The Dodd-Frank Act enacted new rules that the banking industry must abide by to qualify for the government sponsored mortgages under Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. These rules are suppose to tighten the guidelines that buyers must prove that they can meet when seeking financing for new mortgages. The idea is to provide security for buyers and sellers of homes. What are they, you ask?
To Qualify
you must show that you possess income to be able to pay your mortgage with a 38% ratio with one weeks income within one month. The banks are allowed to stretch this ratio to 43% if the buyer has an excellent credit rating. Feel more secure? I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but back in the day, I use to be a real estate agent.
In Olden Days
you had a 25% ratio and the banks could stretch this to 33%, if you had no other outstanding obligations like excess debt with credit cards, car loans or things of that nature. If you had a good down payment, the banks could extend the ratio to 38%. So much for tightening the rules.
Now, the next big thing that our government faces is the debt ceiling. The Republicans say that they will not approve any higher national debt unless President Obama enacts an equal amount of cuts to government spending, especially under entitlements like Social Security and Medicare. To me, if both parties were serious, they would re-enact the pay-as-you-go legislation, which would at least hold the level of debt to the market interest rates. This thought also had me thinking that if President Obama had any real convictions on our debt, he would apply the new mortgage rules to our present debt with a plan to pay it off.
New 30 Year Mgt. for the White House
at present, we owe under known debt around $16 trillion. Yeah, I know that unfunded expenses like the entitlements, government sponsored entities, off the book liabilities are in excess of another $90 trillion, but one thing at a time.
Currently, we have over 300 million in population, however I will use the 300mil as a round number. In addition, the debt clock says that each household owes over $130,00 as their share of this national deficit. Again, I will use the round number of $130,000. Multiply the population by the individual share or 130,000. The result is the new mortgage amount or $39 trillion to which we divide by 30 years= the amount that our new budget must cut, tax with new revenues or a mixed combination every year for the next 30 years to pay off the present deficit. So, how much is it?
Glad, you asked. It is $1.3 trillion that needs to be paid this year and every year for 30 years. Bottom line: we are in big do-do or another way is the penmanship of the new Treasurer, Jack Lew nominated by President Obama. His style reflects the strength of the dollar. He looks like he his doodling with the letter "O" as in zero. Is that the real value of a dollar?
Liars and Crooks: the new movie, Zero Dark Thirty. It fails to acknowledge the sin of our present military leaders who used torture to seek info on Bin Laden and terrorist in general. The real truth is when the water board and other tortures started, a brave FBI agent walked out on the act. He stated, "that this is not the way America operates. This is how the bottom feeders act." The so-called true story does not reveal this or any conflicts pertaining to the military actions.
Monday, January 14, 2013
Monday, January 7, 2013
Hitting the WALL of Demographics...L&C
A few people have asked me why in my previous article, Forecast 2013, why I only had one recommendation and that being for gold in 2013? The main reason was space pertaining to the length of the article. In that light I have decided to add this, to follow up for 2013.
Keep in mind my basic premise that these pieces constitute a concept that is explored fully in my unpublished book, The Evolution of Democracy: the Book of Multiple Ideas and Predictions. I say this to add a cheap plug and remind you dear readers, that previous pieces combine to form a complete opinion as with another recent, previous article on the stock market called, Divergence Ahead...
Insiders Selling
can be added to the previous point about new highs and new lows for the market. Executives of listed corporations are selling their shares of their companies at an alarming rate of 6.67 to 1 ration - meaning that, for every one share bought, insiders sold almost seven. In addition, manufacturing which has been a big plus for the US economy is now in a declining trend which is bordering a return to the overall big picture decline since the 1970s. A closer look at the factory gauge tells all. In 2010, the level of activity was 57.3 of capacity. This number declined to 55.2 in 2011 and fell again in 2012 to 51.7.
Gasoline Usage
has declined every year since 2008, and the only reason why prices have not followed suite is market speculation. This downward force is gaining momentum. This action can bust more than hedge funds, especially with all those derivatives out there. There are other real market forces that are affecting supply and demand like unemployment and one that is not fully understood by the status quo appointed economists, and that is demographics. The baby boomers are 73 million strong with 10,000 retiring every day for the next 18 years. These people are downsizing, drive less, don't eat potato chips or drink soda and in general, conserve their money=less spending. This is a double whammy for the government. It means less revenues and more expenses through social security and other entitlement programs. It also means that the budget deficit and yearly revenues are ALL WRONG! They are all short of reality.
PCs
sales have dropped to extreme levels causing big declines to Dell, Hewlett-Packard and Intel which make the chips to power them. If you look at the Dogs of the Dow for 2012, you will find all of the above plus AT&T, Verizon, GE, J&J, Merck, Pfizer and DuPont.
Looking ahead, I like two bio/health stocks: Arena Pharmaceuticals and Celsion Corp. These are both speculative, so ask your broker or other professional if a position is right for you. I also feel that the baby boomers have all the smart phones and tablets that they need and market saturation will slow the companies that make these devices. Sadly, the sales of precious metal coins declined for 2012, but no trend is in place. Copper will probably hold at present levels since the SEC has allowed a fund to sell this under an index for this commodity. The pundits will claim it is the housing recovery that has stabilize the price of copper.
Finally, now that the fiscal cliff deal is done, the market will eventually realize that this deal for tax increases and spending cuts amounts to only 10% of the original Simpson-Bowles, which was a compromise to the original tax increase/spending cuts plan to the tune of 25%. Bottom line:a half-percent increase in our interest rates will negate the $60 billion in new revenues and when the rates begin to rise, it will be more than a half percent. Look at it this way, the government will get $60 billion in new revenues and when they finish the Hurricane Sandy Relief, it will cost the government $60 billion. This is why I say gold in 2013.
Liars and Crooks: President Obama and Congress with their fiscal cliff deal. This piece of legislation will continue 52 tax loopholes, credits, whatever you want to call this PORK! End the Fed!
Keep in mind my basic premise that these pieces constitute a concept that is explored fully in my unpublished book, The Evolution of Democracy: the Book of Multiple Ideas and Predictions. I say this to add a cheap plug and remind you dear readers, that previous pieces combine to form a complete opinion as with another recent, previous article on the stock market called, Divergence Ahead...
Insiders Selling
can be added to the previous point about new highs and new lows for the market. Executives of listed corporations are selling their shares of their companies at an alarming rate of 6.67 to 1 ration - meaning that, for every one share bought, insiders sold almost seven. In addition, manufacturing which has been a big plus for the US economy is now in a declining trend which is bordering a return to the overall big picture decline since the 1970s. A closer look at the factory gauge tells all. In 2010, the level of activity was 57.3 of capacity. This number declined to 55.2 in 2011 and fell again in 2012 to 51.7.
Gasoline Usage
has declined every year since 2008, and the only reason why prices have not followed suite is market speculation. This downward force is gaining momentum. This action can bust more than hedge funds, especially with all those derivatives out there. There are other real market forces that are affecting supply and demand like unemployment and one that is not fully understood by the status quo appointed economists, and that is demographics. The baby boomers are 73 million strong with 10,000 retiring every day for the next 18 years. These people are downsizing, drive less, don't eat potato chips or drink soda and in general, conserve their money=less spending. This is a double whammy for the government. It means less revenues and more expenses through social security and other entitlement programs. It also means that the budget deficit and yearly revenues are ALL WRONG! They are all short of reality.
PCs
sales have dropped to extreme levels causing big declines to Dell, Hewlett-Packard and Intel which make the chips to power them. If you look at the Dogs of the Dow for 2012, you will find all of the above plus AT&T, Verizon, GE, J&J, Merck, Pfizer and DuPont.
Looking ahead, I like two bio/health stocks: Arena Pharmaceuticals and Celsion Corp. These are both speculative, so ask your broker or other professional if a position is right for you. I also feel that the baby boomers have all the smart phones and tablets that they need and market saturation will slow the companies that make these devices. Sadly, the sales of precious metal coins declined for 2012, but no trend is in place. Copper will probably hold at present levels since the SEC has allowed a fund to sell this under an index for this commodity. The pundits will claim it is the housing recovery that has stabilize the price of copper.
Finally, now that the fiscal cliff deal is done, the market will eventually realize that this deal for tax increases and spending cuts amounts to only 10% of the original Simpson-Bowles, which was a compromise to the original tax increase/spending cuts plan to the tune of 25%. Bottom line:a half-percent increase in our interest rates will negate the $60 billion in new revenues and when the rates begin to rise, it will be more than a half percent. Look at it this way, the government will get $60 billion in new revenues and when they finish the Hurricane Sandy Relief, it will cost the government $60 billion. This is why I say gold in 2013.
Liars and Crooks: President Obama and Congress with their fiscal cliff deal. This piece of legislation will continue 52 tax loopholes, credits, whatever you want to call this PORK! End the Fed!
Tuesday, January 1, 2013
Forecast 2013
Before I rub the crystal ball and reveal my 2013 calls, let me reflect, as this is a mediation period and recall my 2012 predictions.
I was spot on in my weather call as Hurricane Sandy after-effects still cause serious damage to many households. I also sadly called the drought problem. I do not see a bad hurricane season, but I see the drought continuing in 2013.
I called every election except the one in France and although presently, the Euro is in an uptrend, my call that it would hit a new low was correct. I see another new low in 2013.
My black swan call on derivatives is still a danger in progress, however my investment advice on coal was off the mark. My other investment calls on the media and trains returned profits as well as my long-term bullish stance on gold which has made money twelve years in a row.
2013
the pundits will push the banking industry and with the Fed manipulating investment choices, who can blame them. Nevertheless, I would not follow the herd on this call because in the second set of books, the banking industry hides their toxic securities and another three million homes that need to be foreclosed upon. The banks along with the Fed policy is using the drip I-V recovery method for the housing industry. The media plays along and together they are turning the public perspective about the housing market. Bottom line: a repeat of 2012 but a possible big downside.
Of course, the most important news and the reason why I delayed this piece one day, is the fiscal cliff call on the budget. As I stated many times, President Obama is an appeaser. He has already doubled the "middle class" threshold in negotiating with Congress. He says, he won't budge on spending cuts unless equal taxation is applied, however the pending battle on the debt ceiling will show that he is indeed an appeaser with no plan or convictions. Can you believe anyone who says $450,000 is middle class? The best thing is for our nation to go over the cliff and maybe, some reality about our economy will reset the national thinking. That is the hope, but the reality is some cheaper version will be reached. The real story will be money for the states with budget shortfalls. This will determine the national economy for 2013.
Character
or lack of it would describe our present day government. Not only is the fiscal cliff a problem, but we learn that there needs to be a diary fix or a gallon of milk will cost over $7 dollars. We find that there needs to be a doctor fix, so payments under Medicare and Medicaid will be carried over into 2013. There are other fixes too like the extension of unemployment benefits, spending cuts for the military and other government contract deals. I see them all getting extended by these weak leaders. All these lies hide the fact that our government is corrupt.and deceiving its citizens. Our economy is losing its capitalism to socialism with the government causing what little GDP that we attain. The Simpson-Bowles agreement was a glance at reality and this government cannot allow the truth to be known. Bottom line: Free trade is a lie that is destroying America and until this is addressed, nothing will change for our benefit. Gold will hit over $2,000 in 2013.
Other Elections
will see the same leaders in Germany and Italy and a continuation of the same policies unless some black swan event causes a turn to the truth.
Other Dangers
This could be an attack by Israel with Iran. A hacking event that causes a world interruption. This will result when this happens, with new laws that will force Internet security expenses by companies which will result in higher inflation to the global community. There is a slight possibility that Japan will have a financial problem with its new policy of debasing the Yen. All these scenarios will only help gold, but I see the dollar climbing higher at first which will lower the price of gold and oil until the realization that the world central banks are printing worthless paper with no backing. This awareness will cause our Fed to lose control of interest rates that will rise, eventually causing world havoc in the financial markets. This may cause the One World people to suggest a new world reserve currency. This will hurt America as inflation will show its ugly head. Our role will end up being a less powerful economic force with China rising in influence, after all, it is the year of the snake.
I was spot on in my weather call as Hurricane Sandy after-effects still cause serious damage to many households. I also sadly called the drought problem. I do not see a bad hurricane season, but I see the drought continuing in 2013.
I called every election except the one in France and although presently, the Euro is in an uptrend, my call that it would hit a new low was correct. I see another new low in 2013.
My black swan call on derivatives is still a danger in progress, however my investment advice on coal was off the mark. My other investment calls on the media and trains returned profits as well as my long-term bullish stance on gold which has made money twelve years in a row.
2013
the pundits will push the banking industry and with the Fed manipulating investment choices, who can blame them. Nevertheless, I would not follow the herd on this call because in the second set of books, the banking industry hides their toxic securities and another three million homes that need to be foreclosed upon. The banks along with the Fed policy is using the drip I-V recovery method for the housing industry. The media plays along and together they are turning the public perspective about the housing market. Bottom line: a repeat of 2012 but a possible big downside.
Of course, the most important news and the reason why I delayed this piece one day, is the fiscal cliff call on the budget. As I stated many times, President Obama is an appeaser. He has already doubled the "middle class" threshold in negotiating with Congress. He says, he won't budge on spending cuts unless equal taxation is applied, however the pending battle on the debt ceiling will show that he is indeed an appeaser with no plan or convictions. Can you believe anyone who says $450,000 is middle class? The best thing is for our nation to go over the cliff and maybe, some reality about our economy will reset the national thinking. That is the hope, but the reality is some cheaper version will be reached. The real story will be money for the states with budget shortfalls. This will determine the national economy for 2013.
Character
or lack of it would describe our present day government. Not only is the fiscal cliff a problem, but we learn that there needs to be a diary fix or a gallon of milk will cost over $7 dollars. We find that there needs to be a doctor fix, so payments under Medicare and Medicaid will be carried over into 2013. There are other fixes too like the extension of unemployment benefits, spending cuts for the military and other government contract deals. I see them all getting extended by these weak leaders. All these lies hide the fact that our government is corrupt.and deceiving its citizens. Our economy is losing its capitalism to socialism with the government causing what little GDP that we attain. The Simpson-Bowles agreement was a glance at reality and this government cannot allow the truth to be known. Bottom line: Free trade is a lie that is destroying America and until this is addressed, nothing will change for our benefit. Gold will hit over $2,000 in 2013.
Other Elections
will see the same leaders in Germany and Italy and a continuation of the same policies unless some black swan event causes a turn to the truth.
Other Dangers
This could be an attack by Israel with Iran. A hacking event that causes a world interruption. This will result when this happens, with new laws that will force Internet security expenses by companies which will result in higher inflation to the global community. There is a slight possibility that Japan will have a financial problem with its new policy of debasing the Yen. All these scenarios will only help gold, but I see the dollar climbing higher at first which will lower the price of gold and oil until the realization that the world central banks are printing worthless paper with no backing. This awareness will cause our Fed to lose control of interest rates that will rise, eventually causing world havoc in the financial markets. This may cause the One World people to suggest a new world reserve currency. This will hurt America as inflation will show its ugly head. Our role will end up being a less powerful economic force with China rising in influence, after all, it is the year of the snake.
Monday, December 24, 2012
New Year: Divergence Ahead...L&C
I was going to call this piece, the Christmas Present, but there are too many lousy gifts out there as it is, not to mention the bad news in the media recently. What I am calling your attention to is this: there is a change taking place in the market and the signs of this divergence is your phone call.
When you look at the advance/decline line, you can see it clearly. From the lows of 2009 until October highs in this year, the change is occurring. The market in bull mode rendered a 20 to 1 ratio of new highs to new lows. Now, the tempo is 3 to 1 on NYSE, even on AMEX and 2 to 1 on NASDAQ. The market is breaking down. There are more indicators and yes, the fiscal cliff is a big part of it.
Gold
From a new high in September 2011 of over $1900 per ounce, it is now at $1659 and trending lower.
Oil
It began this year over $100 per barrel and held in a range from $90 to $110, but recently is falling as low as $77 with a present bounce to $88. The trend is down.
Copper
The good doctor of the economy is sinking. It has falling from $4.60 to $3.55 today. The trend is lower. These essential commodities are indicating less demand.
Finally, there are many leaders in the business world who see trouble ahead. I call to mind this leader because it has been correct in calls about the economy in recent years. The ECRI, Economic Cycle Research Institute calls for a recession in 2013. I would add this to the list. The government says that unemployment is down to 7.7% and I disagree. It is much, much higher. If you look at the actual number of people employed and compare it to the number of people employed before the recession and add the correlation of population growth from 2007 until today then, common sense tells you that the government is lying. The divergence in numbers is huge. Consider this tidbit. Our GDP has not reached 4% for 12 years straight and that covers the boom period. Take your profits and just sit tight. If the market implodes, you can buy what you want for a much cheaper price. Better safe than sorry, my mother would say.
Liars and Crooks: Congress and the President in the dealing with the fiscal cliff problem. The actual fiscal cliff is already law and it is a far better solution than whatever the above could come up with for our nation.
When you look at the advance/decline line, you can see it clearly. From the lows of 2009 until October highs in this year, the change is occurring. The market in bull mode rendered a 20 to 1 ratio of new highs to new lows. Now, the tempo is 3 to 1 on NYSE, even on AMEX and 2 to 1 on NASDAQ. The market is breaking down. There are more indicators and yes, the fiscal cliff is a big part of it.
Gold
From a new high in September 2011 of over $1900 per ounce, it is now at $1659 and trending lower.
Oil
It began this year over $100 per barrel and held in a range from $90 to $110, but recently is falling as low as $77 with a present bounce to $88. The trend is down.
Copper
The good doctor of the economy is sinking. It has falling from $4.60 to $3.55 today. The trend is lower. These essential commodities are indicating less demand.
Finally, there are many leaders in the business world who see trouble ahead. I call to mind this leader because it has been correct in calls about the economy in recent years. The ECRI, Economic Cycle Research Institute calls for a recession in 2013. I would add this to the list. The government says that unemployment is down to 7.7% and I disagree. It is much, much higher. If you look at the actual number of people employed and compare it to the number of people employed before the recession and add the correlation of population growth from 2007 until today then, common sense tells you that the government is lying. The divergence in numbers is huge. Consider this tidbit. Our GDP has not reached 4% for 12 years straight and that covers the boom period. Take your profits and just sit tight. If the market implodes, you can buy what you want for a much cheaper price. Better safe than sorry, my mother would say.
Liars and Crooks: Congress and the President in the dealing with the fiscal cliff problem. The actual fiscal cliff is already law and it is a far better solution than whatever the above could come up with for our nation.
Monday, December 17, 2012
Bad Boy Christmas List...(by request)
What does Warren Buffett, Goldman Sachs and our government have in common?
They all made our list under one category or another from hypocrites to phonies to just basic criminals.
The Oracle of Omaha is loved by many and I use to count myself among the group. However, time reveals all and "...Time has come today..."
Warren is best known as a value investor. He has been quoted many times as being opposed to credit default swaps(CDS). He once labeled them as, "weapons for mass financial destruction." That was then. Today, he found ways to profit from them and he uses them. He even advises lawmakers to continue with the non-regulation of them. The rock group WHO has a song for you, Warren. It goes like this, "We won't be fooled again..."
Now, you may think that was bad, but it gets worse. In 2010 Warren purchased Burlington Northern. He immediately laid off 10,000 workers and since he has been twisting political arms to change our border laws to allow train inspections for engines, cars and parts to be done in Mexico. A champion outsourcing if I ever heard of one. He claims to be bullish on America. Which America I ask? The one that squeezes workers for bottom line profits and uses our present unemployment stats as pressure to scare off any worker protests? Actions speak louder than words. Warren is no George Bailey.
Next, the Wall Street darling, Goldman Sachs. By the way, our Treasurer, the IMF and ECB are all ex-Goldman employees. Goldman use to proclaim that they never took TARP money. They lied. They just took money under another bailout program. They have been questioned about the toxic mortgage securities which caused the recession of 2008. They were found to be selling those securities while behind closed doors, they were betting against them. I question whether they know the meaning of the word fiduciary. There are no Amadeo Giannini's working there or anywhere on Wall Street which is the root of their problems.
Finally, our President and his latest tiffs with the Republican party over the debt ceiling and the fiscal cliff. The big deal that needs to be done before 2013. It will end up like the one in 2010 where Obama showed no conviction as he agreed behind closed doors to extend the Bush Tax Plan. The deal added $110 billion to our deficits. Since then, the Tea Party candidates have entered the fray, however I see no real conviction here too. I see the same type of big deal like my recent call to Visa where I asked them to eliminate my debt ceiling. They hung up on me.
Who Wins, Loses?
The government wins and the citizens lose. It is time to think about starting a new political party that represents our wants and direction for the country and its future. All hail the Liberty Party.
They all made our list under one category or another from hypocrites to phonies to just basic criminals.
The Oracle of Omaha is loved by many and I use to count myself among the group. However, time reveals all and "...Time has come today..."
Warren is best known as a value investor. He has been quoted many times as being opposed to credit default swaps(CDS). He once labeled them as, "weapons for mass financial destruction." That was then. Today, he found ways to profit from them and he uses them. He even advises lawmakers to continue with the non-regulation of them. The rock group WHO has a song for you, Warren. It goes like this, "We won't be fooled again..."
Now, you may think that was bad, but it gets worse. In 2010 Warren purchased Burlington Northern. He immediately laid off 10,000 workers and since he has been twisting political arms to change our border laws to allow train inspections for engines, cars and parts to be done in Mexico. A champion outsourcing if I ever heard of one. He claims to be bullish on America. Which America I ask? The one that squeezes workers for bottom line profits and uses our present unemployment stats as pressure to scare off any worker protests? Actions speak louder than words. Warren is no George Bailey.
Next, the Wall Street darling, Goldman Sachs. By the way, our Treasurer, the IMF and ECB are all ex-Goldman employees. Goldman use to proclaim that they never took TARP money. They lied. They just took money under another bailout program. They have been questioned about the toxic mortgage securities which caused the recession of 2008. They were found to be selling those securities while behind closed doors, they were betting against them. I question whether they know the meaning of the word fiduciary. There are no Amadeo Giannini's working there or anywhere on Wall Street which is the root of their problems.
Finally, our President and his latest tiffs with the Republican party over the debt ceiling and the fiscal cliff. The big deal that needs to be done before 2013. It will end up like the one in 2010 where Obama showed no conviction as he agreed behind closed doors to extend the Bush Tax Plan. The deal added $110 billion to our deficits. Since then, the Tea Party candidates have entered the fray, however I see no real conviction here too. I see the same type of big deal like my recent call to Visa where I asked them to eliminate my debt ceiling. They hung up on me.
Who Wins, Loses?
The government wins and the citizens lose. It is time to think about starting a new political party that represents our wants and direction for the country and its future. All hail the Liberty Party.
Monday, December 10, 2012
Two Christmas Ideas...L&C
Christmas is only fifteen days away and my suggestion for you won't help you this year. With that said, don't leave yet because this is easy money. Thank you, Rodney D. and Joe P. for the laughs in the original, Easy Money.
Have you heard that Canada will no longer make pennies? It is no secret that there is no copper in our pennies and the Fed is about to end the nickle for the same reasons that Canada is killing the penny. It cost too much. That's right! If you missed collecting silver coins before they proved Gresham's Law that bad money will drive out good money, well, I'm sorry. For example, a silver dime today is worth around $3 bucks. A roll could buy you some nice presents, if you had the foresight. It was and is, easy money.
Mining and Agriculture
This leads me into my first suggestion for you. Start collecting nickles because they will generate between five and six times their value with inflation. You see, the Fed lies about inflation and every once in awhile, they kept caught in their lies. If there is only a .02 inflation level, how come copper pennies and buffalo nickles cost so much? Mine the system!
Think of this as your own Christmas Club saving program. I don't know whether banks offer that savings plan anymore, but the return on your savings will be greater than any bank rate on even a T-Bill. Yeah, I know that you need to store it too, but again, $5,000 in nickles will be guaranteed to become over $25 grand. Your closet floor will be put to good use rather than old smelly sneakers.
The other idea is to plant something in your yard or house. Food inflation is off the chart. Eggs are up 68%. Bread is up 45%. Milk, forget about it! Our country has been blest with the best climate to grow things. If you live in the North, you can plant an apple tree. If you live in the middle areas, you can grow berries, peaches, pears and more. Southern California and Florida got it made with citrus. This is healthy. Natural food make great gifts and the initial cost of seeds is next to nothing. All you add is water and love.
The choice is yours, but the old saying applies here,"twice is nice!" Do both!
Liars and Crooks: All the talk about the fiscal cliff is another lie. It is already a law and it takes effect on 1 January 2013. Government is trying to create a crisis, to which they can attempt to steal more power from us. This is the sad truth of America today. Let us respond with, "End the Fed!"
Have you heard that Canada will no longer make pennies? It is no secret that there is no copper in our pennies and the Fed is about to end the nickle for the same reasons that Canada is killing the penny. It cost too much. That's right! If you missed collecting silver coins before they proved Gresham's Law that bad money will drive out good money, well, I'm sorry. For example, a silver dime today is worth around $3 bucks. A roll could buy you some nice presents, if you had the foresight. It was and is, easy money.
Mining and Agriculture
This leads me into my first suggestion for you. Start collecting nickles because they will generate between five and six times their value with inflation. You see, the Fed lies about inflation and every once in awhile, they kept caught in their lies. If there is only a .02 inflation level, how come copper pennies and buffalo nickles cost so much? Mine the system!
Think of this as your own Christmas Club saving program. I don't know whether banks offer that savings plan anymore, but the return on your savings will be greater than any bank rate on even a T-Bill. Yeah, I know that you need to store it too, but again, $5,000 in nickles will be guaranteed to become over $25 grand. Your closet floor will be put to good use rather than old smelly sneakers.
The other idea is to plant something in your yard or house. Food inflation is off the chart. Eggs are up 68%. Bread is up 45%. Milk, forget about it! Our country has been blest with the best climate to grow things. If you live in the North, you can plant an apple tree. If you live in the middle areas, you can grow berries, peaches, pears and more. Southern California and Florida got it made with citrus. This is healthy. Natural food make great gifts and the initial cost of seeds is next to nothing. All you add is water and love.
The choice is yours, but the old saying applies here,"twice is nice!" Do both!
Liars and Crooks: All the talk about the fiscal cliff is another lie. It is already a law and it takes effect on 1 January 2013. Government is trying to create a crisis, to which they can attempt to steal more power from us. This is the sad truth of America today. Let us respond with, "End the Fed!"
Monday, December 3, 2012
Stimulus Lie:California & Greece...L&C
The title of this piece has many layers like an onion. When governments announce a plan to "move" the economy with stimulus, one gets the impression that a new idea is being used or an improvement to the current state of affairs is being implemented to uptick the economy and employment. This is the first lie. The second lie is the deception as to what the stimulus is really being utilized.
In the recent news the next Greek bailout funds are being released because the Greek government and the EU have come to a new understanding about Greece's debt, austerity measures and future growth for that nation. In this plan Greece will not have to pay interest on the money received for ten years, which will lower Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio to a more manageable level and allow some spending for growth with the hope of job creation. Sounds great, doesn't it? Unless you were a purchaser of a Greek bond because in addition, they're cutting the interest rate so you get less than what was originally agreed, you have to wait in doubt for ten more years before you receive any interest and who knows if there won't be a default before that time or what inflation will be. Who would buy anything from these people in the future? Good luck with that plan.
Now, how does this relate to California? Well, if the golden bear state were a sovereign nation, it would be in the top ten economies of the world. Not only that, it would be in the same bailout mode as Greece. When the US announces its yearly budget, there is pork barrel called stimulus for states. This money does nothing for the state economy except maintain the status quo. Like Greece, the money is used to pay debts, government workers, health care, pensions, unemployment or other benefit plans. Nothing new is created. No new schools, hospitals, bridges or roads built. It is money from Peter to pay Paul.
For Example
The Obama administration stated that the government would receive $2.480 trillion in revenues for 2011 when they submitted their budget in 2010. The US only received $2.3 trillion. In one decade that means the US will add another trillion dollars just to poor management, just like in Greece and Europe. California does the same thing except state charters force state governments to balance their books, at least on paper.
With the recession in 2008, every state suffered. When the US government passed the stimulus plan in 2009, the states got in line. In that year, California had a deficit of $86 billion. It received $41 billion in revenues, leaving a $45.5 budget gap. Stimulus to the rescue. California, being the largest by population, got the most: $51 billion.
The California Legislative Analyst's Office(LAO) has given their outlook. The state will suffer budget gaps for the next five years. In 2011-2012=$25 billion short. In 2012-2013=$22 billion short. Get the picture? With all the talk about the debt ceiling, fiscal cliff, taxes and unemployment extension benefits, the real problem is how much are the states going to receive because in addition to California, there are 39 other states in need. The US and the Fed are lying to all of us about our current status and state of affairs. Fitch Ratings knows. They have already announced that if the states don't get money, they will downgrade their debt. I wonder if Fitch is aware of the next tidbit?
It gets worse because there is back story. The California books closed with a so-called balanced budget, however many bills were not paid and they were rolled over into next years budget. This year California will add $5 billion from unpaid bills and if you recall, when the former Greek prime minister finally got into the books, he found the same type of tricks which only makes things worse for Greece as well as California. It is going to be very ugly when these fiat accounting tricks get exposed and people line up looking for their money
Liars and Crooks: Congress, the President and the Fed when the true cost of all our deficits become known. If you recall President Bush kept both wars off the books and I only can imagine what else is not counted. I do know this, Social Security and Medicare are off the books and no one can estimate how much is needed each year from revenues to cover these benefits. God only knows what else can come forward as due payment. So, whatever is suggested by the two political parties, it will be rejected until the last minute as Obama the"appeaser" will cave, but his image will be he did it for the country. Image is everything and substance is nothing...for these people. I wonder what the image spin will be when the holders of debt get in line and want their money, NOW! End the Fed!
In the recent news the next Greek bailout funds are being released because the Greek government and the EU have come to a new understanding about Greece's debt, austerity measures and future growth for that nation. In this plan Greece will not have to pay interest on the money received for ten years, which will lower Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio to a more manageable level and allow some spending for growth with the hope of job creation. Sounds great, doesn't it? Unless you were a purchaser of a Greek bond because in addition, they're cutting the interest rate so you get less than what was originally agreed, you have to wait in doubt for ten more years before you receive any interest and who knows if there won't be a default before that time or what inflation will be. Who would buy anything from these people in the future? Good luck with that plan.
Now, how does this relate to California? Well, if the golden bear state were a sovereign nation, it would be in the top ten economies of the world. Not only that, it would be in the same bailout mode as Greece. When the US announces its yearly budget, there is pork barrel called stimulus for states. This money does nothing for the state economy except maintain the status quo. Like Greece, the money is used to pay debts, government workers, health care, pensions, unemployment or other benefit plans. Nothing new is created. No new schools, hospitals, bridges or roads built. It is money from Peter to pay Paul.
For Example
The Obama administration stated that the government would receive $2.480 trillion in revenues for 2011 when they submitted their budget in 2010. The US only received $2.3 trillion. In one decade that means the US will add another trillion dollars just to poor management, just like in Greece and Europe. California does the same thing except state charters force state governments to balance their books, at least on paper.
With the recession in 2008, every state suffered. When the US government passed the stimulus plan in 2009, the states got in line. In that year, California had a deficit of $86 billion. It received $41 billion in revenues, leaving a $45.5 budget gap. Stimulus to the rescue. California, being the largest by population, got the most: $51 billion.
The California Legislative Analyst's Office(LAO) has given their outlook. The state will suffer budget gaps for the next five years. In 2011-2012=$25 billion short. In 2012-2013=$22 billion short. Get the picture? With all the talk about the debt ceiling, fiscal cliff, taxes and unemployment extension benefits, the real problem is how much are the states going to receive because in addition to California, there are 39 other states in need. The US and the Fed are lying to all of us about our current status and state of affairs. Fitch Ratings knows. They have already announced that if the states don't get money, they will downgrade their debt. I wonder if Fitch is aware of the next tidbit?
It gets worse because there is back story. The California books closed with a so-called balanced budget, however many bills were not paid and they were rolled over into next years budget. This year California will add $5 billion from unpaid bills and if you recall, when the former Greek prime minister finally got into the books, he found the same type of tricks which only makes things worse for Greece as well as California. It is going to be very ugly when these fiat accounting tricks get exposed and people line up looking for their money
Liars and Crooks: Congress, the President and the Fed when the true cost of all our deficits become known. If you recall President Bush kept both wars off the books and I only can imagine what else is not counted. I do know this, Social Security and Medicare are off the books and no one can estimate how much is needed each year from revenues to cover these benefits. God only knows what else can come forward as due payment. So, whatever is suggested by the two political parties, it will be rejected until the last minute as Obama the"appeaser" will cave, but his image will be he did it for the country. Image is everything and substance is nothing...for these people. I wonder what the image spin will be when the holders of debt get in line and want their money, NOW! End the Fed!
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