Monday, October 29, 2012

Global Danger: 1st Assets, Now Gambling...L&C

I do not promote the idea of the global economy, however I do believe in international trade. Conflict? No! If you cannot produce certain things, lack the resources, wrong climate, ability, whatever, then trading for what you have for what you need is obvious. The problem of free trade or global trading is the manipulation factor and the negative traits of our human character.

When the US was on the gold standard, fiat trading partners not only used local protectionism, but currency manipulation as well as state financed corporations to fleece gold for paper. How can you justify paper for gold? You can't. We never should have allowed fiat dollars for gold backed dollars, but legal issues aside, the "free traders" ruled the day. Nixon ended the game in 1971 and a new game began.

This new action allowed the player with the most chips to buy assets of desire. The Japanese were on top in those days and soon they bought Rockefeller Center, Columbia Pictures and more. The fiat staked cards moved around the table. In the 1980s the US had the most chips and our oil companies soon embarked on world assets along with Coca Cola, PG and others. To the dismay of central bankers the game would stall from time-to-time due to debt that never gets paid off, but rolls-over into a larger bundle of debt and doubts begin to arise. These doubts usually end in currency devaluations to gain chips irregardless of the pain paid by non-playing citizens of the countries of the central banks. This is the negative trait in our human nature. We can justify it in many ways like jobs, economic well-being, growth or standard of living. Bottom line: it is me first, selfish greed and this aspect of greed is wrong and that is why I'm generally against global trading. Within the nations that feel the ill effects of global trading negative outbursts will eventually come to surface. Why does gas cost so much? It is those greedy Arabs. Maybe, just maybe, the OPEC members raised the price of oil because the dollar lost value due to currency manipulation, but the truth gets lost today because like the present Presidential debates, there is no truth.

The fiat asset game today is like Halloween. It is in disguise. The following brand name companies use to be American and most people still believe that they are, but alas, they are not.
Thirsty? Have a Bud. Stomach ache? Alka Seltzer. Insurance? John Hancock. Traveling? Holiday Inn. Desert? Good Humor. More ice-cream? Put it in the Frigidaire. Need a tire? Firestone. Baby food? You can get some Gerber at the 7/11.

The above is all from the action of the chips, but what happens when tolls rise on roads for profits which is also happening? What happens when utilities get turned off? See my point. People may or may not know the true cause of their situation, but mobs are not rational. The sins of manipulation are laying serious harm  for future social unrest, especially from the dangers that I see in the present stage of the global economy. The next crisis is a seed in the ground...read on...

With central bankers lowering interest rates to allow governments the ability to repay their debts, the yield for savers is non-existent. In the search to seek higher yields and with the shrinking number of quality assets to purchase with their chips, investors are turning again to synthetic collateralized debt obligations backed by derivatives bets on the creditworthiness of borrowers. They are betting on bets.
Just recently, Blue Mountain Capital Management LLC jumped into the market for $750 million, but ended up with $1.5 billion. Who gave the money? Pension funds from the US, Canada, Europe and Japan. The same folks who lost big in the sub-prime collateralized debt obligations in 2008. Who says history does not repeat? There are many more examples like the one that I just used and all these bets are multiplied on the negative aspect of our human nature. This will not end well.
Liars and Crooks:QE3 will help create jobs and lower unemployment. End the Fed!

Monday, October 22, 2012

Wise Men Choose Gold...L&C

Whether you believe In the Gift of the Magi, the Democrats or Republicans, it would behoove you to be prepared for a new world order because the course of the present world leaders is one of irresponsibility to their respective nations as represented by their currencies. Each time the Fed or other central banker prints more money, they are in essence devaluing their currency. If you look at recent history the "Nixon Shock" would give you definite clues as to where these central policies will be taking us.
Gold Standard
was betrayed in 1913 with the creation of the Federal Reserve, however the final nail in the coffin didn't happen until Nixon ended the convertibility of paper-to-gold in 1971. This act allowed the central bank to control our currency directly, although the Fed was technically in charge since 1913.
The majority of the public were opposed to this act, but this one issue would not be the first or last time our elected officials have disregarded what is now termed "populist" thinking. In fact, I will expand on this concept in my election vote blog. Watch for it. However, this is about gold and why you should have as much as you can afford for your own economic benefit.
Gold was regulated and manipulated to a price of just $35 per ounce back in 1971. Central bankers did not care that it cost more than $35 an ounce to find, mine and monetize just as it is today at over $1725 per ounce. Not that it cost that much to find, mine and monetize, but in a relationship to dollars that are printed, gold's cost is way undervalued.
To refresh. The idea behind the gold standard was that gold represented a store of value for the currency and central bankers could only print money that had a correlation of one ounce of gold for each dollar printed. This same relationship held true for every currency that had value behind it, but fiat people soon controlled central banks in every nation until the US surrendered in 1971. Now, there is no store of value in any currency. It is just paper, baby!
Now, do a timeline from 1971 until 1980. Gold runs to $850 per ounce. Fed chairman, Volcker sets out to fight the flight to gold fearing it becomes  national issue. He, the status quo and the media establish that inflation is the culprit of the then, US economic woes. The Fed drives up interest rates to over 15% and everyone in sound mind puts their dollars in T-bills and gold dies on the vine. The Fed won, but realized it paid a heavy price. The first signs and pressures of deficit spending effects the government along with the protesters in the street against the war in Vietnam.You see nothing can be discussed in isolation because all things are related even though the powers-to-be say one issue at a time. Bottom line: gold falls to around $200 per ounce and off the public mind.
Dow/Gold Price
has a relationship. See, you could buy one share of the price of the Dow for one ounce of Gold back in 1980. The trend went against gold until the value spread reached 44:1 ratio at the peak in 2007.  That spread has since declined due to the stagnate global economy, money printing and loss of purchasing power. It is now at 8:1. If the trend is your friend, this is a no brain er. Want more facts?
30 Cities Warned
about debt in California alone. According to Milliman Inc.unfunded pensions in the US amount to over $1.2trillion. Who is going to pay for these problems? Where is the money going to come from?
The Fed. That's right! Want another one? The Consumer Price Index stated inflation was under 2%  and the Social Security Agency used that info to provide a cola of 1.7% for recipients. We already know that they don't count food and energy since the agency is run by aliens who do not need food or oil, but here is another not used, never mentioned tidbit, college cost and medical expenses. The cost for higher education has exploded to over five times the annual inflation rate and medical costs have jumped to twice the annual rate of inflation.
If in 1928 you had $100K and invested in the market, by 1938 you would only be valued at $10K. However if you purchased gold mining stocks in 1928, you would be worth over one million in 1938. I used mining stocks because FDR outlawed gold in 1933. It will be the same effect today, but with actual gold.
Finally
did I hear someone say, Yea? Wiseguy. The Fed divides the money it prints into different categories. To be brief, I'll use M1 and M2. M1 has grown from last year at 112% clip and M2 which contains M1 plus savings deposits and more like money market funds has jumped over 118% or $5.4trillion and that is a ton of paper and when you consider that this same money action is happening in Asia, South America, Europe, everywhere, gold can only go higher.
Liars and Crooks:Are you ready for your pop quiz? Clear away everything from your desk. Turn off all your devices. We have only one question and your grade will depend on how many correct answers that you circle. The second Presidential debate discussed which of the following. Circle every answer that applies. Give reason for your choice. 1)the Federal Reserve, 2)housing, 3) the dollar, 4)labor, 5)municipal bankruptcies, 6)pensions,7)fiscal cliff, 8) none of the above.
If you answered 8, congrats you got an "A." If you gave 8 and another number, I'll have to look at your reasoning as anyone can be fooled when one candidate says one thing and immediately, the other refutes that answer.

Monday, October 15, 2012

Legislative Retail...L&C

The idea of legislating retail has been around for quite awhile now. It started with hunting and fishing licenses. Politicians realized that they could generate revenues, create jobs and develop bigger government through laws that force citizens to purchase what use to be free. It got a modern jump start with the idiot in Oklahoma who came up with the parking meter. The best ideas(capable of being passed by Dems&Repubs) are the ones that help all government levels from local-to-state-to-federal like the gasoline tax. The republicans claim that these ideas are in the democrat camp, however both parties sign off on the legislation.
Cash for Clunkers
is one of the latest entries into this domain. It spread to appliances, back-to-school, first-time home ownership and now could reach new possibilities with the Supreme Court. They are working on a case that could determine whether you can have a garage sale, sell produce that you grew or even allow you to sell over the internet like with Ebay.
Internet Next
that question has bounced around for a few years, but eventually, the government will tax it and prices will go up and some joker politician will call that progress to which, now is also happening in the private sector.
Get Your Modem,
I got the best prices, colors and models is a business opportunity waiting for you. That's right! Stand outside of an Apple store, cable operator or similar enterprise and bark your hardware because private enterprise has got the government to allow them to charge a lease fee for modems that make their connection system work for you. It wasn't bad enough you had to wait all day for them to install it, but now, they want to charge you extra for the equipment that makes the system applicable.  So, beat them to the punch. You can buy wholesale and undersell the competition. Every customer who feels that the Internet operators are rip-off artists will gladly be your customer. Go get'em!
Liars and Crooks:this week is in preparation for tomorrows second presidential debate. That's right. I'm going to give to a pop quiz next week. Don't worry. It won't be hard because the two candidates won't discuss the Fed, how both political parties are responsible for the deficit, excess military budget, falling value of the dollar, loss of jobs, et al. So, listen and you won't hear anything and that is worth one-third of your grade.

Monday, October 8, 2012

Election Lunch: Corrupt Sandwich...L&C

The US is noted for fast food and in the past week we received a sandwich to digest that resembled an OREO cookie. We were force fed junk food. Fittingly, starting with the Fed who are the outside layer since they are not elected and have undo power over the US economy, as they announced that they were going to enact QE3 with no end time table or date if you will.
This led to a debate both pro and con to QE3 merits, not withstanding the timing being so close to a national election to which this action impact favors the president casting another doubt about the unbiased nature of the Fed.
Your wish sandwich inside makes dry toast look gourmet. Romney, in the presidential debates, served Obama humble pie for desert. This gave the challenger a boost and maybe Obama was not the right man for the job.
The bottom of your sandwich comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They made their monthly report on Friday. Bear with me dear reader for one minute. You see I have to set the price or numerical numbers that correlate this menu. Prior to the BLS report, the unemployment rate in the US was 8.1%. Now, it takes 150,000 jobs or lack of to move just one tick. The BLS announced that 114,000 jobs were created in September and that the unemployment rate lowered to 7.8%. What?!
Who Does This Help?
Can you see the phoniness? The B.S.?  It will take more than a TUMS to digest this lunch.
Conspiracy
Maybe not in the traditional sense, but definitely manipulation. The BLS said that they use two ways to reach their conclusions. First, they check with known sources like manufacturing which actually lost jobs. Then, they call on households to get a second opinion which is their second step. This is where the corruption takes place. You see all they have to do is check with state and local agencies to see if they had new schools, were hiring and things of that nature. Then, they make local calls in areas where the info looks positive. Suddenly, you get a good report. To make the numbers jive, the BLS showed 652,000 part-time jobs in September. This is how they moved three ticks in their report. If anyone can live on part-time wages, God bless them because I can't. This is why dear reader that I say all these agencies need to be reformated and start all over with new people because all we get now is massaged facts that the staus quo uses to control us.
Liars and Crooks:If you watched the presidential debates, it is obviously apparent. Romney says one thing and Obama says that is not what he said. He means this to which Romney says no, I mean this and you are wrong to which the president says, no you are wrong. The only thing that is right is for all of us to see that neither of the two parties will do anything or knows anything that will help America. Let's pray and hope a new party begins that reflect what America truly needs and follows with the thinking of Jefferson, Madison, Adams and Franklin. Peace.

Monday, October 1, 2012

Dow Transport: Fed Fiat Roadblock...L&C

As the market enters the last quarter, it must first pass its toughest month. October's declining records include the 1929 Crash, the 1987 meltdown and many, many other stress moments. The pundits still shout that the market will reach its record highs before the year ends. They discount all the obstacles like a slowing global market, the debasing of currencies to maintain export market share, social unrest in Europe, the Middle East and elsewhere, energy disruptions due to political actions, food costs along with other aspects of inflation due to the debasing of currencies with fiat money, the weakness in national labor markets that has unemployment rising, tensions building in the face of poor leadership that only responds to the banking industry and governments that are cash poor and deficit rich. The length of that sentence alone tells you that they are skating on thin ice. Here is something else.
Dow Theory
says that the industrial index and the transport index must move in tandem to reflect true harmony within the market. If they both rise, all is well. If they both decline, a bottom will be reached at the same time. If they divert, something is afoot. This divergence is a sign that there is trouble ahead. Dear reader, the industrial average has been climbing all year, but the transport index has stayed in a consolidating range and has decoupled from the industrial average. It is saying that one of the above obstacles or some other new obstacle will appear and the market will correct to the downside.
Another Aspect
I just read a report that sheds a new idea to answer this divergence. If you look at the market, say in 1970 and you add the average GDP of the US for the last 42 years, you would have a market industrial average around 8400 to 9000. By the way the US average growth was about 3.3% per year. At present the average is 13,500. How can this big a discrepancy exist?   
Fiat Money
is the answer. The Fed along with central banks throughout the world have flooded their markets with cheap dollars. They have debased currencies and the markets have adjusted this inflationary aspect. A hundred shares of xyz today goes for $50 per share, however that same company could have been purchased in 1970 at $5.00 per share. The 1970 dollar could buy ten times the present dollar and this is how the Fed and fiat money steals from all of us.
Bottom Line
There will be a correction in the US market. It should lower the market to the 8400-9000 range, however keep in mind that when this event unfolds the same market forces will oppose the correction. They will have meetings of G-20s, different government agencies, government itself and all the present status quo players to stop what they will call a deflationary danger. They only recognise inflation as growth and there in is the problem. As it happens, gold will be a great buy at a much lower price than today. As always, "End the Fed!"
Liars and Crooks: The two rivals for the presidency will meet in a nationally televised debate on Wednesday. Debate is what they call it, however it is more hooray for my guy and little substance. For example, they both will preach that they will if elected, provide more jobs and restore the "American dream." However, both will not provide a blueprint to achieve their promise. I'll tell you right here and now, if you what jobs, we need to place tariffs on imports to protect the producer as well as the worker and neither candidate will say that. Both political parties are liars and crooks and as patriots we need to establish a new political party that represents the people.

Monday, September 24, 2012

Dodd-Frank Act:Dangerous Unintended Consequences...L&C

I've spoken before about the this foolish law. It was signed by the "appeaser" President Obama even though the  statues of the law that was passed by an equally stupid Congress, were still not completely written. Well, one of those unwritten, fine print aspects has been revealed. This has the word CRISIS screaming out of it.
Because our leaders are not true leaders, but party line pup its that tow the line, no one had the courage to oppose the banking industry, seek criminal charges where applicable and most importantly, put in place regulation that makes the banking industry and related industries like insurance reveal their transactions with bonafide accounting in correlation to derivatives.
Derivative Market
is a mind boggling $648 trillion dollar casino. Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase have together over $140 trillion on their balance sheet. Now, the US economy totals are around $14 trillion and the world figures would hit about $65 trillion. Folks, these people have total disregard for you, me or reality. If one small aspect in one contract goes wrong, then the chain reaction will destroy that entire contract with the possibility to effect other contracts and so on until a domino effect destroys the whole market. JPMorganChase just experienced this problem last quarter had it cost them over $4 billion. It was small and they were able to contain it, but what if it was a big? There is no one, no company, no nation that can pay off the compounded debts because 648t is 10 times 65t, give or take, whatever. There was only one person, Brooksley Born who spoke about the dangers of the derivative market when it began and Fed Chief Greenspan did away with her. Dear reader, the Fed and central banks everywhere are not for the people, but the banking industry. The value of the dollar has lost 95% since the Fed began and they have demonstrated countless times that they are here to bailout the banks when they fail. "Privatize the profits and socialize the losses" is their true motto.
How does this play into the Dodd-Frank Act? Keep in mind that because our so-called leaders lack the courage to face the banking industry head on, they have a back door solution. This is the danger.
Collateral Rule
They said that from now on, the traders of derivatives must have a backup security to their contracts. This security must be recognized as a top line asset. The law would allow gold, US Treasuries or other top-of-the-line assets for collateral. This falls in line with the Fed's action to push lower the interest rate for mortgages, which will drive up the price for housing and return the economy back to the status quo prior to the crisis of 2008. The problem as I see it is this. If, there is a run on a contract that is in peril, then the liquidating center would own the security asset, say gold. These centers clear their books on a daily basis which implies that the security, in this example, gold, would be sold at market and the proceeds placed on the closing book. This will cause a serious drop in the price of gold or US Treasuries or whatever asset is used. They are creating new pressures in the market for top rated assets as an unintended consequence of their actions. Forrest Gump would say,"stupid is as stupid does."
Liars and Crooks:Our two political parties for not having the courage to address the above, the military complex, free trade policies, the fiscal cliff or any serious issue in an intelligent, honest way.

Monday, September 17, 2012

QE3 & 10 States Drowning in Debt...L&C

Helicopter Ben dropped glops of dollars from his circus craft on the American economy last week. He says this action along with the recent past programs by the Fed has saved our nation from economic catastrophe. According to him, this action will spur the increase in employment. He does not admit the actions of the Fed itself were the cause for the original crisis, the lost in value of the dollar or the stealing of taxpayer's money through the hidden tax of inflation which will be even greater in the future due to QE3. The only thing that his actions has spurred is the increase in the value of gold and I see $2,000 an ounce in the future.
With the above being said, I noticed a report about the 10 states that on average have the highest individual debt and begs the question, how much higher can it go without severe delinquencies? Futhermore, the findings of the list shows that the debt standing is in well-to-do states, but there is no misery report showing the effects on the poor which reached a staggering 46 million on food stamps. Expenses are relative to income, but there is a tipping point for everyone and Ben, that includes nations as well.
Credit.com
released the findings from Experian. It reveals that most states have with their citizens a revolving debt load of about $25,000. Revolving debt is all credit cards and personal loan debt which means the figures would be so much higher since mortgage, auto and other debt instruments are not included.
Washington falls in tenth place and there average hits $26K per person. Keep in mind that disposable money is needed to pay this and other forms of debt. How do the unemployed pay their debt? I don't know, but I'm sure someone will do a paper on it at some time. So, we wait for that answer.
Vermont is next. This state has the lowest delinquency problems which means they know how to manage money.
Texas follows and it should be noted that this state has the highest auto debt which means that someday the new motto will be ..."Texas, the biggest delinquent."
Oklahoma, Virginia, Maryland, Colorado, S.Dakota, Wyoming and finally, Alaska.
Alaska hits the high bar at $30 per person, however like Vermont, their citizens handle money management well.
Liars and Crooks: Uncle Ben wins again! No, not a QB in the NFL, but the Chief of the Fed with QE3. He says this will lower unemployment, but what it does is allow the US to manage their $16 trillion of debt because we all know that QE1 and QE2 did not lower unemployment. What did Einstein say about insanity? Oh, yeah..."doing the same thing over and over again, seeking a different solution. END the FED!