The latest consumer report confirms what Sebastian has been saying for the last six months, the US consumer no longer has the means to keep buying. So, how is our economy going to grow?
Our consumer economy is slowly becoming a thing of the past. There are many signs. If you connect the various streams of evidence, you can readily understand Sebastian's outlook. Personally, I feel this is for the better, but the cause is not the root that I would like to see.
I Like
the fact that US consumer are finally saving for a rainy day. Maybe their defense mechanism kicked-in when the word got out about the 800,000 furloughed federal workers. These guys generally make middle-class wagers and they were crying the blues by just missing one paycheck. Anyway, consumer saving was up 7.6% since December 2018. This is a turn for the better. Buy real sales, not by impulse.
Same old same old
Lenders keep pushing out credit cards. There are over 430 million cards out there. The average borrower carries a running debt of $5,736. Cards in circulation are up 13% since 2015. Now, consider this survey on Americans using credit cards. Sadly, 40 million say that they expect to miss at least one monthly payment. This translates that 40 m are making the minimum payment. This also means that a $5,000 balance will end up costing the consumer, $6,372. Not good. It gets worse.
Millennials
are not buying starter homes. They are living with their parents longer than any generation. It is not all their fault. The continual depreciation of the purchasing power of the dollar has caused home prices to increase 24% over the last five years while wages are only up 8%. You can put the blame on the government and the military budget which also keeps rising with no comparative increase in wages. In a country of over 300 million, we are barely selling a million new homes a year. How about this mind blowing fact? We sold more home in 1950 with half the population than we sell in the present market. By the way, that figure includes all size homes. Just through natural growth, our population increases 150,000 every month. So, those job growth figures are miss leading also. Anything under 150K is actually revealing a declining economy. Keep in mind, so goes housing, so goes our economy.
Latest Report on Consumer Debt
Here is the most recent breakdown of US consumer debt. It is why I suggest that people are tapped out. Even if we are in transition from a consumer economy and back to a balanced consumer, there is little wiggle room to maintain buying by the consumer.
*Home loans: our mortgage debt is $9.4 trillion.
*Student loans: Kids owe $1.36 billion.
*Auto loans: The average selling vehicle is $33,000 and loans total $1.27 billion.
*Credit Cards: Are you sitting? $834 billion...and rising.
*Personal loans: Using the louse like an ATM. $291 billion.
*Retail Credit: This will eventually go on the personal credit card. More debt of $96 billion.
Out total dent is almost as large as our entire economy.
Total consumer debt= $13.3 trillion
Total GDP = $18 trillion.
Last, but not least - Store Closings
By the last announcement there are 4,810 establishments that are no longer in operation. Multiply that number by the amount of employees and one realizes that the unemployment figures are a sham. Here is a figure that they cannot manipulate. Job layoffs are up 35% in the first quarter. Our consumer can no longer sustain a consumer economy and Congress should wake up and tax the internet to give retail a fighting chance. In addition, our economy can no longer absorb low wage immigration. If this keeps up, sadly we will have civil unrest. This is not anti-immigration. It is reality. At times we can absorb and assimilate and at times we cannot. This is one of those times.
