My Populism Rant

- A little rebellion now and then is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storm in the physical. 

- Thomas Jefferson

Some of you may be familiar with the quote to his buddy, James Madison, but do you know the rest of the story? Jefferson goes on to say, "When rebellions are unsuccesful, incroachments follow on the rights of the people."

Jan. 6, Hearings

This is where we are today in America. The people in power are seeking to milk the event to crush their opposition and at the very least, never have to worry about Trump as a political opponent. Our nation is further cut off from the people with barricades, fenses and armed security in Washington. A future protest could end up with deaths with over-reaction by security. This leads to violence like the sad episode with then, President Trump visiting the local church to proclaim freedom of speech. How ironic? There is nothing new under the follow-up investigations to the sad episode. Let me begin by saying, "This was not a rebellion." There were idiots within the demonstration who hid under the crowd which they manipulated to become a mob. That is all it was. There were no guns to seize and retain control. Most people left by their own volition. They were not sure in what they participated was good or bad? If we look back on the day's proceedings, then, we realize that President Trump is an egotistical coward. He said from his platform, "Let us go walk down to Congress and let them know that we are here." However, he was nowhere to be seen. He did not lead the group like a man of conviction. He is guilty of that. The manipulators within the crowd are guilty of the violence. End of story.

American History

When our first seated government passed its first tax in 1794, it caused protest by farmers. Why, you ask? The tax was on spirits and the revenue was needed for debt from the Revolutionary War. Whiskey was a farm product and used by farmers like money. You can understand their dislike of the tax. However, the government needed to show many things like resolve and ability to govern. The whole episode is called, "Whiskey Rebellion."

I understand the farmers point of view, but the President Washington led government was right. However, history shows that government favors the wealthy over the ordinary. This is not right. In 1883, Andrew Carnegie purchased a steel plant in Homestead, Pa. It was an early union site. He upgraded the plant while hiring new non-union workers. In 1892, the union guys sought to get everyone in the union. They went on strike. The plant hired Pinkerton cops who shot at union protestors. Violence erupted with 12 people dead. The hired cops feared no reprisal from the law which aided them against the union protestors. If you want real education, American wealth and power is anti-labor and anti-union. This deeper feeling is a big part of the January protest.

Real Causes

People appered at the rally for a variety of things. We, at Evolution would like to think that we share our thinking with the majority of them. I think we all feel that our governmental leaders do not listen to us. They label our concerns under a category as if that explains everything with the condescending attitude that the public is wrong. They call it "Populism." We are disenfranchised from government. This is where we stand.

Outsourcing: Our manufacturing concerns are guilty of excess greed. The IMF reports that they fear the growth in the middle-class worldwide will stop due to COVID and protectionism. That growth came as a result of our middle-class shrinking along with our standard of living. You can see the results sleeping on the streets and the no future acting out tragedies with violence and guns. Our government should have imposed tariffs on all imports years ago. It would have protected workers, our standard of living and domestic firms. This is one of the few things Trump had right. The only other thing that needed to be done was lowering the taxes that companies pay to 25%. This was to spur firms to relocate to the US. However, these people are so greedy that they just moved from one foreign nation (out of China) into another like VietNam.

Outsourcing takes many forms. Close a factory in the Mid-West and relocate to a Southern state that provides the clause, "right to work." This is code for no unions! This is anti-worker which the paid off Congress has allowed since Reagen came to power.

Our so-called leaders have allowed products into our economy which are dangerous. Monsanto people have no conscious when they develop a product that is toxic to humans like Roundup. When drug companies go unchecked with untested drugs like fentanyl. When too-bit oil firms sink shale rigs that leak chemicals into the water table. The list goes on-and-on. This is America today. We get a virus and we realize that we cannot even manufacture a mask?! By the way, it comes from China like everything else.

Immigration

The whole world cannot come to America. The southern border is gone crazy. We cannot accept that many people. Our nation will always take immigrants. There will arise global crisis where we will have unexpected people seeking help like with Ukraine. Tell those Spanish speaking people to move to the many other nations in Central and South America where they have a common language. We can only assimilate so many at one time.

Student Debt

I do not know how this became an issue. Individuals make a choice. I gave up football because I realized that I had to work to pay for college. My cousin was a cop. He attended night school which is a long, slow process. You might only take one or two courses. You are always tired. You will not get the best grades, but you persevere. This is a great American trait. Today, he is a lawyer. God bless. Now, kids today take loans. That is their choice. They used the money for school, room and board. Who knows, maybe a car for transportation. Now, they want a free ride by asking, no demanding their loans be paid by us, the taxpayers. No damn way, Josie! I hate this with a passion. 

Miltary and Pentagon

We went from a peaceful, nuetral country to being a world danger for the annilation of humanity. The freaking military takes over half of our nation's budget as it wastes resources, lives and sending all of us into bankrupcy and third world status. Oh, yeah! Please tell me when we were electec to be the police force for the world? End forign entanglements!

Protectionism, Protectionism, Protectionism.

Every nation in the world practices protectionism. Our government, to which is why we stress a new third political party, must start to protect American workers and our way of life. If we can accomplish that starting point, the people will again begin to have faith that their government is following the founders belief to "Promote the general welfare."   Peace.

 

Market Signs

This week, we, at Evolution will devote this piece to the stock market and related aspects. We cannot go into deep detail due to the lack of space. With that said, we look look at the present prices with an near term outlook. 

Oil

The most traded commodity and most important item for any economy. Both Brent and US light crude appear ready to challenge their recent highs set back in March. If Brent breaches $139 and US passes $130, every economy will be in trouble. One serious negative that has not come to light is refinery capacity. At present, the US is running full tilt with around 18-million gallons of gasoline. A plus for the climate and economy is more electric cars because the US will never build another refinery. If our economy was full trottle, we would need 20-million gallons. Gasoline is at highs. Last Friday, it was $4.25 per gallon. Diesel broke $4.30 and nationally, the four dollar per gallon fears the approaching $5 per gallon. Can you see the problem? Do you hear that Chairman Powell? How about the Fed's shill, Janet "Yellen" Yellen who admitted that she was wrong on inflation? We stand by our call, End the Fed!

Dr. Copper

The US has passed an infrastructure bill, so the long-term outlook is for higher prices. This translates to its testing of the high of $5.04. At present, copper appears to be forming a sideways or consolidation pattern. We like two firms, Freeport McMoran (FCX) and Taseko Mining (TGB). Electric cars need a lot of copper.

Wheat and Grains

Prices have declined despite higher costs for fuel, fertilizer, pesticides and labor. In addition, most state utilities are seeking price hikes. Nationally, 80% of corn has been planted, 73% of spring wheat and 66% of soybeans. The market is very sensitive to news like Russia allowing food exports from Ukraine. I would not trust them. They could claim any shipment and keep the commodity. This relates to our next section...

Shipping

The Baltic Dry Shipping Index (BDI) is in an uptrend after diving down in February. The high is 5650 and low is around 1300. This too appears to be forming a consolidation pattern. The top of the range is around 3400 and bottom resitance at 2000. We do not recommend any firms due to new technology and oversupply. Bottlenecks appear to be easing, but this can change overnight with news.

$Gold

We love what our founders love, but it is the enemy of fiat. I read an article about the ex-central banker of Canada (Dodge) who hates gold. The nation sold all its reserves. He says, "It cost money to hold and it doesn't pay a dividend." The liar! Governments and central banks set regulations. If they recognized gold as money, then you could use your gold as collatteral for a bond and then, gold pays a dividend. Central bankers are liars!!! 

Anyway, gold is in its second attempt to challenge the high of $2078 it reached in March. It is building cause to retest the high. With the world at historic highs in debt, the future looks good. There is one thing in the long-term charts that gives me concern. There appears to be a reversr H&S pattern. At the moment, top resistance is $2078 and bottom strength is $1750. We like three firms. Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), Barrick Gold (GOLD) and Argonaut Gold (ARNGH).

Housing

In the US, housing broke to a new all-time high for an existing home at $391,200. The mortgage rate broke over 5% to which means less buyers for homes. The outlook is not very promising with higher rates coming. However, all commodities will hinge on the dollar.

$King Dollar

There is a new test/price point. If the dollar surpasses 103.82, watch out! It could test the high of 105 and then, 120 could come at us. This will hurt all economies.

Market Indexes

We stand by our previous call for the Dow to test a low of 29,000. The transports to hit 11,000 and the SPX to touch 3400.    Peace.

Dinner: Rice and Beans, if...

... you can afford it; know how to cook this nutritious, hot meal. The sentence says a lot. Let's start with the purchase as we continue with connecting the dots within our economy and life. According to Oxfan, a global charity, 52 million Americans earn less than $15 an hour. To put that number in perspective that is 32% of our workforce. When you plan meals for the week and your wallet is running on empty, rice and beans is a good option. Get use to it because you will be eating it many, many more times in the near-term. I would suggest checking the internet on the various ways to prepare the meal. The two staples are among the least expensive food items. However, all food costs are rising. Food prices are up 9.4% for April and 8.8% year over year (yoy). 

If you find a recipe to mix up the R&B dinner with chicken, forget about it! A bird flu is causing the culling of millions of hens to which will also increase the cost for eggs. It will get worse!

No Wheat and other Grain Exports

You read that correctly. There are no wheat and other grains coming out of Ukraine which is a very large global supplier. No one wants anything from Russia, but they are also a food exporter. Then, we hear this: India is stopping wheat exports due to fear that the nation won't have enough for its population. Other nations are proposing similar measures. In the US, the drought is holding back food production. We have enough for our nation, but the costs are rising due to inflation on fertilizer, gasoline, diesel is at record pricing and labor. Then, we read this report from the...

FAO 

The Food and Agriculture Organization says food will spike to record levels this year. The war in Europe has already pushed up wheat prices by 36%. This increase will eventually filter to everyone just like the jump in oil prices. The US Department of Agriculture has changed their yearly food price outlook due to world circumstances. It was 2.5%. Now, it is 6%. 

Here Come the Shills

However, the latest inflation reports for April present a different picture. It is one that "Yellen" Yellen is using to claim that inflation has peaked. The shills dominate the media. Goldman says the Fed has done enough. The danger has passed. These are some of the crooks that control our lives. It is another reason why our nation needs a new third political party that is for the people to do like the Founders desired, promote the general welfare. Anyway, let us do a little math to prove that they are liars. The April report says inflation slowed to .02% for the month.They adjusted their overall inflation stance to 6.3% yoy. Then, we have a different picture by the Bureau of Labor Stats (BLS). They adjusted their inflation figure to 8.3% yoy. We, at Evolution say BS! Why, you ask? 

If food jumped for the month in costs by 9.4% and you have to eat everyday, your wallet tells you the truth. Meanwhile, these crooks smile as they say, "Inflation was only .02% higher for the month." You can realize how everything is manipulated. Nothing has peaked like the Fed's lie of "transitory" oil prices. This month of May saw record gas prices for the nation with the average price well over $4 per gallon. The Federal Reserve has destroyed the dollar and our standard of living and the crooks know that, but they need cheap money to continue the game and screw the people. This should lead you to join our meme, End the Fed!   Peace.

Odds and Ends: May 2022

Elected Leaders

The national primaries just ended. I find them more interesting than election day. Why, you ask? Because all the lies and innuendos by running candidates, exposes them for the phonies that they are. The Republicans love to claim that they are conservative. They imply by this moniker that they will be for a balanced budget, against taxes and against government into private enterprise. Well, take Idaho for example. It is a solid Red State. One Republican candidate put ads on television saying his opponent for governor supported taxes on food, businesses, etc. This renominated Republican governor has inplace taxes on food, businesses, etc. Another Republican candidate for Congress, voted for every stimlus package, never mentioned a balanced budget and he has been in one government office or another for over forty years. I guess he is not for term limits either? This is why I do not vote. I will not validate these crooks. Someone should do a documentary on the phonies in both political parties. This is another example why our nation needs a new third political party, the Liberty Party that is for the people.

Market

Interesting, sad fact: Everyone who purchased stock shares of the NASDAQ since the November 2020 lows, is in a losing position. We, at Evolution still stand by our projected calls on the major indexes. If we are correct, we will reevaluate our call at that time. We look strongly at volume. 

NSA

Our Big Brother spy operation made a brief announcement this month. They said that now there is no back door into the US by hackers or questional governments because everything is encrypted. I don't know about you, but this scares the hell out of me. It implies that previously there was a way into our data systems. Once you are in, the only way to exterminate the intrusion is to wipe out the system and to start all over again. I do not know how to do this, but our tech leaders need to do this to protect the security of the nation and citizens from hackers.

Crypto Death

It is estimated that 40% of all crypto currency investors are in a losing position. We warned our readers that crypto is not the answer to our banking and currency problems. All crypto does is replace the banking idustry with a new unknown banking industry. The bitcoin is even phonier than fiat. Precious metals has a proven record, but the fiat people control the media and education within our society. A gold foundation has made any nation using it strong until the corrupt nature within man manipulates to weaken a gold/silver curency foundation. Then, that nation falls like Rome, Spain and England with the US heading in that direction. Vote with your dollars. Forget crypto, buy gold and precious metals!

More Retail Doom and Gloom

Many retail firms saw the ramifications of COVID. They realized that lockdowns could cause supply problems. When they had the chance, they doubled up on their orders. Even though many items are in short supply, most retailers were able to weather the storm of the bottlenecks in the supply chain. However, the inflationary effects of food, energy and housing/shelter are causing spending concerns by consumers. Keep in mind, the Ferderal Reserve does not include any of the big three in their phony matrix formula. Like we always say, "End the Fed!" 

Anyway, this consumer cutback on spending is causing a new concern for retailers. Their inventories are too high and they already have to consider next Christmas. Big discounts will be coming this summer. Cash is king!

Fed

Speaking of the devil, President Biden renewed Chairman Powell's term as chief central banker. He immediately got on his puplit to say that he will fight inflation with rates hikes. It is like in the Godfather, whoever claims that he is not the leak, is the leak. We predict that Powell will BLINK! Why, you ask? Because the concept of the central bank is for the wealthy and big business. Their unwritten motto: Privatize the profits, socialize the losses. Quess who the socialize are? They also helped to make the military presence strong by financing our debt. Don't misread this. I am for veterans. But I am against war and the Pentagon presence in our lives. To give you an idea of the Fed's destruction of our dollar, consider this: In 1966, a private was paid $89 per month with a high risk on life. Today, a private gets $386.50 per month with a medium risk on life. Let us repeat ourselves. End the Fed!  

New Tech n' Transport

Harley Davidson is teaming up with Google to bring SmartPhone technology to their bikes, most notably their new electric rides. You can get maps, etc. from the handlebar. 

A German medical research team is developing tech to work with paralized people. Believe it or not, a disabled person can direct to drive a vehicle through a straw that senses mental pluses that can be interpreted to direct a car. This is a self-driving on a whole new level. Wow!    Peace. 

  

Dots and Tidbits

We, at Evolution always say that if you can connect the dots, the big picture is revealed. One helping aspect in the puzzle is how tidbits relate. We have a few for your consideration.

Job Numbers

Ever wonder when job numbers are released, whether it helps or hurts the unemployment percentages? Last week the BLS stated that 428,000 jobs were filled, but the unemployment percentage remained the same at 3.6%. Dear Reader, you know how position on this matter. The real reason why our economy has not been strong for years is found in one aspect - labor participation rate. It is still low. It almost touched 60% in 2020 due to COVID. To give you perspective, the labor rate in 2000 was almost 68%. At present, the labor rate is 1.2% lower than 2020. What does that percentage mean? It means that 896,000 less workers were employed. Both President Trump and Biden BS when it comes to the truth about our economy. You cannot trust Republicans or Democrats. It is why we are for forming a new third political party, the Liberty Party. Continuing...

The other most important stat is the import/export ratio. In 2021, our deficits expanded an astonishing 27% higher than 2020. Consider this, if you have the time? In 2020, the labor participation level was almost 60% and in 2000, it was almost 68%. How many millions of jobs have we lost? You can see the effects sleeping on streets every day.

Layoffs

The news is full of reports on jobs that are left unfulfilled, but there is a real reason why the unemployment rate goes unchanged even in the face of a strong job report. It is layoffs and cost cutting by firms. This gets very little print or coverage. This is a list that we gathered.

1) Better: they layed off 4,000 and the company losr $100 million.                                                            2) Noon: they have 495 less workersin this weight loss firm.                                                                      3) Peloton: 2,800 were given the pink slip on company outlook and losses.                                              4) Thrasio: they cut 20% of staff as this partner of Amazon said that they expanded too fast.                  5) Robinhood: Also claim that they expanded too fast with workers suffering under cost-cutting.          6) Wells Fargo: Mortgage apps have dropped. Company employs cost-cutting in housing devision.        7) Canopy Growth: they have 250 less to grow some buds in this cost-cutting measure.                        8) Food 52: 10% of company layed off as they decided to take a new direction. Does not sound good.  9) Cameo 87: Another firm that uses the cliche that they exoanded too fast.

In a related aspect, some big tech firms like Facebook have instituted a job freeze. Of cource, one reason for Facebook is that they face a lawsuit?

Market

Everyone who has purchased shares on NASDAQ from the November lows of 2020 is in a losing position. Margin calls will be going out soon to which will push the market lower. We maintain our previous outlook under charting for lows in the Dow, Transports and NASDAQ. Protect yourself with stops.  Peace.                                                                                          

Add Global Debt to Problems

- Deficits don't matter!

- Vice-President Dick Cheney

His parents named him right. He is a Dick!

Eli Whitney's great idea of interchangeable parts can also be utilized in other areas, notably, the economy. When things are going well and product is flying off the shelves, production workers enjoy a full forty hour work-week and unemployment is low, the economy should be humming. Well, our unemployment is at record lows, product is flying off the shelves and everyone is looking for help. Full-time work is available. So, why all the recession talk?

What goes up...

also goes down. The connection from production to product to the shelf has many other unseen fasets. There are many parts that are needed to make a machine work properly. There are many little items that the producer must gather to make the final product. The logistics from production to the consumer level requires transportation and packaging. These are the interchangeable parts. If you do not have semiconductors, you have an unfinished product. If you don't have packaging, you cannot deliver. If you don't have your logistics together, everything stops. COVID-19 became the ultimate stopage. 

Then what?

Governments provided stimulus while a vaccine was sought. When they cannot afford the stimulus, they charge it - deficits. It helped, but it was not enough. The one saving grace that most people utilized was to charge it with the credit card. This is personal deficits. They had to because bills still had to be paid and almost everyone was laid off. Then, governments worldwide provided help for housing. Moratoriums were established for renters and mortgages. Now, society is getting the backlash for these restrictions. The moratoriums are ending. Consumers now face balloon payments for back dated leases and mortgages. This forces a new dilemna. Continue to use credit with excessive interest or vacate the premise? As you can clearly see, deficits do matter and they must be repaid.

Anyway, either choice poses problems. This is where we are and another reason for recession talk. Consider the following reports from little known sections of large firms and agencies.

Global Debt Data Sources: They are following the results of the ending worldwide moratoriums on housing. Early signs say a crisis is brewing.

Mastercard Economics Institute: They cover 165 nations. They report that many old, previous businesses to the virus are failing. In 2020, 60% were behind on bills. Their bottom lines improved in 2021, but they are threading on thin ice.

World Bank - Pulse Enterprise Survey: They cover 24 low-income nations. They show 40% of businesses are behind on payments. 

Lenders: They are feeling the pain from the moratoriums. They do not receive mortgage payments and landlord loans.This is part of the interchangeability and velocity of money. This is duress in the system except their influence with government (read taxpayer bailout) and or, central banks watching their back (read Fed) always helps.

Russia's War: Their action in Ukraine only adds various inflationary aspects like shortage of oil, food and worldwide currency exchange. The latest is Russia demanding oil payment in rubles.

World Bank: They reported that under-developed nations need to show more transparency in how they are solving their economic problems. Everyne needs to find ways to keep credit available to households and businesses. 

All of the above are insights to consumers worldwide. They are stretched to their economic limit. Houston, we have a problem.   Take care - Peace.

What's Next?

The title is a little too open ended. I should add clarity. I will talk about two things: the market and what I see as the next big public issue. That is not to say that the present public concerns have been addressd. They have not. Homelessness is the biggest growth issue as well as inflation. The US is getting hit with a double whammy. We oursourced our middle class jobs, but the supply chain to those products got an unexpected bump in the road with COVID. 

We are in for difficult times. Affordable housing gets constructed at a 100,000 units per year. At the moment we have more than one million new low-wage immigrants at the border not to mention the countless more Americans living in cars, vans and vacant lots. It is worth repeating. We are in for difficult times.

Market

It is dropping on high volume. The bounces are at lower highs and the lows at at new levels. Of course, we are in "window dressing." This is the first few days of the month when funds put money into the market. It is the force that always seems to drive the market higher. There will be an unwritten market test. If the market cannot break up over its range, the previous trend, falling, will resume. At present, here at Evolution, we see the Dow testing the 29,200 level. The transports are in sync. They could drop to 13,000 and NASDAQ is leading the down charge. It could hit the 11,000 range. Within the NASDAQ, the three Qs could broach 260. It was as of last Friday, 315. When markets crater like this, it is like swimming naked. The moving tide reveals all things. Sebatian will point out two firms that had big run-ups. People buy into these stocks because they think that someone knows something. This is a flaw in charting. It is why I always like to know the fundamentals as a sidekick to charting.

Teladoc Health (TDOC). This company enjoyed a huge run-up due to COVID. It really has no earnings. It reached $308 in February of 2021 and last Friday, closed at $33 and change.

Carvana Co. (CVNA). This is another firm with little in the bank. Last August it touched $376 per share. As of last Friday, you could get the same stock for $57. Both of these forms demonstrated destruction of capital. Always do your homework. There is no free lunch.

Fed Today...

they will try to control the narrative in our economy and mostly, the market as well as you and I. Whatever BS they throw out after their action will have a lot to do with the near-term market price action.

King $Dollar

You should always watch the price action of the US Dollar. It has been rising as a safe heaven due to world geo-concerns. It pierced $103 last Friday. This price action came from the $95 level. It went straight up. However, long-term charts show resistence at $104. If the dollar breaks higher than that, $120 is game. This will not be good news for the precious metals and commodities. On the contrary view, the dollar could be forming a triple top in charting. This is bearish. It fell back on Friday to $102. Watch King Dollar!

Plastics

This will be the next big public concern. It has been a long time since the "Graduate." He is old and is getting health concerns. When he heard the suggestion of "plastics" no one knew this issue. It is tied to health. Just like the health issue of cigarettes and climate change with fossel fuel, plastics are a problem. They have ingredients that cause cancer. They are in every plastic bottle like water. Talk about irony? We have to have water to live, but drinking it from plastic could cause cancer. Already, the American Chemistry Council is putting out lies to challenge the science and to protect their idustry. Instead of seeking to develop a safe container while they are making huge profits, these no vision CEOs, are playing the same old, same old game. They throw out more garbage to confuse the public. Just like the previous idiot at Exxon, Lee Raymond. He had the chance to develop solar and wind energy at its invent. Instead, he played the confuse the public game. He is a disgrace in our eyes. By the way, the garbage lies by plastic firms are filling up our dump sites and clog our waterways and hurt our oceans. That should tell everyone something.  Pray for peace in Ukraine and Peace to all.