The title is an open question like a blank check. Elon Musk would like you to first think about his electric car as an answer. It is called, "Branding." There was an old test back in the late 50s and early 60s that solidified the idea. It would go like this: Name an aspirin? The branded answer would be Bayer. Name a soda? Again, the branded answer would be Coke. Almost every car company even Ferrari is coming out with an electric car, but Musk wants you to first think, Tesla.
Dear reader, Tesla is a huge company with over 33,000 employees and it is more than a electric car company.
Cobalt Ontario, Canada
Tesla is looking into the depressed mining town because in what its name implies. As you may or may not know Musk built a huge factory in the Arizona desert to develop lithium. Lithium is a rare earth mineral that is used in making 21th century batteries. This is the power source for electric cars. Cobalt is the other earth mineral that is used in making cars light weight and strong as well as other uses. However, any miner will tell you, digging holes in the ground is expensive. I love Elon Musk's mind. He thinks big and as the ability to connect the dots to achieve a goal. Amazon has achieved it in retail. Musk is seeking not just cars, but many venues. This,I fear, could be his down bringing. He is over extending himself and his company. An old saying reveals the flaw, "A jack of all trades and a master of none."
Did You Know
that Tesla has many divisions in the company? Tesla offers solar panels, powerwalls, solar roofs for residential and commercial. In addition, it offers a full range of services and infrastructure for utilities. Then, Musk has his other hobbies like the hyper-loop and space travel. By the way, I tip my hat to him for his reusable rocket fuselage. The man does get results. His first model electric car is stylish, gets the best range and it is the safest car ever built. However, just like the word "but," there are many problems at Tesla.
3 Models
There are three versions of electric cars from the company. The original Tesla S, Model X and now, Model 3. The last one is for us. It is affordable at $35,000. At least, that is what Tesla is saying. They say a lot of things like place your reservation and sometime in the next 12 to 18 months, you may get your car. They said that their production would ramp up to 1600 a week and then, to 5,000. So far, the number is a dismal 220.
As a result of this production failure, Musk has decided to sleep in the Gigafactory. Then, he fired 700 employees. The UAW claimed that Musk fired people who wanted to form a union. He said it was due to poor performance. I have my doubts, but let's get back to the divisions within Tesla.
Powerwall
is really a storage battery. It is tied to the solar panel in the solar roof. It can provide energy for up to seven days if regular power goes out. The system is based on average Watt usage of 24 per day. Tesla is aiming for a home run in the utility section. They will design and deploy their distributed energy resources to meet your grid needs. I guess the idea is to allow Tesla to provide for utility company expansion with their service. Tesla claims their assistance will reduce demands on distribution and transmission infrastructure. It is like I said, Tesla says a lot of things, but reality says a different answer.
Maybe with my original question, your answer was investing in the company? There are some things you must understand. Tesla burns through cash like a forest fire eats trees. They lose $619 million and rising. They need the government to continue to provide subsidies to the tune of $4.93 billion per year. These are credits for solar energy and electric cars(clean energy). The stock hit a high in September 2017, however it has slowly declined with each negative quarterly report. It gapped down to $293 and closed last Friday at $306. This company has NEVER made money. Negative volume is building. The stock could fall to $242. If more negative news appears, the stock could test $180, which is major resistance. The company has a large short position which makes for volatile action. I think the stock will fall to $141 and then, consolidate. The 50-day moving average has already been penetrated and the 200-day is $241. The latter is the first resistance mark.
Bottom line:
Musk has failed to show that he can mass produce. Like I stated, I love his drive and accomplishments. If Musk wants us to "brand" his electric car, he has to work his thoughts through and that takes time. Success is not an idea nor does it happen in a day. Maybe he should fire himself for "poor" performance?
Wednesday, November 8, 2017
Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Border Wall: Fiasco in the Making
President Trump made many campaign promises. Today, he insists on keeping one of them. Behind the scenes there are six companies in competition to build the Border Wall.
There are many conflicts concerning the wall. Up front is drugs, to which the Border Patrol was suppose to stop. It has failed, but the wall could help. There are other off beat problems like migration of animals, Indian lands and of course, the question of immigration.
I have no protest against immigration except it should be tied to the economy. In good times we can add more and in tough times, limit the flow. However, there is the question and problem of jobs, particularly service jobs since our government does not protect workers in manufacturing. Illegals take those service jobs. They are considered low paying, but what is not considered is this: It keeps one in the labor force. It is honest labor and many of these jobs pay better than one realizes like lawn service, cooks and hospitality. They can lead to other jobs like in construction. You have to be in it to hear about it.
Big Problem
Today, the flow of Mexicans through the border is not illegal Mexicans, but people from Central American nations. Why is that, you ask?
Because so many global companies have developed manufacturing plants in Mexico along with the loopholes of NAFTA, the Mexican economy has more opportunities than in the US. Mexicans are staying home with better paying jobs. So, in essence, the concept of the wall is probably 20 years too late. Nevertheless, President Trump is going ahead with his promise to build the wall. There were submissions by the hundreds and it has been narrowed down to the final group.
Then, there were 6...
Last week the deadline to submit a prototype by each company ended. There was a subsidiary contract to the six to help cover costs with the guidelines. The final list is: W.G. Yates and Sons, Caddell, Elta North America, KWR Construction, Tefas Sterling, and Fisher Sands & Gravel Company.
The winning model must possess according to the US Customs and Border Patrol, the following:
* must be able to stop digging to enter.
* must be able to stop climbers to enter.
* must be strong enough to prevent penetration to enter.
* must be transparent so agents can see through it.
Dear reader, the more likes that is added the more the final cost. I heard there is one design that includes a solar application. I like this idea because it could generate revenues while helping our energy and environment and probably be the only positive associated with the wall. For example, there is a height mandate. At present, in locations where there is a wall, it rises from 8 to 10 feet. The six finalist have walls going from 18 to 30 feet. Then again, there is no time table for selection of the winner and it must pass Congress to which is the
final obstacle
When the original idea surfaced, cost estimates ran from $100 million and up. Quickly, the cost zoomed to $1billion. Today, (are you sitting?) estimates begin at $20 billion. It seems the price for the wall keeps climbing like our national deficit. Maybe we should add another feature like the Great Wall of China. The ability to walk on it and make it a tourist trap. What do you think?
There are many conflicts concerning the wall. Up front is drugs, to which the Border Patrol was suppose to stop. It has failed, but the wall could help. There are other off beat problems like migration of animals, Indian lands and of course, the question of immigration.
I have no protest against immigration except it should be tied to the economy. In good times we can add more and in tough times, limit the flow. However, there is the question and problem of jobs, particularly service jobs since our government does not protect workers in manufacturing. Illegals take those service jobs. They are considered low paying, but what is not considered is this: It keeps one in the labor force. It is honest labor and many of these jobs pay better than one realizes like lawn service, cooks and hospitality. They can lead to other jobs like in construction. You have to be in it to hear about it.
Big Problem
Today, the flow of Mexicans through the border is not illegal Mexicans, but people from Central American nations. Why is that, you ask?
Because so many global companies have developed manufacturing plants in Mexico along with the loopholes of NAFTA, the Mexican economy has more opportunities than in the US. Mexicans are staying home with better paying jobs. So, in essence, the concept of the wall is probably 20 years too late. Nevertheless, President Trump is going ahead with his promise to build the wall. There were submissions by the hundreds and it has been narrowed down to the final group.
Then, there were 6...
Last week the deadline to submit a prototype by each company ended. There was a subsidiary contract to the six to help cover costs with the guidelines. The final list is: W.G. Yates and Sons, Caddell, Elta North America, KWR Construction, Tefas Sterling, and Fisher Sands & Gravel Company.
The winning model must possess according to the US Customs and Border Patrol, the following:
* must be able to stop digging to enter.
* must be able to stop climbers to enter.
* must be strong enough to prevent penetration to enter.
* must be transparent so agents can see through it.
Dear reader, the more likes that is added the more the final cost. I heard there is one design that includes a solar application. I like this idea because it could generate revenues while helping our energy and environment and probably be the only positive associated with the wall. For example, there is a height mandate. At present, in locations where there is a wall, it rises from 8 to 10 feet. The six finalist have walls going from 18 to 30 feet. Then again, there is no time table for selection of the winner and it must pass Congress to which is the
final obstacle
When the original idea surfaced, cost estimates ran from $100 million and up. Quickly, the cost zoomed to $1billion. Today, (are you sitting?) estimates begin at $20 billion. It seems the price for the wall keeps climbing like our national deficit. Maybe we should add another feature like the Great Wall of China. The ability to walk on it and make it a tourist trap. What do you think?
Wednesday, October 25, 2017
Bitcoin: Why and Why Not?
What is this thing called, "Bitcoin?" There are pictures of a coin with a big, "B" on it everywhere. The picture implies that this is the bitcoin except there is no such actual coin. So, if you want to buy, what do you get? What is its purpose? How do you buy it?
Use Caution
Anytime something catches the public's eye, scams will arise. There are many ways to buy a bitcoin, but the easiest is to go to a reputable firm like Coinbase. You can do it by wire transfer. This company has 10 million customers. They will take your dollars and exchange them for bitcoins. You won't receive any coins in your hand, but an asset in a column indicating how much of the digital cryptocurrency you own.
Facts
There are many stories out there about using the Bitcoin as your digital money. This is the facts on it:
Bitcoin is just a computer program that sets the number of coins at 21 million. However, just like the dollar has 100 pennies in division, each bitcoin can be divided by 100 million. Dear reader, this makes the coin extremely volatile.
The security of any transaction along with privacy is really limited. Only the transfer action in a deal is encrypted. All transactions of spending are recorded.
Now, consider those facts. The present market for its use is limited because governments do not like it. Governments will have to spend to find information so that they can collect taxes. They will also have to spend to counter criminal activity, but I think prosecuting criminals at that point will be easier due to the digital trail. Keep in mind what we already know. Fiat governments fight gold, so this will be a piece of cake for them.
There are bans already in place in China, Russia and S. Korea. However, China is easing and Putin stated that Russia will issue its own cryptocurrency. He better move fast because the field is already crowded. The following is a list of cryptocurrencies:
Ethereum, Litecoin, Monero, Ripple the dollar, Dash the dollar, Zcash, Peercoin and Namecoin. Do you know what I see when I read the list? People are more than willing to take your money even if its fiat, for make believe electronic ledger somewhere on the internet. You could argue that this is no different, but more secure as to what central bankers and banking itself does. They press a button to wire transfer digital accounts. They could and do get hacked except that they have insurance to back up their transactions. When and if the bitcoin gets hacked, you will lose everything. There is no backup and no insurance to cover the program. I like what Prince Alwaleed said, "Bitcoin is Enron waiting to happen." How about this tidbit? Bitcoin approached US home builders to use their coin and the builders rejected the idea.
People, you are letting your imagination run wild with riches. The Bitcoin stories that saw the value explode from $8 to over $6Gs in one year are enticing. You hear and read articles about mogul's like Mike Novogratz who predicted the coin will hit $10Gs by next year. There are others who scream $25G in five tears. Don't let the siren catch your ear. Know your human history like the tulip craze in Holland.
Stand Alone
is never easy especially when you hear that the Bitcoin recently eclipsed $100 billion in capitalization this year which is more than all the gold ETFs and gold mining ETFs. Yeah, this is true for the moment, however many of those ETFs are backed by real gold to which can never be hacked and its value never compromised by governments, central banks or anyone. If your digital ledger goes blank, you are out. If the program gets hacked, you lose everything with no chance for redemption. At that point another will appear seeking to lure you and more importantly, your money with their idea. There is conflict in the world. People like or dislike something like gold, cryptocurrency, euro, whatever. Get what is real, you can hold in your hand, time tested and lasting. Get some GOLD!
Use Caution
Anytime something catches the public's eye, scams will arise. There are many ways to buy a bitcoin, but the easiest is to go to a reputable firm like Coinbase. You can do it by wire transfer. This company has 10 million customers. They will take your dollars and exchange them for bitcoins. You won't receive any coins in your hand, but an asset in a column indicating how much of the digital cryptocurrency you own.
Facts
There are many stories out there about using the Bitcoin as your digital money. This is the facts on it:
Bitcoin is just a computer program that sets the number of coins at 21 million. However, just like the dollar has 100 pennies in division, each bitcoin can be divided by 100 million. Dear reader, this makes the coin extremely volatile.
The security of any transaction along with privacy is really limited. Only the transfer action in a deal is encrypted. All transactions of spending are recorded.
Now, consider those facts. The present market for its use is limited because governments do not like it. Governments will have to spend to find information so that they can collect taxes. They will also have to spend to counter criminal activity, but I think prosecuting criminals at that point will be easier due to the digital trail. Keep in mind what we already know. Fiat governments fight gold, so this will be a piece of cake for them.
There are bans already in place in China, Russia and S. Korea. However, China is easing and Putin stated that Russia will issue its own cryptocurrency. He better move fast because the field is already crowded. The following is a list of cryptocurrencies:
Ethereum, Litecoin, Monero, Ripple the dollar, Dash the dollar, Zcash, Peercoin and Namecoin. Do you know what I see when I read the list? People are more than willing to take your money even if its fiat, for make believe electronic ledger somewhere on the internet. You could argue that this is no different, but more secure as to what central bankers and banking itself does. They press a button to wire transfer digital accounts. They could and do get hacked except that they have insurance to back up their transactions. When and if the bitcoin gets hacked, you will lose everything. There is no backup and no insurance to cover the program. I like what Prince Alwaleed said, "Bitcoin is Enron waiting to happen." How about this tidbit? Bitcoin approached US home builders to use their coin and the builders rejected the idea.
People, you are letting your imagination run wild with riches. The Bitcoin stories that saw the value explode from $8 to over $6Gs in one year are enticing. You hear and read articles about mogul's like Mike Novogratz who predicted the coin will hit $10Gs by next year. There are others who scream $25G in five tears. Don't let the siren catch your ear. Know your human history like the tulip craze in Holland.
Stand Alone
is never easy especially when you hear that the Bitcoin recently eclipsed $100 billion in capitalization this year which is more than all the gold ETFs and gold mining ETFs. Yeah, this is true for the moment, however many of those ETFs are backed by real gold to which can never be hacked and its value never compromised by governments, central banks or anyone. If your digital ledger goes blank, you are out. If the program gets hacked, you lose everything with no chance for redemption. At that point another will appear seeking to lure you and more importantly, your money with their idea. There is conflict in the world. People like or dislike something like gold, cryptocurrency, euro, whatever. Get what is real, you can hold in your hand, time tested and lasting. Get some GOLD!
Wednesday, October 18, 2017
Seeing "Cus" Gene
This week something different and yet, an amazing, miracle like news. For some kids that have a disease that affects sight also known as Leber congenital amaurosis, seeing Cousin Gene is a problem. The good news there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
An FDA panel has unanimously voted to recommend a gene therapy by Sparks pharmaceuticals which makes the treatment. If you are thinking of buying the stock, it is already up 70% this year. I suggest that you wait for a pullback.
No pills
No injections just one treatment. Sparks uses a virus to deliver a healthy copy of a gene to make up for the one that causes the harm or disease. There are others in this field, but Sparks stands to be the first to bring this style of medicine to the US market. At the moment, the recommendations of the panel along with the trials will be decided by the FDA to allow the treatment to be used in the market. The therapy is designed to treat a rare, inherited form of blindness. There is no approved treatment for the disease and people with the condition will go blind.
There has been some incredible success stories associated with Sparks' therapy. The FDA should make their decision by mid-January 2018.
By the way, this treatment and style of medicine is getting a lot of buzz by Big Pharma. The concept has many applications. Pfizer is already partnering with Sparks. Voyager Therapeutics is using genes to work with problems in the brain.(Ma, your prayers for me are answered). Other companies in this field are: Bluebird Bio and Regenxbio.
This is so cool and congrats to the people at Sparks.
Future World
In a related aspect, TransEnterix(TRXC) has received approval for its robotic surgery system, Senhance. In the near future it is possible that a doctor using Senhance robotic system could apply the Sparks treatment to cure the Leber disease. Wow!
An FDA panel has unanimously voted to recommend a gene therapy by Sparks pharmaceuticals which makes the treatment. If you are thinking of buying the stock, it is already up 70% this year. I suggest that you wait for a pullback.
No pills
No injections just one treatment. Sparks uses a virus to deliver a healthy copy of a gene to make up for the one that causes the harm or disease. There are others in this field, but Sparks stands to be the first to bring this style of medicine to the US market. At the moment, the recommendations of the panel along with the trials will be decided by the FDA to allow the treatment to be used in the market. The therapy is designed to treat a rare, inherited form of blindness. There is no approved treatment for the disease and people with the condition will go blind.
There has been some incredible success stories associated with Sparks' therapy. The FDA should make their decision by mid-January 2018.
By the way, this treatment and style of medicine is getting a lot of buzz by Big Pharma. The concept has many applications. Pfizer is already partnering with Sparks. Voyager Therapeutics is using genes to work with problems in the brain.(Ma, your prayers for me are answered). Other companies in this field are: Bluebird Bio and Regenxbio.
This is so cool and congrats to the people at Sparks.
Future World
In a related aspect, TransEnterix(TRXC) has received approval for its robotic surgery system, Senhance. In the near future it is possible that a doctor using Senhance robotic system could apply the Sparks treatment to cure the Leber disease. Wow!
Wednesday, October 11, 2017
Euture Bonds: Safe or Disaster
Question: What is the biggest market, and thus, can cause the greatest economic impact?
Clue: It is a four letter word.
Answer: Bond market.
The Federal Reserve chair, Janet Yellen has stated that the Fed will unwind the securities that it purchased to ease the financial crisis of 2008/09. This will be a slow process and it should not disturb the bond market. Words are easier said than actions and this action has many repercussions. When debt is reduced, premiums for bonds rise. In addition, the Fed has also stated that interest rates will rise. Yellen claims one more increase this year and three in 2018. I say that she, whether she still has a job or not, is bluffing and it won't happen. There are many reasons.
If one were to reread the above, one would realize that the Fed's actions are in conflict. You cannot reduce debt which raises yield and at the same time, control that premium when you are raising interest rates. This is two opposing concepts. Recent history reveals how markets react. Another less valid point is that President Trump may actually fire Yellen in January 2018 and install his puppet.
Financial Crisis 2009
the premium for bonds was over three points. Today, it is 0.25%. This is central for the price of bonds. By the way, the recent historical average is 1.6%.
In a report by Bloomberg on the outlook for government issues, old "Helicopter" Ben Bernanke list three main components. He says this is the make-up for any given bond. First, the bond's premium. Next, the market's expectation for interest rates and thirdly, the inflation level.
Now, put that data to Yellen's outlook. She is raising rates. This kills part of any given bond. As for inflation, we all know it is there, but the Fed does not count what we all need like food, energy and shelter. She is increasing the premium by reducing debt. In essence, she is combating all three components of a bond issue. In addition, who wants an old low paying bond when higher rates are on the horizon?
Dear reader, we should all realize that the Fed is nothing more than a shill for the banking industry. They have destroyed the sound thinking in finances by penalizing savers and glorifying debt. They have basically outlawed gold and old Ben even claimed gold was not money. Such is our life.
100 Year Bond
Yes, this is part of our life and what central bankers are doing in Austria. Think back for a moment 100 years? How much has the world changed? This won't even have value to pass on as inheritance. Insanity is reflected today in our financial leaders. In that vein, if the Federal Reserve were audited, it would be declared bankrupt. Nevertheless, no one wants that box opened. As long as the game is playing, the status quo rule. Maybe this thinking and negative interest rates are new school, but I'm old school - gold backed currency, fight inflation, stable currency and economy.
Keep in mind, rates effect currency. As I say in my unpublished work, all things are connected. The US rate is higher than Europe or Japan which helps the value of the dollar. This was reflected in the dollar in 2016 as it rose to almost par with the euro. Today, even though the US rates are still higher than competing nations, there is pressure on the dollar. Its future will be based on the easy money policies of central banks, the Chinese effort to circumvent the dollar in global trading and the relationship of the dollar to oil or the Petro-dollar.
As you can see rate changes effect many aspects to finances to economies, and especially to bonds. The Fed is banking on higher rates to protect the dollar and at the same time, using the easy money policies of other central banks as a counterweight to their policies. The Fed believes it can reduce its holdings, raise rates to a more normal level and stabilize the bond market. I say Shakespeare had it right, "Oh, what a tangle web we weave when we deceive."
Clue: It is a four letter word.
Answer: Bond market.
The Federal Reserve chair, Janet Yellen has stated that the Fed will unwind the securities that it purchased to ease the financial crisis of 2008/09. This will be a slow process and it should not disturb the bond market. Words are easier said than actions and this action has many repercussions. When debt is reduced, premiums for bonds rise. In addition, the Fed has also stated that interest rates will rise. Yellen claims one more increase this year and three in 2018. I say that she, whether she still has a job or not, is bluffing and it won't happen. There are many reasons.
If one were to reread the above, one would realize that the Fed's actions are in conflict. You cannot reduce debt which raises yield and at the same time, control that premium when you are raising interest rates. This is two opposing concepts. Recent history reveals how markets react. Another less valid point is that President Trump may actually fire Yellen in January 2018 and install his puppet.
Financial Crisis 2009
the premium for bonds was over three points. Today, it is 0.25%. This is central for the price of bonds. By the way, the recent historical average is 1.6%.
In a report by Bloomberg on the outlook for government issues, old "Helicopter" Ben Bernanke list three main components. He says this is the make-up for any given bond. First, the bond's premium. Next, the market's expectation for interest rates and thirdly, the inflation level.
Now, put that data to Yellen's outlook. She is raising rates. This kills part of any given bond. As for inflation, we all know it is there, but the Fed does not count what we all need like food, energy and shelter. She is increasing the premium by reducing debt. In essence, she is combating all three components of a bond issue. In addition, who wants an old low paying bond when higher rates are on the horizon?
Dear reader, we should all realize that the Fed is nothing more than a shill for the banking industry. They have destroyed the sound thinking in finances by penalizing savers and glorifying debt. They have basically outlawed gold and old Ben even claimed gold was not money. Such is our life.
100 Year Bond
Yes, this is part of our life and what central bankers are doing in Austria. Think back for a moment 100 years? How much has the world changed? This won't even have value to pass on as inheritance. Insanity is reflected today in our financial leaders. In that vein, if the Federal Reserve were audited, it would be declared bankrupt. Nevertheless, no one wants that box opened. As long as the game is playing, the status quo rule. Maybe this thinking and negative interest rates are new school, but I'm old school - gold backed currency, fight inflation, stable currency and economy.
Keep in mind, rates effect currency. As I say in my unpublished work, all things are connected. The US rate is higher than Europe or Japan which helps the value of the dollar. This was reflected in the dollar in 2016 as it rose to almost par with the euro. Today, even though the US rates are still higher than competing nations, there is pressure on the dollar. Its future will be based on the easy money policies of central banks, the Chinese effort to circumvent the dollar in global trading and the relationship of the dollar to oil or the Petro-dollar.
As you can see rate changes effect many aspects to finances to economies, and especially to bonds. The Fed is banking on higher rates to protect the dollar and at the same time, using the easy money policies of other central banks as a counterweight to their policies. The Fed believes it can reduce its holdings, raise rates to a more normal level and stabilize the bond market. I say Shakespeare had it right, "Oh, what a tangle web we weave when we deceive."
Wednesday, October 4, 2017
Remix at WH and Market
If one were to step back and look at the recent doings at the White House and the stock market, the results would differ from the accepted reality. In this perspective that word "reality" is central to the findings.
President Trump finally offered his much anticipated tax overhaul plan. From my early view of it, in the long term, it will put the US national deficit to a point where it can never be repaid to which a collapse is certain for our economy, our dollar and government. In the short term it offers a chance to revitalize our domestic manufacturing industries. This will help the middle class and social mobility. This is good. However, the real tax relief is going to the rich under the same old same old BS that this will spur investment. Yeah, the third house far enough away from any possible nuclear catastrophe that the war drums are indicating. It will spur yacht building and sales for the rich to escape(see previous reason). I should include the private jets along with fly-in communities.
In weighing the plus and minus of the tax plan, I'm not for the individual tax allocations, but I do like the business side of the plan. We need physical manufacturing plants here in the US that offer living wages and future social mobility. As for individual tax brackets, I would close all high end loopholes beginning with our homeownership interest deduction. I'd cap the mortgage deduction at one million. This will raise revenues and end the escalating home price spiral. Someone is building a home in LA that will cost one half billion dollars. This is just a $500 million tax loophole. See what I mean? I would increase the top bracket to 50%. It is about time that the wealthy pay their fair share. I would demand a balanced budget and include a category to pay down the national debt, but that is just me and those ideas are a long way from reality.
Reality
We are back to that word. President Trump seems to act like he still is on a TV reality show. In his old show, he fired someone. In the White House he has the same policy. He has asked someone to step down or he has fired a cabinet member nine times. This works out to one a month, but it has not helped his ratings. They are down and falling which is the opposite from the buzz about all the new changes to Washington from the outsider. The president complains that he cannot get someone to do what he wants which is why he switched teams to work with Democrats in the debt ceiling deal. Yeah, give a politician an open check book to spend like the guy he just fired as the agricultural secretary who spent $476,000 on travel expenses. This is like an episode of American Greed. If we don't get a third political party for our nation, things are looking very, very bad.
Stock Market
has the same buzz as the WH and it too, is misleading. The market was spurred by the Fed and low interest rates after the financial crisis. Tech led the way. If one follows Dow Theory, it is in harmony. The Dow and the Transports are at record highs. Even the once hard pressed Baltic Dry Shipping Index is in an uptrend. Leadership however, is no longer techs. This will take many by surprise. If you have a tech mutual fund or wealthy enough to be in a hedge fund, your next statement will upset your morning coffee. At present, the financials and energy are helping the market. This won't last. It is based on expectation. Financial expect the Fed to raise rates which helps them. Won't happen. Energy had multiple pluses from OPEC cutbacks to hurricanes. Won't last. In addition, the specter of electric cars is changing the landscape. Finally, let's take a closer look at tech and why so many will see red with their morning coffee.
AAPL: anyone who purchased shares since early August is in a losing position. Dear reader, if we buy our hundred shares, we would be down one grand. Your mutual fund or hedge fund buys by the million. They will be down ten million or more.
AMZN: anyone who purchased shares since mid-July is in a losing position. Your mutual fund or hedge fund is down over $114 million.
GOOG: anyone who purchased shares from the end of July is in a losing position. Your mutual fund or hedge fund is down $31 million.
The other big three, NFLX, MSFT and FB are threading water and they all have gaps which love to be closed.
In addition, NASDAQ itself is deceiving. It is at record highs. Of all the different companies listed, 40% are trading below their 200-day moving average and most are in a bear market.
Together, this all indicates a market that is ready for a correction. I would time it to the cabinet member who cannot get Trump's tax plan through Congress. When he steps down, the market will use the elevator in the same direction.
President Trump finally offered his much anticipated tax overhaul plan. From my early view of it, in the long term, it will put the US national deficit to a point where it can never be repaid to which a collapse is certain for our economy, our dollar and government. In the short term it offers a chance to revitalize our domestic manufacturing industries. This will help the middle class and social mobility. This is good. However, the real tax relief is going to the rich under the same old same old BS that this will spur investment. Yeah, the third house far enough away from any possible nuclear catastrophe that the war drums are indicating. It will spur yacht building and sales for the rich to escape(see previous reason). I should include the private jets along with fly-in communities.
In weighing the plus and minus of the tax plan, I'm not for the individual tax allocations, but I do like the business side of the plan. We need physical manufacturing plants here in the US that offer living wages and future social mobility. As for individual tax brackets, I would close all high end loopholes beginning with our homeownership interest deduction. I'd cap the mortgage deduction at one million. This will raise revenues and end the escalating home price spiral. Someone is building a home in LA that will cost one half billion dollars. This is just a $500 million tax loophole. See what I mean? I would increase the top bracket to 50%. It is about time that the wealthy pay their fair share. I would demand a balanced budget and include a category to pay down the national debt, but that is just me and those ideas are a long way from reality.
Reality
We are back to that word. President Trump seems to act like he still is on a TV reality show. In his old show, he fired someone. In the White House he has the same policy. He has asked someone to step down or he has fired a cabinet member nine times. This works out to one a month, but it has not helped his ratings. They are down and falling which is the opposite from the buzz about all the new changes to Washington from the outsider. The president complains that he cannot get someone to do what he wants which is why he switched teams to work with Democrats in the debt ceiling deal. Yeah, give a politician an open check book to spend like the guy he just fired as the agricultural secretary who spent $476,000 on travel expenses. This is like an episode of American Greed. If we don't get a third political party for our nation, things are looking very, very bad.
Stock Market
has the same buzz as the WH and it too, is misleading. The market was spurred by the Fed and low interest rates after the financial crisis. Tech led the way. If one follows Dow Theory, it is in harmony. The Dow and the Transports are at record highs. Even the once hard pressed Baltic Dry Shipping Index is in an uptrend. Leadership however, is no longer techs. This will take many by surprise. If you have a tech mutual fund or wealthy enough to be in a hedge fund, your next statement will upset your morning coffee. At present, the financials and energy are helping the market. This won't last. It is based on expectation. Financial expect the Fed to raise rates which helps them. Won't happen. Energy had multiple pluses from OPEC cutbacks to hurricanes. Won't last. In addition, the specter of electric cars is changing the landscape. Finally, let's take a closer look at tech and why so many will see red with their morning coffee.
AAPL: anyone who purchased shares since early August is in a losing position. Dear reader, if we buy our hundred shares, we would be down one grand. Your mutual fund or hedge fund buys by the million. They will be down ten million or more.
AMZN: anyone who purchased shares since mid-July is in a losing position. Your mutual fund or hedge fund is down over $114 million.
GOOG: anyone who purchased shares from the end of July is in a losing position. Your mutual fund or hedge fund is down $31 million.
The other big three, NFLX, MSFT and FB are threading water and they all have gaps which love to be closed.
In addition, NASDAQ itself is deceiving. It is at record highs. Of all the different companies listed, 40% are trading below their 200-day moving average and most are in a bear market.
Together, this all indicates a market that is ready for a correction. I would time it to the cabinet member who cannot get Trump's tax plan through Congress. When he steps down, the market will use the elevator in the same direction.
Wednesday, September 27, 2017
Sports Retail: Anatomy of a Losing Season
Week three in the new NFL season and viewership is down 10%. If this trend continues, this will be the third straight down year for the sport. They are not alone. Baseball and basketball have been getting by because of TV revenue and not attendance. You can add hockey to that list. What's happening?
New Kids on the Block
Many years ago some single minded kids began using their free time to do different activities like cross/bike and skate boarding. This is nothing new in American child development. Generally, these new choices end with that particular generation. The mainstays like football, baseball and basketball dominate the majority. However, child rearing has changed. Kids no longer meet on the street, schoolyard or park. Today, parents take them to planned activities like soccer, karate class or similar. In addition, the advent of video games which combined with television and you had the seeds for new likes and interests.
Our Culture
is strongly effected by the media. When you had stars like Mickey and Yogi in the early 60s, baseball was king, the national past time.
When college football drew our attention with Roger Staubach or Lombardi's Packers in the NFL, the sport zoomed passed baseball to number one. With the introduction of the Super Bowl, it has retained that position ever since. Basketball grew with Magic Johnson and the Lakers versus Larry Bird and the Celtics. However, it has failed to keep our attention since that glory decade. Nevertheless, it has held a steady position in our culture all this time. All of the three major sports are American made and developed. They have been exported to the world, but of the three, basketball will always have a position due to the fact that you can play by yourself with limited expense to enjoy. It is not unique in the aspect of individual expression, but it beats golf, boxing or karate in my opinion. With all that said, television media has lost market share and its audience to the internet. The kids live on their smart phones, laptops and tablets.
Is that all you got?
No, and since this blog centers on our democracy and economy, let me show you the difference in dollars and cents.
The following is a strong representation of our sports apparel through the eyes of stock trends and price.
Company & symbol Price: Was Now
Dick's Sporting Goods(DKS) high was in November 2016 @ $62. $26.
Nike (NKE) high was in November 2015 @ $67 $53.
Finish Line(FINL) high was in September 2014 @ $31 $9.
Foot Locker(FL) high was in December 2016 @ $79 $33.
Under Armour(UA) high was in May 2016 @ $44 $15.
Keep in mind that during the same period Sports Authority went bankrupt. Their end was suppose to give a lift to everyone else. Didn't happen! This is another nail into sports retail. In addition, there are many retail stores that carry sports material from supermarkets to dollar locations. Should I mention the bid brick and mortars like J.C. Penny, Sears or Macy's? Of course, as they close stores, sales decline for sports apparel merchandise. Now, while the above has caused the old mainstays to drift to the bottom of the totem pole, the new kids are rising. For many moons the couch potatoes stocks drifted lower after a huge expansion, however the gamers are now leading the pack. They have there own tournaments, conventions and following. This is reflected in the big three that makes the product that kids buy. The results are mixed, but generally upbeat.
Game Stop(GME) high was in December 2015 @ $42 $20.
Activision(ATVI) was $29 in July 2015 $83
Electronic Arts(EA) was consolidating between $60 & $70 $118.
Of course, this is not the complete sports outlook. You always have a season in life for different tastes. Golf is such an example. The sport is cynical. If you look at Callaway Golf, the high was during the financial crisis at $18. It fell like everything during that time, but it has slowly climbed back and sits at $14. Nevertheless, youth will be served, but as for me, I play fantasy football and I wear Notre Dame logos. To each his own. Go Irish!
New Kids on the Block
Many years ago some single minded kids began using their free time to do different activities like cross/bike and skate boarding. This is nothing new in American child development. Generally, these new choices end with that particular generation. The mainstays like football, baseball and basketball dominate the majority. However, child rearing has changed. Kids no longer meet on the street, schoolyard or park. Today, parents take them to planned activities like soccer, karate class or similar. In addition, the advent of video games which combined with television and you had the seeds for new likes and interests.
Our Culture
is strongly effected by the media. When you had stars like Mickey and Yogi in the early 60s, baseball was king, the national past time.
When college football drew our attention with Roger Staubach or Lombardi's Packers in the NFL, the sport zoomed passed baseball to number one. With the introduction of the Super Bowl, it has retained that position ever since. Basketball grew with Magic Johnson and the Lakers versus Larry Bird and the Celtics. However, it has failed to keep our attention since that glory decade. Nevertheless, it has held a steady position in our culture all this time. All of the three major sports are American made and developed. They have been exported to the world, but of the three, basketball will always have a position due to the fact that you can play by yourself with limited expense to enjoy. It is not unique in the aspect of individual expression, but it beats golf, boxing or karate in my opinion. With all that said, television media has lost market share and its audience to the internet. The kids live on their smart phones, laptops and tablets.
Is that all you got?
No, and since this blog centers on our democracy and economy, let me show you the difference in dollars and cents.
The following is a strong representation of our sports apparel through the eyes of stock trends and price.
Company & symbol Price: Was Now
Dick's Sporting Goods(DKS) high was in November 2016 @ $62. $26.
Nike (NKE) high was in November 2015 @ $67 $53.
Finish Line(FINL) high was in September 2014 @ $31 $9.
Foot Locker(FL) high was in December 2016 @ $79 $33.
Under Armour(UA) high was in May 2016 @ $44 $15.
Keep in mind that during the same period Sports Authority went bankrupt. Their end was suppose to give a lift to everyone else. Didn't happen! This is another nail into sports retail. In addition, there are many retail stores that carry sports material from supermarkets to dollar locations. Should I mention the bid brick and mortars like J.C. Penny, Sears or Macy's? Of course, as they close stores, sales decline for sports apparel merchandise. Now, while the above has caused the old mainstays to drift to the bottom of the totem pole, the new kids are rising. For many moons the couch potatoes stocks drifted lower after a huge expansion, however the gamers are now leading the pack. They have there own tournaments, conventions and following. This is reflected in the big three that makes the product that kids buy. The results are mixed, but generally upbeat.
Game Stop(GME) high was in December 2015 @ $42 $20.
Activision(ATVI) was $29 in July 2015 $83
Electronic Arts(EA) was consolidating between $60 & $70 $118.
Of course, this is not the complete sports outlook. You always have a season in life for different tastes. Golf is such an example. The sport is cynical. If you look at Callaway Golf, the high was during the financial crisis at $18. It fell like everything during that time, but it has slowly climbed back and sits at $14. Nevertheless, youth will be served, but as for me, I play fantasy football and I wear Notre Dame logos. To each his own. Go Irish!
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