Odds and Ends: February 2024

- "You have heard that it was said, 'You shall love your neighbor and hate your enemy. But I say to you, love your enemies, and pray for those who persecute you...'" 

- Mt. 5:43- 44.

Confusion

We all suffer from it from time-to-time. So much hits our minds that it clouds our judgement. It recalls the gospel of last Sunday. This has got to be the most difficult statute from our Lord. At one time, I hated my older brother. Relations in families have situations where one relative has not spoken to another for decades. How can a Ukrainian love a Russian? How can citizens in the US love China when it causes so much harm to our nation? Can a Jew love a Palestine? How about Blacks and Whites in America? The task seems unachievable. 

Dear Reader, we should look to Germany for the answer. They had a 30 Year War, a civil war over religion. Somehow, they put away their hatred, their revenge and remembered that they are all German. It led to the nation's unification. Then, a 12 year slip into darkness. Today, they make a conscious effort to remind each other of their sin. They make memorials to their sin with an effort to love each other, especially Jews. No one here at Evolution has the answer. We all agree that it begins with a positive step. As for the market, confusion reigns.

Parabolic

The S&P went ballistic. It was 3800 last March. It hit 5111 last week. We, at Evolution are confused. Nothing new happened to spur the advance. Retail sales fell sharply for January. It fell eight times more than what "experts" predicted. In fact, retail has fallen month-over-month and yoy. Big ticket items like autos, electronics and appliances also fell mom and yoy. Confusion! 

Tail of Two Techs

Nvidia (NVDA) gave the market a vitamin energy. The stock was $225 last March. It hit $823 last week. This is the poster child for a parabolic move. Then, we have the tech, Palo Alto (PANW). It rose from last year at $180 to hit $380 on Valentine's Day. Last week, the bottom fell out. It sank to $260 on strong volume with $220 in its sights. What gives? Confusion.

We remind you that the market seems to be replaying the year 2000. Prior to the millennium, Cisco was the superstar stock. It went parabolic. A hold forever. It crashed. It has never reached the high that it had in 2000. There are many other examples. The best and latest is the Nikkei Index in Japan. It went parabolic in the 80s. Well, it just finally reached a new high after 34 years. Let that timeline sink into your stream of thinking.  We also read about a new IPO, Reddit (RDDT). The company was founded in 2005. It has never made money. It lost $90 million in 2023. It will receive a meme calling. We say, "Beware!" The market to us is way overpriced. The CAPE is 33. To understand that stat, the CAPE in 1929 was 30 before the crash. Leave a little room in your cortex for that knowledge.  Of course, we admit that we are confused. but we remember the words of wisdom, "It is better to be safe than sorry."    Peace.