- It's the darkest before the dawn
- Thomas Fuller
Tariffs In, Tariffs Out
President Trump's unusual technique for negotiating was on full display last week. "Liberation Day" lasted 24-hours. He changed tune to extend tariffs from being enacted for another 90-days except for China. He added their export bill by increasing the tab to 124% on all merchandise. In some instances, the tariff reaches 145%. Then, on Saturday, he exempted Chinese exports of cell phones, computers and chips from tariffs. Then, we hear reprieve is temporary? Will we hear the Mama's and Papa's sing come Monday morning?
We stated last week that the market will act with uncertainty. It is up wildly one day only to crash the next. We were right. We are also correct in saying that we have been in a stealth recession since 2022. No one else agrees only you.You see it in the cost of home ownership or in a rental lease. You see it in the items that you want to buy like eggs. You see it in all of your insurance bills from home to auto to health. By the way, water is next. It is no wonder that we do not place trust in the media "experts."
We Suggested
That Trump needs a plan and works the plan. That plan should recognize that our debt problem is a result of importing everything from everywhere for over 50-years. You cannot change things overnight. PICK a TARGET! Work with Congress to protect that industry with the outlook of adding new fields after the first target is fully grounded. The plan may not be finished during your administration, but everyone will know and realize that you put us back on the right path. Now, the market...
Three Signs of a Bear Market
Keep in mind that the market is always biased to be bullish. You saw the whiplash last week to the upside after big down days. The bulls look for Trump to soften the tariffs. They also believe that the Fed will lower interest rates. This is their meme for a higher market. It is the status quo that is always protected. We see a possible bull flag that is extremely bullish forming, but it is too early to be sure.
On the flipside, the volume on down days is greater than the juice upward. The bear call pennant proved to be the right call. The price level is a long ways from the top. Down is the trend until something changes. However, volume in general is very high for both market directions. Uncertainty.
The bears find courage in market breadth. It is turning down. The bears also have Dow Theory on their side. All the indexes are going in the same direction, down. Harmony in the lower keys is a trademark of the Mama's and Papa's. Peace.
