Market Outlook: 2026

 News ----- News -------- News -------------- News -------------------- 

Dear Reader, as you know from our pieces, at times we refer to our unpublished book that we feel will help America, and possibly the world. You also realize that we do not clutter our page with ads. Money is a means and not a goal. We seek to make life better. With that said, our founder, John Lipareli has his first book published - to make a name for himself that could help get his political and economic work a reality. You can buy at Amazon Books. It is called, "The Legend of the Afghan Hound." It is general and family reading. Kids 9 to 15 will love it as well as pet lovers and history buffs. It is a sweeping saga that begins in ancient Egypt in a time of anxiety and war and ends in Bethlehem with hope and love. Adults will be attracted by the theme of "love in action." By that I mean the sacrifices that we make for each other. It is a Christmas classic and makes an excellent gift. Please, support his work. Thank you.    

Important Notes:

The government has always used the market when it is in a rally mode as a reflection of the current administration. The economy is good and that is why the market is up. We say this is over as the two are no longer aligned. Just like we informed you that our economy has been under a "stealth recession" since COVID-19. There has been no media recognition, but you know it is true because all of us struggle with the essentials: food, shelter and energy. Home ownership is unaffordable. Rents eat up to 50% of income. Who buys eggs? Oh yeah, the government does not include the three that you need every day in their phony inflation formula. Citizens are disenfranchised. We blame both political parties as they are both hypocrites.  

You can see this in this year's rally in the market as the true breaking point between the economy and market price. Retail or individual buying no longer moves the market. It is institutions, hedge funds, pensions and big buyers. Who else can afford the risk in the Magnificent -7? Their PE/ratio is off the charts not to mention their share price is very expensive. However, if you were able to buy some shares, you get taken for a wonderful ride that grows your dollars and gives you some economic breathing room. For the rest of us, if we time things correctly, like with our precious metals, we make a buck once in awhile. We include this Magnificent 7, but we prefer the actual, original movie.

Apple: Price last Friday was $278. It was $200 in August. Non-stop money in the bank.                            Amazon: Price was $229 last Friday. It was $165 in April.                                                                          Meta: Price closed at $673 last Friday. It was $480 last April.                                                                      Nvidia: Price was $90 last April and closed at $182 on Friday.                                                                    Google: Pric was $150 last April and $322 on Friday.                                                                                  Microsoft: Price was $350 last April and $483 on Friday.                                                                            Tesla: Price was $220 last April and even with the pullback was $455 last Friday. MONEY, MONEY, MONEY!!!!                                                                            

Recently, we have seen strong market pullbacks. The various points that we present from week to week are beginning to grab attention: layoffs, store closings, auto delinquencies and credit card debt. The ups and downs of the two wars are still not settled. Some of the big boys have noticed, but they have begun distribution. They are moving into AI, data centers and the infrastructure to supply the other two. They have a government that rewards them with tax breaks that fool the general public. Our debt is growing beyond our ability to repay it? They care less. They see the game as never ending. They see pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. The Fed "put" is back in their pocket. Their Christmas stocking is full of all their wishes. This market will rally into the new year. It will be some time in February when Christmas help is laid off that a new reality may see the light of day. As for now, the market and its price bears no reflection to your individual, economic struggles, the people of Ukraine or Gaza and whether you have a stocking and a wish sandwich. You know, you have two pieces of bread and you wish you had something to put in it.  Peace.

Santa Rally and the Market

News ----- News ------ News -------- News ----------- News ----------------

Dear Reader, as you know from our pieces, we refer to our unpublished book that we feel will help America, and possibly the world. You also realize that we do not clutter our page with ads. Money is a means and not a goal. We seek to make life better. With that said, our founder, John Lipareli has his first book published - to make a name for himself that could help get his political and economic work a reality. You can buy at Amazon Books. It is called, "The Legend of the Afghan Hound." It is general and family reading. Kids 9 to 15 will love it as well as pet lovers and history buffs. It is a sweeping saga that begins in ancient Egypt in a time of anxiety and war and ends in Bethlehem with hope and love. The story weaves the theme of "love in action." By that I mean the sacrifices that we make for each other. It is a Christmas classic and makes an excellent gift. Please support his work. Thank you.

- All things are connected.

- JFLs unpublished work, "The Evolution of Democracy: The Book of Multiple Ideas and Predictions."

Santa Claus Rally

This is a historical belief and has a trend to back the faith. The stats show that from 75% to 80% of the time, the market rises. What many do not know is the time period. It is not "before" Christmas, but the last five trading days of December and it includes the first two trading days of January. 

This time schedule overlaps another highly followed belief, the January Barometer. The time period of this thinking which many are convinced, calls for the entire first month in time. It mainly points to the S&P 500. If for the entire month, the index is up and ends positive, this says the entire year will be positive for trading. Conversely, if the trend is negative and ends downward, this says it will be a poor year for trading.

Fed Meeting  

The decision on the 10th of December will have a direct impact for the remaing month and the two hypothesis above. At present, the market believes a rate cut is coming. We already told you that people are jockeying for the chair title, including the present chairman who also wants to retain the job. We know President Trump changes his thinking from day-to-day. The decision and who voted which way will influence the president's choice. Powell's term ends on May 15th 2026.

Meanwhile...

We see King $Dollar staying strong as it bounces around .99 to 100. If there is a rate cut, it should fall. The first resistance is .98 and then, .96. The precious metals could attack its last high. They have also stayed strong despite a strong dollar. 

If you look closely at the market, there is distribution taken place. Many firms are falling sharply. The charts of Target (TGT), Costco (COST) and Comcast (CMCSA) are all scary. 

If you look at the economy, job losses are announced every week. The latest is Hewlett-Packard (HP) who are cutting 4,000 jobs. Then, we have internal problems with our utility sector. Data centers are eating electricity. This is raising the costs for energy in regions where new locations are being built or operating. Patrick Donnelly, a senior at the Institute of Engineering says, "Data centers are like the electrical needs of 10,000 homes." We say, "Peace."

 

Odds and Ends: November 2025

 News ----------News -----------News ------------News --------------News ------------------ 

Dear Reader, as you know from our pieces, we refer to our unpublished book that we feel will help America, and possibly the world. You also realize that we do not clutter our page with ads. Money is a means and not a goal. We seek to make life better. With that said, our founder, John Lipareli has his first book published - to make a name for himself that could help get his political and economic work published. You can buy at Amazon Books. It is called, "The Legend of the Afghan Hound." It is family reading and great for ages 9 to 15, pet lovers and history buffs. It is a sweeping saga that begins in ancient Egypt in a time of anxiety and war and ends in Bethlehem with hope and love. The story weaves a theme of love in action to which many times means sacrifice. It is a Christmas classic and makes an excellent gift. - Please support his work. Thank you.

- Faith is the antidote for fear. The anodyne for doubt.

- Clay Harrison

Much Ado About Nothing

Sadly, the two most important nations, the US and China sent no one to the COP30 in Brazil. Brazilian president, Lula tried to play the mediator between those two economies as well as others who produce oil and climate nations seeking a change to protect our world. The Brazil forest fund is a wonderful idea, but backing oil production at the same time reveals the conflict to change and to not hurt your economy. A fire in a connecting hall did not help with the mood. Good news. No one was hurt. 

We feel that the photo shoots were more for public image and appearances. They did however show that multilateralism continues through the challenges like the four year presidential cycle in the US, like China only using these summits as a vehicle to sell their wind and solar products. Brazil fell short with its forest/climate bond, but it did attract $6 billion. Credit was given to indigenous people who are stewards of land and forests. There was extensive talks about climate funding, but it was pushed back in the time horizon to 2035. Talks of roadmaps to end "fossil fuel" is just that, talk.

Bottom line: Climate plans remain to weak for real change. 

Meanwhile...

At the same time a G-20 meeting was taken place in Johannesburg, Africa. It had no effect other than tourists dollars for the host nation. 

In the US, Fed governor, Chris Waller continued his campaign to be the Fed Chair by calling for another rate cut. This is music to Trump's ear. King $Dollar is attempting to retake the crown that it has seen some obstacles lately to its 100 year duration. Gold and silver somehow have remained strong even with a stronger dollar. The market should rally for our national holiday with big money. They hope to persuade everyone that the Christmas rally is coming and forget the recent downturn. We see no volume in the upswing and that means no conviction.

We only wish everyone a pleasant Thanksgiving Day and peace. In addition, we add and request of you to say a prayer for the people in the Hong Kong skyscraper fire. Thank you.

Conflicted With Doubt

News ---------News -----News ------News -------News ------News!

Dear Reader, as you know in our pieces we referred to our unpublished work that we feel will help America and possibly the world. You also realize that we do not clutter our page with ads. We are not into money, but to try to help make life better. With that said, our founder, John Lipareli has his first book published, to make a name for himself that could help get his political and economic work published. You can buy at Amazon Books. It is called, "The Legend of the Afghan Hound." It is family reading and best for ages 9 to 15, pet lovers and history buffs. It is a sweeping saga that begins in ancient Egypt in a time of anxiety and war and ends in Bethlehem with hope and love. The story personifies love in action to which many times calls for sacrifice. Please support his work. Thank you.

- Keep your face toward the sunshine and shadows will fall behind you.

- Walt Whitman

Then and Now

If old Walt were living today, the sky would be overcast. How can you find a ray of sunshine when our two political parties lie about everything. The Democrats fought for the Obama credits for health care because they know ordinary people cannot afford it. The health care plan has a provision saying that if you do not have medical insurance, you are in violation. You can be fined and more. They keep that info out of the news.

The Republicans used the opportunity to cover reports that show over 1.1 million people this year lost their job. No government reports. Some news is news even with manipulation.

The Democrats said the Republicans were dishonest to hold the nation and its government in exile for the debt ceiling during the Biden administration, only to act the same way during this Republican administration. 

One day President Trump puts high tariffs on a nation, and the next, changes tune. The TACO president is a label that means "Trump Always Chickens Out." In any case, we, as citizens, cannot believe what either party says. Of course, we get clues. How about this one?

Scott Bissent...

...Secretary of the Teasury stated, "There are sectors of the economy that are in recession." It is a good thing that he does not work at Verizon. They dropped 15,000 workers. How about Wendy's? They are closing 300 outlets. If that makes you hungry, don't think Sizzler. Why, you ask? The location that you knew may be closed along with 599 other sites. You may decide to move or check out another city or region to find employment. Be careful! The government shutdown has effected air-traffic controlers.  Flying can be dangerous right now. The government or the transportation secretary had the good sense to cut flights in the busiest 40 airports. Of course, the Republicans used the opportunity to hand out $10,000 in bonus money to TSA airport help. Did they really work without pay? Yes, for the shutdown duration, but they knew once the government would re-open, they would be paid for all hours worked. This is BS! It is a phony feel-good story. All government had people fall into the same situation. 

Meanwhile...

Twenty banks cough up $20 billion to Oracle for data centers with the understanding that the loan will be repaid in 4-years. We, at Evolution don't think so? So, you think. You could drive? Maybe take a short cruise to clear your head before you make a decision? Well, good news. The cruise lines are offering big discounts. You can see the charts of RCL and CCL. The two have declined sharply. We read a report from Las Vegas that stated hotels had 90,000 vacant rooms during their busy season. 

Bottom line: All this info could leave you to be conflicted with doubt. We understand. We are your neighbors. Peace.

Climate and Other Problems.

- President Trump calls "Climate Change" a hoax. He believes if you look out the window, you will get     all the info that you need about the weather.

- Sebastian

JFL..

...believes that the environmentalst have overreacted. Even though he supports the Sierra Club, he does not agree with all their views. We need to cut trees to thin the threat of wildfires. Logging provides job. Trees lower the cost of housing, furniture and energy. It is renewable. In climate, setting a goal like alternative energy is a plus. A complete cutback on fossil fuel is stupid and disruptive to both society and a nation's economy. These zionists for climate need to study their Greek. A transition period is needed for change. With that said, Brazil hosts a summit that began on Monday for climate change.

COP 30

The French with their Paris Accord get a lot of credit. Europe has carried the ball. The Scandinavian countries stand out, especially in supporting funds for better technology in oil to capture CO2. Brazil deserves a lot of recognition for their bond that supports forests. We see positive results throughout the world like solar rooftops in Poland, electric vehicles in Asia, newer style nuclear reactors in China, solar farms in Columbia and SW America as well as Germany, a cold weather nation getting 15% of its energy from alternative sources. Congrats to all. With that said, we do not see any new pluses from the latest summit in Brazil. How can it? The two largest populations boycotted and the two largest economies also boycotted it. Neverthelees, we wish them well.

Meanwhile...

...for some unknown reason, King $Dollar is in an uptrend. We see resistance at $101, but the rise counters all common sense. The Federal Reserve is cutting rates which lowers the dollar's appeal. In addition, the Fed has quietly resumed QE. This increases our debt and basically, resumes the playbook cycle of debt and money printing. The BRICKS are still out there with there opposition to the dollar in global trading. Our government is not functioning and debt for the current year will add another $1.7 trillion to the already mind blowing $38 trillion on the books.The Shiller CAPE ration is at highs and he said that he sees a decline in the S&P 500 for the next ten years. He is not alone.

Economist EJ Antoni

Ever hear of him? He was once a shoe-in for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). His problem is that he has a conscience. He tells it like it is. He will not be appointed during President Trump's administration. He says, "Since 2022, the BLS has used flawed models which hides weakness in the economy." He believes concumers are "tapped out." He feels the Federal Reserve is caught between a rock and a hard place. They never reached their 2% inflation target and now, they have begun lowering rates. He adds, "The US government with all its overspending, is the root cause of our economic problems and a debt reckoning is coming." Ray Dalio, the billionaire investor agrees. And yet, the dollar is getting stronger. Go figure? Peace. 

While the Government Slept

- When the cat's away, the mice will play.

- Medieval Latin Proverb

Government Shutdown...

...is not new news, but life goes on. If one forgets the playbook of presidential administrations, it calls for the president to take a "trip" when bad news will hit the fan. President Trump left for Asia. He thinks that he is using the time to "play" the Chinese leader, Xi over trading and tariffs with rare earth minerals. Xi thinks he is "playing" Trump by forcing him into surrendering tariffs over rare earth access? Both leaders are seeking to offer their respective nations some good news to counter some poor economic reports. We can never for certain give an accurate picture of China. We do know that housing is central and the recent defaults are still reverberating. With that said, we can still give an accurate picture of our economy. It has been able to ride a bumpy road, but we see potholes and sinkholes ahead. Two big bumps in the road will be revealed today. The Supreme Court will decide the case of Trump's tariffs. We feel this issue is for Congress to decide. The other is the outcome from election day. Behind the scene is the real danger to everyone and the economy.

Cockroaches?

Do you recall our piece using the quote by Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan Chase? He said, "When you see one, there are more." The cockroach that he referred to was Tricolor Holdings. The used auto dealer filed for bankruptcy in September. It was soon joined by First Brands. The market shrugged it off. Then, we entered into the government shutdown over the debt ceiling. Reports on our economy are not forthcoming. What is known is sketchy. However, we do get reports from firms and of course, legal situations. One of those corporate reports was from Fiserv (FI). It highlights more banking risks. It missed its earnings by a lot. The firm's loftly projections fell way short. The stock plunged by 44%. It still has not found a bottom. The firm lost $30 billion in stock cap.

Enter Subprime!

If you remember, the financial crisis of 2008 began when subprime lenders were exposed and defaulted. We learned that big banks lend to these lenders and if a problem surfaces, they will feel a bite. If enough piranha's eat, the bite can be death. 

Subprime lenders deal with a large portion of our population with poor paying employment. Well, a large one, Primal Lend Capital Partners just filed for bankruotcy. Another report on auto loans reveals that there are $1.6 trillion in debt. That same report warned that auto delinquencies are rising to 6.43%. To put that in perspective, the failing to pay an auto loan has doubled since 2021 and it represents the highest percentage in decades. The repo man will be busy. You ask, "What's the worry?"

It is a slow burn, but it has a ripple effect. Not only in regions of our nation, but globally. As you know, our greedy producers have outsourced almost all our manufacturing. The supply chain has taken a hit with our tariffs. Now, with auto loans souring, lenders will tighten. This will mean less auto sales. This has a negative feeling to the industry. This relates to another report that says the average price for a new vehicle is $50,000. Since we import so much auto parts, these suppliers will feel the bite. They will do cost cutting or laying off help. At best, help everywhere will be less than full time. A bite to all economies. You throw in student loans. The bite to our economy grows. Now, throw in 42 million people who receive food stamps. They suffer as well as our grocery stores. Suddenly, our economy has an investation problem. The ripple is gaining force. It is becoming a wave. You say, "The government will reopen. The laid off federal workers and things like SNAP will be good again. Why worry?"

We Remind You...

...of another piece where a very conservative economist, Mark Zandi said, "Mass layoffs is the firewall between a recession and no recession." We add what we know...                                                                Amazon: laying off 14,000. Robots taking jobs.                                                                                          Target: cutting lose 1,000.                                                                                                                            Charter Communications: pink slip to 1,200.                                                                                          Paramount Skydance: good-bye to another 1,000.                                                                                  Novo Nordisk: a global medical concern will drop 9,000 - mostly Denmark and US.                            UPS: dropping 34,000 employees and another 14,000 corporate jobs that are going to robots.

Cargo

It moves by ships at sea and trains on land, however to reach warehouses and stores, it rolls by trucking. It is no secret that trucking is seeking drivers. There is a shortage of help as revealed by the aspect that there are 3.1 million more trucks sitting idle. You can get a lot of info from that sentence. Trucking firms have idle vehicles that they probably own with a loan. Big liability. We follow the results with the following trucking firms that extend from coast to coast. The following have all entered into bankruptcy. Best Choice Trucking LLC, Best Logistics Inc, C&C Freight Networks, ALA Transpotation Inc, Elite Carriers, Dolche Truckload Corp, Nortia Logistics Inc, CLB Trucking, and Daniel Trucking International. That is a lot of firms and lost jobs. The unemployment rate will be a lot higher.

We see...

...the unemployment percentage growing even with manipulation. We see our fellow consumers struggling to make ends meet. The stock market has lost its relationship to how our economy is doing. Individuals do not move the market. It is run by hedge firms and investment institutions. There is no longer a connection to the market and the economy. Our auto nation is driving over potholes and steering to avoid sinkholes as our phony political parties point fingers at each other. The only help wanted will be to be a repo man. Let's hope for a mild winter because running the heat also costs too much. Do the best that you can. Peace.                                                                                                                        

Odds and Ends: October 2025

-  Autumn, the year's last, loveliest smile.

- William Cullen Bryant

Next Season

We are not going to argue with Bryant about the seasons. We see His magistry in all four. We are using his quote as a timeline, metaphorically. 

We are not talking about winter per se, but the economic future and sadly, it resembles winter. The big money is all-in on AI. The only benefits the US citizen will see is higher utility bills, internet outages, general blackouts, loss of jobs and social mobility. The wealth gap will widen. 

Our politicians are finally revealing their true nature, power. What they do is to seek ways to make the other political party look bad with no true direction to help our citizens. As citizens, we are disenfranchised. We need a new political party to really put America first. We, at Evolution have suggested the Liberty Party. JFL's unpublished book will lay out the cause and platform. Meanwhile, we suffer the fools. 

China's Vision and Ours

Last year, China made $120 billion in new clean energy. The US made $80 billion in oil. Chinese technology dominates alternative energy that generate profits and a growing middle-class. In fact, they have more middle-class (around 700 million) than we have in population. Do you recall a recent piece where we reported that China sold more EVs in the last quarter than the US had in all vehicles for the entire year? When you put the two together, who has the better future picture?

Home Ownership

This is central to the American Dream. Well, every year we make less homes than are needed. The demand is great, but affordability is poor. The good news is home ownership has remained steady at around 65%. The bad news is forecloures are rising, again. In this environment, home builders show a worried picture. Lennar (LEN) was $175 last December. It had momentum with the hope of interest rate cuts. It is down 50 points as of last Friday. We do get a slightly different picture with DR Horton (DHI). It was also $175 last December. It fell to $115 this year only to rally and then retraced. However, it revealed a Cup and Handle pattern which is very bullish. The price last Friday was $150. Its price action could reveal where housing and our economy is headed. Also, on the plus side, new home construction rose 4%. If rates continue to fall, this will be a boost to the economy. People with higher rates can refinance. This could stop the foreclosures. More people can enter into home ownership. Because housing effects so many aspects within the economy, a boom will occur.  With that said,, we read a disturbing report on our economy. 

Disaster Economy

A report shows that over one third of our economic growth is tied to severe storms, fires and nature problems. The figure is 36% of GDP or around $7 trillion. The growth comes from restoration in recovery from or preparing for disasters. We now have records connected to storms and fires. The US had more than $101 billion in losses just in the first half of 2025 and yes, this is a new record. Our economy has escaped a recession from two factors, disasters and AI. You don't need artificial intelligence to tell you that our nation has deep, economic problems. We need to drastically reduce our importing and return to being self-sufficient. A beautiful by-product of being self-sufficient is less debt and a higher standard of living. The only real growth that our two political parties give us is in our national debt to which just surpassed $38 trillion. If we do not change, the next info will be a our daily news. The economic body bags, the razor cuts to our lives and standard of living.

Long John's Silver: closing 150 locations.                                                                                                Nestle: cutting 16,000 jobs from its global workforce.                                                                                Coors: cutting 9% of its help.                                                                                                                      Walgreens: closing 79 stores.                                                                                                                        Starbucks: cutting 9,000 jobs and closing stores.                                                                                        Meta: cutting 600 AI jobs. These are high quality and with the money going into AI, quite confusing?    Target: is dropping 1,000 corporate employees.                                                                                          Amazon: The king of internet retail is laying off 14,000. Why, you ask? Robots taking over!                    UPS: laying off thousands. Why, you ask? See above with Amazon. Robots taking over!

We see the above when we visit our malls, that is if you still have one? Even with the above info, King Dollar remains fairly strong and that is with a 95% of an interest rate cut, later today. We feel that maybe some manipulation is afoot? 

Good News

A dutch firm, Mammoet is shooting to displace Taisun with the strongest crane that you can buy. You have to hand it over to the small nation that achieves so much. Sadly, the US that faces two oceans and the gulf waters lacks even a contender in this most important aspect to ports.

Down, but not out. The great US engineering school, MIT has developed a new way to clean air dust off of solar panels. President Trump may not like alternative energy, but solar isn't going away. MIT's process will extend the life and efficiency of panels and it requires less water. Bravo, MIT!

The best for last. The Nobel Prize for chemistry was won by an American professor, Omar Yaghi. His technology is going commercial. It can retrive water from the atmosphere. This could turn arid locations into farmland. This will lower food costs and lessen food insecurity. I thank God for blessing him and us. Peace.