There are meetings that you would have liked to be a fly on the wall. How about the decision meeting to make my favorite comedy, It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World?
For you young folks and citizens of foreign nations, it is a story of human foibles. It was made at a time when Hollywood actually made movies with a plot and character actors gave the films depth. In a nutshell a bank robber is fleeing LA. He panics while driving along a dangerous road. He wipes out. His car crashes off a cliff. Innocent bystanders stop to assist. A small group tries to help the man, but he dies. Just prior to dying, he informs his helpers that he hid his money under the "Big W."
They debate and think nothing of it until each sees another turn around on the highway, going back to LA. The madness begins. This is a great, great and funny movie with a fabulous cast which includes the 3 Stooges. Enough said. The rest takes you and me back to today.
ECB
They had their private meeting last week. Mario Draghi attended his next to last meeting. His eight year term is ending with Christine Lagarde taking over the ECB. He is going out the way that he came into the chairperson position. He cut rates into a deeper negative yield and he reinstituted QE. He prints money like you and me breathe air. The above movie could make a sequel today centered around central banking. This is not a foible. This is idiocy. You buy a bond and you guarantee that you will lose money over its maturity. These geniuses would rather lose money than admit that they are wrong. That fiat money never succeeds and one cannot engineer an economy. They never speak of gold, especially as a currency.
Fed
They will have their private meeting on the 18th. President Trump has put pressure on the chairman, Powell to cut rates. Trump wants the dollar lower to help with exports. He has pointed to the Fed that Europe with Draghi just cut rates and he expresses the same path to include negative rates. Keep in mind when Trump was wheeling and dealing in his younger days, he was constantly seeking cheap money to finance his buying sprees. Needless to remind you that many of his business went bankrupt and he was close a few times himself. By the way his federal budget is already over one trillion to the red. He does not know how to save for a rainy day and the weather outlook has clouds on the horizon.
We, at Evolution of Democracy expect the ego of Powell to cut rates again like he did in the last meeting. I, especially use the word ego because President Trump has suggested that he might seek a way to fire Powell, if he does not do what the president desires. The market is expecting this cut. If Powell shows some gumption and hold rates, the market will rollover. This could be a no show or big showdown. We'll know later today.
In an open meeting former chair, Greenspan said, "The US will get negative rates." He does not blame fiat money for this rate movement. However, we already knew that he is a hypocrite from his quick switch from gold to fiat. His classic essay on money backs gold, but later in life when offered the job at the Fed, he changed his position. Nothing like money to give one a different perspective. Of course, his ego helps too.
And then this - on Tuesday the New York Fed governor had to inject $53B to steady the overnight repo market. This happens when short tern rates run up too fast and there is not enough liquidity in' the market. Now, he say the market will need another $75B on Wednesday. Yeah, these guys have things under control. The last time the N.Y. Fed had to enact such measures was in 2008. Didn't Bernanke say at the time, "all is contained"?
The rest of the followers...
they play the currency manipulation game. They will cut as they have done already 38 times since the Fed changed course and stop raising interest rates. To give you some more perspective, central banks have cut rates 14 times since August which followed 8 cuts in July. Dear Reader, this foolish practice by emerging markets along with Japan and China. This does not help their economies. They forget that their biggest expense is oil. They need to buy US dollars to purchase oil. By cheapening their currency to drive exports, they increase their deficits to purchase necessities like oil. No one seems to look out into the horizon to see the storm clouds forming. Central banks are raising cash today by selling negative bonds. Tomorrow, they will be in a deeper hole because they are guarantying that they lose money over the duration. Yes, this is a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World.
Wednesday, September 18, 2019
Wednesday, September 11, 2019
Transition
Pot could generate big income and government always wants revenue. This is why we can drink and gamble. Our federal government is looking into the legalization of pot just like the 11 states that allow recreational use and the 33 (Majority) that allow medical use of cannabis. With that said, consider the following.
This is the point in time where we are at in the US. A 69-year old woman from North Carolina can testify after she testifies in court. She was arrested outside the gates of Disney World in Orlando, Florida with the possession of hashish oil. She told the police that it is CBD oil for pain. It is made from pot. The police like to make their arrests appear better by making the innocent victim appear more guilty before going to court which compromises innocent until proven guilty. Go figure?
How about this? Two truck drivers were pulled over in Idaho for transporting pot. They told the police that they were carrying hemp which by the way, is now legal in the US. The cops put them in jail anyway. They are awaiting trial.
The two episodes reveal the daily problem with cannabis in America. Although the federal law still makes marijuana illegal, it is legal in 33 states in one form or another. It is legal in 10 states and D. C. for recreational use. The problem is simple. What is legal in one state may not be legal in another. With that said, the trend for national legalization is a work in progress.
What's in it for me?
You asked and I'll answer. There is a $4 trillion market out there and cannabis will disrupt it. Companies that sell alcohol, tobacco, pharmaceuticals and soft drinks will be the target. Here is a breakdown in the category.
*Pharmaceutical = $1.1 trillion
*Alcohol = $1.5 trillion
*Soft drinks = $1.1 trillion
*Tobacco = $ 791 billion
*Illicit market = $ 200 billion
Cannabis will be competition to all these markets and then, there will be the growing, creative uses under medical and therapeutic. The categories will expand with usage. I like Aurora (ACB). The leader in the field is Canopy Growth. The two companies have a leg up on the competition through the legalization of weed in Canada. I believe that there will be enough profits to go around and even fund a sequel to Cheeks and Chong's, Up In Smoke.
However...
Even with all the good news surrounding pot companies and their explosive revenues, the various stock firms are all languishing in the market. Why, you ask?
One of the chief reasons is behind the scenes politics along with corruption. Big, greedy money did not jump into these firms from the get-go. They played a wait-and-see approach. After the dust settled, which is now, they are seeking entry. With that said, they want the cheap, original offer price. Many of these big cats have stakes in the competition to which is listed above. The "sin" stockholders have no qualms about the virtues of the product, only the profits. These same people have the Congressional members on their sim card. We, at Evolution, can only hypothesis what that phone call might have said. We ascertain this theory from what we are clearly able to see. The police have allowed illegal pot/medical shops to operate out in the open. The kid on the corner has been replaced by an air-conditioned shop in an outlet shopping center.
Just in LA
The black market operators have over 250 stores un that city that dispense Mary Jane. Estimates range that these outlets earn 7x what legal firms sell. Dear Reader, this is lost tax revenue for California. This is happening in over 33 states. The government has not acted, but I can tell you that they have been collecting data. I see a big change coming. If you want a prediction, I say that on this Halloween, the police coordinate with a huge
Crack Down
like a flash back to prohibition era. They will raid and close all these shops. The next day, all those suffering pot firms that are listed will rise like smoke into the upper layers. Maybe like a sequel to Up In Smoke Two?
This is the point in time where we are at in the US. A 69-year old woman from North Carolina can testify after she testifies in court. She was arrested outside the gates of Disney World in Orlando, Florida with the possession of hashish oil. She told the police that it is CBD oil for pain. It is made from pot. The police like to make their arrests appear better by making the innocent victim appear more guilty before going to court which compromises innocent until proven guilty. Go figure?
How about this? Two truck drivers were pulled over in Idaho for transporting pot. They told the police that they were carrying hemp which by the way, is now legal in the US. The cops put them in jail anyway. They are awaiting trial.
The two episodes reveal the daily problem with cannabis in America. Although the federal law still makes marijuana illegal, it is legal in 33 states in one form or another. It is legal in 10 states and D. C. for recreational use. The problem is simple. What is legal in one state may not be legal in another. With that said, the trend for national legalization is a work in progress.
What's in it for me?
You asked and I'll answer. There is a $4 trillion market out there and cannabis will disrupt it. Companies that sell alcohol, tobacco, pharmaceuticals and soft drinks will be the target. Here is a breakdown in the category.
*Pharmaceutical = $1.1 trillion
*Alcohol = $1.5 trillion
*Soft drinks = $1.1 trillion
*Tobacco = $ 791 billion
*Illicit market = $ 200 billion
Cannabis will be competition to all these markets and then, there will be the growing, creative uses under medical and therapeutic. The categories will expand with usage. I like Aurora (ACB). The leader in the field is Canopy Growth. The two companies have a leg up on the competition through the legalization of weed in Canada. I believe that there will be enough profits to go around and even fund a sequel to Cheeks and Chong's, Up In Smoke.
However...
Even with all the good news surrounding pot companies and their explosive revenues, the various stock firms are all languishing in the market. Why, you ask?
One of the chief reasons is behind the scenes politics along with corruption. Big, greedy money did not jump into these firms from the get-go. They played a wait-and-see approach. After the dust settled, which is now, they are seeking entry. With that said, they want the cheap, original offer price. Many of these big cats have stakes in the competition to which is listed above. The "sin" stockholders have no qualms about the virtues of the product, only the profits. These same people have the Congressional members on their sim card. We, at Evolution, can only hypothesis what that phone call might have said. We ascertain this theory from what we are clearly able to see. The police have allowed illegal pot/medical shops to operate out in the open. The kid on the corner has been replaced by an air-conditioned shop in an outlet shopping center.
Just in LA
The black market operators have over 250 stores un that city that dispense Mary Jane. Estimates range that these outlets earn 7x what legal firms sell. Dear Reader, this is lost tax revenue for California. This is happening in over 33 states. The government has not acted, but I can tell you that they have been collecting data. I see a big change coming. If you want a prediction, I say that on this Halloween, the police coordinate with a huge
Crack Down
like a flash back to prohibition era. They will raid and close all these shops. The next day, all those suffering pot firms that are listed will rise like smoke into the upper layers. Maybe like a sequel to Up In Smoke Two?
Wednesday, September 4, 2019
Gold is Soaring, But...
you may not have the dough available to get on the gold train? Or maybe you think that I'll get into it on the next pullback? However, did you not have this decision point before and passed? When gold rose from $1275 to $1325 back in June, did you get in? How about your second chance when gold rose from $1400 to $1500 in late July, early August? The point is this, there is fear in investing, especially for ordinary citizens with limited resources. This is why I say to you, here and now, why not choose...
The Poor Man's Gold
SILVER! That's right. The other precious metal like the slogan for pork, the other white meat. Historically, and I'm talking about the period before central banks came into power, silver had a gold ratio of 16 ounces of silver for one ounce of gold. After the Fed came into being in 1913 that spread began to widen. Silver fluctuated from 25 to 40 per one ounce of gold. As central banks pushed gold out of the monetary equation, the spread continued to widen. Today, it runs up to 95, but generally stabilizes around 89 ounces for one ounce of gold. This is why silver is even a better opportunity than gold.
For the remainder of this piece, I will refer to gold unless more clarity is needed. The reason is simple: if gold rises, so does silver and the opposite is also true. Let us look at gold.
Hitting All-time Highs versus...
all the major currencies: the euro, the British pound, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar amongst others. This makes the precious metals a world-wide event. As a result new money is entering the commodity. If you have more people in the store, you will have more sales. However, there are two threats...
Fed and Banking Industry
The Federal Reserve and central banks throughout the world picked fiat money ages ago. They will seek to protect their choice. Their problem is printing without responsibility has devalued fiat currencies and excessive debt has got to a point where not only do they need to keep interest rates low, but seek even a lower formula. This has led them to negative yields. These intellectual midgets think that they can engineer an economy. They play God. By doing this, they oppose their old argument against gold. They use to say that gold does not pay any interest and it cost money to store it (Like each of us has so much that we need a safe deposit box). Now, with the push into negative bonds, your dollar value will be less than your original purchase price. You lose money! Gold on the other hand always maintains value and it can also rise to a value 10x any interest rate. Keep in mind, that all fiat money has no value other than the government declaring it legal tender. If another chooses not to accept your dollar, then what?
Gold never has this problem because it always maintains value. It is not political. It cannot default. It does not need government compliance which is one reason why government hates it. Gold protects the citizen by keeping its value while government has lost its focus to put you first.
The danger is this: the Fed can manipulate interest rates and it can use the media as its pulpit.
Sadly, our media does not possess the strength of character to oppose central banks. They do not foster an opposing view or find economic disciples like myself to offer an opposing view to central banks policies.
The other danger with the Fed is in its second Congressional mandate: stabilize prices. In the past the Fed and central banks worked together. They would announce an agreement like Bretton Woods. They could do this again. I don't think that they can get it going until some new crisis develops like the Brexit event with the EU. They will try something. You can "bank" on it.
The other danger is the banking industry. Lately, large institutional banking firms have come out to say that gold is in a bull market. They have raised their target price and they have purchased large investments into precious metals. Dear Reader, these people stand with central banks and fiat money. There are been many prosecutions of traders in large firms like J.P. Morgan Chase for trying to manipulate the precious metal market. Mainly, they short metals to which keeps the price low. They may try this technique again since they have a large investment into the precious metals. This is risky for them as new money enters the market, but bumps will appear along the way. This is why it is for your benefit to understand charting and resistance levels.
Back to Hi, Ho Silver!
The above trend helps make any investment into silver less risky. The charts are bullish on it. Last Friday, silver closed at $18.34. The momentum is strong. The present continuous contract reached almost 500 million. The next target price is $19.71. That's a ironic number because in 1971 Nixon took us officially off the gold standard. Anyway, silver has enough energy to pass that level. The real resistance point is $21. If silver maintains its strength, and passes this point, there is no resistance until $35. That people, is a rocket ship that you can afford and put some eggs in your nest basket. Personally, I like Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM). It is a streamer and it has very little risk. It gets around half of its value from gold and the other half from silver from mining companies that they financed. It pays a dividend, but if you reinvest the cash, the company pays you 3%. If you cannot afford to buy shares, then get some silver coins. You can finance them in a IRA account. Another option is to buy "junk silver." Those are old silver coins that use to flow within our currency back in the day of the gold standard. The last year for these coins is 1964.
Finally, since silver is the tail of gold, let me give you its projection. Currently, gold is aiming for $1575. Once it reaches this level, a pullback is in order. Gold could fall back to $1480-1490. If it does, jump into silver with both feet. The Fed is trapped. The banking industry really cannot afford to fight the tape and together, this gives you a chance of a lifetime. As the Lone Ranger would say, "Away, Silver!" That's beautiful. Peace.
The Poor Man's Gold
SILVER! That's right. The other precious metal like the slogan for pork, the other white meat. Historically, and I'm talking about the period before central banks came into power, silver had a gold ratio of 16 ounces of silver for one ounce of gold. After the Fed came into being in 1913 that spread began to widen. Silver fluctuated from 25 to 40 per one ounce of gold. As central banks pushed gold out of the monetary equation, the spread continued to widen. Today, it runs up to 95, but generally stabilizes around 89 ounces for one ounce of gold. This is why silver is even a better opportunity than gold.
For the remainder of this piece, I will refer to gold unless more clarity is needed. The reason is simple: if gold rises, so does silver and the opposite is also true. Let us look at gold.
Hitting All-time Highs versus...
all the major currencies: the euro, the British pound, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar amongst others. This makes the precious metals a world-wide event. As a result new money is entering the commodity. If you have more people in the store, you will have more sales. However, there are two threats...
Fed and Banking Industry
The Federal Reserve and central banks throughout the world picked fiat money ages ago. They will seek to protect their choice. Their problem is printing without responsibility has devalued fiat currencies and excessive debt has got to a point where not only do they need to keep interest rates low, but seek even a lower formula. This has led them to negative yields. These intellectual midgets think that they can engineer an economy. They play God. By doing this, they oppose their old argument against gold. They use to say that gold does not pay any interest and it cost money to store it (Like each of us has so much that we need a safe deposit box). Now, with the push into negative bonds, your dollar value will be less than your original purchase price. You lose money! Gold on the other hand always maintains value and it can also rise to a value 10x any interest rate. Keep in mind, that all fiat money has no value other than the government declaring it legal tender. If another chooses not to accept your dollar, then what?
Gold never has this problem because it always maintains value. It is not political. It cannot default. It does not need government compliance which is one reason why government hates it. Gold protects the citizen by keeping its value while government has lost its focus to put you first.
The danger is this: the Fed can manipulate interest rates and it can use the media as its pulpit.
Sadly, our media does not possess the strength of character to oppose central banks. They do not foster an opposing view or find economic disciples like myself to offer an opposing view to central banks policies.
The other danger with the Fed is in its second Congressional mandate: stabilize prices. In the past the Fed and central banks worked together. They would announce an agreement like Bretton Woods. They could do this again. I don't think that they can get it going until some new crisis develops like the Brexit event with the EU. They will try something. You can "bank" on it.
The other danger is the banking industry. Lately, large institutional banking firms have come out to say that gold is in a bull market. They have raised their target price and they have purchased large investments into precious metals. Dear Reader, these people stand with central banks and fiat money. There are been many prosecutions of traders in large firms like J.P. Morgan Chase for trying to manipulate the precious metal market. Mainly, they short metals to which keeps the price low. They may try this technique again since they have a large investment into the precious metals. This is risky for them as new money enters the market, but bumps will appear along the way. This is why it is for your benefit to understand charting and resistance levels.
Back to Hi, Ho Silver!
The above trend helps make any investment into silver less risky. The charts are bullish on it. Last Friday, silver closed at $18.34. The momentum is strong. The present continuous contract reached almost 500 million. The next target price is $19.71. That's a ironic number because in 1971 Nixon took us officially off the gold standard. Anyway, silver has enough energy to pass that level. The real resistance point is $21. If silver maintains its strength, and passes this point, there is no resistance until $35. That people, is a rocket ship that you can afford and put some eggs in your nest basket. Personally, I like Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM). It is a streamer and it has very little risk. It gets around half of its value from gold and the other half from silver from mining companies that they financed. It pays a dividend, but if you reinvest the cash, the company pays you 3%. If you cannot afford to buy shares, then get some silver coins. You can finance them in a IRA account. Another option is to buy "junk silver." Those are old silver coins that use to flow within our currency back in the day of the gold standard. The last year for these coins is 1964.
Finally, since silver is the tail of gold, let me give you its projection. Currently, gold is aiming for $1575. Once it reaches this level, a pullback is in order. Gold could fall back to $1480-1490. If it does, jump into silver with both feet. The Fed is trapped. The banking industry really cannot afford to fight the tape and together, this gives you a chance of a lifetime. As the Lone Ranger would say, "Away, Silver!" That's beautiful. Peace.
Wednesday, August 28, 2019
Odds and Ends August 2019
This is the end...
Jim Morrison of the Doors used the words in a hit song. You may have seen a ding-dong holding the words on a street corner sign, but sadly, it is really here.
Scientist have discovered that rainwater now contains plastic residue. This means plastic will be in our crops, drinking water and consumed by our livestock in grass and feed. It will run within our veins until it causes a blockage and we DIE!
This could produce a cancerous plague like the Black Plague that hit Europe in the Middle Ages. I have a partial answer to save fresh water, but mankind will need a communal research team to find a way to sanitize rainwater to make it safe again.
This sad report makes everything else pall in comparison. Is it not said, "Waste not, want not?" Protect His earth!
American Ways Are Also Dying
It seems like bad news follows more bad news. A consumer report says that one-fourth of all US malls are already gone along with 500 department stores that shuttered their doors for good. Remember those old fake ads in your local newspaper saying, "Going out of business! Everything 75% off!" Well, now they are for real. The outlook is worse. Amazon controls 50% of all online shopping. Keep in mind that the US consumer accounts for 70% of the economy. The US consumer is changing its preference. For the retail survivors they will need to expand their e-commerce and yet, somehow keep the live store experience one that consumers will cherish.
Sebastian asks, "Where will all those lost jobs find new employment?" Speaking of employment, the latest revision by the Bureau of Labor Statistics says that, are you ready for this, 501,000 reported jobs were miscalculated. The bureau was off by 501,000. Nothing like appointing your own people to make you look good with false reports.
New Home sales...
plunged in July by 12.8%. This leads to a yearly projection of 635K units. That figure is pathetic! To put that number in perspective, consider that during the 80s and 90s in Orlando, Florida, which is a small city, that metropolitan sold more than the projected total for this year. Sadly, I'm not surprised. The price of a new medium home is $312,800. Dear Reader, to qualify for a mortgage with that price, your household must make at least $6,000 per week. I can't make that much in a month! But, hey! Look at the bright side! That sale price is actually down 4.5% from a year ago and interest rates are lower.
By the way, July sales of existing homes rose by 2.5%. This was the first up-tick in a year and a half. In addition, people were refinancing which is one good effect from low interest rates. Maybe, they will use it to take a trip? Here is a suggestion:
First Spaceport
You read it right. Virgin Galactic is opening the first spaceport. You can relax in this New Mexico facility. Sit in the lounge and watch the big bird fly your fellow tourists into a low orbit space flight as you wait for your turn. You won't see anyone from our blog there, but good luck.
Inverted Yield
The global community keeps pushing negative yield bonds. If you took out one of these notes and you planned to take up the previous piece about a space flight, well, when you return from orbit, you will have less money than before you took off. Think how crazy this "Junk" really is: You can purchase a 2-year bond and receive more interest than a 10-year note. No wonder recessions follow inverted yields. This is whacky math! The end is near...
Some Positive News...
Gold exploded last Friday to close above $1526 which is three dollars more than JFL said for gold to move to a new Fibonacci sequence. The next level is $1576. I would think that gold will take a pause when it reaches that projection. It could regress a little, but more likely just consolidate. After this period look for gold to rise to $1708. Yay! Go! Make some money and buy American!
God is great!
And He works in small ways. Consider a recent Ural Airlines flight. The Russian jet ran into a flock of birds which killed the engines. The pilot remained calm as he located a cornfield. He landed in it. Everyone survived. Praise the Lord!
Jim Morrison of the Doors used the words in a hit song. You may have seen a ding-dong holding the words on a street corner sign, but sadly, it is really here.
Scientist have discovered that rainwater now contains plastic residue. This means plastic will be in our crops, drinking water and consumed by our livestock in grass and feed. It will run within our veins until it causes a blockage and we DIE!
This could produce a cancerous plague like the Black Plague that hit Europe in the Middle Ages. I have a partial answer to save fresh water, but mankind will need a communal research team to find a way to sanitize rainwater to make it safe again.
This sad report makes everything else pall in comparison. Is it not said, "Waste not, want not?" Protect His earth!
American Ways Are Also Dying
It seems like bad news follows more bad news. A consumer report says that one-fourth of all US malls are already gone along with 500 department stores that shuttered their doors for good. Remember those old fake ads in your local newspaper saying, "Going out of business! Everything 75% off!" Well, now they are for real. The outlook is worse. Amazon controls 50% of all online shopping. Keep in mind that the US consumer accounts for 70% of the economy. The US consumer is changing its preference. For the retail survivors they will need to expand their e-commerce and yet, somehow keep the live store experience one that consumers will cherish.
Sebastian asks, "Where will all those lost jobs find new employment?" Speaking of employment, the latest revision by the Bureau of Labor Statistics says that, are you ready for this, 501,000 reported jobs were miscalculated. The bureau was off by 501,000. Nothing like appointing your own people to make you look good with false reports.
New Home sales...
plunged in July by 12.8%. This leads to a yearly projection of 635K units. That figure is pathetic! To put that number in perspective, consider that during the 80s and 90s in Orlando, Florida, which is a small city, that metropolitan sold more than the projected total for this year. Sadly, I'm not surprised. The price of a new medium home is $312,800. Dear Reader, to qualify for a mortgage with that price, your household must make at least $6,000 per week. I can't make that much in a month! But, hey! Look at the bright side! That sale price is actually down 4.5% from a year ago and interest rates are lower.
By the way, July sales of existing homes rose by 2.5%. This was the first up-tick in a year and a half. In addition, people were refinancing which is one good effect from low interest rates. Maybe, they will use it to take a trip? Here is a suggestion:
First Spaceport
You read it right. Virgin Galactic is opening the first spaceport. You can relax in this New Mexico facility. Sit in the lounge and watch the big bird fly your fellow tourists into a low orbit space flight as you wait for your turn. You won't see anyone from our blog there, but good luck.
Inverted Yield
The global community keeps pushing negative yield bonds. If you took out one of these notes and you planned to take up the previous piece about a space flight, well, when you return from orbit, you will have less money than before you took off. Think how crazy this "Junk" really is: You can purchase a 2-year bond and receive more interest than a 10-year note. No wonder recessions follow inverted yields. This is whacky math! The end is near...
Some Positive News...
Gold exploded last Friday to close above $1526 which is three dollars more than JFL said for gold to move to a new Fibonacci sequence. The next level is $1576. I would think that gold will take a pause when it reaches that projection. It could regress a little, but more likely just consolidate. After this period look for gold to rise to $1708. Yay! Go! Make some money and buy American!
God is great!
And He works in small ways. Consider a recent Ural Airlines flight. The Russian jet ran into a flock of birds which killed the engines. The pilot remained calm as he located a cornfield. He landed in it. Everyone survived. Praise the Lord!
Wednesday, August 21, 2019
What Happened To Us?
I asked this question to myself when I saw a stat concerning communication among our youth. It is no big secret that social media is a phenomenon among the young in our society. However, my internals immediately connected many other aspects to the question: mass shootings, increase in gender confusion, fraud by CEOs in corporate workplace, the Fed pushing bonds to negative yields, immigration, people like Jeffery Epstein and the proliferation of pedophiles amongst us and does anyone speak the truth?
If I really contemplated, the questions alone would be too long for this piece nevermind the answers and the intent of the original question. What to do?
Four Signs
I am not qualified to analysis these terrible outcomes in society. I did not become a professional student in the school system to achieve a PhD. in psyche and then, offer advice when that person lacks real integrated social experience. I do have that. I offer this to you for you to share with someone who might display one or more of these signs. One cure is interaction with other humans who care enough to offer help. The Beatles had it right, "Love, love, ...all you need is love..."
a) Mental illness: This is hard to classify, but outbursts beyond a normal setting is a clear sign that this person has some built in problems that are mustering below the surface.
b) Substance abuse: People think that they are so special that taking only one pill, two beers, two shots, whatever won't effect them. This is you being blind to self. If you find yourself needing and taking more than two of anything, including a joint, that is substance abuse! It leads to decay in your body, mind and soul. Get some help!
c) Excess stress: Everyone has problems. You cannot let it consume you to boil over into rage. Sadly, we all feel this anger while driving. You stop at the light. The light changes to green, but the guy in front of you does not move. You beep your horn. He gets out and comes angrily toward you. You need to do or say something to dissolve the situation before it escalates and the both of you are on the 6:00 o'clock news. Give him a way out like, "Sorry, I thought that you dozed off." Maybe the person is wearing a Yankee hat, play off it, "My bad. I thought you were a Red Sox." Just keep reminding yourself that all things pass. The car will move, eventually. There are other situations, but you need to find a new environment, if possible.
Other choices is try to find new friends. They may help you with new employment. Find an outlet to focus your time and maybe lead to a new beginning, a new you. There are countless tales of people working alone or with people of similar interests in garages to escape there old life and form a new one. Don't fall for the trap of an escape through a bottle or pill.
d) No way out: If every time you think of a resolution and you come back to, "No way out!" You are doing what Einstein called, "Insanity. Doing the same think over and over and seeking a different outcome." Get out of your comfort zone. Seek new venues. Try something different. Go to another part of town. Have an epiphany like George Costanza on Seinfeld, "If everything that I think to do was wrong, then the opposite would be right." Try the opposite.
Epidemic of loneliness
I hate to think to much on such a sad topic, but I believe emptiness is a root cause in mass shootings. People, find a release, develop yourself, grow some love. It is not in texting. Go out and see your friends and social buddies, face-to-face. Man is a social animal. If our young people (ages 13-17) continue in their path, society will fall apart. Consider these results from this questions, "How do couples meet?" Keep in mind that today kids use gadgets like the I-phone and tablet to connect with each other. This is the change. Compare the recent trend from just 1995 to 2017 with interaction. 1995 2017
*Online 2% 39%
*In a bar/restaurant 19% 27%
*Though friends 33% 20%
*Through neighbors 8% 3%
*Through work 19% 11% *Through family 15% 7%
*Through school(up to grade 16) 10% 5%
*From grade 16 and on 9% 4%
*Through church 8% 3%
Do you see the problem? The young today generally meet online. We already know that something is wrong within our society with the boomer generation onward. Divorce has wrecked around 50% of marriages, but real meeting as opposed to online is a much stronger connection. The loneliness of people in society is only allowing someone to make a buck with match sites. Dear Reader, I wish the best and there will be many online couples who will be happily ever after, but bye and large, they will fail. E-Harmony says that in the future 70% of us will meet online. I rather be blinded by the girl in the front row, across from me on the bus, sitting at the bar or splashing on the beach, but, hey, that is just me. All the best 'cause Love is the answer.
If I really contemplated, the questions alone would be too long for this piece nevermind the answers and the intent of the original question. What to do?
Four Signs
I am not qualified to analysis these terrible outcomes in society. I did not become a professional student in the school system to achieve a PhD. in psyche and then, offer advice when that person lacks real integrated social experience. I do have that. I offer this to you for you to share with someone who might display one or more of these signs. One cure is interaction with other humans who care enough to offer help. The Beatles had it right, "Love, love, ...all you need is love..."
a) Mental illness: This is hard to classify, but outbursts beyond a normal setting is a clear sign that this person has some built in problems that are mustering below the surface.
b) Substance abuse: People think that they are so special that taking only one pill, two beers, two shots, whatever won't effect them. This is you being blind to self. If you find yourself needing and taking more than two of anything, including a joint, that is substance abuse! It leads to decay in your body, mind and soul. Get some help!
c) Excess stress: Everyone has problems. You cannot let it consume you to boil over into rage. Sadly, we all feel this anger while driving. You stop at the light. The light changes to green, but the guy in front of you does not move. You beep your horn. He gets out and comes angrily toward you. You need to do or say something to dissolve the situation before it escalates and the both of you are on the 6:00 o'clock news. Give him a way out like, "Sorry, I thought that you dozed off." Maybe the person is wearing a Yankee hat, play off it, "My bad. I thought you were a Red Sox." Just keep reminding yourself that all things pass. The car will move, eventually. There are other situations, but you need to find a new environment, if possible.
Other choices is try to find new friends. They may help you with new employment. Find an outlet to focus your time and maybe lead to a new beginning, a new you. There are countless tales of people working alone or with people of similar interests in garages to escape there old life and form a new one. Don't fall for the trap of an escape through a bottle or pill.
d) No way out: If every time you think of a resolution and you come back to, "No way out!" You are doing what Einstein called, "Insanity. Doing the same think over and over and seeking a different outcome." Get out of your comfort zone. Seek new venues. Try something different. Go to another part of town. Have an epiphany like George Costanza on Seinfeld, "If everything that I think to do was wrong, then the opposite would be right." Try the opposite.
Epidemic of loneliness
I hate to think to much on such a sad topic, but I believe emptiness is a root cause in mass shootings. People, find a release, develop yourself, grow some love. It is not in texting. Go out and see your friends and social buddies, face-to-face. Man is a social animal. If our young people (ages 13-17) continue in their path, society will fall apart. Consider these results from this questions, "How do couples meet?" Keep in mind that today kids use gadgets like the I-phone and tablet to connect with each other. This is the change. Compare the recent trend from just 1995 to 2017 with interaction. 1995 2017
*Online 2% 39%
*In a bar/restaurant 19% 27%
*Though friends 33% 20%
*Through neighbors 8% 3%
*Through work 19% 11% *Through family 15% 7%
*Through school(up to grade 16) 10% 5%
*From grade 16 and on 9% 4%
*Through church 8% 3%
Do you see the problem? The young today generally meet online. We already know that something is wrong within our society with the boomer generation onward. Divorce has wrecked around 50% of marriages, but real meeting as opposed to online is a much stronger connection. The loneliness of people in society is only allowing someone to make a buck with match sites. Dear Reader, I wish the best and there will be many online couples who will be happily ever after, but bye and large, they will fail. E-Harmony says that in the future 70% of us will meet online. I rather be blinded by the girl in the front row, across from me on the bus, sitting at the bar or splashing on the beach, but, hey, that is just me. All the best 'cause Love is the answer.
Wednesday, August 14, 2019
It Already Happened
I began writing this piece on Saturday the 3rd of August. It was a "gut" feeling from the recent volatility that I saw in the market. It happened in the first week.
Rich Santelli famously says, "Every boat in the bottom of the ocean had a chart room." I guess he is a fundamentalist? I, as you may know, am a hybrid. I use technical and fundamental.
The technical saw a bigger downturn coming. The fundamentals got worse. There is no trade deal with China and none on the horizon. There is scheduled talks for September, but talk is cheap. My readers know my feeling on the matter. End any dealings with China. They are thieves, thugs and liars. Let me make a disclaimer. It is not the Chinese people, but their government. Some foreign nations dislike the US. They only deal with the CIA who are the proverbial "ugly American."
There is a big world out there. We can trade with many other nations. The Fed cut interest rates due to the known of a perceived global slowdown to which could affect the US economy. The real unknown is the failure of fiat money. Currently, there are $13 trillion in bonds in the world. These bonds are saying that your money is worth less each day and to prove it, we will pay you less than your purchase price at the end-term of the bond. As a result, we have inverted yields. This is a huge, red flag. In addition, we have the usual suspects like Brexit, debt of Italy, Spain and Greece. So, my stomach turned, but I need one more conclusive signal other than the big down day.
What We Know and Don't Know
There are always factual things that occur behind closed doors. For example, the Fed realizes that the US national debt will be unserviceable with normalized interest rates. This is not stated as a reason for rate cuts, but it is in their thinking. So, I said to my analytical side, price action in the market is a truth. If the market has at least one down day of 250 or more points, this will confirm the market is ready to rollover. It will at minimum test the December lows.
We Had It!
It happened the first week of the month. Now, consider that the market is at high evaluations. Nothing is cheap except commodities, however gold is changing that perception. Dear Reader, you don't buy gold every day or maybe ever, but you do need gasoline. The price is down which reflects a high consumer confidence. This gives truth to the lie of the Fed who says that inflation has not reached their 2% threshold. Let me pause for a moment. I'm not switching gears. This is just a reminder that the Fed does not include food or housing in their formula. Keep that phony 2% in mind when your rental lease is up. You won't find one landlord anywhere in America who says, "Inflation is under 2%. Therefore, I will only raise your rent 1%." Ha!
Other Voices
Any time that someone mentions an indicator that they use (bear) like the depressed price of commodities, another voice (bull) says with a matter-of-fact answer, it is a result of global slowing. It could change overnight. How about another conversation? The bear says the banks are lagging the market. The bull answers this is due to the low interest rate environment. Sebastian says, "The inverted yield never fails to call a problem." The bulls say that this indicator doesn't matter anymore.
You can go back-and-forth, but this is reality. In less than a week after the Fed cut interest rates, the world followed suit. The playbook of currency manipulation is front and center. It is led by China (Do I call a spade a spade?" See above) The Fed action has reverberated around the world and I expect more currency moves. This tit-for-tat, childish economic formula will reveal corporate debt in other nations that is hidden in foreign borrowing. This could effect derivatives and like Warren Buffet once called them, "Weapons of mass financial destruction." That was a time when he spoke the truth. You cannot trust him anymore. Anyway, this currency devaluations could trigger the derivative market and then as they say on Arthur Ave, "Forget about it!"
Rich Santelli famously says, "Every boat in the bottom of the ocean had a chart room." I guess he is a fundamentalist? I, as you may know, am a hybrid. I use technical and fundamental.
The technical saw a bigger downturn coming. The fundamentals got worse. There is no trade deal with China and none on the horizon. There is scheduled talks for September, but talk is cheap. My readers know my feeling on the matter. End any dealings with China. They are thieves, thugs and liars. Let me make a disclaimer. It is not the Chinese people, but their government. Some foreign nations dislike the US. They only deal with the CIA who are the proverbial "ugly American."
There is a big world out there. We can trade with many other nations. The Fed cut interest rates due to the known of a perceived global slowdown to which could affect the US economy. The real unknown is the failure of fiat money. Currently, there are $13 trillion in bonds in the world. These bonds are saying that your money is worth less each day and to prove it, we will pay you less than your purchase price at the end-term of the bond. As a result, we have inverted yields. This is a huge, red flag. In addition, we have the usual suspects like Brexit, debt of Italy, Spain and Greece. So, my stomach turned, but I need one more conclusive signal other than the big down day.
What We Know and Don't Know
There are always factual things that occur behind closed doors. For example, the Fed realizes that the US national debt will be unserviceable with normalized interest rates. This is not stated as a reason for rate cuts, but it is in their thinking. So, I said to my analytical side, price action in the market is a truth. If the market has at least one down day of 250 or more points, this will confirm the market is ready to rollover. It will at minimum test the December lows.
We Had It!
It happened the first week of the month. Now, consider that the market is at high evaluations. Nothing is cheap except commodities, however gold is changing that perception. Dear Reader, you don't buy gold every day or maybe ever, but you do need gasoline. The price is down which reflects a high consumer confidence. This gives truth to the lie of the Fed who says that inflation has not reached their 2% threshold. Let me pause for a moment. I'm not switching gears. This is just a reminder that the Fed does not include food or housing in their formula. Keep that phony 2% in mind when your rental lease is up. You won't find one landlord anywhere in America who says, "Inflation is under 2%. Therefore, I will only raise your rent 1%." Ha!
Other Voices
Any time that someone mentions an indicator that they use (bear) like the depressed price of commodities, another voice (bull) says with a matter-of-fact answer, it is a result of global slowing. It could change overnight. How about another conversation? The bear says the banks are lagging the market. The bull answers this is due to the low interest rate environment. Sebastian says, "The inverted yield never fails to call a problem." The bulls say that this indicator doesn't matter anymore.
You can go back-and-forth, but this is reality. In less than a week after the Fed cut interest rates, the world followed suit. The playbook of currency manipulation is front and center. It is led by China (Do I call a spade a spade?" See above) The Fed action has reverberated around the world and I expect more currency moves. This tit-for-tat, childish economic formula will reveal corporate debt in other nations that is hidden in foreign borrowing. This could effect derivatives and like Warren Buffet once called them, "Weapons of mass financial destruction." That was a time when he spoke the truth. You cannot trust him anymore. Anyway, this currency devaluations could trigger the derivative market and then as they say on Arthur Ave, "Forget about it!"
Wednesday, August 7, 2019
Another Reason to End the Fed
The sad truth about debates and arguments concerning government is usually that they all end with a governmental choice. Time moves on. Years later, the opposing sides are buried somewhere and the living have to deal with the outcome of their conflict. Does anyone recall those conversations? Does anyone know that the city of Mosul, Iraq sits on the west bank of the Tigris river and the ancient city of Nineveh use to sit on the east bank in the same location? Did they argue about the city name change? This is my point. There was opposition to the idea of creating a central bank in the US.
Fiat v. Gold
The founders went back-and-forth over what currency to establish in our new nation. The compromise was a central bank for one side and a strong currency backed by gold on the other. Cheap money favors borrowers. They already have some wealth, but with cheap money, they could expand and increase their holdings. Read greed. A strong currency protects citizens from inflation. It allows them to save and grow their wealth through time, knowing it has a sound foundation. It retains value. Eventually, the first citizens realized that bankers favored fiat. They did nothing for ordinary people. They voted for officials who ended the central bank.
Didn't end
The debate continued. The banks had the resources to continue the fight. A second central bank was created with a sunset law. By the way this is a great way to pen controversial issues into law. Put a time limit. See how it affects society. Good old, Andrew Jackson ended it. He ran by saying he would end the bank. The opposing party put up a pro-central banker. He lost. This is the voice of America. It gets labeled as "Populism" today. By the way, it was also called populism back in the day.
The story did not end
It laid low. It was discussed behind closed doors. It needed a moment, a crisis. It found the seeds in 1893. The nation had experienced rapid growth. Railroads crisscrossed the country. Manufacturing exploded on the backs of wage earners who were exploited. What developed was overproduction along with excess government spending. This is how it reads in history books. The real sin besides low wages and foreclosing of family farms was the banking institution and the US treasury. When citizens realized that deflationary effects from the civil war was destroying the value of present dollars, the idea of converting silver to dollars would stimulate the economy and help them meet financial obligations, basically the mortgage on the farm. This put a run on banks to redeem dollars with their silver. The banks could not cover and they got government to end the convertibility of silver for dollars. This violated the constitution. In addition, notes were no longer allowed to be used to get gold. The government did not have enough gold on hand to redeem. Together, this led to a panic, a run on banks. This led to the recession of 1893. Five hundred banks failed and citizens lost their entire life savings. There was no FDIC.
Enter 1907
This depression was caused by greed. Some ding-dong decided that he could manipulate the stock market. He got a bank to back him up. He tried to corner copper through a copper company. He failed, but he crushed the stock market and began a run on banks. Again, banks lacked enough funds to meet withdrawals. The liquidity problem was solved by John Pierpont Morgan who provided funds that ended the bank runs. Behind the scenes he got the government to give him US Steel through an acquisition. Again, banks, government and corruption are never blamed in history books. However, this time the elite bankers used the concept of a strong central fund. It was central to their argument. They said it was the source to end the problem of bank runs. They lobbied (read bought politicians) to accept their view. Another phony was in the White House. President Wilson joined their side. Just before Christmas in 1913 the devils got their way. Wilson signed the act to establish the Federal Reserve. This was even better for banking. This central bank is not part of the government. Fiat money was coming. Again, the constitution was violated, but not in so many words but more in direction. Gold would be out and fiat in. The original argument for cheap money which favors spenders and the rich over sound money which favors citizens and savers. This is the Anopaia Path. It kills the American Dream. This is the road where we find ourselves today.
Where it leads
The Fed just cut interest rates in an economy that is growing with low unemployment. If you recall their lies and BS, they stated that they would seek to normalize interest rates. They could not even get the 10-year rate to 3.75%. They realized that all the cheap money that they had provided had grown exponentially. Government debt would soon not be serviceable. Japan knows this as they use negative money to maintain face. The EU can read the tea leaves. They will play manipulation all the way down to zero. Switzerland is already there. Negative rates means that your purchase price will lose value over the life of the bond. This asset declines in value like a new car that you drive off the lot. The charts say that our 10-year note will fall to 1.31%.
Dear Reader, the government is saying that you give them your present money and in 10 years they will give you 1.31% profit. Keep that in mind when your rental lease is up and the landlord raises your rent 5% or your insurance company or your medical or gasoline, food, etc.
If I'm right and the ten year falls to test the lows, the problem could get worse. Japan, China, the EU all will manipulate their rates to maintain their export levels. This is a race to zero which is actually the real value of paper. This could cause the Fed to continue lowering interest rates and all the while, never admitting failure. It will be too late after a currency crisis to offer the opposing side to fiat and sound money that favors savers and ordinary citizens. We will all suffer. End the Fed!
Fiat v. Gold
The founders went back-and-forth over what currency to establish in our new nation. The compromise was a central bank for one side and a strong currency backed by gold on the other. Cheap money favors borrowers. They already have some wealth, but with cheap money, they could expand and increase their holdings. Read greed. A strong currency protects citizens from inflation. It allows them to save and grow their wealth through time, knowing it has a sound foundation. It retains value. Eventually, the first citizens realized that bankers favored fiat. They did nothing for ordinary people. They voted for officials who ended the central bank.
Didn't end
The debate continued. The banks had the resources to continue the fight. A second central bank was created with a sunset law. By the way this is a great way to pen controversial issues into law. Put a time limit. See how it affects society. Good old, Andrew Jackson ended it. He ran by saying he would end the bank. The opposing party put up a pro-central banker. He lost. This is the voice of America. It gets labeled as "Populism" today. By the way, it was also called populism back in the day.
The story did not end
It laid low. It was discussed behind closed doors. It needed a moment, a crisis. It found the seeds in 1893. The nation had experienced rapid growth. Railroads crisscrossed the country. Manufacturing exploded on the backs of wage earners who were exploited. What developed was overproduction along with excess government spending. This is how it reads in history books. The real sin besides low wages and foreclosing of family farms was the banking institution and the US treasury. When citizens realized that deflationary effects from the civil war was destroying the value of present dollars, the idea of converting silver to dollars would stimulate the economy and help them meet financial obligations, basically the mortgage on the farm. This put a run on banks to redeem dollars with their silver. The banks could not cover and they got government to end the convertibility of silver for dollars. This violated the constitution. In addition, notes were no longer allowed to be used to get gold. The government did not have enough gold on hand to redeem. Together, this led to a panic, a run on banks. This led to the recession of 1893. Five hundred banks failed and citizens lost their entire life savings. There was no FDIC.
Enter 1907
This depression was caused by greed. Some ding-dong decided that he could manipulate the stock market. He got a bank to back him up. He tried to corner copper through a copper company. He failed, but he crushed the stock market and began a run on banks. Again, banks lacked enough funds to meet withdrawals. The liquidity problem was solved by John Pierpont Morgan who provided funds that ended the bank runs. Behind the scenes he got the government to give him US Steel through an acquisition. Again, banks, government and corruption are never blamed in history books. However, this time the elite bankers used the concept of a strong central fund. It was central to their argument. They said it was the source to end the problem of bank runs. They lobbied (read bought politicians) to accept their view. Another phony was in the White House. President Wilson joined their side. Just before Christmas in 1913 the devils got their way. Wilson signed the act to establish the Federal Reserve. This was even better for banking. This central bank is not part of the government. Fiat money was coming. Again, the constitution was violated, but not in so many words but more in direction. Gold would be out and fiat in. The original argument for cheap money which favors spenders and the rich over sound money which favors citizens and savers. This is the Anopaia Path. It kills the American Dream. This is the road where we find ourselves today.
Where it leads
The Fed just cut interest rates in an economy that is growing with low unemployment. If you recall their lies and BS, they stated that they would seek to normalize interest rates. They could not even get the 10-year rate to 3.75%. They realized that all the cheap money that they had provided had grown exponentially. Government debt would soon not be serviceable. Japan knows this as they use negative money to maintain face. The EU can read the tea leaves. They will play manipulation all the way down to zero. Switzerland is already there. Negative rates means that your purchase price will lose value over the life of the bond. This asset declines in value like a new car that you drive off the lot. The charts say that our 10-year note will fall to 1.31%.
Dear Reader, the government is saying that you give them your present money and in 10 years they will give you 1.31% profit. Keep that in mind when your rental lease is up and the landlord raises your rent 5% or your insurance company or your medical or gasoline, food, etc.
If I'm right and the ten year falls to test the lows, the problem could get worse. Japan, China, the EU all will manipulate their rates to maintain their export levels. This is a race to zero which is actually the real value of paper. This could cause the Fed to continue lowering interest rates and all the while, never admitting failure. It will be too late after a currency crisis to offer the opposing side to fiat and sound money that favors savers and ordinary citizens. We will all suffer. End the Fed!
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