Odds and Ends: February 2021

The two biggest things that happen in the 2cd month is the Super Bowl and the Chinese New Year. This year, Tom Brady found a team to give him another ring. Tom's wins are so like the market. They defy the obvious. Let me recap. Tom came onto the scene when the New England starter got hurt. In the snow filled playoff game against Oakland, he was stacked and striped of the ball. Turnover! No! Wait! The refs made a change to the football rules: the Tuck Rule. No fumble. New England wins, not because of Brady. It was due to a clutch, unbelievable game winning field goal. The US stock market functions the same way. The news says 798,000 workers filed for unemployment. The market rises. Why, you ask? Because the shills expected over 800K. A firm reports less revenue and they will layoff workers. The stock rises due to costs cuts. The shills scream, "Things are better!" Every year the market gives new bullshit on why it rises. This correlates to Tom's Super Bowl wins. Every win is questionable under common sense. Why did a running team like Seattle try to pass from the two yard line after making a first down? And they had a running QB for a boot leg play? Why did the Falcons try to pass after Julio made an incredible catch for a first down and all Atlanta had to do was run out the clock? And of course the refs always come to Tom's aid. He will get a pass interference call or an offside call to keep the ball. The market has its questionable refs too. The Fed is the ref. It provides money by offering negative rates. By that I mean interest rates that are below the rigged, phony inflation line. If interest rates were just 3.5%, the market would implode. What does that say about the market? What does that say about the Fed's engineering of the economy? This all leads to the question. Is the NFL fixed? Is the market rigged? As for the Chinese New Year, the year of the OX is suppose to be great for the white metal (read silver). We'll see, says the blind man.  

Did You Know...

that the Geneva Convention still decides who runs Libya - 10-years after Gadhafi was deposed?

Get Your Ticket!

Space X plans to conduct its first private flight this October. On board will be a 29-year old American, Hayley Arceneaux. She has a prosthetic body part. The mission could show that ordinary people could fly to space. Of course, you want to get in better shape. They plan on buying this...

Want to Exercise?

Don't count on getting a Peloton to do it. The firm cannot get parts due to supply chain problems. Maybe this supply chain problem is the reason why the government cannot get the vaccine into distribution points and into arms? Why, you ask? Because the pandemic is a global problem. Governments are not telling the truth so the public won't panic. Everyone is buying time.  

Clue to Market's Rally

We all realize that the friendly Fed and government stimulus have added to push the market higher in spite of all the negative news. Another point is the effect of all the buybacks. There is less stock to purchase. However, the overlooked reason is that there is less firms in the market. For the  first time in history there is more money chasing less product. Nevertheless, we still feel it will end badly.

One reason is American firms are not spending on product development, basic research. Case in point: Have you noticed all the advertisement on TV by AT&T or Verizon? They push the 5G network system, but neither of the two biggest American firms developed the system. They have to purchase it from a Chinese, Swedish or Norway company. Then, there is this other observation from TV adds, medical. One can only conclude with the huge volume of adds that Americans are very, very sick nation. 

Beat a Dead Horse

This is exactly what the Democrats are doing. Trump has been acquitted again, but these phony, hypocrites, keep hitting this dead issue. They wasted four years screaming the word, "Impeachment!" at Trump. Ironically, the one thing that he did that was impeachable failed. Why, you ask? Because by yelling wolf all the time, the one time that it was true, it got ignored. Meanwhile, the nation is four more years behind in manufacturing, four more years behind in data security (read hacks happen everyday) and now, we have the pandemic which is crushing our low-paying service economy. But, the mean spirited, despicable Democrats want to continue to go after Trump. Now, they want a special commission like the 911 Commission to look into the riot at the Capital. Nothing like causing division between the two political parties, and then, saying, we want unity. We want help for Americans. We want a stimulus bill!

ROVER ON MARS!

NASA pulled off an incredible, engineering feat. To travel over 128 million miles or over 206 million km (for our European friends) and land an ATV to explore the surface is legendary. NASA says, "It will explore a crater to see if it contained water or other form of life as we know it." I say the whole thing is a waste of time, talent, resources and money. The crater was probably formed by a crashing asteroid or a piece off of a comet. As the ice melted, a lake was formed before it evaporated - end of story. 

What we really need...

Is to put those smart, talented people to develop a true internet protection. If anyone attempts to send you something over the internet and it contains some type of malware or other hacking virus, your computer security will immediately read the code and notify you to delete this and to block this IP address, app or other inducement in any future dealings. That would make life better for everyone and to me that is promoting the general welfare. We won't find that on the Red Planet. The name invokes nothing positive - God of War. NASA has its roots in ego that began during the Cold War. We don't have to prove anything. The Russians and Chinese would be fools to think that if our backs is to the wall that we could not create an answer to their madness. The Yankees don't have to win every year, but we all know that they are the best. Science and space have a place, but more importantly is the here and now. We don't have to search for water, We have it here, but we need to keep it clean as well as our air, safe food and roads and most of all, peace. Take care, peace.

E-Vehicle Hit

 It is no secret that the gas combustion engine is facing its twilight time. The new kid on the block, the electric powered vehicle is approaching dawn. At present, it comes in two forms: all-electric and plug-in hybrid. The ratio of sales between the two is 60% for electric and 40% for the hybrid.  In numbers, the electric combo sold 720,000 worldwide and the reliable gas cars sold 17 million. The gas powered car is still king of the road, but there is revolution in the kingdom. Nevertheless, experts say that by 2040, it will be an even split. 

California is pushing the timeline. They have set 2035 as the last year for new gas-powered sales in their state. Coincidentally, GM has stated that it will end production of gas-powered vehicles in the same year. Ford says it will be all-electric in Europe by 2030.

With that type of dramatic change, all car manufacturers are preparing. The average price for a new electric style car is over $32,000. In this category, of the three cheapest vehicles in this segment of the market, Ford and Volkswagen hold two spots: Volkswagen with their e-Golf and Ford with their C-Max. They want to expand their presence, but their planning took a hit last week. The problem centers on the fuel, so to speak. Electric need batteries. The best performing batteries are lithium. The engineering problem is to make the batteries safer, increase the range capability and reduce the weight for better mileage, versatility and comfort. 

Tesla is the market leader. Tesla is now also a miner. They have turned their attention to the battery. Tesla recently purchased 10,000 acres containing lithium in Nevada to develop their own lithium process and to ensure supply. This is central to any development into the electric segment of the market. A court decision last week has many ramifications associated with it. 

Intellectual theft...LG Chem v. SK Innovation

is a growing problem. Asian nations have a cultural problem. They do not honor patents. Apparently, SK hired 70 employees from LG. They took with them trade secrets in battery knowledge. This type of theft happens every day in Silicon Valley. One firm poaches another for talent and product knowledge to leap-frog the competition. Whatever happened to the old technique of bribery? Only kidding! This is a serious problem in global commerce. China leads the most wanted list. China would be great in the WWE, where lying, cheating and no rules can lead to success. In life, this is despicable. Someone spends years to develop a system or a product, only to have it copied overnight and sold for less under state sponsored subsidies. This is another reason why I would end all trade with China. Anyway, the ruling by the U.S. International Trade Commission went against SK. This is a serious blow to Volkswagen who has a contract with SK to make a special battery for their ID.4. It is does damage to Ford who also has a deal to make a special battery for their F-150. 

Biden's Green Policy Plan

will be tested by this verdict. Like I stated, this case has many ramifications. Under the surface today, there is another problem. A court's verdict is no longer law of the land. The problem is lawyers. It is not whether something is right or wrong, but who wins. SK will ask Biden to veto the ruling under executive order. The court's decision has put a ban on SK for ten years. SK says that they will build this special battery plant in Georgia. If Biden does not veto the decision, American workers will lose this new source of high paying jobs. On the flip-side, LG has a battery plant in Michigan for GM. Biden's decision is basically picking who wins and who loses. Fortunately, this conflict was between two S. Korean firms. Imagine if one of them was Chinese? China will be watching this case. If I was Biden, I would rule against SK. Do not reward cheaters! You send a signal to China to start behaving in an honorable fashion. By the way, the judge on this court showed real understanding of life. He gave Volkswagen and Ford a transition time to make a new deal or find another supplier. In any event, Volkswagen and Ford took a hit to their future plans for electric vehicles. Peace. 

If Your Premise is Wrong?

 - I no longer listen to what people say, I just watch what they do.

- Winston Churchill

Here, at Evolution, we are followers to those words of wisdom. President Biden has spent the past few weeks undoing by Executive Order what President Trump signed during his administration. Now, the real work must begin. His own party is pushing him to sign another executive order. It is to forgive $50,000 in student debt. We are vehemently opposed to this. If Biden forgives a debt amount, I want that same amount and every citizen who didn't take a school loan, as a check. Guess what? I won't be paying it back! 

Continuing, can Biden get any legislation passed to which is the real laws of the land? Already, his stimulus package has been pushed back to the end of February. If I was you, I would not count that check until it is in your hand and you knew how much you were getting.

What did you expect?

Biden chose for his cabinet, old cronies and old bureaucrats. How can you get new thinking under this old premise? Last week, Biden announced his foreign policy. It is a return to Obama's. This means military intervention, an escalation with tension with Russia and China can do anything it likes as long as it buys US Treasuries and farm products.

Talking on both sides of the mouth...

Biden said that the US will no longer support Saudi Arabia's conflict in Yemen. Then, he said the US supports Saudi Arabian security. Biden said that the US will continue talks with the Taliban in Afghanistan to end the longest war. Dear Reader, it is not the longest war, but a perpetual war. When someone asked if Biden worried about all the deficits? He was quick to point out that Trump incurred $8 trillion to our deficits. No one in his cabinet mentioned that the trade gap widened to its largest percentage amount, 18% on record deficits of $679 billion for the month of December. This is becoming the norm. Record deficits every month and year.

You, do the math!

Private payrolls added over 6,000 jobs last month and another 779,000 sought unemployment just last week. Then, the government says that unemployment dropped to 6.3%. Go figure?! Members of Biden's cabinet pointed out that the workforce of 142 million saw increased hourly work. 

40 is now 35...

That weekly hourly rise was 35 hours and not 40. By the way, this is the most hours on a weekly scale since 2000. Thirty-five hours is the new normal for full-time employment. With our economy under a serviced orientated environment ( read low wages), how sad is that? 

Market Rallies

The S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 hit new record highs. This says the market could rally even higher. One reason that we, at Evolution overlooked was the addition of Millennials to the market place. This is evident in the high recent volumes within the daily and weekly share count. There are more trades now than in the previous decade. You have to go back to the 1990s for similar share count. This new aspect changes the timeline of our prediction for a market correction. With that said, we stand by our thinking that the fundamental economy is weak. Take for example, a report by CBS on housing. They said that 71% of Americans cannot afford to purchase a home. The US medium price is $286,381. This speaks volumes. It shows a lack of social mobility. It shows poor wages. We can add other reports like how many renters are behind on their rent. The only thing keeping them under a roof is an Executive Order. Poverty is the fastest growing segment in our society. Biden is playing politics. He should be talking how he plans, if he has one, to help Americans rise from low-wages to middle class. He should be talking how he plans to tax the wealthy, the internet and help states, whether blue or red to overcome this virus and start growth again. Nevertheless, the market goes higher and the Beat Goes On...  

Shorts and the Market

 In a nutshell, you buy when you think a firm's stock will rise and you sell when you feel that it will decline. This is the battle between the Bulls and Bears. This is the market. The history of price action within the market shows a bias toward buying. Even with the facts pointing to this conclusion, the pro-buyers has pushed for regulations against short sellers. You could only short a stock after an uptick. This is rigging! C'mon! In a down market, sellers would look to the most overpriced, overvalued company. However, the firm was probably declining with the market. You could not place your order because there was never an uptick. Anyway, that rule is no longer in place. Nevertheless, there are still limitations. If you decide to place a short sale with your broker, he must have shares to short. The only way that is available to the brokerage is margin shares. You may want to short a company, but you cannot purchase any shares. Story of life!

New Problem

If someone can build something, someone can find a weak link. In the past, the market has experienced heavy buying and selling. Generally, the market rises in steps like a staircase. It declines like an elevator. This has caused the market to put in place "circuit breakers." This is especially present in commodity trading. The market sets limits in daily action in the pits. In the exchanges, a pause may be put in place. This should have happened in the past two weeks. It is similar to what happened in the Capitol on January 6th. The Capitol Police knew of the dangers, but they did not take action. There inaction led to the results. The SEC did not take action. Big hedge funds and brokerage firms took heavy losses due to not utilizing the circuit breakers. The extreme number of orders overloaded the trading platforms. Margin calls were not able to be put in place due to settlement times. By the time the order was settled, the stock reversed its position. Now, we will hear a lot of whining. The problem is passing out the cheese. Biden won't help because he has his focus on the stimulus bill. This could be left to the bureaucrats. This means, rigging!

Economic Evangelist

wrote that he sees structural problems in our economy. This can only be fixed with quality jobs. If Biden gets his $15 minimum raise request granted, the relief will only be temporary. The market could resume its uptrend, but inflation will kill the wage gains. Quality jobs with a living wage is the only true answer for our deficit filled economy. So far, our Evangelist has been spot on! We see further declines in the market. At present, the commodities are indicating higher prices are coming. This is a diversion. However, not everything goes up in an up market and visa-versa. Keep an eye on Mosaic (MOS), X (US STEEL), and Dr. Copper. The market has a tendency to rotate into sectors on the way up and down. Chips have led this market up and they may lead it down. The market generally pauses after volatility like in the past month. It will digest and consolidate. The real conviction will be the action in King Dollar. We see it falling. If you want to live dangerously and you want to hop on the bandwagon of short sellers, this is the top ten.

*Ligand Pharmaceuticals 62%, Bed, Bath and Beyond 61%, Fubo TV 58%, Macerich 52%, AMC 52%, Pubmatic 51%, Tanger Factory Outlet 50%, Clovis 40%, Esperion 39%, and I Robot 37%.  

So, what is the "Short Squeeze?"

You think a stock is overvalued? You believe it should decline. You find that many investors agree with you as short interest in the shares is high. You place your position. Suddenly, high volume comes into the stock pushing it higher. Every uptick is money down the drain. You buy to cover, which in fact, pushes the stock higher. Other investors feel the pain and heat. They buy to cover and the stock rises again. The cycle will end, but one cannot remain solvent or convinced to ride out the story.  You have become a victim of the short squeeze. 

The most heavily shorted stock by dollar value is Tesla. 

Falling off a cliff...

So far, total losses by short sellers after one month in our new year is $71 billion. They had some wins, valued at $16 billion. The bottom line is $54 billion in the negative side of the ledger according to Ortex. The Russell 3000 has 68 stocks with 25% shorts according to Fact Set. The ten largest shorts are:

*GameStop, AMC, Bed, Bath and Beyond, National Beverage Co, I Robot, Pet Med Express, Macy's, Beyond Meat, Plug Power, Door Dash Inc, and Moderna. We said last week and we will repeat it here, this is a dangerous market! We still believe that after tomorrow and the "window dressing" period ends, the correction begins.

Odds and Ends: January 2021

- "Government is not the solution. Government is the problem." 

- Ronald Reagan 

- "Doing the same thing over and over again and seeking a new outcome is insanity."

- Albert Einstein 

This is where we are in 2021. President Biden believes government and its money, resources and power will solve any crisis, especially economic. The only thing that this thinking has provided is increasing debt, a lower standard of living and a devalued currency. This president is not alone. Every president after FDR has turned to this playbook when the economy turned south. There are two exceptions. President Eisenhower sought to balance the government. His term had a short recession, but the economy recovered on its own. We paid down our debt and the dollar had strong purchasing power. President Kennedy had stable prices in his abbreviated time. He, too, also had a balanced budget in one of his three years. His tax cut plan, enacted by Johnson took the economy to prosperity. One could argue about many other factors during every administration from climate to civil rights, but we are addressing the economy in this part of our work.

Stock Market says...

that the Biden administration is trying to be all things to all things. He won't make any waves. His cabinet reflects this: old cronies and lifelong bureaucrats. There will not be a "breakup" of big technology. Google is leading the charge higher and it is taking the market with it. The market is also saying that China will be our trading partner despite not fulfilling its agreed terms with the deal it signed with President Trump. China will renegotiate. Biden will claim a new, better deal. What he will get is the same old same old policy from China. Albert "E" should have dipped his toe in politics because his comment is "right on!" Of course, I am using it as a reflection to bureaucratic answers for the economy. Big Pharma will ride the virus to record earnings. Big Oil has hit a roadblock, but when prices rise, the restrictions will fade. Small business and large businesses are getting "free" money. Relief checks are coming. Evictions and foreclosures are on pause. No one looks ahead to when this ends or the money is spent? Alternative energy should benefit, but our Congress is a group of puppets. They will tow the party line and both parties are bought and paid for. They are in some unseen, rich assholes pocket. This is why real change is slow. It is not gridlock, but a democracy that does the bidding of the super rich and not the people. Like we said in our last piece, a stimulus economy is not an economic economy. 

What we see...

a rude awakening! Our Economic Evangelist wrote that the continual unemployment will soon factor into the markets equation. He said that the holiday hires would be dropped by the end of January. Here are the numbers so far: December 31st. = 787,000 claims; January 6th. = 803,000; January 14th. = 965,000; January 21st. = 900,000 claims. Total = 3,455.000. This is reality! When you combine the labor picture with the pandemic, it gets ugly, fast. Even if we could maintain one million vaccinations per day, it will take a year to cover the nation. Keep in mind that we have not reached this average and now, we have new strains from mutations to worry about along with bottlenecks in production and distribution. Then, there is this. Consider the stock. GameStop (GME)? It was $5 back in September. Rumors of bankruptcy circulated. It closed last Friday at $65.01. It was up 51% for the day. It has 141% shorts. NOTE: On Monday, it rocketed again to $159. Then, BOOM! fell to $78. On Tuesday, it flew up to $147. This is a dangerous market. 

Continuing, does Tesla (TSLA) make any money? How about Shopify (SHOP)? How about Bitcoin? Enough said!

Last Agreement...with Russia?

Time is up. The nuclear pact to curtail nuclear proliferation. Biden, in seeking to please all, will try to extend the pact. This is a good thing, but what about North Korea, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and Iran?

Flying Taxi?

It could be coming and soon. A new German startup, Lilium is developing an all-electric transport. It already has two European hubs and Orlando, Florida in the US. They will have competition from Volocopter. This firm is seeking to build an all-electric taxi. Have a good week. Peace. 

Stimulus Economy

-"C'mon, kid! Give me a break? I'm giving you the first one free!"

No, this is not some second rate crime show dialogue. Because within it, in plain sight, is a truth. One of today's problems, is deeper discussion. One could conclude on face value that there is no free lunch. Can't argue with that conclusion. Dig deeper. What is the offer? If it is marijuana, only a very small percentage of recipients will be negatively effected. This opens another argument - gateway to drugs. This is absolutely true. The odds are that almost anyone consuming other classifications of drugs, will be effected negatively. Dear Reader, this is not Evolution preaching. We used the above as a metaphor. It is only in relationship to the thinking of the new Biden administration. Here at Evolution, we see it as the same old same old.

If I asked you, what is the fastest growing sector in America? What would you say?

Rising Sector

POVERTY! There are 39.5 million Americans that live below the poverty level. Breaking down that number finds that there are over 12 million kids. This bodes poorly for the future US economy and innovation. Teachers feel the pain of the situation. However, in their empathy, they offer ideas that center around failure. They tell their students that if you feel that you can't make it, seek help. The helpline is government assistance. This is not teaching, but developing dependency. I'm all for the free lunch program and after school activities, but consider where this has gone. Kids learn to game the system for free wireless, free phones, free Obamacare, free food assistance, free rental assistance, utility assistance, even homeowner relief. The trails ends for now at government contracting. They don't learn how these helplines are paid for. They don't learn self-reliance. The founding fathers could not relate to today's government and what is happening in our schools.

How did this begin?

This is the central question. It happened piece-meal. The cold war that had fighting was in Korea. The close proximity of Japan resulted in Japan receiving an abundance of aid. This recharged their economy. Japan exported toys to the US. Then, they took advantage of the foolish, greedy idea of US car executives - planned obsolescence. US manufacturers thought that by planning the breakdown of parts, we could sell more, maybe even more cars? The Marshall Plan for Europe acted the same way. Once, the European economies returned, they sought to expand their market. They did. They dumped steel, and boatloads of their stuff on our shore. This began US deficits. Then, US producers who were always fighting unions, found a new technique to combat workers. Move the plant! Northern factories went south to non-unions states. Blacks were the first group in society to feel the pain. It would expand to all. Americans, with their resiliency and self-reliance developed the service economy. The pay was poor, but it paid the bills. Maybe something better will emerge. It didn't. Producers got Congress to outsource their business without ramifications like tariffs. This is what is killing the US economy, our standard of living and our future. Government responded in a piece-meal fashion. The band-aid was stimulus. Stimulus is medicine to get by. It has a time limit. When the cash is spent, it is expired! The root cause of our economic problems lies in the fact that Congress has not protected the general welfare. Any import should be taxed by tariffs. Any US imports should be taxed too. The tax should be high enough to protect a similar US producing concern. All foreign nations use protectionism, especially with state sponsored entities. This is where it began. This is what we need to address. Government assistance is not an economic economy!

2 Other Fears...

Like I stated above and we have seen in the past, stimulus is a band-aid. The fear that I now feel is the "give me and I want" people will use the present mood to push their small minded ideas. The first, is cancelling student loan debt. The figure is past one trillion. The proponents argue that the economy is being held back from growing because the ex-students have too much debt to purchase a car or a home. They are living at home and not starting families of their own. This is a half truth. Why? Let's look at  education loans. Students used this money for more than tuition. It was room and board. Many bought a car with the money. It became there life-style. I resent giving them an out from their debt. The choice like many before them was to delay self-gratification. Don't take free money. Get a job! If you have no other options, enter the military and utilize the GI Bill. Plan ahead! Take responsibility for your actions. I'm against anyone who is for cancelling student debt.

The other fear is related to the first. One could argue that the depreciating value of our currency and the decline in our standard of living could be traced to the Federal Reserve. Education cost many times more today than when I went to college. Inflation is the culprit. By the way, education has its own inflation. It is not just tuition, room and board. It is in degrees. At one time a college diploma could get you a leg up for a job. Then, the stakes were upped to a "Master Degree." Now, it is a PH-D. Anyway, the Federal Reserve is looking to expand their power. In doing so, they will destroy our democracy. Thomas Jefferson would lead the charge against these tyrannical, greedy idiots. They will seek to end cash as in a "cashless society." Idiots in Sweden are already changing their society to one where no one will accept cash for payment. This ends financial freedom. Future stimulus will be a credit card. The Fed does not want you to use cash. This is their first step and they already have a grab on our society. Use your smartphone at the checkout. Don't see money. Don't budget money. Don't understand the value of money. Don't use money! I say, "Give me Liberty or give me death!" End the Fed!

GOLD: It's Next Direction

The election is over except for the crying. When Trump won in 2016, the Democrats cried for four years. They did nothing for America. They are a disgrace to JFKs, Profiles In Courage.

Now, we face four years of Republicans crying. They never read JFKs work. They only read profit and loss statements. The only truth about the party is their initials, GOP - Guardians of Privilege.

This is America. When the people cry for real change, they get labels like Populism. There is little change. This reality has a label. It is called Gridlock. As the dust clears, we will be able to see the tears of the losers. We will be able to see the tears of joy for the winners. We will never get to see the tears of pain by citizens who are suffering due to the pandemic, loss of work and all the repercussions of the two issues. As the lingering effects of the last stimulus fades and new data shows the increase in bankruptcies, a call to end bipartisanship will emerge. This will be nothing more than someone seeking to imprint their name on the national scene. Politicians are already looking at 2022. They have no interest other than ego. Maybe because Congress consists of millionaires and not real people with first hand knowledge of what life is really like in America. This is why I call for a new third political party for the people, the Liberty Party.

Nevertheless, whatever happens from impeachment to stimulus, it will effect the stock market, our economy and currency. The market is fooling themselves under the eye of greed. Reality will hit the market and them like a car skidding on ice at an on coming truck.

I have already provided you with insights to our dollar. My calls have been correct and the dollar will fall into a new range of 86 to 92. This devaluation will be good for gold. In addition, the stimulus talk will only cause more dollars to be printed which is also a positive for gold. By the way, this is the year of the white metal (read silver) according to the Chinese zodiac. Biden will push for another $1400 to make the original talk of $2,000 a reality. The dollar will not only be hit by stimulus, but medical costs for vaccines, for other stimulus like infrastructure and projects for reelection by politicians, especially Republicans. They will sell their vote in private to democrats for legislation. After last weeks disgrace by Trump's followers, people will forget that the "Donald" even advocated the $2,000 check. 

The real important aspect will be the timing of whatever comes forth as stimulus. The Democrats will seek impeachment again. They want to put the nail in the coffin on Trump. The Republican politicians will be looking at 2022. They will do nothing for America unless they can spin some positives for themselves. They want Biden and the Democrats to fail. It is like the Eagles song, Lying Eyes. 

If the stimulus talk is pushed back until after the inaugural, the timing will be too late. The whole event will drag out until spring. By that time, we, at Evolution see a "M" economy. The pattern is already appearing. The first leg down was last March. Then, we had a quick recovery after the lockdown. The present second wave is casting doubts about the recovery. The election results will raise hopes. Reality will cause everything to crash. This completes the pattern. How long it lasts can only be told as it happens. 

Bonds...

are saying that a good stimulus plan is fading fast. Price levels suggest that inflation is awakening. The real trendline will appear by the end of January. By that time the number of bankruptcies will be alarming. Unemployment has fallen to 6.7%. It will probably drop even further due to the holiday season hiring. When the layoffs start hitting over 750,000 each week by the end of January, the trendline will have its new direction. In addition, so will the price of gold.

Gold Trendline...

had been in correction mode since 7th of August when gold hit its new all-time high of $2062.50. It found a resistance bottom at $1850. Last week this down, trendline was broken. Last Friday, it surged upward on strong volume to $1951.70. Gold got confirmation with GDX. GDX rose from the corrective low of $36 to close at $41.42. Yes, they whacked god again last week, but when the knowledge and reality of spending and taxes and more spending hits the news, gold will soar. Gold is forming a "W" pattern.

2cd. Opinion

There are other ways to look at gold. One can see the miners are rising. This is harmony in the sector. There are the historical references like the price of one ounce of gold to the Dow Jones price. When the ratio is one, gold is fairly priced. Given this aspect, the price of gold has a long ways to go. Then, you can view charts with inflation adjusted price? Then, you can look at the relative evaluation of gold to the price of gold miners? You can relate the price of gold to the Federal Reserve balance sheet? You can also see how the ETFs in gold will raise the price of the miners when the gold price rises. By the way, the ETFs have more gold under their portfolio than ever before. All of these are check marks for certain people. These are stat guys. They are like football bettors who want to know how a team does on grass as opposed to artificial turf. I like some of their studies, but our Economic Evangelist is more practical. He uses this study.

!965 Ford Mustang...

sold for $1995. The price of gold that year was $35.12. Keep in mind the price of gold was suppressed until Nixon's move to drop the gold standard in 1971. The Dow Jones was at 969 in 1965. You could also buy a Hershey candy bar for .05 cents. Today, that candy bar costs more than one dollar. Inflation caused a 20x price increase. Inflation shows the effects of devaluation. Devaluation's chief cause is by excessive printing. Stimulus is printing. Our model uses the previous high of gold. This was in 1980. It reached $850. A new 1980 Ford Mustang cost $5338. So, if we use that price when gold was free to trade on the market and divide it into the cost of a 2021 model, inflation points to 5x. If we multiply $850 by 5x (times), we get a price for gold. It is $4250. I don't think fiat governments will let that happen. They will use all their power to intervene. However, they cannot stop gold completely. Continue the exercise.

A new 2021 Ford Mustang can be purchased for $26,900. However, a top line version costs over $74,000. How about those numbers for the value of the dollar that is destroyed by inflation. Inflation also acts positive for gold. Gold never really loses its value. By using this example. we expect gold to rise to a minimum of $2650. and as high as $3700.  

As stated in previous pieces, we like four gold miners along with gold or silver coins. One in the group can be replaced by a fellow miner in Australia. Newcrest Gold is good, but Kirkland Lake Gold (KL) could be better. We also like Barrick Gold (GOLD), Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), and Argonaut Gold (ARNGF). Dear Reader, at least, American readers, if you make out well with gold, buy an American car. Maybe the electric Mustang? It is beautiful. Peace.