Odds and Ends: April 2023

 We begin with the market. It displayed some clues that we believe adds conviction to our recession call. This will send the market elevator down.

Market Clues:

Last Friday, during the trading session, the dollar began an upward bounce. The market immediately tanked. This led to the market low of the day and had enough steam to carry the Dow index lower for the week. This is a BIG tell. It confirms our point that the market still works in conjunction with King Dollar. Dollar up, market down and conversely, dollar down, market up. There are other clues. 

Market Breadth

The McClellan Oscillator is decisively bearish. Market action has more stocks down than up. Tesla is a firm that highlights the negative effect. It is not just charting that uncovers problems. The fundamentals of companies also indicate internal problems. P&G is a well-known firm with a dividend. However, did you know that that had 165 products for sale and now, only 65? In addition, they raised their prices by 20% last year and now, they have increased their prices by another 10%.  They are not selling anymore. They are receiving higher income from their sales. Generic items are cutting into their sales due to inflation. Higher price brand names are losing market share. In addition, many firms across many sectors are continuing to lay off workers. The latest report says another 1400 stores will be closing. If you multiply the stores with workers in each one, the numbers become quite high. This is a slow razor cut to the economy. At Evolution, we put no faith in government reports on unemployment.

Commodities

Unlike the Federal Reserve, we always include oil as an important indicator. It failed to breakout above $87. It is out of gas (can I say that). The easiest price move is down. There is also a gap at $75.13. This will be the test in oil.

If you check with Dr Copper, he had a bad week. Together, these two point the market down. It a related aspect, the Federal Reserve stated that they will not be saying anything until their next meeting in May. I'll believe it like Thomas believed the Lord rose from the dead. 

Other Aspects

We told you that commercial real estate is in big trouble due to short loan time that is combined to rising rates. We also mentioned that bankruptcies will happen, especially to zombie firms. It has begun and Bed, Bath and Beyond are added to the list. Not good.

Last point: Consider in 2000, China exports to the US was worth $25 billion. Today, even with the BS about tariffs, China exports is worth $3.5 trillion or 140x more! Tax all imports and protect American jobs! The Communists' egos do not thank us for taking their nation from peasant status to number one in the world. They are our enemy. They constantly lie, cheat and steal. We should end all trade with them. I know that cannot be done overnight. We should mandate to our greedy, outsourcing firms that they have five years to get out of China. We find our solution quite ironic. We use a five-year plan on the Commies. 

In other news, a report on alternative energy proves that our leaders have no vision. Our solar influence is nowhere near where it needs to be. JFL gives one great idea. In our cities, the mayors should pass a construction mandate: All new construction of four stories or more, has to have a solar roof. This will create a movement in the American solar industry and create high paying quality jobs. This will not affect residential housing, but as solar gets cheaper with the mandate, new homes could afford the change for the better.

However, our wind power production continues to grow. We, at Evolution, are getting older and our solution for our nation's fresh water is still not published. Then, we read this: In California, our leading state, 920,000 people are drinking tainted water. Not good.   Peace.