I was going to open with the latest market manoeuvres, but I was caught and captivated by the call-out speech of Senator Schumer of New York. He displayed great political courage and his views are worthy of being in JFKs classic work, Profiles in Courage.
He is Jewish and the leading American in politics with that faith. He will be attacked by radical Zionists, but he is not only correct in our view, but noble for standing up to the prime minister of Israel, Netanyahu about the way that he conducts the present war in the Middle East and stating that he would never recognize Palestine to be a nation. We stated in earlier pieces that there will never be peace with this man. Schumer even called for the citizens of Israel to vote him out of office. Bravo!
Market
Whenever you talk about the market, you need to lead with the big dogs. Even though the industrials hit a new all-time high, the transports have not come along to show a true bull market. Microsoft (MSFT) has been in an uptrend since last October. Amazon's (AMZN) chart looks similar. However, Google (GOOG) has been in a sideways pattern. Tesla (TSLA) has been in a downtrend since last July. Apple (AAPL) has declined since last December. Dropping the AI in cars leaves a lot of doubt for the market and investors. Bottom line: A mixed bag of results.
Commodities
Led by gold, copper and oil have all seen either breaking out or approaching new highs. If you think about this price action, you will realize what we have stated all along, inflation is not going away. We could experience a second wave of inflation. This will put pressure on the dollar. We always remind you to watch King $Dollar. It had a bounce last week, but failed to reach the 103.5 level which is the confluence point.
Oil
It is the most important commodity. Of course, you could argue that you can't eat oil and food is number one. Food, by the way, has disharmony in pricing. Potash is down. Stables are sideways. Anyway, both US crude and Brent are in an uptrend since last December on good volume. Oil needs to break $84 to show conviction.
Copper
The good doctor has been on vacation since March 2022. At that time it hit a high, but immediately declined. It basically was in consolidation since July 2022. It broke out of that range last week. It can prove itself by piercing $4.40. Electric cars need copper and since the AMA keeps a lid on new medical schools, supply issues will come into play. (Forgive that play on words, but we feel that more medical schools are needed. We need real doctors!) Dr. Copper is just a nickname for the metal.
Gold
We saved the best for last. If you look at a monthly chart of gold since 2011, you will see a cup and handle pattern that got completed in 2022. This is very bullish. Gold broke out last week. It hit a new all-time high. It has solid support at $2000. With Fibonacci we project gold to reach $2550 with the possibility of $2668. YAY!
No Change
The Fed will announce their policy later today. We expect no change with a hint for a future change. We never place any faith in this corrupt cabal.
With that news, I hope that you had a nice St. Patrick's Day, enjoying a holy Ramadan and for others, getting ready for Passover and Easter. Peace.
