Sunday, June 9, 2013

Conundrum Time!...L&C

I didn't go to a Ivy League school, but that does not mean that those students get special knowledge. I read the same info as they do. They may express themselves in terms like the title piece, whereas I use street terms like stuck between a rock and a hard place to describe a similar situation. The one difference that I do make to note is this: I will take a stand as to what the info is telling me as opposed to the clinging plant that will hem and har as to what it all means.
Greek Myth
expresses it like this: the choice is Scylla or Charybdis? Wall St. likes Hobson's Choice:take it or leave it. What do all these different expressions with identical conclusions mean? Volatility in the stock market.
Trader's Paradise
this is one of the few times that the individual can make money from trading in the stock market. It almost makes me wanna sing:Celebration Time, Come on! Let's celebrate good times...
Let me back-track for one moment. Individuals do not move the market. Institutions do. For example, take gold. It is definitely in a down trend. Why? Because big money and the dollar are against it. While at the same time, the buying by individuals has never been higher. Our demand cannot match big monies fire power. Recently, when gold declined from over $1600 per ounce to $1200 price range, it was because $24billion was set against it. We don't have that kind of influence. Don't fret. When the smoke clears, gold will show its luster. The point of this is simple, the market has declined in two out of the last three weeks. It is singing MEATLOAF.
builders have run up with housing prices and activity, however interest rates jumped to over 4% and that makes housing less affordable which translates into a lower stock price for builders. Study charts. Find the recent highs and lows. Sell short when prices approach their highs. You can do this with almost all sectors, but I would avoid commodities as too little truth in media info as to their true direction. Also, prices in these categories are set to move in a breakout, but up or down is anybodies guess. If you look at a monthly chart of oil, it is reaching a triangle confluence point, and it will break, very soon. This break will tell you the true strength of the economy and thus, it will point to either a short or buy sectors.
Summer Camp
As stated in my last article, I am in the bear camp, however Jeremy Siegel says the Dow will hit 17,000. He is not alone as almost all hedge funds jump on the Bernanke Put. They may not know COOL & THE GANG, but the tune has been playing in their elevator since 2009. When these people increase share prices, we can take their money for a change. Afterall, there are some people who want to end the dollar because it is too expensive. They want a dollar coin or change. Get it?
My camp has Porter Sansberry, Michael Lombardi, and Harry Dent as counselors. We listen to all types of music and we allow for individual choices, but we all agree that we will beat the other side when we meet in the August competitions to end the summer season.
Liars and Crooks:This week goes to the self serving bureaucracies, specifically, the EPA and DOT. The ideas behind the thinking to form these agencies is all well and good except that once formed they become a political tool and lose their effectiveness. GM has a car called, SAIL. This vehicle cost less than $10K and it gets over 42 miles-per-gallon, however it will not be sold in the US due to the above agency rules. Keep in mind that before these zealots took control this car would pass muster with our environment, safety and mileage along with auto jobs. It would add in the positive, but then again, bureaucracy must be served. This needs to be changed and as always, End the Fed!