At one time in my life I would never have recommended what I am about to suggest to you, dear reader, pick the pocket of someone else. However, if you believe in karma, you will have no trouble at all. The mark is Warren Buffett.
Why?
Because he is a hypocrite. Like many rich people, he will say all the right things in public, but his private actions are just the opposite. The man loves to be the center of attention and there is nothing wrong with that except when Warren has nothing to say, he will talk about things that he doesn't do, but offers advice to do these things. He recently backed President Obama's call to raise taxes on the rich and stated that he thought that workers in America needed a raise, especially those on the lower earning ladder. I have just made a few accusations, here is the basis of those claims.
Burlington Railway
He bought it, but the workers feared that he would cut hours, benefits and jobs. He publically reassured them that he only had positive ideas for growth. All would be well.
One year into ownership, he lobbied for Congress to permit engines and transport cars to be able to go into Mexico where he would center his repairs, thus killing jobs, hours and benefits for American workers. This action would also weaken the union which is his ultimate purpose.
Housing
He stated that renting is the better choice because a mortgage is based on interest rates that are higher than inflation, which means that you are over-paying for shelter.
Derivatives
He once said, "that derivatives are weapons of mass financial destruction." I happen to agree with that statement. I feel that this category of financial insurance needs to be regulated to the point that each party has the reserves to enter into the agreement. To put that into perspective, no one has any idea how much leverage is at stake in this market. Consider this: if an alien came to earth and wanted to buy it, the total GDP of all the plant's economies totals around $64T and the derivative market already exceeds $500T. No company can repay the damage if a chain reaction of bad events happen. This is why it is a weapon of mass destruction. By the way, Warren now uses them.
Do you need anymore reasons to take advantage of this rich boy? If there ever was a sure thing, this is it.
Earning Season
is here on Wall St. Warren's company trades under the stock symbol, BRK/B. His two biggest holdings are Coca Cola and IBM. Both of these companies have reported declines in earnings and their stock prices have declined severely. It is estimated that Warren lost over $2.5b last week due to the two companies poor earnings. This is what I suggest: His stock is high and trades around $137 to $139 a share. I can't afford those prices, but an option is much cheaper. I would buy the next quarter in time because the recent price action won't be reflected in this quarter's report. I see his stock falling to around $120 per share which would make a nice Christmas present. Don't worry about Warren. His stock will eventually go back up and as of 2013, he was estimated to be worth over $58.5b. He can afford to give us all something and clear up his karma. Peace.
Thursday, October 23, 2014
Thursday, October 16, 2014
US Needs the Number One Draft Pick
After you read the facts below there is only one conclusion, we need a leader who is not from either of the two main political parties. This person would stand up with the people, be from the people and most importantly, for the people to end the lie of free trade.
Facts:
According to the IMF, China is now the number one world economy in terms of purchasing power. The Chinese worker may make less money on a hourly or yearly basis, but can buy more for their dollar as compared to anywhere else. We outsourced both our jobs and factories to them and as a result, consider the following.
*China leads the world in exports.
*this category to me is a negative, however it is listed as a positive. Chinese companies have more total debt than US or anyone. The thinking must be if you can borrow more, you can invest more, but I see this as a house built on sand.
*The US sold to China $121b in trade. China sold to us, $440b. This is how you develop a national deficit. By the way our leading component to China was Trash for recycling while they sold us computer equipment. This trade imbalance is what I have been writing about as our structural economic problem. We don't protect workers or industries while China and everyone else does.
*China is the world leader in manufactured goods.
*China is the largest new car market.
*China has the most foreign currency reserves.
*China imports the most gold, while at the same time is the worlds largest gold producer. By the way, they are looking to control this commodity.
*In addition, China produces more doctoral degrees in engineering than the US.
*China has the fastest train and best high speed rail network.
*It spends on infrastructure too. It uses more cement than the entire world combined.
*Under alternative energy, China is the number one producer of wind and solar power which was another American invention like the television to which neither political parties encouraged or defended.
Sadly, Robert Fogel of the University of Chicago projects that the Chinese economy will be 3x larger than the US by 2040. We can trace our decline from the anti-union movement with the biggest effects coming from trade agreements like NAFTA. Here is a quick recap of the so-called partnership.
*845,000 workers receive assistance under the Trade Agreement because they lost their jobs or factories were relocated. Of course, this adds to our national deficit.
*this trickles down and around to other jobs, so the total effect is closer to two million lost jobs except those people don't get assistance.
*our illegals grew faster after the agreement. See TWO-WAY STREET
*the year before the agreement we had a trade surplus with Mexico. Last year a trade deficit of $177b. Please note that Canada is included in that figure.
*Since the GM bailout, 70% of GMs cars have been built outside the US, mainly in Mexico.
*Since 2001 the US has lost more than 56,000 manufacturing facilities. Those were good paying jobs and the recovery gave us this job line, "Would you like fries with that?"
Sadly, back in 1950, 80%of ALL men had a job in the US. Today, 59%. This helps to explain why one in five kids are in poverty and 47 million collect food stamps. According to Alan Binder of Princeton, 40 million more jobs will be lost in the next 20 years. Knowing these results Obama is still pushing for the Trans-Pacific Partnership. A Republican will do the same thing, just call it something else.
By the way these deals are a
Two-Way Street
They bring a currency inflation to the other nation because we do subsidize certain industries like agriculture. I'm not against help to any industry or anything that helps workers. I'm just saying that these deals hurt ordinary workers everywhere. In Mexico corn farmers were put out of business and jobs were lost. This led to our illegals. See how things are connected. Mexican citizens suffered 38% devaluation in their purchasing power. The same effects happened with CAFTA too. Our government policies of so-called free trade ends up giving all of us the SHAFTa!
Maybe we cannot protect every job category or industry, but we need to turn the pendulum back to at least, protect what is left of our manufacturing and good quality jobs. Manufacturing is down to under 9% and shrinking. If we could just cut our trade imbalance by a half, we could create 5 million jobs to which means less kids on poverty with a hope for a future. Blame both political parties. We need a new voice, one that will represent the people and end the root cause of all evil - money. This leads to the culprit of our lost in purchasing power and standard of living-the FED. End the Fed!
Facts:
According to the IMF, China is now the number one world economy in terms of purchasing power. The Chinese worker may make less money on a hourly or yearly basis, but can buy more for their dollar as compared to anywhere else. We outsourced both our jobs and factories to them and as a result, consider the following.
*China leads the world in exports.
*this category to me is a negative, however it is listed as a positive. Chinese companies have more total debt than US or anyone. The thinking must be if you can borrow more, you can invest more, but I see this as a house built on sand.
*The US sold to China $121b in trade. China sold to us, $440b. This is how you develop a national deficit. By the way our leading component to China was Trash for recycling while they sold us computer equipment. This trade imbalance is what I have been writing about as our structural economic problem. We don't protect workers or industries while China and everyone else does.
*China is the world leader in manufactured goods.
*China is the largest new car market.
*China has the most foreign currency reserves.
*China imports the most gold, while at the same time is the worlds largest gold producer. By the way, they are looking to control this commodity.
*In addition, China produces more doctoral degrees in engineering than the US.
*China has the fastest train and best high speed rail network.
*It spends on infrastructure too. It uses more cement than the entire world combined.
*Under alternative energy, China is the number one producer of wind and solar power which was another American invention like the television to which neither political parties encouraged or defended.
Sadly, Robert Fogel of the University of Chicago projects that the Chinese economy will be 3x larger than the US by 2040. We can trace our decline from the anti-union movement with the biggest effects coming from trade agreements like NAFTA. Here is a quick recap of the so-called partnership.
*845,000 workers receive assistance under the Trade Agreement because they lost their jobs or factories were relocated. Of course, this adds to our national deficit.
*this trickles down and around to other jobs, so the total effect is closer to two million lost jobs except those people don't get assistance.
*our illegals grew faster after the agreement. See TWO-WAY STREET
*the year before the agreement we had a trade surplus with Mexico. Last year a trade deficit of $177b. Please note that Canada is included in that figure.
*Since the GM bailout, 70% of GMs cars have been built outside the US, mainly in Mexico.
*Since 2001 the US has lost more than 56,000 manufacturing facilities. Those were good paying jobs and the recovery gave us this job line, "Would you like fries with that?"
Sadly, back in 1950, 80%of ALL men had a job in the US. Today, 59%. This helps to explain why one in five kids are in poverty and 47 million collect food stamps. According to Alan Binder of Princeton, 40 million more jobs will be lost in the next 20 years. Knowing these results Obama is still pushing for the Trans-Pacific Partnership. A Republican will do the same thing, just call it something else.
By the way these deals are a
Two-Way Street
They bring a currency inflation to the other nation because we do subsidize certain industries like agriculture. I'm not against help to any industry or anything that helps workers. I'm just saying that these deals hurt ordinary workers everywhere. In Mexico corn farmers were put out of business and jobs were lost. This led to our illegals. See how things are connected. Mexican citizens suffered 38% devaluation in their purchasing power. The same effects happened with CAFTA too. Our government policies of so-called free trade ends up giving all of us the SHAFTa!
Maybe we cannot protect every job category or industry, but we need to turn the pendulum back to at least, protect what is left of our manufacturing and good quality jobs. Manufacturing is down to under 9% and shrinking. If we could just cut our trade imbalance by a half, we could create 5 million jobs to which means less kids on poverty with a hope for a future. Blame both political parties. We need a new voice, one that will represent the people and end the root cause of all evil - money. This leads to the culprit of our lost in purchasing power and standard of living-the FED. End the Fed!
Thursday, October 9, 2014
Dow Up 200, Down 200=?
If you step back and just reflect on the numbers, the stock market makes no sense. Why would so many buy to push prices up, and the next day, so many sell to lower prices? It would behoove one to remember the market adage, "to take the most amount of money from the most amount of people in the shortest amount of time."
Big Picture
This is why I take the big picture approach, but use charting to make trades. The most important word in that sentence is "trades." Investing for life in a forever stock is just a market ploy. Nothing lasts. Always use a stop on trades. Know where you would like to enter and exit before you make your first move. With that said and a guideline, here is how I see the market in the near term.
There is one indicator that both fundamental and technical traders both use, the Dollar. Price action on the dollar is affected by many aspects from the Fed all the ways down to Main St. How much disposal dollars do ordinary citizens have? Keep in mind that commodities are still priced in dollars. So, when the value of the dollar is up, people have more disposable money and conversely when it is down, less to spend.
If you haven't noticed, the dollar has risen from .79 cents to over .86 cents. This is huge. The market does not like a strong dollar, not that .86 cents is strong, but any uptrend hurts S & P 500 companies that have outsourced because those foreign dollars are worth less. The consumer benefits, and he has also become a smart shopper. He wants discounts and this Christmas shopping season will demonstrate this change in consumer attitudes. Retail will produce sales, but not profits as margins shrink.
These type of inflection points are nothing new for the market. During the early 70s, oil prices were low. A gallon of gas only cost .31 cents. Yes, that is true. OPEC was suffering from inflation without getting higher prices for their oil. In addition, politics entered the equation. OPEC cut production. Prices doubled. That was then, this is now.
China
is the elephant in the room. Their government decrees that GDP should grow at 7.5%, however it is not. The same leaders thought that domestic growth would pick up and continue the target level. It has not, and they are definitely in a housing bubble. What to do? The speculation is a devaluing of the Yuan. This will spur exports, regardless of the international fall out with other currencies. If this happens, the dollar will get even stronger.
EU
is under duress, but the euro should bounce from the recent lows up to 130, however at that point, I see it resuming its fall, giving yet more strength to the dollar. So, the dollar will retrace a little and then, rise to around .89 cents. It could go higher.
What It Means?
As stated above the market hates a strong dollar even though it is best for the consumer. The small cap index has already dropped 10% and if the Dow would correlate to the Russell Index that means the dow would sink to around 15,000. In addition I have some fundamental reasons why this downtrend will continue.
Population
For society to produce, it needs to create demand. In America today and every day for the next sixteen years, 10,000 baby boomers are subtracting by collecting from Social Security. You hear about job growth and the recovery to the tune of 200,000 every month this year. It sounds impressive until you understand this important aspect. During the recovery period our population has grown by 14 million, maybe more. No one knows for sure with all the illegals. Therefore, we create 1.6 million jobs, but 12.4 million people need jobs. We are way, way short and that is why long-term unemployment is still 12 million. Not to mention the 4.6 million who are collecting on disability which is another part of social security or the 47 million collecting food stamps and adding all this together the working population is at a decades low of 62% which means 38% of the population is not contributing. Again, our population is well over 300 million and 38% of it is unemployed and that, is a lot of people not to mention that within the employed there is a record number of part time workers. The bottom line is disposal income is shrinking as our economy produces less.
QE
is suppose to end this month and even though interest rates are at historical lows, the perception will be to the negative bias. Beside controlling short term rates the Federal Reserve released their Survey of Consumer Finances(SCF). It reveals that the middle class has suffered both low wage growth and net asset losses during the so-called recovery. Wages for them are down 12% and net worth by 38% in the last six years. Keep in mind that the CPI used to adjust those results is skewed. If it included food and energy the results would be worse. This is the structure within our economy and all the talk is just that, talk. These bipolar swings will continue. It is the market telling you that a change is coming like dark clouds before a storm.
One last thought. Gold has increased in tonnage on average by 1.5% since 2002. Fiat money by central bankers has multiplied from a low in Japan of 8.4% to all the rest with double digit figures: US Fed grew money supply by 16.9%, Bank of England by 20.5% and China by another 20.7%. So, which is the rarest? Which has retained its value? Which is why I say, End the Fed!
Big Picture
This is why I take the big picture approach, but use charting to make trades. The most important word in that sentence is "trades." Investing for life in a forever stock is just a market ploy. Nothing lasts. Always use a stop on trades. Know where you would like to enter and exit before you make your first move. With that said and a guideline, here is how I see the market in the near term.
There is one indicator that both fundamental and technical traders both use, the Dollar. Price action on the dollar is affected by many aspects from the Fed all the ways down to Main St. How much disposal dollars do ordinary citizens have? Keep in mind that commodities are still priced in dollars. So, when the value of the dollar is up, people have more disposable money and conversely when it is down, less to spend.
If you haven't noticed, the dollar has risen from .79 cents to over .86 cents. This is huge. The market does not like a strong dollar, not that .86 cents is strong, but any uptrend hurts S & P 500 companies that have outsourced because those foreign dollars are worth less. The consumer benefits, and he has also become a smart shopper. He wants discounts and this Christmas shopping season will demonstrate this change in consumer attitudes. Retail will produce sales, but not profits as margins shrink.
These type of inflection points are nothing new for the market. During the early 70s, oil prices were low. A gallon of gas only cost .31 cents. Yes, that is true. OPEC was suffering from inflation without getting higher prices for their oil. In addition, politics entered the equation. OPEC cut production. Prices doubled. That was then, this is now.
China
is the elephant in the room. Their government decrees that GDP should grow at 7.5%, however it is not. The same leaders thought that domestic growth would pick up and continue the target level. It has not, and they are definitely in a housing bubble. What to do? The speculation is a devaluing of the Yuan. This will spur exports, regardless of the international fall out with other currencies. If this happens, the dollar will get even stronger.
EU
is under duress, but the euro should bounce from the recent lows up to 130, however at that point, I see it resuming its fall, giving yet more strength to the dollar. So, the dollar will retrace a little and then, rise to around .89 cents. It could go higher.
What It Means?
As stated above the market hates a strong dollar even though it is best for the consumer. The small cap index has already dropped 10% and if the Dow would correlate to the Russell Index that means the dow would sink to around 15,000. In addition I have some fundamental reasons why this downtrend will continue.
Population
For society to produce, it needs to create demand. In America today and every day for the next sixteen years, 10,000 baby boomers are subtracting by collecting from Social Security. You hear about job growth and the recovery to the tune of 200,000 every month this year. It sounds impressive until you understand this important aspect. During the recovery period our population has grown by 14 million, maybe more. No one knows for sure with all the illegals. Therefore, we create 1.6 million jobs, but 12.4 million people need jobs. We are way, way short and that is why long-term unemployment is still 12 million. Not to mention the 4.6 million who are collecting on disability which is another part of social security or the 47 million collecting food stamps and adding all this together the working population is at a decades low of 62% which means 38% of the population is not contributing. Again, our population is well over 300 million and 38% of it is unemployed and that, is a lot of people not to mention that within the employed there is a record number of part time workers. The bottom line is disposal income is shrinking as our economy produces less.
QE
is suppose to end this month and even though interest rates are at historical lows, the perception will be to the negative bias. Beside controlling short term rates the Federal Reserve released their Survey of Consumer Finances(SCF). It reveals that the middle class has suffered both low wage growth and net asset losses during the so-called recovery. Wages for them are down 12% and net worth by 38% in the last six years. Keep in mind that the CPI used to adjust those results is skewed. If it included food and energy the results would be worse. This is the structure within our economy and all the talk is just that, talk. These bipolar swings will continue. It is the market telling you that a change is coming like dark clouds before a storm.
One last thought. Gold has increased in tonnage on average by 1.5% since 2002. Fiat money by central bankers has multiplied from a low in Japan of 8.4% to all the rest with double digit figures: US Fed grew money supply by 16.9%, Bank of England by 20.5% and China by another 20.7%. So, which is the rarest? Which has retained its value? Which is why I say, End the Fed!
Thursday, October 2, 2014
Ebola: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
The Ugly
Just as in the classic movie, we begin with the Ugly. At present there are 7,178 infections and 3,338 have died from the Ebola virus. Almost all the cases in this outbreak have been in the neighboring countries of West Africa: Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
No Cure
for this virus and like HIV, the treatment is cocktails of medicine that allows the patient to recover, but the virus will always be within.
Ebola can enter the body through mucus membranes of eyes, nose, ears and mouth. I have heard doctors say that you cannot get Ebola from someone who has not displayed the symptoms or from coughing and sneezing. This sounds like a lie because doctors do not know what causes Ebola, how it started and very little on how it transfers from one to another. Coughing and sneezing emit spit which can penetrate your eyes, nose, ears and mouth. So much for truth, although I understand the doctors are trying to squelch fear. This is one reason why travel bans have not been put in place. Doctors fear that potential victims would seek other ways to leave their infected area and escape over a border. That would cause a possible epidemic.
Projections
The continuation of the outbreak in numbers are staggering. It is estimated that at the present pace, and if efforts to contain are not successful, we are looking at a half-million infections by the end of January 2015. If it gets to that point, we will have a serious epidemic on our hands.
The Bad
The present numbers are not correct as there are unreported and under-researched possible infections out there. It has spread to the US and probably, will soon hit Europe, Asia and elsewhere.
The first treated in the US were two missionary helpers, Dr. Brantley and Nancy Writebol. The doctor walked into the hospital at Emory University because he knew that they had the experience to help. Their medical center set up an Ebola section 12 years ago in another outbreak. He received a serum called, ZMAPP. This is not a clinical drug, but it has been used with some success in Africa. He recovered.
Since then, another doctor, Rick Sacra who also volunteered in Africa got infected. He entered a hospital in Colorado because it too had experience with Ebola. He received some of Dr. Brantley's blood as part of his recovery.
Thomas Duncan is the first Ebola patient to develop the virus within our border. This is not exactly accurate. He left Liberia because he knew that he helped a patient with Ebola and maybe he wanted to get the best treatment possible. He arrived on September 20th and fell sick on the 24th. He visited a Dallas hospital on the 26th. He was released. Two days later, an ambulance was needed to return him there. He is now under treatment, however there are 19 other people being monitored because they have had contact with him. Of this number five are children.
Keep in mind that people have been treated outside of Africa before, as far back as 1994. At that time a researcher fell ill. He flew to Switzerland for help. There have been others who were treated in Spain, France and UK.
There are twelve other people in the US who are being evaluated as possible Ebola infections.
The Good
The role played by big Clint is residing in the only two drugs which are permitted by the FDA: ZMAPP and TKM-ebola.
The first, believe it or not was financed by the Department of Defense back in 2002. It is now a private company in San Diego.
I do not like to suggest stocks because I feel terrible if I am wrong. However, in this case, I am recommending Tekmira(TKMR). It is the maker of TKM-ebola. The medicine is based on the 2006 Nobel Prize in medicine by Andrew Fire and Craig Mello. They used RNAi, which is a field inhibitor with interference therapeutics which utilize the bodies own natural processes to defend itself from infection. A safe entry would be where the gap on the 30th of September begins, and I would wait until it closes before buying.
TKM-ebola is in clinical study. It was used on ebola infected monkey's and they recovered.
Some patients have been given this drug with most surviving. However, this was done outside of the clinical study in Africa for desperate patients.
The World Trust has given Tekmira a grant to develop more medicine and they will be using it in West Africa.
Finally, Thomas Duncan and the other people that are being monitored will have an answer in 21 days which in the past has shown whether a patient will recover or not.
There is no more ZMAPP available. It is made by Leaf Biopharmaceutical. One other technique will be used, the blood of Dr. Brantley or Dr. Sacra, but this is very limited.
The international community, WHO, and the US have all pledged help, but action speaks louder than words or the only words we will hear is, "Oh, no! Not me!"
I do have a position in TKMR.
Just as in the classic movie, we begin with the Ugly. At present there are 7,178 infections and 3,338 have died from the Ebola virus. Almost all the cases in this outbreak have been in the neighboring countries of West Africa: Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
No Cure
for this virus and like HIV, the treatment is cocktails of medicine that allows the patient to recover, but the virus will always be within.
Ebola can enter the body through mucus membranes of eyes, nose, ears and mouth. I have heard doctors say that you cannot get Ebola from someone who has not displayed the symptoms or from coughing and sneezing. This sounds like a lie because doctors do not know what causes Ebola, how it started and very little on how it transfers from one to another. Coughing and sneezing emit spit which can penetrate your eyes, nose, ears and mouth. So much for truth, although I understand the doctors are trying to squelch fear. This is one reason why travel bans have not been put in place. Doctors fear that potential victims would seek other ways to leave their infected area and escape over a border. That would cause a possible epidemic.
Projections
The continuation of the outbreak in numbers are staggering. It is estimated that at the present pace, and if efforts to contain are not successful, we are looking at a half-million infections by the end of January 2015. If it gets to that point, we will have a serious epidemic on our hands.
The Bad
The present numbers are not correct as there are unreported and under-researched possible infections out there. It has spread to the US and probably, will soon hit Europe, Asia and elsewhere.
The first treated in the US were two missionary helpers, Dr. Brantley and Nancy Writebol. The doctor walked into the hospital at Emory University because he knew that they had the experience to help. Their medical center set up an Ebola section 12 years ago in another outbreak. He received a serum called, ZMAPP. This is not a clinical drug, but it has been used with some success in Africa. He recovered.
Since then, another doctor, Rick Sacra who also volunteered in Africa got infected. He entered a hospital in Colorado because it too had experience with Ebola. He received some of Dr. Brantley's blood as part of his recovery.
Thomas Duncan is the first Ebola patient to develop the virus within our border. This is not exactly accurate. He left Liberia because he knew that he helped a patient with Ebola and maybe he wanted to get the best treatment possible. He arrived on September 20th and fell sick on the 24th. He visited a Dallas hospital on the 26th. He was released. Two days later, an ambulance was needed to return him there. He is now under treatment, however there are 19 other people being monitored because they have had contact with him. Of this number five are children.
Keep in mind that people have been treated outside of Africa before, as far back as 1994. At that time a researcher fell ill. He flew to Switzerland for help. There have been others who were treated in Spain, France and UK.
There are twelve other people in the US who are being evaluated as possible Ebola infections.
The Good
The role played by big Clint is residing in the only two drugs which are permitted by the FDA: ZMAPP and TKM-ebola.
The first, believe it or not was financed by the Department of Defense back in 2002. It is now a private company in San Diego.
I do not like to suggest stocks because I feel terrible if I am wrong. However, in this case, I am recommending Tekmira(TKMR). It is the maker of TKM-ebola. The medicine is based on the 2006 Nobel Prize in medicine by Andrew Fire and Craig Mello. They used RNAi, which is a field inhibitor with interference therapeutics which utilize the bodies own natural processes to defend itself from infection. A safe entry would be where the gap on the 30th of September begins, and I would wait until it closes before buying.
TKM-ebola is in clinical study. It was used on ebola infected monkey's and they recovered.
Some patients have been given this drug with most surviving. However, this was done outside of the clinical study in Africa for desperate patients.
The World Trust has given Tekmira a grant to develop more medicine and they will be using it in West Africa.
Finally, Thomas Duncan and the other people that are being monitored will have an answer in 21 days which in the past has shown whether a patient will recover or not.
There is no more ZMAPP available. It is made by Leaf Biopharmaceutical. One other technique will be used, the blood of Dr. Brantley or Dr. Sacra, but this is very limited.
The international community, WHO, and the US have all pledged help, but action speaks louder than words or the only words we will hear is, "Oh, no! Not me!"
I do have a position in TKMR.
Thursday, September 25, 2014
More $igns for Confirmation
The voices of descent are few and far in between on the visual media. I still maintain that the market is overvalued and up only due to the printing press of the Federal Reserve and at some point, the truth of the structural damages to our economy by both political parties and the Fed for the last fifty years will surface. The above statement does not mean that I am a bear all the time. I only stress that point at what I see as critical points, reflection points. These are times when if the correct changes were made to our economy we could recover. The deepening hole created by the above factors is fast coming to boiling point and another crisis will be on our economy and lives.
Two weeks ago, I revealed my deepest indicator which is the long-term up trend line of the Dow meeting the up trend from the market's low in 2009. One of these days I'll know how to "pin" a chart which will give you the visual. As for now, you can always go to Big Charts.com and see for yourself. These two points are intersecting. This means the market will reveal its next move very shortly. Generally, a rising trend line that forms a triangle, such as we now have, results in a big downward movement. This is the first $-sign.
Second Opinion
There are other indicators to which they are signaling red flags which taking together with the above is a way that the market is telling you a change is in the air.
* Money is exiting from US equity funds. According to a report by Investment Company Institute, $32 billion from long-term stock mutual funds. This redemption can cause a chain reaction and $32 billion is a lot of money. Behind the scene short-term borrowing can hide the problem.
* Commerce Department released its latest info on durable goods. These are business orders for long lasting goods like commercial planes. It fell by a "record" 18.2% in August. The bulls will counter this report by reminding everyone that the previous release also was a "record" and up 22.5% in July. What they won't mention is the fact that orders fell an astonishing 74.3%. Try spinning that with some "Bull."
* According to a report by Bloomberg, 47% of NASDAQ stocks have declined 20% or more in the last 12 months. This is bear territory. In addition, the same ratio of declines effect the big board too. The number of stocks on the NYSE above their 200 day moving average is declining to almost half.
* Finally, and this is the second biggest indicator and red flag. The Barclays IShare 20 year Treasury Bond(TLT) has been flat since 2002 with the temporary spikes for the 2008 crisis. It has formed a head and shoulders pattern. The left neckline was set in July of 2011. The head or peak in July of 2012 and the right neckline in April of 2013. It gets worse because it is moving toward the right neckline and if it pierces it at around 120, rates will rise!
Correction
If nothing else, a correction will occur. The market has had short down moves only to rise to a new record highs, but when you play with fire, you eventually get burned. The above is fuel for the fire.
Maybe if it is a four alarm blaze, we can look to blame the real culprit, the Fed which I may remind you that money is the root of all evil. End the Fed!
Two weeks ago, I revealed my deepest indicator which is the long-term up trend line of the Dow meeting the up trend from the market's low in 2009. One of these days I'll know how to "pin" a chart which will give you the visual. As for now, you can always go to Big Charts.com and see for yourself. These two points are intersecting. This means the market will reveal its next move very shortly. Generally, a rising trend line that forms a triangle, such as we now have, results in a big downward movement. This is the first $-sign.
Second Opinion
There are other indicators to which they are signaling red flags which taking together with the above is a way that the market is telling you a change is in the air.
* Money is exiting from US equity funds. According to a report by Investment Company Institute, $32 billion from long-term stock mutual funds. This redemption can cause a chain reaction and $32 billion is a lot of money. Behind the scene short-term borrowing can hide the problem.
* Commerce Department released its latest info on durable goods. These are business orders for long lasting goods like commercial planes. It fell by a "record" 18.2% in August. The bulls will counter this report by reminding everyone that the previous release also was a "record" and up 22.5% in July. What they won't mention is the fact that orders fell an astonishing 74.3%. Try spinning that with some "Bull."
* According to a report by Bloomberg, 47% of NASDAQ stocks have declined 20% or more in the last 12 months. This is bear territory. In addition, the same ratio of declines effect the big board too. The number of stocks on the NYSE above their 200 day moving average is declining to almost half.
* Finally, and this is the second biggest indicator and red flag. The Barclays IShare 20 year Treasury Bond(TLT) has been flat since 2002 with the temporary spikes for the 2008 crisis. It has formed a head and shoulders pattern. The left neckline was set in July of 2011. The head or peak in July of 2012 and the right neckline in April of 2013. It gets worse because it is moving toward the right neckline and if it pierces it at around 120, rates will rise!
Correction
If nothing else, a correction will occur. The market has had short down moves only to rise to a new record highs, but when you play with fire, you eventually get burned. The above is fuel for the fire.
Maybe if it is a four alarm blaze, we can look to blame the real culprit, the Fed which I may remind you that money is the root of all evil. End the Fed!
Thursday, September 18, 2014
IPhone 6=Sucker List
"The new phone is out!" "It's got a bigger screen, sleek design, and you can choose color options."
- Ad Media
"Stupid is as stupid does"
- Forrest Gump
People, you need to get off this stupid train. Wake up! Get out of your funk! You are being led like sheep and phone manufacturers are clipping your wallet every other year, not to mention your monthly service bill.
Deja Vu
I have seen this before as a selling technique in many areas of our economy from automobiles to the record industry. Executives use you to develop their product. They no longer use testing and research labs. You are the lab!
People, it is just a phone and in that aspect, not very good. Consider the original from Ma Bell. You never lost a connection, the product lasted a lifetime and if some pain-in-the-ass called you during dinner to sell you a subscription to some useless timeshare in the middle of no where, you could have the pleasure to bang the phone against the wall as hard as you could, so the caller on the other end could feel your pain. Now, that was an app!
Debate
You can't do or say that about any of the above with todays product.
*Yes, it has internet....but it strains your eyes.
*Yes, you can listen to music anywhere with your earplugs....but that damages your ears.
*Yes, you can now pay bills with your phone, buy things and more....until someone hacks it, steals all your money or worse, identity.
*Yes, you can do email...yeah, you get to do work that follows you everywhere you go all day long.
*Yes, you can use it as a planner, see movies, get directions, and so much more.
No argument there. The technology is great....but the question of cancer with more powerful phones has never been truly answered.
Question
If, after you purchased your first smart phone, why do you need another one?
Answer
Because the product, the phone itself was not perfected. The CEOs knew it had kinks, but why wait? Why hold production? Why lose profits? So, they sell what they had to you, dear reader. Then, like now, they will add new apps to check how many calories you "walked off" during your workout. In two years the new phone will read the calorie intake from the menu of your local restaurant and the pre-order will let the CEO how many phones he will manufacture before they add the next app in the IPhone 10.
Deja Vu Again
I grew up with the same executive thinking in the record industry. We use to have albums and signal called a forty-five. This lasted until new technology gave executives the 8-track.They, then sold the old songs on this new device. Then, as technology advanced, they switched to the cassette and this gave executives a new form to sell the old songs in this new system. Finally, it evolved to disks and yes again, executives put the old songs on the new delivery system.
Hey, those guys learned from the auto execs in the fifties. Even though GM had over 50% market share in those days, the need for greed held priority. Executives came up with the idea of "planned obsolescence." This means that they knew and planned for their product to break down after a period of time, so the consumer would have to make a new purchase. Then, CEOs cut cost by cutting engineering. They relied upon advertising. The "pin stripe" was their greatest innovation. Putting stripes on a car made them look cool and unique. So, instead of improving quality, executives sold design with a new stripe. No wonder the Japanese and German car manufacturers were able to take market share from US builders.
People, can you see my point? Sorry, about the rant, but you got a phone. You don't need a new one. Don't get caught up with the Joneses' who purchased a new gadget. Save your money for something that you truly need or desire.
Peace...Love.
- Ad Media
"Stupid is as stupid does"
- Forrest Gump
People, you need to get off this stupid train. Wake up! Get out of your funk! You are being led like sheep and phone manufacturers are clipping your wallet every other year, not to mention your monthly service bill.
Deja Vu
I have seen this before as a selling technique in many areas of our economy from automobiles to the record industry. Executives use you to develop their product. They no longer use testing and research labs. You are the lab!
People, it is just a phone and in that aspect, not very good. Consider the original from Ma Bell. You never lost a connection, the product lasted a lifetime and if some pain-in-the-ass called you during dinner to sell you a subscription to some useless timeshare in the middle of no where, you could have the pleasure to bang the phone against the wall as hard as you could, so the caller on the other end could feel your pain. Now, that was an app!
Debate
You can't do or say that about any of the above with todays product.
*Yes, it has internet....but it strains your eyes.
*Yes, you can listen to music anywhere with your earplugs....but that damages your ears.
*Yes, you can now pay bills with your phone, buy things and more....until someone hacks it, steals all your money or worse, identity.
*Yes, you can do email...yeah, you get to do work that follows you everywhere you go all day long.
*Yes, you can use it as a planner, see movies, get directions, and so much more.
No argument there. The technology is great....but the question of cancer with more powerful phones has never been truly answered.
Question
If, after you purchased your first smart phone, why do you need another one?
Answer
Because the product, the phone itself was not perfected. The CEOs knew it had kinks, but why wait? Why hold production? Why lose profits? So, they sell what they had to you, dear reader. Then, like now, they will add new apps to check how many calories you "walked off" during your workout. In two years the new phone will read the calorie intake from the menu of your local restaurant and the pre-order will let the CEO how many phones he will manufacture before they add the next app in the IPhone 10.
Deja Vu Again
I grew up with the same executive thinking in the record industry. We use to have albums and signal called a forty-five. This lasted until new technology gave executives the 8-track.They, then sold the old songs on this new device. Then, as technology advanced, they switched to the cassette and this gave executives a new form to sell the old songs in this new system. Finally, it evolved to disks and yes again, executives put the old songs on the new delivery system.
Hey, those guys learned from the auto execs in the fifties. Even though GM had over 50% market share in those days, the need for greed held priority. Executives came up with the idea of "planned obsolescence." This means that they knew and planned for their product to break down after a period of time, so the consumer would have to make a new purchase. Then, CEOs cut cost by cutting engineering. They relied upon advertising. The "pin stripe" was their greatest innovation. Putting stripes on a car made them look cool and unique. So, instead of improving quality, executives sold design with a new stripe. No wonder the Japanese and German car manufacturers were able to take market share from US builders.
People, can you see my point? Sorry, about the rant, but you got a phone. You don't need a new one. Don't get caught up with the Joneses' who purchased a new gadget. Save your money for something that you truly need or desire.
Peace...Love.
Thursday, September 11, 2014
This Is The $ign
When all is said and done, there are only two classes of stock investors. The leading school throughout history has been the fundamentalist. They rely upon basic knowledge concerning the prospect of a product. Keep in mind that all products are a result of agriculture or mining. Then, they utilize the stats of a market. This investor understands the demand, keeps a breast on transportation, current affairs that pertain to the buyer of the product, weather and all aspects that are relevant to sales.
The other school are the people who use charts. They study price action, support and resistance, cycles and season of the year. They don't even have to know the name of a company because they feel that all the information that they see on the charts is included. This is what determines whether they buy or sell.
The fundamentalist call these people voodoo doctors, but these are the people who make the most money and do it on a consistent basis. Under this light, I study. This is what
I $ee
The market has been going higher and higher like Jackie Wilson's great song, Lately, it has been choppy. Fundamentalist, remember this: More demand, higher price. Less demand, lower price. The volume is the lowest in twenty years, but in the short down turns, volume explodes. This is a tell, but the charts are screaming this...
Trend Line
If you draw a trend line in the upper price range of the Dow Index, which was the first American use of a chart school, go back 15 years to the year 2000. Don't worry about the gaps or the drop in the market like in 2001, 2007-09, but just connect the line along the top and you will see a market that trends higher in price. Wait! We are not done. Now, draw another line from the low of the market in March of 2009. Keep this line connecting all the lows in the market, right up to today. You will see a strong resistance and support, going higher and higher, love that Jackie Wilson. So, you might conclude that the market is going north, but you might be jumping the gun, Kemosabe. You see, the two lines are now intersecting. They are forming a point that looks like an ascending triangle. Under chart school thinking, this means a decisive stock market action will soon follow. In most cases, an ascending triangle heads SOUTH! Pay attention to support and resistance levels. You are warned. Be ready!
China Explosion
I have reminded you, dear reader of the potential housing bust in China and after this revelation, the bomb bay doors are open and the ticking time bomb is on its way. Chinese home builders are in a slump. This is how they are selling. In one sense I love this idea because it gives individuals a chance to grow their hard working savings, but the expression "dumb money" clouds my mind. Individual Chinese people are pooling their money in a crowd funding network called, Tuandai. This is the ultimate speculation. The crowd funding buys expensive properties to flip in the market and then, they split the proceeds. Don't they realize that they are becoming the last buyers on the totem pole? This will only end badly. I will feel for the little guy. I wish that I could write Chinese to let them hear a voice of reason. Could this be the point of concern that sends the ascending triangle south? In any case the results will soon be revealed.
Oh yeah, End the Fed!
The other school are the people who use charts. They study price action, support and resistance, cycles and season of the year. They don't even have to know the name of a company because they feel that all the information that they see on the charts is included. This is what determines whether they buy or sell.
The fundamentalist call these people voodoo doctors, but these are the people who make the most money and do it on a consistent basis. Under this light, I study. This is what
I $ee
The market has been going higher and higher like Jackie Wilson's great song, Lately, it has been choppy. Fundamentalist, remember this: More demand, higher price. Less demand, lower price. The volume is the lowest in twenty years, but in the short down turns, volume explodes. This is a tell, but the charts are screaming this...
Trend Line
If you draw a trend line in the upper price range of the Dow Index, which was the first American use of a chart school, go back 15 years to the year 2000. Don't worry about the gaps or the drop in the market like in 2001, 2007-09, but just connect the line along the top and you will see a market that trends higher in price. Wait! We are not done. Now, draw another line from the low of the market in March of 2009. Keep this line connecting all the lows in the market, right up to today. You will see a strong resistance and support, going higher and higher, love that Jackie Wilson. So, you might conclude that the market is going north, but you might be jumping the gun, Kemosabe. You see, the two lines are now intersecting. They are forming a point that looks like an ascending triangle. Under chart school thinking, this means a decisive stock market action will soon follow. In most cases, an ascending triangle heads SOUTH! Pay attention to support and resistance levels. You are warned. Be ready!
China Explosion
I have reminded you, dear reader of the potential housing bust in China and after this revelation, the bomb bay doors are open and the ticking time bomb is on its way. Chinese home builders are in a slump. This is how they are selling. In one sense I love this idea because it gives individuals a chance to grow their hard working savings, but the expression "dumb money" clouds my mind. Individual Chinese people are pooling their money in a crowd funding network called, Tuandai. This is the ultimate speculation. The crowd funding buys expensive properties to flip in the market and then, they split the proceeds. Don't they realize that they are becoming the last buyers on the totem pole? This will only end badly. I will feel for the little guy. I wish that I could write Chinese to let them hear a voice of reason. Could this be the point of concern that sends the ascending triangle south? In any case the results will soon be revealed.
Oh yeah, End the Fed!
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