"Elevator...Going Down"

 - Fortitude is the marshal of thought, the armor of the will, and the fort of reason.

- Francis Bacon

When the market hit a new all-time high in the industrials two weeks ago, it took inner strength not to buy into it. Whenever the market dropped, those who bought the dip were bragging and smiling ear-to-ear. If you believed what you read at Evolution, your worries are fading. The industrials have dropped 1200 points on strong volume since hitting the high. The elevator is going down. The price action should plow through the gap at 40,000. The real test will be at 38,500. There are the usual indicators...

SMH

The semi's are in a downtrend. They led the market up and now, they squeeze into the elevator. Microsoft is already at the highs of its lows. Google broke below its August 5th low. That's the date to observe for market tests.

King $Dollar

It bounced strongly. The question is this just a bounce or return to highs? The first sign will be at 101.75. Just the possibility gave the bears belief and the loss of faith by the bulls. We see another strange occurrence in the T-bills.

Bonds

The 2-year note sits at 3.65% while the 10-year fell to 3.71%. Some people are jumping on bonds in anticipation of the Fed cutting rates. Dear Reader, you can do better. The 3-month note is at 5.05%. You can safely collect on that until the big picture is clearer.

Meanwhile...

We keep reading about the political candidates talking about the economy. Harris lies! Trump lies! The truth is the Federal Reserve keeps destroying the value of the dollar with money printing, the root cause of inflation. This is why we predict that the retail firm, Dollar Tree will soon change their name. They are adding higher price items on their shelves to increase revenues. They also closed 1300 stores to cut costs. Maybe they cannot scrape up the money for the name change? They worry about other things like payroll, paying venders and keeping the lights on. For the weekly list of firms that cannot afford to keep the lights on, we have...

Shake Shack = closing units and possible bankruptcy.                                                                            Rubio's Coastal Grill = Closing stores and laying off workers.                                                              Rue 21 = teen apparel. Closing all 540 branches.                                                                                    Sam Ash = music chain since 1924. Sadly, closing off 42 locations.                                                        Big Lots = they are experiencing the same worries as DollarTree.

Then, we read the jobs report that says 142,000 found employment. This caused the unemployment roll to tick down to 4.2%. This is definitely a lie. It will be reformatted quietly in another month. Folks, with our population over 340 million, it takes 150,000 new jobs just to stay even. Peace. Enjoy the NFL. The first two games were action packed. Go Niners!