Blogs are interesting in the aspect that they offer a different viewpoint. However, there is always some doubt concerning the who, who is behind the digital print and their creditability. As a blogger, I would hope that after you have read enough articles by a certain blogger, say myself, that the dots connect to reveal that the writer is providing factual information along with the opinions of that writer.
With that said, this piece will be different. The views belong to a select club I call "Billionaire Bears." It is like getting a second opinion from another doctor as to a prognosis. In this case, the stock market and our economy.
Bear Club
This unique perspective is not from your basic millionaire as I am still waiting for Michael Anthony to knock on my door, but the views from the one percenters themselves. They are all billionaires.
In a way it is nice to know that my viewpoint is connected to the connected. Maybe we don't check off exactly the same list of reasons or solutions, but we agree on many of the fine points for our distress about our economy.
George Soros
He recently sold his large position in Barrick Gold. Gold bugs, don't fret. It is not that Soros no longer believes in the gold bull, but that he sees a correction after the huge run up in prices. He will double down on gold, but at a cheaper price. What he did with those gold profits is the point of consideration. He bought 1.9 million "puts" of the SPY - ETF. He sees the market climbing on low interest rates and air. He sees another financial crisis like in 2008. He now controls 4 million puts on the SPY.
Paul Tudor Jones
Ever hear of him? This one percenter called the market crash on "Black Monday" in October 1987 when the market fell over 22% in one day. His fund owns almost eight and a half million puts on the SPY. One reason is that he cites the price of the market. Using CAPE, he says, "The market is 62% over historic average."
In addition to this respected group of traders is the companies themselves. Share buybacks are beginning to lag due to corporate debt. Low interest rates sparked the idea to raise the stock price by buying back company shares. CEOs also used low rates to finance dividends. You could create value on the cheap. Now, that technique is having consequences. Corporate debt has ballooned to over $51 trillion and rising. Companies have put themselves in a tough position because revenues cannot meet expenses. A CNBC report shows that corporate insiders are selling their company stock in record numbers, while at the same time, they are offering an optimistic analysts of their company before the media. The stock market is losing one of its biggest buyers and this is reflected in the low volumes. These behind the scenes sales do not escape some other members of the "Bear Club."
Stan Druckenmiller
He just screams, "Get out of the market!"
Carl Icahn
The "old" corporate raider, not to be confused with the "just win, baby" of Al Davis who owned the "old" Oakland Raiders. Anyway, Carl says, "I don't think you can have (near) zero interest rates for much longer without having these bubbles explode on you."
Jeff Gundlack
in an interview with Reuters said, "Sell everything. Nothing looks good."
Finally, Bill Gross, the old bond king in his monthly investment letter said, "I don't like bonds. I don't like stocks. I don't like private equity."
Bottom line: The decision is yours, but if you decide to remain invested, you are basically arguing with richer more successful people. Caveat emptor - Buyer beware!
Wednesday, September 14, 2016
Wednesday, September 7, 2016
Excuses, Excuses...
That is the genius of the Federal Reserve. Dear reader, as I see it, the real story behind low interest rates is to mask the national deficit and maintaining the status quo as they play pretend to the nation.
Quick Recap
If you recall former Fed chairman, Bernanke said low rates was the stimulus to boost unemployment back to a target of 5.1% and then, the Fed would normalize rates. What about the QE, you ask? That was considered a separate issue to save the economy from a collapse. Of course, no one attacked the Fed for causing the crisis in the first place due to the fact that the media is controlled by the status quo which gave rise to populism and the "Donald," but that is another story.
As we entered the tenure of the present chair, Yellen, the excuses have been played down to a fine art. Will the Fed drop a key adjective from the minutes? Will the phrase have a new code word to indicate that the easing period is over? Meanwhile, the federal government continues to spend with the military in 130 countries as the national deficit approaches $20 trillion. The military complex is more dangerous to our nation than all the terrorists combined. They are sending us to poverty and bankruptcy. You see, folks, the status quo never changes. They control our media to be turned to focus on the meetings of the Fed to make our lives and economy better, rather than the structural changes that our society needs to address. Whenever Yellen is questioned be it Congress or at a speech, new excuses emerge like global weakness is the reason we cannot raise rates now, as the dollar would be too strong and effect global trading.
At other times Yellen says, "We are looking at the data and as for now, the economy is growing moderately. If unemployment continues to strengthen and inflation meets our 2% target, then we will consider a rate hike." That's so much BS when the cost of food, energy and shelter are never included in their target inflation equation.
Consider this Yellen, unemployment as you chart it, is at 4.9% and that is below the original target by Ben Bernanke. However, if you told some of the truth like 93 million workers who are not employed or participating as you classify it, then you would have a valid point. If, when the employment numbers were released and 150k plus jobs were achieved and you argue over the 180K that were expected, but leave out these facts: You never mention that 4k quality mining jobs were lost or the 14k manufacturing jobs cut or even the 6k construction jobs dropped during the same period. Then you are nothing more than a manipulator in our society.
Jackson Hole, Wyoming
In the big summit Yellen made a political statement and yet, she claims the Fed is independent? Did she mention that the national debt grows at triple the GDP? No, of course not! Why would they since they consider debt and credit as economic progress. Did she mention that the original purpose of the Fed was to keep our currency liquid and in supply? No, of course not! By the way, Bonner Research did a study and found our currency circulation is in dire straights. It found that the same $11.2 trillion dollars passes around in society on a yearly basis and the reason our GDP keeps growing is through credit expansion. This is in part the velocity of money. You work and you receive a check. No cash. You deposit that check and use your own checks or credit cards to make purchases. No cash. For those who don't work, many receive some form of government help and it too comes as a direct deposit or an account on a government credit card. No cash. Pay Pal and other companies like Apple are joining the no cash bandwagon by using your smart phone to make purchases. No cash. Yellen has put negative rates on the table which means banks will tax your money even before you see it. Keep in mind that although $11.2 trillion moves around within the economy do not be misled by the amount. Bonner's research concludes that less than $2 trillion is actually in circulation and a currency supply problem could happen overnight.
The reasons are many and it is more than ending the $100 dollar bill to curb crime and drugs. It is a war on cash and your financial independence. Bonner found that if everyone in America demanded cash from their banks, the banks could only give everyone less than $1k each due to our limited money in circulation which means the Fed has failed its original declared purpose. If that sad day ever arrives, I can't wait for that excuse. And yes, I did say declared purpose because the Fed is really nothing more than socialism for the banking industry. They cover their lies with excuses. I don't know about you, but I'm sick of it. This is another reason why I say, "End the Fed!"
And The Beat Goes ON...
Walmart announced the layoff of 7,000 workers. The manufacturing index is in contraction territory at 49.4%. Macy's is closing 100 stores. How will that effect our malls, you ask? All I can say is, it ain't good. Sears is offering for sale its two crown jewels, Craftsman tools and Kenmore appliances. In addition, productivity continues to decline while labor costs rise, company operating revenues have declined for 7 straight quarters and profits for 5 straight quarters and yet, the stock market rises. There is no actual correlation between earnings and stock valuations. CEOs like Kevin Plank of Under Armour are selling their companies shares at a fever pace. He sold 2.1 million shares, but you can stream your fantasy football scores. (update to the old Sonny and Cher song.)
Finally, consider this: the stock market is suppose to look six months in advance with the current price. Now, go back to April 2015. The market was rising to a new record, but six months later, earnings declined. The excuse, it was the weather. It declined again the next quarter. The excuse, problems with longshoremen on the West coast. It declined again the next quarter. The excuse, things are getting better. It declined again in the next quarter. The excuse, the declines are less. It declined this quarter. The excuse, the declines were even less. The trend is to profits. So much BS!
I'm gonna write a song. I don't know the lyrics, but there is no doubt that it will be under the Blues. I have the title, "Excuses, Excuses."
Quick Recap
If you recall former Fed chairman, Bernanke said low rates was the stimulus to boost unemployment back to a target of 5.1% and then, the Fed would normalize rates. What about the QE, you ask? That was considered a separate issue to save the economy from a collapse. Of course, no one attacked the Fed for causing the crisis in the first place due to the fact that the media is controlled by the status quo which gave rise to populism and the "Donald," but that is another story.
As we entered the tenure of the present chair, Yellen, the excuses have been played down to a fine art. Will the Fed drop a key adjective from the minutes? Will the phrase have a new code word to indicate that the easing period is over? Meanwhile, the federal government continues to spend with the military in 130 countries as the national deficit approaches $20 trillion. The military complex is more dangerous to our nation than all the terrorists combined. They are sending us to poverty and bankruptcy. You see, folks, the status quo never changes. They control our media to be turned to focus on the meetings of the Fed to make our lives and economy better, rather than the structural changes that our society needs to address. Whenever Yellen is questioned be it Congress or at a speech, new excuses emerge like global weakness is the reason we cannot raise rates now, as the dollar would be too strong and effect global trading.
At other times Yellen says, "We are looking at the data and as for now, the economy is growing moderately. If unemployment continues to strengthen and inflation meets our 2% target, then we will consider a rate hike." That's so much BS when the cost of food, energy and shelter are never included in their target inflation equation.
Consider this Yellen, unemployment as you chart it, is at 4.9% and that is below the original target by Ben Bernanke. However, if you told some of the truth like 93 million workers who are not employed or participating as you classify it, then you would have a valid point. If, when the employment numbers were released and 150k plus jobs were achieved and you argue over the 180K that were expected, but leave out these facts: You never mention that 4k quality mining jobs were lost or the 14k manufacturing jobs cut or even the 6k construction jobs dropped during the same period. Then you are nothing more than a manipulator in our society.
Jackson Hole, Wyoming
In the big summit Yellen made a political statement and yet, she claims the Fed is independent? Did she mention that the national debt grows at triple the GDP? No, of course not! Why would they since they consider debt and credit as economic progress. Did she mention that the original purpose of the Fed was to keep our currency liquid and in supply? No, of course not! By the way, Bonner Research did a study and found our currency circulation is in dire straights. It found that the same $11.2 trillion dollars passes around in society on a yearly basis and the reason our GDP keeps growing is through credit expansion. This is in part the velocity of money. You work and you receive a check. No cash. You deposit that check and use your own checks or credit cards to make purchases. No cash. For those who don't work, many receive some form of government help and it too comes as a direct deposit or an account on a government credit card. No cash. Pay Pal and other companies like Apple are joining the no cash bandwagon by using your smart phone to make purchases. No cash. Yellen has put negative rates on the table which means banks will tax your money even before you see it. Keep in mind that although $11.2 trillion moves around within the economy do not be misled by the amount. Bonner's research concludes that less than $2 trillion is actually in circulation and a currency supply problem could happen overnight.
The reasons are many and it is more than ending the $100 dollar bill to curb crime and drugs. It is a war on cash and your financial independence. Bonner found that if everyone in America demanded cash from their banks, the banks could only give everyone less than $1k each due to our limited money in circulation which means the Fed has failed its original declared purpose. If that sad day ever arrives, I can't wait for that excuse. And yes, I did say declared purpose because the Fed is really nothing more than socialism for the banking industry. They cover their lies with excuses. I don't know about you, but I'm sick of it. This is another reason why I say, "End the Fed!"
And The Beat Goes ON...
Walmart announced the layoff of 7,000 workers. The manufacturing index is in contraction territory at 49.4%. Macy's is closing 100 stores. How will that effect our malls, you ask? All I can say is, it ain't good. Sears is offering for sale its two crown jewels, Craftsman tools and Kenmore appliances. In addition, productivity continues to decline while labor costs rise, company operating revenues have declined for 7 straight quarters and profits for 5 straight quarters and yet, the stock market rises. There is no actual correlation between earnings and stock valuations. CEOs like Kevin Plank of Under Armour are selling their companies shares at a fever pace. He sold 2.1 million shares, but you can stream your fantasy football scores. (update to the old Sonny and Cher song.)
Finally, consider this: the stock market is suppose to look six months in advance with the current price. Now, go back to April 2015. The market was rising to a new record, but six months later, earnings declined. The excuse, it was the weather. It declined again the next quarter. The excuse, problems with longshoremen on the West coast. It declined again the next quarter. The excuse, things are getting better. It declined again in the next quarter. The excuse, the declines are less. It declined this quarter. The excuse, the declines were even less. The trend is to profits. So much BS!
I'm gonna write a song. I don't know the lyrics, but there is no doubt that it will be under the Blues. I have the title, "Excuses, Excuses."
Wednesday, August 31, 2016
Jackson Hole, Wy: Proof - We Need to End the Fed
The market waited in its normal fashion before Fed news. It was up a little and down a little. After Yellen's speech, the market roared up over 100 points, but an unusual thing happened. It gave up all the gains. I had to read the speech. Maybe I could find what others saw or felt?
There it was in one of the many subsections under policy tool kits that the Fed utilizes. Yellen began talking about the limitations for action that the Fed is under. Besides being an area to pass the blame when things go awry, Yellen seeks more power in our economy using our currency as a springboard.
Excerpt:
"A serious limitation of our pre-crisis policy tool kit was its inability to generate substantially more accommodation than could be provided by a near-zero federal funds rate..."
She goes on to mention other actions and consequences like the taper tantrum. She adds that the Fed was able to reduce rates to provide accommodation by four points. Now, with the federal fund rate near-zero, Yellen seeks another direction if trouble were to arise. She had a handout to show the federal funds rate and it included rates below ZERO!
She didn't harp on it, but a picture tells a thousand words. She finishes with the need by the Fed for more power, so they can use other options in the tool kit. She would like:
* purchase other assets. This is what the Bank of Japan does as it buys stocks. Yeah, the Fed gets to pick winners and losers in our Free-market. Maybe she wants to short gold?
* improve education. Yeah, it wants the shills to sell the Fed to the masses as why we need the Fed.
* worker training, research and reduce regulation burdens. It is passing the buck to Congress when the Fed fails again! In addition, the Fed is making a political statement and yet, they claim political independence.
Reality
The Federal Reserve policies have continued a war on savers and people thrifty with money. This same low interest rate environment has especially punished seniors seeking a safe yield with bonds. It has destroyed almost all pension plans across America and the same policies have distorted our capital markets because the Fed believes their action will stimulate borrowing. Yeah, get everyone in debt.
Those idiots don't realize that when savers reach a financial goal, they will make a purchase like a car, furniture or house. When seniors have enough disposable money, they treat their family to a vacation, out to dinner or help with expenses like education. Pensions help millions of Americans so social security isn't the only option when old age appears.
Dear reader, it gets worse. The Fed would also like more power to tinker with inflation. They keep harping on their 2% targets, to which they remind you that they have not met. BS!
Back To The Future
The Fed has already tinkered with real inflation. In the real world we need food and energy everyday and a place to sleep (shelter). Yes, gas is cheaper, but the devaluation of the purchasing power of the dollar still makes it a large expense. Food prices rise and rise and rise some more. Shelter? Are you kidding me? We have the lowest home ownership since 1963 and many citizens use between 40% and 50% of their income to cover rent. People, the Fed and government do NOT consider those necessary costs in their evaluation of inflation. Get out of town! Corruption! Liars! Thieves! = Tyranny!
Yellen has put negative interest rates on the table, while at the same time, the Fed is studying reports to end the use of currency in our society. The Federal Reserve not only violates the constitution and the only money mentioned gold and silver, but now, it is studying a way to end your financial independence. The free use of money. Even if they don't activate this program, negative rates will tax your money held in banks. The hands on the clock is approaching mid-night. As the Chamber Brothers say, "Time Has Come Today.." End the Fed!
There it was in one of the many subsections under policy tool kits that the Fed utilizes. Yellen began talking about the limitations for action that the Fed is under. Besides being an area to pass the blame when things go awry, Yellen seeks more power in our economy using our currency as a springboard.
Excerpt:
"A serious limitation of our pre-crisis policy tool kit was its inability to generate substantially more accommodation than could be provided by a near-zero federal funds rate..."
She goes on to mention other actions and consequences like the taper tantrum. She adds that the Fed was able to reduce rates to provide accommodation by four points. Now, with the federal fund rate near-zero, Yellen seeks another direction if trouble were to arise. She had a handout to show the federal funds rate and it included rates below ZERO!
She didn't harp on it, but a picture tells a thousand words. She finishes with the need by the Fed for more power, so they can use other options in the tool kit. She would like:
* purchase other assets. This is what the Bank of Japan does as it buys stocks. Yeah, the Fed gets to pick winners and losers in our Free-market. Maybe she wants to short gold?
* improve education. Yeah, it wants the shills to sell the Fed to the masses as why we need the Fed.
* worker training, research and reduce regulation burdens. It is passing the buck to Congress when the Fed fails again! In addition, the Fed is making a political statement and yet, they claim political independence.
Reality
The Federal Reserve policies have continued a war on savers and people thrifty with money. This same low interest rate environment has especially punished seniors seeking a safe yield with bonds. It has destroyed almost all pension plans across America and the same policies have distorted our capital markets because the Fed believes their action will stimulate borrowing. Yeah, get everyone in debt.
Those idiots don't realize that when savers reach a financial goal, they will make a purchase like a car, furniture or house. When seniors have enough disposable money, they treat their family to a vacation, out to dinner or help with expenses like education. Pensions help millions of Americans so social security isn't the only option when old age appears.
Dear reader, it gets worse. The Fed would also like more power to tinker with inflation. They keep harping on their 2% targets, to which they remind you that they have not met. BS!
Back To The Future
The Fed has already tinkered with real inflation. In the real world we need food and energy everyday and a place to sleep (shelter). Yes, gas is cheaper, but the devaluation of the purchasing power of the dollar still makes it a large expense. Food prices rise and rise and rise some more. Shelter? Are you kidding me? We have the lowest home ownership since 1963 and many citizens use between 40% and 50% of their income to cover rent. People, the Fed and government do NOT consider those necessary costs in their evaluation of inflation. Get out of town! Corruption! Liars! Thieves! = Tyranny!
Yellen has put negative interest rates on the table, while at the same time, the Fed is studying reports to end the use of currency in our society. The Federal Reserve not only violates the constitution and the only money mentioned gold and silver, but now, it is studying a way to end your financial independence. The free use of money. Even if they don't activate this program, negative rates will tax your money held in banks. The hands on the clock is approaching mid-night. As the Chamber Brothers say, "Time Has Come Today.." End the Fed!
Wednesday, August 24, 2016
Tidbits: Election, Oil and Market-
- "Political language...is designed to make lies sound truthful..."
- George Orwell
In the middle of these dog days of summer, it is too hot to do anything. With that said and the presidential election less than 75 days away, some tidbits are on the page to be shared with you.
Pew Research Center
released a study with poll numbers. They have Clinton leading, but for me a more important aspect of their study provides an interesting point. Of all the people that they polled, more people classify themselves as Independents than ever before. In fact, the numbers convince me that if a third party were to form, it would win a national election. There is hope for America.
People claiming to be independent were 37% of the total voters.
Democrats fell to 32% and
Republicans fell to 27%.
Keep in mind the total vote for the winning candidate in the past two elections. In 2008, Obama running to make a change won with 69 million votes. In 2012, Obama said he would get jobs with "shovel ready" approach. Do you recall that? The voters realized that change meant what would be left in their wallet as we brush off the dirt to realize that we were fooled again. Obama's total fell 10 million to 59 million. When you look back, you realize that President Obama just carried on the same program as President Bush: Tax cuts for the rich, two Middle East wars with both promising to reduce the deficit and both increasing it beyond recognition. Funny thing. I'm watching an "old" John Candy movie, "Delirious" from 1991. In an early scene the camera pans the street where his character is walking. He passes the "debt" billboard. The total was $3 trillion. It is now 7x that amount. Man, they both suck!
Oil
started to rise in February of this year from $26 a barrel. It made it all the way to $51 and change. The shills were calling for $80 oil, but reality said differently. Consider the rig count on the 3rd of June of this year. The US number was 408 and the Canadian number was 41. Last Friday, the US rig count jumped to 491 and the Canadian number climbed to 121. Either the oil and gas companies are desperate for revenues or they believed the hype. In any event, more oil is on the way even in the face of declining oil prices. When you add the fact that Saudi Arabia just lowered their oil price to Asian nations to keep market share away from Iran, the picture is not pleasant for the companies, but great for consumers. After this bounce, I see oil testing the low $30s, probably after Labor Day.
To get a more accurate price in oil, you can use Fibonacci. The market just did a .68% bounce in oil.
Fibonacci
is a great tool and the man who it is named after should get more respect from our schools and society. The "golden number" will provide both a rising and declining target price for anything even football games. Anyway, subtract the present price of oil from its high.
High oil: $51. It fell to $39. It bounced to touch $48.
It should test $35 and at that point, check the volume of contracts because if they are strong, oil could fall to $27 which is the next level under the matrix system.
Market
At present, the market hit new highs, but no conviction. By that I mean volume behind the trend. In fact, the only high volume has been on the down side. Consider our economy for some insight to the direction of the market. The lowering of unemployment has been mainly in service sector jobs. In that category, the restaurant business has the most job formations. This should be reflected in the Restaurant&Bar Index and it has. The index has climbed 257% since 2009. So, what is it saying now?
Wall Street is turning bearish and I do not mean the Goldman Sachs market call for a 10% correction. Stifel has downgraded 11 restaurant stocks even with declining oil which gives consumers more discretionary money. In addition, they said Chipotle could fall 50%. Ouch!
Stifel is not a lone wolf. Andy Barish of Jefferies sees 18 months of difficult times for restaurants, especially with fears of rising wages.
A report from Elliot Wave Theory shows Total Business Sales rose from 1948 to 2007 in an almost undisturbed advance upward. However, there was a big decline in the recession of 2008. The up-trend picked up in 2009 and it went straight up until January of 2015 when it fell to zero. It has been zero ever since. Very scary! In addition, corporate investments has fallen below zero. Companies are looking to preserve cash as they don't see returns from future sales. By the way, the zero reading is a indicator for a strong move to a recession.
Fed: They want to engineer the market. Chairperson Yellen will check her strength with her speech on Friday from Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Bottom line: the GDP came in at a low 1.2%. Keep in mind back in January the shills said 3% plus. How many more times will we be misled by campaign promises and bureaucratic agencies? The count says every election from the time of Nixon. Not good.
- George Orwell
In the middle of these dog days of summer, it is too hot to do anything. With that said and the presidential election less than 75 days away, some tidbits are on the page to be shared with you.
Pew Research Center
released a study with poll numbers. They have Clinton leading, but for me a more important aspect of their study provides an interesting point. Of all the people that they polled, more people classify themselves as Independents than ever before. In fact, the numbers convince me that if a third party were to form, it would win a national election. There is hope for America.
People claiming to be independent were 37% of the total voters.
Democrats fell to 32% and
Republicans fell to 27%.
Keep in mind the total vote for the winning candidate in the past two elections. In 2008, Obama running to make a change won with 69 million votes. In 2012, Obama said he would get jobs with "shovel ready" approach. Do you recall that? The voters realized that change meant what would be left in their wallet as we brush off the dirt to realize that we were fooled again. Obama's total fell 10 million to 59 million. When you look back, you realize that President Obama just carried on the same program as President Bush: Tax cuts for the rich, two Middle East wars with both promising to reduce the deficit and both increasing it beyond recognition. Funny thing. I'm watching an "old" John Candy movie, "Delirious" from 1991. In an early scene the camera pans the street where his character is walking. He passes the "debt" billboard. The total was $3 trillion. It is now 7x that amount. Man, they both suck!
Oil
started to rise in February of this year from $26 a barrel. It made it all the way to $51 and change. The shills were calling for $80 oil, but reality said differently. Consider the rig count on the 3rd of June of this year. The US number was 408 and the Canadian number was 41. Last Friday, the US rig count jumped to 491 and the Canadian number climbed to 121. Either the oil and gas companies are desperate for revenues or they believed the hype. In any event, more oil is on the way even in the face of declining oil prices. When you add the fact that Saudi Arabia just lowered their oil price to Asian nations to keep market share away from Iran, the picture is not pleasant for the companies, but great for consumers. After this bounce, I see oil testing the low $30s, probably after Labor Day.
To get a more accurate price in oil, you can use Fibonacci. The market just did a .68% bounce in oil.
Fibonacci
is a great tool and the man who it is named after should get more respect from our schools and society. The "golden number" will provide both a rising and declining target price for anything even football games. Anyway, subtract the present price of oil from its high.
High oil: $51. It fell to $39. It bounced to touch $48.
It should test $35 and at that point, check the volume of contracts because if they are strong, oil could fall to $27 which is the next level under the matrix system.
Market
At present, the market hit new highs, but no conviction. By that I mean volume behind the trend. In fact, the only high volume has been on the down side. Consider our economy for some insight to the direction of the market. The lowering of unemployment has been mainly in service sector jobs. In that category, the restaurant business has the most job formations. This should be reflected in the Restaurant&Bar Index and it has. The index has climbed 257% since 2009. So, what is it saying now?
Wall Street is turning bearish and I do not mean the Goldman Sachs market call for a 10% correction. Stifel has downgraded 11 restaurant stocks even with declining oil which gives consumers more discretionary money. In addition, they said Chipotle could fall 50%. Ouch!
Stifel is not a lone wolf. Andy Barish of Jefferies sees 18 months of difficult times for restaurants, especially with fears of rising wages.
A report from Elliot Wave Theory shows Total Business Sales rose from 1948 to 2007 in an almost undisturbed advance upward. However, there was a big decline in the recession of 2008. The up-trend picked up in 2009 and it went straight up until January of 2015 when it fell to zero. It has been zero ever since. Very scary! In addition, corporate investments has fallen below zero. Companies are looking to preserve cash as they don't see returns from future sales. By the way, the zero reading is a indicator for a strong move to a recession.
Fed: They want to engineer the market. Chairperson Yellen will check her strength with her speech on Friday from Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Bottom line: the GDP came in at a low 1.2%. Keep in mind back in January the shills said 3% plus. How many more times will we be misled by campaign promises and bureaucratic agencies? The count says every election from the time of Nixon. Not good.
Wednesday, August 17, 2016
Trifecta Is A Gambling Term
On Thursday of last week, three market components, the Dow, Nasdaq and the S&P all hit new highs on the same day. The shills called it the "Trifecta!" Dear reader, trifecta is a gambling term pertaining to the track where you call the finish of the top three horses in a race or the winner of the first three races during the day. It gets done, but rarely and that is another reason why the tautology in gambling is the house always wins. In terminology of the market it is this, "the purpose of the market is to take the most amount of money from the most amount of people in the shortest amount of time."
The market is displaying a gambling mania and I don't see it ending well, especially with September looming on the horizon.
However, the market is known to look six months in advance and with the latest price action, the bulls could be on to something. Then again, if that is so much more BS, caution is in order. Let us glimpse a few segments of the market for a clearer picture and filter out the noise.
Corporate debt
is within a whisker of the high it reached in 2007 before the crash at $51 trillion, and still climbing. Ironic thing, defaults have also surged 50% from last year. The leader in defaults has been the oil and gas industry. A few weeks ago I predicted the present bounce in oil. I see it ending after Labor Day and yet, the oil rig count has gone up for the seventh week in a row. A test of the lows could happen as well as a test of the financial durability of companies in the oil and gas business. I see more defaults. Combining debt and low oil prices, they are not building blocks for a higher market.
Poor, Middle and Upper Class
Everyone shops, but according to their means. Here is the latest from where our society shops.
The poor and middle class go to Walmart. If the economy is doing so well as Hillary and President Obama says, how come Walmart is down 32%?
If the wealthy are out spending their big bucks, how come Macy's is closing 100 stores? How can the shills explain the stock is down 29%?
My findings cover our entertainment dollars too. If content is everything, how come Viacom is down 77%? Ouch! Folks, don't say it is the conflict for control because a number that big says a lot more than who gets the biggest pay check.
Retail
everyone knows the malls are in trouble and with Sears and Macy's closing stores, the outlook isn't rosy as the bulls claim with the market hitting new highs. Look at Staples! It is generally in small shopping centers or stand alone buildings. The stock is down 81%. Double ouch!!
Mining
Before you dig, plow or get a permit, you need to know that you have equipment. Caterpillar is the industry leader. How can you explain the stock is down 49%? BHP just had its worst quarter, ever.
This quick survey of our economy tells you more truth than the price action of the market. Maybe the market has to lure you in to get the most amount of money in the shortest amount of time? I can't answer that because I am not a master trader.
Meanwhile, the Bulls like Yellen, yell to look to the future GDP and not the lackluster present GDP numbers. The Bulls scream to look to the future of corporate earnings rather than the fact that earnings have declined for five straight quarters in a row. They pound out that every dip is a buying opportunity to which I now will take a closer look because there is some truth within the market if you know where to look.
Volume
to me is one of the most important aspects the market tells you. When the NASDAQ hit its high, it did it with trading of 1,490 billion shares on the up day. However, when Nasdaq declined on the 27th of June, it fell with 3,9 billion shares on the down day. It is telling you that the up day is distribution because on the down days, they are all trying to get out.
You can see this same point in the small caps. The IWM was up with 12 million shares and down with 19 million shares.
The strength and conviction in the market is on the downside and that is where I see the market going.
The market is displaying a gambling mania and I don't see it ending well, especially with September looming on the horizon.
However, the market is known to look six months in advance and with the latest price action, the bulls could be on to something. Then again, if that is so much more BS, caution is in order. Let us glimpse a few segments of the market for a clearer picture and filter out the noise.
Corporate debt
is within a whisker of the high it reached in 2007 before the crash at $51 trillion, and still climbing. Ironic thing, defaults have also surged 50% from last year. The leader in defaults has been the oil and gas industry. A few weeks ago I predicted the present bounce in oil. I see it ending after Labor Day and yet, the oil rig count has gone up for the seventh week in a row. A test of the lows could happen as well as a test of the financial durability of companies in the oil and gas business. I see more defaults. Combining debt and low oil prices, they are not building blocks for a higher market.
Poor, Middle and Upper Class
Everyone shops, but according to their means. Here is the latest from where our society shops.
The poor and middle class go to Walmart. If the economy is doing so well as Hillary and President Obama says, how come Walmart is down 32%?
If the wealthy are out spending their big bucks, how come Macy's is closing 100 stores? How can the shills explain the stock is down 29%?
My findings cover our entertainment dollars too. If content is everything, how come Viacom is down 77%? Ouch! Folks, don't say it is the conflict for control because a number that big says a lot more than who gets the biggest pay check.
Retail
everyone knows the malls are in trouble and with Sears and Macy's closing stores, the outlook isn't rosy as the bulls claim with the market hitting new highs. Look at Staples! It is generally in small shopping centers or stand alone buildings. The stock is down 81%. Double ouch!!
Mining
Before you dig, plow or get a permit, you need to know that you have equipment. Caterpillar is the industry leader. How can you explain the stock is down 49%? BHP just had its worst quarter, ever.
This quick survey of our economy tells you more truth than the price action of the market. Maybe the market has to lure you in to get the most amount of money in the shortest amount of time? I can't answer that because I am not a master trader.
Meanwhile, the Bulls like Yellen, yell to look to the future GDP and not the lackluster present GDP numbers. The Bulls scream to look to the future of corporate earnings rather than the fact that earnings have declined for five straight quarters in a row. They pound out that every dip is a buying opportunity to which I now will take a closer look because there is some truth within the market if you know where to look.
Volume
to me is one of the most important aspects the market tells you. When the NASDAQ hit its high, it did it with trading of 1,490 billion shares on the up day. However, when Nasdaq declined on the 27th of June, it fell with 3,9 billion shares on the down day. It is telling you that the up day is distribution because on the down days, they are all trying to get out.
You can see this same point in the small caps. The IWM was up with 12 million shares and down with 19 million shares.
The strength and conviction in the market is on the downside and that is where I see the market going.
Wednesday, August 10, 2016
Greater Fool Theory
- "A sucker is born every minute."
- American Promoter, Gamblers and Confidence Men
Do you know who is the greatest sucker? No, it is not the guy who paid $4,000 for a watermelon in Japan. This is 1,000 times worse. Clue: Lucky you and me, it is taking place in the here and now. Need another clue? How about some background music like on an elevator while you think about it? By the way this coach is going down just like our economy because of the destructive nature of the subject.
Badfinger, "Would you walk away from a fool and his money. If you want it, here it is, come and get it. But you better hurry 'cause its going fast."
- American Promoter, Gamblers and Confidence Men
Do you know who is the greatest sucker? No, it is not the guy who paid $4,000 for a watermelon in Japan. This is 1,000 times worse. Clue: Lucky you and me, it is taking place in the here and now. Need another clue? How about some background music like on an elevator while you think about it? By the way this coach is going down just like our economy because of the destructive nature of the subject.
Badfinger, "Would you walk away from a fool and his money. If you want it, here it is, come and get it. But you better hurry 'cause its going fast."
Want better singers for your ride down? How about the Beatles?
"Did I hear you say that there must be a catch. Will you walk away from a fool and his money..."
Smart money is jumping on every new negative issue because they realize that they have a safety cushion. The issue is backed by the greater fool to which the smart money can dump. It is the best con because the fool is so stupid that there is actually no "con" at all. For those of you who put the clues together, congrats. The answer is the European Central Bank who is subsidizing anyone who borrows from them.
Hamilton In Vogue
He is the biggest on Broadway, but interest rates haven't been this low since our first Secretary of the Treasury was in office. In fact, Bank of America released a study showing that rates are at 5,000 year lows.
Yes, there are other negative issues in the market. Japan has the most, but the Bank of Japan buys the entire issue. The ECB sponsors both public and private debt, and this leaves some open tranches to be filled.
Who Wants To Be A Millionaire?
The issues in question are in terms of billions of dollars and for example, say the issue moves thirty basis points. The original issue was plus 0.3%. It paid pittance, but returned full principle. Now, the smart money grabs the opening bid. When the issue hits the open market, the fool moves the bond into negative territory. Someone just made $30 million dollars. They cash out and leave the "fool" holding an issue that will pay less than the cost. The economy gains nothing. Society gains nothing except a few hedge fund managers or money institutions who picked the pocket of stupid policymakers. By the way, some day, down the road, the ECB balance sheet will be technically bankrupt. They don't fret. They will just print more even though the citizens of the union will oppose this concept and approach. So much for democracy, but then again, after the Brexit vote, the EU will be in the mood to appease all members and the printing presses will be working overtime!
It is like this quote from Alan Greenspan, "There is no other agency of government which can overrule actions that we take."
US Negative?
Yes. Foreign hedge funds have been buying US Treasuries and even with currency differences, they have made money until now. US yields have fallen so low that they cannot produce positive yields after returning to their native currency. Is this the harbinger of negative rates in the US? Heaven forbid!
What It All Means
We may know what they are doing, but they write the rules. Even if we had the money, the central banks and treasurer's won't allow us to participate in their auctions. This leaves the question: who really is the fool? Maybe it is us for allowing them to control our financial independence.
It is like this quote from Alan Greenspan, "There is no other agency of government which can overrule actions that we take."
US Negative?
Yes. Foreign hedge funds have been buying US Treasuries and even with currency differences, they have made money until now. US yields have fallen so low that they cannot produce positive yields after returning to their native currency. Is this the harbinger of negative rates in the US? Heaven forbid!
What It All Means
We may know what they are doing, but they write the rules. Even if we had the money, the central banks and treasurer's won't allow us to participate in their auctions. This leaves the question: who really is the fool? Maybe it is us for allowing them to control our financial independence.
But hey, who listens to populism? These financial engineers aren't elected and are not subject to democratic elections. Together, this is another reason to End the Fed!
Wednesday, August 3, 2016
Coming Attack On $Gold
Don't ask me how I know because it is like the Boston hit, More Than A Feeling. In addition, I have looked at the price action along with the lies of the various fiat banks who all of a sudden are behind the gold surge. They have publically cited $1400 in raising their gold call for 2016. These banks, led by JPMorgan Chase are fiat wolves disguised under the banner of a golden fleece.
First Signs
was the sharp rise in gold after gold fell $100 dollars in early June of this year. The shorts had to cover, but I believe that they changed their tactic at that time. They became buyers of gold. Now, they have a dual approach to drive down the action in gold before it becomes mainstream. They are working with the natural market forces. Let us take a closer look.
Brexit
drove the pound lower and the euro will follow as soon as stimulus becomes apparent. This has led a flight to safety. The dollar is again on the rise. It will probably test the $100. level. A strong dollar hurts commodity prices. While this is happening in the West, the yen is slowly losing steam because of all the excess stimulus. This only makes the dollar even stronger. This fundamental is aiding the attackers.
Negative Rates
is a fundamental reason in helping gold rise. The old argument that gold pays no interest is lost in the shuffle due to the fact that corrupt central bank manipulation of interest rates to negative, only makes gold the best game in town.
So, the fiat people will use the strong dollar along with their purchased contracts to sell gold. They want to derail the gold surge before everyone realizes that if they bought into gold, they would have made a lot of money due to the devaluation of their currency. In addition...
X - Factor
The Fed released their statement on Wednesday. As expected there was no change, however Yellen did yell that the Fed still is going to raise rates. She will try to control the market, but action speaks louder than words. The "no action" boosted the metals. The attacking fiat institutions will be looking at the price action as well as the volume after the announcement. This could delay their plan, but like I stated, something is in the works.
There is "Good" and "Bad" with Gold ETFs and it could turn "Ugly"...
Dear reader, when gold rises, gold ETFs have to buy to balance their book. Conversely, when gold declines, those same ETFs must sell which magnifies any price action. The fiat people know this and they will use it to their advantage.
Now, getting deeper into the "first signs" dear reader, you might understand what I'm seeing.
First Feelers
hit the market two Friday's ago. All of a sudden, gold dropped $20 dollars in mid-day trading. The attackers were testing the strength of gold after it failed to breach $1400. They sought out any buyers of gold if it fell to a certain price. The buyers appeared and gold quickly recovered. No one paid this price action any attention other than myself. Since that time gold has slowly drifted lower and I feel that the end of July will be the D-Day. Friday is the best day for the attack because the world markets close before the US market. The fiat people will sell their gold, use the strength of the dollar along with their shills to decry gold and then, flood the market with a ton of shorts. Weak money will help the decline. Gold could fall to $1260. They will have the entire weekend to tie the political landscape to spin their case against gold. The following Monday, they will add to their short position to kill gold in 2016.
As it turned out, I was wrong about the timing. One has to remember that at the end of the month and the first days of the new calendar, mutual funds buy. The attackers did not want to fight the accommodating Fed. They could launch on this Friday, but it will happen before the middle of August. Let me tell folks. It will not work!
If this scenario pans out, we back up our truck and load it up. We will turn the tables on these corrupt fiat people. We overwhelm them and force them to cover not to mention the tidy profit that we will be riding upon. This will drive the price action to break the $1400 dollar barrier. This in turn will attract new buyers. A new surge will result and I see gold testing $1500 before 2016 ends. As "old" Shakespeare would say, "The die has been cast."
First Signs
was the sharp rise in gold after gold fell $100 dollars in early June of this year. The shorts had to cover, but I believe that they changed their tactic at that time. They became buyers of gold. Now, they have a dual approach to drive down the action in gold before it becomes mainstream. They are working with the natural market forces. Let us take a closer look.
Brexit
drove the pound lower and the euro will follow as soon as stimulus becomes apparent. This has led a flight to safety. The dollar is again on the rise. It will probably test the $100. level. A strong dollar hurts commodity prices. While this is happening in the West, the yen is slowly losing steam because of all the excess stimulus. This only makes the dollar even stronger. This fundamental is aiding the attackers.
Negative Rates
is a fundamental reason in helping gold rise. The old argument that gold pays no interest is lost in the shuffle due to the fact that corrupt central bank manipulation of interest rates to negative, only makes gold the best game in town.
So, the fiat people will use the strong dollar along with their purchased contracts to sell gold. They want to derail the gold surge before everyone realizes that if they bought into gold, they would have made a lot of money due to the devaluation of their currency. In addition...
X - Factor
The Fed released their statement on Wednesday. As expected there was no change, however Yellen did yell that the Fed still is going to raise rates. She will try to control the market, but action speaks louder than words. The "no action" boosted the metals. The attacking fiat institutions will be looking at the price action as well as the volume after the announcement. This could delay their plan, but like I stated, something is in the works.
There is "Good" and "Bad" with Gold ETFs and it could turn "Ugly"...
Dear reader, when gold rises, gold ETFs have to buy to balance their book. Conversely, when gold declines, those same ETFs must sell which magnifies any price action. The fiat people know this and they will use it to their advantage.
Now, getting deeper into the "first signs" dear reader, you might understand what I'm seeing.
First Feelers
hit the market two Friday's ago. All of a sudden, gold dropped $20 dollars in mid-day trading. The attackers were testing the strength of gold after it failed to breach $1400. They sought out any buyers of gold if it fell to a certain price. The buyers appeared and gold quickly recovered. No one paid this price action any attention other than myself. Since that time gold has slowly drifted lower and I feel that the end of July will be the D-Day. Friday is the best day for the attack because the world markets close before the US market. The fiat people will sell their gold, use the strength of the dollar along with their shills to decry gold and then, flood the market with a ton of shorts. Weak money will help the decline. Gold could fall to $1260. They will have the entire weekend to tie the political landscape to spin their case against gold. The following Monday, they will add to their short position to kill gold in 2016.
As it turned out, I was wrong about the timing. One has to remember that at the end of the month and the first days of the new calendar, mutual funds buy. The attackers did not want to fight the accommodating Fed. They could launch on this Friday, but it will happen before the middle of August. Let me tell folks. It will not work!
If this scenario pans out, we back up our truck and load it up. We will turn the tables on these corrupt fiat people. We overwhelm them and force them to cover not to mention the tidy profit that we will be riding upon. This will drive the price action to break the $1400 dollar barrier. This in turn will attract new buyers. A new surge will result and I see gold testing $1500 before 2016 ends. As "old" Shakespeare would say, "The die has been cast."
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)