Decision Time

Later today, the Federal Reserve will announce their final decision for 2022 on rates hikes to fight inflation that they caused. We will get beck to that after this. If the move is only a quarter point, then our call at the beginning of the year will be valid. We stated that the Fed will pivot. We called for only a half point hike in their last meeting and only a quarter point in this one. So, if they raise by only a quarter point, our early call would only be a quarter point off the actual number. If they raise by a half or more, then we are off the mark and wrong. Of course, the recent inflation data will influence their decision. No matter what they say and "Yellen" Yellen has declared that by the end of 2023, inflation will be subdued. Book it! We do not agree with her. She is now nothing more than a shill. We see civil employees like teachers, police and firemen, all seeking higher wages and this will be a chain to other working groups. Book that!

What we are not wrong on...

...is blaming the corrupt and not elected agency called the Federal Reserve as the primary cause for inflation, the destruction of the dollar and the lowering of our standard of living. It is easy to understand why Congress and the President signed them into existence. The president can finance projects to get re-elected. Congress is nothing more than a collection of egos with a law degree. They have little insight. If anything goes wrong with the economy, they can deflect any blame by casting it toward the Federal Reserve. It is not our fault! It is the Fed! Then, they go into their spiel, "Elect me for jobs and a better economy." They never get into details on how they would fulfill their slogan. This is one of the reasons why America needs a new third party that stands up for American workers. With that said...

Did You Know...

...that in March of 2020 the Federal Reserve exploded our dollar with their printing press. Yes, we know the Treasury is the printer, but the Fed buys everything that they print. The treasury knows and operates with this understanding. It is no wonder that a few years back the Federal Reserve announced that they will no longer publish their money supply. Nevertheless, we do get yearly estimates. The Fed has been steadily increasing dollars since the 1950s. In any economic crisis, they add to the supply. However, in 2007, it jumped. Then, in March 2020 it quadrupled! Did the economy grow by four times? Did your paycheck climb by a multiple of four? And our debt is off the charts. It grows by 7% yearly. Again, we ask, did your personal wealth grow by that percentage? 

No! Of course, not! However, we have more hack scams, more street crime and more people homeless. The only industry that is growing is food banks. Can you begin to see the big picture. When we end this piece, will you join us in our meme song? Continuing...

It is so bad that the Fed does not know how many dollars are outside our border. They have lost control of the currency. If their institution was audited, they would be declared bankrupt. Their excessive control over our currency and money supply is central to the founders thinking in framing our nation. They new that a hard currency cannot be manipulated. They chose precious metals as our root to develop our nation. It is in the constitution. The Fed was formed by politicians under the influence of money from big banks. Their money is fiat. Who would you rather trust?

Milton Friedman stated years ago, "Any increase in the money supply will show up in inflation." It is no wonder that they hold this insightful economist in low esteem. We say that he is correct. It also lowers the value of each dollar and thus, our dollar buys less and our standard of living decreases. When you add each action by the Federal Reserve, you can see the results in your own life and on the street. It is why we say and ask you to join us in chorus, End the Fed!

Divergence

There are a few things happening that will keep the market from making a decisive move. The first, is King Dollar. When it rises, the market sinks. When it retraces, the market gets air to rise. Of course, the shadow behind the dollar's direction and the market's, will be the Fed. 

Our Call...

for the Federal Reserve to pivot was off with their last rate hike. However, we stated that if the Fed pivots in their last meeting for the year, well, then, we are not. Time will tell all. With that said, we have been collecting data and info on the present state of the economy. 

Job Cuts...

will begin to effect the psyche of the market. At the moment, the market sees the Fed slowing its rate hikes. This is the force behind the market movement. However, last week, the Bank of America released a report stating that they see the loss of 175,000 jobs per month in the first quarter of 2023. Lately, we have seen teck firms announce layoffs. Layoffs rose in November from October by 129%. If you research the yoy for November, it shows a 417% rise in job cuts. And yet, the government says unemployment remained at 3.7%. Going back to the B of A report, even if this does not happen as the report believes, there are other fear factors.

Inverted Yields...

in bonds is always something to pay attention too. At the moment, 80% of short-term bonds give a higher yield than long-term notes. This is a very dark cloud. 

Commodities...

got a big push last week, but the individual mining stocks did not move with the higher prices. This is disharmony. Digging deeper, take a look at Exxon-Mobil. Their project in Mozambique began producing LNG. There is a stong market for this gas, but the oil giant did not climb. This adds to the picture of divergence. We mentioned last week that Chevron received a US license to pump oil in Venezuela. The stock did nothing. This adds conviction to reveal the market has no conviction in direction. The last aspect that we well look at is the..

Consumer

A government reports reveals that their previous report on US savings pattern was wrong. It is not high, but at a 17-year low. It went from a high at $4.85 trillion to fall to $626 billion. Ouch!

If you are doing Christmas shopping, try to buy American.   Peace. 

Odds and Ends: November 2022

Since the year is almost over, we thought that we look back to our first Odds and Ends: January 2022. We stated that it is the Year of the Tiger and it is hungry as well as the bears who were in hibernation. We mentioned the danger of the Russian buildup along the Ukrainian border. We gave a stat on hackers. As it turns out, another year passes with no one addressing the problem. This should be our foreign policy and not sending troops to police every world problem. Anyway, the year is ending with...

Job Cuts

They keep coming and the market does not understand the ramifications. HP announced 6,000 pink slips that will be given over the next 36-months. Consider these other teck firms: META=11,000, Amazon=10,000, and 700 other teck firms throwing in the towel. Keep in mind that teck was the force behind the bull market and now, they scream bear in the street!

It is not just teck. Carvana, Cisco, Lyft and Stripe are adding to unemployment. You can see that some big money sees the writing on the subway walls. Checkout Tesla. It was $417 last November. Last Friday, it closed up at just $182. Dear Reader, we see $125 as a real possibility. We think Elon Musk has vision, but we do not like him as a person. He is definitely anti-worker just like Jeff Bezos who said that he will probably leave billions to do good for the climate, but he does not give a good economic climate to his help. Take a look at oil. It has been in a long downtrend. There is a possibility of oil falling to $60-bucks. If it does, it will be a buying opportunity to purchase a strong oil company. Oil is not going away anytime soon. PS: Chevron just received a US license to pump oil in Venezuela, again.

Once last thought on the present market outlook. There are lower gaps in the Dow, S&P and Qs. The trend is to close them. The dollar is boucing. This points to a pullback. Then, the calender suggest the Christmas rally. However, January is a cold, wintery month. We expect the rally will be short lived. January is also the yearly barometer. We are not aware of the title to 2023, but it looks tough for the market.

Thanksgiving?

We hope yours went well, but the idiocy of constant shootings forces us to address this question. Your ego was so hurt that you decide to KILL! Of course, this will most likely be your last act on earth. You will die in the process. However, the next moment you will face God. Think about that?!

Meanwhile...

China keeps pushing the envelop to gain financial influence. Last month, they made their first cross-border transaction in digital currency. In 2020, they began the process by having its central bank use digital money domestically in a region that has 350-million people. The idiots in Europe and Davos want to maintain good relations with Red China. Listen up you elite assholes, China controls exports and they are number one in manufacturing as well as a dozen other categories. Once they grab finances, only satellite communication will be the last frontier for them to reveal their true colors, world domination. We repeat our first sentence in our first Odds and Ends 2022, this is the Year of theTiger.

Try to enjoy the holidays. Try to buy American and do some good in His world.  Peace.

 

Holiday Outlook

We start with a song. We sing for the bitcoin fools, "...And another one bites the dust..." This may not be the best holiday sentiment, but we do not like these condescending types. What we have learned in our life experience and history is good ideas get a spin by the crooked in society. The EPA is a perfect example. The idea was before climate worries. The legislature passing was to gain votes. The "teeth" of the bill is that it has no teeth. It gets worse. Any new administration can put in place their stooges. No real good gets done even with a good idea. Now, look at bitcoin. When governments like Red China use the idea, it is only to control people. Your money and financial future is under Big Brother. Forget that! 

Thank God...

for our free open society. There is nothing more soothing than Christmas carols. It makes for brotherhood and to honor God. With that acknowledgment, it is time to look at the market. We told you that the falling of King Dollar has given the market breathing room. This is your rally to which we feel is just a bounce. What we saw last week was signs that the dollar formed resistance at 106. We see it poping up to around 110. This will cause a pullback in the market. However, the historical season rally should kick in after this dollar bounce. What we conclude from this sign is that the market is under

Divergence

There is no harmony among the indexes. Dr.Copper keeps attempting to form a new high, but a 40-year resistence level knocks it back. This does not bode well for commodities at the moment. If you look at the most important, oil, you see that it is testing its low around $77. If you look at the Baltic Dry Shipping Index, it is also testing its lows. On the flipside, the Bulls keep trying to push the market higher. They point to the falling dollar to gather others to join their effort. Please, do not fall for any meme stock. The shills will push firms like Coinbase. They say the price is great to get back into the stock. Dear Reader, the company will lose $2 billion this year and another billion next year. Don't be caught nurishing your beer with your head down and hearing from the juke box, "...And another one bites the dust..." Instead, seek friends and or family with a smile on your face and in your heart. Enjoy our great traditions and freedoms. HAPPY THANKSGIVING!   PEACE!

Fool's Money

- If you want it, here it is, come and get it...                                                                                                        ...Did I hear you say that there must be a catch?                                                                                       Will you walk away from a fool and his money?

- Badfinger

BT Barnum...

I could have easily started off with one of his quotes, but the changing demograpghics and a weaker education system suggests something within a generation. Generation Z condescends the rest of us as they believe that teck gives them an advantage. They are right about the teck aspect, but wrong about everything else. 

Bitcoin...

is something that we have been against since it started. We believe the "limited" printed aspect and out of government control are points that are overblown. All these founders are doing is replacing the banking industry that works with fiat money to their "chip" money for them to which is also fiat. It is just plastic as opposed to paper. How about the limited print point? It is probably a lie. Consider, I start a bitcoin. I put no money into the pot. I just set a price of $100 each. When the money comes rolling into the account, I create a few chips in my account. I get rich on fools investment. Even if I'm wrong about that point, the founder is still free to use the account in any form or investment that they seem to like - FTX answers the example. The next thing you know, the coin-chips are worth less and then, maybe zero? A fool and his money...

Meanwhile...

The market is in rally mode. We told you that the falling dollar is the reason. Consider the price action of King Dollar. In 2022, it reached a higher value every month until October. Now, it is retracing. To Where You Ask? That is the 64,000 question. Excuse me (demographics) that is the $2-billion power ball mystery. We see a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. This will go back to the last breakout level at 105. Then, the market will probably go sideways until earnings are revealed to which leads us to say...We are

In Recession

You and the government might feel otherwise, but here is what we see. The IMF stated that one-third of the global community is already in recession. The UK is at the door and it is open. Every day the news has reports of falling funds like Cathie Woods, FTX and bankruptcies. We hear about teck laying off people by the thousands from Twitter, Alphabet, Meta and 700 more firms. The government reported that inflation for October "fell" to 7.7%. Well, Gen Z, at 7%, you can double your money in 10-years. You do not need to risk it in the market. A government bond like the I-Bond will give safety and the return. We already told you that we are in the worst economic environment, stagflation. Earnings will be less if for no other reason, the strong dollar. Just use this rally to make small trades with a stop. Walk away from any long-term action. The market has not tested its bottom.

One last thought on the present inflation danger. If inflation becomes persistent, the same positives aspects for investing in a bond becomes a consumer nightmare. Consumer prices will double in ten years if this level of inflation continues. I can't even fantom gasoline at $8 bucks or housing doubling from the present levels. There is no such thing as "easy money." Low interest rates hide the structural problems in our economy and that is what needs to be addressed.  

Finally...

Did I hear someone say, Yay! Wise guy. We believe what Franklin and Jefferson believe. We trust gold. You cannot print gold. It takes millions and more millions to develop a mine. You have to find a location. You have to get permits. You need special equipment and since the locations are in far off locations, you have to provide the infrastructure. Then, it takes tons and tons of dirt just to get one ounce. Gold is undervalued. Our founders put it into the constitution. The Federal Reserve violates our constitution which is one of the many reasons that both of our political parties are corrupt. They allow the Fed to exist and control our currency. Thank God that our system allows us to change it. We need to revert back from fiat (fake) to gold (real). It helped to make our country great: Free market, free people with a stable currency and seek to be self-sufficient in as many areas as we can.            Peace.

 

Few Realize the Next Crisis

 - A man is just about as happy as he makes up his mind to be.

- Abraham Lincoln

Called It Wrong

Unlike the Federal Reserve and most of our leaders, we admit when we are wrong. We believed the Fed would blink. We called only a half-point rate increase. As you know, we received a three-quarter rate increase. However, we did follow-up on that call by saying that we see only a quarter-point rate increase in December. Now, we would like to add that Jerome Powell stated that the Federal Reserve may temper their future rate increases. We can call our call as not being totally wrong. At least, we were in the ball game. Nevertheless, the machinations of the Fed has caused a liquidity problem. Anyone, and we mean generally banks who purchased the "old" lower yielding notes from the government are losing money in two ways. Their reserve values have fallen since these bonds have dropped precipitously. With inflation roaring, these bonds could fall even more. This is why the Federal Reserve is quietly buying these notes. This is their real purpose. To protect the wealthy. Everything else attributed to them is BS.

Question?

You have $5,000 to invest. Two men are of equal value present you with a bond. One offers you a yield of 4.25% (30-year) and the other offers you 9.62% (I-Bond). Now, if idiots out there keep choosing the former, they are losing to inflation and the real value of their bond. This is the current problem for banks. However, like we have stated in the past, by lowering interest rates, you create a danger. We are in that danger. It is inflation. We also stated that there is another more dangerous economic state. It is called stagflation. It means that you have high inflation and low economic output. We are in it now!

Don't Forget

The real inherit danger of low interest rates is that it encourages debt. This is how many companies exist. They are called "zombie" firms. They would be out of business if interest rates were normal. However, with the stimulus of low rates, they can continue. This is another way how the connected receive benefits. The government picks and chooses winners and losers. They always pick the elite and only do things to buy votes from the rest of us.

New Problem

If the Fed maintains their policy of raising rates and the new magic number is 5% (up from 4.25%) many companies will enter bankruptcy. With that said, who is the biggest debtor in the world? Who has abused the privilege of being the reserve currency in the world? Who has consistantly run a deficit budget? You all know the answer. This is the next crisis.

When you borrow money, you have to pay interest on the amount. The drug of low money by the idiots at the Federal Reserve acted like a drug dealer supplying our nation. Our stupid, short-sighted government leaders only know how to address a problem by throwing money at it. They never save for a rainy day. They have abused the privilege that is bestowed on our nation, as the world's currency reserve. Now, the day of reckening is approaching. In fact, it is already here. With our national debt being off the charts, the interest that our nation owes on that debt is now, flying off the charts. We will owe as much interest debt on our budget as we spend for the military. Consider, that at present, this amounts to $425 billion. At 5%, it climbs to $500 billion and it compounds and it will grow worse until our budget is all interest debt. Where will we get money for medicare, for social security, for anything? This is another reason why we say, End the Fed!  If you think that is troubling, consider...

Another Problem

Many nations in the world are angry about the dollars rise because their currency is worth less. This is exporting currency inflation on top of consumer inflation. Now, the lying, Red Chinese under Xi understand the situation. They always look long-term. In 2020, they had their central bank introduce digital money in select regions. The population number is larger than the population of the US at 350 million Chinese people. Last month, they enacted their first cross-border digital transaction. In addition, they informed the BRICS alliance of nations that they would back any new currency that this group would introduce into the market. While doing this, China also is forcing some of its trading partners to do their exchange only with the Chinese yuan. The Red Communist Chinese party seeks to detrone the world from Kind Dollar to King Yuan. Xi knows that China is now the world's leader in exports. It is the #1 manufacturer. It is the #1 nation for foreign investment.  They are the "locomotive" for global growth. Xi seeks to be the number one nation in finances. If they achieve that, then they only have to control space with satillites to become number one in communications. Then, their true colors will show. They seek world domination. 

Whoever wins the mid-term elections had better start putting tariffs on anything and everything coming from China. By the way, the IMF also has a currency waiting to take the crown away from the US. If we ever lose our position as King Dollar, we will fall quickly to third world status as our debt is the cancer and the Federal Reserve is the cause.    Peace. 

The Question on Wednesday

- For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of the world, against spiritual wickedness in high places.

- Letter by Paul to the Ephesians

The above letter reminds you the names change, but the sins are the same. Speaking of the Devil, today, after we post, the Federal Reserve will announce the next level in the fight against the inflationary forces that they caused. We stated back in June that we believe the Fed will announce a half-point rate increase in interest rates. If correct, this is their blink. If wrong, the following meeting will determine our overall ability to see through the phoniness of the Federal Reserve. If you recall, we declared this half-point to be followed with a quarter point rate increase. The bottom line: what is the interest rate at the end of the year? Keep in mind, the Fed claimed that they want to see 4.25% interest rate. Of course, talk is cheap and actions is what really counts.

Market Outlook

The market is undergoing indecision. We begin with the present rally. It can trace its roots to the recent decline in the dollar. We told you that if King Dollar falls below 110.05, the market can breathe. The dollar actually fell below the test number, but on last Friday, it regained to climb to 111.98. One could ask is this a fake out? It would be foolish to answer until more facts present itself. Whatever happens, the market will immediately respond. On the upside, the market faces strong resistance at 33,500 on the Dow. The Transports coud test 14,000 and the S&P, 3950. With that said, if the dollar strengthens due to a rate increase, all the indexs will fall. If we are correct with the half-point increase, the market will go into a consolidation period. The market will make its determination with the December Fed meeeting. In the meantime, more and more analyst are becoming bullish. They want you to believe that they are right by reminding you that the market just had its best October since1976. We do not. We are adding this aspect to which is a serious problem. Consider this:

Diesel Fuel

It is needed by farmers, long distant rigs, shipping, factories and other usages. There is a shortage of supply. It amounts to the level of 1982 and the world has 3-billion more people. The average price for a gallon in 2021 was $3.28. It has been over five ($5) bucks since September. When I was in school and we actually did regular math, that means a gallon cost $2.06 more this year. This is inflation! It means food raised by farmers will cost more. When truckers load stuff and bring it to consumers, it will cost more.When shippers re-calculate costs, fuel will be front and center. All our imports and we import everything, will cost more. When you add wages, insurance, utilities and taxes, everything will continue to rise. 

In the mid-term elections, the Republicans will blame the Democrats, but the two are equally guilty. We are blessed to have a nation where we can vote. However, like Mark Twain said, "If voting mattered, they wouldn't let us do it." We don't vote party elections. We register as Independents. Someday, we hope our fellow citizens realize that there are more independents than either political party. We can form a new party. We advocated the Liberty Party. The platform has two points: protect American workers and end the military's hold on government that we are the police force for the world. Anyway, we do vote on referendums because this is true democracy. By voting party members, either Democrat or Republican, you are validating them and they are both corrupt. Anyway, this is how we see it.   Peace.