EV - Present State

We love the idea, especially in connection to clean air, climate and environment. We dislike the producers. It seems like all new products, the sizzle sells, but the product is not fully developed. Anyone who has had one of their internet contraptions hacked, kwons what we mean. 

Telling it like it is...

The first and biggest complaint is the time to recharge a vehicle. My gas car takes less than five minutes. Not so with EVs. In addition, charging stations are few and far in between. The industry lacks a common portal. So, the charging station's plug gizmo may not fit your make and model. Then, what do you do?

In bad weather your EV performs poorly. To make matters worse, the vehicle is difficult to start in a cold season.

Not usually mentioned is the fact that battery packs need replacing more often than realized. And yes, they are expensive.

Limited driving range. I have driven across our great and large nation many times. I would not dare to venture a trip with an EV.

The price to charge an EV at the moment is more expensive than gasoline. This may change. There are too many varibles to see the future cost.

Cost! EVs are more expensive than combustion engines to purchase. This will even out as more electric vehicles are produced and sold. However, the transition is slow with many obstacles. 

Weight. The batteries that are presently utilized are way, way to heavy. Technology needs to improve the battery packs for EVs. By achieving this point, the range and pick-up response will dramatically be add to the performance of electric vehicles. Also, the development of a battery storage unit would give owners more faith in long road trips. 

Considering an EV? Reread all of the above.

Maybe An Investment?

If you missed the early event, you missed the boat. The P/Es of EV manufacturers offering stock was off the charts. They still are, but the market is catching up to a value and price level. 

The biggest brand is Tesla. The stock hit a record price at $300. It is now $193 and heading for $108. How about Buffett's investment, BYD Co. Ltd.? It reached $36. It is now $23 and heading for $18. One other big name was NIO Co. The stock hit $60. It is now $5.93 and falling. Ouch! The Chinese government will intercede to save it or maybe not with all its other worries in real estate? With all that revealed by the market a new EV is coming from Viet Nam (VFS). It is suppose to sell for $20 grand. India, as well as every gas consuming manufacturer is getting or is in the game. A shakeout will occur. A key to success or failure will be on battery development. Tesla is leading, but South Korea is making up ground. President Biden gave EVs a big push in his Inflation Reduction Act. It provided money for charging stations and gave EV buyers a tax credit of $7,500. We noted this and we also expect others to copy and other changes addressing EV vehicles.

Hyundai is offering a cash back on its EVs for??? If you guessed $7,500, go buy a lottery ticket. We predict that auto insureres will soon offer seperate pricing for combustion v. electric.

We mentioned Tesla as the leading brand, but China is the leading seller of EVs. One aspect to their success comes from Russia. When sanctions got put on Russia by the West, it had no choice but to buy  cars from China. 

Back to Tesla

Tesla is cutting production in its German plant due to the termoil in the Red Sea to shipping. If the tanker cannot bring the materials, you are out of luck. Old man Ford realized this aspect a 100 years ago. Ford produced everything that it needed. Another point with Tesla and tariffs. Tesla sold only one car in all of South Korea in January. There are other months where they had no sales at all. I made this point years ago with the greatest car ever made, the Ford Mustang. How many were sold in foreign nations? They don't buy American. The answer is to put quotas on imports and high, very high tariffs on all imports. Use the tax to lower our national deficit.

I will say one more thing about Tesla. They make a beautiful looking car. Just address the problems. Peace.  

China New Year and SB

This week is big for China as well as US sport lovers. What China does effects the world. The US has been the most influencial nation to the world. In the US, American football is the country's most favorite sport. This aspect alone will get the global community's interest and most likely to follow the game.

Year of the Dragon

The Chinese most favorable zodiac sign approaches as the nation is experiencing a slowdown in its economy. On the surface, this is not visable as the country grew its GDP by 5.2% for 2023. Under the hood shows the problem. Younger workers are being laid off due to foreign firms leaving the country. Real estate which is their consumers nest egg is in termoil. The largest firm, Evergrande has entered bankruptcy. When your debt load is $300 billion and your assets are $245 billion that spells trouble. It leads to where the firm is located. This could foreshadow what the Communist government is doing in China. They get behind an idea to expand the economy with a segment in production. To their credit this technique has forged the nation to be the world leader in exports. They are number one in many categories like EV vehicles and number two in world production of all vehicles. In our thinking at Evolution, this makes China the number one economy in the world. They are considered second, but we feel this is due to currency manipulation. Their currency should be the most expensive. This would change the results. Then, the global community would balance out the import/export equation. However, egos and other agenda by the US and the West come into play. Nevertheless, China spends way more than it can afford. Their debt to GDP is way over 200%! This spells trouble and trouble leads to bankruptcy. The Communist government blames the US and the West with false claims of keeping China down when they lie, cheat, steal, hack and subsidize their economy to be the leader of the world. Pure ego! Pure corruption!

Coal

It is king in China as the nation consumes more than the rest of the world combined. It realizes this climate dangerous fact and they are making great changes. They are the leader in solar, EVs, and panels for wind turbines. This is good and bad. The good part is China is seeking to change their energy consumption and cleaner air. The negative part is they don't seek just to change, but to control this energy field. They subsidized their firms to which puts other firms in the global comuunity at a disadvantage. When they retaliate with tariffs, the Chinese government complains. They go to their false slogan about keeping China down. 

However, China is trying to give their citizens a better life and a higher standard of living. China accounts for 31% of global manufacturing and 13% of global consumption. Their problem is to know when to hold them and know when to fold them. The global economy is slowing, but China keeps production high. They seek to dominate global firms by putting them out of business like the many in the US. For instance, the city of Gary, Indiana has 10,000 abandoned buildings. They use the proceeds to suppress the yuan to keep this advantage. It is no wonder that China is facing a backlass. Then, they do dangerous things like seeking to develop a nuclear battery to dominate the battery segment. We would recommend to the Communist government to copy the Japanese firms. They make a product and they continually seek to refine it. They build a brand name for market niche. If you keep doing what you are doing, you are on the road to failure and ruin. Maybe a new year with new thinking will turn things around? Anyway, Happy New Year!

Super Bow LVIII

- We ain't here to start no trouble, we're just doing the Super Bowl Shuffle

- Da Bears - SB XX

It had to be the greatest hype and it is the best musical for a Super Bowl. Of course, back in that day, I was mad as hell at the Bears. In the prior playoff game, not only did they knockout the greatest quarterback out of the game, they put him in the hospital. The game was way more physical in those days. There never was a call for roughing the passer. That is why I put no credence in stats nowadays. 

With that said, we can't wait! Our team is playing. Go Niners! We would love to go to the game, but the Federal Reserve has destroyed the purchasing power of the dollar. The cheapest ticket runs over $5,686 dollars and the outlets charge fees that cost over another grand. Are you kidding me!? The average cost of a ticket is $9,619 dollars plus fees! Get out of town!

We would never spend that much even though in our heart this is something that we long to do like a bucket list. It appears that we never will. It isn't just us. US car makers are not advertising for the first time because commercial time is too expensive. A 30 second ad will cost $7 million. The NFL makes most of its revenue from commercials. The loss of value by the Fed's policies will result in moving football games to streaming services. This will be the death of our favorite sport. Now, can you see why we say, "End the Fed!"

As for now, let us enjoy the game. If we attend a party, put our best forward with comradeship even if the game does not go the way we hope. Enjoy. Peace and GO NINERS!

  

Odds and Ends: January 2024

- To master love, you have to practice love.

- Miguel Ruiz

We believe the above quote is appropiate for all of us to incorporate into our lives as a new year's resolution. Yes, it is good to watch our health with better eating and living habits. Yes, it is good to set a goal for ourselves. However, by seeking to put our best foot forward, we will be generating a more positive environment. We receive a better mental frame of mind as St. Francis reminds us, "It is in giving that we receive."

Bull Market?

The stock market hit new highs in the Dow and S&P 500. This would indicate a new bull market. However, according to Dow Theory, the industrials and the transports must be in conjunction. The transports are a long way from their last high. In addition, the old Wall St. adage about the "January Barometer" says the first week results sets the tone for the year. It was down. However, it is up for the month. 

Bottom line: Disharmony. This translates to a wait and see. Maybe later today after the Federal Reserve announces the results of their meeting, we will glean a better insight. If no action and that is the prevailing thought, you can follow King $Dollar. This effects everything and the market goes inverse to the dollar price.

Economy?

The government would like us to believe that a strong stock market reflects our economy. It does not. Recent news about layoffs are tripping over into various segments from retail, Macy's to energy, Solar Edge to tech, Salesforce and Microsoft to service, UPS. Existing home sales for 2023 was at a 30-year low. Then, the government reported that unemployment fell to 3.7%. We do not believe this stat. Apparently, Jeffery Gundlach does not believe it either. He makes this observation, "88% of our states report rising unemployment." This does not jive. Nevertheless, most analyst say that the August low of 2022 will not be tested. Of course, this is an election year. History says the stock market rises in the last year of a president's term (President Cycle). With that in mind, we read two quotes from our leading financial institutions. Goldman Sachs says, "Trump will win." JP Morgan Chase says, "Biden will withdraw from the election." Talk about influencers?   

Speaking of influencers, the IMF says, "Commercial real estate is under its worse drop in price and value during the last two years." We say that the worse is still to come. One strong indicator was Chinese real estate developers failed to repay oversea bonds. The value is over $100 billion.

Here is some other interesting notes. For the last 60 years a chart shows that the S&P rises in January and falls in February. In the declines in February, the fall is more prominent in the President Cycle year. Sebastian adds this: A four year chart on gold related to election years reveals gold fell in 2012, rose in 2016 and fell in 2020. If this is valid, this points to gold rising in 2024.

Harry Dent

This is someone whom we pay attention too. He is a financial bestseller. His theory on economics is based on demographics. China will not like his work, but it seems all industrialized nations are under the same problem, population decline. Harry sees a big crash coming. He says to look for market tests of price levels for proof. If NASDAQ falls below 10,088, look out! He adds the first of three down waves appeared in the August low of 2022. He adds Bitcoin should fall below $40,000 and all the way to its first pricing point. 

Conclusion: This is a leap year and under the Chinese zodiac, its most favorable sign. Let us put forth Miquel's words to work and practice love, end war and violence and be grateful for the little things in life like the sun's warmth, smiles on faces, a safe home with food on the table.  Peace.

No High Five Here

Congrats, Yes! No!

One side of me wants to congratulate the country of Japan for being the fifth nation to land something on the moon. The other side begs, pleads, screams and worries why space garnishes so much attention while important matters for our existence on earth are overlooked?

1st Step

I understand that the moon serves as the first step into a deeper understanding and eventually, the colonization of planets, but in the here and now, earthly inhabitants have not demonstrated that we can take care of our home base, let alone develop another one.

Water

It is abundant in theory, but fresh, drinking water that sustains our life is dwindling and faces contamination. Man has always used water locations to dump their residue. As man progressed, he learned to harnish the earth's most valuable commodity by building dams, retention ponds and aqueducts to provide this necessary component of life. If we flash forward to the end of the 19th century, enlightened civil servants spent to develop infrastructure that featured a plumbing system that provided indoor access for drinking water. It provided a safe way to exit our faeces that gave us our modern world. The system not only gave comfort, but improved sanitary conditions for all citizens. Those government leaders displayed a better service to society and the nation than our present government leaders.

One Problem

The infrastructure was not complete. The government at the time needed tax revenues to do the work. They did not have the revenues to complete the job. Maybe they did not have the technology? Maybe what was known was too expensive? Maybe their ego to be re-elected and being associated with more taxes to finish the system got in the way? Who knows? That answer is not important. Finishing the job is the real question that needs to be answered. 

They let their ego run. They gave their citizens a better life. They dumped the sewerage into the oceans, rivers and lakes. Today, we see the results. 

Clean Water Act

It came as a result of the Cuyahoga River setting itself on fire in 1969 due to dumping in the river. They say that the river is actually safe today because protections got put into place. You can eat the fish from it. To which leads to all the other fish that can feed us in all the other bodies of water. Forget the moon! We need our nation and every nation on the planet to address this contamination. All sewerage water, all excess residue from factories, et al. needs to be treated before being entered into other bodies of water. We, at Evolution believe that almost all illnesses can be traced to poor, dirty, contaminated water. If we want to add to our food supply? If we want to fight cancer? If we want to promote the general welfare? We need to improve our infrastructure. We need to finish the job started over 100 years ago.

Bigger Problem

Our oceans are becoming cesspools that have visible rings of garbage floating on the surface. Who knows what dangers are happening below the surface? However, we can see the results in species. The list of extinct species was not enough to alarm the world. The present visuals of tangled plastic poisioning the remaining species should be our wake up call to action. There are good people trying to help, but money and its shrinking value makes it almost impossible for small groups to achieve any sustaining work. Another reason to End the Fed!

Anyway, our idea is from our founder's unpublished book. It could be the start to end the pollution in our oceans. Every ocean going ship should be taxed because we all know that they pollute. The tax can only be used to develop a process to clean the oceans and find a safe way to dispose of plastics. One way is to develop a "Pollution Ship." This boat would act like a trawler to collect the garbage floating on the surface. The more we look at the problem, the more solutions can come to light. Maybe the fifth idea will be the right one for all of us on earth and not an ego trip to space.

We all need to protect the most precious commodity on earth or we will end up a lifeless, dust bowl that is diseased riddened with poisoned waters. Clean Water Now! Peace. 

New Year, Old Problems

- The US has achieved the soft landing.

- Janet Yellen

I begin with the above quote. I use it in scorn. For most of the world we are in a new year. The Chinese lead the orientals a little later. They should be happy with anticipation. Their favorite zodiac sign, Year of the Dragon is approaching. Maybe they will be right. The year turns out good for them and the rest of us. Then, "Yellen" Yellen would be right and us here at Evolution, wrong. Wesley Snipes said, "Bet on black." We say, "Never bet on what the Federal Reserve says." They always have a hidden agenda. 

Banking

The banking issues surprised all the "experts" in 2023. Dear Reader, they are not over. Our largest bank, JP Morgan Chase showed declining profits. Why? They took a $2.9 billion hit with the acquisition of the defaulted regional bank. Their declines are not over. Then, we hear that Citi Group reported losess of $1.8 billion. They are closing branch banks. They anticipate dropping 20,000 employees. Their pain is not over. Finally, we read from our best bank, Bank of America that they too sustained deep losses. They lost $1.6 billion due to regulatory charges. Their profits declined. Their pain is not over. All these and almost every bank suffers from the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates. They all have government bonds paying 3% or less. Inflation aside, they all are losing money. They all have unrealized losses. The amounts are staggering. They could total over $100 billion. Banking issues are not going away.

Inflation

The phony report came in last week. It stated that inflation ended the year at 3.4%. The media uses ex-president Clinton's concept, "Keep saying things are better and eventually, people will believe it." The various articles showed declines in food like eggs that dropped in price by 29%. So, we did the math. We even used the government's numbers. The egg price beginning in January of 2023 was $1.29 per dozen. When you add inflation by the month, the price in November was $2.54. You show a 29% drop in price. The price of a dozen eggs is $1.81 which is .52 cents more than in January. This is the lie! Inflation may drop in a month, but the total effect remains with us. It is ingrained. People are suffering to make ends meet. You can see the real effect of inflation to consumers by their credit card data. Reports show that 49% of consumers are carrying debt. This translates to 56 million people. They are paying higher debt fees. Many carry a balance that is up 40% yoy. We say, please, live within your means. You have to look out for number one and follow Rodney Dangerfield's wisdom, "Don't step in number two." 

2cd. View of Inflation

You might have doubts about our above example as egg prices differ throughout the nation. How about shelter? Even the government admits rents are up 6% yoy. We all know mortgage rates are high and they make the price of a home very expensive. However, how about those who already have a home? Home insurance is up everywhere in the country. The worst state is our third largest. Florida has a dual whammy. Many insurance firms are leaving the state due to hurricane costs. The ones who remain have raised their rates like around Tampa at 100% yoy. Rate increases hit our largest state, California by 40%. Many states like New York and New Jersey have boards to request rate hikes. They too approved insurance hikes at 17% for Jersey and 8% for New York. People are having a hard time in keeping their home due to taxes, insurance and maintenance. This is very troubling.

Scary Trendline

The above is troubling. This is down-right scary. Russia started war with Ukraine in Febuary 2022. Hamas invaked Israel in October 2023. In 2024 we have Yemen rebels attacking shipping. We have civil unrest in Ecuador. We have cities throughout Europe where citizens are upset about immigration. We have elections in many global nations. Dictatorship is rising. Taiwan just elected a president friendly to democracy and China does not like that. The list goes on and on. Let's hope and pray this threndline ends. Peace.

Returns, Polls and Ratings

Food for Thought: Always remember when people disagree with your economic and or, political views is what they are really saying is I have a closed mind because I have my beliefs. Liberal is not a bad word. It means to have an open mind. It is okay to be conservative too and base your beliefs on values. However, people at one time believed in many false truths like the world is flat.

It is a new year and the RPR is a popular forecast sandwich. We, at Evolution believe that the "Return Factor" is an overlooked aspect. It holds a deeper meaning with the amount of merchandise returned. We are not scholars that spend a lifetime looking at aspects to make a determination. We may not be as accurate as those deeper intellecturals, but we feel that we are 300-hitters using a baseball analogy. Anyway, we feel the larger the volume of retrurns forebodes a weaker consumer and it is an indicator for consumer spending for the coming year. 

At one time, reteail firms took returns and refunded or offered another product with no questions asked. Today, you need an ID, a receit, and if paid by credit card, the same card. You go through a thorough check at customer service to verify the product. This also happens, although unseen by e-commerce. Of course, paying by credit card makes the process easier. With that said, e-commerce is beginning to charge shipping costs. In the future we see retail adding fees for returns. There is no free lunch.

Polls

A media service asked their patrons for their opinion on things that they were concerned about for 2024. This is the results from 34 nations with an average of 25,000 responses.

1) 71% say climate events is their biggest worry.                                                                                        2) 71% say immigration will continue and they worry about the consequences.                                          3) 64% say AI will cause the loss of many jobs.                                                                                            4) 59% say workers will return to work at their office.                                                                                  5) 35% say Trump will be re-elected in 2024.                                                                                                6) 31% say they do not believe the Ukraine war will end in 2024.

Ratings

The Fitch Ratings Service downgraded the US standing in global ranking from AAA to AA. This means the US will have to pay a premium in seeking loans from international lenders. They based their results on the excessive US debt, now at $34 trillion and poor governance. This should be a headline, especially in an election year. Sadly, American citizens are numb to debt figures since we have a deficit every year. The number is not understandable and people do not grasp how wealth is made. In addition, there are multiple trillions that are off the books like social security. Our society does not realize the dangers of the US losing its currency as the world's reserve. There are forces seeking to dethrone King $Dollar. We have stated this before. We need an amendment to force our government to have a balanced budget. We don't need to wake up one morning to the news that our dollar is no longer king. If that were to happen, we would be a Third World country with an atomic bomb like India, Pakistan and North Korea. 

Try to find peace. As for me, I'm trying to locate my receipt. I still shop at brick and mortar stores. Later.

2024: Year of Issues

Population

The new year will ring with a big, round number concerning global population. There are 8-billion of us. At the same time, agricultural land is being threatened by expanding local population, development, taxes, inflationary prices, soil erosion, lack of water and or, the price of water and labor along with pollution. You can find examples everywhere. We will use two. In Florida, disease gets added to the list of issues facing farmers of citric. Florida production has declined for the last decade and the price for juice keeeps rising. In our leading produce state, California, farmers can't get water. When they do, they cannot find drivers to deliver their harvest to sell. Have you checked the price of a can of tomatoes? Our government is full of BS concerning inflation. A can of tomatoes that cost .50-cents in 2022, now costs .85-cents. This product gets multiplied by the many food products on the market. So, if next month a can of tomatoes only cost .79-cents, the government says deflation. We say BS! It is up over 50%. This is inflation when it becomes ingrained and it hurts all of us. 

Connect the Dots

The government says food increased by 2.9% in 2023. Forget the lie. We now have 8-billion mouths to feed with rising costs. Food banks are becoming a way of life in America. Our poor citizens will multiply claims for SNAP and wear-out the good intentions of good people to care for each other. Where are those migrant millions on the border going to get something to eat, shelter and a job that pays a living wage? Where do people in Gaza go? Where do poor people in the continent of Africa go? In the Caribbean, in South America? Ukraine is a world supplier, but is suffering war. Where can that supply be covered? Another global food supplier, the Philippines is worried about EL Nino. Climate is affecting food growers every where. Food insecurity will be a world issue in 2024.

Education

It may not sound like an important issue, but the media keeps this off the radar. Home schooling is expected to reach 2.7 million students in 2024. COVID began the change. Mass shootings do not help the overall picture of schooling in America. Declining enrollment is on the surface, Behind the front and center of students in the classroom is the results of our teachers. It is a BIG MISS! Kids cannot read, write or do math at grade level. Thry know little about our nation and democracy. Bring back a revised civics class that calls out our government and political parties with the idea of truth. In addition, the kids are obese. Bring back PE! I repeat. Bring back PE! Provide more funding for free meals at school. Give funding to home education, but test the kids to prove that they are meeting basic requirements. We also need to prepare for those migrants who cannot speak English. Maybe we should add a requirement to immigration. The first to enter are those who took the time to learn English. This is an unspoken reason why our overall education is failing. Kids cannot follow in class because they do not speak the language.

There are many other issues like homelessness. Our poor paying jobs have people living in their cars or RVs. Shelters are at full capacity and our streets are littered with the rest and now, migrants. Supply and demand says housing will rise due to the many problems facing our cities.The government says shelter rose in 2023 by 6.5%. When are we going to realize that inflation index should be led by the three things that we all need everyday: energy, food and housing. The Federal Reserve does not include the trio in their phony matrix formula. Another reason to End the Fed!

In addition

Mental health, surging mob/crime in retail, guns and mass shootings (over 600 in each of the last four years), insurane - home and auto, our national debt and the rising cost of interest with that debt will all be on the table for discussion. We also see more labor unrest. Strikes will come to government unions like police, fire, prison help and infrastructure. With that said, the powers-to-be still go status quo. The military budget grows and there is no money for the listed problems above and the unknowns that will appear like the banking problems in 2023 to which still remain behind the scenes. The year 2023 under the Chinese zodiac was the Year of the Rabbit. They had it right with the world population growth. 2024 is their favorite, the Year of the Dragon. I don't put beliefs in horoscopes. I, we believe in God, but there are similarities in signs. We pray that new techniques to agriculture will solve some of our problems. After a good meal, we can think better and be more appreciative of His blessings. 

Get Gold!

Inflation is a world problem. You can see the results if you view the price and value of foreign currencies. At the same time, compare the price of gold to any currency. No experts stated that gold would end 2023 at over $2000. It did at $2071. Look at the Japanese yen. Compare to the Euro. Check out the Turkish lira. How about the poster child, Argentina? It began 2023 at 365 pesos to the dollar. It is now over 800. If those people purchased gold, they would be ahead of the game. King $Dollar is falling. It is testing 103 in a bounce. It appears to heading to test .99. The next level is .96. Each drop adds to the value of gold. We see $2500 in the tea leaves. You have to protect yourself from the reckless idiots responsible for our dollar and its place as the world's reserve currency.  Peace and Happy New Year!