Physical Money vs. Cashless and Digital

Whomever wins the election is going to face a serious currency crisis during their term in office. This will emerge after another economic crisis: retail bankruptcies. The excess money printing by the Federal Reserve due to the pandemic is causing fears for investors, whether individuals or nations with our bonds and holders of dollars. The only reason that "King Dollar" has not declined severely lays in the point that all central banks have been utilizing the printing press. When the pandemic ceases to be a civil and economic problem, the data on the amount of US dollars that were printed will be alarming. By the way, we, at Evolution are predicting the virus begins to fade by the February-March 2021 timeline.  

King Dollar...

was as high as 104 in May of this year. For those of you that do not keep track of the purchasing power of the dollar, this would be a good time to broaden your horizons. It settled at 94.04 last Friday. It has been range bound since it fell sharply in June. At the same time, competing currencies like the Euro, Yen and Pound have all been gaining strength. In our economy which is serviced orientated, a strong dollar keeps things like oil, utilities and food lower in costs. A weak dollar will be noticed immediately, as the price of those items will rise dramatically. The charts indicate that the dollar will eventually fall below 91. Then, it will form a new range from 87 to 92. The crises will arise as other nations will seek to dethrone the dollar as the world's reserve currency. We, at Evolution see an international compromise engineered by the IMF. It will be a power grab by the agency, just like the recent power grab by our central bank, the Federal Reserve. They will devise a basket of currencies that will form the reserve for trading. It is a step for China to be declared the new king of currencies. The future is no brave new world. 

Anyway, the aspects of this outlook will generate the talk in our media about turning our economy into a cashless society. They already have one in Sweden. The writing on the subway walls all point towards this transformation. We say this will be another nail in the coffin of US individuality and our free, capitalist economy. As long as you have money in your pocket, you cannot be arrested for vagrancy. The idiot millennium generation does not think about repercussions of this change. They only see a quicker service by taping their iPhone to pay a bill. The Fed sees power to know your every movement with money. They can follow the trail that you leave in digital dollars. If that was not scary enough, this millennium generation had better read, "1984." Advocates will cite the use during the pandemic and as a result, the growing use even after the virus fades. A survey by Trans Credit Union already points to this conclusion. Yeah, well, this is how we see value in actually using cash in a transaction.

* Credit cards mean less profits for any business doing business.                                                                * Society gets more divided as not everyone has good credit to use credit cards.                                        * Privacy is lost in many, many ways and as data is collected, even newer ways will result.                      * You are open to theft from hackers.                                                                                                          * If there is a power outage, bank holiday or similar, you will suffer hunger and other problems.              * You are tempted to buy and pay later. It is like eating too much, you get fat and medically sick.            * Banks wait to charge you late fees, any kind of fees. You get yourself in debt.                                        * If you make late payments, banks can raise your interest costs. Read the fine print!                                * You forget how to budget. Freedom of buying with no added concerns like monthly checks to cover        bills, a need for stamps or time on the internet to do the bookwork.                                                        * Most important! You forget how much and how hard it is to make "real money." And if some concern      is going out of business, having cash in your pocket allows you to get a great deal as opposed to              having your transaction declined because you have reached your credit max level.                                *  Having a dollar in your pocket means that you will never go hungry. Food for thought. Peace. 

Odds and Ends: October 2020

Within a week of this post, America should know who will reside as the president for the next four years. I say "should" because this election won't just include the voter's choice. It will be inundated by lawyers. Due to the pandemic and social distancing, voting locations may not be open long enough to register every vote. Then, there is the reduction of voting locations. This is suppression to the right of voting. In some situations, this reduction maybe due to the virus. Nevertheless, litigation will come about for these and other restrictions. The vote should be close. This too will allow lawyers to call for a recount. All in all, the 2020 presidential election will be marred with problems. 

Two liars:

Here, at Evolution, we do not care who eventually gets elected. We are on record as saying that both political parties are corrupt. All one had to do was watch the last presidential debate to see through the so-called debate. Candidate Biden stated that he would declare the 11 million illegal immigrants, citizens. Nothing like buying the Hispanic vote. Then, he said he would raise the minimum wage to $15. Again, he is seeking to buy votes. President Trump was so on the attack that this "inflation effect" was not addressed. The only positive that Biden had was that he would push for alternative energy.  

President Trump was a one pony theme. He kept harping on Biden's ideas. If he had these points, why didn't he present them while he was in office? Trump made points in saying, "All talk, no action!" As president, Trump showed inconsistent leadership. He says one thing and the next day, rebuffs what he declared as fact. He has no vision other than throwing money at something. His policies are crushing our currency. There was a study by the St. Louis Fed back in 1980s that showed it takes 12 quarters in lag time to reflect changes in money supply. Our Economic Evangelist believes that sometime in 2022, our dollar will fall in value. This will cause inflation and other economic hardships. The only positive in the four years of Trump was in his calling out of China. However, if he had real courage and convictions, he would have slapped tariffs on all Chinese imports. He only displayed a token response. This was to appease voters and companies seeking relief. He has no real convictions.

I could go on-and-on about the phoniness of both parties: Trump with hotels in Moscow. Biden's son in deals with Ukraine and China. This is why we do not vote. If one votes for either candidate, you are validating the system with just two political parties. The system itself is fine, but the process is corrupt. Buying influence gets government action not true needs and issues. More and more fellow citizens are realizing this point. There are more Independents than either Democrats or Republicans. The seeds are being sowed for the...

Liberty Party

At Evolution, we advocate a new political party, the Liberty Party. The cornerstone is this: protect American workers which includes protectionism. Use policies that work under our founders believe to "promote the general welfare." It also means dropping out of international agencies like the WTO. The other part of the platform is to end military entanglements. At present, our warmongers at the Pentagon display their idiocy. Case in point. After WWI, Billy Mitchell went to the navy with the idea for an aircraft carrier. He was labeled an idiot by them. Today, we are still building aircraft carriers that cost in the billions. They are obsolete. A smart bomb can find and sink them with lives, jets and costs beyond imagination. Winston Churchill said it best, "You can always count on America to do the right thing, after they tried everything else." Nothing has changed since his observation. Just recap the virus actions and inactions. Our unpublished book addresses this and puts forth other ideas to really make America great again.

Farm to Fork...

initiatives are being pushed by the EU. The EU wants less pesticides and antibodies in their food chain. We like this idea. The problem will be rising food costs and lower yield. This is vital since populations keep growing. US agriculture secretary, Sonny Perdue says, "He sees not only higher prices, but protectionism." Nothing like a bought and paid shill. The EU sees another plus in climate change. The real culprit is farm lobbyists who pushed for GMOs and other artificial ingredients. This quick turnaround can shock the market, but the EU is correct to start and we should do the same. 

Fed's New Power Grab

These guys are smart. The whole agency started just before Christmas. People have their attention on other things. Today, our attention is on the virus, election and jobs. In the shadow, these crooks operate. The Fed says that the bank clearing system to which they originally pushed (ACH), is too slow. They want to establish a new clearing system under them called, "Fed Now." They also complain about citizens saving money in their homes. They call it hoarding of coins and dollars. This is probably a hidden jab at people who seek our previous money that had silver or actual goin coins. In any event, they call savers, hoarders. They have an answer. Now, you can get instantaneous checks like stimulus from them, immediately. This money will be digitized. The Fed can track the money and of course, you. They also will seek to open this "free" service to the 9 million citizens who lack a bank account. These are also people who carry money around with them and at home. By the way, this is another violation of the constitution. The first was in creating the Federal Reserve to which favored fiat money. Fiat money is the violation of the constitution. The founders also stated that Congress appropriate all monetary functions. This is the new violation of the constitution. Funny, then again, these crooks never mentioned the unknown amount of dollars being held by foreigners. Dear Reader, consider this example. When Brazil trades with Argentina, they do it in dollars. This is the true sign that the Fed has lost control of the currency. This is only to control you as the other amount of dollars out there is unknowable. Another reason to End the Fed!

Azure Cloud

the system not the color of the sky. It is poised to grow as Microsoft has made a deal with Space X. They will cover the globe.

Nuclear Fusion...

might not only be possible, but it could be coming soon, according to scientists and researchers. This is another worry for big oil and utility companies. 

Interest Rates...

are showing signs of life. Money printing is inflationary. The rates may have a lid on them in the near-term, but the sign of change is in the air like the comet that recently passed over the sky.

Do You Remember August 2019?

Question of the day: Why would anyone purchase a 10-year Treasury when the yield on the two-year is higher?

When you digest the question and answer, you will be transported back to August 2019 when the inverted yield appeared. It is defined by having the 10-year Treasury rate falling below the 2-year Treasury rate. The talk at the time was the presence of this inversion. As an indicator of the future of our economy, it has never been proved wrong. It is the most accurate indicator of a looming recession. 

When you read more into this indicator, you realized that it is a very early call as to what will happen with the economy. If you review the last four times that the inverted yield appeared, it took generally more than a year to fulfillment. Nevertheless, the recession did take place. I bring this to your attention as recent economic reports are all negative. The timeline says we are in the fourteen month. Even if nothing worse happens to the economy, the inverted yield says that a recession is coming. It will probably arrive (average time) by the end of March 2021. If you consider some points that I have gathered, this indicator will keep its title has one that has never failed in its call.

Quick Recap

The Federal Reserve tries to quickly dissipate any presence of an inverted yield. They use their printing and buying power to eliminate its presence from society and the market. This is how they operate with their machinations to engineer the economy. Just last week, Fed governor, Randal Quarles stated that the Fed should make new rules to prevent runs on money market funds. Hedge funds and banks were seeking a higher yield due to the Fed's policy of low-rate yield returns on money. They began taking money out of circulation in the money market funds because it no longer gave them any return. These runs caused a chain effect within the market to which the Fed will seek to impose new rules to control it. This small sign is also a "tell" in poker terms. The Fed is printing so much money that it is losing control of the currency. The tell has been broadcasted in the past with fiat currencies that were about to enter hyperinflation. Anyway, the last time the inverted yield appeared was in... 

2005

It took another 16 to 22 months to form the market top. Then, we had the worst recession ever. It lasted two years.

2000

The market peak came in two months. Then, we had a short recession.

1998

The market kept rising for another 21 months. Then, we had another short recession.

1988-89

It took the market another 20 months to peak, Then, we had another short recession.

Present Trends

Even before the pandemic appeared, many segments of our economy were in trouble. Restaurants and retail were constantly seeking refinancing. They kept cutting costs as best as they could. They announced store closings in record fashion. If you recall from our previous pieces, the two industries had announce 8,200 store closings before the pandemic. This number will double due to the virus.

The three big airline carriers, Delta, United and American all showed in excess of $2 billion in losses for the last quarter. Keep in mind that these carriers have all entered bankruptcy before and it is looming larger in the near-term. The airline industry employs one in fourteen workers with quality wages. This news is not good for our shrinking middle-class.    

There are over 3,500 US firms that are suing the government over president Trump's tariff policy, especially with China. They all claim that they are dying. There cries are questionable, however reports of Americans not paying rent (8-million) or mortgages (2-million) are believable. Together, all of the above will put pressure on government to enact another stimulus plan to which puts the US deeper in debt. This leads to concerns on a international level about our reserve currency status. I cannot say that the inverted yield saw all these developments, but its forecast looks to be correct. 

Social Security Reflects the Dollar

 -  "In all things, moderation."

There are many references to the above words of wisdom. Some say it is attributed to Aristotle. Two Roman playwrights use the concept. Even in the short history of the US, wise men like Ralph Waldo Emerson have stated the expression. We, at Evolution love it. We believe it is a tautology. If you eat too much, you become fat and obese. You will suffer with diabetes and die! If you drink too much, you vomit. You slowly destroy your liver. You will suffer and die! 

At the moment, the US Federal Reserve is printing money in an excessive fashion. This will slowly kill the purchasing value of the dollar. People will suffer economically. Eventually, the dollar will lose its reserve status. When this happens, inflation will destroy the dollar. It will die!

Just follow the progression of the madness of the Federal Reserve since its inception. A shout out to Doug Casey for this data. Note, that during its early years, it kept a lower profile as it still had opposition in Congress. Today, they both sleep in the same bed.

It took 80-years to print and reach $1 trillion (1913-1993). This wave of money takes time to digest.      It took just 18-years to reach its $2 trillion (1994-2011). Running deficits in trade, the world uses $s.    It took just 5-years to hit $3 trillion (2012-2016). Excess dollars has less effect in stimulus.                    It took just 4-years to add one more. $4 trillion (2017-2020). Declining impact of stimulus dollars.          Finally, the Fed reaches $5 trillion in only four months (Feb.2020-May 2020). World has excessive dollars. It follows the above words of wisdom and rules of economics. When you expand the money supply, you make money have less and less an impact and value. The economist, Ludwig Von Mises predicted central banks would do this with fiat money. The process destroys the currency and then, the confidence of the nation. This makes it worthless in value.  

Election Year

The candidates make many promises. Sometimes, they do things that they did not even think about. Social Security was actually started as a pension plan by the German chancellor, Bismarck. In time, it came to be believed that this idea was attributed to a new philosophy known as "Socialism." 

The problem with critics is that they label things rather than thinking if an idea is good or bad. This is a great idea, however it it still opposed by many. They have no compassion. Anyway,

FDR used the concept after his first term. He applied the principle to US politics. He was opposed by the Republicans. You won't find one GOP who opposes it today. There are still critics who say it is nothing more than a Ponzi scheme. They say it will run out of money. These are the same people who opposed it when the idea was introduced. They hide under shills. It will not run out of money and it is not a true Ponzi con. It is a tax that US workers pay into for present users. In time, they will reap the benefits. Yes, there will be periods of shortfalls due to demographics, however the plan works. The real problem is politicians raid it for many other uses. There is actually no money in the system. The government spent the revenues of social security on other bills. The system has IOUs from the government. The problem is the government spends too much and the Federal Reserve prints too much. Their actions are reflected in the purchasing power of the dollar through social security over the years. This is the ultimate signal for our government to end reckless spending. They should start by cutting the military budget in half. I will start with 1950. Our nation started to get too involved with affairs of foreign nations. This is one of the dangers that our founders discussed and agreed, it is not prudent.

The military machine that saw so much money from WWII wanted to keep its hold on power and money. They are not defending our nation, but bankrupting it. I will show the medium check received by recipients and applied to cover shelter with a one bedroom apartment. One other aspect. When the plan began, workers were paying with gold backed dollars. You will see how strong the purchasing power of that dollar. No one is alive to tell us the dangers of the Federal Reserve and excessive government spending. We only have the data.

* 1950: $43.86 = This covered rent!                                                                                                              * 1960: $74.04 = Still enough for a one bedroom rental.                                                                              * 1970: $118. = Check more than doubled in 20-years. Still covered rent.                                                  * 1980: $341. = Check doubles again in just a decade. The increase is needed to cover higher rents.        * 1990: $602.56 = Check almost doubles again. Difficult to find affordable rental, but still possible.        * 2000: $844.48 = You cannot live on this or find a rental this low. You live in your car.                          * 2010: $1175. = This makes you homeless and starving. You no longer can afford a car.                          * 2018: $1461. = Last known stat. System has failed since the 1980s. Non-believers and critics point out that the plan was never intended as a full retirement plan. It is a supplement. We say that the money provided is more than enough, but the reckless Federal Reserve and policing the world has destroyed the purchasing power of "King Dollar." Another reason to End the Fed! & End foreign entanglements!                                                                

Virus Toil Keeps Hitting

 Everyone and every company, whether big or small is feeling the effects of the pandemic in one way or another. The president has to eat his own words about the disease. He repeatedly has said that the corner is turned. A vaccine is eminent. The problem turned up in his internals. Let us hope he recovers and in the cure, a more humane leader emerges... He didn't. He is rolling the political dice with stimulus. He has asked his party leaders not to work with the Democrats until after he wins the election.

With that said, the way that news is being delivered on network television reminds me of the Woodstock period. In those days, the evening news was more instrumental in its reach within our nation. The evening news was our periscope to the nation. The one point that is so similar is this. Today, every report contains a segment on the virus - the number of cases, deaths and related stories. Back in the day, every news cast contained a report on Viet Nam - causalities, deaths (body bags), and related stories. The negativity of this continual onslaught effects you in more ways that is understood. Even if you never get sick physically, your mind is effected. Thus, my opening sentence, "Everyone and every company..." is feeling pain in one way or another. However, since this is a political and economic blog, I turn my attention to what we here at Evolution are seeing.

Segment after segment...

are beginning to feel the economic pressure caused by the virus and the government's response. The stimulus CARES Act gave money to many industries, both small and large. Within this stimulus program, there were many cases of favoritism and fraud. It is not in the realm of this piece to argue about the inequalities of the program. It is about the lingering effects of the disease. The financial aid of the stimulus is over, but the virus has not passed as expected. As the data comes forward, it is like listening to the body count during the Nam days. It will drive the stock market lower. The market will "jump the creek" and pass support levels. How could it not? Consider these trends:

Airline Industry

The four big carriers expect to layoff 150,000 workers. American Airlines announced this week that 19,000 are getting pink slips. United says it will let go 16,000, but it is possible that number could rise to 36,000. Keep in mind that the airline industry employs one in fourteen jobs in the US. Then, there are the related segments of labor like car rentals, cleaning firms that take care of terminals and hotels. We covered that industry in our last article. In general, these are quality jobs and losses here will hurt the already shrinking middle-class.

Oil 

The word is small, but its reach is gigantic. Chemical firms need its energy. Utilities need its gas to make electricity. Plastic cannot be made without it. This hurts the packing industry. The oil industry offers higher pay and there are so many firms in the supply chain that a whole chapter would be needed to explain its real effect. According to the Dallas Federal Reserve Governor, oil companies need crude to sell at $45 and up to keep drilling. Currently, the price fell below $40 and sinking fast. The charts see $28. This is not pretty. It will lead to force mergers as the industry consolidates. It will also flood the bankruptcy courts. Already, two majors, Shell and BP are seeking to sell assets and reshape their firms into alternative energies. This is the world's most important commodity. The virus and government lockdowns has decreased the need for gasoline. With a stay at home an on again, off again response, the use of gasoline has been nullified. This too, will hit the middle-class hard.

Labor in general...

could be viewed in many ways. The difference in unemployment from Sept. 2019 and Sept. 2020 is 186%. A report by Challenger, Gray and Christmas on job losses states that job losses continue to rise. From August to September of this year, the losses roses another 2.6%. They go on to say that 21 million jobs have been lost this year. CNN reports that it will take five years for the US to recover job losses and that another 4 million jobs are lost forever. 

Explain this to me...

837,000 filed unemployment claims last week. The government also states that 661,000 jobs were created last week. Then, they say that unemployment fell to 7.9%. How can you have more people filing for unemployment benefits than people who found work lower the percentage of the unemployed?  Then, there is this alarming tidbit...

179 million...

citizens are at risk this month to have their water and power turned off due to lack of payment. If people cannot afford to cover basic monthly bills like their water and utilities, how can they pay their rent or mortgages? The disease is unseen, but soon its effects will be seen by all. 

Bear Flag Patterns

appear in many of the market leaders like Apple and Microsoft...and then, there is this...

EU versus Brexit, again...

X-Factor

The next is a list of restaurants that are closing their doors. They are mostly chains. The effects of the virus is like an economic cancer that is eroding these firms. Keep in mind that each store that closes multiplies the number of unemployed by X-times.

*Sizzler: six stores closing.  *Dunkin Donuts: 800 have been dunked. *Burger King: hundreds gone. *Pizza Hut: 300.  *Even Starbucks: lost 400.  *McDonald's: Yes, they lost 200.  *Ruby Tuesday: 148  *Souplanation or Sweet Tomatoes: 97 and going to bankruptcy.  *Steak 'n Shake: 69. *Zinburger: 15.    *Le Pain Quotidian: 63. *IHOP: 49.  *Brio Tuscan Grille: 48. *Bar Louie: 38. *Craft Works: 37. *Denny's: 15.  *Taco Cabana: 19.  *Chuck E. Cheese: 34.  *Rubio's Coastal Grill: 12. *Pie Five: 10.      *Specialty Café and Bakery: 50.  *California Pizza Kitchen: several.  *Potbelly: 100 and maybe all.     

Then, there are these firms that are borderline, but heading the wrong way.

*Outback - Applebee's - Checkers and Rally's - Dave and Buster's - TGI Friday - Friendly's - Cosi - Too Jay's - Luby/ Fuddruckers's - Red Robin- Cheesecake Factory (sorry, Penny).

Bankruptcy

*Town Sports -  *Century 21 - *Lord and Taylor -  *Stein Mart -  *Virgin Atlantic -   *Tailored Brands -*Remington -   *Ascena Retail -   *Briggs and Stratton -  *Paper Store -  *New York and Co. -  *Muji -*Brooks Brothers -  *Sur La Table -  *Lucky Brand -  *Aero Mexico - *Wendy's (NPC International) -  *Cirque du Soleil - *GNC -  *24 Hour Fitness -  *Tuesday Morning - *Latam Airline - *Hertz - *Pier 1 *J.C. Penny -  *J. Crew -  *Gold's Gym -  *Neiman Marcus - *Avianca Air -  *Aldo -  *True Religion - *Frontier Communication -  *Speed Cast International -  *Stage Stores -  *Dean and DeLuca -  

Then, there are these firms that are getting closer to a court date.

J. Jill - Sea World - AMC Theatres - Sears and K Mart - Game Stop - Rite Aid -  Party City - and this  one who has been in and out of court, Forever 21. Even state sponsored firms are no longer being supported like Norwegian Air. 

All in all the list grows every month because like rent these firms have loans that need to be paid and they are past delinquent. All of the above is known data with the ongoing knowledge that there is more unknown data to which paints a cold winter that is coming to the US and world economies.

      

                           

  

Odds and Ends: September 2020

Here we are deep into the pandemic, recession and the year. It is now autumn. Have you thought about that? Can you recall all the shills from Wall Street in the media telling you about how you can get rich by buying their stock suggestion back in January? As we have stated in recent pieces, as the data gets collected, analysts will lower their forecasts for GDP and economy in general. We saw the early stages of this trend this past week. Of course, their new, lower call has never within its report, stated an admittance of error.

Even Elon Musk is showing signs of ego and BS. Did he not make bold proclamations about his company, Tesla and their forth coming, Battery Day? It came and went. It produced NOTHING! This is all around us. You get talk about this and that in the media to which leads to EVERYONE asking for something. They all have the ego sickness. They go to bed saying, "Give Me..." They wake up and say, "I Want..."

3,500...or whose America?

is the number of US companies that are suing the government and President Trump over tariffs because their product is made in China. These people are so greedy and unappreciative of America that they offshored their labor to a foreign nation and now, they want relief. Drop dead!...that is my answer to them. And those who used China for a supply line, well, you should have thought about that before you decided to sell a certain product. Pay the tariff!

Not alone

A report by Motley Fool says that 25% of hotels are at risk for foreclosure. Already 23% are delinquent on 30-days on loans. By the way, did you know that this is the highest percentage on record? To put this figure in perspective, only 1.3% were delinquent last year. They too, are seeking help from Congress with lobbyists pushing the HOPE Act. This is more cheap money for wealthy people to stay in business. They will probably get their way. They have leverage and real estate to which has been the best investment in modern history. Nothing like another bailout for the rich. 

More than 8 million renters have not paid rent for August according to the Census Bureau. They have their hand out to the government too. And of course, both presidential candidates offer cookies. The debates are nothing more than shouting matches that place guilt at the other party for any shortcoming within our nation. I wrote that sentence the other day. I watched the first presidential debate last night. It confirmed my original evaluation. The real sad point was that these two men are suppose to be the best. No wonder America is in decline and in turmoil.

Deserving Hand...

A report shows that there are still over 11 million workers who were laid off and their claims are still not processed for benefits to which they are entitled. This huge number is also not reflected into the ranks of the unemployed. Think about that? How does that number effect the total unemployed percentage? Oh, yeah. Disney will add around 30,000 to that number with their announcement of layoffs at their theme parks due to the virus.

Then, there is JP Morgan...

the firm will be fined a whopping $1 billion with a "B." Why, you ask? They are guilty of "Spoofing." Can you guess which industry that they tried to manipulate? We told you in the past. Never trust banks when it comes to money and currency. They sought to "play" the metals market. Once a fiat, always a fiat. They are one of the forces that is causing precious metals to retrace. Don't worry. This is only temporary. 

Ray Dalio...

was in the news. He went on record saying that America needs to find ways to improve social mobility. We agree. It starts with quality jobs. We said it before and we will say it here again, my idea for a water project as a national goal is central to the answer. Ray goes on about the future and the challenge of China. He is correct and he is also right that America needs to create and produce. These two factors are necessary ingredients to produce wealth to which we need to pay our way out of all this excessive debt.

Jumping the creek...

in the stock market refers to a point where a stock skips its resistance point. Look for the market to break its 200-day average. It will jump the creek...on the express elevator - down.

Something else...

This tidbit won't make the news, but it is something that will effect commodity prices in the future. According to a report by Bloomberg, it says that seafarers are in turmoil. Shipping firms seek workers in low-wage nations. Most have little seafaring experience, but a job is the attraction. The workers find out that these firms offer little medical and now with the virus, offer no way to return them to their home port. The report says that 300,000 sailors are being put in this violation. There is an international maritime union that is providing this data. Shipping companies claim that they cannot get replacements due to the virus and lack of air transport. In addition, many ports are closed or due to the virus outbreak on ships (120 total). The ports won't let them enter. These sailors want out, but they are captives at sea. They have long past their time of duty at sea, but they cannot get off the boat or their situation. These sailors are tired and sick. Mishaps happen under those circumstances. Shipping insurance rates will rise along with future shipping costs and thus, inflation to all of us. By the way, Singapore seems to be the only port that helps sailors, especially in today's environment.  

One bit of encouraging news...

Mercedes is rolling out a semi-truck with hydrogen fuel. They say it can cross the entire US on one tank of fuel. Wow! A vehicle that runs on water. Hyde, of the 70s show was right, "It runs on water, man!"...Peace.

 

 

The Demonstrations Have Produced Some Light

People in America forget one of the most important aspects about the US. We are not a homogeneous nation. This is huge! The racial tension between black and white is the most prevalent, but it is not the only one. Long before there was slavery, there was prejudice against Catholics by Protestants. This has never been dissipated. It is under the surface like the next point to which this piece is centered. Wealthy producers have always exploited labor. The stories out of our early beginning in industrialization about labor abuse are not stressed enough in our school system due to possible dangerous outcomes. This is wrong because it allows the abuses to continue. We have idiots in this nation who believe Honda is American because they have a factory here. There are many examples like this. How about the corrupt leaders of Boeing? They made it known to their union employees in the home base of Seattle that they would move work out of the plant to the non-union South if they did not get the vote that they sought. As soon as they received the vote that they wanted, they shipped out the new work to the South. There are countless cases like when the steel workers during President Kennedy's term went on strike over wages, job security and benefits. The CEO asked JFK to mediate. He did. The CEO got his way and as soon as he did, he cancelled all the union requests. Labor felt betrayed by Johnny. He bought this issue to the nation as he berated the CEO nationally. We don't have leaders with that type of guts anymore.

Why are you addressing this, you ask?

There has been a lot of talk about fairness to blacks, especially with employment and also, the rise of homelessness in America and the wealth gap with a shrinking middle-class. 

If you believe the government through its agencies, the medium household income rose in 2019 in the US to $68,700. I don't. Stats show that 40% of Americans earn less than $30,000 a year and most of that percentage earn less than $24,000. The way that the government calculates these figures is skewed. The higher incomes raise the stats of the lower earners. However, the total amount of people is 40% of the population. The government says poverty fell from 38 million to 34 million in 2019. Oh, yeah? Then explain why in every city there are visible signs and not the ones in demonstrations, but people sleeping in parks, under bridges or in shelters. If I am wrong and the Census Bureau is correct, how come 26% of all Americans sought payment deferral plans under the CARES Act? Explain why unemployment claims keep a steady 800,000 every week? I am not alone in asking these questions, however my answers are different. Then, there is this one point to digest. We, at Evolution say that 40 million Americans are unemployed. If we are correct, consider this point. Of all the nations in the world (195), 158 have less than 40 million people. This is how bad and sad our economy actually is functioning. 

Michael Farr, a CNBC contributor says...

"The problem with the US economy is there are too many poor people." He is correct! He goes on to say that government stimulus is not really stimulating the economy. He is right again! If the government had spent their money in a massive infrastructure program like repairing bridges, roads and tunnels, we get more for our stimulus dollars. If it modernized our shipping ports, the result would be more quality jobs and revitalizing the middle-class. Quality incomes enrich society and this develops commerce which creates more opportunities. This would also ease tensions on race and religion. WEST SIDE STORY is a true reflection of our society when there is little social mobility. Poor whites blame poor PRs for their blight. The negativity breaths its own life of racial hatred. This is part of the BLM movement.

Back to Mr. Farr. He is wrong to say that the economist, Milton Friedman is wrong about inflation. Milton said, "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output." Our debt has been increasing at 7% yearly while our GDP is only at 2%. Milton was right, but his conclusion goes against what the Federal Reserve wants to do. The reason why the US does not meet the so-called inflation target of 2% is due to the machinations by the Fed. When you do not count the three things that everyone needs: food, energy and shelter, then, you can show no inflation. The other point relates to wage earners. There are no quality job left in the US. Everything is imported. When the importers have to exchange their lower valued currency for our reserve currency, this negates any rise in purchase price. If you want inflation, protect American companies and workers! Keep in mind, a strong currency helps low-wage earners as it buys more for their limited income. The lower the value of your currency, the harder life becomes for your poorer population.

Inflation...

would rise in the US like it did in the 1970s if we can place tariffs on imports. The tariffs would force producers back into the US. Our higher priced labor would cause inflation. This is always dangerous to see inflation growing. However, the dollar would actually get stronger to which will help low-wage earners until they could find a new job in manufacturing. This would raise their standard of living as well as everyone - "The rising tide lifts all boats" Sadly, both presidential candidates talk about quality job growth, but they have little conviction. In any event, we must be aware that we are not a homogeneous society. We are a modern experiment. In history there have been a few enlightened people that favored the idea of tolerance for all people, creeds and religion. The greatest is Jesus of Nazareth with love for one's neighbor as one would love himself. The US is the only nation to try this approach with democracy in recent history. We take one step forward and two back. This economic recession will pass, but the return of the vibe to live in peace with one another is needed to last. We have had attempts to make our name "United" really mean that. The last effort was in the 60s with the movement and song by the Youngblood's, "...let's try to love one another right now..." Let the meme sing in our hearts. If we ever get this second chance to save America, we need to make sure that all our citizens get an equal opportunity. We would then be truly the United States. Peace.