Thursday, September 25, 2014

More $igns for Confirmation

The voices of descent are few and far in between on the visual media. I still maintain that the market is overvalued and up only due to the printing press of the Federal Reserve and at some point, the truth of the structural damages to our economy by both political parties and the Fed for the last fifty years will surface. The above statement does not mean that I am a bear all the time. I only stress that point at what I see as critical points, reflection points. These are times when if the correct changes were made to our economy we could recover. The deepening hole created by the above factors is fast coming to boiling point and another crisis will be on our economy and lives.
Two weeks ago, I revealed my deepest indicator which is the long-term up trend line of the Dow meeting the up trend from the market's low in 2009. One of these days I'll know how to "pin" a chart which will give you the visual. As for now, you can always go to Big and see for yourself. These two points are intersecting. This means the market will reveal its next move very shortly. Generally, a rising trend line that forms a triangle, such as we now have, results in a big downward movement. This is the first $-sign.
Second Opinion
There are other indicators to which they are signaling red flags which taking together with the above is a way that the market is telling you a change is in the air.
* Money is exiting from US equity funds. According to a report by Investment Company Institute, $32 billion from long-term stock mutual funds. This redemption can cause a chain reaction and $32 billion is a lot of money. Behind the scene short-term borrowing can hide the problem.
* Commerce Department released its latest info on durable goods. These are business orders for long lasting goods like commercial planes. It fell by a "record" 18.2% in August. The bulls will counter this report by reminding everyone that the previous release also was a "record" and up 22.5% in July. What they won't mention is the fact that orders fell an astonishing 74.3%. Try spinning that with some "Bull."
* According to a report by Bloomberg, 47% of NASDAQ stocks have declined 20% or more in the last 12 months. This is bear territory. In addition, the same ratio of declines effect the big board too. The number of stocks on the NYSE above their 200 day moving average is declining to almost half.
* Finally, and this is the second biggest indicator and red flag. The Barclays IShare 20 year Treasury Bond(TLT) has been flat since 2002 with the temporary spikes for the 2008 crisis. It has formed a head and shoulders pattern. The left neckline was set in July of 2011. The head or peak in July of 2012 and the right neckline in April of 2013. It gets worse because it is moving toward the right neckline and if it pierces it at around 120, rates will rise!
If nothing else, a correction will occur. The market has had short down moves only to rise to a new record highs, but when you play with fire, you eventually get burned. The above is fuel for the fire.
Maybe if it is a four alarm blaze, we can look to blame the real culprit, the Fed which I may remind you that money is the root of all evil. End the Fed!