As time moves along, we sit closer to 2021 than 2019. No one saw what we face today. We have a president that is turning to the playbook of Tricky Dickie. It calls on fear with the meme of law and order. If you recall your history, Hitler used the same formula in Germany. The Democrats are going with the idea to buy votes. They are targeting segments in society that they need to win in swing states. Biden has offered plans for manufacturing. Suddenly, this outsourcing candidate (NAFTA) is saying that we need to protect jobs and create quality work - a living wage. He also seeks to grab progressive votes, (Bernie Sanders) following with government handouts. This appeals to millennials. Soon, he will offer something for senior citizens. Dear Reader, he will probably win. We can only hope that he has no convictions like Obama because the country is close to bankruptcy. By the way, he is using the playbook that Ben Franklin feared, "...democracy allows citizens to vote themselves benefits...the nation will suffer from that point."
Fear Factor...
is not only rising, it is becoming ingrained. President Trump may or may not know that he is laying the grounds for totalitarianism. He has an obligation to protect, but it is a fine line to play politics by using federal troops or officers in military gear to stop civil unrest. It has been used many times by past presidents and history shows this is a status quo position. It is anti-democratic. It is not good. Today, it shows especially bad when the local government leaders do not want their presence in their zone of influence. This is more than state rights versus federal government. If he keeps doing this, a future dictator/president could emerge. The economics of our present dilemma is bad enough, but excessive police force is only one step away from fascism.
The size of these military style officers is also dangerous. Currently, there are over 800,000 of these personal. If I was the mayor in Portland, this is what I would do. Have citizens walk in areas that these officers congregate. If they are not allowed to walk and pass peacefully on city streets, have your local police officers arrest them as a violation of peaceful assembly. If they resist. So be it. It is better to face an early disease than to let it foster and grow.
P.S. The same thinking should have been the approach to the virus.
Fear is spreading...
In South America the fear factor is also growing. The president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, has some serious issues with democracy. Brazil is by far the biggest economic and populous nation in SA. Before this man became president, he has said some scary thoughts. In 1997 as a member of their Congress, he backed a new drug by a medical firm. When asked if it worked, he said, "I don't know. I'm a military man. My skill is to kill." Later, in 1999 when he got upset with the government, he said, :Let's end Congress! Go straight to dictatorship!" He has been infected by the virus and yet, he still does not mandate using a mask. His country leads SA in infections. It is third in the world with deaths. My feeling on masks is this. I do not like them, but in consideration of my fellow citizen, I will wear one. I would like my neighbor to show the same consideration to me and any establishment that they enter. We need this sickness to pass because it will allow more governments excuses to by-pass democracy. This is happening in Peru and Ecuador. The two nations will suspend elections due to the virus. Sadly, others will follow.
Fear: Maybe even the Gods...
In ancient times, even more complex societies like Greece, if the heavens displayed unusual signs, the leaders would someone who had spiritual depth. This person would translate the sign - an oracle. No, not the Oracle of Omaha. Anyway, last week we were told that the coronavirus was spreading again. Then, on the news, it mentioned that a comet would be visible in the sky. The Neowise or Panstarrs Comet would be appearing at dusk in the northwest. I looked for it. The third day was the charm. It was quite beautiful with its reflection with the setting sun. The next day the news contained another fearful note. In a Colorado town, people began seeing dead squirrels. An investigation resulted. The findings revealed....please be seated...bubonic plague!
How the hell could squirrels in a clean, Colorado town, suddenly contract this deadly disease?
More signs...The US had a hurricane hit two states on the same day!
If I was explaining the oracle of the comet with all the bad medical news, and weird signs, it would not be what some ancient king would want to hear. So, I'll just say, the sight of the comet with the setting sun, was a rare and beautiful experience.
P.S. Fleas were the carriers to rats for the spread of the plague in Europe. My suggestion to all pet owners. Give flea protection to your pets, just in case. By the way, fleas are terrible in the South, especially in Florida.
Pay the owner!
Speaking of the Greeks, there is this: An ancient Greek Orthodox Cathedral in Istanbul. It has been a museum for centuries. Why, you ask? To answer, consider this recent point of contention. The Nazi's stole many things from wealthy Jewish families, including art. Lawyers have tracked the pieces and courts have ruled to return the items to descendants of those families. This is right. And if that is right, why should Muslims occupy a church that belonged to the Greek Orthodox Church which is basically a Catholic Church. It was used as a museum so not to inflame old feelings. If the Hagia Sophia is now being used as a mosque, the members should reimburse the Greek Orthodox for the value of the old church taken by force in 1453. Of course, this action would setoff a world litigation rampage. How far back is relevant? The Native Americans claim? The S. American tribes claim? The Palestine claim? On and on, it could go as an endless nightmare. A nice gesture by the Muslim mosque members would be fitting and ease tensions that are present in Greek/Turkey airspace and maritime zones as well as the island of Cyprus.
To the market...
Even in the face of the above issues, the stock market continues to rally. Last week it had more bad news in reports. The Housing Price Index (HPI) came in below expectation as well as the PMI. Nevertheless, the advance/decline line rose to 3-1. The Volatility Index (VIX) closed below its 200-day moving average. In addition, more stocks rose above their 50-day and 200-day moving average. Always keep in mind, especially in this low volume market that the ETFs will buy when it rises and sell when it declines. This accelerates the movement.
Sebastian's piece on gold is being fulfilled. Our Economic Evangelist got a following at the Bank of America. In a report by that bank, it stated, "if the market fall by 20%, which it did, it takes an average of 4-years for the economy to recover." Outlook is not good.
King Dollar is sinking like cement in water as foreign currencies like the EU, Yen and GBP gain strength. This is inflationary for the US.
Another unsolved problem: The president wants schools to open for Fall. Teachers are asking, "There is no money for PPE? How do we do social distancing? Then, there is this aspect. One in five teachers say that they will retire before they come back to the classroom in these conditions. The head of the union is talking strike.
More tit-for-tat...
After the US closed a Chinese consulate office in Houston, China closed one of our embassy offices in their nation.
Boeing took a loan out of the CARES Act. In Europe, an international airlines agency, the IATA said, "economic stimulus is needed, but without political strings. Things will be slow and hard for global airlines for quite a spell." Then, the EU passed a large stimulus relief package.
Free Fury
In some nice news, a sperm whale got entangled with an abandoned fishnet of the coast of Italy. Italian divers are working to free the animal from the net and save its life. Apparently, the whale realizes the good intent of the divers. In this good sequel to Free Willie, it acts as a reminder that the global community should do something worthwhile like a resolution to clean our oceans. It should not be used like it is as a toilet bowl for nations. Without clean water, we all die! We are seeing the effects in the seas in food chains. Instead of buying votes, both candidates should push a program as a national priority to have clean water as well as clean energy. We have the know how. We lack the resolve.
