Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Results From Our Experts

Back in 2007 senator Obama pledged in his presidential campaign to end the Middle East wars. After he got elected he actually increased the number of troops and violated another campaign promise. He increased our national debt by giving the military a pay hike. To put this in perspective consider this? Citizens drafted during the Vietnam Era got paid $93 per month and today, they make more than that in a day!
Anyway, eventually he pulled out the troops from Iraq. He stated, "Iraq could self determine..." We trained their military, supplied weapons and money and installed democratic elections. The election went to the Shite's. The newly minted cabinet shut out the competition, the Sunni's.
Back before President Bush invaded Iraq in 2003, other nations warned us to keep out because the nation is fiercely divided. One strong, bad dictator was better for the region than some unknown entity.
Our Experts
new better. Our "military leaders" new better. Today, only our citizens know better. It is a stupid, wasteful war that only makes the world more dangerous and destroys our natural treasures. It will serve no useful purpose.
The first fiasco came to light when President Bush stood on a ship and behind him was a banner proclaiming "Mission Accomplished." There was no plan to establish a new government after the dictator was disposed.
The latest oracle revealed itself with the rising of a fraction known as ISIS. They defeated the Iraqi army and took over Iraq's second largest city, Mosul.
Our "military leadership" didn't foresee this, but after it happened, they had the answer: more training, supplies and money. No one challenged them that this is the same plan instituted ten years prior.
Nevertheless, I draw your attention to the supplies equation. When ISIS defeated the Iraqi army, they took possession of the city which included oil distribution, money and the weapons that we supplied the Iraqi's. They could be using our taxpayer weapons to kill our troops!
Flash Forward
in late 2014, ISIS had another victory by taking Ramadi. In this latest fiasco, we at least know what they took command over. The following taxpayer revenues that will increase our national debt well into the future went into this rogue group. We lost:
2,300 Humvee's worth $16m.
40 Abron tanks worth $172m.
52 Howitzer's worth $2.7m
74,000 machine guns worth $29m.
and who knows what else?
ISIS continues to sell oil in the open market and for all practical purposes are operating as a country within a nation. Our "experts" and "military leaders" offer the same plan as they did back in 2002 when the fool first invaded. Excuse Meeeeee! They are offering the 1964 plan that we used in Vietnam. Send supplies, send some advisers and put up some bases to track the progress. Then what, you ask? Troops on the ground! 50,000 drafted EVERY MONTH!
Oh, by the way those same experts allowed the State Department, White House, the Office of  Personal Management and even the US Army website to be HACKED! This will cause undo hardship for many US citizens not to mention what harm that we will pay for future fraud by criminals. The military wastes $-one trillion every two years and our border is unsafe, our national treasures squandered and now, our invention, the internet will cause us all grief!
My response is to call your attention to the words of wisdom from an unlikely source, the QB of the Denver Broncos who reminds us, "The Arc was built by an amateur while the Titanic was built by experts." 

Tuesday, June 9, 2015

Did You Realize This?

As June is the season for weddings and graduation, I came across these words of advice from an unlikely source. It does not render itself to nuptials, but speaks loudly to the class of 2015 and the rest of us.
Peyton Manning, the QB of Denver reminded us all that an amateur built the Arc and "experts" built the Titanic.
In our so-called modern society we have segregated jobs with education. We classify it as specialization. Then, through time, a certain degree of recognition is gained from experience in the different fields. Of course, doors open faster if you know someone and thus the saying, it is not what you know, but who. Then again, any time one uses the word segregated, it implies another level of difficulty and some doors never open. Dear reader, it is not just minorities that have doors shut on them, but a whole level of society. People, who continue to grow and develop products or ideas have the same doors shut to them. This is a serious problem in America. We are losing our social mobility. This is the problem why my book goes unpublished. Furthermore, almost all the new technology advancements came from venture capitalist, not companies. Shark Tank is a reality. Innovators give up so much just to get a chance. This is very sad for America.
Yes, I'll have some cheese with my whine.
Putting that aside another tidbit has come to focus and the focal point of this piece. Did you know that margin debt pertaining to stocks is included as growth in our economy when the GDP is reported? You see, according to the "experts" margin is credit and credit is considered growth. This obscured manipulation of GDP gets more unreal and dangerous when I add this important aspect to it.
You see, dear reader, that margin debt is off the charts.
Record Level
Yes, it broke the old record of 2007 which broke the previous record back in 2000. Funny thing about those two previous record, the market crashed on both occasions.
This time will be different. Great BS by the pundits and this time, they're right. No, not what they imply, but the fallout will be more devastating than 2008. Margin debt in correlation to our GDP is at 97% in the US which is almost 1-to-1. This is why markets crash. No one challenges the experts that this margin could go south, leaving the investor with debt and losses not to mention what that aspect will do to this manipulated use of credit to be classified as economic growth. With all the people running for office in 2016 not one dares to debate this scary situation. People only spin positives with half truths like this is not another dot.com bubble, now we have earnings. What they don't say is that the buybacks are used to cover shortfalls in revenues, put the company in debt because they use borrowed money from the cheap rates by the Fed. Many, many other examples like Apple taking a loan to provide a dividend.
In addition to this margin debt there is business loans and consumer credit. When you add all three to the picture, you would think that Steven King wrote the script in this economic horror.
Margin debt is 2.89% of our GDP.
Business loans are 10.57% of our GDP.
Consumer credit is 19.04% of our GDP.
32.50%
of our economy is nothing but debt and credit loans. Is it no wonder that America does not create wealth for all its citizens? Is it no wonder that we have a class/wealth gap? And all this hoopla over the market, blinds one to this next very important point.
Market Cap
In relationship to GDP is at its highest peak since 1991 according to a report by NIA(National Inflation Ass.). They looked at the top 24 countries and the average ratio is 90%. Stocks are considered overvalued at 75%. Presently, the US is at 97% and many countries like Japan are at 100%. In fact, over half are at 95%. The last time this occurred was in 2007. Enough said!
If you think or believe the above is bad, I will remind you, dear reader that government
manipulation to GDP is off the charts when you consider the next recent changes.
Lights, Camera, Action...
if you are a movie or television producer and whatever work you perform in your environment is now considered economic growth. All the costs are included as gains in the economy. It doesn't matter whether the movie fails, the show is dropped by a network or even the fact that it was so bad that it didn't even get completed. Yeah, this helps America and promotes the general welfare of... lobbyists and the connected. How about a new computer with all the bells and whistles? This gets a double category. It lowers the CPI because it makes you more productive and this productivity increase is a plus to GDP. All our agencies have been poisoned by appointments as favors, the government only spins positive lies and even with all its manipulation, the economy contracted in the first quarter.

Tuesday, June 2, 2015

PREDICTION: A Big Move Is Coming In Silver

Yesterday leads to today and together forms tomorrow - Sebastian

In his book, Fisher has traced the history of fiat currencies with one common denominator: they all failed. The average lifespan is 40 - 50 years. The US has held as the world's reserve currency under a fiat system for 44 years. The clock is ticking...
Today
China wants to be the Alfa dog, but opposition is still strong against their desires. However, there is a growing opposition against the greenback due to the policies of the Federal Reserve and our foreign policy of military intervention. In our present environment there are few choices. The IMF has a plan with a new currency called SDR. This is a weighted basket of currencies. China wants to be included and people say that on 20th of October of this year, there will be a major announcement on the subject. Also, we have history's choice: gold and precious metals. Since the central bankers control the game they have outlawed precious metals as money. They call people who follow the Founding Fathers choice as bugs with the euphemism "gold bugs."
One of the complaints by government about gold is a valid point. There isn't enough to back a currency. However, these are the people who make the rules. They overlook the aspect that if platinum were added to form a three tier approach, precious metals could back a currency. In any case gold has found a place in jewelry. Platinum is needed for converters and is also in jewelry. Then, the poor man's choice: silver. It is needed in so many industrial products that it could fill a page. It lost its hold in photography, but solar looms even larger. Solar producers expect to need 150 million ounces in the next two years. Silver is in demand in electronics and water sanitation which will also increase demand. We know one principal that evades even market manipulation: supply and demand. When supply is limited and demand grows, the price rises.
Now
the present climate has all three metals in the dog pound. The miners are hurt by rules and regulations, environmental concerns and financing. In addition, they have labor problems, insurance worries and equipment costs. Low prices has caused them to cut back in production and curtailed future exploration and investment. With this outlook you would expect prices to rise under the simple guidelines of supply and demand. Did I mention a study that claims since silver is a low crust metal, the supply is dwindling due to peak discoveries? Put all of the above in my favorite stock, Silver Wheaton and I will be able to retire with heat in winter and air in summer. However, the focal point of this piece could be the catalyst or the antagonist for silver. Time will tell.
Question
Why would JP Morgan, long whispered to be the shill for the Federal Reserve and fiat money, suddenly have an about face? They have started to stockpile silver. They are no longer just trading, and usually a short on silver, to accumulating. Is this another miracle like Paul on the road to Damascus? Morgan Chase is taking delivery of contracts. In April 2015 they purchased 8,300 ounces of silver. This big dog has caused smaller hedge funds to follow their lead. They now total 55,692,000 ounces of silver. Something is going to happen and this is the difficult part of my prediction. What do they see or know? Were they uncovered in a fraud investigation and they have to replace a truckload of silver? Do they recognize the lack of production while solar needs are increasing? Is Greece going to cause a run to safety? As you can see there are more questions than answers. Of course, with their history the danger of the dumping their load to crush the silver price and market also looms.
I offer this advice. Watch the daily action and weekly trend. If silver breaks down and falls below $15, drop it like a bad habit. However, if it rises in a staircase move with the first step being $18.50, get on board the gravy train. After that, the next step would be over $23.10. And if it continues and passes $25.12, put it all on the nose and I'm not talking American Pharaoh. When and if that day comes, I'll give an update on my triple crown of precious metals.   

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Caught: Libor Scandal, FX Scandal and Khara & Salim - Who Else?

From the rear to the front which is always the case: Little guys do the time while the big boys just pay the fine.
Khara and Salim were two gold traders from the United Arab Emirates. They were caught using a manipulative technique known as "layering."
In this scheme you place a buy or short order out of the money. This causes the equity to process a plus or minus in futures. Then, before execution, you cancel which again effects the equity futures. The unfilled order also effects the market. The trader then takes advantage of this move to capture a gain before the equity and market returns to equilibrium.
History Repeats
It is the same scheme that Sarao used to facilitate the "flash crash" in 2012.
Looking Deeper
One realizes that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission(CFTC)isn't serious about protecting pure price discovery. This weakness always reflects back to traders who say that the metals markets is rigged. The CFTC hasn't addressed the problem.
Casey Research
has done a wonderful study into the precious metals market. In their report going back to 1970(rear to front) to today, they found that prices usually rose in the Asian Market, however, they usually tend lower in the US market. Why?
That question is what they discovered and looking deeper, they point a finger. Keep in mind that whatever the price action, it effects your wallet. Let's do an example.
If you had invested $100 back in 1970 at the London AM gold fix and sold your position at the London PM gold fix on the same day, then reinvested the proceeds the next day and did this until today, you would have $12.
However, if you just bought bullion in 1970, held it, now it is worth $2,000.
Conclusion:
The US market consistently drove the price lower. The CFTC has never questioned this price action which is clearly anti-gold. Elke Koenig, a German financial regulator calls it, "collusion, and worse than Libor's scandal."
When you realize that this price action has been repeated for 45 years, it has to be someone with size and power like an investment bank, but it is a long ways from the rear to the front of the line.
In a token case the CFTC recently fined JP Morgan just $650K for years of data falsification on the CME. As for the Libor and FX culprits, they were fined a paltry average of $500K for years of rigging foreign exchange rates and currencies. -- Little guys do time while big boys just pay fines.    

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

1960 Democratic Platform v. Trans-Pacific Partnership

The TPP is being pushed by President Obama, the democratic leader and is backed by the Republican Congress. Why is that? We know that since Obama has been in office, the Republicans only use a two letter word for any of his ideas - No!
I'll tell you why and it enforces another reason to abandon the two leading political parties because they are corrupt and only administer to the wealthy. They do nothing for ordinary citizens. In addition, my research has uncovered the 1960 Democratic Platform. Compare it with the present actions by the president and his party. Keep in mind that the Republicans opposed those concepts and I 'll give them consistency because they are still against them. Also, in your comparison, you will soon realize that today, neither party has a platform. They just use vague wording to express thoughts with the only objective to capture your vote. As they shake hands, they declare, "I'm for jobs, lower taxes and economic growth." They never offer a plan to obtain those ersatz issues. This point is so bad that there is even a website addressed to every minute that presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton has not answered a question by a reporter.
Here now is the issues that the democrats stood for back in 1960. Please, remember the first four on the agenda. I will show how the lack of conviction and character by the Democrats is reason to drop them like a bad habit. As for the Republicans, it is the same old same old: we got it and we're gonna keep it and screw you. They are the party that stands for guardian of privilege.
1960 Platform
1) The right to a useful and remunerative job in the industries or shops or farms or mines of the nation.
2) The right to earn enough to provide adequate food and clothing and recreation.
3) The right of every farmer to raise and sell his products at a return which will give him and his family a decent living.
4) The right of every businessman, large and small, to trade in an atmosphere of freedom from unfair competition and domination by monopolies at home and aboard.(italic mine.)
5) The right of every family to a decent home.
6) The right to adequate medical care and the opportunity to achieve and enjoy good health.
7) The right to adequate protection from the economic fears of old age, sickness, accidents and unemployment.
8) The right to a good education.
There they are. Now, there is a valid question about these rights. They do not grow in nature. They are man-made values. So, who provides them? If one takes someone's product and gives it to another the first person is a slave. Our Founding Fathers said, "The right to the pursuit of happiness from his unalienable rights - freedom to think and act."
However, the translation to reality needs clarification. You start an enterprise. You find your product is needed and it is priced right to capture the market. You seek financial help to produce on a larger scale. A richer man takes a gamble on you. Together, you form a partnership. You open a plant and your neighbors help you to succeed. This is the pursuit of happiness. Time passes. Foreign enterprises use your idea and do the same thing in their nation. No patent protection and court costs are too expensive with little restitution. They're there and our plant is here until another rich man makes a deal with the foreign producer to bring his stolen crap here. They call it free trade.
Free Trade
is a lie. There is no such thing. Every nation uses laws and regulations, tariffs and currency manipulation to gain market share. The US uses subsidies. This is Ground Zero. This trading concept dates back to 1700 and the Industrial Revolution. The English aristocracy used it to fight the guilds of Europe. The working man has been under the whip ever since with only a slight rebirth during the union movement in the 1850s. Free trade is anti-worker and the only jobs it creates is from the established to the disadvantaged.
Back to our example, foreign nations use currency manipulation to underprice you and eventually, you are out of business. This is CAFTA, NAFTA in reality. We know that 60,000 plants have closed and millions of middle-class jobs were lost. Now, because wages rose in China, Mexico, Japan, Korea and elsewhere, the greedy rich man is seeking new grounds like Burma, Malaysia and the far corners of the earth to build plants and exploit cheap labor. This agreement will only make us poorer or do I need to remind you that 46 million are on food stamps and although we are at our highest population, at the same time we are at historic lows in our workforce. Free trade is the root to the decline in our standard of living and at last check, the US was not even in the top twenty nations in the world, not to mention our poor education and infrastructure. If it weren't for our subsidies, we would be a low tier third world nation.
There are few people in power speaking against the TPP. Senators Sanders and Warren are our limited hope. We know what past trade deals do to our nation and the economist, Joseph Schumpeter proved to us that the creative aspects in a free capitalistic society develop the actual destruction of products for newer versions. Out with the old 8-track and in with cassettes. Out with the rotary phone and in with the cell. In addition, do you recall presidential candidate, Ross Perot who predicted that millions of jobs would be sucked south of the border and beyond. He was correct!
Today, they say this deal will be different. I will show you how this is B.S.!
Back to the Future
When the last deal was made, they said the same answers. At the time a new US car went for $6K, gas a buck and the medium price for a home was $64,000. What happened?
Two trade deals later, the Fed printing and government waging stupid, useless wars just like Vietnam. There is not one person in Congress from the middle-class or working class. It is only a debate between the rich of both parties and people wonder why there is a wealth gap?
TPP
This deal has been "negotiated" which is a euphemism, by 85% executives or their lobbyists with the remaining percentages being lawyers, interpreters and bureaucrats. No one represents you or me. One other aspect that I found out about this deal is that it is secret and there will be no mention of currency manipulation which is the standard practice by foreign nations. Our political parties are despicable and are border line traitors to our citizens. The first four "rights" of 1960 have long been 86th. I say, " TPP? Hell no!" After all, I know that TP stands for toilet paper which is one level below fiat paper.

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

US Fed Translated

The current buzz about a rate hike by the Federal Reserve is music to their ears. However, they don't like the bond market stealing their thunder which is also in vogue. Then again, they have the money boys of Wall St. dancing to their fiddle. Even though the song has been played from a million times to now, a trillion times, it is the meme, their semper idem.
Started With
Chairman Volker who raised rates to fight inflation. He said he was fighting inflation, but if you need me to translate that old lingo, your mind has been captured by the Fed. He was fighting gold which had gone from $24. to $800. The chairman feared the public was rejecting fiat money with a return to the gold standard. He knew it could get worse. Maybe a call to eliminate the Fed itself. People were talking how the Founding Fathers rejected fiat money in favor of gold and silver. Here is a funny tidbit and ironic too. Present talk has the treasury replacing Jackson on the $twenty in favor of a woman to reflect our society. Maybe because Jackson was the last president to cancel the Fed? After all, they used woman's lib to hide the truth before when that was in vogue.
Now
the Fed has complete control. Gold has been rejected and only followed by "gold bugs." You never hear anyone mention it in a favorable light in economic discussions or by Wall St. There is not one week that passes where some Fed committee member does not hold a headline with a few well chosen words like rate movement or economic recovery. This is a dark time in the kingdom. Anyway, in the hope that people will see the light and the force be with us, I have elected to translate the current jingo into our lingo. By the way this is a world wide problem and since the ball is in Europe at the moment, what better time to expose their leader. Jean Claude Juncken is the president of the EC. This is a quote from him talking about financial crisis. It says so much, "When it becomes serious, you have to lie." How about another on excessive debt and rollovers of debt, "We continue step by step until there is no turning back."
You got to love this idiot if nothing else, his gall. Here in the USA, we have borrowed the English language and over time, we added our own nuances. The following are quotes from the Fed. You can apply their current words for future action. After each quote, I translated and in some cases give commentary under parenthesis.
1) QUOTE: The committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced.
MEANS: Things could go up - or down.
2) QUOTE: The committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.
MEANS: We really don't know what will happen.(like the oil price collapse, but we want to instill confidence like we do know.)
3) QUOTE: In determining how long to maintain this target range, the committee will assess progress - both realized and expected - toward its objective of maximum employment and 2% inflation.
MEANS: We might do something about rates or not.(Not is most likely.)
4) QUOTE: The committee judges that an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate remains unlikely at the FOMC meeting.
MEANS: No rate hike. (everything is a smoke screen.)
5) QUOTE: Just because we removed the word, "patient" doesn't mean we are going to be impatient.  MEANS: Just trust us. (another Indian smoke signal. However, if you are not patient, then you are impatient.)
6) QUOTE: The committee continues to expect a moderate pace of GDP growth, robust job gains and lower energy prices supporting households.
MEANS: Trust us. (question- when did the Fed get into energy prices? Oh, I forgot. They control the world.)
7) QUOTE: Any increase in rates could be warranted at any future meeting, depending on how the economy evolves.
MEANS: We love to see that you listen to our every syllable. (wait, didn't they say that robust job gains and lower energy prices will grow and support our economy?)
8) QUOTE: When an economy is operating at the so-called zero low bound, it creates a situation where there are asymmetric risks. It is possible if the economy proves stronger than is expected to respond to the tightening policy. If there are adverse shocks to demand that tend to push inflation and economic performance in averse direction it's not possible to lower rates.
MEANS: We know everything and we got the government in conjunction. They have eliminated food and energy from the CPI(consumer price index). (they are the only two things that everyone needs everyday out of the index. This is why there is never a spike in inflation according to them and their counter-parts around the world. China has cut its interest rates for the third time in the last six months.)
9) QUOTE: In some corporate debt markets, we do see evidence of unusually low spreads.
MEANS: Someone is interfering in our domain. We will smoke them out when we raise our rates.
10) QUOTE: The global experience shows that giving banks independence to make monetary policy is in the best interest of the country.
MEANS: We need more power! (giving us control over the Consumer Finance Protection Board is best for all, especially us.)
Bottom Line
QUOTE: Any talk about appearing before Congress or auditing is fine because we are ready to answer any question on any aspect of the Federal Reserve.
MEANS: No one can do anything to us because we report to no one and appointed for six years. We don't have to appropriate money for any of our policies, we just print it!(which dilutes all of our standard of living and puts our nation at risk which is why I say, End the Fed! 

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Born 1961 - Died 2015

- ...Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country.
                                                                                                                                       - JFK

In the 2008 financial crisis big banking and connected institutions received aid that numbered over $800 billion. The Federal Reserve printed over $3 trillion to cover this and other stimulus programs enacted by our government. Since 2008 we have doubled our national debt with no end in sight and no plan to pay this debt. We have not only endangered our country, but the psyche of ordinary citizens is also affected. We no longer are creating real wealth that benefits both the creator, his workers and our nation, but only individuals like the no content concept of Facebook, Twitter and the like. When too many hands reach for a slice, only a few will eat. The rest will go hungry and plot against those who ate. President Kennedy inspired us back in 1961. The Federal Reserve poisoned us in 2008. Consider the following aspect of some who are reaching for a slice of pie.
12 Steps for Financial Well-Being
1) Don't marry your woman, just live with her. While at the same time...
2) Continue to use your mother's address for all your correspondence.
3) Save enough to buy a home. You can use the 3% HUD program.
4) Then, rent it to your woman who can apply for assistance under section 8. This will pay for your mortgage. The rest of us will pay for it.
5) Your stay at home woman can even get pregnant because she will receive a larger check. Again, we pay for it.
6)Your woman can also apply for Obamacare, so you don't have to worry about her medical needs. The rest of us will pay for it.
7)Your woman can apply her talents to get off the "dole." She can return to school to better her chances in life and as usual, we will pay for it.
8)Still hungry? Apply for food stamps.
9) Need a home number. Apply for a free cell phone.
10) Cold? Hot? Apply for utility aid and yes, we will pay for it.
11)Finally, you tire of getting up to go to work. You claim disability. We pay for this too.
12) This couple does nothing for the nation but takes advantage of compassionate ideas to help distressed cases. Their hands are in the pie while some real needs are not being met. We know you are doing this and we are sick and tired of it. We see your food card at the grocery store and then, see you drive away in a newer car. We hear of companies bilking Medicare with bonus claims. All this fraud and more could be stopped with the hiring of people to investigate claims. If this is not done, social unrest will follow. I, for one am angry at the following figures.
$21,000 disability
$10,800 housing assistance
$  6,000 medical help
$  6,000 food stamps
$  4,800 utility aid
$  6,000 School grants like Pell funds
$12,000 other school aid
$  8,800 tax exemption on your tax return
Total= $75,000 . This is more than married couple make with both working and more than I ever dreamed of making in one year. It is right to kelp the needy, but like with coupons at stores, you should only be allowed to use one and not be able to have multiple streams of aid.
I only help those who help themselves.
                                                                        - God