2cd Opinion: Outlook 2026

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Concensus Outlook 2026

Yahoo Finance ran an article where they cited every Wall St. analyst. They all see an up-market in 2026. We expressed our worries, but the charts agree with Wall St. Since that publication, the geo-political landscape took a dramatic change with the US taking the president of Venezuela, Nicolas Madero prisoner. 

One would think that news of this magnitude will shake-up the market. It won't. However, the ramifications could change the decade, depending on how one looks at the timeline. 

Russia attacking Ukraine in 2022 put all Western nations on notice. Israel's verbal conflicts with anti-Israel parties ended in open conflict in Gaza in 2023. China announces that Taiwan is her territory. They begin military maneuvers in 2024 around the island and continue today. This is too many geo-political conflicts. Any one of them could lead into another world war. Consider: Russia continues its fight to conquer Ukraine. Guerrilla warfare could develop in the Middle East. China attacks Taiwan? 

Even if none of those dreaded outcomes come into play, the termoil in Venezuela will be an ongoing affair. First, the trial of Madero or maybe he is assassinated? That is not the dangerous part. Within the nation, the drug cartels have money, weapons and power. Civil war is not out of the question? This could spill over into the neighboring nations. South America could become like the Middle East. This is not good for the world or for peace. Making money from the market will mean nothing if we live in fear of retaliation, terrorists and constant war. This is a very dangerous moment for everyone.

Meanwhile

We know from history that the trouble with Venezuela and the other conflicts in the world do not effect Wall St. When President Kennedy was assassinated, nothing changed. Nothing will change again because of the Madero situation. With that said, consider this fact about the S&P 500. In 2023, it rose 24%. In 2024, it continued another 23%. In 2025, it climbed another 16%. Nothing goes straight up. We stated that although we agree with the positive market outlook, we tempered our opinion to mid-February. 

Originally, we were going to provide an in depth outlook from two big Wall St. firms, Morgan Stanley and Charles Schwab. The concensus of the two is this: Small caps will benefit from the Federal Reserve rate cuts. Money will continue to flow into AI. The only worry is possible job losses. China will continue to lead the world in innovations. They have more patents than the US. No one fears defaults. We see this as a red flag. Bifurcation will continue with the K-style economy. We stated in previous pieces that Wall Street no longer represents the US economy. Our nation continues to shrink the middle-class with little social mobility. We are becoming a two-tier class system (wealthy and poor). Not good. We pray that our negative fears will not happen and world governments take a time-out. They step back and let things cool down. Maybe the meme of John Lennon resurfaces, "All we are saying, is give peace a chance..."  ...Peace.