The institute that declared the recession over in 2009 is full of hot air. They, like all the agencies and institutions only consider our corporate health. I say both individual and industry must breathe properly.
MEDIA
Will be a good investment this year with the elections and Olympics, but when considering individual situations, it speaks in generalities. The media will pound out more positive stories to set the public mood to develop confidence to prove that research group correct and people like me wrong. If you found work, I'm glad for you, but 14 million people will agree with me. If you have read my blog, my record speaks for itself and with that in perspective I will offer my outlook for 2012.
ELECTIONS
There will be elections in France, Russia,Venezuela and the big one in the U.S. Sadly, I think that all the incumbents will retain office. Putin, actually returns to office, but he was the power behind the president all along. Our nation has shown itself many times, most recently with the two month extension of jobless benefits and the social security tax break. Whether you agree with the new Tea Party members of Congress or not, my concern is where is their resolve? They have given up two times in a row. The first with the debt ceiling and now this. We have no leadership and the new people running always talk of change, but never do. On the other hand let Ron Paul lead the nomination process and the media gangs up on him like he is the devil in disguise(thanks Elvis). Our government owes more than it earns is the problem and it will get worse due to
BABY BOOMERS
who will be on the social security line to the tune of 4.3 million - EVERYDAY for the next 18 YEARS! This will also effect pensions and municipal bonds to which Meg Whitney may only be early with her warning.Transfer payments along with the deficit and lack of leadership will speak even louder next year. If our government were a business or individual, it would be bankrupt. I believe both political parties will speak about immigration late in the campaign. They do not really want to do anything except gather Hispanic votes. They will address all the issues in this manner, especially foreign policy and affairs, to which Iraq will be a problem along with the continuing war in Afghanistan. The way I see it our only hope is
Occupy Wall St, Arab Spring and
whatever new waves of protest forms in 2012. China keeps a lid on things at home, but they will have serious problems coming soon and of course, N.Korea has a new leader who has to pay homage to the military or he will be out. In either scenario it spells problems. All these movements are silent at the moment, but they will be back come this spring. In addition, the
WEATHER
will cause more problems. The temperature was hotter than the 1936 Dust Bowl. We had more tornadoes and severe flooding. If it continues, many global warming is a problem. In any event it will affect food to supplies to housing to which I see is in the last stage from the financial crisis. A large second wave of foreclosures will cause homes values to shrink yet again, however by early 2013 you better grab a house cheap because their will be a change in thinking. The price to replace a home will be way in excess for what is available on the market to which will begin the turn up in prices.
COAL and TRAINS
will be a great investment until CNG overtakes oil in transportation late in the decade. On the surface 2012 will be a copy of 2011, however a new revelation will take notice. We all are aware of the 1% domination, but inflation, joblessness and fear will stop the tech influence. At the moment there are more SmartPhones and IPads than people in our country and with the addition of Siri and near field communication apps, well, the buying will stop for the masses and there will be a tech-gap between the haves and have nots. The same thing happened to the music industry when kids stop buying records. Demographics will affect everything in our society. I also see
HACKING
with crime as a result. It will hit the smart phones, tablets and computers. Personally, I never understood the deal with texting. If you want to inform me, call me. Do not waste my time and money with foolish nonsense. I worry about the price of oil. Irregardless of what CPI says, oil is up and it has been around $100 all year and as a country we set a record for declining use, although the media never mentions it. It is down 6% yoy.
CNG - Long Term
By the end of this decade, compressed natural gas will be the consumer choice for transportation. It is cheaper and cleaner, but it takes time and the transition will be slow due to the lobbyists.
DERIVATIVES
are the time bomb that is running parallel to our national debt. To put this in perspective the total world GDP is $65 trillion and derivative action is in excess of $700 trillion. No one can cover a mistake and the Republicans have halted the Dobbs Finance Bill on derivatives until July 2012 which allows the UNEXPECTED to happen and "Black Swans"can happen. Bottom line: we are led by the rich who never do the right thing for the nation or its people. At the moment the dollar will regain its top spot with the Euro fear and as I stated, China has problems, however the resulting drop in gold will be your best chance to get something good out of all the chaos. Because in the end the love you take is equal to the love you make which is why I say,"END the FED!"
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