Last week the data on unemployment claims and the governments report on the percentage of the unemployed were in direct conflict. I have been keeping a tab for the last six weeks on the tally by states. It does not jive with the Bureau of Labor Stats (BLS). One of the differences can be explained by the way and who are counted by the government. What we have here is the other side of the "Prodigal Son" story. In this version the father kicks out the son with the words to mother, "He is now, somebody else's problem." Dear Reader, when you apply for unemployment benefits, you only receive them for around six months. In deep recessions like this pandemic, states will extend the dole for three months. Do the math! This recession started in March. One begins collecting, if that person was fortunate to get through to apply, by April. The six month period has ended. The extension is over or ends this month. Another report reveals 12 million Americans will lose their benefits on the 26 of December. Do you know what happens then? These people are no longer counted in the unemployment figures, "They are somebody else's problem." This drives down the unemployment figure. Wall Street knows this, but they live in a world where they just wait for stimulus to keep the market bouncing higher. They forget that if no one has any money, stuff just sits on the shelf. Then, the store closes. This is what is happening, stimulus or no stimulus. Oh yeah, the government does not count self-employed people, ever! If you want a true picture on how deceitful the government unemployment numbers are, I suggest that you search for the great comedy team of Abbot and Costello. As a Christmas present, I will transcribe their routine. It is very funny and so true, it is scary. By the way it was done in the 1930s and it is still accurate. By the way, the government reported that unemployment fell to...
6.7%.
The BLS admits that it presents a "brighter" picture of the economy by using calculated surveys and rules that are in place. The above percentage equates to 154.9 million people in the labor force out of a population of 330 million. This is their picture. Here, at Evolution we tallied a different number with a bleaker outlook.
Six Weeks Ago...
the states tally for unemployment claims was 892,000. The week after that another 837K filed. The data on new jobs for the same week was 661K were filled. My old school math says 231K more people were unemployed than jobs created. The government reported that unemployment fell to 7.9%. On 12 November, the unemployment numbers showed another 709K filed. In the same week, Standard and Poor's released a report that predicted 12.5 % of US companies will default. This equates to $200 billion. The following week another 820K filed claims. The month ended with another 778K new claims on the 25th of November.
On the 4th of December another 712K filed new claims and 245K new jobs filled. To the thinking of the Economic Evangelist, the total comes to 4,685,000 claims just in the past six weeks. We all know that there was not 5 million new jobs created. Can you see my point about the BLS stats and our government in general?
Other Worries...Hard Winter
The virus second wave is doing damage that cannot be cured by a vaccine. We found that 17 million are behind in either rent or mortgage. In the next two months, 5.6 million could and most probably, will be evicted. The moratorium on evictions ends on the 31st of December. Owners of those properties are also falling behind in their payments. This is the disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. One can get a clearer picture by looking at the last poverty release by the BLS in 2019. The report showed that 34 million or 10.5% of the population was below the poverty line. I think this figure will double for 2020. I get my calculations from seeing extended lines at food banks across the nation and the total number of people collecting food stamps or SNAPS as it is now called. Currently, there are 43 million on the rolls...and rising. My math says this is over 13%. By combing the claims filed and people collecting food stamps, I equate the unemployment figure to be 20%. Ouch! No wait! Double ouch!!
2cd. Opinion?
The people at Bank of America agree with me that the BLS numbers on unemployment are way too low. They do not give their projection. Then, there is this study by Sensormatic Solutions. They show that there are approximately 110,000 stores in the US. By the end of the first quarter in 2021, they see 25,000 will close their doors. There are about 1,100 malls in the nation. They say that half will be gone by the end of 2021. So far, foot traffic is down by 41% in malls during this shopping season.
How can you shop in any of the following cities to which reflect severe unemployment and poverty rates? This is a small list of locations under poverty duress.
*Reading, Pa. = 31.4%, Jackson, Miss. = 24.4%, Fresno, Ca.= 33.2%, Flint, Mi.= 33.6%, Albany, Ga.=38.2%, Springfield, Ma.= 27.4%, Toledo, Oh.= 29%, Buffalo, N.Y.= 23.4%, Las Cruces, N.Mex.=25.8%, Muncie, Id.= 29.5%, Banger, Maine = 19.8%, Monroe, La. = 34.6%, Cape Girardeau, Missouri = 27.8% and Springfield, Ill. = 23.8%.
With scary numbers like those that are rising and spreading, we need a government that starts to protect American workers and not one that grumbles about government positions based on diversity. Our founders wrote it into the constitution, "Promote the general welfare..." I say, "Start promoting!" Peace.
