Odds and Ends: April 2025

- The strokes of the pen need deliberations as much as the sword needs swiftness.

- Julia Ward Howe

Related...

...to the above quote. This is to all leaders in regards to trade and conflicts in Europe, Middle East and Africa. You need to pause and think about all the possibilities of decisions and choose a course that reflects the best possible outcome and not a political course. 

Meanwhile

The US housing market continues to decline and fell 11.9% for new homes in March and 5.9% in all sales. Usually, it takes a long time for related data to affect stock prices. Now, we are seeing home builders begin to crater. Look at Lenar! It was $190 last September and it touched $100 in April.  How about the upscale developer, Toll Brothers? It was $167 last November and it fell below $90 in April. In our consumer society, a home is our biggest purchase and no one is buying and most cannot afford to buy. There is also one important piece of info. The stock market is now 2x the GDP. There have been only two other times. It happened here in 1929 and in Japan in 1989. Market is overpriced!

You need another example? Check out Zoom (ZM). It was $600 in 2020 and rising. It is now $77. Ouch!

Related

We have posted the continuing disaster in our retail sector, but now, we read layoffs in tech. These are high paying jobs that give people the means to purchase a new home to which creates more supply and choices for the market. It is a sad fact that the US and Canada are one, two or last place among advanced societies in providing housing per 1,000 of its citizens. 

Even though Intel announced bad news concerning its labor force as the firm is laying off 21,000 workers or 20%, we read some good news. Apple will invest $500 billion in America. Yea! They are going to build a new factory that will provide 20,000 jobs in the next four years. They shoud contact the experience of the Intel people. Before we relax, our cabal "friends" in the banking industry are setting the table for another financial crisis. 

Banking Cabal

They are quietly putting mischief in play. They are packaging and selling new securities. These include corporate loans, credit card debt, even golf carts. While this may blow up in their face, they don't worry. They know the Fed will have their back. When they do, you should realize why we say, "End the Fed!"

Brazil

The nation is offering a new bond that is tied to saving trees that eat up CO2. The money will aid nations who seek to save their forests.

Salt

Yes, salt. Sodium batteries could be the answer that EVs seek? Nation Energy is close to a solution.

Corn Fuel

We had the additive, ethanol for cars for a long time. Now, Lanza Tech is making ethanol jet fuel. However, it is still a work in progress.

DOGE

The "Dodge" boy, Musk shows his true love for America by building his new, 3rd. megafactory in...Shanghai. Also, he is cutting back his government duties to devote more time to his auto firm, Tesla. We have nothing against this, but we think that he should look into a merger with an EV charging firm to cover on a national scale. We see this happening in Europe. They worry about China covering the continent with one of their EV charging systems. The Spark Alliance has four European nations forming a partnership. The group has Italy's EV Atlente, Germany's Ionity, Netherland's Fartneed and France's Electra. We like Evgo in America, but we will wait for a price around $2.00. 

Did you know...

...that 90% of US bio-firms get 90% of substances as an import? President Trump should look into Big Pharma as they may not be aligned as a cabal. but they operate as one. 

Finally...

did someone say, "Yea!" This falls under the idiot column. Bill Gates is backing a biotech startup, Savor. They plan to sell a synthetic vegan butter that includes carbon dioxide. I'll pay extra for the real thing, thank you. Peace

Our Biggest Concern

- Debt can exceed the country's ability to pay it off

- Brutus in Anti-Federalist paper to Hamilton

Today

I write this on Saturday, the 19th of April. In the above quote, the warning by Brutus is proving to be true. On this day in 1775, the "Shot Heard Around the World" was fired at Lexington and Concord. Did all the founding fathers risk their lives because egotistical politicians could get elected and re-elected? In the present fight with and over tariffs, the numbers are facts. However, in today's lying and hiding of truth, they are manipulated or just kept of the books. 

Examples

They are everywhere. When LBJ decided to go to war in VietNam, he hid (off the books) the cost of the war. China does the same thing with their debt. The actual amount would say that China is bankrupt. They are not alone. Our Federal Reserve is bankrupt, but they can print money to keep solvent. Bernie Madoff coud not. He destroyed a lot of people. China has a whole nation of Bernie Madoff's. The collapse of the China Evergrande Group in real estate is just one, but it effected millions of Chinese people. The Communist Party does not care, they just print like the Fed. At one time, there were 500 electric auto firms in China. The government subsidized them all. They sought the one who could succeed, grab market share and provide jobs. There are 400 losers. The one positive thing that I will say about China is this: they use debt to buy real things. In contrast, we use debt to buy more debt. 

Brutus, John Adams and Thomas Jefferson...

They all warned about using debt, but the idiot Democrats and Republicans think that they know better than our founders. Their arrogant egos in relationship to our economy and debt tells a different story. For instance, the Biden budget for 2024 stated that our debt as a percentage of GDP was only 6%. This is mamipulation! 

Facts and Numbers are boring, but do not lie.

US budget for 2024 was $6.8 trillion. Our deficit for the year was $1.01 trillion. Dear Reader, basic math says that our deficit was 15% of our budget. The use of GDP pushes the figure to 6%, but that is the manipulation. The trend is frightening. The yearly deficit for 2014 was only $483 billion. This year, the interest alone will exceed one trillion = $1,000,000,000. The annual deficit compounds. The recent trend says that in seven years, 2032, this interest alone will double and the total would be unpayable. The smoking gun points to our trading deficit. Last year, it was $1 trillion and the figure has grown every year. Trump understands numbers. He is correct, but his approch is wrong. Pick a Industry! Save it. Nuetralize the import/export bottom line. If we just do this one aspect, then, we can begin the long road back to stabilized prices and economy.  Peace.  

Market Turning?

- It's the darkest before the dawn

- Thomas Fuller

Tariffs In, Tariffs Out

President Trump's unusual technique for negotiating was on full display last week. "Liberation Day" lasted 24-hours. He changed tune to extend tariffs from being enacted for another 90-days except for China. He added their export bill by increasing the tab to 124% on all merchandise. In some instances, the tariff reaches 145%.  Then, on Saturday, he exempted Chinese exports of cell phones, computers and chips from tariffs. Then, we hear reprieve is temporary? Will we hear the Mama's and Papa's sing come Monday morning?

We stated last week that the market will act with uncertainty. It is up wildly one day only to crash the next. We were right. We are also correct in saying that we have been in a stealth recession since 2022. No one else agrees only you.You see it in the cost of home ownership or in a rental lease. You see it in the items that you want to buy like eggs. You see it in all of your insurance bills from home to auto to health. By the way, water is next. It is no wonder that we do not place trust in the media "experts."

We Suggested

That Trump needs a plan and works the plan. That plan should recognize that our debt problem is a result of importing everything from everywhere for over 50-years. You cannot change things overnight. PICK a TARGET! Work with Congress to protect that industry with the outlook of adding new fields after the first target is fully grounded. The plan may not be finished during your administration, but everyone will know and realize that you put us back on the right path. Now, the market...

Three Signs of a Bear Market

Keep in mind that the market is always biased to be bullish. You saw the whiplash last week to the upside after big down days. The bulls look for Trump to soften the tariffs. They also believe that the Fed will lower interest rates. This is their meme for a higher market. It is the status quo that is always protected. We see a possible bull flag that is extremely bullish forming, but it is too early to be sure.

On the flipside, the volume on down days is greater than the juice upward. The bear call pennant proved to be the right call. The price level is a long ways from the top. Down is the trend until something changes. However, volume in general is very high for both market directions. Uncertainty.

The bears find courage in market breadth. It is turning down. The bears also have Dow Theory on their side. All the indexes are going in the same direction, down. Harmony in the lower keys is a trademark of the Mama's and Papa's. Peace.

Alfa Target

                                                                           Two Warnings

Washington: Out first president and founding father expressed three warnings in his farewell address.                          He worried about sectionalism, which is putting local, geographical concerns over                                    national interest. This is not a major problem, but what is is the reality of red and blue                              states. The second warning becomes a prophecy. He feared, "Political Fractionalism."                              This is the rise in power of poltical parties. They could and Evolution says, have                                       undermined our republic. The final warning also becomes a prophecy. Washington did                             not want our nation to have foreign entanglements. He is not resting easy in his grave.

Eisenhower: We need to protect our nation, but the dangers of abuse between our government and the                           industrial/military complex needs to be watched. Another prophecy as the "Deep State"                           undermines our democracy.

Today

We have two great presidents that warned us and yet, we fell into the trap. Remember, it was the two political parties that pushed the lie of "free trade" which ended in outsourcing of our jobs and standard of living. Enter Trump. He is correct in his goal to bring back manufacturing. It will make us more self-sufficient and raise our standard of living. He forgets application. We got into this predicament over time. We cannot flip a switch and have it done over night. Trump needs to target areas. When he sees improvement, then, pick another segment to address. Then again, DOGE has only targeted low hanging fruit. It is sad that we end foreign aid, but reality cannot be denied. We have been living above our means. We have been abusing the privilege that our currency is the world's reserve. If we lose that, we become a third world nation overnight. We need to slash costs.

In every bureaucracy there is waste, fraud and abuse of power. By sun-setting them, we can step back and apply what is good in a new formation when we have the money. With that said, FEMA has been shut down. There were some good parts to the emergency agency. One of them is flood insurance.

What Now?!

There were 4.7 million policies under a program to offer flood insurance because private insurance was either unaffordable or not available. We can thank the Federal Reserve for destroying the purchasing power of our dollar in the cost for flood and all insurance and everything for that matter. Anyway, this translates into $1.7 trillion in liabilities. What will home owners in flood prone areas do? How much will they lose in property value? When there was not enough money to cover disasters, the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) would help. However, their program was short funded. They borrowed from the US Treasury. They owe $22.5 billion.   

There are other related problems like mortgages under Fannie Mae and other government backed mortgages. FEMA has learned many aspects to disasters. This data was passed along to state and local government. It helped in building plans and codes. Remember, no one can get a mortgage in a flood zone without flood insurance. Real estate will take a hit. 

We Suggest

That the federal government offer a national disaster insurance in partnership with any state that will buy-in to the program to help their citizens. The state will offer separate programs for renters and home owners. They will pay 50% of the premium and the federal government pays the other 50%. 

Now

DOGE needs to address the alfa waste basket, the military. They have been over-charging for years with brides, fraud and poor execution. The military gets the biggest part of our budget and they squander the most. You can see the results in every undertaking like the navy's new generation destroyer DDG. It will be $3.4 billion in overrun production. How about the new generation sub, the SSN. It could run $7.2 billion over estimate. How about the Air Force? There new B-21 bomber is way over its estimate and you could mention any F-series jet. They all cost more than projected. 

We Sugest

That in negotiating in military contractors that if they cannot produce what they said that they could that they eat the overrun. No ands, if or buts. Yeah, we know that the military branches want changes after the contract due to tech advancements. However, this reflects more on them with poor vision and planning. They spend money because it was appropiated and not with insight. 

Meanwhile, Market

The big drop will abruptly change course. We see a rally, but volume will dictate whether it is a bounce or the market has settled and digesting the tariff outlook. Ultimately, we see a test of the COVID low around 38,000. If it falls lower, uncertainty will follow...Peace.

Alert! Alert! = The market on Tuesday tried to rally, but reversed course mid-day. This piece is written on Saturday. The last sentence, (If it falls lower, uncertainty will follow) has emerged. There could be another rally attempt, but uncertainty will cause a failure. The stronger trend is down, but there are many resistance points along the path. Patience is the correct avenue.  

Is It Time to Invest in AI?

- Education is simply the soul of  a society as it passes from one generation to another.

- G. K. Chesteron

Talk is Cheap

All the talk, all the buzz centering on AI will find fools seeking easy riches. When you step back and think about progression within society, about the changes through innovation and technology, there is a natural path that shows the impact of that change. Consider the first cars or telephone service? It takes years to refine the product and reduce the costs so it is affordable by ordinary consumers. When those two aspects are achieved, sales within society will reach an inflection point. When that point is pierced, the real impact begins.

AI

It has not done anything other than fraud. We now have pretend characters that sound like the person who is being minicked. The real nuts and bolts is to have a program use the data in its banks to offer new and quicker responses, to find solutions to help humanity. 

At the moment, AI is beginning to find success in a few sectors of society. Keep in mind, that AI is just a version of a faster computer with the hope to create solutions. All the big players are investing. China's, Deep Seek is seeking to do the same thing. The model cannot reason, but it can do many math tasks and code tasks. Like all the big,Western tech firms, China is trying to find the chip with the answer. They have not yet found it. We believe that programmable chips will be the next step.

Gold Rush

Back in 1849 when gold was found in California, the area boomed. Most miners did not get rich. The people who did, never mined for gold. They sold shovels and picks. They sold tents and made a new longer lasting pants, Levi Jeans. My point is if you want to get into AI, buy Microsoft or Google. Follow the chips like Nvidia and Taiwan Semi. It will be less risky and maybe, you'll get lucky? You have to do your homework. Also, in a few years, someone could develop quantum computing and AI will never be mentioned again. 

Timeline

AI has been around for over 15 years. If you fell for the initial push, you took a big loss. The inflection point is still a long ways from reality. However in 2024, headway showed promise. The puzzle starts to assemble as models like ChatGPT, AI co-pilot, etc. emerged. What investors forget is one crucial point, energy and its cost. AI eats like a pig. Companies are trying different approaches. Will Microsoft get permission to restart Thee Mile Reactor for data? The company is already pulling back from investments in Europe. These things take time and a new problem has arisen. The Heathrow Airport fire at its substation. They need a large transformer, but it will take over a year to get a replacement. Transformers have a back-log. Utilities are behind the eight ball, especially in dealing with the grid. 

Pluses

There have been positive impacts in a few fields. The biggest has to be in movies and video games. Although the use of Generative AI is being applied by thieves with fraud, gaming and movies have used the platform to lower costs and the graphics aregettring better and better.

The other industry that stands out is healthcare and education. In healthcare, AI helps with documents. This lowers costs. AI tools are helping surgery and dianostics. Of course, fraud will appear in clinical studies, but the positive is in connecting ideas.

In education, AI can help in language, grammar and writing. We believe that all AI writing should have a disclaimer before any piece. 

Climate

It is in the early stages, but AI can connect data to help in weather forecasting. It can also be used to locate areas where wildfires can happen. We need to thin the threat. Wake up, Sierra Club! It is better to cut some trees than to have them burn. We use the wood to make housing cheaper. We grow new trees. 

Labor and Economy

Some skills can be done by robots. Dear Reader, this is AI. Sadly, AI will eliminate jobs. Government should sponsor repair technicians now, because everything eventually breaks. Estimates say that 25% of low skill work will be lost. If we prepare to repair automation, some of those lost jobs can become quality work.

Current Market

Whatever you decide to do, know this. You do not need AI to read and learn about charting. Last Friday, the charts revealed a bearish pennant pattern. The downtrend will continue. So, study stocks that you like or think will grow with AI because a down market will take everything with it. The INDU could test a low at 40,500. If it does, volume could indicate a further fall? Be patient! ...Peace.

Odds and Ends: March 2025

- We know tariffs are coming in, and all forecasters have tariff inflation affecting core CPI inflation.

- Fed Chair Powell

Last Week...

...after the Federal Reserve announced no change in interest rates, he gave his BS on their thinking. The above tag-line is in sharp contrast to Powell's last byline just weeks before. You may recall that he said, "We don't know what will happen with tariffs, with immigration, with fiscal policy, and with regulatory policy."

Let's tell it like it is - from inflation being transitory to the truth that the import deficits get worse and worse with record setting amounts under the liability column each year. Our central and biggest consumer purchase, home sales is at its lowest point in 30-years. Leynette Zange sees excessive debt in all 3-levels: individual, corporation and government. She concludes that a new system is needed or a hyper-inflationary period will arrive. Another little followed economists and investor, Jack Mallers believes another "Nixon Shock" is on the horizon. Our question? Why doesn't Powell address these questions and the role of King Dollar before another crisis arrives? By the way, Powell suggested inflation is still around and that is the primary reason for no rate change. He even mentioned that the inflation rate exceeds our growth rate. We have been saying just that for the past three years. We called it, "Stealth Inflation" because no one else recognizes that if inflation exceeds your growth, you are in stagflation. Powell never addresses this truth. Bottom line: The roots of the Fed is corrupt. Their track record should have them rebranded as, "Boom and Bust Council."Their existence controls our democratic, economic freedom. We conclude, "End the Fed!"

Meanwhile...

retail continues its slow death with a popular chain, Tex-Mex filing for bankruptcy. Red Robin is closing more locations. They are not alone. Manufacturing shed another 13,000 jobs. Keep in mind, the decline in quality work as a percentage of economic value is under 10%. A healthy economy needs at least 40% share in a domestic market. We have a long way to go. However, the economic slowdown has hit Europe's biggest economy. Siemens and Volkswagen plan to cull jobs. They cite automation. Robots are the new competition. Siemens is laying off 6,000 and Volkswagen is doing away with 7,500. They add that it is possible for the number to climb as high as 35,000 over the next five years. 

In our unpublished book, we say, "All things are connected." In Germany, the slowdown carries over to auto suppliers and related fields. Companies like Bosch, Schaeffler AG and ZF Friedrichshafen are laying off workers. Siemens says that it will devote more resources into EV charging stations. At the moment, Tesla and China dominate the market. Peace. 

So-Called Allies

- Jesus said to his disciples: "You have heard that it was said, You shall love your neighbor and hate your enemy. But I say to you, love your enemies, and pray for those who persecute you."

- Mt 5:43-44.

Most Difficult

The above teaching of the Master is the most difficult. I can understand the logic. We pray that the wax that causes the sin and pain by our enemies will be lifted. They will see the light. However, the Master says that whomever refuses God's word, then wipe their dust from your sandals. 

President Trump's tariffs is the right step for our nation. It has revealed a much larger truth. The media is against Trump even when he does something correct. He is attempting to reignite our manufacturing sector to which will stop the bleeding of our middle class and standard of living. It will turn the pendulum of deficits, lower our national deficit and provide revenues for our government to finally do something for our citizens. The media platforms and their correspondents do not even understand the basics of economics. They just point out problems and never a compliment. If the Democrats had any true values, they would support Trump. They have no real values. With that said, We, at Evolution have learned an important truth about global economics and our so-called allies.

EU

They have coasted for decades. With no worries about defense, the EU has achieved a better standard of living. Way better than the US. They have used the US to dump product to keep their good life going. They forget all the blood that was shed by Americans to keep their freedom. They forgot the Marshall Plan that put them on the road back to prosperity. They know the US is deep in do-do in debt. They know what Trump is trying to do. So,after one little tariff that will cut into their good life, they show their true colors. This is not to say the whole EU is rotten. Finland and Holland have demonstrated actions of a true friend, the rest had better reflect. We, at Evolution like what the President of Finland, Alexander Stubb said in reference to Ukraine: "If there is a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine and Russia violates it like it has done repeatedly, Ukraine gets an auto entry into NATO and article 5." Tell this to Putin and start preparing to back up those words with action. 

Canada

I was out shopping the other day when I discovered another truth about loopholes and tariffs. I went to the Dollar store. By the way, there is nothing for a dollar there anymore with inflation. Anyway, I was hoping that they had a cheaper version of a laundry softener. They did. When I got home, I put on my glasses to read where the product was made. To my surprise, it said imported from Canada. However, there was another line that read, made in China. This is a loophole in tariffs. Chinese producers send product to Canada who exports it to the US. This is why we should put another 50% tariffs on Canada. They value our friendship so little that for a few dollars more (Sorry, Clint) they allow this type of import/export to happen. They are not alone.

Mexico

They have attacked our tomato growers for years. They have used our outsourced manufacturing for years. Their economy is a leach attached like a parasite to grab whatever they can from us. Consider this one aspect: Would you let millions of immigrants cross your border, walk through your nation and help them illegally enter your allies' border? They did. Now, they are inviting China into the frey. They expanded their entry port to accommodate Chinses vessels. They extended their railroad line to take Chinese goods to the Texas border to export under a lie of Mexican goods. It gets worse. Mexico built a commercial park in Jalisco. It is their high-tech center. Chinese tech is using a loophole to build chips and import chips through this location. We need to impose 100% tariffs on Mexico until they decide whether they are our friends or just in it for a buck? There are trade deals and BS. Canada and Mexico have gone corrupt. End NAFTA! Drop the WTO! Let us strive to be self-sufficient.

One More

How abour South Korea? We gave them blood. We gave them the good life and for what? So, the conglomerate, Samsung could sell $44 billion in chips to China? They need to choose. Either you do no business with China or we ban you from the US. Period! By the way, S.Korea, you had better start rebuilding your defense. One good thing that I will say about some of their companies. They have built their plants in the US. We need to reaccess and to revaluate who are our true friends because it is very difficult to love our enemies.  Peace.