There are many points converging in the market as we enter the month of May. If you connect the dots, the picture suggests a correction is beginning. In fact, since the market peaked, it has been in a sideways or consolation range. The trading volume has been stronger on the down side with less and less buyers on the upside. The reason? To each their own fear, but here are a few.
Treasury:
The Republicans claim to be conservative with their approach to government to which, they want smaller, less taxes and less spending. The reality is the GOP utilizes a liberal approach. They are open minded to spend on the military, cut taxes for the rich and sink the government with debt. Of the three worst spenders in US history, two are republicans, Reagan and Bush. Obama leads for the moment, but Trump will trump them all. The treasury revealed that it set a record for bonds in the first quarter(Jan-March) at $488 billion. At this pace, Trump will sink the US with $trillion dollar shortfalls. Our debt is growing at 3X our revenues. The deficit will be so bad that the US could lose its reserve currency standing. If that happens, be prepared for $6.00 a gallon gas. By the way, China is looking to take that position. They offer gold for oil if the seller doesn't want the Chinese currency.
Energy:
...continues to want higher prices. Oil has been on an uptick since January of this year. Gasoline as you should already be aware, is up .65 cents in the past two months. It currently rests at $2.12, but if is rises pass $2.18, watch out! Keep in mind the driving season begins at the end of May. Even the Federal Reserve can't lie about inflation. They stated that inflation "just" met their 2% target. Oh, really? What about the price of homes? The cost to rent? Food? Insurance? Medical? Every thing that we buy. 2% = Get Real!
Fed:
Speaking of the devils, they will probably not announce a quarter point increase in the cost of money later today. However, everyone feels a rate hike is coming in June. This will add to housing costs and push more buyers out of the market. Even if I'm wrong, this spring, there is no springing into housing. Recent data indicates a 3% drop in signed contracts for sale which follows three straight months of declining sales. However, the market still does not believe in the Fed's strengthening policy. The consensus is the Fed will weaken along with the economy. The signs are in place.
Consider Goldman Sacks:
At one time, a few years back, they had 500 traders on the floor. Today, they have three as in 1,2,3. -tres. They have more people looking into government regulations than market traders.
Even with a record budget for military spending to which the military complex is bankrupting our nation, defense stocks are in correction mode. They are down 15% in the past two weeks.
Autos:
Nissan revealed a 28% sales decline for April. Ford lost 15% in sales with sedans. It is so bad that Ford will no longer make sedans. They are exiting the market. The maker of the greatest sedan, the Mustang will no longer create sedans. WOW! Tesla failed to meet production levels - again and again it continues to burn through cash at $1 billion a month!
Apple:
Will give the market a push as it made its numbers to which also effects its suppliers. Additionally, Apple will buy back another $100 billion of its shares and it stated that it still has in effect the planned purchase of another $210 billion making a total of $310 billion. That is support in capital letters. This is Trump's corporate tax gift in action. Money for the rich as the nation goes bankrupt! To be honest, I approve of the tax cut as I hoped that companies would manufacture here in the US, however it does not seem to be happening.
Teacher Strikes:
It is now in five states as Arizona and New Mexico joined the party. This is spreading in another version of "me too." Soon, police, sanitation and fire fighters will be asking for more as the finances of states get busted and they cannot run deficits. Pension problems will resurface.
The current expansion for the stock market and the economy is 106 months. This is tied for the second longest in history. Political officials will take bows on this point, but Sebastian does not. He has a litany of issues like our music industry is dying. Just yesterday, Gibson filed for bankruptcy. Our kids can't buy toys because there is no longer a Toy 'R Us. Our malls only have rats running around, especially where there was a Subway store as 500 are closing - no lunch for you! In addition, he reminds us that this so-called progress fails to include deficits, environmental issues like air and water, to which are never subtracted to give a clearer picture of the overall standard of living in America. Our economists know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.
Wednesday, May 2, 2018
Wednesday, April 25, 2018
Employment Picture: Many Down - Some Up
The Bureau of Labor Stats(BLS) released its employment forecast for the US up to 2025. Funny, these bureaucrats can tell you where to go for a job and how much it will pay, but they never cite a reason why jobs disappear. However, Sebastian knows. They were undercut by foreign imports under the lie of free trade. Anyway, we all know that our retail industry is in serious danger. The one vocal point is items in stores are subject to a sales tax and consumers can by-pass this cost by purchasing over the internet. The Supreme Court holds the future with its decision on this point. If the internet sales get taxed, retail could survive. If not, it will collapse and I predict this failure will sink the economy into a deep, deep recession. By the way, if that implies that all is well at the moment and it does seem things are better, there are still 14 states that have not yet recovered from the housing crisis of 2008.
With all that said, here is the BLS data. The findings show more jobs will disappear than are created, but there are areas for growth in the future.
It is the beginning of baseball season and in honor of the late, great Mel Allen
Its...going, going, gone!
*Systems Operators, Chemical Plant Operator: = -9%
*Locomotive workers, Railroad workers: = -3%
*Secretaries, Administrative Assistants: = -7%
*Machinist, Tool & Die Makers: = -7%
*Water & Wastewater Treatment Operator: = -3%
*Desktop Publishing: = -14%
*Insurance: = -5%
*Postal service: = -13%
*Labor Relations: = -8%(No union jobs - my input)
*Adult Literacy Teacher: = -5%
*Advertising Sales: = -4%
*RETAIL( This is so wrong- the figure is already higher : = -5%
*Correctional Officers & Bailiffs: This is another misleading stat. States are seeking to lower costs and these jobs will move with a new name and of course, lower pay: = -7%
As stated there is some good news - don't be misled by the high stat percentage as many of these fields are new endeavors.
Come and get'em! Hot off the grill!
*Solar: = +105%
*Windtechs, Turbines: = +96%
*Home Health Aid: = +41%
*Nurses: = +31%
*Medical Therapy: = +29%
*Occupational Therapy(recover from accident) : = +28%
*Math & Stats: = +33%(lot of jobs - do your homework)
*Genetic Councilor(medical history): = +29%
*Physical Therapy: = +30%
*Software Development(learn code): = +28%
What I didn't see here was robotics which is already effecting many fields and with the rise of self-service check-outs, the loss of grocery jobs unless this is considered retail which makes the above 5% figure way, way off. Teenagers will have a hard time seeking work to help pay for their future education. If I was young, I would get into alternative energy in a big way. Looking for a better job, I have two words with the same wish - GOOD LUCK!
With all that said, here is the BLS data. The findings show more jobs will disappear than are created, but there are areas for growth in the future.
It is the beginning of baseball season and in honor of the late, great Mel Allen
Its...going, going, gone!
*Systems Operators, Chemical Plant Operator: = -9%
*Locomotive workers, Railroad workers: = -3%
*Secretaries, Administrative Assistants: = -7%
*Machinist, Tool & Die Makers: = -7%
*Water & Wastewater Treatment Operator: = -3%
*Desktop Publishing: = -14%
*Insurance: = -5%
*Postal service: = -13%
*Labor Relations: = -8%(No union jobs - my input)
*Adult Literacy Teacher: = -5%
*Advertising Sales: = -4%
*RETAIL( This is so wrong- the figure is already higher : = -5%
*Correctional Officers & Bailiffs: This is another misleading stat. States are seeking to lower costs and these jobs will move with a new name and of course, lower pay: = -7%
As stated there is some good news - don't be misled by the high stat percentage as many of these fields are new endeavors.
Come and get'em! Hot off the grill!
*Solar: = +105%
*Windtechs, Turbines: = +96%
*Home Health Aid: = +41%
*Nurses: = +31%
*Medical Therapy: = +29%
*Occupational Therapy(recover from accident) : = +28%
*Math & Stats: = +33%(lot of jobs - do your homework)
*Genetic Councilor(medical history): = +29%
*Physical Therapy: = +30%
*Software Development(learn code): = +28%
What I didn't see here was robotics which is already effecting many fields and with the rise of self-service check-outs, the loss of grocery jobs unless this is considered retail which makes the above 5% figure way, way off. Teenagers will have a hard time seeking work to help pay for their future education. If I was young, I would get into alternative energy in a big way. Looking for a better job, I have two words with the same wish - GOOD LUCK!
Wednesday, April 18, 2018
China: Aiming At Its Own Foot
When a political party controls government, they throw money around to their supporters, especially spoils to its loyal members. Many of those self-serving drones get bureaucratic jobs. They sit around and try to develop a means to maintain their position with living off the dole. To make matters worse, in many cases, the position comes with a pension too. Europe wrote the playbook for all to follow.
The Chinese Communist Party is second to no one in broadening these bureaucratic agencies. Now, those party lap-dogs have presented the big-wigs with an idea.
Social Credit System
In their thinking this program will coalesce the nation. The social engineers of Dystopia will give it a nice name like Congress when it passes a dangerous idea. If you think America is diverse with 50 states that consists of a North, South, Mid-west and West regions of thought, consider China with no one central language, a vast history of regional differences with an equal history of revolution until one big dog takes control. The Chinese Communist are the alpha dog today, but prosperity will kill it.
In a negative spin of John Kennedy's famous speech, "Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country," the Chinese will commence a social credit system.
Big Brother in action...
The Chinese will gather info on all its citizens like NSA did illegally in the US. They will track your smartphone use, your computer searches, your social media, job, finances, family and friends. They will tell their trading partners that they are going after the nation's black market which is huge and managers who cut corners in license agreements, intellectual theft, disregard for patents with clone products, etc. The spin will sound great, but the real purpose is to find potential enemies of state. To eliminate any competition to their authority and status quo. In essence, they will copy the World Wrestling Federation creed: Lie, cheat, steal to stay on top.
Anyway, the Chinese will set up a standard that all can follow, provided that you do as told. If you are rated a good citizen you can enjoy good financing to get a house, a car and travel. If you or if any of your family or associates are rated poorly, you will be locked out of financing, job promotions, airline tickets, a car license and or, passport. In a nation that uses technology to pay for products and services like with a smartphone, poorly rated people will be locked out. You will be a prisoner walking the streets. You will be destined to low level jobs and you will be looked down upon by the nation as evil to the country and state. You are not worthy.
Consider for a moment, the present state of Singapore? The city has cameras everywhere. If you are seen chewing gum, you will be fined. If spotted throwing your gum on the street for example, it is automatic JAIL TIME! Jay walking is also considered a serious crime as well as pot smoking. As you can see, the concept already has a foot hold in Asia. History has examples. In England around 1600, they had on the law books, hundreds of crimes that ended in jail or death by hanging. If caught stealing bread, you would have "Dickens" to pay. No wonder many came to America and the state of Georgia was a choice between the rope and life.
Back to China: the nation could easily end currency in daily transactions like fools are considering in the US. If a poorly rated citizen is locked out of a smartphone, that person would suffer immensely. If enough of them get together, they will rise up against the state. Then, maybe, a new dog will be running the pound? I can only hope that the idiots running our government do not copy the idiots in China.
The Chinese Communist Party is second to no one in broadening these bureaucratic agencies. Now, those party lap-dogs have presented the big-wigs with an idea.
Social Credit System
In their thinking this program will coalesce the nation. The social engineers of Dystopia will give it a nice name like Congress when it passes a dangerous idea. If you think America is diverse with 50 states that consists of a North, South, Mid-west and West regions of thought, consider China with no one central language, a vast history of regional differences with an equal history of revolution until one big dog takes control. The Chinese Communist are the alpha dog today, but prosperity will kill it.
In a negative spin of John Kennedy's famous speech, "Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country," the Chinese will commence a social credit system.
Big Brother in action...
The Chinese will gather info on all its citizens like NSA did illegally in the US. They will track your smartphone use, your computer searches, your social media, job, finances, family and friends. They will tell their trading partners that they are going after the nation's black market which is huge and managers who cut corners in license agreements, intellectual theft, disregard for patents with clone products, etc. The spin will sound great, but the real purpose is to find potential enemies of state. To eliminate any competition to their authority and status quo. In essence, they will copy the World Wrestling Federation creed: Lie, cheat, steal to stay on top.
Anyway, the Chinese will set up a standard that all can follow, provided that you do as told. If you are rated a good citizen you can enjoy good financing to get a house, a car and travel. If you or if any of your family or associates are rated poorly, you will be locked out of financing, job promotions, airline tickets, a car license and or, passport. In a nation that uses technology to pay for products and services like with a smartphone, poorly rated people will be locked out. You will be a prisoner walking the streets. You will be destined to low level jobs and you will be looked down upon by the nation as evil to the country and state. You are not worthy.
Consider for a moment, the present state of Singapore? The city has cameras everywhere. If you are seen chewing gum, you will be fined. If spotted throwing your gum on the street for example, it is automatic JAIL TIME! Jay walking is also considered a serious crime as well as pot smoking. As you can see, the concept already has a foot hold in Asia. History has examples. In England around 1600, they had on the law books, hundreds of crimes that ended in jail or death by hanging. If caught stealing bread, you would have "Dickens" to pay. No wonder many came to America and the state of Georgia was a choice between the rope and life.
Back to China: the nation could easily end currency in daily transactions like fools are considering in the US. If a poorly rated citizen is locked out of a smartphone, that person would suffer immensely. If enough of them get together, they will rise up against the state. Then, maybe, a new dog will be running the pound? I can only hope that the idiots running our government do not copy the idiots in China.
Wednesday, April 11, 2018
What Would You Do?
I was attending a writing class recently, and yes, one never outgrows an ability to grow and improve. The teacher asked us to first think about all the various types of government and then, to put forth what we as individuals feel is the best form. The idea was in setting the groundwork for a future work be it fiction or non-fiction. What would you do?
The first idea that popped into my head was the word, "Utopia." It is central to any thinker of the dismal science. Man has always struggled to find one. Those of us who believe in God think the only utopia is heaven. While we journey on earth, we try to follow the teachings centered on love with the hope to obtain paradise. However, there are moments within history when leaders arose that put into place government that promoted the general welfare and allowed all to pursue happiness. The sins of man always seem to re-capture leadership positions and thus, no government has a legacy that can be duplicated.
Man has tried all the ideas pertaining to government, but with little success. Democracy seems to hold within its format the most promise, but its progression is very, very slow. This aspect gave birth to the title and mission of this blog, The Evolution of Democracy.
The inherit problem for democracy lies in its ability to get ordinary citizens into the seat of leadership. Not only that, even if one was to emerge, is that person the right person whose views reflect the populous?
Since I believe that all things are connected which is the theme to my unpublished work, the first connection to government is money and land. Consider the first struggles that are attached to the formation of modern democracy. The Magna Carter was a battle between the king and his aristocratic peers. The US began has a battle due to taxes placed by a king. Whenever outbreaks occurred, whether it established a new government or not, you will always find that the plight of ordinary citizens never changes. The French and Russian revolutions are perfect examples. The citizens fought and died and when the graves were filled, the vacuum in government was filled with people who acted like the government that was just deposed. They enacted self-serving laws and self-promotion.
The Rise of the Oligarchy
This is the weakness in democracy. When the founding fathers of the US began deliberations to form government, they feared democracy because they thought people would vote themselves benefits, especially the majority over the minority. Their fears were only half-right. John Adams had the other half. The reason we have two houses in Congress was because Adams feared that only the wealthy would hold office in the Senate. He hoped the house would have ordinary citizens. We now know differently. The weakness in the US democracy is it is controlled in both houses by the rich and large landholders who voted themselves benefits at the expense of everyone else. They are no different than the oligarchs who run Russia or the Chinese Communist party that controls China. There is no true democracy anywhere on earth.
So, if I were to throw out an idea, it would follow the democratic principles, but the citizens could look for certain sign posts to see if those principles were being followed. How many ordinary citizens have progressed on the political rung to represent the people? It is the same old, same old leadership of rich lawyers, landowners and similar?
Government needs to protect its citizens from foreign powers. This does not mean that the nation actively engages in international affairs. It is never the police force of the world. It enacts laws that benefit the majority, but sunsets them to evaluate their fairness to the minority. When dealing in trade with the global community, all aspects of a product/sale must be evaluated. Since I also believe that our operating system of capitalism is a plus, the playing field of any trade must be put into perspective. It must be evaluated to our currency to which should return to gold, silver and other precious metals for backing strength. When our nation was on the gold standard, it was extremely foolish to allow convertibility. Nations stole our gold. Who wouldn't take gold for paper? This led to the destruction of our currency. Why did our so-called leaders allow manipulative, fiat paper which does not match gold on any level to be exchanged for our gold? Idiots!
Anyway, our individual companies must have the help of our government because global nations utilize state sponsored enterprise. This makes any trade unfair for our individual companies. By the way, capitalism has its sins and those are man's sins like greed, coercion, fraud, ego, amongst others. This is not the time and place to address them. The government should strive to make the country self-sufficient as best as it is able. Whomever is elected, they should not ban opposing party ideas because they come from political opposition. Our seniors would be destitute if it weren't for the concept of social security which is a socialist contribution. A liberal gave us our creed that all men are created equal or else we would have collapsed with race riots ages ago. Conservative thinking gave us a strong currency in the gold standard, but there are no real conservatives in government anymore. My mother's words of wisdom, "There are good and bad in all groups." It should be central to government leadership.
Our nation developed individually in the form of states, but federal government destroys states rights. This needs to be amended to allow each its own sphere of influence. The government should not seek to expand and always operate in economic balance of revenues to expenses. The government should do more for the school systems with all schools, no matter parochial or public, to receive funding because all of their students are citizens of the same state. The application of rules and regulations of the government should be citizens first with the hope to live and let live in developing our individual pursuit of happiness with peace and love throughout the land.
What would you do?
P.S. I did not address the jurisdiction or power of the judicial branch of government. The reason is that I have an answer, but it is to be revealed if I ever get my unpublished work, published.
The first idea that popped into my head was the word, "Utopia." It is central to any thinker of the dismal science. Man has always struggled to find one. Those of us who believe in God think the only utopia is heaven. While we journey on earth, we try to follow the teachings centered on love with the hope to obtain paradise. However, there are moments within history when leaders arose that put into place government that promoted the general welfare and allowed all to pursue happiness. The sins of man always seem to re-capture leadership positions and thus, no government has a legacy that can be duplicated.
Man has tried all the ideas pertaining to government, but with little success. Democracy seems to hold within its format the most promise, but its progression is very, very slow. This aspect gave birth to the title and mission of this blog, The Evolution of Democracy.
The inherit problem for democracy lies in its ability to get ordinary citizens into the seat of leadership. Not only that, even if one was to emerge, is that person the right person whose views reflect the populous?
Since I believe that all things are connected which is the theme to my unpublished work, the first connection to government is money and land. Consider the first struggles that are attached to the formation of modern democracy. The Magna Carter was a battle between the king and his aristocratic peers. The US began has a battle due to taxes placed by a king. Whenever outbreaks occurred, whether it established a new government or not, you will always find that the plight of ordinary citizens never changes. The French and Russian revolutions are perfect examples. The citizens fought and died and when the graves were filled, the vacuum in government was filled with people who acted like the government that was just deposed. They enacted self-serving laws and self-promotion.
The Rise of the Oligarchy
This is the weakness in democracy. When the founding fathers of the US began deliberations to form government, they feared democracy because they thought people would vote themselves benefits, especially the majority over the minority. Their fears were only half-right. John Adams had the other half. The reason we have two houses in Congress was because Adams feared that only the wealthy would hold office in the Senate. He hoped the house would have ordinary citizens. We now know differently. The weakness in the US democracy is it is controlled in both houses by the rich and large landholders who voted themselves benefits at the expense of everyone else. They are no different than the oligarchs who run Russia or the Chinese Communist party that controls China. There is no true democracy anywhere on earth.
So, if I were to throw out an idea, it would follow the democratic principles, but the citizens could look for certain sign posts to see if those principles were being followed. How many ordinary citizens have progressed on the political rung to represent the people? It is the same old, same old leadership of rich lawyers, landowners and similar?
Government needs to protect its citizens from foreign powers. This does not mean that the nation actively engages in international affairs. It is never the police force of the world. It enacts laws that benefit the majority, but sunsets them to evaluate their fairness to the minority. When dealing in trade with the global community, all aspects of a product/sale must be evaluated. Since I also believe that our operating system of capitalism is a plus, the playing field of any trade must be put into perspective. It must be evaluated to our currency to which should return to gold, silver and other precious metals for backing strength. When our nation was on the gold standard, it was extremely foolish to allow convertibility. Nations stole our gold. Who wouldn't take gold for paper? This led to the destruction of our currency. Why did our so-called leaders allow manipulative, fiat paper which does not match gold on any level to be exchanged for our gold? Idiots!
Anyway, our individual companies must have the help of our government because global nations utilize state sponsored enterprise. This makes any trade unfair for our individual companies. By the way, capitalism has its sins and those are man's sins like greed, coercion, fraud, ego, amongst others. This is not the time and place to address them. The government should strive to make the country self-sufficient as best as it is able. Whomever is elected, they should not ban opposing party ideas because they come from political opposition. Our seniors would be destitute if it weren't for the concept of social security which is a socialist contribution. A liberal gave us our creed that all men are created equal or else we would have collapsed with race riots ages ago. Conservative thinking gave us a strong currency in the gold standard, but there are no real conservatives in government anymore. My mother's words of wisdom, "There are good and bad in all groups." It should be central to government leadership.
Our nation developed individually in the form of states, but federal government destroys states rights. This needs to be amended to allow each its own sphere of influence. The government should not seek to expand and always operate in economic balance of revenues to expenses. The government should do more for the school systems with all schools, no matter parochial or public, to receive funding because all of their students are citizens of the same state. The application of rules and regulations of the government should be citizens first with the hope to live and let live in developing our individual pursuit of happiness with peace and love throughout the land.
What would you do?
P.S. I did not address the jurisdiction or power of the judicial branch of government. The reason is that I have an answer, but it is to be revealed if I ever get my unpublished work, published.
Wednesday, April 4, 2018
Global and US Economic Cracks
There are many things happening behind the scenes in the world and signs of economic cracks are appearing like water leaks in a dam. Of course, and up front is all the talk of tariffs and or trade wars. However, little pieces of news are more unsettling than what if or what could be.
Japan
manufacturing is losing steam and Abe's recovery plan is causing many questions with few answers. In addition, confidence is falling and the projections on future outlook are depressing.
EU
The private sector is hitting slowest pace and revenues are falling with budgets in deficits. More tax options are being suggested like the recent one on US technology companies. German business confidence is falling again and elections loom in Germany.
US
The Federal Reserve recently raised rates, but the US bond market says fewer rate increases will be coming. Who is right? Does it matter? It matters to the global community because US rates are among the highest in the world while at the same time other nations are exploring and experimenting with negative rates. This is the quiet curse of fiat money. The consequences of printing money.
China
It began its new program to offer gold for oil payments. It is too early to know if this action will crack the "petro-dollar." I believe it is one part of a bigger plan to supersede the US dollar as the world reserve currency. This is very dangerous to the US economy. If the US loses its reserve status, our economy will crumble with inflation and then, stagflation like the late 70s. The other part of the plan is the development of the "Silk Road."
The world should realize by know that China is the world's largest economy and as a result, the Yuan should be the highest valued currency. If it were, the trade imbalances would begin to adjust. It isn't. Manipulation is allowing China to continue its ascension. China has over 100 million people working! They are building super speed trains to connect to all points on the Silk Road. They are already motivating governments to hop on the train. Thailand will use it to sell fruits to China. Turkey will open up a connection to Europe. These are economic dominoes and many other nations are working behind the scenes to trade with China. Russia is adding a direct pipeline with its oil for China. On Sunday night China announced retaliation tariffs on 128 US products. Not good. Can you read the tea leaves? Can you spell escalation?
Meanwhile, US companies are being shut out of markets while our own has many problems. We lost Toys 'R Us last week and 19 more are on the way out. The list includes:
Sears, Guitar Center, Fresh Market, Pet Smart, Claire's, 99 Cents Only, BKH, Payless, J. Crew, New Academy, Steak 'N Shake, David's Bridal, Neiman Marcus, SSH Holding, Everest, Bluestem Brands, Fall Beauty Brand, HT International Holdings, and Evergreen.
We are seeing the first signs of labor unrest. School teachers in W. Virginia went on strike. They won. Now, the contagion has spread with Oklahoma and Kentucky out on strike. Soon, other public employees will seek benefits and wage increases. I'm not saying whether their claims are justified or not. It just appears to be a repeat of the 70s, when strikes appeared all the time and inflation shot through the roof. Prediction: Gold will be precious once again.
Oh yeah, Tesla is recalling cars while they burn through $1 billion a year. Excuse me, $1 billion a MONTH! They will need to raise money. Forget to mention Tesla's self-driving car crashed and 123,000 Model S cars are being recalled.
Now, I don't want you to lose focus, but just imagine for a moment that Tesla was a Chinese company. They would receive billions with low rates and backed by the state. They would do whatever it took to see that this company survives and thrives. In essence, it would get protectionism. This is why America is losing because the game is rigged with state sponsored entities competing against our stand alone companies. Tariffs will get worse before it gets better.
Bottom line: Dear reader, the correction is here. It began with Bitcoin. If the market has all the fundamentals behind it like it does and we keep seeing market reversals, this is a classic sign of a BEAR MARKET.
Japan
manufacturing is losing steam and Abe's recovery plan is causing many questions with few answers. In addition, confidence is falling and the projections on future outlook are depressing.
EU
The private sector is hitting slowest pace and revenues are falling with budgets in deficits. More tax options are being suggested like the recent one on US technology companies. German business confidence is falling again and elections loom in Germany.
US
The Federal Reserve recently raised rates, but the US bond market says fewer rate increases will be coming. Who is right? Does it matter? It matters to the global community because US rates are among the highest in the world while at the same time other nations are exploring and experimenting with negative rates. This is the quiet curse of fiat money. The consequences of printing money.
China
It began its new program to offer gold for oil payments. It is too early to know if this action will crack the "petro-dollar." I believe it is one part of a bigger plan to supersede the US dollar as the world reserve currency. This is very dangerous to the US economy. If the US loses its reserve status, our economy will crumble with inflation and then, stagflation like the late 70s. The other part of the plan is the development of the "Silk Road."
The world should realize by know that China is the world's largest economy and as a result, the Yuan should be the highest valued currency. If it were, the trade imbalances would begin to adjust. It isn't. Manipulation is allowing China to continue its ascension. China has over 100 million people working! They are building super speed trains to connect to all points on the Silk Road. They are already motivating governments to hop on the train. Thailand will use it to sell fruits to China. Turkey will open up a connection to Europe. These are economic dominoes and many other nations are working behind the scenes to trade with China. Russia is adding a direct pipeline with its oil for China. On Sunday night China announced retaliation tariffs on 128 US products. Not good. Can you read the tea leaves? Can you spell escalation?
Meanwhile, US companies are being shut out of markets while our own has many problems. We lost Toys 'R Us last week and 19 more are on the way out. The list includes:
Sears, Guitar Center, Fresh Market, Pet Smart, Claire's, 99 Cents Only, BKH, Payless, J. Crew, New Academy, Steak 'N Shake, David's Bridal, Neiman Marcus, SSH Holding, Everest, Bluestem Brands, Fall Beauty Brand, HT International Holdings, and Evergreen.
We are seeing the first signs of labor unrest. School teachers in W. Virginia went on strike. They won. Now, the contagion has spread with Oklahoma and Kentucky out on strike. Soon, other public employees will seek benefits and wage increases. I'm not saying whether their claims are justified or not. It just appears to be a repeat of the 70s, when strikes appeared all the time and inflation shot through the roof. Prediction: Gold will be precious once again.
Oh yeah, Tesla is recalling cars while they burn through $1 billion a year. Excuse me, $1 billion a MONTH! They will need to raise money. Forget to mention Tesla's self-driving car crashed and 123,000 Model S cars are being recalled.
Now, I don't want you to lose focus, but just imagine for a moment that Tesla was a Chinese company. They would receive billions with low rates and backed by the state. They would do whatever it took to see that this company survives and thrives. In essence, it would get protectionism. This is why America is losing because the game is rigged with state sponsored entities competing against our stand alone companies. Tariffs will get worse before it gets better.
Bottom line: Dear reader, the correction is here. It began with Bitcoin. If the market has all the fundamentals behind it like it does and we keep seeing market reversals, this is a classic sign of a BEAR MARKET.
Wednesday, March 28, 2018
Economic Odds and Ends
Beware: The Ides of March
Ever since Trump enacted on his campaign pledge to protect American workers from the ravages of global trade where every nation takes advantage of the US by exploiting our economy for their own benefit, world stock markets and global trade partners have been up in arms. Why, I ask? Who is the tax on?
The moment after Trump signed to enact tariffs on steel and aluminum, the loophole surfaced. The exemption could take place after a summited negotiation in other words, no tariff to you. This is the perfect example of what is wrong with our democracy in our time. For example, you have a great idea. You offer a bill to Congress. Then, every member agrees with you...if you opt out to help my state. Then, lobbyist approach you with money to exclude so-and-so and what does America get? A watered-down bill done in a half-ass manner that does more harm than good. This is what Trump has done. I love him for trying, but doing things in a half-ass manner is no help. It gets worse.
First, he added that Canada and Mexico were exempt under NAFTA. A week later, Trump included the EU to the exempt list. Keep in mind, that the so-called tariffs will not go into effect until a 30-day period of transition. In the meantime, Japan and others seek to be included in the exempt category. So, I ask,
who is the tariff on?
Meanwhile, Trump signed the bill to keep the government funded. This cost taxpayers $1.3 trillion and it is only good for six months! In addition, the global vandals dumped excess amount of their crap on us to which our present account deficit is up 26% in the current year. Whatever deficits were projected, now they are on course to be 26% higher. I say, no exemptions for anyone!
Beat Goes On...
The Fed raised interest rates a whole quarter point, Whoopee! But, they still claim that their inflation target of 2% has not been reached. Oh, really? Consider this reality...
General Mills reported earnings. In their statement they said higher shipping costs and higher food costs effected profits.
In report after report from construction builders, statements repeat this message: We saw higher materials costs, faced higher wages and the price of land not to mention the cost of regulations.
Housing report said the cost of a new home is up another 10% from a year ago at $326,000. I know one thing. I can't afford one!
Midland, Texas is booming due to higher oil prices. Hotel bookings are up as well as hotel rates. They doubled from 2016. This is ground zero to dig for oil, especially shale.
Enter Weather
The northeast has had the worst snow season in 130 years. This will bust state and city budgets. However, the biggest economic effect will be felt by the airlines. There were over 10,000 flight cancellations up to now for the month of March. However, fixed costs still had to be paid. In addition, the airlines faced higher fuel costs as oil has rallied on the rumor that Trump may end the Iran nuclear deal. Our economy is doing well and that alone caused oil to rally. Citizens everywhere face higher gasoline costs, heating oil costs and Trump has indicated that he wants to increase the federal gas tax. Not looking good. Hey, new Fed guy, Powell, did you read this?
Now, I stated above that the EU were exempt from the new tariff by Trump, but the EU in seeking revenues like all governments, has enacted a tax on technology to which they claim has nothing to do with a tariff retaliation. We should say and do similar to EU companies. A billion here, a billion there and maybe we could start to cut our deficits?
Speaking of technology, Facebook screwed up. Their selling of personal data for their personal gain has hit the fan. Regulations will come along with taxes on technology unless the technology lobbyists offer more money to re-elect our so-called leaders.
Tit-for-Tat
Of course, this will happen. Trump should realize that the US is the trump card. No nation could afford to lose their market niche in our economy. He should stay tough. Show some cojones! China said that they will target $3 billion in new tariffs to selected targets. Yeah, screw you, you phonies! In reality, China is the poster child for protectionism. Their companies are state sponsored which gives them an endless piggybank, favorable regulations and the most outrageous environment for foreign companies operating in China. They must be called Chinese companies. So, Intel in China is a Chinese company. The same for Apple, Mercedes, whomever. By the way, this is a distortion of world GDP. Foreign entities on sales and production is counted in China as Chinese, while at the same time, the same results are counted back in their nation of origin. Anyway, China forces every company to disclose all company intellectual knowledge and then, they steal it. SCREW THEM! In their retaliation, they selected political swing states and the products that these states export like Ohio and Wisconsin. They also indicated that they might target airlines, autos, soybeans and pork. They even hinted that they may buy less US bonds. I say, BRING IT ON!
Enter the Shills...
It didn't take long for the shills in our society to get their say on the matter. That is almost a sick joke. We know where they stand. They just try to camouflaged their position. They are saying that we should not attempt to protect old industries like steel and coal, but new alternative industries like solar and wind. If you stop and just read their message, it sounds legit. It isn't. It is misdirection. I say that we protect everything and after the dust settles, see what is best for our future and exempt the rest. Trump, stay the course! No exemptions! Just look around! Our retail industry is dying like Toys 'R Us. They are closing all their stores and 33,000 people will be looking for work. I repeat, No Exemptions!
Ever since Trump enacted on his campaign pledge to protect American workers from the ravages of global trade where every nation takes advantage of the US by exploiting our economy for their own benefit, world stock markets and global trade partners have been up in arms. Why, I ask? Who is the tax on?
The moment after Trump signed to enact tariffs on steel and aluminum, the loophole surfaced. The exemption could take place after a summited negotiation in other words, no tariff to you. This is the perfect example of what is wrong with our democracy in our time. For example, you have a great idea. You offer a bill to Congress. Then, every member agrees with you...if you opt out to help my state. Then, lobbyist approach you with money to exclude so-and-so and what does America get? A watered-down bill done in a half-ass manner that does more harm than good. This is what Trump has done. I love him for trying, but doing things in a half-ass manner is no help. It gets worse.
First, he added that Canada and Mexico were exempt under NAFTA. A week later, Trump included the EU to the exempt list. Keep in mind, that the so-called tariffs will not go into effect until a 30-day period of transition. In the meantime, Japan and others seek to be included in the exempt category. So, I ask,
who is the tariff on?
Meanwhile, Trump signed the bill to keep the government funded. This cost taxpayers $1.3 trillion and it is only good for six months! In addition, the global vandals dumped excess amount of their crap on us to which our present account deficit is up 26% in the current year. Whatever deficits were projected, now they are on course to be 26% higher. I say, no exemptions for anyone!
Beat Goes On...
The Fed raised interest rates a whole quarter point, Whoopee! But, they still claim that their inflation target of 2% has not been reached. Oh, really? Consider this reality...
General Mills reported earnings. In their statement they said higher shipping costs and higher food costs effected profits.
In report after report from construction builders, statements repeat this message: We saw higher materials costs, faced higher wages and the price of land not to mention the cost of regulations.
Housing report said the cost of a new home is up another 10% from a year ago at $326,000. I know one thing. I can't afford one!
Midland, Texas is booming due to higher oil prices. Hotel bookings are up as well as hotel rates. They doubled from 2016. This is ground zero to dig for oil, especially shale.
Enter Weather
The northeast has had the worst snow season in 130 years. This will bust state and city budgets. However, the biggest economic effect will be felt by the airlines. There were over 10,000 flight cancellations up to now for the month of March. However, fixed costs still had to be paid. In addition, the airlines faced higher fuel costs as oil has rallied on the rumor that Trump may end the Iran nuclear deal. Our economy is doing well and that alone caused oil to rally. Citizens everywhere face higher gasoline costs, heating oil costs and Trump has indicated that he wants to increase the federal gas tax. Not looking good. Hey, new Fed guy, Powell, did you read this?
Now, I stated above that the EU were exempt from the new tariff by Trump, but the EU in seeking revenues like all governments, has enacted a tax on technology to which they claim has nothing to do with a tariff retaliation. We should say and do similar to EU companies. A billion here, a billion there and maybe we could start to cut our deficits?
Speaking of technology, Facebook screwed up. Their selling of personal data for their personal gain has hit the fan. Regulations will come along with taxes on technology unless the technology lobbyists offer more money to re-elect our so-called leaders.
Tit-for-Tat
Of course, this will happen. Trump should realize that the US is the trump card. No nation could afford to lose their market niche in our economy. He should stay tough. Show some cojones! China said that they will target $3 billion in new tariffs to selected targets. Yeah, screw you, you phonies! In reality, China is the poster child for protectionism. Their companies are state sponsored which gives them an endless piggybank, favorable regulations and the most outrageous environment for foreign companies operating in China. They must be called Chinese companies. So, Intel in China is a Chinese company. The same for Apple, Mercedes, whomever. By the way, this is a distortion of world GDP. Foreign entities on sales and production is counted in China as Chinese, while at the same time, the same results are counted back in their nation of origin. Anyway, China forces every company to disclose all company intellectual knowledge and then, they steal it. SCREW THEM! In their retaliation, they selected political swing states and the products that these states export like Ohio and Wisconsin. They also indicated that they might target airlines, autos, soybeans and pork. They even hinted that they may buy less US bonds. I say, BRING IT ON!
Enter the Shills...
It didn't take long for the shills in our society to get their say on the matter. That is almost a sick joke. We know where they stand. They just try to camouflaged their position. They are saying that we should not attempt to protect old industries like steel and coal, but new alternative industries like solar and wind. If you stop and just read their message, it sounds legit. It isn't. It is misdirection. I say that we protect everything and after the dust settles, see what is best for our future and exempt the rest. Trump, stay the course! No exemptions! Just look around! Our retail industry is dying like Toys 'R Us. They are closing all their stores and 33,000 people will be looking for work. I repeat, No Exemptions!
Wednesday, March 21, 2018
Enter Kudlow...for Now
President Trump fired Cohn and hired Kudlow as the top economic adviser. His administration is taking on a scary resemblance to Trump's reality TV show, The Apprentice. When that TV show first aired, it had a similar tone to the then, New York Yankee owner, George Steinbrenner. George was noted for his rash decisions on his employees, "You were hired to be fired." As president, Trump is like his reality program with the "Donald's" signature line, "You're fired!" This is his tone as president.
Enter Kudlow
President Trump says Kudlow and he are a perfect blend. This will be good for America. This is pure BS! Why, you ask? Because Kudlow has been around a long time with a book, media exposure, worked on Wall St. and past administrations - all Republican.
Before I jump on this too-bit shill, let me refresh you with his past proclamation's and predictions.
As stated above, he has worked with Laffer when Laffer was the top dog for the Reagan presidency. His economic wisdom was caught under this slogan, "trickle down effect." This meant tax cuts for the rich even though it ballooned our national deficit. The act would cause money to circulate all the way down to ordinary citizens. The only thing right about it was workers got (trickle) crumbs. This is the era where our factories closed and jobs were outsourced. I say no more!
Kudlow also worked at Bear Stearns. The company went bankrupt! I say no more!
Kudlow also worked for the Fed. He loves the easy money, although he says he is for a strong dollar. Just recently, he urged the new Fed chairman to go very slow and even pause with rate hikes. Now, rate hikes would strengthen the dollar, but stopping those hikes or even pauses, let's the market digest our horrible deficits. Not good. As this example shows, he denies the truth of easy, fiat money. He speaks from both sides of his mouth. Too bad our native Americans don't get media exposure because their expression nails it, "Speaks with a forked tongue."
He counseled the Bush administration. He advocated in 2002 to attack Iraq and take out Saddam Hussein because they had weapons of mass destruction. They posed an immediate danger to us and the world. This was pure BS, but what he was doing was shill work. He toyed with American thinking and public opinion. He laced the ground work for Bush to begin the Iraqi War in March 2003. It gets worse.
Kudlow Prediction
When the war started, Kudlow had his voice reach our homes through his job at CNBC. He had a feature called, "Kudlow Report." He predicted that the war would end quickly. Wrong!
He said that the Iraqi citizens would be glad that Saddam was gone; they would gladly use their oil to repay us for the cost of the war. Wrong! Not only wrong, but pure BS!
The man is a shill for war mongers, defense contractors and a real danger for us and the world. I'm sorry. This type of person, an entrenched status quo, gets me sick and thus, sometimes a combative ego arises to put him in his place. Continuing...
From CNBC in 2007, he declared that there was no danger of a recession. Even as late as July 2008, he repeated his claim. Totally wrong!
He supported the Bush tax cuts even as they pushed our national deficit into the trillion dollar category. Even as housing recovered under president Obama, he said housing would collapse again.
Wrong!
He supported the Trump candidacy, but cautioned the idea of tariffs. He said that they would be bad for trade. In addition, during this pre-election cycle, he claimed that Fed chair-person, Janet Yellen, needed to act on inflation. Inflation would damage the economy. He was wrong, although correct if food, energy and housing were including in the inflation mix to determine its level. By the way, he doesn't include those necessities. The only economic prediction that he had right was claim that if Trump won, the markets would rise. Correct!
Conclusion:
The man is a globalist. If Trump is for America, this is pure conflict. He claims to be on board with Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum. However, he is against tariffs in general. This means he is for globalization which is destroying our workers and our standard of living. By the way, our national deficit topped $21 trillion to which I predicted would happen this year. Do you remember Bush declaring that we would have a surplus going forward? And by now? Kudlow endorsed his tax cuts when Bush was president and he agreed to this BS prediction. Keep in mind that this also means he is against unions and worker's protections. He is for the status quo, the greedy and not for what is best for America. He is destined to be FIRED!
And the beat goes on...
Enter Kudlow
President Trump says Kudlow and he are a perfect blend. This will be good for America. This is pure BS! Why, you ask? Because Kudlow has been around a long time with a book, media exposure, worked on Wall St. and past administrations - all Republican.
Before I jump on this too-bit shill, let me refresh you with his past proclamation's and predictions.
As stated above, he has worked with Laffer when Laffer was the top dog for the Reagan presidency. His economic wisdom was caught under this slogan, "trickle down effect." This meant tax cuts for the rich even though it ballooned our national deficit. The act would cause money to circulate all the way down to ordinary citizens. The only thing right about it was workers got (trickle) crumbs. This is the era where our factories closed and jobs were outsourced. I say no more!
Kudlow also worked at Bear Stearns. The company went bankrupt! I say no more!
Kudlow also worked for the Fed. He loves the easy money, although he says he is for a strong dollar. Just recently, he urged the new Fed chairman to go very slow and even pause with rate hikes. Now, rate hikes would strengthen the dollar, but stopping those hikes or even pauses, let's the market digest our horrible deficits. Not good. As this example shows, he denies the truth of easy, fiat money. He speaks from both sides of his mouth. Too bad our native Americans don't get media exposure because their expression nails it, "Speaks with a forked tongue."
He counseled the Bush administration. He advocated in 2002 to attack Iraq and take out Saddam Hussein because they had weapons of mass destruction. They posed an immediate danger to us and the world. This was pure BS, but what he was doing was shill work. He toyed with American thinking and public opinion. He laced the ground work for Bush to begin the Iraqi War in March 2003. It gets worse.
Kudlow Prediction
When the war started, Kudlow had his voice reach our homes through his job at CNBC. He had a feature called, "Kudlow Report." He predicted that the war would end quickly. Wrong!
He said that the Iraqi citizens would be glad that Saddam was gone; they would gladly use their oil to repay us for the cost of the war. Wrong! Not only wrong, but pure BS!
The man is a shill for war mongers, defense contractors and a real danger for us and the world. I'm sorry. This type of person, an entrenched status quo, gets me sick and thus, sometimes a combative ego arises to put him in his place. Continuing...
From CNBC in 2007, he declared that there was no danger of a recession. Even as late as July 2008, he repeated his claim. Totally wrong!
He supported the Bush tax cuts even as they pushed our national deficit into the trillion dollar category. Even as housing recovered under president Obama, he said housing would collapse again.
Wrong!
He supported the Trump candidacy, but cautioned the idea of tariffs. He said that they would be bad for trade. In addition, during this pre-election cycle, he claimed that Fed chair-person, Janet Yellen, needed to act on inflation. Inflation would damage the economy. He was wrong, although correct if food, energy and housing were including in the inflation mix to determine its level. By the way, he doesn't include those necessities. The only economic prediction that he had right was claim that if Trump won, the markets would rise. Correct!
Conclusion:
The man is a globalist. If Trump is for America, this is pure conflict. He claims to be on board with Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum. However, he is against tariffs in general. This means he is for globalization which is destroying our workers and our standard of living. By the way, our national deficit topped $21 trillion to which I predicted would happen this year. Do you remember Bush declaring that we would have a surplus going forward? And by now? Kudlow endorsed his tax cuts when Bush was president and he agreed to this BS prediction. Keep in mind that this also means he is against unions and worker's protections. He is for the status quo, the greedy and not for what is best for America. He is destined to be FIRED!
And the beat goes on...
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