- If you want it, here it is, come and get it... ...Did I hear you say that there must be a catch? Will you walk away from a fool and his money?
- Badfinger
BT Barnum...
I could have easily started off with one of his quotes, but the changing demograpghics and a weaker education system suggests something within a generation. Generation Z condescends the rest of us as they believe that teck gives them an advantage. They are right about the teck aspect, but wrong about everything else.
Bitcoin...
is something that we have been against since it started. We believe the "limited" printed aspect and out of government control are points that are overblown. All these founders are doing is replacing the banking industry that works with fiat money to their "chip" money for them to which is also fiat. It is just plastic as opposed to paper. How about the limited print point? It is probably a lie. Consider, I start a bitcoin. I put no money into the pot. I just set a price of $100 each. When the money comes rolling into the account, I create a few chips in my account. I get rich on fools investment. Even if I'm wrong about that point, the founder is still free to use the account in any form or investment that they seem to like - FTX answers the example. The next thing you know, the coin-chips are worth less and then, maybe zero? A fool and his money...
Meanwhile...
The market is in rally mode. We told you that the falling dollar is the reason. Consider the price action of King Dollar. In 2022, it reached a higher value every month until October. Now, it is retracing. To Where You Ask? That is the 64,000 question. Excuse me (demographics) that is the $2-billion power ball mystery. We see a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. This will go back to the last breakout level at 105. Then, the market will probably go sideways until earnings are revealed to which leads us to say...We are
In Recession
You and the government might feel otherwise, but here is what we see. The IMF stated that one-third of the global community is already in recession. The UK is at the door and it is open. Every day the news has reports of falling funds like Cathie Woods, FTX and bankruptcies. We hear about teck laying off people by the thousands from Twitter, Alphabet, Meta and 700 more firms. The government reported that inflation for October "fell" to 7.7%. Well, Gen Z, at 7%, you can double your money in 10-years. You do not need to risk it in the market. A government bond like the I-Bond will give safety and the return. We already told you that we are in the worst economic environment, stagflation. Earnings will be less if for no other reason, the strong dollar. Just use this rally to make small trades with a stop. Walk away from any long-term action. The market has not tested its bottom.
One last thought on the present inflation danger. If inflation becomes persistent, the same positives aspects for investing in a bond becomes a consumer nightmare. Consumer prices will double in ten years if this level of inflation continues. I can't even fantom gasoline at $8 bucks or housing doubling from the present levels. There is no such thing as "easy money." Low interest rates hide the structural problems in our economy and that is what needs to be addressed.
Finally...
Did I hear someone say, Yay! Wise guy. We believe what Franklin and Jefferson believe. We trust gold. You cannot print gold. It takes millions and more millions to develop a mine. You have to find a location. You have to get permits. You need special equipment and since the locations are in far off locations, you have to provide the infrastructure. Then, it takes tons and tons of dirt just to get one ounce. Gold is undervalued. Our founders put it into the constitution. The Federal Reserve violates our constitution which is one of the many reasons that both of our political parties are corrupt. They allow the Fed to exist and control our currency. Thank God that our system allows us to change it. We need to revert back from fiat (fake) to gold (real). It helped to make our country great: Free market, free people with a stable currency and seek to be self-sufficient in as many areas as we can. Peace.
