Saturday, October 26, 2013

Party Spirits...Halloween Notes

I ran across this essay and you, dear reader might find it very interesting as it is about political party politics.

- "There cannot a greater judgment befall a country than such a dreadful spirit of division as sends a government into two distinct people, and makes them greater strangers and more averse to one another, than if they were actually two different nations. The effects of such division are pernicious to the last degree..., fatal both to men's morals and their understandings; it sinks the virtue of a nation, and not only so, but destroys even common sense.
A furious party spirit, when it rages in its full violence, exerts itself in civil war and bloodshed; and when it is under its greatest restraints, naturally breaks out is falsehood, detraction, calumny, and a partial administration of justice.
In a word, it fills a nation with spleen and rancor, and extinguishes all the seeds of a good-nature, compassion and humanity."

"The party spirit  is blind and headstrong; it never seeks truth; but with a mind made upon every subject, it seeks for facts and opinions that favor his premature judgment."
Yesterday & Today
The above notes were on the political climate of London in 1711 by Joseph Addison. His observations were revived in America in the 1790s as politics began to split the new republic into a two party system that did everything to oppose each other.
Sebastian wrote about the Democrats and Republicans in their present form.
- " Our democracy is just two organizations headed by self-serving  economic elitist who actually let lobbyist write legislation, however they seek popular support, but never act for popular sentiment."
Halloween Notes: This non-holiday party day is the second biggest economic affair, however the candy that kids go "trick or treating" for will soon be made in foreign ports because of lower prices in the commodities to package the product and lower labor. This is another sad story in outsourcing and it is reflected in last week's default by American Crystal Sugar of $46million. It should remind the Fed that even though you lowered interest rates, someone still has to purchase your product to create growth. End the Fed!

Monday, October 21, 2013

Fiat Outlook: Now and Future...L&C

This is the last piece on our fiat currency. Did I hear someone say, "yea!" Wise-guy.
On Wednesday the last day that would prevent a US default, a deal was reached to extend the debt on our deficits. Two things that I would like to point out. The government had officially ran out of money a month before and as I will show you, these bureaucratic clerks get paid to monkey the books. There is no truth concerning our debt and many other things related to government. Now, the first aspect which I find was all part of an undisclosed plan. Dear reader, October is historically the month that the stock market finds truth which is to say, stocks decline to a figure closer to there true value. Government leaders know this. By distracting our attention to the debt crisis, these leaders not only avoided a stock market decline, but they were able to generate a relief rally that saw the S&P break to a new record high even though the earnings have been tepid. Ben Bernanke is a master in controlling the herd in this aspect. He says, QE is going to end and the market declines on the news. Then, he says not for a couple of years to which, the market says all systems go and the herd buys.
The second point in the debt ceiling fiasco is this. When Congress last extended the US debt, it placed the figure at $16.7trillion. On Wednesday just prior to raising the debt figure, our debt had reached $16.9trillion. Where did the extra $200billion come from? This dear reader, this is an example of the corruption of our federal government. They took money from US funds like Social Security and Civil Service Retirement & Disability Fund to use as they pleased. What if things went wrong? I will speculate with an answer in the future outlook of this article.

Economic Slavery: When slavery was an economic institution, our government was democratic in name only and in reality an economic Aristocracy. Today, we are heading for economic slavery as fiat policies debase our standard of living to the point where there are equal number of citizens in poverty as in the middle class. We are still democratic in name, but economic elitist in nature.
- Sebastian

I have to break this section into two parts, the near-term and long-term.
In the near-term we will continue to see what we have experienced since 2008, which is low growth(2.39% increase average for the period) and higher debt(11% increase average for the period). The reason the herd continues to buy is because the Fed has done our corporations a great favor with low rates, however any and everyone who needed to refinance has done so. We will see very little bottom line improvement going forward. There was also the by-product of these low rates. The housing industry has benefited, but again, there will be very little improvement going forward. One major obstacle will be all the homes belonging to baby boomers entering the market as this generation dies off. Dear reader, this amounts to 73 million people and possibly 40 million more homes that will compete with new housing with an economy that begs for first time buyers.
The last beneficiary of the Fed's policy will be government debt when matured, to be rolled over into a lower rate. After this takes place, the debt clock to disaster will begin.
When you look around and see the big picture, there will be more than Detroit. If the federal government begins to cut back on state aid, you will see states entering foreclosure. When the rumors begin, we will have reached the end of the near-term and entering the long-term. As for the answer to what if the default happened, the government had a plan to which they were going to roll back the dates of maturity by hand and your money would be held until they could print more.
The first real problem will be the efforts of China to end the US dollar as the world currency. Since there is nothing to replace it, they will seek a compromise to form a new reserve with a basket of currencies which will gain support from all the other fiat central bankers. If and when this occurs, get your money out of banks and in cash. Get out of US bonds because the government well limit withdrawals and in fact, all banks will close for a period of time and you will not be able to use credit cards or checking accounts.
it will rise, then fall, rise again and then crash when the global community reaches a deal to form a new reserve currency.
I only pose one question. If this happens or something very similar, will any of the current leaders ask me, Harry Dent, John Williams, James Grant, et al. how to save the day? I seriously doubt it, but I hope that my book would get published before I die.
Liars and Crooks: the government received more money from Congress, but the real winners were government workers who will get paid for all the days they missed. A new form of a paid vacation. By the way, every time that the government shut down, all the workers were paid to not work each time.