Odds and Ends: October 2022

- Fools take to themselves the respect that is given to their office.

- Aesop

Market Outlook

The recent bounce/rally in the market can be traced directly to the pullback in the dollar. Any decline in King Dollar will give the market breathing room. The dollar closed at 111.98 last Friday. The market will continue its upward move as the dollar tests 110.05. This will be big. It connects to the calendar as the Fed has its next meeting on the 2cd. of November. If the dollar returns to its upward trend, the market dies. If the dollar falls, then the market rally will continue. We stated that we believe the Fed will stay in character and blink with only a half point rate increase. We could be wrong. If the dollar does fall, gold will be the biggest beneficiary. Even though gold has declined 25% in the past year, if you look at the other currencies, it did not lose a dime. It is at its all-time high versus the Yen. The Fed will not like that.

Speaking of Rate Increases...

are you familar with the Taylor Rule? The theory says that to fight inflation with interest rate hikes. You must raise the rate by 1.5x the inflation level. Even with the manipulated inflation report by the government (inflation @ 8.6%) this would suggest an interest rate of 12%. Ouch!

I can do that

Take a job like the Prime Minister of the UK. You accomplish nothing for less than 50-days, resign and collect a pension of $115,000 for life. What do I have to do to apply?

God Bless...

Congressman Mooney of W. Virginia. He re-introduced the "Gold Standard" for legislation. He won't get much press for his reasoning: gold gives us a stable prices, fights inflation and it forces government to keep spending in check. It protects our standard of living. These are all things the Fed destroys with fiat money.

Three Strikes and You Are Out!

The news is so sad. Kids cannot learn to accept that life has ups and downs. Killing and dying for nothing? Then, we read about the corporate world. Our free market is so much like democracy. People abuse freedoms. In this case, for money and greed. Where is the public responsibility and trust with TikTok pushing a "Choke" challenge? How can the CEO of Fisher-Price who appears before Congress and say that he does not know about any complaints over his products when 14 babies have died because his products are defective? They won't spend money to do research to ensure their product is safe. Then, Unilever puts out products with cancer causing chemicals. They have the resources to produce a safe, quality product. They cut corners for more profits. Well, if repeat (three felonies) criminals should be locked up for life because they cannot adjust to civil society, then, repeat corporate companies should be banned from the market place after three violations of consumer trust. Can I hear an Amen?             Peace.