is fiat. They are a crooked cabal that banks favor because it gives them access to riches that they have not had to "work" to receive. This is why we never put stock into Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan Chase as they have sold their soul to fiat and the central bank concept. The Fed is also their insurance policy if they screw up like they have repeatedly done. It allows banks to privatize the profits and socialize the losses. We say, "End the Fed!"

There are other, more closer to home reasons to invest in gold. The list is led by the US Dollar. Our debt is approaching unpayable levels. There is serious challenges to its reserve status. In addition, something is afoot. If you recall, President Trump stated that he wanted to inventory the gold supply in Fort Knox. We have heard nothing further. Then, we read about mass shipments of gold from London to the US. We hear that Germany may want its gold that is held in New York vaults to come back to the Motherland. We read that China is backing Shanghai Gold Exchange to be the premier trading center for gold. The challenges to the reserve status of the dollar is two-fold. The BRICS alliance is seeking to replace the dollar in trading. This is slow, but it gains momentum with every mistake by the Fed. The IMF has already developed a replacement for the dollar with its "Special Drawing Rights (SDR)". This is a basket of currencies with the world's top economies. If either transpires, the value of our dollar would shrink. We would feel inflation of about 30%. This screams that you better have some gold because it always holds its value.  

Fed Now

Have you heard about the new power that the Federal Reserve has? With Fed Now, the Fed can control all your financial data. By having 900 banks submit to the plan, they have surveillance of you and any transactions you make. This is similar to the Chinese dictatorial control with social credit and digital money. This leads to tyranny. They can freeze your money and assets. If you have gold, you will have a life boat. So, let us look at gold, where it is and going.    

Important Price Levels

Gold closed at $3324 last Friday. It just made a new all-time high at $3500. If you recall, we predicted that gold would climb to $3400 when it was just $2400. We see $4000 coming. With that said, it will not be a straight up move. We see a retracement to around $2950. Why, you ask? 

Silver. It's last high has not been pierced. Silver fails when it reaches $34. It cannot break $35. Gold cannot go higher without silver breaking to a new high. Keep in mind that silver is the most manipulated metal. There are legally tendered silver notes circulating at 378 to 1. This means that there are 378 chances for a crisis due to supply that does not match the circulating notes. There's more. For the past few years, there has been a shortage of silver needed that is not produced. Because precious metals can be melted to be reused, the recycling has covered the demand. There is a need for 200 million more ounces every year. This is a ticking time bomb along with our dollar. Speaking of which, the dollar closed at 100.34 last Friday. We see a bounce up tp 103 and then, a fall to 98. Remember, a higher dollar is a lid on gold. A lower dollar opens the spigot. One indicator that you can use to relate to the price of gold is GDX. It just popped from a breakout level at $35. This will be support for the next move up after a retracement.

Related

Do you recall the Basel III accord?  Well, this July activates the agreement that allows banks to include any gold that they possess as a Tier 1 asset for reserve requirements. There are a few ways to look at this agreement. We see the unbievable point that the anti-gold, fiat bankers had to have an agreement to call and place gold as a top level asset? At least, the deal was made. This will create a floor for gold...Peace.

Trump 2.0: Thinking and Tariffs - 100 Days

- Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome.

- Albert Einstein

His Edicts

President Trump is correct to change course on imports. Warren Buffett is wrong to say that trade is being weaponized by tariffs. Trump is using Einstein logic. We suffer $1,000,000,000 in deficits through trade. Obviously, there is something wrong. We are not the Washington Generals playing the global, Globetrotters. The global community, especially China is using our economy to save theirs. We will suffer like an addict under withdrawals. We need to return to self-sufficiency or we are doomed. With our opinion stated, we turn to two reports. One is from a conference by leading professionals. The other is from the brokerage firm, Morgan Stanley. 

Conference

They offered four points. The first is debatable. They pointed out the aspect that the stock market can predict the future. The market is in a downtrend. This leads to a recession call. Their second feeling is the recent stock losses with many in bear territory sets a vibe for recession even if Trump says that he does not follow the market. The third centers on the Federal Reserve. Trump has called for Powell to lower interest rates. If you recall, Trump appointed Powell. Now, in heated moments, he calls for Powell to resign or be fired. Trump wants cheap money. It will help with mortgages and housing, but at the same time, it will create inflation. Lastly, the group suggested to watch the dollar. We agree on this point. It has been weakening. A weak dollar makes imports more expensive. This is a tough, Catch 22 situation. The conference did not address the college funding politics. We, at Evolution feel that the government should end all funding to traditional colleges. We feel the money should go to vocational schooling. We need robot technicians, solar and wind who can design, build and repair. We need more tech people and jobs so they can apply their knowledge. 

Morgan Stanley

The group reminded us that us that President Trump signed 130 Executive Orders in his first 95 days. They reasoned that Trump comes at you from many different ways, but he only seeks a few of his edicts. The question is what policies will stick? The biggest is his tariffs. The percentage changes from week-to-week. They feel the 10% will be the final number. This will relate to what deregulation that Trump seeks. The president wants domestic manufacturing, but it will take time. The struggle will be when the imports cause shortages and the courage of the president to stay on course. Keep in mind that July 9th is the 90 day amnesty period. Dear Reader, there are two more deadline dates. One is the 31st of December 2025. The original tax cuts end. If Trump uses the tariff revenue for the tax cuts for his rich friends, we are doomed as well as $King Dollar. The second concerns the debt ceiling. It is due again and will be a big debate this summer. The group feels inflation will return with the possibility of stagflation. As you know, we, at Evolution have told you that we have been in stagflation since the end of 2022. Of course, this firm is part of the staus quo. By the way, the Fed meets today. We think that their will be no interest rate change, but Powell will appease Trump by saying the possibility is on the table.   

Meanwhile,

The Israeli cabinet has voted to occupy Gaza. The government is Ben Netanyahu. He uses any excuse to do what I fear, the annexation of all Gaza or a big chunk of it. If he does this, he will embolded Israel's enemies. It is no wonder that he does not want to recognize the Palestines. He wants their land. This is a sad day for the remaining hostages and peace in the Middle East. 

The market has returned to the rally mode. However, the price level is either reaching or is at resistance. The Dow's price point is 41,500. The SPX is 5800 and the Transports is 16,000. Pay attention! The tariff effect will not be felt or noticed until late May and June. Peace.

Odds and Ends: April 2025

- The strokes of the pen need deliberations as much as the sword needs swiftness.

- Julia Ward Howe

Related...

...to the above quote. This is to all leaders in regards to trade and conflicts in Europe, Middle East and Africa. You need to pause and think about all the possibilities of decisions and choose a course that reflects the best possible outcome and not a political course. 

Meanwhile

The US housing market continues to decline and fell 11.9% for new homes in March and 5.9% in all sales. Usually, it takes a long time for related data to affect stock prices. Now, we are seeing home builders begin to crater. Look at Lenar! It was $190 last September and it touched $100 in April.  How about the upscale developer, Toll Brothers? It was $167 last November and it fell below $90 in April. In our consumer society, a home is our biggest purchase and no one is buying and most cannot afford to buy. There is also one important piece of info. The stock market is now 2x the GDP. There have been only two other times. It happened here in 1929 and in Japan in 1989. Market is overpriced!

You need another example? Check out Zoom (ZM). It was $600 in 2020 and rising. It is now $77. Ouch!

Related

We have posted the continuing disaster in our retail sector, but now, we read layoffs in tech. These are high paying jobs that give people the means to purchase a new home to which creates more supply and choices for the market. It is a sad fact that the US and Canada are one, two or last place among advanced societies in providing housing per 1,000 of its citizens. 

Even though Intel announced bad news concerning its labor force as the firm is laying off 21,000 workers or 20%, we read some good news. Apple will invest $500 billion in America. Yea! They are going to build a new factory that will provide 20,000 jobs in the next four years. They shoud contact the experience of the Intel people. Before we relax, our cabal "friends" in the banking industry are setting the table for another financial crisis. 

Banking Cabal

They are quietly putting mischief in play. They are packaging and selling new securities. These include corporate loans, credit card debt, even golf carts. While this may blow up in their face, they don't worry. They know the Fed will have their back. When they do, you should realize why we say, "End the Fed!"

Brazil

The nation is offering a new bond that is tied to saving trees that eat up CO2. The money will aid nations who seek to save their forests.

Salt

Yes, salt. Sodium batteries could be the answer that EVs seek? Nation Energy is close to a solution.

Corn Fuel

We had the additive, ethanol for cars for a long time. Now, Lanza Tech is making ethanol jet fuel. However, it is still a work in progress.

DOGE

The "Dodge" boy, Musk shows his true love for America by building his new, 3rd. megafactory in...Shanghai. Also, he is cutting back his government duties to devote more time to his auto firm, Tesla. We have nothing against this, but we think that he should look into a merger with an EV charging firm to cover on a national scale. We see this happening in Europe. They worry about China covering the continent with one of their EV charging systems. The Spark Alliance has four European nations forming a partnership. The group has Italy's EV Atlente, Germany's Ionity, Netherland's Fartneed and France's Electra. We like Evgo in America, but we will wait for a price around $2.00. 

Did you know...

...that 90% of US bio-firms get 90% of substances as an import? President Trump should look into Big Pharma as they may not be aligned as a cabal. but they operate as one. 

Finally...

did someone say, "Yea!" This falls under the idiot column. Bill Gates is backing a biotech startup, Savor. They plan to sell a synthetic vegan butter that includes carbon dioxide. I'll pay extra for the real thing, thank you. Peace

Our Biggest Concern

- Debt can exceed the country's ability to pay it off

- Brutus in Anti-Federalist paper to Hamilton

Today

I write this on Saturday, the 19th of April. In the above quote, the warning by Brutus is proving to be true. On this day in 1775, the "Shot Heard Around the World" was fired at Lexington and Concord. Did all the founding fathers risk their lives because egotistical politicians could get elected and re-elected? In the present fight with and over tariffs, the numbers are facts. However, in today's lying and hiding of truth, they are manipulated or just kept of the books. 

Examples

They are everywhere. When LBJ decided to go to war in VietNam, he hid (off the books) the cost of the war. China does the same thing with their debt. The actual amount would say that China is bankrupt. They are not alone. Our Federal Reserve is bankrupt, but they can print money to keep solvent. Bernie Madoff coud not. He destroyed a lot of people. China has a whole nation of Bernie Madoff's. The collapse of the China Evergrande Group in real estate is just one, but it effected millions of Chinese people. The Communist Party does not care, they just print like the Fed. At one time, there were 500 electric auto firms in China. The government subsidized them all. They sought the one who could succeed, grab market share and provide jobs. There are 400 losers. The one positive thing that I will say about China is this: they use debt to buy real things. In contrast, we use debt to buy more debt. 

Brutus, John Adams and Thomas Jefferson...

They all warned about using debt, but the idiot Democrats and Republicans think that they know better than our founders. Their arrogant egos in relationship to our economy and debt tells a different story. For instance, the Biden budget for 2024 stated that our debt as a percentage of GDP was only 6%. This is mamipulation! 

Facts and Numbers are boring, but do not lie.

US budget for 2024 was $6.8 trillion. Our deficit for the year was $1.01 trillion. Dear Reader, basic math says that our deficit was 15% of our budget. The use of GDP pushes the figure to 6%, but that is the manipulation. The trend is frightening. The yearly deficit for 2014 was only $483 billion. This year, the interest alone will exceed one trillion = $1,000,000,000. The annual deficit compounds. The recent trend says that in seven years, 2032, this interest alone will double and the total would be unpayable. The smoking gun points to our trading deficit. Last year, it was $1 trillion and the figure has grown every year. Trump understands numbers. He is correct, but his approch is wrong. Pick a Industry! Save it. Nuetralize the import/export bottom line. If we just do this one aspect, then, we can begin the long road back to stabilized prices and economy.  Peace.  

Market Turning?

- It's the darkest before the dawn

- Thomas Fuller

Tariffs In, Tariffs Out

President Trump's unusual technique for negotiating was on full display last week. "Liberation Day" lasted 24-hours. He changed tune to extend tariffs from being enacted for another 90-days except for China. He added their export bill by increasing the tab to 124% on all merchandise. In some instances, the tariff reaches 145%.  Then, on Saturday, he exempted Chinese exports of cell phones, computers and chips from tariffs. Then, we hear reprieve is temporary? Will we hear the Mama's and Papa's sing come Monday morning?

We stated last week that the market will act with uncertainty. It is up wildly one day only to crash the next. We were right. We are also correct in saying that we have been in a stealth recession since 2022. No one else agrees only you.You see it in the cost of home ownership or in a rental lease. You see it in the items that you want to buy like eggs. You see it in all of your insurance bills from home to auto to health. By the way, water is next. It is no wonder that we do not place trust in the media "experts."

We Suggested

That Trump needs a plan and works the plan. That plan should recognize that our debt problem is a result of importing everything from everywhere for over 50-years. You cannot change things overnight. PICK a TARGET! Work with Congress to protect that industry with the outlook of adding new fields after the first target is fully grounded. The plan may not be finished during your administration, but everyone will know and realize that you put us back on the right path. Now, the market...

Three Signs of a Bear Market

Keep in mind that the market is always biased to be bullish. You saw the whiplash last week to the upside after big down days. The bulls look for Trump to soften the tariffs. They also believe that the Fed will lower interest rates. This is their meme for a higher market. It is the status quo that is always protected. We see a possible bull flag that is extremely bullish forming, but it is too early to be sure.

On the flipside, the volume on down days is greater than the juice upward. The bear call pennant proved to be the right call. The price level is a long ways from the top. Down is the trend until something changes. However, volume in general is very high for both market directions. Uncertainty.

The bears find courage in market breadth. It is turning down. The bears also have Dow Theory on their side. All the indexes are going in the same direction, down. Harmony in the lower keys is a trademark of the Mama's and Papa's. Peace.