- All that glitters is not gold.
- An aphorism used by John Florio and William Shakespeare.
Cycle
We told you over a year ago that gold has a 12-year cycle. The last down version was in 2024 to which started the new cycle. It took less than two years (January 2026) to establish a new record high that broke over $5,000 to 5,600. In addition, like seasonal buying, hiring or selling and layoffs, gold is entering its seasonal buying period (end of August to early February).
4-Seasons
No, not the singing group although we love them. We are talking nature's cycle. Some people love the spring and some the summer, but we like the fall because His nature gives us such beautiful colors. It just so happens that baseball has its championship and football begins. We love it all and if you throw in some upside with gold, we say, "Praise, the Lord!" PS: Sorry, winter. As a kid, it was my favorite, but as an adult, no way, Jose.
Right on Cue
You may think that gold is down, but you would be wrong. The charts indicate the seasonal buying in gold. It did fall, but with war, trade wars, inflation and $40 trillion of debt, it is rising. The charts show that when it fell, it held around the $4,000 price level (give or take a daily price change). We stated that gold could fall to a $3,800 to $4,200 range. We pat ourselves on the back. Now, we see a new range level. The low around $4,200 to $4,750. Monthly, resistance is at $4,800. If it pierces that level, a test of the record high is coming. We can see this clearly in the ETFs for gold.
GLD...
...is the ETF for gold. It has broken out at $380 and hit $430. It retraced to $400. The next target is $440. Follow the 50-day (388) and 200-day (406) moving average. The sign that you want to see is the 50-day crossong over the 200-day.
GDX...
...is the gold miners index (ETF). It broke out at $80 to hit $105. It is now retracing. It should rise to challenge the all-time high at $117.
We Like...
The same three miners that we mentioned in the past: Newmont, Barrick and Alamos Gold. Newmont and Barrick have very low P/E ratio. Any dollar weakness and they will rise, very high. They all pay a dividend. However, as always we worry about recommending a firm because if we are wrong, we feel a mental pain. With that said, we believe in the three above with one new, lower price company. It is an explorer. It does have income with a producing mine. The real benefit is its control of a mine in the top producing region in Nevada. Newmont and Barrick have adjacent mines. Some big names in gold are attached to it like Sprott and Peter Schiff. Scorpio Gold (SRCRF) had 5x the volume last week. Needless to say the stock rocketed from $.21 to $.61 cents. It retraced to $.26 cents. A good entry point would be between $.24 to $.26 cents. Also, there is the possibility of it being a takeover as it has all its permits and drilling results which are very good...Peace.
