Wednesday, October 4, 2017

Remix at WH and Market

If one were to step back and look at the recent doings at the White House and the stock market, the results would differ from the accepted reality. In this perspective that word "reality" is central to the findings.
President Trump finally offered his much anticipated tax overhaul plan. From my early view of it, in the long term, it will put the US national deficit to a point where it can never be repaid to which a collapse is certain for our economy, our dollar and government. In the short term it offers a chance to revitalize our domestic manufacturing industries. This will help the middle class and social mobility. This is good. However, the real tax relief is going to the rich under the same old same old BS that this will spur investment. Yeah, the third house far enough away from any possible nuclear catastrophe that the war drums are indicating. It will spur yacht building and sales for the rich to escape(see previous reason). I should include the private jets along with fly-in communities.
In weighing the plus and minus of the tax plan, I'm not for the individual tax allocations, but I do like the business side of the plan. We need physical manufacturing plants here in the US that offer living wages and future social mobility. As for individual tax brackets, I would close all high end loopholes beginning with our homeownership interest deduction. I'd cap the mortgage deduction at one million. This will raise revenues and end the escalating home price spiral. Someone is building a home in LA that will cost one half billion dollars. This is just a $500 million tax loophole. See what I mean? I would increase the top bracket to 50%. It is about time that the wealthy pay their fair share. I would demand a balanced budget and include a category to pay down the national debt, but that is just me and those ideas are a long way from reality.
We are back to that word. President Trump seems to act like he still is on a TV reality show. In his old show, he fired someone. In the White House he has the same policy. He has asked someone to step down or he has fired a cabinet member nine times. This works out to one a month, but it has not helped his ratings. They are down and falling which is the opposite from the buzz about all the new changes to Washington from the outsider. The president complains that he cannot get someone to do what he wants which is why he switched teams to work with Democrats in the debt ceiling deal. Yeah, give a politician an open check book to spend like the guy he just fired as the agricultural secretary who spent $476,000 on travel expenses. This is like an episode of American Greed. If we don't get a third political party for our nation, things are looking very, very bad.
Stock Market
has the same buzz as the WH and it too, is misleading. The market was spurred by the Fed and low interest rates after the financial crisis. Tech led the way. If one follows Dow Theory, it is in harmony. The Dow and the Transports are at record highs. Even the once hard pressed Baltic Dry Shipping Index is in an uptrend. Leadership however, is no longer techs. This will take many by surprise. If you have a tech mutual fund or wealthy enough to be in a hedge fund, your next statement will upset your morning coffee. At present, the financials and energy are helping the market. This won't last. It is based on expectation. Financial expect the Fed to raise rates which helps them. Won't happen. Energy had multiple pluses from OPEC cutbacks to hurricanes. Won't last. In addition, the specter of electric cars is changing the landscape. Finally, let's take a closer look at tech and why so many will see red with their morning coffee.
AAPL: anyone who purchased shares since early August is in a losing position. Dear reader, if we buy our hundred shares, we would be down one grand. Your mutual fund or hedge fund buys by the million. They will be down ten million or more.
AMZN: anyone who purchased shares since mid-July is in a losing position. Your mutual fund or hedge fund is down over $114 million.
GOOG: anyone who purchased shares from the end of July is in a losing position. Your mutual fund or hedge fund is down $31 million.
The other big three, NFLX, MSFT and FB are threading water and they all have gaps which love to be closed.
In addition, NASDAQ itself is deceiving. It is at record highs. Of all the different companies listed, 40% are trading below their 200-day moving average and most are in a bear market.
Together, this all indicates a market that is ready for a correction. I would time it to the cabinet member who cannot get Trump's tax plan through Congress. When he steps down, the market will use the elevator in the same direction.