The Monday QBs of the pundit world will all claim to have known the exact moment which caused a turn in the stock market and the economy too. They just never stated it publicly. I have. I see some serious buildup over the last eight years, especially in credit which the media forgets to remind you, is debt.
$29 Trillion
is the present total in corporate bonds. For example, Netflix will be adding to this total as they owe $4.7-billion due this year for payment for content. I surmise that because the company only brings in $6+b and the liability is two-thirds the amount. All the borrowing is reaching a debt overload point and it must be repaid. The strains of all this borrowing is starting to show. The first signs have been in all the downgrades by the rating services. These quiet notices are the highest since crash of 2008. The reason behind the downgrades in some US and some global entities is because they are failing to earn enough revenues to fund their respective companies and cover their liabilities.
Things Are Connected
Then, there is the connection of this risky debt to the bond market. Borrowing spreads reveal this risk. Spreads have widened to 1.84 percentage points from the 1.18 back in March of 2015. This change has not gone unnoticed by investors or the market. It snapped the winning streak of six years of investing in corporate bonds. Investors took a small loss of .02%, however this could be the turning point. I have long opposed the Fed in general and especially, their zero rate policy. Global and US companies are on the hook for $29 T and if rates rise, the value of these bonds declines which only makes their debt exponentially more costly. Peter Schiff predicted the other day that he sees a recession and the Fed turning to negative interest rates. His call on the Fed in 2015 was perfect and if he is correct again, he should have his own talk show.
Standard and Poor's
said the downgrades of global companies is because there debt is 3x earnings before adjustments like taxes and depreciation. This negative aspect is why S & P downgraded 863 corporate issuers last year. Yes, many of these companies are commodity in nature if that is what you are thinking, but the misleading of CEOs of the value of shares is high on the list.
Usual Suspects
Most of the borrowing went for share buybacks, dividends and merger activity. On the bright side of Standard and Poor's report is that the global outlook is stable. Sorry, dear reader I don't see it that way. For example, the same rating services said that Lehman was secure the day before it exploded. In other related aspects global companies borrowed $9.6 T in US denominated issues in 2015 and since their currencies have declined in value the payment becomes much more costly. Japan just realized this aspect and the BOJ just joined the negative interest rate for fools of fiat money. Just think my Japanese brothers, now you have to pay the bank to hold your money. This was one of the arguments against gold as it doesn't pay interest and by the way, gold is growing in value against the Yen...against the Yuan...against the Rand...against the Euro...against the Ruble, Rupee and on and on.
End the Fed!
Wednesday, February 3, 2016
Wednesday, January 27, 2016
Risks Escalating
- "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."
- Yogi Berra
In my Forecast 2016 I mentioned many factors that could cause a severe reaction in the market and overall economy. In just a few weeks many of those risks have increased rapidly and this in itself has caused the market to stagger. As I claim in my unpublished work that every action has a reaction and things seldom operate in a vacuum. Let us take a look.
Weather: is being mentioned in this election year and climate change will be such an issue that new regulations will develop. The problem is both what is offered and the behind the scenes pushback on businesses that these rules could effect. Good ideas are out there, but many factors suppress their formation like creditability of influence, the willingness of politicians to weigh success over ego and how it is presented to the public, especially after the response of the opposition.
Cyber-Hacking: The Chinese Premier shook hands with President Obama, saying that he will look into ending cyber-hacking. The next day the hacking continued. Candidates like Donald Trump are looking to impose tariffs on Chinese products to help American workers and companies. It is a small step to punish Chinese hacking by adding financial fines to cutting them off completely until the theft stops. I like this protection for our economy, however one must be careful not to offend a nation and start another cold war.
New Bretton Woods: With the currency battles going full blast like China devaluing amongst others and the consequences of low oil prices to exporting nations like Canada which some analyst see falling to .52 cents against the US dollar, something needs to be done. Going back in time when Tricky Dicky took the US off the gold standard(1971) and ended convertibility to gold, the world has lacked a stable financial currency to transact trade. The US dollar won by default since we had the largest economy and strongest military. However, even President Nixon knew his bombshell would have repercussions. He offered in a speech to have another Bretton Woods which was an allied agreement to undertake world commerce after WWII. All these years later, the world still waits for an agreement. It needs one, least a bureaucratic agency like the IMF takes control, especially if another crisis develops and it introduces its SDR currency to the world. It is always best to have things and feelings expressed without the pressure of a crisis rather than take what is pushed out in times of turmoil. Does TARP ring a bell? You remember that, don't you: Money for the banks at taxpayer's expense. Keep in mind we haven't heard about Greece in awhile and Brazil may get the Olympics in 2016, but its economy ain't worth bronze or its currency.
MISC.
At certain times certain industries merge. We are at that time in the oil industry and all the service branches that extend from its core. There has been talk of Western Refining taking over NTI. I'm sure the phones are ringing off the hook as oil hit $26 this past week before rebounding to $32 as if that is a rebound? Many small or under-capitalized firms will be force into bankruptcy. The smart ones will utilize a merger to survive. Don't listen to the talking heads who say this is normal which it is, but okay which it isn't. There could be serious problems like derivatives firing off. Every action has a reaction and things seldom operate in a vacuum. Sound familiar? One problem. The potential merger talks will uncover "poison pills" and class action suits will fly all over the place like on late night TV ads.
One related aspect to mergers is funding and its cost. A serious liquidity problem is developing in the market. The Fed is now controlling the "repo" market by injecting one trillion on a daily level. They have crowded out all the old players. In addition, treasury bonds are separating to extreme levels from the cost of junk bonds. This is a sign of liquidity problems in the market. It reveals the market is stressed.
P.S. :This just in - Apple reported a sales decline. Can Samsung be far behind? After all how many people are left who don't have a cell phone and so many have more than one. Can you say, saturation point?
Taxes
desperate governments will seek revenues. Good companies like Silver Wheaton and others will be in their crosshairs. I predicted a rise in the US gas tax, but it won't happen until after the election. However, desperate governments could respond sooner than later and it has been months since Greece has been in the headlines not to mention the on going problem with refugees in Europe and budgets that are in duress.
Adding the above and you have a pot brewed by a witch. Keep your eyes and ears open.
- Yogi Berra
In my Forecast 2016 I mentioned many factors that could cause a severe reaction in the market and overall economy. In just a few weeks many of those risks have increased rapidly and this in itself has caused the market to stagger. As I claim in my unpublished work that every action has a reaction and things seldom operate in a vacuum. Let us take a look.
Weather: is being mentioned in this election year and climate change will be such an issue that new regulations will develop. The problem is both what is offered and the behind the scenes pushback on businesses that these rules could effect. Good ideas are out there, but many factors suppress their formation like creditability of influence, the willingness of politicians to weigh success over ego and how it is presented to the public, especially after the response of the opposition.
Cyber-Hacking: The Chinese Premier shook hands with President Obama, saying that he will look into ending cyber-hacking. The next day the hacking continued. Candidates like Donald Trump are looking to impose tariffs on Chinese products to help American workers and companies. It is a small step to punish Chinese hacking by adding financial fines to cutting them off completely until the theft stops. I like this protection for our economy, however one must be careful not to offend a nation and start another cold war.
New Bretton Woods: With the currency battles going full blast like China devaluing amongst others and the consequences of low oil prices to exporting nations like Canada which some analyst see falling to .52 cents against the US dollar, something needs to be done. Going back in time when Tricky Dicky took the US off the gold standard(1971) and ended convertibility to gold, the world has lacked a stable financial currency to transact trade. The US dollar won by default since we had the largest economy and strongest military. However, even President Nixon knew his bombshell would have repercussions. He offered in a speech to have another Bretton Woods which was an allied agreement to undertake world commerce after WWII. All these years later, the world still waits for an agreement. It needs one, least a bureaucratic agency like the IMF takes control, especially if another crisis develops and it introduces its SDR currency to the world. It is always best to have things and feelings expressed without the pressure of a crisis rather than take what is pushed out in times of turmoil. Does TARP ring a bell? You remember that, don't you: Money for the banks at taxpayer's expense. Keep in mind we haven't heard about Greece in awhile and Brazil may get the Olympics in 2016, but its economy ain't worth bronze or its currency.
MISC.
At certain times certain industries merge. We are at that time in the oil industry and all the service branches that extend from its core. There has been talk of Western Refining taking over NTI. I'm sure the phones are ringing off the hook as oil hit $26 this past week before rebounding to $32 as if that is a rebound? Many small or under-capitalized firms will be force into bankruptcy. The smart ones will utilize a merger to survive. Don't listen to the talking heads who say this is normal which it is, but okay which it isn't. There could be serious problems like derivatives firing off. Every action has a reaction and things seldom operate in a vacuum. Sound familiar? One problem. The potential merger talks will uncover "poison pills" and class action suits will fly all over the place like on late night TV ads.
One related aspect to mergers is funding and its cost. A serious liquidity problem is developing in the market. The Fed is now controlling the "repo" market by injecting one trillion on a daily level. They have crowded out all the old players. In addition, treasury bonds are separating to extreme levels from the cost of junk bonds. This is a sign of liquidity problems in the market. It reveals the market is stressed.
P.S. :This just in - Apple reported a sales decline. Can Samsung be far behind? After all how many people are left who don't have a cell phone and so many have more than one. Can you say, saturation point?
Taxes
desperate governments will seek revenues. Good companies like Silver Wheaton and others will be in their crosshairs. I predicted a rise in the US gas tax, but it won't happen until after the election. However, desperate governments could respond sooner than later and it has been months since Greece has been in the headlines not to mention the on going problem with refugees in Europe and budgets that are in duress.
Adding the above and you have a pot brewed by a witch. Keep your eyes and ears open.
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Firing Blanks ?
In the latest battle within the economy since the financial crisis of 2008, the US government, led by the Fed has responded with all types of stimulus because they believe that you can engineer an economy.
The Fed cut interest rates to near zero. It bailed out dozens of banking institutions. The federal government bailed out GM, AIG and many more. Today, it uses HARP loans for the housing industry along with lowering lending standards in its two SSEs.
Then, the Fed added QE 1. This swelled their balance sheets. They knew that they were putting the bond market out of whack, but they are always right, least of all you and me are wrong. As time passed, they said that QE would end. The addicted markets began to crater. They immediately added QE II. When this failed, they showed their thinking: add credit to debt or more debt upon debt. We got QE III.
The Fed now says, "no more." They insist that rates will rise and return to normal. In December 2015 they demonstatred their conviction with a token quarter point rise. They claim that in 2016 there will be a gradual increase with a possible four more interest hikes.
The market is again cratering under the addiction of cheap money and begets the question, what will the Fed do now? Will they follow through on their guidance?
The Wall Street Journal has the same questions. They worry that if another recession develops, will the Fed have any ammo in its bag of tricks to "engineer" another recovery?
I look at the same questions. Keep in mind the US government has tools for stimulus. The US could...
1) lower interest rates except that they are near zero at present.
2) cut taxes, but our government is already straddled with excess deficits. If interest rates were to return to normal, our payments just on the interest would exceed $ one trillion per year. In addition, the government is facing more deficits to cover entitlements like Social Security and Medicare which are underfunded. Their responses will be muted, especially with gridlock in an election year.
Also, state governments are seeking revenues and they have begun to raise taxes on fees, gasoline and of course, the sales tax. Not good.
3) print money. Banks do this every day with our fractional banking system, but confidence in the fiat system is beginning to wake people up to its dangers. This process is inflationary, but the media at present is another shill as they declare no inflation! People are becoming aware of these lies too. Praise the Lord!
The Fed will help, but the bond market is facing its own crisis. Higher rates make lower yielding bonds lose value and this could trigger a liquidity crisis bigger than the financial disaster of 2008. This approach has serious limitations because fiat value or valueless will be exposed which is good for gold. This is the reason why our Founding Fathers chose gold to back our currency. It is slow and steady rather than boom and bust.
Again, one cannot underestimate the "tools" that these arrogant, unelected men who are taking control of not only the nation, but global economy can perform. According to them, we are right and you and the market are wrong. They insist that they can equate humans to a thesis and I see this ending badly with "pet rocks" flying. I think Yogi Berra has the correct answer for central bankers, "In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is." I love Yogi! End the Fed!
The Fed cut interest rates to near zero. It bailed out dozens of banking institutions. The federal government bailed out GM, AIG and many more. Today, it uses HARP loans for the housing industry along with lowering lending standards in its two SSEs.
Then, the Fed added QE 1. This swelled their balance sheets. They knew that they were putting the bond market out of whack, but they are always right, least of all you and me are wrong. As time passed, they said that QE would end. The addicted markets began to crater. They immediately added QE II. When this failed, they showed their thinking: add credit to debt or more debt upon debt. We got QE III.
The Fed now says, "no more." They insist that rates will rise and return to normal. In December 2015 they demonstatred their conviction with a token quarter point rise. They claim that in 2016 there will be a gradual increase with a possible four more interest hikes.
The market is again cratering under the addiction of cheap money and begets the question, what will the Fed do now? Will they follow through on their guidance?
The Wall Street Journal has the same questions. They worry that if another recession develops, will the Fed have any ammo in its bag of tricks to "engineer" another recovery?
I look at the same questions. Keep in mind the US government has tools for stimulus. The US could...
1) lower interest rates except that they are near zero at present.
2) cut taxes, but our government is already straddled with excess deficits. If interest rates were to return to normal, our payments just on the interest would exceed $ one trillion per year. In addition, the government is facing more deficits to cover entitlements like Social Security and Medicare which are underfunded. Their responses will be muted, especially with gridlock in an election year.
Also, state governments are seeking revenues and they have begun to raise taxes on fees, gasoline and of course, the sales tax. Not good.
3) print money. Banks do this every day with our fractional banking system, but confidence in the fiat system is beginning to wake people up to its dangers. This process is inflationary, but the media at present is another shill as they declare no inflation! People are becoming aware of these lies too. Praise the Lord!
The Fed will help, but the bond market is facing its own crisis. Higher rates make lower yielding bonds lose value and this could trigger a liquidity crisis bigger than the financial disaster of 2008. This approach has serious limitations because fiat value or valueless will be exposed which is good for gold. This is the reason why our Founding Fathers chose gold to back our currency. It is slow and steady rather than boom and bust.
Again, one cannot underestimate the "tools" that these arrogant, unelected men who are taking control of not only the nation, but global economy can perform. According to them, we are right and you and the market are wrong. They insist that they can equate humans to a thesis and I see this ending badly with "pet rocks" flying. I think Yogi Berra has the correct answer for central bankers, "In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is." I love Yogi! End the Fed!
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
Emerging Market Malise
There has been a media divide in the last decade over who is considered to be in the emerging market category. The BRICS(Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) were all members of that global family, although I never saw Russia as an emerging market nation. They are leaders in many categories and not just oil, but they still get slighted due to the Cold War.
No, today it is comprised of third tier trading nations like Thailand, Viet Nam, Chile and so forth.
I guess from time-to-time nations like Libya were in this grouping as well as other examples, except social change has also caused economic woe. In fact, one could make an argument that the Arab Spring, now in the forefront of social change, will cause tumultuous economic change both in the nation of origin and the European nations where the refugees finally settle. Nevertheless, this piece is directed toward the present make-up of the third tier group as well as the BRIC nation's since the global market is interconnected. A ripple off one coast could become a tsunami when it crosses the ocean to another shore.
US Bond's
were issued in mass by the emerging market community. Governments and corporations took advantage of cheap money created by the US Fed. They knew the US market was safe and secure. This money funded government programs and allowed corporations to expand their capacity to grab market share. The timing was excellent from 2010 until 2015. Then, the slowdown in China and Europe ricocheted back to their border like a boomerang as Australia is a prime example. In addition, the period marked the introduction of QE in EU. Japan devalued along with China. The market devalued Brazil, India, South Africa, Russia along with almost every world nation. This is the central point of contention. The money raised by issuing bonds must be repaid and repaid in dollars. The problem for emerging nation's is that the devaluation of their currency makes this payment of the bonds more costly. The dollar rise also sent inflation around the world. Imports cause more and eventually people buy less to evade inflation. As a result governments cut back on programs and future plans as they struggle to meet the obligation of the bonds. Argentina is the poster child for failure to repay. The next step along those lines is Zimbabwe. Only a fool would follow that path.
Declining Oil
has not helped that much because again, oil is priced in dollars and since currencies are lower, this almost becomes a wash. There has been some help with lower prices, but then again, many of this group gets its revenues from oil. The International Energy Agency(IEA) says oil reserves are at 3 billion which is an all-time high. This is not good for the price of oil or nations who export oil for revenues. The OPEC leader, Saudi Arabia is pumping oil like crazy to discombobulate the US shale industry. This action is not going over so well with the other members of OPEC. Some world exporters like Libya has seen their production decline, but soon, sanctions to Iran will end and even more oil will be available. Speaking of sanctions, the one placed on Russia not only hurt Russia, but world trade which declined in 2015.
The iShares MSCI Emerging Market Index(EEM) plunged another 1.9% and is down 4.4% for the first week of 2016. It has returned to the 2009 level which is a valuation below the level at which these nation's first issued the bond's back in 2010. This could also cause another crisis because insurance on these bonds or derivatives will alarm the world markets because written contracts call for certain evaluation levels to be current. I have no idea how bad that can be or the bond's issued could be called and rolled over, but whatever happens, it can't be good.
No, today it is comprised of third tier trading nations like Thailand, Viet Nam, Chile and so forth.
I guess from time-to-time nations like Libya were in this grouping as well as other examples, except social change has also caused economic woe. In fact, one could make an argument that the Arab Spring, now in the forefront of social change, will cause tumultuous economic change both in the nation of origin and the European nations where the refugees finally settle. Nevertheless, this piece is directed toward the present make-up of the third tier group as well as the BRIC nation's since the global market is interconnected. A ripple off one coast could become a tsunami when it crosses the ocean to another shore.
US Bond's
were issued in mass by the emerging market community. Governments and corporations took advantage of cheap money created by the US Fed. They knew the US market was safe and secure. This money funded government programs and allowed corporations to expand their capacity to grab market share. The timing was excellent from 2010 until 2015. Then, the slowdown in China and Europe ricocheted back to their border like a boomerang as Australia is a prime example. In addition, the period marked the introduction of QE in EU. Japan devalued along with China. The market devalued Brazil, India, South Africa, Russia along with almost every world nation. This is the central point of contention. The money raised by issuing bonds must be repaid and repaid in dollars. The problem for emerging nation's is that the devaluation of their currency makes this payment of the bonds more costly. The dollar rise also sent inflation around the world. Imports cause more and eventually people buy less to evade inflation. As a result governments cut back on programs and future plans as they struggle to meet the obligation of the bonds. Argentina is the poster child for failure to repay. The next step along those lines is Zimbabwe. Only a fool would follow that path.
Declining Oil
has not helped that much because again, oil is priced in dollars and since currencies are lower, this almost becomes a wash. There has been some help with lower prices, but then again, many of this group gets its revenues from oil. The International Energy Agency(IEA) says oil reserves are at 3 billion which is an all-time high. This is not good for the price of oil or nations who export oil for revenues. The OPEC leader, Saudi Arabia is pumping oil like crazy to discombobulate the US shale industry. This action is not going over so well with the other members of OPEC. Some world exporters like Libya has seen their production decline, but soon, sanctions to Iran will end and even more oil will be available. Speaking of sanctions, the one placed on Russia not only hurt Russia, but world trade which declined in 2015.
The iShares MSCI Emerging Market Index(EEM) plunged another 1.9% and is down 4.4% for the first week of 2016. It has returned to the 2009 level which is a valuation below the level at which these nation's first issued the bond's back in 2010. This could also cause another crisis because insurance on these bonds or derivatives will alarm the world markets because written contracts call for certain evaluation levels to be current. I have no idea how bad that can be or the bond's issued could be called and rolled over, but whatever happens, it can't be good.
Wednesday, January 6, 2016
Forecast 2016
- Today comes from yesterday and together forms a path toward tomorrow.
- JFL
Before I can go forward, I'd like to reflect on my 2015 calls.
Perfect Call
I said that Yellen would not raise rates and if she did, it would only be a quarter point and late in the year. And yet, not one pundit ever mentioned my blog. Go figure!
King Dollar
I said it would sink Dow profits. I'm a sage!
Market Correction
Wrong! I called for a 10% correction by the end of the first quarter and although January was down, the market rebounded to new highs. My only mistake was in timing because the market did fall 10% in August. However, truth be told, I was looking for a deeper correction. The composite was down 5% for the year, while NASDAQ was up 5%, however a few tech stocks like Netflix skew the index. Verification comes through the small caps which were down for the year. The uptrend has been broken both yearly and multi-yearly.
Currencies
I said that all fiat money would continue their race to the bottom. Bingo! My exact words.
"governments wanted a lower currency value to spur exports. Now, they will get it except the demand will also shrink(because their citizens pay higher costs) and new problems will surface like reserves to buy dollars and support their currency(bonds were issued in dollars and have to be repaid in dollars which cost them more.) Deficits will destroy budgets and plans for the future."
Gold
Wrong. Called for a $1350. price
Commodities in General
Wrong with warning of defaults, however this could be a timing issue again as hedging saved many oil companies. Nevertheless, in 2016 those contracts will expire and there will be defaults in oil. Any oil price below $32. will cause serious repercussions in the market.
Hacking
Correct and it will continue and get worse.
Taxes on Gas
Wrong, but again a timing issue. This will happen after the 2016 election.
TPP
Obama will keep backing it. My only hope is Sanders and Trump oppose it and win the public.
EU
Mixed. I called for a recession, however my prediction for QE was correct.
SA
Mixed bag. The dangers still exist especially for Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela.
Asia
Wrong as Thailand didn't suffer unrest. Japan weathered through another year with the Yen lower which helped their big exporting companies. Bank of Japan bought stocks to help their market and I missed that one.
Middle East
Wrong about another coup, but correct with displaced citizens. Findings on Ebola cure are still a work in progress, but the crisis has passed.
What do you think, dear reader? I think that I did B plus work and now, this is how I see it.
2016
The Fed will only add another quarter point, but really desire to get to 1%. At 1% the Fed can talk up ammunition if another crisis appears. Basically, another wait and see approach with a whole lot of BS!
The dollar will be range bound from 100 down to 93. Many other factors will determine its ultimate direction, especially with defaults in oil bonds and how the Fed responds to its reckless zero interest rates. If the dollar breaks above its high at 101, then new highs will come. Conversely, if it breaks below 93, then 85 is the next support level. Derivative triggers could cause a global recession, however that terrible danger could be put off until 2017. It is the ultimate weapon of financial destruction. Nevertheless, the debt market is, as it always was, a ticking time bomb caused by the Fed with low rates that provide cheap money, and the prospect of negative rates will only make everything that much more dangerous.
Currencies will continue to devalue which is a way to dump their exports on the US economy... I see the "hover-board" as a big fad, but since it is made by outsourced companies, little help for US manufacturing. It will continue to shrink, but toy companies will benefit with the fad. On the other Virtual Reality is expected to grow and surpass $150B in just four years. I'm not a gamer, but that is serious toy money.
Gold will also be range bound, but will respond to silver's action. I hope silver rises due to mining cutbacks in production and the demand by the solar industry. The price should be around $30. per ounce, so there is plenty of upside, although I don't see it rising that high. "Paper" gold trading could become a scandal. Paper trades exceed world supply many times over which is the manipulation of gold and silver. If there was actual delivery of these contacts - trouble in paradise with gold off the charts.
The market should drop 10% in the first quarter and I feel that it will eventually test the 2011 August lows. The real test will be in the action of the bond market. If defaults trigger problems, then derivatives could crumble everything with liquidity being a central point...I see S & P earnings falling into negative territory in the fourth quarter. This will be consecutive down earnings reports which in itself is a sign of a recession... Global markets, especially in Shanghai will pressure markets with declines. The Chinese ban on selling ends on 6 January. However, the ban has been extended for owners of 5%, which is hedge funds and institutions. Bottom line: you can buy, but you can't sell even if you want too. Yeah, that will spark new buyers into their market which happens to be dominated by individuals. The Chinese could do like Japan and buy their markets. This should be outlawed by law. Does the myth of the US Plunge Protection Team come into mind?
Mutual funds in the US had serious withdrawals in 2015 and this will increase in 2016 to which will add to the market drop. Just wait and find out that you cannot redeem your money. A serious, serious crisis is brewing.
Since 2016 is an election year and with the market catering, candidates will throw out all kinds of crap. I think that the idea of Mark Skousen's, Gross Output(GO) will catch hold by the media as it makes the US economy look better than it is in reality. Michael Burry, the man behind the movie, The Big Short, says he worries because big banks got bigger and the Fed is leveraged at 77 to 1 which makes it insolvent. Got gold anyone?
Like I stated above, I see hacking becoming worse and all the ways that physical money is being by-passed will only make things get worse if a crisis develops due to liquidity. I have warned you in the past, dear reader that there isn't enough money in circulation to cover the amount of debt in society. You should start paying bills with cash to understand its value. Money is not cheap!
Affordable Care Act will show its weakness and badly constructed as more and more health companies drop out of the exchanges. In addition, health prices are still rising. ACA is a terrible idea! There will also be a new buzz word in health care: Synthetic biology.
The EU will go deeper into debt due to the burden of the refugees. There will be backlashes, but I wonder do the refugees really appreciate the good will of so many or just how it effects me? It is no longer what my country can do for me, but what the global community can do for me. This will be a continuing saga, but no nation in SA offers a home to these people. I wonder about that too?
As for SA, Brazil will get the Olympics and social unrest about wages and living conditions as well as Argentina and Venezuela. The big Brazilian oil company should go bankrupt, but it will probably get a bailout. I see mucho unrest in SA.
The leap year won't have an answer for Chinese imperialism in the South Seas as military spending like in the US will be the Communist Party answer to help their economy. Not the answer!
Climate change will receive lip service of reforms. Promises will never be kept. Laws should be passed to demand solar energy on any new structure four floors or higher. Car companies should be pushed into NGC or electric models. The idea of tax credits will only burden society with another taxing bureaucracy. Instead, the government should impose tariffs on solar imports and provide tax credits to help US industries get their footing. Money should be given to states that pass solar building requirements. This is how I would answer the question. Denmark should be praised and copied as a great model of alternative energy.
The Middle East has been a sore spot in the world since the beginning of time. Palestine should be recognized and helped along with Israel. The deal with Iran holds some hope, but these people have a different culture than the West. Their religion, Islam has a serious flaw. Take 10 Muslims. You will get 5 Sunni and 5 Shite, however you will get 10 different interpretations of their teaching and beliefs. The Jewish religion has the same situation, except if you differ with a Jew, at most, he will shun you. These Muslims will kill you and destroy your church if you aren't one of their followers. These people are like the Catholic Church back in the Middle Ages when money and power blinded leaders. These people are worse. They're fanatics and I personally don't want anything to do with them until they can understand this principle: live and let live. Nothing there lasts, especially peace. This is a sore spot in the world and nothing has changed through time. No one can change culture only peace and love can show the way, but all we'll get is guns and war. Sorry, I cannot offer a better view, but keep on with self-improving and believing in peace and love. Amen.
- JFL
Before I can go forward, I'd like to reflect on my 2015 calls.
Perfect Call
I said that Yellen would not raise rates and if she did, it would only be a quarter point and late in the year. And yet, not one pundit ever mentioned my blog. Go figure!
King Dollar
I said it would sink Dow profits. I'm a sage!
Market Correction
Wrong! I called for a 10% correction by the end of the first quarter and although January was down, the market rebounded to new highs. My only mistake was in timing because the market did fall 10% in August. However, truth be told, I was looking for a deeper correction. The composite was down 5% for the year, while NASDAQ was up 5%, however a few tech stocks like Netflix skew the index. Verification comes through the small caps which were down for the year. The uptrend has been broken both yearly and multi-yearly.
Currencies
I said that all fiat money would continue their race to the bottom. Bingo! My exact words.
"governments wanted a lower currency value to spur exports. Now, they will get it except the demand will also shrink(because their citizens pay higher costs) and new problems will surface like reserves to buy dollars and support their currency(bonds were issued in dollars and have to be repaid in dollars which cost them more.) Deficits will destroy budgets and plans for the future."
Gold
Wrong. Called for a $1350. price
Commodities in General
Wrong with warning of defaults, however this could be a timing issue again as hedging saved many oil companies. Nevertheless, in 2016 those contracts will expire and there will be defaults in oil. Any oil price below $32. will cause serious repercussions in the market.
Hacking
Correct and it will continue and get worse.
Taxes on Gas
Wrong, but again a timing issue. This will happen after the 2016 election.
TPP
Obama will keep backing it. My only hope is Sanders and Trump oppose it and win the public.
EU
Mixed. I called for a recession, however my prediction for QE was correct.
SA
Mixed bag. The dangers still exist especially for Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela.
Asia
Wrong as Thailand didn't suffer unrest. Japan weathered through another year with the Yen lower which helped their big exporting companies. Bank of Japan bought stocks to help their market and I missed that one.
Middle East
Wrong about another coup, but correct with displaced citizens. Findings on Ebola cure are still a work in progress, but the crisis has passed.
What do you think, dear reader? I think that I did B plus work and now, this is how I see it.
2016
The Fed will only add another quarter point, but really desire to get to 1%. At 1% the Fed can talk up ammunition if another crisis appears. Basically, another wait and see approach with a whole lot of BS!
The dollar will be range bound from 100 down to 93. Many other factors will determine its ultimate direction, especially with defaults in oil bonds and how the Fed responds to its reckless zero interest rates. If the dollar breaks above its high at 101, then new highs will come. Conversely, if it breaks below 93, then 85 is the next support level. Derivative triggers could cause a global recession, however that terrible danger could be put off until 2017. It is the ultimate weapon of financial destruction. Nevertheless, the debt market is, as it always was, a ticking time bomb caused by the Fed with low rates that provide cheap money, and the prospect of negative rates will only make everything that much more dangerous.
Currencies will continue to devalue which is a way to dump their exports on the US economy... I see the "hover-board" as a big fad, but since it is made by outsourced companies, little help for US manufacturing. It will continue to shrink, but toy companies will benefit with the fad. On the other Virtual Reality is expected to grow and surpass $150B in just four years. I'm not a gamer, but that is serious toy money.
Gold will also be range bound, but will respond to silver's action. I hope silver rises due to mining cutbacks in production and the demand by the solar industry. The price should be around $30. per ounce, so there is plenty of upside, although I don't see it rising that high. "Paper" gold trading could become a scandal. Paper trades exceed world supply many times over which is the manipulation of gold and silver. If there was actual delivery of these contacts - trouble in paradise with gold off the charts.
The market should drop 10% in the first quarter and I feel that it will eventually test the 2011 August lows. The real test will be in the action of the bond market. If defaults trigger problems, then derivatives could crumble everything with liquidity being a central point...I see S & P earnings falling into negative territory in the fourth quarter. This will be consecutive down earnings reports which in itself is a sign of a recession... Global markets, especially in Shanghai will pressure markets with declines. The Chinese ban on selling ends on 6 January. However, the ban has been extended for owners of 5%, which is hedge funds and institutions. Bottom line: you can buy, but you can't sell even if you want too. Yeah, that will spark new buyers into their market which happens to be dominated by individuals. The Chinese could do like Japan and buy their markets. This should be outlawed by law. Does the myth of the US Plunge Protection Team come into mind?
Mutual funds in the US had serious withdrawals in 2015 and this will increase in 2016 to which will add to the market drop. Just wait and find out that you cannot redeem your money. A serious, serious crisis is brewing.
Since 2016 is an election year and with the market catering, candidates will throw out all kinds of crap. I think that the idea of Mark Skousen's, Gross Output(GO) will catch hold by the media as it makes the US economy look better than it is in reality. Michael Burry, the man behind the movie, The Big Short, says he worries because big banks got bigger and the Fed is leveraged at 77 to 1 which makes it insolvent. Got gold anyone?
Like I stated above, I see hacking becoming worse and all the ways that physical money is being by-passed will only make things get worse if a crisis develops due to liquidity. I have warned you in the past, dear reader that there isn't enough money in circulation to cover the amount of debt in society. You should start paying bills with cash to understand its value. Money is not cheap!
Affordable Care Act will show its weakness and badly constructed as more and more health companies drop out of the exchanges. In addition, health prices are still rising. ACA is a terrible idea! There will also be a new buzz word in health care: Synthetic biology.
The EU will go deeper into debt due to the burden of the refugees. There will be backlashes, but I wonder do the refugees really appreciate the good will of so many or just how it effects me? It is no longer what my country can do for me, but what the global community can do for me. This will be a continuing saga, but no nation in SA offers a home to these people. I wonder about that too?
As for SA, Brazil will get the Olympics and social unrest about wages and living conditions as well as Argentina and Venezuela. The big Brazilian oil company should go bankrupt, but it will probably get a bailout. I see mucho unrest in SA.
The leap year won't have an answer for Chinese imperialism in the South Seas as military spending like in the US will be the Communist Party answer to help their economy. Not the answer!
Climate change will receive lip service of reforms. Promises will never be kept. Laws should be passed to demand solar energy on any new structure four floors or higher. Car companies should be pushed into NGC or electric models. The idea of tax credits will only burden society with another taxing bureaucracy. Instead, the government should impose tariffs on solar imports and provide tax credits to help US industries get their footing. Money should be given to states that pass solar building requirements. This is how I would answer the question. Denmark should be praised and copied as a great model of alternative energy.
The Middle East has been a sore spot in the world since the beginning of time. Palestine should be recognized and helped along with Israel. The deal with Iran holds some hope, but these people have a different culture than the West. Their religion, Islam has a serious flaw. Take 10 Muslims. You will get 5 Sunni and 5 Shite, however you will get 10 different interpretations of their teaching and beliefs. The Jewish religion has the same situation, except if you differ with a Jew, at most, he will shun you. These Muslims will kill you and destroy your church if you aren't one of their followers. These people are like the Catholic Church back in the Middle Ages when money and power blinded leaders. These people are worse. They're fanatics and I personally don't want anything to do with them until they can understand this principle: live and let live. Nothing there lasts, especially peace. This is a sore spot in the world and nothing has changed through time. No one can change culture only peace and love can show the way, but all we'll get is guns and war. Sorry, I cannot offer a better view, but keep on with self-improving and believing in peace and love. Amen.
Wednesday, December 30, 2015
Why Are You Buying Stocks?
No, I'm not against the stock market, however the way to win is to buy low and sell high. This is my point of reference. The market is now priced high and to believe that new highs are on the horizon is ignoring danger signs between you and that far off distant level. At present, the percentages point down or to the correction ledger. Let me address my view on that this week and next week, I will post my much anticipated outlook: Forecast 2016.
Bull Market
We all realize that stocks have been in bull mode for seven years. The S & P 500 rose over 200% from March 2009 to December 2014. This year the market is flat!
It is not only flat but belies the truth of its value. The market corrected 10% in August, rebounded and now ranges between low and high resistance. The P/E ratio is over 21. Historically, it is moves between 12 and 15. Today's market is 35% to 40% over-priced by P/E ratios. Now, consider this aspect, earnings.
Earnings
was up less than 2% in 2014 and yet, stock prices rose double digits. This year, earnings were down and prices are still rising. Wall Street expect earnings to fall another 4.5% in the fourth quarter. Bottom line: earnings are lower, but the price that you pay is higher. This is a serious red flag.
Index
is skewed to favor certain companies which give a false reading on the market and economy. Five tech stocks are holding the market up (Amazon, Google, Netflix, Facebook and Microsoft)the rest of the market is down 5% and oil is down over 50%. By the way, AMZN has a P/E of 963. Suckers, beware!
The shills will keep pushing the market. Just like all the Fed knows is to print money, the shills keep barking to "buy the dips." My response to that is this, ever fall in a sand hole? No matter how hard you shovel on one side, the other side keeps refilling the hole. This dear reader, leaves you one question. No, not what is in your wallet, but what new product or innovation will cause a rally in our economy and stock market? blank____? Silence is the answer.
At this time the cycle of life and business cycle will be more influential than rate hikes, driverless cars, etc. The market is past its due date while prices are still getting higher. Take out your money and watch, wait and listen. Better days and opportunities will come, but not in the near-term.
Bull Market
We all realize that stocks have been in bull mode for seven years. The S & P 500 rose over 200% from March 2009 to December 2014. This year the market is flat!
It is not only flat but belies the truth of its value. The market corrected 10% in August, rebounded and now ranges between low and high resistance. The P/E ratio is over 21. Historically, it is moves between 12 and 15. Today's market is 35% to 40% over-priced by P/E ratios. Now, consider this aspect, earnings.
Earnings
was up less than 2% in 2014 and yet, stock prices rose double digits. This year, earnings were down and prices are still rising. Wall Street expect earnings to fall another 4.5% in the fourth quarter. Bottom line: earnings are lower, but the price that you pay is higher. This is a serious red flag.
Index
is skewed to favor certain companies which give a false reading on the market and economy. Five tech stocks are holding the market up (Amazon, Google, Netflix, Facebook and Microsoft)the rest of the market is down 5% and oil is down over 50%. By the way, AMZN has a P/E of 963. Suckers, beware!
The shills will keep pushing the market. Just like all the Fed knows is to print money, the shills keep barking to "buy the dips." My response to that is this, ever fall in a sand hole? No matter how hard you shovel on one side, the other side keeps refilling the hole. This dear reader, leaves you one question. No, not what is in your wallet, but what new product or innovation will cause a rally in our economy and stock market? blank____? Silence is the answer.
At this time the cycle of life and business cycle will be more influential than rate hikes, driverless cars, etc. The market is past its due date while prices are still getting higher. Take out your money and watch, wait and listen. Better days and opportunities will come, but not in the near-term.
Wednesday, December 23, 2015
Buget 2016: Banks Up, Citizens down
An agreement was reached last week and signed into law. The president claims it will provide the middle class a boost while securing our nation. It took me a week to read and I don't understand many aspects of it. Yet lawmakers, supposedly read it and vote on it in less than 24 hours. This is why I concluded my opinion on the parts that I could understand: Misleading info, favoritism and outright lies. It is why I advocate in my unpublished work that bills only contain and pertain to one point with no riders, which is exactly how Congress operates. These lawmakers will only vote for a bill if they can add one of their pet projects. BS!
The president got pre-school for four year olds and a continuation of a plan between business and schools to fill needs. The president goes on to say that this builds on the 750,000 new jobs his administration has fostered in manufacturing. He doesn't mention the continuing shrinking of our manufacturing sector by another million jobs. Politicians spin the truth and mislead the public.
Infrastructure
got funded and the president praises this budget. He fails to mention the money is a band-aid to repair roads and bridges, let alone developing a better transportation system in the air or at our ports. The Chinese lead with their pocket book. They are ready to open the new expanded Panama Canal. The president goes on saying that he closed loopholes to help pay for this aspect of the bill. He failed to mention any nor could I find exactly what loopholes were closed. By the way 65% of our roads are rated less than good condition.
Military
spending is up at $612 billion and yet, lawmakers grumble about social security which is paid for by funds from workers(our own money) that they used for past budgets and squandered many moons ago. Funny aspect pertaining to this budget. The military also collects revenues from other agencies within the budget. So, when the president mentions cyber-security, he really is requesting more money from Congress in another bill to pay for it. One would think that this falls under defense as a internet threat, but we would be wrong. Space and NASA is another example.
Immigration
remains the same, so illegals keep on coming. The president says that these people help American wages. Yeah, they lower them!
Sequestration!
The president wants to end it. Of course he does, it limits his spending. Speaking on one side of his mouth, he claims that he is responsible for lowering our deficit to less than 3% of GDP. However, his left-side brain does not speak that the sequestration was the means to lower spending to reach under 3% of GDP.
Big Business
got early Christmas presents. Producers no longer have to label meats from country of origin.
Banks got the CFTC to allow transactions on derivatives by only forcing one-side of the party to post collateral on deposits pertaining to the deal. This gives banks more leverage which is the cause of their weakness. Now, the banks will play "piggy-back" on derivative deals. You post a deposit this time and I'll post the deposit the next time, but if we connect the deals, it will be the same money used over-an-over again. My fellow Americans and dear readers, ain't that great! This will make the unwinding of institutions so much more difficult if another crisis comes and it will. In addition, Goldman Sacks paid another fine last week as well as many of the other big banks in the past year for various crimes like rigging the Libor Rate , but they never have to admit guilt. Dear reader, these are felonies and if you or I committed one, they throw away the key. I believe that after three strikes, a company should cease to exist and be liquidated if convicted of these type of crimes, but shills are appointed to agencies to monitor them. Sell-out!
Energy
big oil got the right to sell our oil abroad. Expect shortages in the future and of course, higher prices.
Money is allocated to States for Clean Power, but no one forces these same States to use it for that purpose. More money for nuclear with crumbs for alternative energy. Sell-out!
There are many categories like Flood Insurance which is money to people who live in nice homes along the water, but are too cheap to pay for their own insurance. Sell-out!
There is money for this lobbyists and that lobbyists like the $60 million for the "continuation" of the USDA headquarters or the $206 million for the Agriculture Research Service building renovations.
Finally, I would like to remind you what President Obama said in his second-term speech:
- "We cannot win the future with government of the past."
Yeah, who needs to listen to the constitution. It was written ages ago with old ideas. I guess that is why he circumvents Congress and passes his own laws with Executive Action.
There is appropriations for Wildfire, Climate Resilient Toolkit, Drought Resilience, Crop Insurance and other emergencies, but most of the money is wasted on bureaucratic agencies, although some good is achieved through these services.
Bottom Line:
Our fellow citizens got pre-school money and a few lucky citizens will be in the right state that partners with business for future jobs. As for the rest of us, consider this: this bill only covers nine months and it calls for spending of another $1.8 trillion. Yeah, we are now talking budgets of over a trillion per year with the military expanding while our manufacturing is declining. We continue to be policemen of the world, while at home our standard of living keeps falling. We are not even in the top ten of living environments. As for our leadership and future we ask this question, is there any difference between the Democrats and Republicans? None, at least that is how I see it. Bush was the worse spending president until Obama. Both claimed spending reductions as in ratio to GDP, but both misled the fact that the deficit only expanded during their administration. Our democracy is only a vote between the rich which is ironic. Ben Franklin feared the masses would vote themselves wealth which would destroy the ability for democracy to operate.
The president got pre-school for four year olds and a continuation of a plan between business and schools to fill needs. The president goes on to say that this builds on the 750,000 new jobs his administration has fostered in manufacturing. He doesn't mention the continuing shrinking of our manufacturing sector by another million jobs. Politicians spin the truth and mislead the public.
Infrastructure
got funded and the president praises this budget. He fails to mention the money is a band-aid to repair roads and bridges, let alone developing a better transportation system in the air or at our ports. The Chinese lead with their pocket book. They are ready to open the new expanded Panama Canal. The president goes on saying that he closed loopholes to help pay for this aspect of the bill. He failed to mention any nor could I find exactly what loopholes were closed. By the way 65% of our roads are rated less than good condition.
Military
spending is up at $612 billion and yet, lawmakers grumble about social security which is paid for by funds from workers(our own money) that they used for past budgets and squandered many moons ago. Funny aspect pertaining to this budget. The military also collects revenues from other agencies within the budget. So, when the president mentions cyber-security, he really is requesting more money from Congress in another bill to pay for it. One would think that this falls under defense as a internet threat, but we would be wrong. Space and NASA is another example.
Immigration
remains the same, so illegals keep on coming. The president says that these people help American wages. Yeah, they lower them!
Sequestration!
The president wants to end it. Of course he does, it limits his spending. Speaking on one side of his mouth, he claims that he is responsible for lowering our deficit to less than 3% of GDP. However, his left-side brain does not speak that the sequestration was the means to lower spending to reach under 3% of GDP.
Big Business
got early Christmas presents. Producers no longer have to label meats from country of origin.
Banks got the CFTC to allow transactions on derivatives by only forcing one-side of the party to post collateral on deposits pertaining to the deal. This gives banks more leverage which is the cause of their weakness. Now, the banks will play "piggy-back" on derivative deals. You post a deposit this time and I'll post the deposit the next time, but if we connect the deals, it will be the same money used over-an-over again. My fellow Americans and dear readers, ain't that great! This will make the unwinding of institutions so much more difficult if another crisis comes and it will. In addition, Goldman Sacks paid another fine last week as well as many of the other big banks in the past year for various crimes like rigging the Libor Rate , but they never have to admit guilt. Dear reader, these are felonies and if you or I committed one, they throw away the key. I believe that after three strikes, a company should cease to exist and be liquidated if convicted of these type of crimes, but shills are appointed to agencies to monitor them. Sell-out!
Energy
big oil got the right to sell our oil abroad. Expect shortages in the future and of course, higher prices.
Money is allocated to States for Clean Power, but no one forces these same States to use it for that purpose. More money for nuclear with crumbs for alternative energy. Sell-out!
There are many categories like Flood Insurance which is money to people who live in nice homes along the water, but are too cheap to pay for their own insurance. Sell-out!
There is money for this lobbyists and that lobbyists like the $60 million for the "continuation" of the USDA headquarters or the $206 million for the Agriculture Research Service building renovations.
Finally, I would like to remind you what President Obama said in his second-term speech:
- "We cannot win the future with government of the past."
Yeah, who needs to listen to the constitution. It was written ages ago with old ideas. I guess that is why he circumvents Congress and passes his own laws with Executive Action.
There is appropriations for Wildfire, Climate Resilient Toolkit, Drought Resilience, Crop Insurance and other emergencies, but most of the money is wasted on bureaucratic agencies, although some good is achieved through these services.
Bottom Line:
Our fellow citizens got pre-school money and a few lucky citizens will be in the right state that partners with business for future jobs. As for the rest of us, consider this: this bill only covers nine months and it calls for spending of another $1.8 trillion. Yeah, we are now talking budgets of over a trillion per year with the military expanding while our manufacturing is declining. We continue to be policemen of the world, while at home our standard of living keeps falling. We are not even in the top ten of living environments. As for our leadership and future we ask this question, is there any difference between the Democrats and Republicans? None, at least that is how I see it. Bush was the worse spending president until Obama. Both claimed spending reductions as in ratio to GDP, but both misled the fact that the deficit only expanded during their administration. Our democracy is only a vote between the rich which is ironic. Ben Franklin feared the masses would vote themselves wealth which would destroy the ability for democracy to operate.
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